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Charting The Bubble In Multiple Expansion

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The equity market has discounted a large portion of any improved outlook that the always-optimistic sell-side strategists believe is just around the corner. As Barclays notes, we have just witnessed the largest two-year expansion of P/E multiples since the late 90’s. This 'bubble' of optimism, sparked by a repressive Fed policy, combined with historical valuation metrics that are above their long-term averages, implies a correction and a period of consolidation is likely to plague the U.S. equity market during the first half of 2014.

 

Via Barclays,

The improved outlook is fully discounted in share prices... Given that historical valuation metrics are above their long-term averages it is difficult to make a case to the
contrary.

 

...and the largest two-year expansion of PE multiples since the late 90’s implies a correction and a period of consolidation is likely to plague the U.S. equity market during the first half of 2014.

 

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Sun, 09/29/2013 - 11:10 | 4003306 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

I wouldn't doubt if we don't blow out the '98 change and have a momo multiple before the end.

Bernanke put is still in effect, they cant taper significantly for a while.

into '14 or beyond

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 07:32 | 4003055 new game
new game's picture

Both the written Idiom and Money, per se, are measures of humanity. (to measure is a qualitative verbe).

Both have been weighed, measured and found wanting (Daniel)

The FedRes actions both under Greenspan, complicity with the Clinton/Bush Administrations and by open and public promotion of the Iraq invasion, and Bernanke's wealth transfer from productivity to the non-productive Banking System classes which can only be intended to support the continuity of the Project for the New American Century Policy (PNAC) of infinite mass Blood sacrifice, mass genocide and endless War. The Global Cull with a twist; the sweet taste of endless blood of humanity for the "neocons' aka Bolsheviks.

Here is "Economic Theory" in practise: blind utopian faith in obedience and political expediency for the desires of the Master Collective aka the Banking System; the true Ponzi schema. The FedRes below screams that it is superior, misunderstood and is doing things for the greater and noble good; your good, while adding more fuel to the fire, under the pan, where YOU sit in the water in a state of false belief, gullibility; betrayed and ready for the sacrifice; your sacrifice. 'Trust us, forgive us; we are fixing it for you and your security' but we can't tell you what we are doing because you are incapable of the high level mathematics in which we have been personally gifted by God'. (roll your eyes and scream out 'Oh, Lordy'. Mathematics are only uselful to describe what exists and not that which does not exist; it is all an imposed allusion by the deluded.)

Philadelphia Fed ‏@philadelphiafed45m

#Plosser: Just because markets like what we are doing now does not mean that it is the best thing in the long run. http:// ow.ly/mUQzK

 

The bottom-line is that the USA as we have known it as the great Light of Freedom and Liberty for all has been captured and is being destroyed from the inside; nothing new here. The final moments are already in play; you are now experiencing the Fall of Rome; today is the continuation of the 1917 Bolsehivek Revolution..

 

The Greatest declarations of humanity ever recorded in written history are contained Declaration of Independence, The Constitution of the United States of America, the Bill of Rights and their premable, essences and contributing intellectual correlations. It is the Supreme Law of the Constitutional Republic known as the United States of America,

 

The President of the USA today is said to be a Professor of Constitutional Law - if you believe that you will believe anything. The White House spokesman Mr. Carney is said to state that Snowden is not a "dissident". Obviously the White House is not only incompetent, obedient to its masters but also delusional. And it has been reported that the US has a secret Court that over-rules The Supreme Court, and is so secret that its finding in Law are kept as secret. Its victims are then found guilty and incarcerated, executued or assassinated without ever knowing why? A Constitutional Lawyer, I think not. Your President is merely a charlatan.

 

Is it not clear to you Americans that Your Government is intent on your total suppression? For non-Americans it is clear that your Government is also intent on Global Totalitarianism aka Global Communism; the banner of vile corrupted ideology carried by the demented and twisted pervert Bolshevik, Leon Trotsky, the hero of your embedded "neocons" that are clearly running the United States of America today? Note that before "Clit" Bill Clinton they were referred to by the Pentagon as the "F*&king Crazies". They still are!

 

Language is the measure and Government and all that hangs and feeds off it, have been found wanting. The Constitution of the USA has been shreaded, yet it still remains, a priori, the HIGHEST LAW of the LAND. There is nothing else but political expedience aided and abetted by the Institutional Economists and unelected bureaucrats and their out-of-control feral supporters that '... hate you for your Freedoms". The US Constitution allows for ALL Laws introduced by Congress, the Senate, the Supreme Court, the NSA Secret Court, and the President to be made null and void, a priori, when found to be not in compliance; Your Constitution is The Supreme Law of Your Land; your Nation.

 

The War now is of the individual against the "Collective". But there is a larger "collective" in the room (there always is) but this "collective" respects the individual and that is known as humanity; the creation of God.

 

"In Principle, God created the heavens and Earth." Genesis 1. This is the correct translation of the first line of Genesis 1, from the original /reconstructed Hebraic (Text written/constructed before ~2500 BCE in the original language of the ancient Egyptian sages. Make note, the original Hebrew was the official and sacred language of the Egyptian Temple. Make no mistake, truth always, a priori, survives time.

The bottom line

 

"Do you wish to know when that day is coming? Watch money. Money is the barometer of a society’s virtue. When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by Compulsion --
when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing --
when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors --
when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you --
when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming self-sacrifice --
you may know that your society is doomed. Money is so noble a medium that it does not compete with guns and it does not make terms with brutality. It will not permit a country to survive as half-property, half-loot."
-- Ayn Rand Author Atlas Shrugged, P. 385 (1957)

 

http://tinyurl.com/7n69quh

The FedRes role is to support the Government of the USA to conquer the World and to impose Global Communism. Economic Theory is nothing but a faith-based consensual politic agenda which justifies through expediency the rule of force and imposition by those with the guns. The institutional Economists are blind meal-ticket apologists of the priesthood who pay allegiance to those that protect their faith - whatever, that is; it is however not science; as nor is mathematics.

Money is the measure of integrity of the man and State; it has been measured and found wanting. The FedRes and its Economists need to face the Constitution in its orginal essence and format as well as face a Court of real Law founded in the Principles of Science (this does not infer academia).

The edifice that inhabits the former USA, and built out of ignorance must be overcome and you Americans whom we foreignors do not hate, yet envy for your Constitution and Freedoms, deplore you to use your Constitution to right your Nation again and rid yourselves of the disease that has taken possession of your Nation. The whole World is today dependant upon you.

Long Live: Assange, Manning, Snowden, Tice, Drake, Binney, et al < http://tinyurl.com/nhrfhjq >

Long Live: Humanity.

Long Live: Truth.

It is seen from the outside of the USA that the expectation and the practise is to lie. It has be-come the norm to lie.

Why then do you need Congress? Why do you need Courts?

Answer: The State needs nothing but guns, murder, genocide and incarceration. Today, the USA has become a State, not an empire. It is not Empire that fails: it is the State that fails as it is a parasite that always kills its host.

References: Rothbard - v. Mises - v Hanyek, et al.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 09:37 | 4003159 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

new game...i truly love all 3 of your post....but dont you realize that we are ..."ready for some football"...so the revolution will have to wait...

on a serious note i (we?) admire the people of greece , turkey, egypt et. als for having the balls to put their life on the line and hit the streets...sadly, it will never happen here in the obesse, uninformed, non-educated streets of the good ole usa....

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 07:41 | 4003061 new game
new game's picture

do not take your eye off the ball. ie small arms treaty - untied nations sp correct...

A LITTLE GUN HISTORY
In 1929, the Soviet Union established gun control. From 1929 to 1953, about 20 million dissidents, unable to defend themselves, were rounded up and exterminated.
------------------------------

In 1911, Turkey established gun control. From 1915 to 1917, 1.5 million Armenians, unable to defend themselves, were rounded up and exterminated.
------------------------------

Germany established gun control in 1938 and from 1939 to 1945, a total of 13 million Jews and others who were unable to defend themselves were rounded up and exterminated.
------------------------------

China established gun control in 1935. From 1948 to 1952, 20 million political dissidents, unable to defend themselves, were rounded up and exterminated
------------------------------

Guatemala established gun control in 1964. From 1964 to 1981, 100,000 Mayan Indians, unable to defend themselves, were rounded up and exterminated.
---- ------------- -------------

Uganda established gun control in 1970. From 1971 to 1979, 300,000 Christians, unable to defend themselves, were rounded up and exterminated.
------------------------------

Cambodia established gun control in 1956. From 1975 to 1977, one million educated people, unable to defend themselves, were rounded up and exterminated.
-----------------------------
Defenseless people rounded up and exterminated in the 20th Century because of gun control: 56 million.
------------------------------
It has now been 12 months since gun owners in Australia were forced by new law to surrender 640,381 personal firearms to be destroyed by their own Government, a program costing Australia taxpayers more than $500 million dollars. The first year results are now in:
Read this List of 7 items that you must know:

Australia-wide, homicides are up 3.2 percent.

Australia-wide, assaults are up 8.6 percent.

Australia-wide, armed robberies are up 44 percent (yes, 44 percent)!

In the state of Victoria alone, homicides with firearms are now up 300 percent. Note that while the law-abiding citizens turned them in, the criminals did not, and criminals still possess their guns!

While figures over the previous 25 years showed a steady decrease in armed robbery with firearms, this has changed drastically upward in the past 12 months, since criminals now are guaranteed that their prey is unarmed.

There has also been a dramatic increase in break-ins and assaults of the ELDERLY. Australian politicians are at a loss to explain how public safety has decreased, after such monumental effort, and expense was expended in successfully ridding Australian society of guns. The Australian experience and the other historical facts above prove it.

You won't see this data on the US evening news, or hear politicians disseminating this information.

Guns in the hands of honest citizens save lives and property and, yes, gun-control laws adversely affect only the law-abiding citizens.

Take note my fellow Americans, before it's too late!

The next time someone talks in favor of gun control, please remind them of this history lesson.

With guns, we are 'citizens'. Without them, we are 'subjects'.

During WWII the Japanese decided not to invade America because they knew most Americans were ARMED!

If you value your freedom, please spread this anti-gun control message to all of your friends.

The purpose of fighting is to win. There is no possible victory in defense. The sword is more important than the shield, and skill is more important than either. The final weapon is the brain. All else is supplemental.
SWITZERLAND ISSUES EVERY HOUSEHOLD A GUN! SWITZERLAND'S GOVERNMENT TRAINS EVERY ADULT THEY ISSUE A RIFLE. SWITZERLAND HAS THE LOWEST GUN RELATED CRIME RATE OF ANY CIVILIZED COUNTRY IN THE WORLD!!! IT'S A NO BRAINER! DON'T LET OUR GOVERNMENT WASTE MILLIONS OF OUR TAX DOLLARS IN AN EFFORT TO MAKE ALL LAW ABIDING CITIZENS AN EASY TARGET.

I'm a firm believer in the 2nd Amendment! If you are too, please forward this Web Address to Everyone you Know.
The Experts who pushed Gun Control. Hitler, Castro, Qaddafi, Stalin, Idi Amin, Mao Tse-Tung, Plo Pot, Kim Jong-il
-------------------------
Any means justifies the end and Obama means to disarm the American citizen.

Once this is accomplished, the fun starts.

You think you fear your government now, wait. They haven't even started in yet and won't until they disarm us.

The ONLY THING standing between this corrupt New World Order and us, the common law abiding person is our guns.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 07:42 | 4003063 new game
new game's picture

and for those that feel deceived...

Familiarity, the first myth of reality: What you know the best, you observe the least.

Devotion, the second myth of reality: The faithful are most hurt by the objects of their faith.

Conviction, the third myth of reality: Only those who seek the truth can be deceived.

Fellowship, the fourth myth of reality: As the tides of war shift, so do loyalties.

Trust, the fifth myth of reality: Every truth holds the seed of betrayal.

-Magic, The Gathering

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 07:45 | 4003067 new game
new game's picture

after all the hope and suffering...

real money....

Gold & Fiat Currency

Over the last few months I’ve tried to nail-down an underlying reality, a meaning, the ‘nature’, of both physical Gold and Fiat Currencies. Neither are obvious to the average person, and there are many, many versions as to what they both are, depending upon which camp you are in (Trader, Economist, Politician, PM Bug, Investor, Mum & Dad, Business Owner, Banker, Wanker, Central Planner etc-etc).

My reasoning for trying to identify this is simple; I have not been overly comfortable with what the majority of people on this forum, as well as other sectors, have declared them to be.

Not knowing the true nature of Gold and Currencies manifests into a failure to understand the relationships both have in the real world. Add to that a deficiency in understanding them as a financial tool and/or investment.

I would like to share with you what I’ve come up with…and I’ve kept them simple.

CAVEAT: I refer to currencies in a general sense, not one in particular, and not one in relation to the another. I do not refer to any Gold Derivatives.

Fiat Currencies are Derivatives
Since the abolition of the Gold Standard, Fiat Currencies have become a Derivative; as they are traded in the open market they point to an economy of origin, they point to that country’s Bond and Treasury Bills, and they point to the ‘Balance Sheet’ of that country’s Central Bank. Destroy the Bonds, Treasuries, Economy or Balance Sheet and you destroy the Fiat Currency as well. This was not necessarily the case when Currencies were backed by Gold and/or conformed to a Gold Standard, as the underlying value was preserved within the physical Gold…Currencies were indeed a ‘Claim Cheque’.

Gold has two lives (Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde); it spends most of its live as perpetual Commodity, but every now and then it becomes ‘Flux Money’. We all know its Dr Jekyll manifestation as a metal and traded commodity, so there’s no need to elaborate on that. In its Mr Hyde manifestation (Flux Money) it phases in and out of favour throughout history under certain conditions. When things are going well Gold is almost hated for its lack of return performance and cost of storage, but when things deteriorate, that's when Gold comes out of psychological hiding. When wealth moves into Gold for safety, by virtue of its demand, it becomes the vessel of choice. Once this starts to happen, a bottle-neck appears as more and more wealth converges upon a finite Gold supply. Demand forces the value of Gold upward and this is precisely when Gold recaptures its reputation and all of the ill feelings as a non-returning commodity are forgiven. I believe the reason Gold has this ability, this power, is simple; it’s etched into the psyche of every society since every society has historically been through dark times. Also, as the saying goes “there no such thing as an atheist in a fox hole”, well, there’s no such thing as a Paper Bug in a [global] Collapse, whether that be Deflation, hyperinflation or societal.

In simple terms, Currencies are derivatives which relate to the modern economy, and Gold is both a permanent commodity and occasional safe storage.

If you can relate to this, then you can proceed with the $64,000 question; where are Currencies going and where is Gold going?

So really, the answer to this question – since currencies are a derivative – relates directly to the actions of Central Banks, Government Treasuries, and Global Consumers.

And what are we seeing? Central Bank balance sheet expansion, Government Treasury Ponzi schemes, and a protracted contraction of Global Consumption.

If you believe Central Banks will keep printing, Governments will keep Deficit Spending, and Global Consumers are on the edge, then Gold will come out of flux and solidify back into money once again.

These who defy their intuition, those who defy the psyche of the market, will burn in a paper bonfire, should the current path be defended and this erosion continue.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 09:37 | 4003158 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

A fiat currency is nothing new and nothing even resembling a derivative. See von Mises- Theory of Money and Credit.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 09:06 | 4003136 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

The fed now has the cover thanks to the debt ceiling debacle to not taper but DOUBLE up on QE in October...  After a temporary downdraft monday or so, this thing will go hyperbolic shortly, followed at some point by the ballistic re-entry trajectory.

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