Blast From The Past: "The 1999 Boom With No Bust" Edition

Tyler Durden's picture

It's never different this time. All too often we forget (whether by choice or happenstance) what occurred in the past - missing the lessons from history and, perhaps in an effort to deny the reality, maintaining the status quo that cradles us so warmly every night. In an effort to bring back some of that "memory" - and dispel the inevitable recency bias (and cognitive dissonance) as even the Fed is admitting markets are frothy, we bring you 1999's CNN Special "The New Economy - Boom Without End."

A brief clip from the archives full of internet dreams, globalization hopes, growth without inflation, and most importantly productivity gains. It seems we weren't that far off 14 years ago as Ed Yardeni notes, the internet is an inherently price-deflating animal (in its global competition exposing ways) which means - for firms to maintain profits (and stock prices), they must increase productivity... or in the modern parlance cut costs and lay off workers. "The economy has changed for good..." sums up the 'it's different this time' view of the 90s bubble.


Stephen Roach notes at the time - "if we are not in a new economy and the 'old rules' come into play from time to time, then much of what has happened in the 1990s will ultimately be challenged." Indeed Stephen...

Must watch...


And here's the "productivity" gains they discuss...





(h/t @Ryknow16)

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New_Meat's picture

lim {productivity->inf} = nobody needs to work.

yep, it is different this time.

- Ned

VD's picture

and how many scoffed at gold in 1999? compare that to indices from the above CNN 'report'. 

seek's picture

Practically everyone at that time scoffed at gold except some Y2K preppers and hardcore fiat skeptics / conspiracy theorists.

In 1998 I bought a modest chunk of gold (that subsequently sank in a tragic boating accident.) In 2008 I did ended up doing business with the same dealer when I was having trouble obtaining it from other sources, and he remembered me (and that 1998 order) and laughed, telling me that I bought at a time when "we couldn't give the shit away" [in '98] and congratulating me for buying the low. Apparently my fairly modest purchase in 1998 was one of his largest sales that year. Times change.

CPL's picture

The stock certificates from have kept their value in warmth by lining my hobo cloak with it.  On tuesdays it's Nortel foot wear day.

Seer's picture

Thanks for the chuckle!

CPL's picture

You mean where is all that bad debt going to go?  No where.  No one was going pay it off anyways and it did go off six years ago in 2007. 

Everything around us all right now is the slow moving train wreck.  Economies don't 'vanish' overnight.  They get severely beaten up then put on life support until everyone understands that they aren't getting anything for the offer.  We all can all see the governments of the world trying to goad people into going crazy by seizing their accounts/printing money/fucking with PM prices.  But it's not working as planned.  Not even remotely close.  LOL! 

People that do their own business, have skin in the game and actually provide a service OR a customer really needs something.  All these folks are already adapting to all these changes.  The world doesn't stay still because a man in a suit says it does.  Business still happens.  Couples fall in love.  The Sun rises and sets.    The business being done is more hussle and flow, less paying peter to pay Paul, cash in hand.  And of course; stash, gas or ass. 

Those campy phrases are, contrary to popular mislabeling, economic transactions.  And there isn't a single person on the planet that doesn't know what they are.  Neat huh?

Instant local back up economic systems that everyone learned growing up by need and trade on playgrounds.  It's not perfect, but it's alot more equitable than the current offer; and is dependent on need and merit.  And really, really, really hard to track or tax.


Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Ahhhh.... The grey market economy. Where everyone who is "unemployed" works. Ass, grass, or gas baby!


fockewulf190's picture

I heard that Ming the Merciless: Upcoming Ruler of New Earth is in production right now. Don't count on Buck and his girfriend to save the day though. His sorry ass didn't stack, and his girlfriend ended up joining Ming's brothel for a secure job. Should be out soon after the Great Reset begins.

CPL's picture

A man just can't be completely whole without a lair, machines full of randomly blinking lights and space hookers.  I think we all get that deep down...

VD's picture

good move seek! you were one of the prescient ones for sure. 

seek's picture

Strangely enough it was my exposure to one of those fiat conspiracy theorists that resulted in the purchase. He had set out his argument on the radio, challenged someone to fact-check it, I did and had a "holy fuck" moment and started making tinfoil hats.

I still don't think we've even seen 10% of what will eventually occur yet, but it's been very odd (and scary) to see it unfold as it has.

VD's picture

agreed. i read your below comments and i think there will be major correction in Oct. my narrative is that it is the non-taper letting out steam event that leads to more QE, without the Fed explicitly causing the correction with their (taper) present term policy. it'll be a real shitshow heading into December. but that's just my crystal ballz...

Pig Circus's picture

i think there will be major correction in Oct.

Down 6 of 7 and this after the Fed gave these Psyco, ballwashing Cocksukers everything they wanted and then some.

Could the psychology be changing? Who the fuck knows.

TeamDepends's picture

Markets about to open in Oceania.  Don't know about you, but we simply can not wait any longer to see how barbaric relics do out of the gate.  Let the roller-coaster begin!

lewy14's picture

But in that same limit, money dies. Capital dies.

That's where the whole "no bust" thing falls apart.

kralizec's picture

Obviously the lesson here is to maximize profits by reducing employment...just think of the wealth created once all employees have been eliminated!


The stupid works both ways!

ToNYC's picture

Bring back Chauncey Gardener!

TeamDepends's picture

Doctor Allenby: This won't hurt a bit.

[Sticks Chance with a needle]

Chance the Gardener: It did hurt.

xamax's picture


The other day, Kotcharloka said they will do " whatever it takes".
Why should I be worried?????

Racer's picture

Gordon Brown "An end to boom and bust"

as he sold UK's gold at the lows

logicalman's picture

Them banks had to be saved!

knukles's picture

Yeah. Gordon Brown was a Labour PM and Oblahbombah's a Democrat and their policies have nothing in common, so it must be different this time around. 

(need I add the sarc as neither were community organizers, central planners, big government idealists of friends of the financial community)

Barry Lincoln's picture

Those kids got one thing right, they'll be billionaires soon enough. 

Pure Evil's picture

That's nothin'.

Those people are very limited in their greed.

Zimbabweans are already Quadrillionaires.

Try to remember, "Greed is Good".

I plan on being the first Googolplexianaire.

fockewulf190's picture

Jaime Dimon will still be richer than you.

DOGGONE's picture

The Dow peaked January 2000!
For a calendar month average, the Dow has NOT YET gotten back to that level.

DOGGONE's picture

You should like this ...
And I hope your efforts are more effective than mine seem to be!

NDXTrader's picture

The Fed wasn't creating $85 billion a month then. Stocks are priced in dollars. An asteroid could hit the earth tomorrow and if Bernanke rolled off Yellen and hit a button the market would be up 500 points. Just go long until they can't print anymore and then use that money to go short for the collapse

seek's picture

Timing that particular long/short trade will kill 99% of those who attempt it.

By the time you know you need to go short the markets will be closed and the dollar will have collapsed a few days later.

I'll stick with patience and hard assets.

NDXTrader's picture

Totally understood. One of two options. You either stay long and hope you can get out or get metal. But the oh hey lets go short these money printers shit has to stop

Seer's picture

Your solution/angle, while I'm in concurrence with the desired outcome, leaves a bit to be desired.  Perhaps when one has a hammer then everything's a nail? (username seems to indicate a preference for trading in the market)

Only sure-fire way is to remove your energies from the System.  Why wait when it's going to be an eventual reality?  Yeah, sometimes one feels the need to stare directly at a train-wreck, but I'm thinking that this isn't one of those times.

Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Exactly. Trading 'it' (the game, the market, momentum chasing the Fed, etc) with leverage is what they want you to do.  Swim with sharks.  Their insiders will react first (faster and in larger quantity) every time, and if they can't force you to sell, they can still whipsaw you so bad (esp if you are on margin) that you have no choice but to buy high and sell low!

Buy gold, and don't sell.  Wait until it can literally be exchanged for a new currency. 

NDXTrader's picture

You're exactly right long term. Short term it's good to go long and use the profits to buy real assets. This beast isn't getting killed anytime soon

Skateboarder's picture

My thoughts exactly. All but a few who try to time that and pull it off will end up on their arse, and those who succed will do out of sheer luck. The overall shift will be quite instantaneous in the algorithmic realm. The markets will go offline quite fast as a result, and humans won't have a chance to short.

thereisonlyonelaw's picture

September, 2015. However, what exactly will be left standing is difficult to know. Going short is nothing more than borrowing and all trade is done in pairs; your profit depends on what you are going long just as much as what you are going short. Will the dollar be king again, or will the next crash collapse it? I can't say. There is no "Dow", there is only Dow/USD. I'm not sure if it's better to go long or short on that trade in the event of a collapse.

Bam_Man's picture

And the sheeple are so much dumber and easier to fool today than they were in 1999.

seek's picture

I disagree. I don't think there's been a time in my life where people have been more skeptical and distrusting of authority, and that skepticism and distrust is growing rapidly.

Back in 1999 you could do an internet IPO of virtually anything and people would buy it, regardless of business plan or expected profitability. Remember the insanity of the CueCat, sending free hardware to as many households in the US as the could?

The difference between today and 1999 is that the TPTB are doing stuff out in the open that they wouldn't have dared tried in 1999, thanks to the power free-for-all created by 9/11. But trust me, the rank and file out there know they're being lied to and screwed on a daily basis, and honest polling numbers reveal this clearly.

Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

CueCat! Barcode scanners for home coupons and URL's! It was the beta of the QR code, before cameras and cell phones were fucking, and had halfling offspring. I'm worried my Ipad might finger fuck a fax machine, and we'll end up with an image transmitter....

yogibear's picture

The new economy is called central bank printing. It works until it doesn't.

Once the US looses it's reserve currency status it's when their game is over. The Fed will keep printing and the US will keep increasing it's debt limit.

Japan is the US Federal Reserve's great Keynesian printing experiment. 

logicalman's picture

I can't even imagine trying to trade anything in the markets as they exist today.

You would need a high-end crystal ball that told you what TPTB have cooked up for the day and what the algos are doing on a millisecond basis - even then you'd need a lot of luck if you are not one of the 'chosen/connected' (read criminals).

Try to reduce what the bastards steal from you and go with hard assets would seem to be a better bet.

NDXTrader's picture

Why? The markets have been simple for the last 5 years. Go long...they are going to print money..:its the only option they have left. Wait for "scary" events and buy all you can. This shit is priced in fiat currency for awhile at least

NDXTrader's picture

Can you imagine all of the fiat currency you could have to buy depressed real assets if you had night every dip since the currency printing started? Use their game against them. When the reset happens you'll know it. Until then buy every dip and use the profits to buy tangible stuff

Seer's picture

"I can't even imagine trying to trade anything in the markets as they exist today."

Nothing has changed except the speed and depth of deception! (and if one were to look at this through the eyes of a benevolent Fed, not saying they are, but for argument sakes play along, one could see how tough it could be for the Fed to even come close to refereeing a neutral playing field [they're probably doling out some info to the biggies, as though this would ever have been different, but doing so with "pictures" (if those biggies fuck up and cause a disturbance then they're going down, a la Lehmans)].

You indirectly operate in the "markets" every day, if, that is, you transact with commercial enterprises.

No one has EVER known the future (well, the short-to-midterm one).  And peons like you and I have absolutely no way of significantly capitalizing on trends/changes because we don't have enough to have any influence (and, really, given some of the questionable thinking that goes on here I'm pretty glad that that's the case).

One either looks to support something based on what someone believes in, or, they are looking to GAMBLE, to profit off of someone else's loss.

"Try to reduce what the bastards steal from you and go with hard assets would seem to be a better bet."  Duh!

thereisonlyonelaw's picture

Trading is nothing but risk arbitrage. The rule is simple: buy low, sell high. You don't need a crystal ball, you just need good money management. The more volatility and the more irrational that volatility, the better.

Seer's picture

They have to wonder whether growth is sustainable?

Can SOMEONE just stop such discussions right fucking there and ask the simple question: how CAN perpetual growth on a finite planet be possible? (prepare to back up with some actual/facts/math/models)

thereisonlyonelaw's picture

I can answer that.

1. While the planet is finite, it is also really fucking huge. The physical limits of "economic growth" on this planet are still far away.

2. Virtual technology. All goods are simply a means to create an experience. Their value is the value we give to those experiences. Experiences can be simulated. With proper technology, every man, woman and child could live in their own private virtual planet.

3. There are other planets.

Skateboarder's picture

You do realize that half the world barely has anything to eat.