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Marc Faber Warns "We Have Reached The Endgame Of Monetary Policy"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"One day this whole credit bubble will be deflated very badly - you are going to experience a complete implosion of all asset prices and the credit system..."

Via South China Morning Post,

Marc Faber was in fine form at the CLSA Investor Forum, dispensing his trademark gloom and doom. The final keynote was a tour de force of the history of debt, asset bubbles and financial markets in the 20th and 21st centuries.

"Unlike the '50s and '70s when there was relatively less overall debt, a financial market crash did not inflict great damage on the economy.

 

Debt levels are significantly higher these days, and so a market crash can inflict serious damage on economies.

 

We've gone through a period of huge asset inflation, in stocks, bonds, commodities, and real estate, and we essentially now have in the world, a huge asset bubble.

 

So everything is grossly inflated."

In addition there has since 2007 been:

"colossal asset inflation" in high-end goods...

In thinking about what the next big bubble will be, Faber said:

"The problem is I believe you and I are the bubble... the financial system is just too big, that is the problem.

 

Maybe we can't see where the next bubble is because we are the bubble - that is something to consider."

Faber thought economists should distinguish between economic growth where credit grows at the same rate as the economy, which he believes is sound compared with a situation where credit grows faster than the economy. Credit used in capital formation is more beneficial to an economy than if used for consumption, as is the case in the US.

"One day this whole credit bubble will be deflated very badly - you are going to experience a complete implosion of all asset prices and the credit system - but as to when -I don't know."

Advanced sign of the cracks in the system are already evident. A dollar of additional credit in the system created significant economic growth, but these days an additional dollar has very little impact.

"That is a sign that we have reached the end of monetary policy."

Another indication is when the US government has to issue treasuries to pay the interest on its maturing debt.

"That will be the end game - then you are dealing with a collapse in the currency."

 

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Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:31 | 4004189 King_of_simpletons
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Bernanke will fix this by raising QE to $ 100 Billion a month. Just you watch the maestro do his magic.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:35 | 4004196 Eisenhorn
Eisenhorn's picture

CTRL+P to infinity AND BEYOND!

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:36 | 4004202 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Somebody's gotta give Japan and China a run for their money.

If not us, then whom, if not now, then when?

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:39 | 4004203 ratso
ratso's picture

Farber only has one note - the sky is falling.  Give me a break pleeeaasse.  Haven't we heard that crap just toooooo often about everything.  Get a new script Farber.  You are boring us senseless.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:42 | 4004218 Nothing but the...
Nothing but the truth.'s picture

So you disagree with the mans outlook ?

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:43 | 4004224 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Who the hell is Farber?

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:52 | 4004238 Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

Dr Strangelove

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:18 | 4004290 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Peter Schiff with an Austrian accent. 

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:42 | 4004332 flacon
flacon's picture

FABER: "So everything is grossly inflated.""

 

So are his words grossly inflated too? It's impossible to have EVERYTHING inflated because there are two sides to every trade. Someone is short and someone is long. 

 

The winning trade was to buy puts December 30th on the Ultra VIX. Down from $300 to just $30 - a 90% loss. 

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 23:40 | 4004689 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

"All generalizations are grossly inflated;"

"including this one..."

 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 02:58 | 4004741 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

What the hell...we're already at the point where the United States, as well as most developed debtor nations (and god only knows how bad things really are in the opaque BRIC "miracle" emergent economies), are issuing treasury notes to pay the interest on the national debt.

If anything, Faber may be UNDERSTATING how bad things truly are at present.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 03:02 | 4004815 Lost My Shorts
Lost My Shorts's picture

Yes, but he is also the proverbial stopped clock, who always says the same thing and is only right at long intervals.

The Raiders are going to win the super bowl.  It's only a matter of time.  See, I can make accurate predictons too.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 06:45 | 4004867 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Time to get some gold and ride out that last fiscal wave.

 

Jamb a stick in the CTRL-P button and slip out the back before the damn thing blows.

 

The last thing getting bailed-in will be my sock drawer.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:32 | 4005021 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Faber is like the old saw about Marxists: they've predicted 12 out of the last 3 recessions correctly.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 19:26 | 4007509 MeelionDollerBogus
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I suspect the muppets may even be catching on to this bubble in bonds. Getting all suspicious-like.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:39 | 4004339 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

and a sense of humor.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 21:52 | 4004504 grgy
grgy's picture

Peter Schiff with a Swiss (German) accent.  There, fixed it for ya.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 05:41 | 4004869 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Why do the really smart people always talk so funny?

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:22 | 4004291 flacon
flacon's picture

The problem with the Austrians, like Faber, Schiff, etc. is that they are right and will win the war, but there are many, many battles still to be waged which they will lose. 

 

If you doubt me, just look at the price of gold or the price of the Dow / S&P. Austrians continue to lose the smaller battles, but in the end they will win the war. 

 

In the meantime most ordinary folk like you and me will lose our jobs, have to sell our gold to survive and end up poor.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:22 | 4004299 Arius
Arius's picture

exactly.  in the long run we are all dead ...

or ZH"s on a long enough timeline the survival rate drops to zero

 

or market remains irrational longer than you are solvent

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:23 | 4004303 flacon
flacon's picture

Thanks for reminding me. It's always good to think about the long run. 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 05:42 | 4004870 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Never overlook the short run.....it can be a real killer.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 21:24 | 4004429 JR
JR's picture

But in the short run, we're alive.

And America is moving at lightning speed in the wrong direction.

The debt isn’t just bigger; the Fed balance sheet isn’t just larger; the Congress and the President aren’t just a little out of touch: the numbers are historically astronomical.

A ll are out of control. The equity markets have priced in excessive stimulation for the next several years. When a hammer falls and this ends suddenly, the markets will not just drift lower; they will torpedo to the bottom, perhaps with greater intensity than ever seen before.

All of them, the Bernankes, the Dimons and Blankfeins, the Fed’s multibillionaire dollar friends, the Congress, the government bureaucrats and the President, don’t produce anything. They are a giant sponge on American labor and production. They jump in where they are not asked, needed nor wanted. And, now, they've eaten the seed corn.

It’s a fight for or against the bankers who produce nothing but extract the value from the nation’s wages and pensions and savings and Social Security and insurance payouts by watering down their value with QE and debt. Pelosi covers their tracks on one hand by saying Congress can’t cut anything and on the other by saying there’s nothing left in the cupboard. She and her cohorts are despicable. What these sellouts to the bankers are saying to hardworking Americans is:

“How much did you make? Send it in.”

As Greenspan once explained: The “shabby secret” of paper money is that deficit spending and currency debasement are simply nothing more than a “scheme for the hidden confiscation of wealth.”

It’s time to say NO to this Fed-controlled government.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 21:53 | 4004508 artless
artless's picture

Fine then. I agree with your statements and believe that until the Blankfeins, Dimons, and Bernankes are frogged marched off to prison nothing will change all that much. Indeed nothing much will change even if that happens wet dream that it is.

Most of the world is just fine saying no to all pf this. But what exactly are you or anyone else actually going to DO about it?

Do not take this as a personal attack ( I do not know you obviously and have no idea your situation) but I wager the answer is nothing. You (and I'm using "you" as a stand in for the average American) have a couple kids, a 401K perhaps, a job with that oh so important benefit package, a mortgage (and the ever so important deduction), car payments, a mother-in-law in a retirement community, and shit naybe even some colege debt that still sin't paid off. You're all in. You've bought the American Dream farm of lies and bullshit and there's no way out without hurting everyone around you. What are you going to do?

Nothing. I do not hold it against anyone if in such a scenario. I understand it.

But then after that you're gonna line up in droves and vote for the next bunch of criminal psychopaths to take the reigns of the Plantation that is The United Socio-Fascist States of Amerika in the HOPE that something will CHANGE.

THAT I do hold against "you" and will never understand.

If you were born any time after 1960 and did not GROW UP KNOWING that the whole thing was just a fucking ruse then you are blind.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 22:27 | 4004578 JR
JR's picture

There comes a time for all Americans when a bureaucracy transitions into a quasi-police state and people of good will be forced to fight for their country or face internment, execution, property confiscations, and worse.

I can tell you that I will fight rather than consent to this Stalinesque progression and I believe millions of others will fight as well… because 401(k)s, jobs, retirements, assisted living accommodations and relationships of all kinds will have no meaning if the fabric of this nation is to be lost.

All of our priorities will change and if our continued efforts to turn the tide in the political direction of this country are unsuccessful, then we must fight, and you will as well, I know.

ZH already is in the field; it is a fight club.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 22:39 | 4004599 sgorem
sgorem's picture

thanx +1000

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 23:18 | 4004659 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Trying to hold people accountable in the US gov't has been difficult, if not downright impossible.

Help send a message to Chilton and the CFTC that we're sick of their corruption and lies. Pitchforks and torches are next.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/bart-chilton-resign-and-become-a-whistleblo...

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 02:35 | 4004801 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

We can all try to avoid (not evade) paying taxes as much as possible. Live within our means. Stay away from the stock market casino. Bank with local credit unions or small banks. Self insure medical. Vote out all incumbants. call, fax or write your representatives on a daily basis until they get it. 

STARVE THE BEAST & SPEED UP THE GREAT RESET.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 03:17 | 4004825 Captain Benny
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You're missing the point.  You should not bank with anyone except yourself.  Holding a digitized debt obligation known as a Federal Reserve Note is still just that... its all effectively part of the one big bad bank.  Either you're in or you're out.... banking with JPM is no different than banking with Name Your State Credit Union.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 04:41 | 4004850 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Feel free to modify as you like. PM's are of course the gold standard (pan intended). Banking with JPM is actually different than small banks as you starve JPM leverage.

Banks also convert your on demand accounts to savings accounts without you knowing thus, increasing leverage. 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 07:38 | 4004933 Help Is Not Coming
Help Is Not Coming's picture

Well you could bank with JPM and then exercise your legal remedy under 12USC411 and redeem your Federal Reserve Notes for lawful money. This would deny JPM the ability to fractional reserve lend against your money. However, given that JPM already so flagrantly flaunts the law and breaks it routinely, I doubt seriously that they would abide by 12USC411 and just ignore it like they ignore every other legal requirement around finance and banking.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:47 | 4005069 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Tell us where you work in the US that you aren't paid in dollars (most likely via direct deposit).

The "more prepper than thou" routine is less useful than people fighting back in whatever way is reasonable for them. If they're denying JPM dry powder to influence PMs, they're helping; you're not.

 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 03:09 | 4004818 Lost My Shorts
Lost My Shorts's picture

Can't say about you personally, but 95% who talk like you just vote the republican party lever, which does nearly nothing to address the problems you raise.  Lindsay Graham is your daddy.  The reason most of this talk leads to nothing is because it is nothing.  I hope you are different, but how will you convince your republican friends, or make common cause with fellow citizens who aren't exactly like you?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 04:46 | 4004853 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

This fight is irrespective of party affiliations. Don't make it so.

Congress as a whole is a bunch of hores of all kinds.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:33 | 4005186 Lost My Shorts
Lost My Shorts's picture

Maybe it "should be" but it definitely not "is" irrespective of party affiliations.  Most people, including on ZH, hate people different from themselves more than they hate the goverment.  The elites know that, and they play people easily that way.  In the end, people always side with the government against people different from themselves.  Divide and conquer is ancient wisdom for a reason.

There is so much preaching to the choir on ZH.  Usually one just yawns.  But every so often I get the urge to say, hey pal, why waste your time preaching to the choir?  Why not do something that would make a difference?  Do you even kinow what would make a difference?

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 23:19 | 4004660 drunkenlout
drunkenlout's picture

Thanks, artless, for describing me with the tyranny of averages.  I don't have a couple kids;  correct answer is zero.  I no longer have a 401 k, I don't have a job with a benefit package.  No car payments, no living mother-in-law, nor FOL.  No college debt, nor any other debt.

I do have some assets, which are entirely unencumbered.  It's OK if you want to be pissed off at the abstract me, whom you have described bass-ackwards.  It's even OK to challenge me on what am I doing about it.  The answer is what I have done.  What are your recomendations?

 

 

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 23:41 | 4004692 Herodotus
Herodotus's picture

Who will rid us of this troublesome priest?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 04:39 | 4004849 Sorynn
Sorynn's picture

More and more people are collapsing before the market.

I was completely unaware until 2011.  Running my own business lead me to seeking out alternate media sources, because the stories on the MSM made no sense.  That lead me to ZH, Chris Duane, Chris Martenson JMG and others...

2012... Accounting and Finance job - outsourced, business doors - shuttered, house - handed back to the bank, family - almost divorced and split from the boys.

2013... For the last year, I have worked in consulting roles, and I probably will for some time.  I do not have many assets anymore, but I have some that are physical, and I am having great fun learning practical skills (Organic Gardening and soil generation, permaculture techniques, soap making, canning, BJJ, Judo, Escrima and playing guitar) and working in the cash economy.  Crash or not, I am moving back towards family, pooling resources and working to make each other more secure and happy in our own ways. 

HH or someone here is long black markets and his tribe... So am I.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 01:19 | 4004762 mt paul
mt paul's picture

on a long enough timeline

every thing is worth nothing ...

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:39 | 4004331 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

5 acres, shelter, a cow and some chickens are the best insurance against having to sell your gold to survive...

Not that this is any earth shattering revelation around here... but it helps me sleep at night knowing my stack is the absolute last thing I will part with and it won't be until I choose to do it.  Period.  End of story.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 21:48 | 4004450 D-liverSil-ver
D-liverSil-ver's picture

Add some non-GMO non-Hybrid seed or you will only be able grow that 5 acres for one year.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 22:27 | 4004575 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

This non-GMO you speak of, is it better than GMO? Please enlighten me, I live in the midwest where it's all corn and soybeans, cattle and hogs. I don't think they use any of that GMO stuff here?

Wait, what???

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 06:54 | 4004887 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> Add some non-GMO non-Hybrid seed

You could save a sack full of words and just say heirloom.  And I'd bet 99% of the folks who have taken the time to start gardening already know about heirloom vs hybrid seeds.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 07:57 | 4004957 whirling tword ...
whirling tword freedom's picture

Wouldn't hurt to have supplies to build a still and have  some sugar and yeast around..... just in case.  lol.... Somebody will have to make it.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 21:37 | 4004464 TheMeatTrapper
TheMeatTrapper's picture

@BoNeSxxx

 

You are absolutely correct. Get debt free, learn to catch, shoot and grow food. Walk a lot and stay in shape. Learn to make something that other people need. Stack for your kids with the idea that your stack doesn't exist - it's a birthright for the next generation. 

That's my outlook. I trap more meat than my family can eat, and I sell the fur. A $5 trap will put meat on the table for years and years. Funny how the $5 trap used to cost $1.75. 

Learn To Trap Now!

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 22:28 | 4004580 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Get debt free? Why? How about borrow as much as you can and buy gold with it? What are you some kind of protestant masochist? The geniuses of this thing so far are the people who bought houses, got helocs, bought a bunch of shit then defaulted on their mortgages. Of course if they bought a bunch of useless services they broke even.

I just mortgaged my house again at 3% fixed for 10 years and bought a rural property in the mountains cash. Either it is crushing deflation and the government buys back all debt with funny munny or crushing inflation. Either way your debt is gone. There isn't enough fucking collection agencies to reel in all the bad debt out there. Best not be a lender (saver) in these times unless it is gold or land. So far the savers have gotten hosed every single time because democracy always votes to screw the minority and bail out the morons. All you have to do is get the easy cash and buy something solid out of their reach.

My feeling is the ones who are going to get raped are the ones who think they have a pension, insurance plan, stocks or some other counterparty trick and when they find out nobody is paying, they'll have to blow their nose with that paper.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 23:02 | 4004630 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

I agree Bob P.

It is confusing to hear folks say they are worried about a currency collapse and in the next breath say they are getting out of debt.

I say if you are sure you can service your debt then some debt is good. The only ones who will suffer with this plan are those who suddenly find themselves unable to pay. I suppose if this goes on for years that could be a lot of us.

Since I am in my 3rd year of believing the end could be near soon I am not one to say borrow money and buy gold. If this ends with a Weimar like event or with a sudden reset...then that would be the best strategy. If it drags on the a very balanced approached is best....with debt as a part of it.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 00:31 | 4004723 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

That's very sage advice from BP. Cash is King!

Which is why every adviser, broker, planner or schemer wants your cash. True quality advice is extremely hard to provide these days, given the internet(s).

Trust your cash deposits with the Bank of Certa & Sealy. ;-)

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:05 | 4004968 whirling tword ...
whirling tword freedom's picture

It's possible you are correct but, I've never seen a bank or anyone else relieve anyone of an obligation.....  Those are bank assets and, loans don't get forgiven unless you pay them off.  Whatever happens after any reset we have, your loans will be assets for someone else at some new exchange rate using possibly a new currency.

It may be a good strategy but, it hasn't been the way I have gone.

Regardless, I have a place in the country too and a 3% loan on a relatively small mortgage I could come up with enough to pay off if I needed to.

i want to have cash on hand as well as PMs.... It could be we have massive deflation before we have all the QE kick in and devalue things....  In that scenerio, cash is king and with cash you can buy up assets cheap if you have cash.  The cash I have aside will pay off the house if I want to do that but, at 3% interest, I'd rather have the cash.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 19:26 | 4007512 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Credit cards are unsecured credit. There's no legal basis to take anything.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 23:57 | 4004701 badrhino
badrhino's picture

What are you trapping to eat?  And where?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 00:11 | 4004707 TheMeatTrapper
TheMeatTrapper's picture

What are you trapping to eat?  And where?

Checkout my site at http://meattrapper.com. I trap enough beaver to feed my family red meat every day of the year. It's a lot like bison meat, only smaller. Here we have no closed season, no limit and no license is required. 

Snapping turtle is another huge source of meat. One a week goes a long, long way. Add in nutria, rabbits, crawfish, muskrat, coon and throw in catfish and there's more than you can eat. 

All it takes is work - lot's of hard work. And an investment in traps, equipment and skillset. I trap on the side of the interstate, in public rivers, lakes and behind strip malls in the suburbs. 

Check out this brief video where I explain how I got paid to put meat on the table: Hunger in America

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:45 | 4013346 Nephilim
Nephilim's picture

You trap beavers behind strip joints,

then eat them?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 01:04 | 4004747 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Well I've been trapping a good bit of Beaver down at the local watering hole, where they come to drink every weekend.

I festoon my trap with outrageous lies and vague promises of 2 buck chuck and fast food meals.

It's critical you realize not all of them are good eatin'; a good trapper develops a nose for this kind of thing.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 01:34 | 4004768 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Porche keys are also good bait but be sure your prey doesn't get the bait.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 19:28 | 4007518 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I would happily forego cattle for rabbits. Both can eat grass but it's super-easy to cage & breed meat rabbits. Plus I find rabbit meat more tender than beef.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 21:16 | 4004414 AllWorkedUp
AllWorkedUp's picture

"In the meantime most ordinary folk like you and me will lose our jobs, have to sell our gold to survive and end up poor."

 That is a very true statement. If they can keep gold supressed for another 5-10 years, I suspect they'll pretty much wipe out all but the 1% yet again.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 22:05 | 4004539 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

'In the meantime most ordinary folk like you and me will lose our jobs, have to sell our gold to survive and end up poor.'  ...that is my greatest fear.   a common fear among 'older ladies' is that they end up bag ladies on the street.   after all i've been prudent, i've saved & stocked & stacked, but, that is NO MATCH for Z.I.R.P. !!   ARREST, PROSECUTE & ASSET STRIP THESE CRIMINALS for FINANCIAL CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY !    

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 22:40 | 4004605 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

"Invest" in long term strorage food.  If you lose your job at least you will have something to eat (plus your EBT card).  Do you think they will do something special for the 50,000,000 th person to recieve an EBT card?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 00:19 | 4004703 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

The deal with the Broken Clock is that it's right twice a day. Which is better than almost any Financial Adviser.

Therefore, every perma-doom prognosticators will be right EVENTUALLY. Then they'll milk that fact for years.

The point is, even though guys like him will eventually be right (like winter will arrive eventually), most of us with "investment cash" need a much better weather forecast than predicting the seasons and recognizing its signs.

Time to "raise the bar" on all these guys. If they can't the the Quarter right, or even the year, then... Their 'value add' is worth what exactly?

Feel free to junk, but let's see a good counter, if we are to keep this blog more meritorious and less meritricious.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 02:16 | 4004793 tbd108
tbd108's picture

That depends on how much gold you have to back yourself up with.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:53 | 4004240 NemoDeNovo
NemoDeNovo's picture

He and many others are 100% Correct that the End Game is/has been here for a while.  The BIG questions is how much longer can TPTB keep the current fascade going so the Sheep/Zombies keep beLIEving the charade, that is the $64,000.00 dollar question........

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:58 | 4004251 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.  Faber is correct.  It is only the 'when' that is in quesiton.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:02 | 4004266 knukles
knukles's picture

I had a boss who recited that twice a day.

 

some folks said he was a real asshole

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:08 | 4004276 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

As a fellow 'friend of Bill', I can identify with your struggle brother.

:-)

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 22:28 | 4004579 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

We FOB's have to stick together. Plus, it's one less "need" to feed if shit gets truly bad.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 22:44 | 4004607 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

Truth brother.  I have thus far resisted the suggestion to stock up on airline bottles of liquor to use for barter in the event of a systemic collapse.  Not that I think it's a bad idea per se... It's just a very bad idea for me.  Especially when stored next to my lead collection and all the lead slingers next to it :-)

Something tells me that having all that booze in my basement would end badly.

Now cigarettes and coffee?  Oh, yea.  Got that one covered in spades.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 22:58 | 4004626 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Fellow friends of Bill, I reached ONE YEAR today.

Better for me, better for my family.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 00:37 | 4004728 J Pancreas
J Pancreas's picture

CONGRATULATIONS!! Four years in myself, one day at a time. God is good!

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 06:49 | 4004885 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Tread lightly.

That one year anniversary can be deadly.

Seven years here, with some close calls.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:38 | 4005037 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

Congrats DCRB.  Take heed of WC's warning... I've seen many a mighty soldier go down after the first medallion.

A wise man once told me there is no chip more dangerous than the one-year.

Caution and Godspeed brother.  Easy does it.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 15:26 | 4006694 DYS
DYS's picture

Time to go out and CELEBRATE!

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:48 | 4004361 Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture

If you can look into the seeds of time, and say which grain will grow and which will not, speak then unto me.

William Shakespeare

Macbeth Act 1 Scene 3

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 21:03 | 4004387 Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture

The economist, Richard Cantillon (1680-1734) made a correct prediction, regarding John Law’s Mississippi Bubble scheme based on economic theory and made a fortune as a result.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:57 | 4004248 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

npr had a piece about how a former secretary of state went around overthrowing governments

I went to get maw-maw so she could listen

"I told you, maw-maw .. npr is finally going to do a big tell-all about that kissinger fella"

so she puts in her hearing aid and listens with me

they have an author named kinzer on the show, and he's explaining how all these covert overthrowings were launched courtesy of secretary of state ..

dulles

that's right

dulles

because of his christian missionary zeal to go out there into all those countries

"I could have told you mister kissinger wasn't involved in any of that," maw-maw said

"he never showed much christian missionary zeao," she said

"pay no attention to that kissinger fellow," she said. 

"all the bad things going on now are just blowback from those christian missionary dulles boys"

http://www.npr.org/books/titles/225505335/the-brothers-john-foster-dulle...

that maw-maw!

 

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:57 | 4004380 petolo
petolo's picture

Farber?......the jewish painter of gloom and doom.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 21:08 | 4004400 EmmittFitzhume
EmmittFitzhume's picture

They are outsourcing the trolls offshore now

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 22:12 | 4004550 Fake Jim Quinn
Fake Jim Quinn's picture

There is a college named after Faber (not Farber").

 

http://www.complex.com/city-guide/2013/02/the-25-best-fictional-colleges...

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 02:57 | 4004811 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Farber makes cookware, doesn't he? (you know..."Farberware").

Not sure, but I like this Faber guy.  No one listened to him or Peter Schiff or others in 2007.

Then we had a complete shit-storm but somehow now it is all supposed to work out?

C'mon.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:44 | 4004226 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

 

to paraphrase John Lennon

 

all we are saying is give Obamacare a chance....... boom!

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:00 | 4004261 max2205
max2205's picture

Cry wolf dude

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:54 | 4004375 Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

One of these days, like a stopped clock, Faber will be right about something.  In the meantime, bored financial reporters will bring him on to spout his doomsday crap whenever they have a slow newsday.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 21:28 | 4004447 it aint easy
it aint easy's picture

He actually touched on a fresh existential angle in there.

We ARE the bubble, dude... whoa look at my hand, it's got like FIVE fingers..

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 02:21 | 4004794 Number 156
Number 156's picture

One of the things Ive noticed is that somebody is hiring PR fims to comment-stuff financial blogs with CNBC style trash talk. Others are just suckers for it.

If that is the case, desperate mesures are upon us:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astroturfing

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_astroturfing_cases

Look, He said the ENDGAME is here. Why? No more bubble room and every dollar printed adds almost nothing. Go ahead, Buy buy buy, and get back to me in a few months when youre sitting in a McDonalds using their free Wifi.

 

 

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:42 | 4004220 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

If not here, then where?

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 21:05 | 4004393 SilverShortage
SilverShortage's picture

http://www.marcfabernews.com

I am very Skeptical of any Forecasts, Especially long term Forecasts There are some people that will say that it will look this way or that way. I am very skeptical of any forecasts, especially long term forecasts. There are some trends that we can see about how society has changed in the last 30 years. I moved to Asia 40 years ago and I can see that Asia has developed a lot and grown a lot and we can see this

http://www.marcfabernews.com/2013/09/i-am-very-skeptical-of-any-forecasts.html#.Ukj2jBCrI7s

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:39 | 4005041 cnmcdee
cnmcdee's picture

I have 5 different sources speaking of a major world level event to strike starting October 1st, 2013. Zachary an autistic boy with a 100% accurate track record of predicting future events was shown an explosion to hit San Francisco bay region tomorrow.  Then 3 more people were shown dreams and visions of a world level event to occur to the San Francisco bay region for October 3rd, 2013.  Either way I would not be in the markets unless your shorting, and I would evacuate San Francisco.  It is supposed to be a 9.7 level event.

BRYAN GUSE : STOCK MARKET TO CRASH 3X THE SIZE OF THE 2008 COLLAPSE IN OCTOBER 2013. GET OUT NOW.

If you live in that area please - stockpile food and water and get out of there on a camping trip.  A 9.7 will destroy services out to possibly 200 miles and FEMA will only show up and build a large quarantine around the region.

 

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:46 | 4004217 BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

No Marc, we've reached the endgame of the world. Boys, it's time to buy yourselves a tent, a bottle of wine and a copy of Dharma Bums and sit somewhere and look into the vast emptiness of your minds and pray for all living creatures.  

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:46 | 4004352 xtop23
xtop23's picture

Wine is for sipping.....Tequila is for getting fucked up ( at least the way I drink it ).

When this all goes sideways, the last thing i'll be doing is sipping.

 

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:47 | 4004230 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

All it takes is one pinprick A sovereign nation repudiates the Dollar. 

The BANG of that pinprick would reverberate around the world.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 22:34 | 4004592 Marco
Marco's picture

As long as you can buy Saudi Arabian oil with dollars it doesn't matter if other countries accept the dollar ...

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 23:03 | 4004636 wintermute
wintermute's picture

OK then. Ask yourself how long Saudi will accept dollars if no one else does? 5 minutes or 5 seconds?

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 23:37 | 4004688 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

and that includes the USA itself. i find it interesting when claims of "maximum inflation" are made (in the form of "no more profits to be gleaned" via ZIRP.) it's not just the shorts who have been annihilated going on five years here (although clearly they have been...just look at hedge fund performance) but even the folks not in this thing to begin with have been crushed via "the opportunity cost." this is very rarified air when it comes to money in my view. in other words "how to explain the gold and silver shortage resulting in a collapsing price" is solved by me via a truly massive shortage of dollars. yet profits have never been higher. not saying the dollar shortage is actually true...just saying "that's the only thing left that can explain it." Next up Government shut down leading to...greater dollar shortages? this whole ZIRP "enterprise" is very difficult to wrap one's mind around. it's like Alice in Wonderland and assets are now to be viewed "through the looking glass." i feel like i had my best year ever when it comes to macro analysis...i meaning i'm talking a record slugging percentage compared to my last 4 years...yet at the level of actual performance i've gotten crushed "and equities keep on cruisin'." i've held tight and i'm glad...but i still feel as dumb today as i did when the Fed started us down this path. the best performers that i've seen are those who have experience in stock trading...and NOBODY else. simply put everyday when they come to work they know this can be their last...hence they have a very good understanding not just of risk...but of reward too. in other words...like Buffet...they're not afraid to be greedy either. the irony that trading has actually dried up on the Street is not lost on me either. interestingly though the "mega-hits" to the revenue line have been in the DEBT markets however...not equities. fascinatingly (as in "i'm looking into the Cobra's eyes and i can't avert my gaze") this has been true for some time now. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hawKmxtDueE

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 00:54 | 4004739 Ludwig Van
Ludwig Van's picture

.

DV -- "...this is very rarified air when it comes to money in my view. in other words "how to explain the gold and silver shortage resulting in a collapsing price...."

It just hit me tonight, looking over the pricing of my online dealer and comparing spreads with what I've logged to my ledgers, how the dealer has subtly altered their m.o....

THE PRICE OF METAL IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. Guys are selling the paper; that's why its price is declining. And those guys are buying physical; that's why it's harder to get.

Willie, et al., has been talking about the day coming when the price of metal goes dark. I believe that sometime over these recent days -- Syria B.S., Taperotomy, Budget & Debt Ceiling hoopla, Poland, India, the list of events reflecting the contortions is long -- that somehow along the way THE TRUE PRICE OF METAL HAS INDEED GONE DARK. All that can be known for the moment is the price of paper.

The Collapse is underway. The repudiation of the Dollar has begun. We may be only the 23rd monkey along in the process of universal revelation, but it is rolling forward. It is tipped. It is happening now.

.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:13 | 4005152 dcj98gst
dcj98gst's picture

They are very pissed about all this kiss assing of Iran and Syria lately.  Who know what will happen?

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:42 | 4004346 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Oh, do you mean "Rich Money Pennybags" from the Monopoly game?

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 22:04 | 4004534 orez65
orez65's picture

"... by raising QE to $ 100 Billion a month"

I think that you meant $100 Billion A DAY!

He is already doing $85 Billion a month.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 23:04 | 4004638 wintermute
wintermute's picture

85bn that we are told about...

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 23:16 | 4004655 yogibear
yogibear's picture

I'm thinking $200 billion/month.

When the currency starts tumbling the Fed will loose all control. A trigger point. 

US Bank holidays as people make a mad rush to get out of dollars.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 00:43 | 4004735 flyingcaveman
flyingcaveman's picture

If they raise it enough, they could taper the rate of the increase in stimulus so they would have something positive to report.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 07:59 | 4004963 rogeliokh
rogeliokh's picture

Yeah, And GOLD down again today? Will this BS Manipulation ever ends?

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:32 | 4004190 Meatballs
Meatballs's picture

Gloom and doom, bitchez.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:35 | 4004197 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Deflationary collapse.

Bring it on.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:52 | 4004368 Running On Bing...
Running On Bingo Fuel's picture

The fact is.

Deflationary downward spiral.

How can they stop it?

Confidence.

Up until now that game has been easy.

It's about to get a little more challenging.

"Fuck you Internet!" --Ben Shalom

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:34 | 4004199 lewy14
lewy14's picture

All respect to Marc, but it's important to remember that gloom and doom is more than his view, it's his business model. He's paid to talk this talk.

I personally think it's accurate - or more precisely, his views conform to my biases - but really, that's all it is.

Epistemological humility demands we challenge our own biases. Marc isn't very useful on that score.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:40 | 4004210 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

When selling gloom and doom it doesn't go over well if you suddenly pull a 180 and then like Obama switch to selling hopium and crack.

Somebody has to be the anti-anti-christ to Obama's anti-christ.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:50 | 4004237 lewy14
lewy14's picture

You know what real, sick, cold fear is?

The thought that somehow, everything will work out, and we're at the cusp of a long boom of cornucopian plenty.

That Keynes was right and that we solve the "economic problem".

That technology and capital create such abundance that the only problem is distributing it.

That the euthanasia of the rentier happens, capital dies, and the automated supply chain runs itself and keeps us fed and entertained.

That what it is to be a human being is irrevocably and fundamentally transformed, that personal responsibility goes the way of the prehensile tail, and mankind enters a global playpen, never to leave.

That terrifies me more than SHTF. Thankfully that vision is likely just a nightmare, but it still bothers me.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:54 | 4004244 Zero Point
Zero Point's picture

Goddam. The implications of your post are truly terrifying. Thanks for the nightmares.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:05 | 4004270 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

Not such a bad thing in my view.  I've long believed that "Matrix" type technology would render our curent form of existence obsolete.  Why strive for the house on the hills when you can plug in and live in the Playboy mansion?  If that technology could free humanity of the burdens of labor and the constant war for resources TPTB systems of control would collapse overnight.  That exponential increase in computing power would likely lead to some form of space exploration and perhaps a new trancedence for our species.

To quote Tyler Dureden "Let's evolve."

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:07 | 4004277 lewy14
lewy14's picture

No. 

I will rally around the black flag of the Butlerian Jihad.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:50 | 4004360 xtop23
xtop23's picture

Exactly.

Besides, Bene Gesserit's are three-holers.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 21:55 | 4004515 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

Rally around it all you want, it'll be a lonely party.  We can't stop people from smoking the wacky weed or tripping on acid.  You really think there's a way to stop people manipulating technology to alter conciousness?  Technology that is the backbone of our economy/society and will NEVER be banned.  There's a reason Dune is science-FICTION (though I've always thought of it as more of a fantasy tale than anything).

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 00:18 | 4004715 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Okay, so, everyone is like plugging in and stuff, right?  And so, well you know, the nerdy guy wakes up his crush from high school.  Then, click... turns the whole thing off in some manner that kills everyone else.

Likely scenario?  Probably not.  On the other hand, it would only take one whackjob to get into a position of life and death power over everyone else.  It's even worse when it is accidental.  For a species to create it's own extinction is something incredible.  To do it by accidently giving such power to someone without even realizing it.  It's almost like... the US today.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 18:35 | 4007355 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Or like global warming: easy to deny, but that's just a lie. It's subtle, lethal - it will end us.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 00:32 | 4004724 quartshort
quartshort's picture

"Technology that is the backbone of our economy/society and will NEVER be (completely) banned."

Spot on, but it will be twisted. Be it the current AAPL or the proverbial apple that Eve made so famous. Knowledge is a curious thing in my view. What happens if I take both a red and a blue pill at the same time? Sometimes it feels like I have done just that... I try to see the equation from two polar opposite angles and many times I agree or disagree with both views/outcomes. I've built my own prisoner's dilemma.

My self-induced schizophrenias suit me well. Thank you ZH!

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 01:39 | 4004771 lewy14
lewy14's picture

When all other catechisms are erased, this phrase alone will command the faithful:

Thou shalt not disfigure the soul.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 18:27 | 4007338 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Actually it was a parable of oil resource wars.
And the dangers uncontrolled technology cause when left in charge.
Herbert was smart enough to see even biotechnologies without control would be lethal. He decided for some reason to have those controlled (Bene Gesserit) and not the AI's (Omnius)

These dangers are still very real.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:45 | 4004350 bonin006
bonin006's picture

Don't worry, lewy. 

"That technology and capital create such abundance that the only problem is distributing it."

Government regulators are on the job to make sure that doesn't happen. Although we often criticize them for being stupid, wasteful, incompetent, etc..., in this area they actually appear to be infallible.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 21:58 | 4004524 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

Correct sir.  Read the "Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism" section of 1984.  Orwell's theory of "The High" wishing to destroy the fruits of excess production to maintain class structure is spot on.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:51 | 4004364 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

The spirit can never die.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 01:17 | 4004760 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

What is dead may never die, but rises again, harder and stronger

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 18:29 | 4007342 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Oh ya?

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 21:12 | 4004404 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

"That what it is to be a human being" is beyond the reach of most people. Most people are not 6 foot 6, don't have an IQ of 180, or qualify as human. That's just how nature works.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 21:26 | 4004419 lewy14
lewy14's picture

I'm not by nature an optimist but I have more faith on this matter than you.

And I'm encouraged that there appear to be some people who get it.

It's a matter of potential. It is the birthright of every human to express their human nature.

And a world without responsibility will rob every future human of that opportunity.

But that's a hypothetical future, a conjecture.

Here and now: I like to think of myself as belonging to an exclusive subset of humanity as much as the next guy. The attraction of exclusivity is, well, universal. It's human nature. We sort. It's what we do.

But I'm given to understand that the set of beings who qualify as human is a bit broader than fashionable exclusivist sentiment would posit.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 21:23 | 4004428 Roger Knights
Roger Knights's picture

But it'll be a Brave New World!

/sarc

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 21:37 | 4004463 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Doesn't bother me one bit. But no technology overcomes human nature.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 18:30 | 4007345 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

TV did, for a while. The Internet is helpign to restore it but only in terms of willingness to learn. Not in terms of leadership or sustainable living.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 12:09 | 4005716 Dr. Bonzo
Dr. Bonzo's picture

Funny... if I didn't know any better I would have thought you were scribbling this from some Starsux on the Bund in Shanghai. Seems to be the prevaling sentiment in China. Up UP UP... everything is always UP. The future is Bright Brighter BRIGHTEST and the Glorious Han People are the new Masters of the Universe. The world is their monkey brain and they will partake of its riches with glorious golden spoonfuls carving up that knob till every last bloody savory bit is devoured.

 

 

 

 

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 21:34 | 4004457 prains
prains's picture

Gloom and doom, bitchez.

 

Think we're entering the.....

 

Doom and Boom!....portion of the show, take your seats please, we'll be dimming the lights momentarily

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:34 | 4004194 Amused2Death
Amused2Death's picture

He's on record saying it may be 5-10 years in the future too, so which is it?

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:58 | 4004255 SunRise
SunRise's picture

may

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:28 | 4004315 Running On Bing...
Running On Bingo Fuel's picture

"One day..."

"this whole credit bubble will be deflated very badly"

A monkey with a hand grenade could have told me that!??

What?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 18:29 | 4007346 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Stardate 2081.437

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:34 | 4004195 monopoly
monopoly's picture

But When? That is what we are all waiting for. How much longer? It seems to go on and on with no consequences. 

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:34 | 4004198 Overleveraged_a...
Overleveraged_and_Impatient's picture

Remember in 08 when gas prices went back down to $1.75 for a little while?

 

The fact is that people with no assets or savings (most people) will probably benefit from a system collapse and reset. 

 

Imagine homes that are actually affordable. Reasonable prices among all products.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:41 | 4004216 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

And less fear of losing one's job now that everyone is doing it.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:15 | 4004283 BlueCheeseBandit
BlueCheeseBandit's picture

Hey man, I was losing my job before it was cool.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:47 | 4004231 resurger
resurger's picture

and i wanna see the greedy bastards on wallstreet jump

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:55 | 4004245 daveO
daveO's picture

System collapse=free market reset. The banksters have been actively fighting against a free market reset for a dozen years, now. It all started when the markets tanked and Greenspan responded by setting rates too low. We've only had a few years of 'norma'l rates since. Then, Bernanke realized what he had done by allowing rates to normalize. He popped the housing bubble! Typical Communist Central Planners.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 22:41 | 4004603 Marco
Marco's picture

All the debt won't just be forgiven, collateral will change hands. It's not going to be a reset, it's going to be a consolidation ... and the bankers and wallstreet are fighting it because they want a bigger piece of the consolidated pie when it happens.

There are only two ways to truly reset, taxation and guillotines.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 18:30 | 4007348 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Imagine if savings, wages & jobs go down first.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:39 | 4004206 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Geezers in freezers....

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:44 | 4004213 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

They have us at the point of a gun. Too much of the world's economy is dependent on revenues from the Ponzi. Nobody can get out without bringing the whole thing down. Many of the posters here admit the system is corrupt, manipulated and broken yet continuue to stay in the game. This could go on for a long time.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:02 | 4004263 seek
seek's picture

By the same token, the system gets more and more dependent on cooperation as it becomes corrupt.

The first defection -- intentional or not -- will collapse the whole thing. Even if they wanted to certain countries and central banks may be unable to cooperate. Japan comes to mind.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 20:34 | 4004324 BlueCheeseBandit
BlueCheeseBandit's picture

No corrupt, unsustainable system ever ended because a majority voted for it to end.

But they do end. Every time.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 18:31 | 4007350 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

time to get out. Maximum overdrive on departure

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:41 | 4004214 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

I for one am glad that I purchased $30 worth or toilet paper today. It appears I should have gotten at least $60 as it will be a long time before the next corn crop. Geez the retail stores are looking really bad.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 19:53 | 4004243 Lokking4AnEdge
Lokking4AnEdge's picture

You should have bought some soap too....

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 22:21 | 4004562 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

What for?

I make my own plus laundry soap. Hands down better than corporate industrial garbage.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 18:34 | 4007352 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

soap is easier to make than toilet paper. You can do both but soap is less challenging.

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