Futures Tumbles Ahead Of US Government Shutdown

Tyler Durden's picture

European equities trade negatively as political tensions on both sides of the Atlantic dampens risk appetite and a lower than expected HSBC manufacturing PMI figure from China further weighs upon investor sentiment. In the US, government is on the precipice of the first shutdown since 1996 after House Republicans refused to pass a budget unless it involved a delay to Obama’s signature healthcare reforms. If the Republicans follow through with their threat a shutdown will occur at midnight tonight. As a result a fixed income in the US and core Europe benefit with investors wary of the immediate harm a shutdown will do to confidence in the economy.

Meanwhile, Italy’s former PM and leader of Italy’s main centre-right party Silvio Berlusconi, has called for fresh elections “as soon as possible” after ordering his five ministers to resign from the coalition government he formed with Prime Minister Enrico Letta’s Democrats last April. While the President Napolitano has sought to resist another election, just over 100 days after the formation of the current government, this may be the only option if another majority coalition is not promptly formed. Current PM Enrico Letta is likely to appear in parliament on Wednesday and seek a confidence vote before proposing reforms in the electoral law in order to avoid a repeat of the recent tumult. As a consequence of the uncertainty surrounding the future of the Italian government the IT GE 10y spread had widened to levels not seen since June, and Italian banks remain the worst performing stocks in Europe. Looking ahead markets will be anticipating the release of US Chicago PMI and Canadian GDP.

Overnight news bulletin from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • The US government is on the precipice of shutdown after Republicans refused to pass a budget unless it involved a delay to Obama’s signature healthcare reforms.
  • Silvio Berlusconi, leader of Italy’s main centre-right party, has called for fresh elections “as soon as possible” after ordering his five ministers to resign from the coalition government.
  • Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Sep F) M/M 50.2 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 50.1)
  • Treasuries higher as  U.S. government stands poised  for its first partial shutdown in 17 years at midnight tonight, after a weekend with no signs of negotiations or compromise from either the House or Senate to avert it  
  • Unemployment in the 17-nation euro area remained at a record high of 12.1 percent in August, according to the median estimate of 30 economists in a Bloomberg News survey
  • The unemployment rate measure has contributed to the market’s confusion over the direction of monetary policy, and Fed officials now are struggling with how to minimize it as a policy benchmark without damaging their credibility, according to Ethan Harris, co-head of global economics research at BofAML
  • As the threat of renewed crisis in the euro area emanating from Italy raised pressure for an agreement, senior members of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union meeting in Berlin today announced that talks would be convened at the end of the week
  • Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta defied Silvio Berlusconi’s attempt to force snap elections and said he plans to seek a new parliamentary majority to salvage his stricken government
  • Sovereign yields mostly lower, peripherals spreads wider, Nikkei drops 2.1%, Asian indexes other than Chinese lower. European stocks, S&P 500 futures down. WTI crude, copper and gold rise

Asian Headlines

The Asia-Pacific session was dominated by the Western European and US political woes, as both the Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225 fell in overnight trading. Nonetheless, both indices registered strong gains over the month of September, and ahead of the Chinese holidays for the rest of the week. Bucking the trend in Shanghai, the Composite index closed up 0.7% as the opening of the Free Trade Zone firmed investor sentiment, as the economically liberated area is seen lifting demand and growth.

EU & UK Headlines

Silvio Berlusconi, leader of Italy’s main centre-right party, has called for fresh elections “as soon as possible” after ordering his five ministers to resign from the coalition government he formed with Prime Minister Enrico Letta’s Democrats last April.

Additionally, Italian President Napolitano has said he has no intention to dissolve parliament and push the Italian population into a fresh round of voting. (La Repubblica/Corriere della Serra) Napolitano added that a fresh round of voting is a last resort and Italy must first attempt to find a majority coalition before any other options are considered. There were also reports that Italian PM Letta will appear in Parliament, probably on Wednesday and will seek a confidence vote. Letta stated that he has proposals ready for a new electoral law to avoid a deadlock in the future, adding that a new Italian election with the current voting law would lead to no clear majority in Parliament.

German Retail Sales (Aug) M/M 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. -1.4%, Rev. -0.2%), Y/Y 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 2.3%, Rev. 2.9%)

UK Mortgage Approvals (Aug) M/M 62.2K vs. Exp. 61.5K (Prev. 60.6K, Rev. 60.9K)

Prime Minister David Cameron defied critics of his government’s “Help to Buy” program to aid Britons frozen out of the property market by the need for high deposits, saying the second phase will start this week, three months earlier than planned. (Newswires)

The US government is on the precipice of a historic shutdown after House Republicans refused to pass a budget unless it involved a delay to Obama’s signature healthcare reforms. (Observer) There was a growing sense on Capitol Hill on Sunday that House Republicans were prepared to see through their threat of a shutdown, which would begin at 0501BST on Tuesday.

Moody's said the US will probably increase the debt limit and avoid a government shutdown. Moody's added that a government shutdown wouldn't affect debt service. Moody's further stated that a debt cap failure would lead to perceived default risk and that failure to raise the debt limit is worse than a shutdown. (Newswires)

Janet Yellen record gives pointer to Fed policy if Obama picks her as chair. (FT-More) The report says that a decision to appoint Ms Yellen could come this week, if there is a window of calm between averting a government shutdown and President Barack Obama’s departure on a trip to Asia.
Barclays month-end extension: Treasury +0.06y


In European trade the Italian FTSE MIB has underperformed following rising political tensions over the weekend, As a result of these recent events several small-cap Italian banks have been halted in trade and are likely to be in and out of trade for the remainder of the session.The greatest decliners across European indices are Italian banks.

UK Homebuilders have risen in morning trade, as the UK PM Cameron has advanced the start date of the Help to Buy scheme, raising buyer sentiment for the industry, and lifting related stocks. US stock futures trade lower ahead of the open, indicating a lower open on Wall Street today.


Safe haven currencies benefit from low risk appetite amid political uncertainty on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.The CHF sees strength, especially against the EUR as the potential breakup of the Italian government sees investors flee from the single currency. Meanwhile USD remains flat as the investors await the result of negotiations of Democrats and Republicans later today.


Both Brent and WTI crude futures trade with losses ahead of the NYMEX pit open, as political wrangling hits the riskier assets and the continued moderation in Iranian relations press energy markets lower. On the topic, Morgan Stanley have said that the oil market would be 'flooded' if Iranian sanctions are fully withdrawn. Additionally, the poorer than expected Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI has counteracted the bullish Chinese equities, which rose alongside the opening of Shanghai's Free Trade Zone, leading spot gold to trade flat ahead of the COMEX open.

Iran is willing to discuss limits in the level to which it enriches uranium but will never suspend the process altogether, the deputy foreign minister said in comments reported on Sunday. (ZeeNews)

* * *

DB's Jim Reid's conclude the overnight recap in a way only he can

It’s a week that the US and Italian Governments could be in shutdown and breakdown mode respectively. Indeed after the weekend's activity (or lack of  it) it now looks almost certain that we'll get a shutdown after midnight tonight in the US. Meanwhile Berlusconi has thrown Italian politics into potential chaos again after ordering his 5 ministers to resign from the coalition. It’s an impressive feat to knock-off a potential US government shutdown from top billing but Berlusconi might have achieved it. He initially seemed to be demanding new elections on Sunday morning but noises came later in the day that support for his actions weren't unanimous within his party which seemed to prompt Berlusconi to offer the possibility that his party could still support the current Government's 2014 budget if concessions on planned tax increases were made.

Moving to the US it now appears almost certain, according to DB’s Frank Kelly, that the US government will shut down at midnight tonight (September 30th) for the first time since 1996 after the Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed a continuing resolution early Sunday morning which would fund the government through to December 15th but included an amendment to delay Obamacare by one year and repeal a related tax on medical devices. The bill is now with the Democrat-controlled Senate where majority Leader Harry Reid has already stated the bill is unacceptable. As we write the Senate is not even set to come back into session until 2p.m. Monday afternoon leaving Congress just hours to avoid a shutdown. If no agreement is reached the federal government will shut down all nonessential operations on October 1st which will stay shut down until a new law is agreed by Congress and signed by the President. Frank’s current view is that a shutdown will not last too long and he has a baseline figure of around 2-5 days, with a lot depending on the public reaction to the shutdown.

Whilst a temporary government shutdown may not be disastrous there are two points of real concern. First the weekend’s events do suggest that this morning’s grid-locked Congress is more dangerous than the grid-locked Congress of Friday night as the Republican leadership (represented by House Speaker Boehner, Majority Leader Eric Cantor and Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy) appears to have lost control over the Republican conservative rank-and-file who have forced this confrontation upon the Leadership having rejected a number of strategies which would have avoided it. This increases the chances that the House Republicans fail to pass a bill which has any hope of being acceptable by the Senate Democrats and President Obama. The second major worry is the hanging question of where this leaves the far more dangerous debt ceiling issue, as the US gets ever close to its debt limit (best estimates place the date for hitting the ceiling at October 17th). There is some cause for hope on the debt ceiling front however. The House  Republican Leadership know that they have around 100 Republican votes they can rely on and may, when it comes to the bigger issuer of the US debt ceiling, cross party lines and work with the White House/Senate to get a deal done, leaving the hard-core Republican/Tea Party elements behind and preventing a default.

Looking to today’s events the Senate may simply table the House bill, which would require 51 votes and could be achieved with Democrat votes alone. This would leave the House in exactly the same place as they found themselves on Friday evening and leave the House Republican leadership and Boehner in particular with the choice to put the “clean” Senate bill on the floor or try again to amend the bill. If the House again attempted to amend the bill this would almost certainly lead to a government shutdown.

Outside of today’s looming US budget deadline we have an important week ahead with the highlights being US nonfarm payrolls, the ISM/PMI data, and ECB, BoJ and RBA meetings. China’s markets will be closed beginning Tuesday for a week long National Day holiday. Before the holidays, China has kicked the data week off with a soft HSBC/Markit PMI manufacturing number of 50.2 in September vs 51.2 expected (50.1 in August). In response to the weekend's political news, Asian markets are soft but not spectacularly so. S&P 500 futures are around -0.6% lower, with Japan’s Topix and the Hang  both around -1.3% lower. 10 year Treasuries are 2bp lower at 2.60%.

At the end of the week we in theory have a fascinating payrolls number but with a shutdown there is a likelihood that it gets postponed. If the number does get released, what intrigues us is the fact that we now move out of a period that payrolls have tended to be seasonally weak through history. June-August numbers tend to be lower than the rest of the year. So will September's number confirm that we are still in a relatively subdued job creation environment or will the seasonals start to pick up and maybe show that the summer numbers weren't representative of underlying activity? Our base case is that growth whilst positive will be behind trend for sometime and not allow strong payroll growth and will rein in the pace of tapering. However if payrolls are going to pick up it might be now as the negative seasonals are out of the way. We'll certainly know a bit more on Friday if there's anyone around to count and publish over the next few days. For the record DB is expecting a headline gain of 170k and an unemployment rate of 7.3%. Other important releases include Today’s Chicago PMI, tomorrow’s ISM, Wednesday’s ADP employment, and Thursday’s services ISM, jobless claims and factory orders. Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to speak on the topic ‘Community Banking’ on Wednesday. The Fed’s Stein, Dudley, Fisher and Kocherlakota will all be speaking on Friday.

In Europe, the ECB council meets this week which will be followed by Draghi’s usual press conference. There is also increasing focus on the potential for another LTRO. Key data releases for the week include today’s German retail sales, Italian CPI/PPI; tomorrow's final Euroarea manufacturing PMIs and  Italian unemployment; Wednesday’s Spanish jobless data; and Thursday’s final  In China, the official manufacturing PMI is scheduled tomorrow, followed by the official services PMI on Wednesday. China’s markets will be closed beginning Tuesday for a week long National Day holiday. The government will be announcing details of its Shanghai free trade zone before the holiday. In Japan, the BOJ will meet on Friday. Shinzo Abe will be holding a press conference where he may announce a change to sales taxes and details of a stimulus package. followed by Tankan manufacturing survey and Aug employment stats tomorrow.


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firstdivision's picture

Nero has picked up his fiddle and spilt fuel oil has caught fire.

Zer0head's picture

Bloomberg TV

just now

Bloomberg reporter Julianna Goldman actually refers to republicans in congress as hostage takers and Bloomberg's Al Hunt actually calls them jihadists

Headbanger's picture

Lame Steam Media is very fearful of a shutdown and less QE because they know their advertizing revenues will drop like a brick on their heads.

duo's picture

what "damage to the economy" can exceed what ZIRP and Obamacare have already done?

Headbanger's picture

Hillary Clinton elected prez.

kralizec's picture

That'll be in the third act, many scenes left in this one to entertain the mob.

stocktivity's picture

It's all Bullshit!  Expect a last minute "solution" of kicking the ole can down the road.

Ruffcut's picture

It's always been bullshit, two bullshit parties of self serving pricks. It's just getting more obvious to inflict fear to those how have worked and played by bogus rules created by the rulers.

GetZeeGold's picture



Is this right? Do we now have over 9 trillion in debt?


How the hell did this happen? This is clearly unpatriotic....and not very cool.


GetZeeGold's picture



Wan't looking for new math....I was just hoping for some math.

kralizec's picture

This isn't the math you were looking for.

Wolferl's picture

Expect a last minute solution, as usual. Of course after Europe has closed, what else.

Headbanger's picture

Not going to happen this time cause the financial situation is so far out of control already such that bond yield would explode higher if the debt ceiling is raised again.


Wolferl's picture

Benny and the FED boys have everything under control. They will buy those bonds at zero percent yield if necessary. They have the dollar printing press, ya know.

fonzannoon's picture

Dude....you are actually correct. When the debt ceiling is raised yields will probably pop. Maybe 10-15bps. But that is a celebration. It will accompany a sharp move higher in stawks too. Risk on. Happy times. That's about it.

rustymason's picture

Really? Does anyone seriously believe the government is going to shut down? The government will have a warp core breach and explode before that happens.

Headbanger's picture

Yes it will. It happened before Trekkie Boy.

rustymason's picture

Wow. So the IRS will close and I don't have to pay taxes? The schools will all close? The Army, Navy, Air Force, Coast Guard, DHS, the NSA, the FBI, the CIA will all stop operations and stay home? Garbage won't be collected, city water will cease to flow, and fire and police departments will all close?

This has not happened and it will not happen until the federal government is forced into it. Unfortunately, we are a long way from that.

Headbanger's picture

Yes it will all cease completely. So please "shelter in place" until further notice and stay off the phone and computers so the roaming looters won't find you!  Good luck.

I just hope the hordes of looters I see have a lot of ammo with them cause I can always use moar!

wackydog's picture

Ask yourself: self - how many billions a day does the gov't NOT SPEND, if they close? Sure it may take close to $1B to shutdown, and again to start up... but in between they're NOT spending money!

That's a GOOD thing.

KidHorn's picture

The savings will be almost nothing. Most people don't realize that the salaries for gov't employees is tiny compared to what is spent on entitlements and interest. Which will be paid no matter what. Even then, the employees will probably get back pay for their time off. In addition, only non essential employees will be furloughed.

I know gov't employees are by and large worthless, but it's better to pay them a salary then to pay someone for doing nothing. Which is what entitlement spending is.

KidHorn's picture

They won't completely shut down. Only non essential personnel will get furloughed. That means, only the ones who do nothing will get a vacation that will end up being back paid. Which is probably the majority of employees. The only losers will be contractors with non essential contracts.

Vice's picture


skipjack's picture

"If the Republicans follow through with their threat a shutdown"


Who the hell writes this shit ?  Seems to me that the Dimwits are as responsible as the Rethuglicans.


Shut it all the fuck down.

GetZeeGold's picture



Surely we can find a third grader who has aced math to run this crap for us.

Ruffcut's picture

Even a third grader would just throw their hands and say "fuck it".

They did it all on purpose to move towards the NWO.

GetZeeGold's picture



....because they did such a good job with the old one.

Zero Point's picture

Shit, I'd take a cracked magic 8 ball.

KidHorn's picture

It's the pubs who are holding this up. They don't mind increasing the cap as long as obamacare is delayed. They're still pissed off that obamacare passed. I don't like obamacare, but it did pass fair and square. I hate both parties, but not seeing how the pubs are playing dirty politics in this issue is being blind to the facts.

GeezerGeek's picture

You must have a very strange definition for the phrase "fair and square". Remember Pelosi saying it had to be passed for anyone to find out what was in it? Remember the Senate taking a House bill, trashing the original and substituting PPACA so it could be considered to have originated in the House? Now remind me: exactly what part of the delaying tactics is "dirty politics"? It seems to me that the refusal of Harry Reid and the Democrat-controlled Senate to pass any budget whatsoever in recent years is the "dirty politics", but what do I know? 

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

In Greece the golden dawn party leadership is in jail...how about that tylers???

rustymason's picture

The liberals/lefties are in total control. All conservative or right-wring groups are shut down immediately and their leaders harassed and jailed. The Marxists/Trotskyites have won. The system is going full commie. It cannot be saved. It is time to make other plans.

buzzsaw99's picture

the drama, ooh, the drama. it almost seems real. everything "they" do is designed to increase trading volume so the squid can get a bonus.

SmallerGovNow2's picture

"As a result a fixed income in the US and core Europe benefit with investors wary of the immediate harm a shutdown will do to confidence in the economy. "


GrinandBearit's picture

All of this is histrionics and political theater.

My crystal ball says:  The bureaucratic dipshits will reach a last minute agreement... the markets go back up and erases all of today's ES losses.  Business as usual. 

Wash, rinse and repeat. 

Mentaliusanything's picture

And in the land downunder,the central bank has been caught with its fingers on Sadam H's dick. Trying to sell banknotes while under embargo.Our most trusted insitution is beyond the law. This will leave a stain on Glen Stevens. 

Bobbyrib's picture

Gold begins sell off as "investors return to safe haven assets." You can't make (manipulate) this shit up.

GrinandBearit's picture

It's totally ridiculous.  PMs should be up 5-10% right now.

GetZeeGold's picture



At the first sign of any real trouble the first thing to do is to whack gold......it's tradition.

fonzannoon's picture

Yes PM's should be up 5-10% right now and the 10yr should be at 7.50% and blowing out. Except this whole thing is a joke, and no one cares. Live the ponzi. Be the ponzi. nananananana

GetZeeGold's picture



The ponzi has jumped the shark.

fonzannoon's picture

well with that sort of attitute...

Bobbyrib's picture

Not yet, but Fonzie (Henry Wrinkler, not the poster) does seem to be slipping on the water skies. When the ponzi jumps the shark, the dollar will be TP.

FerretBrain's picture

Can't allow the shutdown to happen -- that would expose for all to see just how much of the federal government is a useless farce.  Let it go for more than about a week and the calls to "turn the machines back on" will go eerily quiet!

diging deep's picture


just found in moscow airport warehouse....17billion euros on 200 pallets each worth 100million each...and yes this is all CASH!!

link with pics...and the best part is nobody wants to claim it...


  • Cash in 100 euro notes is stored on wooden pallets
  • Each of the 200 pallets is worth 100million euros
  • Money was sent to Moscow from Frankfurt in 2007
  • Documents show the sender was a 45-year-old Iranian
  • No recipient listed but sources say it could belong to Saddam Hussein
  • Other theories are that it belonged to Colonel Gaddafi, a Mafia operation linked to the state, or corrupt officials
  • Unsuccessful attempts have been made to claim the fortune that would make the owner richer than Roman Abramovich
Bobbyrib's picture

Putin kindly thanks you for your donation to Russia.

GetZeeGold's picture



Eric Snowden will be around to claim it shortly.....that guys really plans ahead!

Hobbleknee's picture

Saul Goodman is getting sloppy.

robertocarlos's picture

You should always store your excess cash in the air-vents of your home. Nobody would think to look there.