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T-Minus 15 Hours: The Complete Government Shutdown Summary

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Presenting the full summary about the only event the market is focused on today.

MAIN POINTS:

Today sees the Senate reconvene after yesterday saw the Republican-led House voted in favour of a modified continuing resolution (CR) which includes a one-year delay to Obamacare (the Affordable Care Act). The Senate is not scheduled to meet until 1400ET today meaning that if the new bill is rejected there is not enough time to create a new CR and pass it back to the Senate before the midnight deadline, leading to a government shutdown in which all non-essential government workers will stay at home. Expectations are now that it is likely there will be a temporary shutdown given that the White House signalled the new CR would be vetoed by President Barack Obama and Democrats in the Senate immediately said the legislation approved by the House yesterday is unacceptable.

Even if there is a government shutdown, it is expected to only last a day or two and a CR is expected to pass in Congress this week, however this shutdown could lead to a delay of Friday's release of this month's Non-Farm Payroll report. This will fund the government to at least November 15th, giving more time for Congress to create a CR which extends through the entire 2014 fiscal year. Goldmans estimate a 2-day US govt shutdown will hit Q4 GDP (annualised) by 0.1 percentage points and one week by 0.3 percentage points, however the more important issue for Congress to address will be the debt ceiling as the US is expected to exhaust borrowing capacity on October 17th.

One main concern of a delay to both a 2014 budget and raising the debt ceiling is the possibility of a credit rating downgrade of the US sovereign, although overnight Moody's said that a government shutdown wouldn't affect debt service and that a debt cap failure would lead to perceived default risk and that failure to raise the debt limit is worse than a shutdown.

It is worth bearing in mind that several members of Congress are likely to speak to the press throughout today as they arrive for discussions and the Senate vote, and as is often the case, any deal between the Senate and House is likely to be either overnight or within the next two days. Although a US government shutdown is a risk event for financial markets, many analysts have noted this week's voting is overshadowed by debt ceiling negotiations which will begin shortly after. These talks will have a much greater impact on market sentiment as a delay to increasing borrowing capacity risks a US default as the worst case scenario.

EVENTS OVER THE WEEKEND:

  • Shutdown seen as unavoidable without talks
  • U.S. 4Q GDP seen reduced by as much as 1.4 percentage pts. depending on shutdown’s duration
  • Latest House plan authorizes 10 wks of spending starting Oct.1 only if most provisions of Obama health law delayed a year
  • Senate Democrats, President Obama say they will reject any measure that includes provisions tied to Obamacare
  • Yday, Senate Majority leader Harry Reid D-Nev. says chamber has acted on Continuing Resolution, adjourns until today 2pm
  • Govt shutdown odds now at 90%, Democrat Collender says

ECONOMY:

  • In case of govt shutdown, Labor Dept says it will issue jobless claims data (scheduled Thursday 8:30am)
  • SEC says EDGAR system, crucial enforcement will continue
  • Treasury says it will operate debt programs and manage cash, USPTO says it will stay open “a few weeks”
  • Commerce Dept says it won’t issue economic data
  • Bearish impact on U.S. economy “significant” if shutdown lasts,  Morgan Stanley says in note
  • Shutdown means Fed will have to prolong QE: BNP Paribas

CONTRACTORS:

  • "Notable" cos. tied to potential continuing resolution moves; H.J. Res. 59 would fund govt at “close to current levels”  according to Sept. 27 note from Bloomberg Industries analyst Brian Friel: BLL, BAVA@DC, BA, CACI, ERICB@SS, XLS, GD, GSK@LN, HRS, LMT, NOC, NOVN@VX, RTN, SAN@FP, TTEK, URS
  • Top 20 tied to defense, healthcare, infrastructure, IT:LMT, BA, GD, RTN, NOC, UTX SAIC, BA/@LN, LLL, HII, MCK, Bechtel (2213Z@US), BAH, URS, CSC, DYN, HUM, HNT, Triwest Healthcare (1893Q@US), TXT/BA joint venture
  • Health Exchanges begin enrollment tomorrow there’s a partial shutdown of govt.
  • Fannie, Freddie don’t face direct shutdown effect: Moody’s
  • Senate bill ends protection Sept. 30 for Monsanto, Dupont on bioengineered seeds: BI’s Friel
  • USD begins week buffeted by increasing possibility of U.S. government shutdown

TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS BASED ON DEBT SHUTDOWN CATALYST:

Barclays

  • Go long USD/CAD 2w2w FVA; relatively low USD/CAD volatility and its exposure to U.S. economic outlook make this an attractive hedge against U.S. political risk from debt-ceiling negotiations and a potential spike in market volatility

Credit Agricole CIB

  • Risk aversion is rising, U.S. equities and USD are falling
  • Near-term prospects for USD are bleak, with limited potential for any upside unless budget deal is reached; safe-haven currencies, in particular JPY, will be buoyed in this environment
  • In terms of high-beta currencies including Asian currencies, any positive impact from the fact that U.S. yields are capped will be outweighed by rising risk aversion leaving most Asian currencies vulnerable

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ

  • If no resolution is reached, partial govt shutdown will kick in on Oct. 1, which could prompt USD selling against majors although stronger against Asia
  • Beyond govt shutdown, bigger issue is how they move toward debt limit when govt runs out of cash on Oct. 17; under such circumstances, BOT-Mitsubishi UFJ’s one-week USD/JPY forecast is a wider 96.50-100.00 on safe-haven JPY bids

Westpac

  • Expects USD to continue to trade on the “backfoot” vs its peer core currencies during a govt shutdown; event risk early in the week is negative for USD
  • Failure to raise debt ceiling would mean the U.S. govt must pay all its bills out of current revenue, risking default and downgrade and probable chaos in markets

Source: RanSquawk, Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:38 | 4005031 Leonardo Fibonacci2
Leonardo Fibonacci2's picture

Is Obama on that airplane?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:39 | 4005039 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

Not sure but judging by the bloated appearance wifey is

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:39 | 4005042 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

Watch the Bloomberg morning Crew call those opposed to Obamacare Jihadists and hostage takers

http://player.ooyala.com/cacheable/1c5c217cd02742b0516601d2cfbc6ce8/play...

If only someone would ask Julianna "Why the long face?" and tell Al Hunt to return to his crypt

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:45 | 4005059 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Can't we do something about these raping anarchist aronist jihadist terrorists?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:50 | 4005076 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

If the there is a government shutdown, many market participants should run roughshod over many rules and laws designed to protect the investing public. With the SEC and other government agencies running a skeleton crew, imagine what many bankers will try to get away with. It could be financial anarchy!!

 

Oh wait....

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:51 | 4005088 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

You mean there might be clarity, reason, and a sense of sharing?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:59 | 4005118 Stuart
Stuart's picture

Good cartoon.  It fits.  Either way the US no longer deserves to be the sole reserve currency.   It's clear it's a matter of time before it goes bankrupt.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:05 | 4005136 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Tell me why we have to raise the spending limit again.....if everything is free?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:12 | 4005148 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

It's just a partial Fascist shutdown. The rest has just been all business as usual political grandstanding dog & pony bullshit.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:42 | 4005234 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

GovERMENT SHUTDOWN, That Means GOLD MANIPULATION ENDS.
Ore Is That Part Of The Military Budget ???

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:52 | 4005264 monad
monad's picture

The US government is just one tool of the FR-IMF-WB-UN cabal. PM manipulation will continue unabated. 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 10:37 | 4005380 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

The thought of borrowing money, to pay someone's salary has pissed me off for too long.  Government is just too big.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 11:10 | 4005484 Hard1
Hard1's picture

This looks like the reality "Biggest Looser" but renamed "Biggest Asshole".  There's plenty of competition, but Boenher takes the top prize 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 18:24 | 4007326 TheRedScourge
TheRedScourge's picture

So what really happens if there's a "shutdown"? The budget has to be balanced in a hurry if they don't come to an agreement.

So, if it doesn't happen, what will they cut? Fixed income like welfare, pensions, or food stamps? Hmm, no, they don't like being pitchforked by hungry homeless with nothing left to lose. Military wages? No, they need protection incase people show up with pitchforks. "Critical services" like domestic spying? No, for the same reason they won't cut military wages. Lay off employees or sell off buildings? No, they need the support of all the friends they gave jobs to keep moving up the ranks. What's left then?

- capital expenditures, from replacing fleet vehicles, to new military weaponry, to toilet paper and everything in between

- all but the bare minimum contributions necessary to keep social security and various pension funds going

- non-critical services that don't turn a profit, the absense of which will piss off the voters, causing them to pressure their congressmen to please spend more

That sounds about right. Any others I've forgotten? Anyone? Bueller?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 10:11 | 4005312 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Fed gold manipulation will not stop during a gov't shutdown.  The Fed is not a goverment agency, it is a self-dealing private cabal corporation

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 10:28 | 4005354 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

SEC says ... crucial enforcement will continue

And the difference between continuing enforcement and if it were shutdown is?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 10:30 | 4005361 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

I finally read on KWN the idea i've been spewing for some time.  China and US are in on the suppression and it's because China is stocking up and getting gold on the cheap. The US is going along with it because they know that's the only thing stoping China from dumping US paper.  This is so simple my 9 year old could see it.   Jesus, they have people with signs on the sidewalks trying to get you to sell your gold to this store that just popped up for the sole purpose of buying your gold. They do not sell, i've checked.  Are you people kidding me? Where the hell do people think all of this gold is going?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 11:04 | 4005465 JR
JR's picture

The world is broadening: to fail to heed the build up of power in the Asiatic nations that the multinationals helped fast forward by offshoring America's manufacturing and intellectual base to achieve it, is to ignore, as does the Congress, that China, now Communist, could again be the power it once was and that America and freedom would atrophy and die.

Louis L'Amour writes:

"Seneca had made fiery speches in the Roman forum protesting the adverse balance of trade with India, and the vast sums in gold that were being sent to purchase Indian goods. Some historians have even gone so far as to suggest it was one of the reasons for the decline and fall of the Roman Empire. Certainly it was for some years a contributing factor."

Says L'Amour: "If our civilization should be destroyed now, or should simply die, in five hundred years to a thousand years nothing would remain but a few stone carvings. All of our vaunted machine civilization would have rusted or eroded away and nothing would be left to indicate what we had been and what we had done. Gold alone lasts; silver disappears, as was discoverd in the ruins of UR of the Chaldees."

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 11:39 | 4005615 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

The Fed is an organized crime banking cartel.  They are tied at the hip to the big financial firms in Wall St and the City of London. 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:45 | 4005251 nickels
nickels's picture

The shutdown is a stroke of genius. Non-essential govt workers are to stay home- never to return. Why were we paying for non-essential stuff in the first place?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 11:42 | 4005631 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Unfortunately, the NSA, CIA, FBI, DEA, EPA, BATF, and all the rest of the parasitic jackboots will still be on the job.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 11:58 | 4005660 RKDS
RKDS's picture

Because somebody somewhere (not you, apparently) understands the difference between non-essential and unnecessary?

I say we should fire the air traffic controllers and firemen.  Afterall, I am not flying and my house is not on fire.  Therefore nobody could ever find any use for those people.

Besides, this shutdown is a fraud.  Nothing bad will shut down, just the stuff that benefits the public.  Legislators will still get their unearned perks, bank bailouts won't be disrupted, the adventures will continue (even if soldiers fighting them aren't paid), etc.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 13:31 | 4006158 RKDS
RKDS's picture

So, seriously, I want anybody who junks this to answer a question for me.  If these public employees stay home, do you really think your taxes will go down?  Or do you, like me, expect every last dime of the "savings" to be squandered on more bankster bailouts and foreign adventures?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 14:14 | 4006345 nickels
nickels's picture

I wax sardonic--

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:42 | 4005222 rehypothecator
rehypothecator's picture

Well, Corzine is free, and that's the important thing.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:44 | 4005235 Keyser
Keyser's picture

The only fitting description of the US government for the last 13 years is the image of a monkey fucking a football. While initially entertaining, one would hope that the monkey has more than one trick. 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 12:44 | 4005895 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

That is the monkey's most charming trick. If you're bored with that, it can always fling poop .

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:12 | 4005149 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

shut it down, leave it shut down..

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:40 | 4005221 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

At least the 30-40% we can't afford anyway.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 10:53 | 4005433 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

maybe the truth about gold and silver manipulation will come out now if the governmanet shuts down for a few hours

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:46 | 4005063 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Why are we (they) playing this silly game?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:51 | 4005089 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

why do people play angry birds?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:45 | 4005244 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Insider tip:  The next big game coming down the pike is entitled Game of Drones.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 12:05 | 4005686 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

If it was a TV show I'd watch only if was 'Breaking Bad Banks'...

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 14:13 | 4006338 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Br...Ba

Bad chemistry.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:03 | 4005132 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

Against the desire of most US citizens, they tied us to them with handcuffs, strapped a bomb to our back that they control, and then started pointing the finger at us every time we decide we don't go along with them.  All of this is disgusting.  

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:39 | 4005216 czardas
czardas's picture

At leat they allowed you to bith and yell about it without too much woory.  

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 10:38 | 4005391 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

Czardas,

You believe the US elections actually have anything to do with how the American people vote? If so, do you also believe the stock market would be at these levels if not for Ben Bernanke and his printing machine - Because one has everything to do with other. Critical thinking is the first thing lost in a crumbling Nation. 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:41 | 4005044 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

If you had to vote on whether or not you got a paycheck - what would the outcome be?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:45 | 4005067 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

good question...

but...

will public idiots get last months paycheck or will they only lose next months paycheck?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:58 | 4005113 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

they wont lose any pay checks......they will get their back pay.....

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:55 | 4005099 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

Who needs a paycheck when you have insider trading and PAC money?  Why do you think they are not even bothering to show up for work until 2 o'clock today? Their paycheck is peanuts.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:44 | 4005058 Jannn
Jannn's picture

The Biggest Central Bank Gold Buyers Since 2009 

http://koosjansen.blogspot.nl/2013/09/the-biggest-central-bank-gold-buye...

 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:45 | 4005252 Keyser
Keyser's picture

And the US is not even on the list. Reason being, they have been a net exporting of PMs, pillaging the US reserves.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:43 | 4005052 Millivanilli
Millivanilli's picture
Israel's Netanyahu to press Obama for no let-up on Iran pressure LOL Peace and diplomacy?  Can't have that.   Count on war.  It is on deck.
Mon, 09/30/2013 - 10:00 | 4005277 machineh
machineh's picture

Save the AIPAChyderms! 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:43 | 4005054 J Pancreas
J Pancreas's picture

Moochelle's the one weighing it down.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:49 | 4005074 CaptainObvious
CaptainObvious's picture

If there are any theoretical physicists on this board, please explain to me how it is even possible for a plane to get off the ground with Moochelle's wide load on board.  Or how she can even cram that bulk through the doorway of the plane.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:55 | 4005097 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Operation Dumbo Drop.  

That is my non scientific guess. 

 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:59 | 4005116 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

That's easy. One just has to apply a great enough thrust. A modern jet engine should have no problems with that. Don't underestimate the force such machines can deliver. So in short: You just need enough highly energetic fuel ...

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:04 | 4005137 CaptainObvious
CaptainObvious's picture

Well, shit.  There goes the gubmint's plans for a solar-powered Air Force One.  Way to crush all their dreams, Bearwagon.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:18 | 4005157 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Here's your answer Captain:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_Beluga

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:41 | 4005218 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Thar she...beached?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:42 | 4005225 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

FedEx delivers horses and zoo animals via their dc-10s.
Pilots get used to livestock moving in flight, affecting center of gravity of the aircraft, necessitating constant changes to elevator trim settings.
So it can be done.
There are cargo doors for the answer to your second question.

My question is :

How do they tolerate the smell?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 11:32 | 4005586 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

It seems this stuff partially covers up the foul smell,

http://www.amazon.com/Michelle-Perfume-Premium-Quality-Fragrance/dp/B008...

 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 10:04 | 4005298 chindit13
chindit13's picture

I'm actually a theoretical physicist and a financier, so perhaps I can help. What we've done is go short gravity, rehypothecate lift on a pairs trade, and put Daniel Bernoulli in Guantanamo.  All that and a lot of cross control (left ailerons, right rudder) lets AF1 stay airborne, at least on cold days.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 11:45 | 4005639 Variance Doc
Variance Doc's picture

As an eCONomist, I approve this message.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 10:12 | 4005323 HedgeCock
HedgeCock's picture

The plane may have been modified, fitting it with extra turbofan engines.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 11:24 | 4005539 Lost My Shorts
Lost My Shorts's picture

The way you guys go on and on about Michelle Obama's backside every chance you get, I can't help but wonder if you are ... a little bit, well ... turned on !!  Behind the facade of junior high school ridicule, perhaps there is regret that those (cough cough) other people get the best ass.  Just speculatin.  Don't tase me bro !!

Here is to explain:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmnwRIxVlIU

 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 10:40 | 4009724 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

You can have my share.

I wouldn't let my dog, nor force a convicted felon to breed those (cough, cough ) other "people".

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:21 | 4005161 Zero Point
Zero Point's picture

If so, I bet his freakin dog isn't.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:20 | 4005163 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Blah, Blah, Blah Blah. National news has become a replacement for the demise of daily soap operas. Clever words are coined such as taper and sequester and the ratings skyrocket. This is just another sensationalized story about nothing. The useless turds in DC will "solve" this latest manufactured "crisis" before the next Redskin game. KEEP CALM AND MASTURBATE

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:29 | 4005182 Zero Point
Zero Point's picture

The main purpose of the daily news cycle is to sell advertising.

Even propaganda comes second.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 11:48 | 4005647 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

The main purpose of television is to indoctrinate and convince you that you need to BUY something in order to be happy. 

I couldn't even tell you the last time I watched TV without a 'buffer', ie a way to skip all commercials. 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:48 | 4005254 Ljoot
Ljoot's picture

That gives them two weeks... 'skins are off next week on a bye.

 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 11:06 | 4005474 sister tika
sister tika's picture

So far, this silly-assed petition has 3 signatures.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:38 | 4005040 johnnymustardseed
johnnymustardseed's picture

Democracy is a failure

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:42 | 4005053 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

One Man One Vote is a failure - it breeds Apathy and Contempt. If it is given away free to everyone it ceases to have value

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:47 | 4005072 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Actually the system seems to be holding up fairly well........except for all the screaming freakin hysterics.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:42 | 4005231 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Perhaps One Man One Vote would work if taxpayers were only eligible to vote. There is something about having skin in the game that alters the outcome.

Of course most people would vote to increase their personal paychecks. They don't have the foresight or intelligence to see how in doing so destroys the whole system. One should keep hand grenades away from monkeys.

Miffed;-)

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 10:02 | 4005293 autofixer
autofixer's picture

Yes, democracy is always a failure.  A Republic works until the plebs discover they can vote themselves money and free stuff, then it doesn't. 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:40 | 4005043 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Hey "Representative" Van Hollen:  We are a Constitutional Republic, not a democracy.  No wonder we are in this mess.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:45 | 4005065 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Perhaps you meant we WERE a constitutional republic. Now we're simply a banana republic, which is to say not a republic at all. 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:51 | 4005083 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I will not call the Republic a Democracy.

Write it on the blackboard a 100 times then you can go home Johnny.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:53 | 4005094 CaptainObvious
CaptainObvious's picture

It would be more appropriate if he wrote it 17 trillion times.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:01 | 4005123 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I hope I don't get you for a substitute teacher.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:38 | 4005198 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

You can have me instead: define "representative democracy."

bonus: Give an example.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:42 | 4005207 CaptainObvious
CaptainObvious's picture

A representative democracy is when the people in charge pass laws that benefit only them and their friends who contributed heavily to their campaign chests. 

Example:  Obamacare, from which Congress is exempted and from which big corporations got a one-year delay

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 10:18 | 4005336 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Very good! Now, how can we combat this? Representation of the "demos" wasn't written into the Constitution, surely.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:04 | 4005103 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Yeah sure, "Republic" is probably never mentioned in Common Core curriculum.  Repubic on the other hand...

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:47 | 4005253 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

1776 times

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:35 | 4005192 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

The hell with that, we don't even raise bananas here for export last time I checked. 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:41 | 4005045 heinrich6666
heinrich6666's picture

The American people have no problem with their politicians being a bunch of criminals. Ergo, the American people are criminals.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:01 | 4005120 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

 I disagree. About 49 % of the people have a problem with it.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:20 | 4005164 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

Make that 50%. There's not one time when I speak or post on forums where I don't mention the word Criminal in front of any politicians name or system when I speak or write about them.

I actually misspoke above. I meant to write "partial criminal fascist" shutdown.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 12:35 | 4005838 RKDS
RKDS's picture

Correction.  49% have a problem with _this_ criminal.  Most of them wanted a different one.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:35 | 4005197 Ben Dover
Ben Dover's picture

and they rol model for us that we might become better criminals.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:41 | 4005046 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

More theatre...more last minute bullshit. 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:40 | 4005050 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

So this great Insolvency Shutdown does what exactly ?  The NSA will turn off its computers ? The US Navy will stop fuelling aircraft and put US Marines on half-rations ?  They will dim the lights on Capitol Hill ? 

This is pantomime to introduce some drama into a moribund and decaying political structure. I bet not one Congressional aide misses a pay check.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:23 | 4005170 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

In reality, key functions of the government will continue to operate as before even in the event of a “shut down”.
- Federal air traffic controllers will continue to monitor take offs and landings;
- The TSA will still be screening passengers in US airports;
- The US military will stay on duty and many credit unions and banks will cover their Oct. 15 paychecks if they are delayed;
- Embassies and consulates overseas will continue to provide services to American citizens;
- The mail will continue to be delivered;
- Federal courts will continue to operate;
- The US Supreme Court will continue to operate as normal when it resumes on October 7;
- Taxes will continue to be collected;
- Sales taxes will continue to be collected
- Garbage will continue to be collected;
- Visa services for people traveling to the United States will continue to operate;
- US passport applications will continue to be processed normally;
- Green card applications will continue to be processed normally;
- Social Security and Medicare benefits will continue to operate normally;
- The vast majority of Homeland Security employees will stay on the job;
- The vast majority of Coast Guard employees will stay on the job;
- The vast majority of Border Patrol agents will stay on the job;
- The vast majority of Secret Service personnel and other law enforcement agents and officers will stay on the job;
- Schools will stay open;
- The National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center will continue to issue natural disaster warnings and track storms;
- The Mars Rover will continue to explore the red planet and the International Space Station will continue to operate;
- The District of Columbia passed a $144m contingency fund on Friday to ensure all its services would continue to operate normally;
- Most services managed by the Department of Veterans Affairs will continue.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:31 | 4005185 CaptainObvious
CaptainObvious's picture

So all that is going to shut down is the really visible stuff, like closing the National Parks.  This is the equivalent of the cessation of White House tours after the sequester.  Punish the public for the GOP's failure to concede to Obomber's every whim.  It's like we put a child king on the throne and he's on the palace floor in front of his throne kicking and screaming because the council wouldn't let him kick a peasant's donkey in the ass.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:38 | 4005201 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

Yes, if you haven't noticed, we're bing governed by Children. Criminal yes, but sad but true.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 10:17 | 4005329 mt paul
mt paul's picture

don't be kicking 

honkey the donkey

 

he might kick back...

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 12:45 | 4005901 DaveA
DaveA's picture

Time to sneak into a National Park and score some free meat.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:50 | 4005051 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I haven't seen any reason in that list as to why I should be corcerned if a few hundred people in Washington take a few days off. I wish they'd shut it down completety so the American people would see that we can get along just fine without them.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:42 | 4005055 Bryan
Bryan's picture

Whatever.  The US Government will never default (just print into oblivion).  The debt ceiling will always be raised at the 11th hour.  The government will never 'shut down' for more than is politically necessary to get a point across.  It's all political games at this point -- the whole kit and kabooki.  We have entered an age with instant communication, where everyone knows immediately when the emperor has no clothes, but no one cares as long as they get their handout.  Shameful.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:35 | 4005193 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

Yes, The system is criminal, run by criminals & owned by criminals.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:42 | 4005057 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

The shut down is today! I thought it was tomorrow. They are keeping it real?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:45 | 4005061 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

THIS WILL BE A DISASTER FOR AMERICAN TOURISME WHEN THE NATIONAL PARKS SHUT DOWN!!!!

 

but... you guys can start plan B....

 

Culinairy tourisme...

 

all you guys need to do... is make food... that isn't a hamburger or tortilla....

good luck with that...

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:44 | 4005062 xamax
xamax's picture

SHUT DOWN OBAMA & BERNANKE

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:46 | 4005064 gimli
gimli's picture

...... and why aren't Gold & Silver skyrocketing? ..... Oh yea ...... I remember now, 'cause Bart is frustrated.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:47 | 4005070 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

why isn't gold and silver at a dollar yet...

I keep dry powder just in case they manage a 30% drop in PM's 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:50 | 4005078 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

I really liked the part of the article which said "SEC says EDGAR system, crucial enforcement will continue". The phrase crucial enforcement apparently translates to viewing online porn.

 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:52 | 4005091 gimli
gimli's picture

Which basically implies that investing in porn is a much safer investment then investing in precious metals. 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 10:01 | 4005286 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

look we are all .gov workers, those of us who pay taxes, most here on zh work for the "man in dc"..and the boss don't take no back talk, and he wants 30% + of every productive cent..the mafia calls it" Protection money"..hmm seems .gov calls it that too, (TSA?HSA?DEPT DEF/EPA/OSHA all for our protection) .gov will protect our freedoms until we all are in jail or are just another brown shirt.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:40 | 4005219 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

The whole thing is sort of anti climatic anymore. They take off, you get all excited thinking "she's goona run this time" and boom the next day it gets knocked down when some dumb fuck with a mic, probably talking from his gold shitter, makes a comment that sends it into oblivion.

Kind of like when you don't get laid that often, the foreplay is pretty good, your thinking "damn" and then when it's all said and done, "meh, that was ok" and you fall back asleep.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:41 | 4005220 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

dup

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:45 | 4005066 CaptainObvious
CaptainObvious's picture

"One main concern of a delay to both a 2014 budget and raising the debt ceiling is the possibility of a credit rating downgrade of the US sovereign"

Delay a 2014 budget?  Hell, I'm still waiting for the budgets from 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013.  But yes, by all means, let's try to preserve the illusion that the gubmint is fiscally responsible by raising the debt ceiling and making it possible for our grandkids to have a seven-figure share of the national debt.  Six-figures is so last decade.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:50 | 4005084 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

WE MUST MAKE SURE THAT PEOPLE DON'T THINK WE CAN'T PAY OUR BILLS!!!

THAT'S WHY WE NEED TO PRINT MORE MONEY OUT OF THIN AIR TO PAY THEM!!!!

like playing monopoly where you're oponent has a laser printer next to him where he can print all the money he needs and confiscate all the landplots you have when he wants to...

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:56 | 4005105 CaptainObvious
CaptainObvious's picture

Ahhh, but in Monopoly, all players start off on an equal footing.  You and I have never been on an equal footing with the elites.  If the nation were a real-life version of Monopoly, you and I would start with -$1500 in Monopoly money and the elites would start with hotels on Boardwalk and Park Place.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:49 | 4005079 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

What?! No tanks in the street at seven 'o clock?! In that case - "the budget you called is temporarily not available". Dorks ...

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:50 | 4005081 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

They'll probably slap together a deal and do a dog and pony show right before Monday Night Football. No way they'll interrupt that.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:51 | 4005082 thelonegunman
thelonegunman's picture

'exceptionalism' in full bloom

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:52 | 4005086 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"[SEC says] crucial enforcement will continue"

Uh huh.  They've been doing such a bang-up job of it so far.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:02 | 4005127 CaptainObvious
CaptainObvious's picture

Free Jon Corzine!

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:10 | 4005146 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Done.....anything else?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:50 | 4005087 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

If the government is still spending money it does not have, then it is not a fucking "shutdown".  Please, more kabuki theater...

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:54 | 4005100 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

But if businesses do it, then they're just "plucky" (pats JCP gently on it's pointed head).

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:02 | 4005128 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

That which cannot be sustained, won't be. 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:52 | 4005090 The Reich
The Reich's picture

Tomorrrow is just another D-Day

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:54 | 4005093 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

If "credit ratings" meant anything (especially for nations with their own currencies), then this continual display of complete incompetence would surely drag us down to CCC+.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 10:34 | 4005373 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Well, if "credit ratings" meant anything - Egan Jones should be allowed to rate the mess ...   ;-)

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:00 | 4005098 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Shut down the Useless FDR site in Hyde Park! It gets bigger every yr. This is their Grandaddy who got us here..

 

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_0CrEkeCBSU...

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:33 | 4005101 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

market will fall 1% today, the gov't will shutdown at midnight, and then around 9am tomorrow they will agree on a budget and the market with rip higher by 3%. 

If they couldn't taper a couple billions w/o the risk of the economy imploding, there is no way the shutdown will last more than one business day. 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:57 | 4005106 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

In other words, if 'guvt shutdown', then the people actually get a period of freedom?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:58 | 4005112 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Not exactly; they'll still be up and running in April.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:02 | 4005126 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well, isn't that 'a period'?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 10:37 | 4005381 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

No, but I'll help out with an example: You shall get no freedom. Period!

See the difference?  ;-)

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:36 | 4005195 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

Freedom, we don't need no stinkin freedom

remember when a gov't couldn't function w/o an economy?  they sure turned that around quick. 

 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 08:58 | 4005111 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

the clowns only know how to print and spend.   they have no reason to exist otherwise. 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:00 | 4005115 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Here are a couple of choices:

 

1) Cut the bottom 32% of expenditures.  No doubt now one can agree so this one is unlikley

2) Cut 32% from every gov department.

3) Stop paying interest on debt (not sure what percent that is) and cut each department the balance %.

 

And I dont even have a Phd in ECON!!

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:01 | 4005119 SystemOfaDrown
SystemOfaDrown's picture

Correct statement is: Fascism is a Succeeding!

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:01 | 4005121 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Life would be so much more peaceful if they would shut it down. Just let the States handle it. Why do we need to throw away money on a bloated mlitary or Boner's pink ties or Obama's love boys. Do you really care what Michelle thinks? Better dead than Reid? MoConnell or O'Donnell. Is there a single "leader" worth following? Is there a single honest banker? Is there a single currency worth holding?

We don't owe our wealth to the government, we have it INSPITE of the government. Our labor is too valuable to give the zionists a percentage of our every transaction for being nothing but evil. We treat dying and diseased animals better. Euthanasia is the kindest action we could perform for the United States Federal government.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:04 | 4005135 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

I liked your commnet.  One thing people forget is the world will not end: There is local government funded by local citizens.  The local sheriff and firedepartment will still be open.

Now I admit, warrantless FBI home invasions, DEA firearms trafficking, Drone surveillance will be cut back significantly..

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:00 | 4005122 Charles Nelson ...
Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

aaaaaanddd gold gets hit again this morning. Fucking amateurs!

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:32 | 4005189 bustdrs
bustdrs's picture

right on cue. Just penning paper to clients as a quarterly service and trying to keep it positive by saying doesn't everyone know there is another trillin behind this trillin so everythings ok.

I mean really! It;s just so fucken unbeliwvable that PM's get hamerred in this environment it beggars belief. if you follow the numbers you may notice how contract volumes on the CRIMEX are dwindeling rapidly. No one wants paper gold there either....and still it goes down until there's no gold left in the Western main stream vaults,  and by then, the bankers have taken back the worthless miners, as Fonz suggests.

Capitulation.

 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:00 | 4005124 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Just as one troubleshoots an electrical circuit by testing each part of the circuit and seeing if it is the one that blows the fuse, lets track the net effects of shutting down government, department by department. My guess is that 80+% of it can be shut down without anyone really noticing. Take just two departments, Dept. of Education and Dept. of Labor. What do they do? Anyone know? Well, let's see if anyone notices their disappearance.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:02 | 4005131 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, what they're really scared of is people would realize around 95% of the govt gone would mean nothing to anyone.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:14 | 4005153 DFCtomm
DFCtomm's picture

Have either of you looked at a pie chart of what our government spends money on? Discretionary spending, which includes the dept of labor and education, makes up an incredibly small portion of that pie.  There are really only three main areas that matter: military, entitlements, and interest. If you don't touch those then you don't do anything that really matters. That doesn't mean that I'm against shutting down useless government agencies, but you have to see the big picture.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:30 | 4005184 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Point well taken. But military and interest are under the control of foreign banksters so they wlll be the toughest to perge.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:41 | 4005217 DFCtomm
DFCtomm's picture

The amount going to the military, and interest has already been cut by the sequester. Most entitlements were exempt, with the notable exception of medicare, but the affordable care act is designed to replace that, eventually. Guess those foreign banksters aren't all that after all.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:40 | 4005212 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

DFCtomm...you think the U.S. military is under the control of the U.S. govt?

Talk about not getting 'the big picture'.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:03 | 4005133 DFCtomm
DFCtomm's picture

The Democrats want the shutdown. They want to undo the sequester, and when the heat is on the GOP will cave and give them that.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:14 | 4005154 Mototard at Large
Mototard at Large's picture

Actually, neither side wants to deal with issue of over spending, so both sides are simply looking for a way to blame the other.

Kindergarden politics at its finest.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:47 | 4005255 CaptainObvious
CaptainObvious's picture

At least in kindergarten, there is a teacher to oversee the fight over whose turn it is with the building blocks.  In conclusion:  we're so fucked.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:04 | 4005134 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

ruh roh raggy

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 09:07 | 4005142 whirling tword ...
whirling tword freedom's picture

If the fucking government wasn't spending 40% more than they're taking in then, there would be no need to raise the fucking debt ceiling.

Our government needs to live like the rest of us.  If you don't make it then, don't spend it.  If you can't afford to take out the loan and pay it off, don't take the loan.

We're so far past that....  

My father was in WWII and right when he got back, he had my oldest brother.... I guess he could be considered one of the first boomer kids.... He's 62yrs old now... We're going to learn what unfunded liabilities are soon... in a real big way.  He and millions of others will retire and demand their benefits that they've been paying into their whole life. 

We're about to have a massive amount of boomers retiring starting almost any time now that will strain the already strained system we have.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 11:11 | 4005489 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

Cutting the overspending would result in deflation...if deflation hits then all banks go belly up.

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