Global Growth Hopes Fade As Baltic Dry Drops Most In 11 Months

Tyler Durden's picture


While the recent surge in the Baltic Dry Index was headlined as 'proof' that the global recovery was 'on', China is back, and every retiree should BTFATH, we recently noted, all was not at all it seems on the surface of this data. Fast forward a few days and we have had 2 China PMI misses (notably disappointing relative to their Flash prints) and now the Baltic Dry has plunged by its most in 11 months over the last 4 days. Of course, we've seen these kind of ramps and dumps before in the Baltic Dry - though it is odd that we don't hear the cheerleaders as the price collapses.


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Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:25 | 4011066 TeamDepends
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This can only mean one thing.  DOW 16000!!!

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 18:36 | 4011867 Crash Overide
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Did Walmart's Link-carders switch to the Dollar Store? Boo fucking hoo...

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:29 | 4011074 hedgeless_horseman
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...though it is odd that we don't hear the cheerleaders as the price collapses.

Technically speaking, are not all transportation indices are transitory?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:33 | 4011113 LawsofPhysics
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Is it too late to BTFATH?  < sarc of > Shit, I switched from a "return on captial" to a "return of capital" apporoach to investing a long time ago.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:54 | 4011228 Manthong
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that was an important indicator only back when fundamentals and technicals mattered in price action.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 16:03 | 4011270 lasvegaspersona
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Doing 'god's work' does not require shiping.

The USA is in the businees of exporting our financial greatness....until the rest of the world decides it is really just empty promises that will never allow wealth to be had by the holder.

At that point we loose about ...what..20% of GDP...and we have to apy for our imports with exports...other than electrons.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 16:08 | 4011309 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

More to the point, yes, the current GDP of the U.S.S.A. includes 30% paper-pushing.  you know, financial "products" of mass destruction.

hedge accordingly.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 17:57 | 4011759 butchee
butchee's picture

Manthing is correct....the baltic dry is no longer relevant for too many reasons....the main one being is that there are farr to many vessels bringing shit to all the tapped out debt vassals.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:29 | 4011075 Grande Tetons
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This is great news for Germany! They can charter a steamer to NYC and easily pick up their gold. 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:29 | 4011082 hedgeless_horseman
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..."their" gold.  As if.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:33 | 4011106 Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture

What time is it?

Rampalooza time!  boys and girls.

Just get on the bus and let the nice bald and bearded bus driver do his job!

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:35 | 4011117 Grande Tetons
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Fuck it. I am going with no ramp today. It is a brave call. 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:40 | 4011138 Frozen IcQb
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It's an ugly bus but don't step in front of it. It's still a bus.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:50 | 4011189 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

if the reps continue to be insolent

someone will make the market crash


Tue, 10/01/2013 - 16:08 | 4011301 Frozen IcQb
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The Wizard of Froz is humble today. It's not a ramp. It looks more like a tower.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 16:18 | 4011337 Grande Tetons
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As of 3:30 EST your ramp looks more like Kate Moss sunbathing under the West Texas sun. 


Tomoorow is another day. 

Retract. Apprently, Kevin left the audition at 3:59. Little fucker. 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 16:20 | 4011367 Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture


Tue, 10/01/2013 - 16:22 | 4011374 Grande Tetons
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Got me.  Good call. 


That little fucker.  

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 16:03 | 4011274 Grande Tetons
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Apparently, Kevin Henry had an audition at 3:30 for the part of body double in the remake of the 1980 film Cruising. 


No ramp today. 

I think Kevin will have a hard time sitting at his terminal tommorow. 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 16:07 | 4011302 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

ummmm, that was quite the last 45 second ramp

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 23:37 | 4012882 Sovereign Economist
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Grande Tetons wrote:  "...This is great news for Germany! They can charter a steamer to NYC and easily pick up their gold. "

Easily?  Hmmm, maybe not!  In the shutdown, there are no government personnel available to help them get it out of the government building...  Ah HA!  So, now we know the REAL REASON for the government shutdown....   and YOU thought it was just politics!!!!

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:37 | 4011121 buzzsaw99
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wtf are you talking about willis? BALT has been on a tear since the beginning of the year.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 16:12 | 4011325 French Frog
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Don't get me wrong, I love ZH, but you made the point clearer than I could have hoped to do....

My first reaction was "how low can the BDI go?" and then I realised that, as has been the case for the last 3-4 years, the 'good' news about the BDI has been absent as it has been steadily climbing for 6 months+ and is now back to summer 2011 levels, yet we have heard very little about that.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:11 | 4012201 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

My first reaction was "how low can the BDI go?"

"when you look at something negative for so long..... the government will change it to a positive!".   

Does the BDI seem to correalate with the shitty economy? NOPE!!


Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:37 | 4011125 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture


Two months before the holiday orgy of buying useless crap from China?

Perhaps retailers are going light on inventory because they know the economy sucks?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:40 | 4011133 NOZZLE
NOZZLE's picture

You'd think with all the Dollars that Bukakke is printing and shipping to Europe it would have a postive effect on shipping.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:54 | 4011220 Nikola
Nikola's picture

Chinese Christmas light/decoration shipments now out the door and index drops?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 18:35 | 4011298 Goldilocks
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Futurama: Bender's Big Score (2007)

"Nah, Nah Nah Nah, Hey, Hey, We took your stuff!"

Nah Nah Nah Hey Hey Hey Goodbye Edited (2:21)

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 16:10 | 4011326 NOTaREALmerican
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Who needs growth when you've got infinite "Keynesian" debt?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 16:23 | 4011375 assistedliving
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BDI anticipating the loss of BS carried on SUPRAMAX ex Washington/Baltimore due to government shutdown.

VLCC = very large Cruz carrier


Tue, 10/01/2013 - 17:06 | 4011577 CheapBastard
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Tue, 10/01/2013 - 18:09 | 4011803 10PastMidnight
10PastMidnight's picture

all that last minute prepping must have paid off for the shippers, but it looks like everyones bought up now and heading for the hills.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:12 | 4011958 orangegeek
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There's no more tankers left to fill up with excess oil production and there wasn't any activity prior to this oil fraud.  And so BDI tanks - watch oil go next.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:54 | 4012377 Keloid
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Is it okay to cheat if playing a game with other compulsive cheaters? I consider it mandatory.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!