Goldman's Global Leading Indicator Plunges Back To "Slowdown"

Tyler Durden's picture


Everything looked so good in August. Goldman's global leading indicator (GLI) "swirlogram" had recovered quickly from a 'growth scare' in Q1 and was holding firmly in "expansion" territory. Then reality hit as new-orders-less-inventories worsened, various manufacturing surveys rolled over, industrial metals gave up gains, and Korean exports provided no help. Among the few factors holding up the index from already plunging levels was the Baltic Dry Index (which has collapsed now in the last few days) and Consumer Confidence (which appears to also be rolling over). September's plunge into "slowdown" for the GLI is the biggest drop in 8 months.



Chart: Goldman Sachs

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Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:39 | 4012520 abatis
abatis's picture

All these crazy events. Even GS can get suprised ;)

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:47 | 4012550 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

The red line looks positively flaccid to me.


Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:57 | 4012573 TwoShortPlanks
Wed, 10/02/2013 - 10:33 | 4013145 French Frog
French Frog's picture

The Goldman's 'Swirlogram' has been made to dip voluntarily into a negative figure purely to suck in shorts in preparation for the end-of-the-year ramp...(i.e., as is well known in here, do the opposite of Goldman's 'pretend' research)!

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 05:08 | 4013124 Sudden Debt
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Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:38 | 4012525 Truther
Truther's picture

Crash it already. I hate anticipation and don't like Goldman either. GOt FIZZZ BITCHEZ?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:40 | 4012526 DoChenRollingBearing
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Gold and cash.

Physical gold and real green linen notes.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:42 | 4012531 TaperProof
TaperProof's picture

but i thought they said the economy was picking up and the fed can taper soon and gold was going to $900?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:44 | 4012542 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

they went 1 for 3

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:44 | 4012544 booboo
booboo's picture

This is bullish correct? I mean Corp. profits should skyrocket with employee cost cratering, soon to be rid of health care, mass layoffs, employee legacy cost evaporating into the ether and then BANG, market craters cause no one is buying shit.

I had this same experience once, pouring the coals to this fine young girl and then her dog jumps on the bed and throws his tongue right up the tail pipe, put a hole in the drywall with my head right above the head board.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:47 | 4012553 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

Now that's a damn funny comment!!!!!!!!!!


Wed, 10/02/2013 - 06:46 | 4013171 kurt
kurt's picture

Favorite Post-o-the-Week

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:51 | 4012561 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

Let me boil anything GS related down to one simple statement. This statement works for ANY GS investment advice on any topic.

"When GS Says Zig, you had damn well better Zag.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 00:19 | 4012958 it aint easy
it aint easy's picture


Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:59 | 4012586 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Goldman has the "trust" of the US investors.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:01 | 4012594 webspin
webspin's picture

zero-hedge...because you all have zero to hedge! Greatest bull market in history...missed! "Gonna crash any day now....any day....yup, any day now."

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:05 | 4012606 SpykerSpeed
SpykerSpeed's picture

I'm a libertarian/anarcho-capitalist, but I totally agree with this sentiment.  It's funny to me watching people load up on silver at $40 and then the price collapsing to $19 and their first reaction is:  "OMG THE BANKERS ARE USING PAPER CONTRACTS TO FORCE THE PRICE DOWN, THAT'S NOT THE REAL PRICE".

It sure as fuck is the real price.  You're in absolute denial if you think the mere existence of a paper contract market for a commodity can hold the price artificially low for years on end.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:22 | 4012669 One And Only
One And Only's picture

I had your sentiment once upon a time.

Than I saw LIBOR, IG9, HFT, Pre-FED trading, Corzine, etc. I realized there is no depth to their depravity and they will do surprisingly blatant things that I didn't expect to see...and get away with it. this day no bankers are in jail for all the fraud and the cacophony of shennanigans.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:23 | 4012673 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I don't have a horse in that race, but you don't really have an argument in that post.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 01:01 | 4013002 joego1
joego1's picture

It's the price until the music stops.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:17 | 4012648 Otrader
Otrader's picture

I've seen a couple postings in the past few days saying ZH causes people to miss market runups, etc.   This is a stupid statement.  ZH is showing you how it's done.  I've actually learned a lot from reading the posts here. All this positive market activity is one giant clusterf**k for the tax paying citizenry.  The rose colored glasses you're given is helping fund the largest wealth transfer from poor to the rich.  Sure we can leech behind them and pick up the crumbs, but in the end we all WILL lose.

You can try to stay in and play with the big boys (like I have ) but keep the stops tight and keep your eyes open. If anything, I've been to able to guage my trades better with all this info.  Pick up the crumbs while you can, becuase what lies ahead (eventually) with this crazy over subsidized market is not pretty. 


Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:20 | 4012667 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Good thing there's no such thing as contraction.


Tue, 10/01/2013 - 23:16 | 4012833 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

At least the contractions on the swirl chart have not started yet.

Who knows what will pop out ?   It could be a pretty swirling volcano !

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 00:05 | 4012932 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

But MSM said tonight everything is 'great!'

House prices up all sales up all over...stocks up all over.....more immigrants then ever lining up for free student loans, free Obama-care, free food, free cell phones and free housing in LA they said..."this is a good sign" MSM said...

The next [very attractive] host said Merck was firing another 8,500 top researchers and scientists after recently axing 7,500 of their scientists....."That's good news," the short-dressed analyst said. She said the pharma company will now be "more know, slimmer and trimmer."

Golly. I need to see these things like they bright and lively & full of sunshine all the time all over.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 06:42 | 4013169 kurt
kurt's picture

The BDI has been and is deader than Schrodinger's Cat.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 06:59 | 4013182 luckylongshot
luckylongshot's picture

What you should add is that the slowdown is due in part to Goldmans market manipulations, which could lead to a nice little group of their executives going to prison.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 07:32 | 4013219 macambaman
macambaman's picture

The sacred swirlogram says sell paper gold, buy physical.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 07:51 | 4013249 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

Thanks for that, Tyler.

It's been a long time.

I was going into "swirlogram withdrawl".

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