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Someone Is Getting Very Nervous

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A look at the stocks surge today and one would get the impression that not only should the government shutdown be permanent (closing the Fed would have a vastly different result on the S&P), but that the debt ceiling is completely irrelevant and immaterial for risk assets. One would get a far different impression by looking at today's just concluded 4-Week Bill auction. Today's outlier rate on the just priced $35 billion in 4-week bills can be seen quite dramatically on the chart below, and is evidence that someone (or someones) is getting quite nervous ahead of the events in the next few weeks.

What is going on here and why the spike? Recall what we said a week ago in "Here Is How To Trade The Debt Ceiling Showdown."

... there is a simple pair trade for those who would like to position for a contentious debt ceiling fight with an ETA mid-October and skip the bipolar and HFT-dominated equity markets. Recall that in the summer of 2011 when the last big debt ceiling debacle loomed and resulted in a last minute outcome that also led to the downgrade of the US by a rating agency that has since sold out, rates of bills due just before the debt ceiling D-Date soared, while those sufficiently after the ceiling interval tightened. Well, the same trade is just as applicable this time.

 

Sell October 31 Bills versus 12 Month Bills

 

Supply dynamics and potential market concerns around a debt ceiling stand-off in Washington should push the 1M1Y bill curve flatter... The October 31 bills are likely the most vulnerable, and should cheapen significantly versus 12 month bills in a protracted fight.

 

One-month and three month bills are already trading close to zero, having briefly traded negative last week. With bill supply to remain flat heading into the end of October, suggesting that supply should keep bills yields across the curve under pressure. With bill yields largely beholden to supply dynamics, the greatest scope for further compression is in year bills, which are currently trading around 10bp. Given historical relationship between bills yields and bills outstanding, year bills are roughly 3bp rich to supply-implied fair value, while 3-month bills are about 3.5bp rich.

 

This trade may be difficult to put on in size until after quarter end due to dealers balance sheet constraints. But as noted above, we believe that the market will not begin to fully price the risk to front end bills until about two weeks before the end date. We expect the opportunity to remain available at for the first week of October.

Sure enough, today is the first day of the next quarter (window dressing is over), and the bond market, if not so much the stock market, has finally awakened that the government shutdown is merely an indication of just how contenuous the debt ceiling negotiation very likely ill be, and that it is increasingly likely that the X-Date of October 18 may come and go without a deal, which just may result in a technical default on the nearest maturity Bills.

End result: today's auction was an absolute abortion and absent some deus ex machina agreement between the GOP and Democrats, one can expect the October 31 bills (and others just around them) to continue blowing wider as quietly but confidently those holding the most at risk paper exit stage left.

But that's not all. We also noted the following:

The last go-round, the 1m1y curve flattened to 3bp. Though the curve is just 6bp away from that right now, it is beginning from a starting point that is 10bp flatter than one month prior to the 2011 debt ceiling. The securities that the market viewed as “at risk” traded with yields above year bills, hence our recommendation to sell the October 31 issue rather than the current one month bills.

 

 

We think that the curve has scope to flatten to zero, if not further, depending on how close to the wire negotiations come.

As of moments ago, the curve has gone beyond flat and into "further" as the 1M1Y just went negative.

 

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Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:23 | 4010456 maskone909
maskone909's picture

i dont know... this is a short term reaction

government workers are a major sourve of velocity for that gubmint cheese. 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:38 | 4010532 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

The budget WAR has been lost.  Now all that is left is for grandstanding, useless budget battles.  The Republicans seem to not understand that the war is lost.  All there is to do now is see how much spending is needed to at least maintain the status quo, fill a few potholes, cut a few benefits and wait til the final default.  This is a math problem now as the interest has a life of its own which won't be affected by petty frugalness.  We should be investing in whatever will make life bearable during rebuilding...

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:46 | 4010562 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

"This is a math problem now as the interest has a life of its own which won't be affected by petty frugalness."

Well said.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:29 | 4010760 bagehot99
bagehot99's picture

Excellent point.

But it is 'frugality' not 'frugalness'. 

Picking nits is how I overcome the overwhelming sense of dread within me, that idiots like Barack Obama induce.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:35 | 4010793 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

The rates are microscopic, but the Arb in me loves this shit.

Well done, Tylers.

My take home from this is not so much about politics.  Ain't nobody worried about inflation.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:50 | 4010820 CClarity
CClarity's picture

That's a "vote". Bill traders not sure they'll be paid by Treas within 30 days. Curve inversion coming.
Of course, no one will pay attention. But watch repo t-bills rates get Very weird!

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:51 | 4012121 Landrew
Landrew's picture

When is the last time you said inverted yield the seventies? I can't believe it!

1 Mo 3 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr     0.10 0.02 0.04 0.10 0.33 0.66 1.42 2.04 2.66 3.43 3.7
Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:55 | 4012570 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Nervous isn't the half of it.

Gold will rebalance the sum of all Fiat expansion

http://twoshortplanksunplugged.blogspot.com.au/2013/10/gold-will-rebalance-sum-of-all-fiat.html

 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:56 | 4012778 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ $100,000

You write interesting stuff, TSP...

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 00:58 | 4012998 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

OMO glitch. They weren't sure which "quasi" federal agencies to send the shutdown memo to so they pulled from a hat and sent one to the NY Fed.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:06 | 4012175 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

I feel silly saying this because history thinks I am wrong, but there will be no inflation.

I suspect the US aggregate GDP implodes this year or next in a run-away deflationary death spiral. We are so far out on the ledge on this one it blows my mind. Bernanke is printing like a crazed terrorist, with no effect. The amount of money and paper wealth being destroyed on a daily basis must be simply colossal.

He cannot keep it up. The moment he turns back the spigot the black hole of domestic implosion will suck America into the vacuum of economic deep space from which this country might not emerge for 100 years. And then, might not emerge as a country.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:14 | 4012209 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

I'll second that.

Wages are a black hole.  Small business is dead in the water.  Consumer debt is dropping thanks to write-offs and foreclosures, woo-hoo.

The Bernank can't produce profits or income, but he sure shot the shit out of interest income.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:16 | 4012222 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

What The Fed and the TBTF institutions did here may well one day be counted as among the greatest acts of collective insanity ever witnessed in human history.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:16 | 4012650 lewy14
lewy14's picture

Yes, but it was a brilliant insanity.

If someone had told you in Oct 2008 that two plus trillion would be printed over the coming five years, and had asked you what inflation would be then, and where the dollar would be, would you have guessed correctly?

Yes, Ben saw that printing would not create inflation. It would plug a hole, buy time, avert a panic.

So he printed.

Problem is... well, now what?

I see the status quo as a ship at sea, not taking on water, but throwing ballast overboard... becoming top heavy; one fine day a wave will come...

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 04:59 | 4013119 lewy14
lewy14's picture

Down-arrowed myself for associating Bernanke with "brilliance", however qualified. Was pretty sure someone was going to do it for me, but I had to step in.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 06:08 | 4013153 bubblemania
bubblemania's picture

Why can't Bernank keep printing, I saw Bullard on CNBC a few months ago and he said they were far from the limits of expanding the balance. The FOMC lookes to Japan as the model, more than 250% debt to GDP, QE for 12 years; there is no hyperinflation there or any other disasters. The Keynsians are just getting started.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 23:37 | 4012889 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Actually there is a difference between the Weimar Republic Hyperinflation and the Hyperinflation which I forecast for the United States.

 

The people in the USA do not have the Wages nor the Savings to fuel a Hyperinflationary Event. I will give you that as a caveat because it is the Truth.

 

However there are $12 Trillion Dollars sitting in the vaults of Foreign Central Banks. And when they lose CONFIDENCE in the US Dollar those $12 Trillion will come back to the USA shores seeking every Good and Service not nailed down.

 

That is where the Potential Energy is stored for a Hyperinflationary Meltdown of the United States Economy. While we can control the spending of our own population we cannot control the divestiture of Foreign Central Bank holdings of US Dollars.

 

Think about it.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 00:41 | 4012982 Rick64
Rick64's picture

 The biggest and most important difference is the reserve currency status. It's the enabler.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 01:55 | 4013039 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

It's the enabler.

Until it's not.  Coming soon to a "theater" to you.  What type of theater (Aurora or Iran)?  Stay tuned...

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:16 | 4012216 Landrew
Landrew's picture

I totally agree! The shear destruction of capital is something I never thought possible. To print that much money with zero effect makes me question how far this goes, money funneled to Spain, Italy, Japan? Nothing makes sense mathmatically nothing at all. 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:08 | 4012426 Arius
Arius's picture

..Greece, you forgot Greece ... thats where all this started with those lazy greeks.  if they had not been in trouble so many times this thing would have never started and everything would have been all right.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:16 | 4012451 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Go tell the Spartans,

stranger passing by,

that here, obedient to American law

we lie.

 

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 01:35 | 4012714 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Regarding the interesting & highly debatable comments dealing with the inflation -vs- deflation topic:

The banking/financial sector is being kept on life support via consumption of the fiat credit Bernanke is depositing into their till on a perpetual basis.

That is where electronic fiat has been going to perish for the last 4 years; a VAST black hole of fiat credit destruction, to offset the still ginormous shadow banking liabilities.

What will trigger a tsunami of deflationary waves is when Bernanke's "Virtuous Circular" (circular in logic, too) equity market reflationary effort gets kneecapped since there's no "there" there (nothing of inherent value exists there; it's a 100% faith based Ponzi scheme that inevitably will topple - AND IT'S BUILT ON AN UNPRECEDENTED MOUNTAIN OF LEVERAGE).

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:32 | 4012700 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

"the black hole of domestic implosion will suck America into the vacuum of economic deep space from which this country might not emerge for 100 years. And then, might not emerge as a country."

That, would be a sign of the utmost stupidity. You see, none of it is real. Its all bullshit, paper and keystrokes stored in computers. The banksters and their paid off whore politicians have used their little games to bankrupt people in their fiat paper ponzi scheme. And now people are willing to enslave themselves, their children, and grandchildren because they actually think the 'debts' are real ?  (They didn't loan you anything - - they made it up out of thin air. And, theyve been stealing hand over fist for decades.)

This will be a test of how stupid people are and how effectively the 'schools' & media have brainwashed them to be slaves. If they had any sense the banksters and traitor politicians would be in jail and the 'debts' would be repudiated and the productive capacity of the people restored. Create a country with low taxes/government interference and truly free markets and it will thrive.  People are imprisoned by their own limited vision.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:51 | 4012765 seek
seek's picture

I agree, there won't be inflation. There will be hyperinflation. It's normally preceded by the deflationary death spiral you mentioned. We are following the pattern very closely now.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 23:04 | 4012803 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Indeed, deflation and then hyperinflation seems to be the normal pattern in history.  Reinhardt and Rogoff's This Time is Different shows us bubbles and their aftermath for some 800 years.  Small taste: the aftermath is ugly and goes a long time.

"And there is nothing new under the sun."

Ecclesiastes 1:9

***

That is why diversification is so important.  Not just owning gold.  Silver too!  Cash.  Guns & ammo (never know).  Food & water (ideally the ability to produce both, which I do not have).  A place to go if you can...

Getting your spiritual life in order cannot hurt either, but that is a topic for some other time...

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:22 | 4010725 Stuart
Stuart's picture

What budget?  

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:43 | 4011148 Deo vindice
Deo vindice's picture

Great question. Doesn't the word 'budget' imply a limit on spending? Does it not imply a restrictive boundary on one's purchases?

What limit and what restriction is there if every time I want to spend money I just either print or borrow more with no moral compulsion to repay it?

Using the term 'budget' is a misnomer for what is actually going on with our governments, which is nothing short of a wild spending spree with someone else's money without the slightest intention to ever pay it back.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:06 | 4012422 tbd108
tbd108's picture

The proper word is "whoopee."

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 23:07 | 4012814 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Deo v

I am pleased you decided to stay with us here.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 03:00 | 4013062 Deo vindice
Deo vindice's picture

Thanks DoChen. It was in a search for you that led me here.

So it's kind of your fault ;-)

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:14 | 4010670 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

The "war" won't be over until there is no tax income over which to fight.

Or, the war will end when the States no longer recognize the Federal governement and go it alone, keeping all their taxes at home and providing critical services themselves.

Then, key Counties will pull away, killing their respective States.

This is going to be a very important process. It might happen very quickly.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:25 | 4010746 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

There will be blood and guillotines.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:32 | 4010781 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

If that was all there was, I'd be grateful. But I'm afraid someone out there has got a lot worse than that up their sleeves. 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:59 | 4010920 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

What you are describing, knowing or unknowingly, is a shift toward anarchy. Self-governance on the individual level is probably too extreme to have a functional and productive society (though I may be proven wrong), but county level governance? Count me in! If I'm going to pay for somebody's clown car I'd prefer they are within arm's length.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 16:46 | 4011504 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

or neck's length as the case may be...

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:19 | 4011999 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

I'm just fine governing myself. Thanks for trying to convince me to accept the lesser evil though.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:28 | 4012026 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

My expectation is that regardless of what happens at the Federal level, the Federal government is now toast. Finished. Stick a fork in it. Washington DC can continue to collect itself, various shady agencies can pretend to provide services, but the model appears to have utterly failed. Only mindless momentum will carry it forward, and not for long.

State governments will attempt to replace some of the functions provided by Federal government. This will be a matter of necessity and opportunity, nothing more. States will take over large and critical flood control and irrigation projects, highway systems, financial and corporate regulations, and basic border integrity. Though all of these at a vastly reduced scale, reduced to the point where we will wonder where they went.

There are some very wealthy Counties, but they will not want to add to the State's coffers any more than the States will want to provide for the Republic. My guess is the wealthy Counties will become the new Singapores; city states with considerable economic and political throw, their independence enforced by economic tyranny. Wealthy Counties and States will be run by strong men, as history has always required. How they manage their internal tensions -- and their own will to conquest -- will determine how peacefully the death of the Federal government will be attended.

I worry that there will be a vast number of failed Cities, and many failed States, and these will quickly overwhelm any progress at scale anywhere else. These failures will be the source of a very dangerous army of roving destitute and hopeless horde, easy prey to tyrants and criminal organizations. They will have no place to go, and will be stung by a memory of entitlements lost. They will not be difficult to whip into a destroying frenzy, and they will not visit mercy on anyone (or any City, or any State) that finds itself in their furious cross-hairs. And as other Cities and States fall new numbers will add to the destitute, more furious and bitter than before.

Anyone who is eager to see the start of this has not thought it through. There is the potential for events that are very very bad. Historically, events that might prove unimaginably brutal and destructive.

Given human nature I harbor no hope for a soft landing, or the continuity of anything I recognize today as important.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:35 | 4012055 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Which cities have the best natural defenses?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:53 | 4012127 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

These days, none. Because almost all cities of any size are now dependent on external inputs, for everything, and are easy to throttle. Remoteness will be no defense either because large numbers of people cannot live in remote places. These might even count among the first enterprises to fail as technology leaves them high and dry.

If the fire ever kindles as I describe it will move freely over the land devouring everything in its path until virtually nothing is left. A few hamlets will escape by virtue of being small, scattered and beneath notice. By the time the rioting masses grow desperate enough to seek them, those same masses will be on the verge of death from war, disease and famine. So the best defense is probably to be small, poor and meek.

It is a bleak picture. It might not come to such and I hope it does not, but because we refuse to face our failure as a nation we are vulnerable to fate and so I have to suspect we will go where fate requires us.

Reaping the whirlwind.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:17 | 4012460 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Traverse City, Michigan.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:24 | 4012680 Two Theives and...
Two Theives and a Liar's picture

Joel Skousen has researched this topic thoroughly:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzjm9MJFSA8

Have seen the book as well. Well worth a look!

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 03:24 | 4013072 wahrheit
wahrheit's picture

I own the book and it is well worth the price for its thorough research and detailed maps.  I think cougar_w's future vision, while bleak, is an accurate portrayal of an unfortunately likely outcome.  Expect the best but prepare for the worst, particularly on the social relationship angle (my biggest weakness, admittedly).  JW Rawles of survivalblog.com's "American Redoubt" is probably the best geographical location for such a worst-case scenario.  The fictional depictions in his books "Patriots" and "Survivors" are highly recommended.  I balk at the Christian values idea of common ideological ground but it makes some sense with regards to having a moral common ground when relating to otherwise unknown folks and the trust factor.  I wouldn't want to be in the same foxhole, so to speak, with the sociopathic likes of the average Wall Street Dimon/Corzine types.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 03:55 | 4013093 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Cougar I'd like you to handle the marketing for my SUMB (shallow underground militia base).

It's not to late to buy in and assure your family a burrow of safety!

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:56 | 4012136 Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

Anything on an island in a river or the sea, or in forks/pockets in steep mountain ranges. Cities on hills with flat terrain surrounding them. Cities surrounded by desert (shit for food supply and access to water but great for siege defence, if you can keep the fuckers out past the 10-14 day point)

 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:18 | 4012185 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

So you pick Manhattan? Or maybe Boulder? SF is on a peninsula, kind of like an island, but 800 miles too close to LA.

All these places are already toast.

Forks or pockets in hidden places, that was what I was alluding to as too small and poor to notice.

I wish I knew the answer. But I have not a clue.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:31 | 4012506 Burticus
Burticus's picture

Besides Plan A, urban survival, and Plan B, woods n' water, you better have a Plan C, South America.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 03:56 | 4013095 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Plan D steal a plane/boat get somehwere else no matter where that is.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 06:53 | 4013177 Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

It hadn't escaped my notice that just about every decent sized city that could have had the makings of a viable city-state, under post-SHTF circumstances, is heavily (and mostly relatively recently, in the grand scheme of things) in accelerated economic and social decline, overrun with huge numbers of the Free Shit Army and has had much of it's former manufacturing base stripped out.

Whether that's a result of bullshit economic globalist policies, a pure coincidence, or a deliberate plan to make sure there are no ready made enclaves for aspiring 'warlords' to set up in doesn't actually make any difference to the outcome, post collapse. They'll all still turn from attractive potential islands of stability into zombie nests that you want to stay the hell away from.

You want to see where the Continuity Government 'elite' folks are planning to set up camp, you just need to eyeball fairly remote but well-situated towns that have had an assload of money thrown at them, recently. I'm guessing you want to stay clear of those locations, too.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:16 | 4012178 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Calgary.

No Free Shit Army is going up there, not that they would last long.

Seriously, when things get rough, the whole point is to avoid cities.  Go someplace small where individuals matter, and life is lived at a human scale..., and make sure they have fresh water.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:56 | 4012144 Landrew
Landrew's picture

States governing at a national level. Sounds like an even bigger CLUSTERFUCK!

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 23:48 | 4012909 oddball
oddball's picture

Huh?  Guess you have never been to Cali?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:46 | 4012332 Angry White Dude
Angry White Dude's picture

I have thought it through. Still eager to see it start.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:45 | 4012541 merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

"Anyone who is eager to see the start of this has not thought it through."

Wrong, sir.  I've been thinking it through since 15 years ago when I realized the ponzi and its unsustainability.  As I positioned myself accordingly (six thousand miles away), I cannot be more eager for the implosion and apocalypse you describe.  I'm less confident than you appear that it will happen straightaway, but I remain optimistic.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:48 | 4012113 Hail Spode
Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:35 | 4010800 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

If there were any justice in the world.

Not holding my breath.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:46 | 4011172 Melin
Melin's picture

"There will be blood and guillotines."

or a new-found respect for property rights and liberty

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:14 | 4011008 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

It takes a village.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:29 | 4011077 CH1
CH1's picture

No, it takes productive humans.

Screw the collectives!

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 16:47 | 4011507 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

I'd screw Tenshun's productive human

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 01:54 | 4013038 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

You won't be screwing anybody. The survivors will be much too wise. Trust will have to be reconstructed from a solid foundation.

 

We will be aware of the psychopath and proceed to put him to death...not collectively...but singularly.

 

Even today I can put a bullet into someone's head with an unregistered gun and tell the cops that I took the Gun away from the thief. The physical evidence will suggest "Self Defense"...which...it is in a sense.

 

Lesson...When you are going to shoot a thief use a Throwaway. You are going to lose it anyway. NEVER...I MEAN NEVER EVER...REGISTER A GUN.

 

Nobody ought to even try screwing me. I have had more than enough. I have had a belly full of it.

 

Your suggestion does not read as if you plan to live a long time through this. I'd change my attitude to one that will be more VIABLE..

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:21 | 4012007 tradewithdave
tradewithdave's picture

You didn't build that... village.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:27 | 4011072 Boondocker
Boondocker's picture

While i wish that would happen, it won't til the economy implodes.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:44 | 4011158 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Is it possible to move an aircraft carrier group into the Great Lakes.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:21 | 4012469 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Not if we Michiganders can buy some of those Russian Oniks missiles.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:01 | 4012588 Rossalgondamer
Rossalgondamer's picture

No, if you play HOI.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:20 | 4012470 CuriousPasserby
CuriousPasserby's picture

Most people are putting away gold, silver, lead and food, but what about toilet paper? Things were so bad in Venezuela the government had to take over the TP factory. Imagine if you put away a few cases, how much people would pay for a roll!

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:41 | 4012726 mkucstars
mkucstars's picture

Until you realize that trying to sell it would make you an instant target.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 04:01 | 4013098 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

You could learn something from soldiers. Use baby wipes, the unscented kind. You need one per dump. Keeps your ass from turning into a boiling festering infection of fecal matter. TP is going to tear your ass up and without that daily shower/bath you are going to have infections and rashes.Once those are gone start thinking about wet towels.

 

Want to learn about hygeine, ask the Infantryman that has deployed a few times.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:58 | 4010551 CPL
CPL's picture

Until they aren't.  They are flat ass broke with a debt that couldn't be paid back in 4000 lifetimes. 

So things change, might not seem for the better at that moment but things happen for a reason even though the purpose isn't apparent at that time.  And when they do change no one will remember eventually and it becomes another foot note in history.  Not the end of the world, just change if it doesn't come back online.

How that change happens is up to people and their level of cooperation, learning to leave old pain behind them and relaxing a little bit.  Unwind the mind and it opens the mind a bit more to other possibilities and ideas.  Serendipity is part of living on Earth.  Shit happens and flowers grow for some apparent reason <jazz hands>.

 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:14 | 4010661 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

That was nice. +1

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:35 | 4010783 prains
prains's picture

...and then they get hungry and eat the jazz hands

 

i wonder what the date in the future will be when the first protein bar is traded for a gold bar...

pre 2040 for sure

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:59 | 4010917 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Many would "down vote" your observation, but you are spot on.  If things get really bad, it will come down to the life sustaining basics.  Always has, always does.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:23 | 4011001 CPL
CPL's picture

With Fukushima you are both planning longer than anyone's got.  It's still in it's horrible, terrible, mutegenic and slow killing tailspin acting contrary to all life on this planet.  So it really doesn't matter what anyone plans in 2040.  If something isn't taken care of it's best to plan for empty chairs, that is if you want to plan for a party no one will arrive at.

 

Believe me, it's in all interests to resolve it.  Radiation is equal opportunity and see's nothing but DNA/RNA to fuck with and get creative.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 18:58 | 4011927 prains
prains's picture

You're probably right CPL, but us interior folk have a little longer to mutate, still say a protein bar gets traded for gold before radiation reaches Alberta

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:34 | 4012295 CPL
CPL's picture

Dunno about that with some other stuff happening, but I did read about those kids in Newfoundland years ago that traded a red paper clip for a house after 14 trades.

They traded a red paper clip for a fish shaped pen.  The fish shaped pen was traded for a hand crafted door knob.  The Door knob was traded for a coalman stove....all the way to a house.  Didn't take much other than barter.  If the theorectical man only had gold to trade in a protein bar bull market, then that's perfectly fair.  Stands to reason maybe that guy should have bought tools and seeds to take care of business.

Nothing wrong with the transaction incidentally, just means that guy is an idiot for trading a protein bar for gold.  Then again some people's sole purpose in life is to provide a working example of what not to do or things like the Darwin awards wouldn't exist.

 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:20 | 4012006 emersonreturn
emersonreturn's picture

cpl

completely agree.  your comments and insights several weeks on a couple fukushima threads were very insightful.  fukushima puts everything in perspective.  

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:14 | 4012194 Jafo
Jafo's picture

The worry about Fukushima is that it will require the power of the State to fix it and if the State fails there will be no fixing it.

I have been thinking about the problem and the solution for some time and the only option that I can think of which may fix it (?) is a controlled underground nuclear explosion designed to cause the crippled reactor to subside into a deep hole followed by another controlled nuclear explosion designed to vitrify the rubble in the hole created by the first explosion.  Alas, the people of Japan would be extremely adverse to such a decion and the Government of Japan would not ba able to make such a decision.  As Washington is possibly the only place that could force such a decision I cannot see it happening because those idiots in power in Washington are not focused on THE major problem of this world.

When the time to mutate comes I want to have two penises, not two heads.  At least I could get a well paid job in the porn industry with that mutation.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:30 | 4012280 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Please don't write something that ignorant. Controlled NUCLEAR reaction to control an uncontrolled nuclear reaction with 1,500 fuel rods in a swimming pool 100ft. in the air. In our lab when someone says something that ignorant the response by all is, WHAT. That's to make the person make the ignorant statement again for even more laughs. Yes, brillant people have some very ignorant ideas. 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:10 | 4012436 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Well his idea is better than your idea.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:55 | 4012776 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Doing nothing is a better idea then that and also better than your's. My idea is exactly what will be done. Burn through hundreds of workers pulling fuel rods praying they don't drop one blowing us all to kingdom come. That is what is going to be done, there is no other choice. Many people will die giving their lives for their country or their families just as the Russians died as  hero's. There are no good choices only better bad ones. I wish them well as so few people understand how dangerous and perilous this task is to ALL of US.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 23:21 | 4012847 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

modern day kamikaze pilots, this time dive bombing grabbing some nuclear fuel rods.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 00:19 | 4012957 Jafo
Jafo's picture

Which is worse, the spent fuel rods sitting in that pool 100 ft in the air or three coriums melting down to who knows where and spewing out massive amounts of fission products to polute air, land and sea?  Sure, they could burn through thousands of workers removing the spent fuel rods for storage and cooling at another site but there is no way that workers can deal with one melted down core let alone three of them.

What is the proposal for dealing with three melted down cores?  I am all ears (and eyes).  Short of burial I don't think that there is any workable proposal for dealing with a full melt down scenario.  We are told that Chernobyl only stopped because somehow the corium managed to disperse sufficiently in the concrete floor so that it cooled sufficiently and it was able to vitrify, thus sealing it for a very long time.  I don't see that as being an option in this case.  Are we just waiting for the white hot coriums to hit the water table and be ejected into the North Pacific ocean and cool there?

As you noted, there are only a range of bad solutions to this problem.  If the reactors were away from the coast then the solution would be easier.  I wonder who the engineers were that designed this disaster?  I doubt that finding more reckless engineers would be possible but I would likely be proved wrong on that call also.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 03:44 | 4013083 wahrheit
wahrheit's picture

> What is the proposal for dealing with three melted down cores?

Put them at the bottom of the Marianas trench and hope they get subducted into the Earth's mantle, or put them in a space probe and send it away from the planet?  No easy solutions here, for sure.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:02 | 4013268 Jafo
Jafo's picture

Personally, I favour a subduction point to dispose of them but is Fukushima any where near one?  Oh Lordy, I sure hope it is near one.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:11 | 4012439 CPL
CPL's picture

That would be an awesome mutation, but your hormones would be so out of whack to make it you'd never cum again or get hard.  You'd just have two wangs, or the second one just might be a tumour. (HEY baby wanna see a foot with no toes!!)

Otherwise the exploding death trap idea is cool and all, but it got hit with an earth quake, then a Tsunami.  It didn't take anymore than a really bad accident, stupid management and legions of bureaucrats scared shitless for it to get this bad.   The deed was done 2 and a half years ago and here we all are breathing it in daily because nothing, absolutely nothing has been done.  And it's gone from awful accident to a 5-10 year extinction level event with one nasty piece of information after another..

Again bitching about it isn't going to fix it, getting a big dogpile of ideas to chew through and information is a start.  Right now I'm going through all the information on www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov website on post Chernobly examples, right now reading:  Species-specific double-strand break repair and genome evolution in plants (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC314016/)

After I'm finished with plants, I'm doing all the bugs.  As I go along I find the odd piece of information and post it if it's useful and easy to use.  This stuff is very dry reading, probably karma for producing simlar tomes of technical documentation in my lifetime for clients.  However if I don't go looking and helping with the technical stuff, I won't have any clients to work for.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:07 | 4012615 merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

"I have been thinking about the problem and the solution for some time and the only option that I can think of..."

Now that's funny.  You see, just several weeks ago, with the greatest sarcasm I could manage, I suggested that President Camacho, in the year 2505, would finally "solve" the Fukushima problem by "nuking it to hell".  And here you are with enthusiasm and a straight face.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 23:00 | 4012792 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Exactly go BIG and DIE ha! Thanks for the laughs. I only wish that guy was joking. So few people understand what a nuclear chain reaction is ha!

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:21 | 4013298 Jafo
Jafo's picture

At least I got some discussion going on the topic.  Seriously, my idea might be flawed but at least it is a proposal.  You are quite right.  The spent fuel rods do have to be moved and secured in a much safer location.  However, so far, I have heard squat from anyone about proposals to deal with a triple core melt down.  I would very much like to know the answer to that question as would probably half of the population on this planet.

Seriously, I wasn't talking about using a nuclear explosion to break up the melted down cores and spread them so they could not resume a criticality.  That would be a bad outcome though, if the math were done, it may be better than just doing nothing.  My proposal was to use a small nuclear explosion to create an underground chamber and then collapse the reactor complex into it and later seal it with a second nuclear explosion.  We are dealing with something on a whole different scale here and that means that the solution has to be on a different scale as well.

Over to you, Landrew

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 03:44 | 4013084 wahrheit
wahrheit's picture

2505 more like 2050

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 16:24 | 4011384 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Do all of you have your food supply set to go? Rice is still 50 cent per pound. That $50 now will kkeep you alive for a year. Why not a bit more and insure a few neighbors?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:30 | 4012037 gunbunny
gunbunny's picture

Been feeding the wife and kiddies cheesecake and fudge for the last two months or so, to fatten them up for the winter.

 

Store some M&M's; they may be the bright spot of your sad week someday soon.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:40 | 4012532 mt paul
mt paul's picture

a couple years of food supplies

including 200 lbs chocolate..

 

keep the old lady happy..

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:11 | 4012637 merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

"Been feeding the wife and kiddies cheesecake and fudge for the last two months or so"

Sucker.  Now they're never gonna stop.  "To Fatness" is a one-way road for the noisy old ball-and-chain, buddy.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:28 | 4011081 CH1
CH1's picture

they get hungry and eat the jazz hands

What the hell is a jazz hand?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:31 | 4011095 CPL
CPL's picture

Two hand jives or eight thumbs up.  That's the exchange I work with.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 16:44 | 4011493 Black Swan 9
Black Swan 9's picture

Thx, CPL, I enjoy your posts, and that last one, especially. Your words, a balm.

But then, as you noted in your next post, there's Fukushima.. :/

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 17:16 | 4011618 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

I am going to borrow " Seredipity is part of living on Earth. Shit happens and then flowers grow for some apparent reaason"

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:13 | 4012435 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Says more about the Earth than the Flowers.

 

Unless we're talking about Hot House Flowers.  Then says more about Man than it says about Earth and all the nervous glances start up.

 

 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:55 | 4012374 resurger
resurger's picture

they have trillion dollar coins, it will be paid! Dont worry!

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:24 | 4010459 slotmouth
slotmouth's picture

These are the kind of trades that worked very well for LTCM, until they didn't.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:30 | 4010502 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

No, LTCM would be playing the other side.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:54 | 4010590 slotmouth
slotmouth's picture

You're right, I misread the trade.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 16:03 | 4011275 Bluesquid
Bluesquid's picture

at its core, this comment is all that needs be said.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:29 | 4010477 Rattling Bones
Rattling Bones's picture

If the Federal governemnt has gotten so big that shutting it down is a major disaster,  then it should be shut down just for that reason alone.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:29 | 4010490 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

It's just like with the banks. If it's too big to fail, it's too big to exist.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:37 | 4010529 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

If there was a "market" on earth that allowed for true price discovery, your comments would be valid.

 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:59 | 4010601 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Exactly. Logic as it pertains to an outdated model is irrelevant because said manipulated and outdated model is being held together by every used band-aid known to man.

 

 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:04 | 4010629 1000 splendid suns
1000 splendid suns's picture

Political windbag empty suit Hunger Games.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:59 | 4010932 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

@nope-1004

I thought it was you???? Do you recall a thread re: the $1 bill as opposed to other denominations?

If it was you, did you hear the blip on BBG re: cash & the guy said he had alot of singles?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:43 | 4010546 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Should is a word that plays no part in todays markets.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:27 | 4010480 jpc578
jpc578's picture

Was there no four week auction the week of September 17 or was the interest rate actually zero?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:30 | 4010492 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:46 | 4010556 jpc578
jpc578's picture

If I say my name is Uncle Sam can I borrow at zero percent?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:51 | 4010871 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Frameworthy!

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:01 | 4010912 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

True, but only for a while.

Wait until we are Jellin' with Yellen.  When rates go negative, I'm going to back up the truck and Hi Ho Silver.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:29 | 4011080 kralizec
kralizec's picture

No doubt.

Save a spot for me!

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 17:28 | 4011664 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

Someone should put Tyler's post into a time capsule for future generations. Maybe America's upcoming sacrifice and collapse will prove to be a dire warning for generations to come.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:52 | 4012118 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I just emailed the image to the 53 people on my Joke List.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:48 | 4012351 resurger
resurger's picture

 

a deal you cant refuse if ya ask me! am sure Cramer would suggest to buy it, hed see the rates going -ve. or the Pimco Pimps

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:28 | 4012690 merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

Holy shit, it's really zero!  But only 94.55% allotted at that 'high rate'?  Uh..  5.45% bid NIRP??

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:28 | 4010484 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

So there's a 0.12% chance that the republicans will man the fuck up and don't raise the debt ceiling? Seems about right.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:30 | 4010491 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Someone is placing a big bet.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:33 | 4010779 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Perhaps the banksters are looking for a little leverage before meeting with Obummer today?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:32 | 4010503 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

The US Government is not TBTF.  It is the Lehmann of 2013.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:31 | 4010507 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Print more money for everybody.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:33 | 4010518 mrmister
mrmister's picture

I had heard that the Saudis were mad at Obama on backing down on Syria. This may be the point that the Saudis, China, and Russia begin to thrash US currency and debts.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:35 | 4010526 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

optimist.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:43 | 4010548 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Too good to be true, that would force them to let the shit trickle up for a change...

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:31 | 4011097 CH1
CH1's picture

Too good to be true

No, things do run the right way from time to time.

It's just been a long time since anyone alive has seen it.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:40 | 4010536 BlackChicken
BlackChicken's picture

WE the people have allowed our employees to ruin this nation with unpayable debt, and coupons for "money".

There is no reason to blame the Chineese, Saudis, or anyone else for what is coming; we owe it to ourselves.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:50 | 4010579 PRO.223
PRO.223's picture

I up arrowed you, I think your right, but i think mrmister is refering to the fact that our government has given them an opportunity to harm us. 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:03 | 4010624 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

WE the people (of Walmart)

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:06 | 4010961 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

What happens if the EBT cards of the Free Shit Army aren't recharged the first of next month (or today?)?  

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:17 | 4011020 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

good thangs!

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:33 | 4011099 Boondocker
Boondocker's picture

That's why semi-precious metals are important!

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 17:22 | 4011648 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Brass and copper jacketed lead?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:54 | 4012131 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Don't forget highly-engineered components made of 52100 steel.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 21:17 | 4012453 BlackChicken
BlackChicken's picture

Hey DCRB.

Just wanted you to know I have always appreciated your sense of humor.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 23:32 | 4012881 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

So DHS does know something most of us don't, by sucking up all the ammo.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 00:52 | 4012993 BlackChicken
BlackChicken's picture

You should change your name to Common_Cents23

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:42 | 4010542 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

and lets not forget thrashing gold and silver cuz that makes a lot of sense

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:22 | 4010721 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

mr mr

Interesting thought!

Any effort that might threaten the US$ would have to be very carefully played lest someone get blamed for destroying the monetary system.

While there is much to be gained by these parties there is much risk. 

Russia and China are major players but also have much invested in the current monetary system. They would have to think long and hard about whether now is the time to make a move. Does China have the gold it needs to back a 'big boy' currency? 

How could Russia allow the Saudis (and Quatar) to pipe gas to Europe and hurt the monopoly of Gazprom?

The Saudis have no real army....will they trust Russia to behave? Russia has had it's share of islamic terror, do they want to pair up with a mojor sponsor?

Strange bedfellows aside the coalition you name could work (from what I know) and there is no shortage of conspiracy rumors that could make that arrangement work.

I just wonder if a major change to the monetary system will be forced by a few players or will be constructed by Brentton Woods type agreement following an economic problem. 

I doubt anyone really knows where this is going.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 15:16 | 4011015 orez65
orez65's picture

The Saudi Government can not survive without "US Muscle".

The Chinese, Russians or Iranians would take them over in a couple of hours.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:36 | 4010530 wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

What effect, if any, on MM accounts?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 13:59 | 4010615 seek
seek's picture

None until the bail-in.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 14:39 | 4010812 wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

Knock on wood and stay one step ahead.

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