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What Happened The Last Time Bill Miller Had A 'No Brainer'?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Not a segment goes by on today's business media when we have not heard that "Bill Miller says AAPL is a no brainer." Of course, it is no surprise that markets have no memories but to heed the vehement advice of an almost self-proclaimed dip-buyer who told the New York Times that "not understanding the systemic nature" of the market "was his biggest mistake," in the new normal of too-bigger-to-fail banks and ever-longer collateral chains seems risible. As to his confidence, we remind those who care, that on Dec 3rd 2008, Miller said the "bottom has been made" in U.S. equities. Trade accordingly...

 

and financials collapsed another 57% before finally finding their lows...

 

And today on AAPL and MSFT.. "no brainer"

 

Via Reuters,

Legg Mason's Miller: "Bottom's been made" in stocks
Wed, Dec 3 2008

NEW YORK, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Legg Mason's star stock-fund manager Bill Miller said on Wednesday the "bottom has been made" in U.S. equities and that the Federal Reserve should consider purchasing stocks and junk bonds to pull the United States out of the financial crisis.

Speaking at Legg Mason's annual luncheon for media, Miller said that all long-term investors believe that stocks today are cheap.

 

Via Time,

What We Can Learn from a Legendary Fund Manager’s Retirement

 

In the end, Bill Miller was doing what he had always done. But it stopped working, and now the legendary mutual fund manager is retiring. His inglorious departure from Legg Mason Value Trust offers a telling lesson in the perils of blindly sticking to what has succeeded in the past.

 

...

 

But things went very wrong for Miller after that, especially when the financial crisis hit and he failed to comprehend the depth of the problems at banks and the severity of the recession. He began loading up on falling bank stocks much too early and in 2008 his fund lost 55% of its value.

 

...

 

But the investment world turned upside down after the financial crisis of 2008. While Miller was buying cheap bank stocks, they kept getting cheaper. He was betting heavily on the sector to spring back to life, a prospect that even now – nearly four years later – seems distant at best. As Miller told The New York Times:

 

“The crisis was the biggest mistake we made — not understanding the systemic nature of what was happening. … We had it completely wrong.”

 

It would be simplistic to say that all Miller did was buy dips, though that was a big part of his strategy.

 

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Tue, 10/01/2013 - 18:35 | 4011869 max2205
max2205's picture

....j:

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 18:44 | 4011882 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

Load up on Bear Stearns emeffers

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122886123425292617.html

 

Working from his well-worn playbook, he snapped up American International Group Inc., AIG +0.97% Wachovia Corp., Bear Stearns Cos. and Freddie Mac . As the shares continued to fall, he argued that investors were overreacting. He kept buying.

 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:03 | 4011933 Fredo Corleone
Fredo Corleone's picture

Bill Miller: the "no-brainer" was investing in a total market index fund, rather than the erstwhile "no-brainer," Legg Mason Value Trust.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:46 | 4012342 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

I thought that was Bill Moyers on a bad day,

  not that he ever had a good day.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 18:35 | 4011870 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

We have a saying in poker:

"Going 'All-In' works* everytime....but once"

 

 

*helps when you do it with other people's money

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 18:40 | 4011878 pitz
pitz's picture

AAPL is crap.  If they had money, they would've been dividending it. 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 18:40 | 4011879 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

My uncle lost a fortune in Legg Mason Funds listening to Bill Miller et al back then.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:59 | 4012155 Two Feet Studs Up
Two Feet Studs Up's picture

I've heard this guy likes to drink a wee bit too much.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 18:41 | 4011885 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

So, if you buy AAPL now you, it means you have no brain? 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 18:51 | 4011913 prains
prains's picture

no....it means you're about to buy into a massive sell off........smell the cheesepooperi it's in the air

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:30 | 4012038 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

What aromatic scent is cheesepooperi?

Can I buy some at Publix so I can plug into the outlet in my bathroom to let the fragrence waft throughout my house?

DaddyO

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:52 | 4012371 prains
prains's picture

What aromatic scent is cheesepooperi?

 

08' vintage sweaty Paulson boxers

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:33 | 4012048 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Right, I remember when AAPL broke 400$ and folks on here gleefully declaring their 350$ puts / shorts, not to mention a lot of idiots saying AAPL was on its way to 0. Not less than a week ago some desperate zh'er was asking advice on his disasterous AAPL short...

Good work team!

Perceptions of the obvious often aren't correct. Buy miners anyone?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 18:55 | 4011921 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

I filled out the survey offered by CNBC after I viewed the Bill Miller clip. I made it clear I only looked at CNBC when there was a link to something that should be ridiculed. I got to type in Zero Hedge (twice) as my primary destination and source for financial, market and investing info. At the end they ask for the one thing I would recommend to improve CNBC, I typed in "Fire Jim Cramer".

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:35 | 4012710 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

Cramer thought Obama would make him the Treasury secretary.  Tim Geithner the eraser head was a bad idea.  Letting Cramer do anything is just a really bad idea.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 18:57 | 4011923 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Hey, Cramer is doing his 2,000th episode of getting the sheeple to BTFD.

I can't wait for the "They know nothing!" temper-tantrum the next time the Ponzi crashes and all his viewers lose 60% all over again.

"Stick with Cramer".  Yeah, like fly paper.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:05 | 4011934 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

The Cramer motel.  Investors walk in with money....

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:24 | 4012678 yogibear
yogibear's picture

"The Cramer motel"

++

Cramer is a senior roach. When the lights turn on the raches scatter to hide.


Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:13 | 4011961 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Just a matter of time before we see things like this from Jim Cramer again:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EklCI7D7Rns

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 00:26 | 4012963 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

does he still have a show?  how many viewers does he have left?  10?

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 00:26 | 4012965 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

does he still have a show?  how many viewers does he have left?  10?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:05 | 4011932 devo
devo's picture

I know ZH doesn't give investment advice, but if we're being honest, their implied investment strategy is worse than this guy's. Anyone who bought gold or shorted bonds the past few years has had their face ripped off.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:15 | 4011972 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

http://www.fxempire.com/technical/technical-analysis-reports/gold-prices...

 

Face ripped off. Yes. Which is why you should always formulate your own opinion. 

However, in all fairness to physical Gold holders....who have not sold...they will be able to afford resconstructive plastic surgery in the future. 

Note, I only went back ONE year on Gold in order to support your premise. 

 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:25 | 4012017 devo
devo's picture

I like physical metals here (though it looks like gold wants 1100 or so) and own a lot, but those in glass houses shouldn't throw stones, you know? ZH has a bad track record. 4 years of doom and gloom as stocks rise to record levels. Anyone listening to this site missed out. I realize they're being purposely contrarian, but Bill Miller's a billionaire who is right more often than ZH. ZH might be right in the end, but that's a long ways away, and there's money to be made on the journey.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:56 | 4012347 MichiganMilitiaMan
MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

Depends on what you want to be right about, and if money and the S&P 500 are all the only things that count.

Here are some things I have not missed during the last 4-8 years:

How about record poverty.  How about 46 million people relient upon food stamps (including children).

How about record low employment participation rates and manipulated unemployment data.

How about record economic divergence between the rich and poor, and younger people unable to meet, let alone exceed, their parents socioeconomic level.

How about a national healthcare service that can't even get the fucking web site right! 

By the way, people were feeling really, really good right up until 1929 also, but of course that has been forgotten, and lead to the WW2.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 00:22 | 4012961 Babaloo
Babaloo's picture

"... if all you care about is money (?) "

That's what this whole discussion is about. The best place to invest your money. All that other crap you're talking about has ZERO bearing on the main point of this thread.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:44 | 4012716 dannyboy
dannyboy's picture

You don't have to listen.

As for me I have made my money SPECIFICALLY because of the information from zerohedge.

If you think all they say is short the S&P and long gold, well then turns out your the sucker.

Recall every Stolper trade since forever (bar 1 that lost i think half a percent got stopped out at, even a broken clock is right twice a day).

Recall: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/how-make-135-annualized-return-4-months

Recall: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/anti-tilson-etf-basket-leads-way-early-2012 and the actual trade itself that ZH reco'd http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gift-just-keeps-giving-anti-tilson-returns-50-two-weeks

I could go on and on, but since I have more urgent things to do in my life than prove morons wrong. (I have about 20 others I think).

Please, don't try to act smart in a place where most are smarter than you.

 EDIT: Actually you are a total fuckin retard, every month zerohedge posts the POMO list for the month with the caveat "Shorting stocks on these days will be hazardous to your health" or something to that effect.

Someone remind me why i'm responding to him?

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 23:18 | 4012837 devo
devo's picture

Uh huh.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 00:32 | 4012968 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

zerohedge is more about survival and return of capital/preservation of wealth, as opposed to 2/20 short term profit.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:14 | 4011974 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Best Buy and Netflix, LOL!

Two of the most floated cotton candy spun overvalued stocks in the markets.

Oh yeah, they're a buy at these valuations!  AAPL - one bad product release from $200/share - is a buy too!

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:15 | 4011983 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

I love how these money managers who have never worked in an industry in their life are all of a sudden experts in every industry.

 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:33 | 4012693 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Their experts because of the Fed QE to infinity.

A monkey pressing the buy button when you show bananas (on dips)  would probably beat these experts.

Maybe CNBC needs to replace Cramer with a chimp. They like to throw things, just like Cramer and they perform their stunts for a lot less money.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:19 | 4012000 blackbeardz
blackbeardz's picture

He is right on AAPL, mockers.

It's different this time.

Long(liv)AAPL

 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:24 | 4012013 Pig Circus
Pig Circus's picture

I Remenber Dr. Bob Frolic PHD saying in mid November 08 on Krudlow that the Dow would be 13,500 by years end. It was under 10,000 at the time and I grabed my calculator and came up with something like a 37% return in under 45 days. I found it unreal that not one of the other 3 guest didn't stop him and ask him to rethink that call. Instead they just all notted their heads.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:29 | 4012034 Tippoo Sultan
Tippoo Sultan's picture

"Dr." Bob Froehlich, Heiko Theime, Ralph Acampora - what became of the CNBC Permabull Legion ? Greeting SNAP shoppers at the Hempstead Wal-Mart ?

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 01:23 | 4013020 Leveraged Algorithm
Leveraged Algorithm's picture

Correction - that is Ralph Make-them-poorer........

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 19:42 | 4012078 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Original Music Video Da Dip
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZPQdZLyHYE (3:59)

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:20 | 4012239 JJ McApe
JJ McApe's picture

to be fair. since the fed is not tapering this year it is likely that aaple could hit $510+ with ease.

even with the government locked down, the fed keeps printing and mark my words: they will not kill the holiday season.

at least until q2 next year this rally will go on imo.

:)

 

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:37 | 4012308 Whatta
Whatta's picture

still...hard to argue his track record. Like, ummmm, Gold Mansack makes no bad calls? LOL.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 20:59 | 4012391 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     This market(DAX) is a bigger fucking joke then the Dow & S&P.

  http://www.investing.com/indices/germany-30-advanced-chart  The fucking thing is in a full on, blow-off top! The DAX is going to get slammed hard, and German macro news is deteriorating.

Tue, 10/01/2013 - 22:59 | 4012794 antidisestablis...
antidisestablishmentarianismishness's picture

Yeah, he's a real idiot for missing the mkt bottom by 3 months but then again probably not as dumb as those people who've been screaming dead cat bounce for the past 4.5 years.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 00:09 | 4012941 unununium
unununium's picture

No shit.  Market is up 73% since Dec 3 2008.

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