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Bill Gross' Monthly Thoughts: Expect The "Beautiful Deleveraging" To Conclude... Some Time In 2035

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A week ago, we first reported that Bridgewater's Ray Dalio had finally thrown in the towel on his latest iteration of hope in the "Beautiful deleveraging", and realizing that a 3% yield is enough to grind the US economy to a halt, moved from the pro-inflation camp (someone tell David Rosenberg) back to buying bonds (i.e., deflation).

This was music to Bill Gross' ears who in his latest letter, in which he notes in addition to everything else that while the Fed has to taper eventually, it doesn't actually ever have to raise rates, and writes: "The objective, Dalio writes, is to achieve a “beautiful deleveraging,” which assumes minimal defaults and an eventual return of investors’ willingness to take risk again. The beautiful deleveraging of course takes place at the expense of private market savers via financially repressed interest rates, but what the heck. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and if the Fed’s (and Dalio’s) objective is to grow normally again, then there is likely no more beautiful or deleveraging solution than one that is accomplished via abnormally low interest rates for a long, long time." How long one may ask? "the last time the U.S. economy was this highly levered (early 1940s) it took over 25 years of 10-year Treasury rates averaging 3% less than nominal GDP to accomplish a “beautiful deleveraging.” That would place the 10-year Treasury at close to 1% and the policy rate at 25 basis points until sometime around 2035!... A highly levered U.S. and global economy cannot deleverage “beautifully” without repressive future policy rate." In the early 1940s there was also a world war, but PIMCO's bottom line is clear: lots and lots of central planning for a long time.

From PIMCO:

Survival of the Fittest?

I hate crows and my wife Sue hates bugs, but like most married couples we have learned to live with our differences. Crows eat bugs though, and bugs eat bugs, and that scientific observation sets the context for the next few paragraphs of this month’s Investment Outlook.

About those crows: They screech, they jabber, they complain from the treetops and then once on the ground they hop, hop, hop all over the street looking for garbage. Flying seems beyond them – too much effort to flap those ebony wings. They prefer to play chicken with my car rolling into the driveway at 5 mph. “Get out of my way,” they seem to be saying. “We’re probably on the endangered species list and if you hit us, you’re the one that’ll be sorry.” Probably true – damn crows. About those bugs: Sue hates any kind of bug, but especially those with lots of legs. Creepy crawly legs. Centipedes, Millipedes, even Octapedes and there are no eight-legged bugs. And of course there’s the world’s perennial favorite – the cockroach. Who could love “La Cucaracha?” Not Sue, that’s for sure.
 
Our hatred of bugs and crows though is perhaps too strong of a word. “Dislike” or “not like” might be better. Nature itself is rather neutral when it comes to any living thing – including us humans – so perhaps we Grosses should take a lesson from the grand Mother. And to think of it, perhaps it is nature and its rather incomprehensible neutrality that “bugs” me the most – not crows. Why, I wonder, is it that nature seems so indifferent to life, that it promotes, even encourages the Grim Reaper as a necessary condition for living and evolving? Why must it create multiple examples of a living species and then rather innocently step aside as they voraciously consume one another? Must Darwin and his survival of the fittest be God’s philosophical guidepost? Why couldn’t a loving and theoretically omniscient creator just make it simple as opposed to infinitely complex? Why couldn’t the Mother, for instance, pattern an outcome that produced a pride of one or two perfectly healthy lion cubs as opposed to three or four with flaws – the latter two becoming hyena food because they were too slow or insufficiently hyena-aware. So the hyenas could live, you say? Then why create hyenas in the first place – leave them out of the plan and prevent the needless suffering. Of course we would then probably all become grazing cows, chewing our cuds in a more pastoral but less painful setting. Perhaps – but better a cow, I think, than millions of crows eating billions of bugs. Hindus would agree. If I were the creator I’d do it better, but then I’m not. As for this life – count me in by necessity. I’ll play the game but reluctantly. My rage and incomprehension at the pain and death of living things – especially two-legged ones – is as old as Mother time herself, but forever fresh and completely unanswerable.

Speaking of questions with no answers: 1) investors wonder what happened to the taper, 2) why the Fed seemed to change its mind and 3) where of course do we go from here? A few days before the September meeting, I tweeted that the Fed would “tinker rather than taper,” which was close to the end result, but still not totally accurate. They refused to budge, with an uncertain economy being the explanation. Ben Bernanke sort of sat back and did nothing, just like Mother Nature with her crows and bugs. The debate though is actually only so much noise in the scheme of things. The Fed will have to taper, cease and then desist someday. They can’t just keep adding one trillion dollars to their balance sheet every year without something negative happening – either accelerating inflation, a tanking dollar or a continued unwillingness on the part of corporations to invest because of the resultant low and unacceptable returns on investment. QE (quantitative easing) has to die sometime. Just like Mother Nature, death and creative destruction seem to be part of the Grand Economic Scheme.

What matters most for bond and other investors though is not timing of the taper nor the endpoint of QE, but the policy rate: 1) how long it stays where it is, 2) what is the long-term neutral rate in a highly levered economy and 3) can a chastened central bank convince investors that it knows the answer and can be trusted to stick to it?

It’s the policy rate, both spot and forward, that prices markets and drives economies and investment decisions. QEs were simply a necessary medicine for rather uncertain and illiquid times. Now that more certainty and more liquidity have been restored, it’s time for the policy rate and forward guidance to assume control. Janet Yellen, future Fed Chairperson, would agree, as would oft-quoted Michael Woodford, Columbia University professor and 2012 Jackson Hole speaker, who seems to have become the private sector’s philosophical guru for guidance and benchmarks, that will now attempt to convince an investment public that what you hear is what you get.

But if QE is soon to be out, and guidance soon to be what remains, I think investors should listen and invest accordingly. Not with total innocence, but sort of like a totally hyena-aware lion cub – knowing there’s bad things that can happen out there in the jungle, but for now enjoying the all clear silence of the African plain. In bond parlance, the all clear sign would mean that the Fed believes what it says, and if their guideposts have any credibility, they won’t be raising policy rates until 2016 or even beyond. The critical question to ask in terms of the level and eventual upward guide path of the policy rate is how high a rate can a levered economy stand? How much wood can a woodchuck chuck? How high a rate can a homebuyer handle? No one really knows, but we’re beginning to find out. The increase of over 125 basis points in a 30-year mortgage over the past 6–12 months seems to have stopped housing starts and importantly mortgage refinancings in its tracks. It was the primary “financial condition” that Chairman Bernanke cited in his September press conference that shifted the “taper to a tinker to a chance” that maybe they might do something next time.

The 30-year mortgage rate of course is connected to the policy rate and its pricing in forward space. All yields in composite are what an economy has to hurdle in order to grow at historically hoped-for rates at 2–3% real and 4–5% nominal: Treasury yields, mortgage yields, corporate yields and credit card yields, all in composite. Ray Dalio and company at Bridgewater have the concept down pat. The objective, Dalio writes, is to achieve a “beautiful deleveraging,” which assumes minimal defaults and an eventual return of investors’ willingness to take risk again. The beautiful deleveraging of course takes place at the expense of private market savers via financially repressed interest rates, but what the heck. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and if the Fed’s (and Dalio’s) objective is to grow normally again, then there is likely no more beautiful or deleveraging solution than one that is accomplished via abnormally low interest rates for a long, long time. It is PIMCO’s belief that Yellen, Woodford and Dalio are right. If you want to trust one thing and one thing only, trust that once QE is gone and the policy rate becomes the focus, that fed funds will then stay lower than expected for a long, long time. Right now the market (and the Fed forecasts) expects fed funds to be 1% higher by late 2015 and 1% higher still by December 2016. Bet against that.

The reason to place your bet on the “don’t come” 2016 line is what we have just experienced over the past few months. We have seen a 3% Treasury yield and a 4½% 30-year mortgage rate and the economy peeked its head out its hole like a groundhog on its special day and decided to go back inside for another metaphorical six weeks. No spring or summer in sight at those yields. The U.S. (and global economy) may have to get used to financially repressive – and therefore low policy rates – for decades to come. As the accompanying chart shows, the last time the U.S. economy was this highly levered (early 1940s) it took over 25 years of 10-year Treasury rates averaging 3% less than nominal GDP to accomplish a “beautiful deleveraging.” That would place the 10-year Treasury at close to 1% and the policy rate at 25 basis points until sometime around 2035! I’m not gonna stick my neck out for that – April, May and June of 2013 have taught me a lesson that low yields can become high yields almost overnight. But they should stay abnormally low. A highly levered U.S. and global economy cannot deleverage “beautifully” without repressive future policy rates, which in turn help to contain 5s and 10s although with much less confidence and more volatility as investors have seen recently.

 

Investment Implications

In betting on a lower policy rate than now priced into markets, a bond investor should expect a certain pastoral quietude in future years, much like that grazing cow, I suppose. Not that exciting, but what the hay, it’s an existence! Portfolios should emphasize front end maturity positions that are stabilized by the Fed’s forward guidance as well as volatility sales explicitly priced in 30-year agency mortgages. Because of the inflationary intention of low policy rates, TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) and the avoidance of anything compositely longer than say 7–10 years of maturity should be favored (long liability structures such as pension funds excepted). PIMCO believes that such a modeled portfolio could likely return 4% in future years.

A bond investor’s focus must simplistically be this: In this new age where short-term yields cannot go lower, let the yield curve, volatility and acceptably priced credit spreads be your North Star. Duration and its empowering carry are fading from the nighttime sky, especially for 10- and 30-year maturities. Mother Nature nor Mother Market cares not a whit for your losses nor your hoped for double-digit return from an equity/bond portfolio that is priced for much less. Be a contented cow, not a voracious crow, and graze wisely with increasing certainty that the Fed and its forward guidance is your best bet for survival.

"Survival Speed Read"

1) Focus on front-end yields, because the Fed can’t raise policy rates in a levered economy.

2) Respect all living things, even crows and bugs.

 

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Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:10 | 4013391 Alpha Dog Food
Alpha Dog Food's picture

I thought you guys in the States had shut down?

I was too busy watching cartoons to deleverage

My favourite here is 'Whatever Happened To The Occupy Movement'

http://www.youtube.com/user/mrjosephmorgan/videos

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:13 | 4013399 Stackers
Stackers's picture

And now we are all cows .......... better than sheep I guess.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:21 | 4013417 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

CAN YOU SAY...

""GOLD BullMarket"", Bitchies ...

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:27 | 4013428 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

The word "Economy" means stealing when a country is on paper instead of metal.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:34 | 4013441 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

The scenario described is the Japan scenario, and there is no Japan scenario for an overlevered  collapsing world power / host country of reserve currency.  This is a fucking pipe dream.  Think "collapse of British Empire and subsequent loss of reserve status with attendent destruction of domestic standard of living".

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:42 | 4013463 NooooB
NooooB's picture

I just can't believe y'all missed the author's code for blacks, single mothers, and Mexicans.. Unless you did get it. And that's just normal for you...

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 12:55 | 4014294 Call me Ishmael
Call me Ishmael's picture

Would owning TLT be the same as owning treasuries?

This feels like a dumb question but I'm not well versed in bonds. And I don't understand why Dalio and Gross are betting for them to rise while the Fed is keeping interest rates low. Yes I read the entire article.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 13:20 | 4014399 nugjuice
nugjuice's picture

TLT is like owning a basket of treasuries but it's the 20 year, and Gross says to stay under 7-10 years out.

If you think interest rates are going down further, then you want to be long bonds to capture the price rise. As new bonds come out with a lower interest rate the existing bonds with a higher rate will be worth more = you make money.

You'd probably be better off going into a beaten down closed end fund that is actively managed by a good manager. PDI is a good example. Trading at a 5.5% discount to NAV, just raised their dividend to a forward yield of almost 8%, one of the best managers on the street, and about $1/share in UNII. They are having no problem covering the dividend and protecting NAV.

Edit: He's also not saying he's expecting them to rise materially. He's saying he thinks you can earn about 4% a year. Hardly an earth-moving call. He's just combatting the 'abandon bonds because yields can only go up' thesis.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:43 | 4013469 smlbizman
Wed, 10/02/2013 - 10:36 | 4013644 Freegold
Freegold's picture

+1 The world outside of USA is moving, moving away from the dollar. The real economy (not consumer based) can never service all those liabilities held in dollars abroad and they know this. Once enough support for the currencys use is gone it will collaps under it's own weightt.

A FIAT is way to move between moments of truth. That a FIAT is not a measure of true wealth, only gold is. And considering all those riches oil brought forward since the last moment of truth the move in recogniized value of gold will be epic.

Gold, go get you some!

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:35 | 4013446 Manthong
Manthong's picture

I think it is more about vipers and hyenas than crows and bugs.

There is no market.. only interventions and it is a mistake to think that the snakes and jackals really feel they are virtuous and not self- serving.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 10:19 | 4013571 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

"it is a mistake to think that the snakes and jackals really feel they are virtuous and not self- serving"

I don't think so. Self-delusion by those with overly-strong and unjustified egos is common. Thus, the vampire squid's "doing god's work" remark.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:47 | 4013474 Money Maker
Money Maker's picture

Oh yes, you got it...gold is about to go on fire....Also, the call options on IAG Calls at 5 strike yesterday was 7, 500 contracts bought and for Puts at 4.50 Strike was 5 contracts...I have never seen that uneven of buying call versus puts...somethign is definately up with IAG.

here is a small paragraph.

From Alphas Edge http://www.alphasedge.com/stock-market-news/aig-a-golden-stock

"After deep analysis of various different gold stocks, we found that many are very good buying opportunities, and a few of them bad buying opportunities.  The stock with the most opportunity (today) was IAMGOLD Corp (IAG). The stock is currently trading at around $4.80.  The upmost downside (gold at 800), would still place the stocks fair value above $5/share considering that the company will still be profitable.  The company has two primary operations, the Rosebel Gold Mine and the Essakane Gold Mine.  In 2012, Rosebel Gold Mine produced 382,000 ounces of gold at a cost of US $671 per ounce.   In the same year, Essakane Gold Mine produced 315,000 ounces of gold at a cost of US $603.  Both gold mines have probable gold reserves of over 14 years.  Relative to many other gold producers, they have a relative low cost.

Another reason to be bullish on IAG is the executive team.  Stephen Letwin, the President and Chief Executive Officer gave an excellent 20 minute review at the recent Denver Gold Forum.  Some of the highlights were:  IAMGOLD had sold a number of assets in Africa in 2011 and purchased assets in North America to balance risk.  Now, the company has 3 relative same size investments in North America, South America and Africa.  In addition, IAG started cost reduction earlier when compared to other gold companies and have a very strong cash position today.   Essakane expansion is close to being finished. The Westwood mine is now completed, in production, and under good management.  This mine is expected to produce an average of 186,000 ounces of gold per year during its first five years of operation at average cash costs of $358 per ounce.  The mine has a life of 16 years."

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:51 | 4013481 Money Maker
Money Maker's picture

Oh, looks like Forbes also wrote something good on IAG this morning..

From Forbes http://www.forbes.com/sites/dividendchannel/2013/10/02/this-stock-has-a-5-40-yield-and-sells-for-less-than-book/?partner=yahootix

"AMGold Corp (NYSE: IAG) has been named as a Top 5 dividend paying metals and mining stock, according to Dividend Channel, which published its weekly ”DividendRank” report. The report noted that among metals and mining companies, IAG shares displayed both attractive valuation metrics and strong profitability metrics. For example, the recent IAG share price of $4.63 represents a price-to-book ratio of 0.5 and an annual dividend yield of 5.40% — by comparison, the average metals and mining stock in Dividend Channel’s coverage universe yields 2.6% and trades at a price-to-book ratio of 1.7. The report also cited the strong semi-annual dividend history at IAMGold Corp, and favorable long-term multi-year growth rates in key fundamental data points."

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 10:33 | 4013622 French Frog
French Frog's picture

You 2 sound like those spam emails received every day about stock X being ready to shoot up...

;-)

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 13:21 | 4014420 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

Cows are even stupider than sheep, if you can believe it.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:18 | 4013411 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

Generally, you only have to post a link once, ZH'ers are a pretty astute bunch.

And mostly, they don't like stinkie ole hippies...just saying.

Although the original premise of the Occupy Movement was pretty solid until the co-opting took place.

DaddyO

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:54 | 4013489 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

And mostly, they don't like stinkie ole hippies...just saying.

Speak for yourself.

Link?

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 13:54 | 4014568 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

No one invests in the government anymore. Buy stocks.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:11 | 4013394 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

just super;  i'll be dead way before that.  

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:20 | 4013412 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

many of us will be. So dig a hole, and bury your bonds, and make sure to leave a map for your kids. They will be worth a fortune.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 13:57 | 4014575 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

We'll place a couple of double-eagles over your eyes and give you a fiat tickertape parade.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:14 | 4013400 gjp
gjp's picture

'beatiful deleveraging'?  They're still trotting this crap out?  It was utter tripe from the minute the term was coined.  Ain't no deleveraging here.  We'll know it when we see it, and it sure won't be beautiful.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:14 | 4013402 Bahamas
Bahamas's picture

The bird in the illustration reminds me of the old saying: the early bird catches the worm". ,..may be it's a hint?

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:15 | 4013404 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The only moment that is left to wait for is that point in the future when the realization sets in that the bond market will cease to exist. When the fed has taken such a large ownership position in the treasury market that it is impossible to fight them and the only thing left to do is hand the rest of the UST's to them and call it a day. That is the moment when hyperinflation is supposed to set in because the path we are taking is permanent, and there is no going back. It's going to interesting to see what happens if that is not the case.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:54 | 4013496 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Uncharted waters.  Nobody knows because we've never been here before.

I just see a lot of insensitivity to monetary policy going on.  Almost like it doesn't matter what they do, so they just keep doing what they're doing.

Here's what I keep asking myself:  If the Fed forgave all the Treasury debt owed to it from the bonds they've bought up, would it matter?  The debt was already monetized the moment they bought it from the open market.  Cash is already out on the street.  Sure, it would wipe out their capital, but does the concept of equity even matter for a central bank?  Old capital gets wiped out, holdings get written off, and they self-recapitalize the next morning.  It would freak people out, but it's effect would be literally ZERO in terms of money supply.  And, of course, the national debt would drop by about $3T in one afternoon.  

Effectively this would be the opposite of the "Trillion Dollar Coin" idea because it would make both sides' balance sheets SMALLER, not larger.  

AND IT WOULD STILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE REAL ECONOMY.

Crazy, huh?  We keep looking at the Fed and reacting to their every nuanced announcement.  Yet, I wonder if we aren't too fixated on the great Oz and not realizing he really can't do much of anything about anything at this point.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 10:06 | 4013527 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Except fund another World War that might "extract" a billion lives this time.  Oh and profit from it again when the dust and other substances in it that aren't good for sustaining life settle.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 11:28 | 4013908 MrPalladium
MrPalladium's picture

Bingo!!

You are right to point out that the Fed is absolutely free from the normal balance sheet discipline that applies to a profit making corporation.

It could simply cancel the treasury debt (the asset) and cancel the offsetting liability (the obligation to take back the printed money as the debt matures). As you can see, the assets and liabilities bear no resemblance to the assets and libilities of any private entity.

Cancellation might require a few minor legislative changes, but it would free the government of the deflationary burden of repayment and I am convinced that everyone in D.C. understands this. I think that debt cancellation is a certainty as is the inflation that would follow. Watch Japan take the lead with central bank cancellation of its sovereign debt purchases.

Cancellation is the only way in which .gov can meet its welfare obligations.

Once this cancellation cat sticks its nose out of the bag, gold goes ballistic.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:15 | 4013406 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

These guys don't know jack shit.

'Predictions are hard, especially predictions about the future!'

These clowns think they've got the next 3 decades all plotted out now due to comparing to 1940 when none of them, not 1, called even what's going on right now from 5 years ago?

Garbage.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:19 | 4013413 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Just a heads up for anyone born last night, Bill Gross sells bonds.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:28 | 4013427 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Yeah, for him a Japan scenario would be about as good as he could hope for.

He may end up being right anyway.  I've said here many times that a Japan scenario is where I think we will end up, despite all calls for hyperinflation to the contrary.  It's the only solution that doesn't involve huge pain and dislocation for large constituencies.  Feels very much like something we would opt for over brief pain for a brighter future.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:36 | 4013440 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Imagine Uncle Sugar deleveraging his way out of $200T in unfunded liabilities < horselaff ! >

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:51 | 4013455 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea, these guys are smoking some good Heisenberg Hopium, and feasting on pie in the sky.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:54 | 4013490 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

i see a japan scenario in our future.  NO passive income.   stocks always flat or down, no yield anywhere.  eating the world's inflation a few percentage points at a time. 

did you hear that bill gross---NO measurable passive income. 

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 10:01 | 4013513 Baldrick
Baldrick's picture

there is not enough energy for the us to have a japan experience.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:15 | 4013407 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

I am dumb, please help:

 

Why is it inflation is seen as the savior for the economy? As if our wages were like TIPS and they moved with the inflation rate. No, wages stay the same, you spend more, recieve less.

 

Over the last 30 years, have we grown organically or just inflation? Ponzi scheme?

 

thanks

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:58 | 4013425 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

You have been lied to and language is often twisted to manage perceptions and allow certain folks to maintain power and control.

If wages were growing and we were really growing organically, the amount of energy available for consumption (which is what is required in order to actually make/produce anything real) then, that "inflation" would be fine.

However, with 7+ billion (and growing) living in a closed system, such as the earth, there is plenty of demand for a high quality of life (something that requires energy and even more if the population keeps growing).

The reason you hear the inflation/deflation bullshit so much is because banks/bankers (who own CONgress) cannot mark their assets to market, especially when prices are crashing.  Their insolvency would be even more obvious.  "Deflation" is bad for them, but good for you, because that fiat currency you are getting paid (in exchange for your labor) maintains it's purchasing power in the current monetary system.

In reality, there is no such thing as "deflation" in a world that uses fiat money.  Morevover, no society/fiat currency has ever collapsed/died because their purchasing power was too strong.

Inflation is theft, plain and simple, but it's the only way for any of the debt to be "paid" and the only way for banks and bankers to remain in power.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 10:23 | 4013579 swedish etrade baby
swedish etrade baby's picture

Stop fear mongering! Prices of soft commodoties have been going down for at least 30 years

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 12:48 | 4014282 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Ha!  Good sarcasm there.  Gone down huh?  "priced" in what exactly...

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:29 | 4013430 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

LOP gives a good answer and to add to your education if your question was sincere and not sarcasm, look up currency debasement for moar education.

DaddyO

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 11:04 | 4013754 4 wheel drift
4 wheel drift's picture

indeed you (and we all) have been lied to.

keynesianism is the tool that politicians have used to do this, and as expected, the free $hit army (those who receive benefits from the gov.) are all too pleased to support the thieves and liars in DC...  (and the reason that economists are the modern day voodoo priests for the politicians)

the debt explosion that went bust was created by the "seek/chase for yield" (indeed using passive investments) which in the end (being that money was readily available) ended up in tears....  and the gov. itself was the main promoter and user of debt, (with a slight difference that they have the power indirectly to simply PRINT more $ as needed), whereas private enterprises and individual do not have such luxury....

while i am believer in gold/silver as a regulating force to retain value in one's currency/savings....  the digital money, the ability of the US Dollar to remain as reserve currency around the world, the fact that the US Dollar continues to be the currency you need to trade oil and is used widely in general commercial trade.... NOT to mention that central bankers can manipulate the precious metal markets... almost at will....   limits the ability of gold and silver to give propper protection....  (perhaps in the very long run, it will)

so as for the individual.....  there is only one way to create value and thrive even in this sickening environment.....  which is the old fashion way....

WORK YER ARSE OFF !    creating REAL things..  namely: manufacturing things with demand...  (not very popular in the USA or any other country where cradle to grave care is in vogue).....  hence the search for the right environment where government does not impede and intrude in every aspect of your life....   including the lack of real terrorists, such as the  IRS.....  is all important.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:17 | 4013410 Agent P
Agent P's picture

1% for the 1% and SNAP for the rest of us.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:19 | 4013414 shinobi-7
shinobi-7's picture

And there was growth then with plenty of cheap oil to power it.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:25 | 4013420 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture

Gold Smashed Down Yesterday and now USD is falling out of bed < 0.80

Gold Smashed Down In Desperation As COMEX Inventory Remains Thin


Now we have the report from Jesse which shows us the reason for the recent run on the Gold. Game of the musical chairs is unfolding in front of our eyes, there is no Gold left for deliveries as China is taking everything availible from the system now. The very existence of Gold bullion banks fractional reserve system is under question now. http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/gold-smashed-down-in-desperation-as.html# Gold Manipulation: With China On A Weeklong National Holiday - Furloughed Government Workers Selling Gold, Silver? GLD, SLV, TNR.v, MUX


"What a timing! Gold is smashed big time again and it is so convenient that China is on a weeklong National Holiday now. It is such a shame that CFTC can not find any signs of Gold & Silver market manipulation. We could not even think that 800,000 furloughed Government employees are such big Gold savers and holders up to this day...and Have to Sell Gold today to cover the delay in paychecks.   Can we safely assume that US Dollar will dive now below 0.80 and FED is already in the damage control mode? All resources are lined up to defend this line in the sand for US Dollar - below 0.80 it can experience the Waterfall stage. With Government shut down is only an opening to the Debt Ceiling gambit, we can expect more FED moves defying the normal laws of gravity for US Dollar.   We will keep you posted Who is Selling and Who is buying the cheaper Gold & Silver  this time."


Eric Sprott: "China Bought 60% of Gold Production Last Month, I Am Buying Gold And Silver Stocks Now." MUX, TNR.v


"Price of Gold and Silver will be the main driving forces for all survived companies. Eric has very bold prediction for Gold going to $2400 by next year: "The most important thing in the precious metals business - the price of precious metals. They all go up if the price of Gold will go up. The question is which one will go up 200% or 500%. If the Gold will go up to $2400, I can bet that the Gold miners index goes up 200%. What we are trying to do: where is the one which will go up 1000%."   This summer we had the capitulation in Gold and Silver stocks with the following turn around and now we are looking to the Eric Sprott and Rick Rule for guidance to run this new Bull. China will play the very important role in this big picture, according to Eric."

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:26 | 4013422 Bahamas
Bahamas's picture

humanity is just obsolete

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:59 | 4013510 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Oxford agrees.

But let's be honest, some humans are more obsolete than others. Which ones? Hang tight, the important people will let us know.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:26 | 4013423 youngman
youngman's picture

They are forgetting one or two things.....the Black Swans that will show up unexpected......October suprises....whatever it is that is what will change the world....there is no beautiful either..it will be disaster

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 12:27 | 4014187 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

yep, 2008 was an appetizer.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:28 | 4013424 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

There'll be no taper in my lifetime. We'll eventually see $2,500 gold, $200 oil and many other increases in prices of commodities liek coffee, cotton, merino wool, and of course, food.

Air travel will be an almost impossible action for most people as rates skyrocket. Health insurance...who knows at this point.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 12:00 | 4014040 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

I expect a slightly different outcome.

Gold will be $25,000

and

Air travel will be almost impossible due to too many drones

But maybe I'm a few years younger than you.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 12:34 | 4014223 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

I'm trying to understand the dynamics of the demand side of the stagflation.      Current policy is killing jobs and declining economic growth(soon to be retractions).    How does that figure in to inflation.   

We don't have the classic inflation scenario of coming out of a recession with an igniting economy and fractional reserve lending growing the money supply exponentially.  That is NOT happening.   None of the stimulus/QE got to main street.

If people don't have jobs, there will be falling demand for goods/services/homes.   How do prices increase in the face of that?  The opposite force is the flight of paper money into hard goods for wealth preservation.   The intersection is prices.   

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:26 | 4013426 csmith
csmith's picture

Per the "cows":

Those Who Sacrifice Liberty For Security Deserve Neither - Ben Franklin

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:30 | 4013431 Gutenberg
Gutenberg's picture

Lets see in 1940s we were on a gold standard, not now, GDP was calculated differently, unemployment was calculated differently, we were not 210 trillion in debt, students not saddled with student loan debt, we won the war and had to rebuild the world, half of Europe we did not have access to, china was a third world country, no Medicare and obamacare, no dot com and housing bubbles blown, yep great comparisons because all the external variables in the 1940s climate are the same today. I am sure we can list numerous others like coming out of the deleveraged or depression 1930s perhaps. What could go wrong with this forecasting?

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 10:05 | 4013523 Baldrick
Baldrick's picture

we also no longer have an abundance of cheap oil.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:29 | 4013432 Gutenberg
Gutenberg's picture

Lets see in 1940s we were on a gold standard, not now, GDP was calculated differently, unemployment was calculated differently, we were not 210 trillion in debt, students not saddled with student loan debt, we won the war and had to rebuild the world, half of Europe we did not have access to, china was a third world country, no Medicare and obamacare, no dot com and housing bubbles blown, yep great comparisons because all the external variables in the 1940s climate are the same today. I am sure we can list numerous others like coming out of the deleveraged or depression 1930s perhaps. What could go wrong with this forecasting?

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:29 | 4013433 sansnobel
sansnobel's picture

"The Fed will have to taper, cease and then desist someday. They can’t just keep adding one trillion dollars to their balance sheet every year without something negative happening – either accelerating inflation, a tanking dollar or a continued unwillingness on the part of corporations to invest because of the resultant low and unacceptable returns on investment. QE (quantitative easing) has to die sometime."

Uhmmm, Bill no they will not have to stop intervening. Wether it's outright capital controls or wars or whatever you want, they give central planning a new meaning. They have the ability to do what they do because of sheep and a deluded populace that worships them as Gods. The printing will continue because they don't have to apply normal accounting. Their cost of capital is $0.00
You can always make yourself and your rich friends around you richer because it is a never ending put on asset prices.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 10:02 | 4013521 SnatchnGrab
SnatchnGrab's picture

Have to agree with the above. The Fed does NOT have to stop tapering. Why should they? Things go south the taxpayer is left paying the bill. Meanwhile congress is too inept to even ask the right questions and the American people are too busy watching Dancing with the Stars.

The MSM either ignores the story or downplays the significance of the debt problem.

You have too choices here: Either you can believe that tptb are inept or malicious. In any event, sooner or later, there will be a reckoning.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:31 | 4013437 tokengator
Wed, 10/02/2013 - 17:29 | 4013536 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

Token, you need a bit more melodrama in that post, to attract the kind of attention your link deserves. I was just skimming the posts to see if anyone else caught the news the other day. Good job posting the news.

----------------------

Who gives a crap what this lying dickbag (Bill "crooked" Gross) has to say about anything? I always knew he was crooked, and we now have plenty of evidence to indicate he's just another whore... paid for and used. Sure, he profited, at the expense of the rest of humanity. Way to go. The fact that he was bad-mouthing fed policy all the while coordinating his actions with the fed... that's no different than the JPM / GS / any other fucking bank / corporation / corrupt entity... all of them are proving this financial system is inhumane... what good is a financial system among people when it's inhumane? None, that's what.

People, wake the fuck up for fucks sake... everyone you believe in is a lying scumbag... everything you believe in is a lie, intended to profit the dickbags who are profiting... you can spot them, they're worth lots of your money...stop listening to these dickheads. Think for yourself and don't worship anyone.

Alright, my work here is done. I know, no one is listening, which sucks.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:33 | 4013438 Mototard at Large
Mototard at Large's picture

Off topic, but the “War on the Rocks” website has an article on how big data is being used to try and figure out if the war in Afghanistan is being won or lost.  Not a pretty picture, but an interesting article. http://warontherocks.com/2013/10/are-we-winning-yet-let-astray-by-metrics/

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:36 | 4013449 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

The big problem with the Fed setting low rates is that Wall Street takes advantage of the low rates to pile up vast amounts of junk debt.  That will destabilize the system and crash it.

 

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:46 | 4013475 sansnobel
sansnobel's picture

If Wall Street buys up some "toxic shit" then who do you think is really owning that toxic sludge in the end? Think about the game, lather rinse repeat.....

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:37 | 4013452 FranSix
FranSix's picture

In Yellowknife, the crows are as big as dogs and follow you around, seemingly out of ennui.

That being said, negative nominal rates at the short end of the curve provides an automatic twist for eventual lower long rates.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:48 | 4013476 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"The Fed will have to taper, cease and then desist someday."

Maybe somebody could send them a "cease and desist" letter...

FedFUBAR.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:50 | 4013479 bobert
bobert's picture

The central bank is able to buy several trillion more in treasuries without any negative ramifications.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:53 | 4013482 Running On Bing...
Running On Bingo Fuel's picture

Hate to say it, but this guy is truly odd. I'd like to meet him as he could add to my repertoire.

Over.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:53 | 4013483 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

If he really said this, then I think less of him for it.  There is no way the systematic assumptions necessary for such a projection prediction to hold, will remain static when so many of the related economic issues and technology are changing exponentially.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 10:10 | 4013492 Mercury
Mercury's picture

The critical question to ask in terms of the level and eventual upward guide path of the policy rate is how high a rate can a levered economy stand? How much wood can a woodchuck chuck? How high a rate can a homebuyer handle? No one really knows,...

 

That's what the market is for Bill. How about asking the government to get the hell out of the way so we can figure that out and let capital be allocated accordingly? Maybe then those of us without F-U money won't be condemed to a genration of central planning depression.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 10:12 | 4013539 rawsienna
rawsienna's picture

When I invest in my business  - people/infrastructure/systems/etc -  if I am wrong I go out of business -  When I invest in "financial" assets such as stocks, if I wam wrong I have a put from the Fed. Which hurdle rate is higher?

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 10:25 | 4013581 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Dalio's a sharp guy but he falls for the monetariest alchemy trap that a bit of powdered unicorn horn and a dash of pixie dust in just the right proportions will lead to...

POOF. A beautiful deleveraging.

This is a faith based initiative. Smart guys doing smart things can win out.

Thin evidence both can occur.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 10:50 | 4013712 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

 

 

Unless I read the article too fast, the focus seems to be on Policy Rates and how Fed can't raise them.  Certainly the impact YTD from higher mortgage rates shows what happens in what's sort of like a real economy.

 

But what about overly-leveraged corporations paying dividends from debt instead of earnings?  How long can corporations add debt before capacity is used up?  Even if the Fed doesn't budge policy rates, corporate spreads are as tight today as 2010 and 2004.  All it would take is one high-profile default to end the debt/dividend game.

 

What is the timeline for rising debt exhausting future capacity versus wider spreads / higher yields hitting existing capacity?

 

I assume equity valuations would be more volatile in an environment where dividends could actually be shut-down by a blow out in funding costs versus stop rising because of lower economic growth.

 

Can't get over the disconnect where Treasury yields can rise because of ending QE but equities drive on without any impact at all.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 10:56 | 4013740 Pullmyfinger
Pullmyfinger's picture

I think this article is offering a false dichotomy. Both Dalio and Gross seem to be looking at the world through straws, while we are asked to buy into one tiny peephole view over the other as the "right" view ---whereas the reader should probably just cry himself to sleep before he reaches the third or fourth paragraph.

And please stop talking about "tapering." It's just waaaay too late, and at this point, is just another doublethink buzzword to keep the zombies mesmerized, even if only for one day at a time.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 11:31 | 4013932 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

How do rates stay low without QE?  Not without sacrificing the stock market, which I don't think they are willing to do unless they absolutely have to, so I say we see QE "to infinity and beyond"!!

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 11:40 | 4013962 ich1baN
ich1baN's picture

Oh boy. Mr. Gross, you do realize your finite mind can't comprehend god's infinite creation because if it were so simple, we would make ourselves much more proud than we already are. 

Bill, I do like your investment outlook and monetary view, but I do have to warn you and tell you, you are playing with fire when you tell God you could have created the world better. You are claiming that you know "better" than God's way. How infallible and simple your thoughts are Bill. 

In your small mind, the world seems like uneeded suffering; ah but you forget Bill. Who brought this uneeded suffering in the world? If you could answer this question and soberly look in the mirror, you will realize it was us who brought it into this world. 

The lion and the lamb laid down next to each other before we sinned in the Garden. Our sin has brought a curse in the world, and God's redemptive gameplan is at work now Mr. Gross.

Wake up and realize who it is that formed you in your mother's womb. Who was it that knitted the heavens? Were you there when God laid the foundations of the Earth? Who stretched out the tent curtains to dwell in? Who decided how large the Earth would be? Who laid the cornerstone of the world? Do you know all the answers?

I guess you missed this verse in Proverbs 16:18

Pride  goes before destruction,
    a haughty spirit before a fall.

 

 

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 12:50 | 4014290 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

so the all merciful god punishes everyone for other people's screw ups, right.  reality=> mother nature is a bitch. 

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 16:11 | 4015320 zipit
zipit's picture

You were off to a good start, anyway.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 13:59 | 4014584 moneybots
moneybots's picture

What deleveraging?  Total debt is rising.  The only deleveraging was during the 2008 crash.

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