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Only Payroll Indicator In Shutdown Week Disappoints As ADP Misses, Follows Large Downward Revisions

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the BLS shutdown, and this Friday's NFP report indefinitely delayed, the only labor report this week would be the (highly inaccurate) anticipated ADP Private Payrolls data. Moments ago it came, and disappointed all those hoping that finally, after five years, the Fed's shotgun wealth creation strategy may be working when it not only missed expectations of 180K, instead printing at 166K with the bulk of jobs created in the service-providing sector, but excluding massive downard revisions (July from 198K to 161K, August from 176K to 159K), would have been the lowest print of the past 4 months. And while, finally, some 1000 manufacturing jobs were created in September, for the first time in over a year the high-paying financial sector saw an exodus of 4000 jobs. Wave goodbye to the "third half" 2013 recovery.

Quote the Obama administration wannabe favorite Mark Zandi:

"The job market appears to have softened in recent months. Fiscal austerity has begun to take a toll on job creation. The run-up in interest rates may also be doing some damage to jobs in the financial services industry. While job growth has slowed, there remains a general resilience in the market. Job creation continues to be consistent with a slowly declining unemployment rate.”

More from the chart-friendly report:

Historical Trend - Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment (in thousands) Tweet this chart

Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size (in thousands) Tweet this chart

Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry (in thousands) Tweet this chart

Download the Press Release

National Employment Report
For more data and analysis, download the press release.

Download Press Release

For additional insights, download the historical data (Excel file)

Subscribe to receive reports monthly via email or RSS:

About This Report: The ADP National Employment Report provides a monthly snapshot of the current U.S. nonfarm private sector employment situation based on actual transactional payroll data.

 

National Employment Report
For more data and analysis, download the press release.

Download Press Release

For additional insights, download the historical data (Excel file)

Subscribe to receive reports monthly via email or RSS:

Contact Us

ADP Research Institute®

Call: (973) 974-7406
Email: ADP Research Institute

Media Inquiries

Call: (617) 520-7048
Email: Public Relations

New Products or Services

Call: (800) 225-5237

- See more at: http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2013/September/NER/NER-September-2013.aspx#sthash.ZQzdGprQ.dpuf

Compare today's chart to last month's far better trending data:

 

Historical Trend - Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment

 

Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size

 

Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry

d

Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry (in thousands) Tweet this chart

- See more at: http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2013/September/NER/NER-September-2013.aspx#sthash.ZQzdGprQ.dpuf

 

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Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:33 | 4013319 prains
prains's picture

Okay_ who the fuck is "buying" all these "services" this sector constantly prints creation thereof

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:35 | 4013323 Shocker
Shocker's picture

Job Picture - Layoffs/Closing/Bankrupcties

Check: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

 

/

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:37 | 4013330 negative rates
negative rates's picture

There are going to be some lonely numbers jugglers waitng for the circus act to return to normal. Situtation normal, all messed up.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:56 | 4013364 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Recovery?

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:58 | 4013370 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

This is boring.  Let's talk about JCPenney some more.  They just got sued.  Can't imagine why.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jc-penney-sued-over-share-sale-stock-plung...

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:11 | 4013389 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Can we repeal the child labor laws as we transition to the 29.5 hour work weeks.....that would help my family out a lot.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 13:49 | 4014537 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

The Ministry of Truth (BLS) can't even report their own job losses, now that is funny.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:40 | 4013336 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

The rise is service sector jobs was due in large part to the UN meetings in NYC and the subsequent run on all things stripper/callgirl related.

Didn't take a PhD economist to figure that out...

DaddyO

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:44 | 4013473 Upswaller
Upswaller's picture

My favorite economist, EJMoosa, predicted this months ago:  Absolute 3-5 month leading trend of Earnings to Employment.  I'm no economist, and he's a friend of mine, but his predictions are dead-on as we've spoken.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 10:06 | 4013525 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

I'm wondering if Merck's firing 8,500 + 7,500 scientists and researchers in their R&D helped these 'robust' numbers.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-01/merck-top-scientist-plans-major...

At least Amazon jobs are available...on a temp basis in their warehouse:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-01/amazon-to-hire-70-000-seasonal-...

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:54 | 4013359 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

"the Fed's shotgun wealth creation strategy"

That hardly seems accurate.  ALL of the money being injected is going to an extremely small subset of an extremely small percentage of the people who are a part of this country's economy - the uber rich bankers.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:36 | 4013436 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

The paper is revolving in ever increasing quantity at the top of the pyramid while what little paper remains at the bottom is being diluted in value, taxed more and more, and basically being vacuumed out to increase for closures.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:37 | 4013450 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Maybe the Fed believes some of that money will trickle down... even if it is to hookers, drug dealers and cabana boys.  Bankers are leading us to recovery!  /s

FedFUBAR.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:53 | 4013360 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Jesse Ventura/Howard Stern for President!

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:35 | 4013320 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

So that's what made PMs soar, if only for a moment.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:37 | 4013325 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

What we need is clearly moar financial "products" and "services" of mass destruction.

Get your derivatives here!

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:41 | 4013334 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Does that come with a side a affidavits?

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:46 | 4013347 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

of course, but at a great additional expense.  Will that be cash, check, or do you have a printer?

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:37 | 4013326 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

FRIES ARE UP!

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:37 | 4013328 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

MOAR BS

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:38 | 4013332 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

why the bls bothers to revise it's lies (um data) is the big ?...to avoid criminal prosecution perhaps??

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:40 | 4013333 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

One last time! We have one moar tool!

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/debt-ceiling-treasury-final-extraordinary-measures-97690.html

When you cannot borrow anymore or get new money to come in, the Ponzi is up!

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:47 | 4013350 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Halarious, the article is written such that it gives you the impression that they are really trying to save the system, when in fact a new system cannot be implimented until the old one is destroyed, which is what is really going on.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:41 | 4013341 Bosch
Bosch's picture

Anyone else wondering when the BLS numbers are finally released post-shutdown the 0bama lackies will use it as a chance to "clean-up" their bogus BS numbers with some truly awful numbers as a chance to blame the GOP? 

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:43 | 4013342 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

I've often thought of entering into a partime service sector job. Oh, are you a Roman Catholic? Then I'm sorry, but I'm afraid you can't come.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:50 | 4013353 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Thanks to technology hardly anyone needs to work. You don't want people working to stimulate the economy, you want the redistribution of wealth to stimulate the economy.

Up my FASFA Bernanke Mother Fucker.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:52 | 4013355 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Would you like fries with that jobs report, sir?

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:52 | 4013356 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Did the porn industry ever get back on its feet (so to speak)?

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 08:59 | 4013372 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Yes, it did. You didn't think it would take an ass-reaming lying down, now did you?

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:01 | 4013373 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Still flat on it's back.

Or.... they've fallen and can't get it up.

Etc.

They're fine.  They pronounced themselves all healthy, fit as a fiddle, and fired up the cameras again.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:03 | 4013381 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

According to a recent article on the health of the porn industry, the only bright spot was the revelation that celebrity sex tapes were the only thing making money.

But I read another article that said the 7 figure payouts were a myth, it seemed that low five figures was the average cash payout with the promise of royalties which never get paid.

DaddyO

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:01 | 4013375 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Can furloughed government "workers" get unemployment?

 

Can we furlough the Cheesepope?

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:05 | 4013388 d edwards
d edwards's picture

No B(s)LS info available?

So what-just make something up like they always do!

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:03 | 4013382 Sid James
Sid James's picture

Queue tumbleweed blowing down Fifth Avenue.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:03 | 4013385 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

Well, the last 30 minutes yesterday has to rank right up there with one of the top 5 most fucked up, criminal moves I've ever seen. The silver lining - the market makers have adjusted to the HFTs and are now igniting them in completely bogus and stupid moves by just moving the asks up in $1 increments when they are looking to ignite. We should see some more HFT firms go under soon

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:16 | 4013403 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

I am hoping for 3 weeks of government shutdown so that they can ramp this mf'er past 16k. Futures duly noted.

Can we haz our 85 billion dollar allowance now, Mr Cheesepope?

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:26 | 4013421 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Until these shut-downers start kicking some ass at NSA, Justice, Homeland, et al., its all just a big yawn.

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:32 | 4013439 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

Stocks are doing fine...hold strong for the debt ceiling, Boehner! Scorched earth FTW!

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:35 | 4013445 Proofreder
Proofreder's picture

GOLD GAPS UP

About 14 minutes before the payroll indicator announcement, spot Gold spiked by $6.66 cents in less than a minute; penetration of 1303 followed quickly and ATTM, an ounce of the heavy stuff is hovering near 1300.  Who could'a known?

Wondering if a low is in place at 1277 ???  Is there a numerologist in the house?

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 09:42 | 4013464 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Don't confuse paper with actual physical metal. The GLD is not even paper any more, it's zero's and one's...

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 10:15 | 4013544 Mad Muppet
Mad Muppet's picture

"Anyone else wondering when the BLS numbers are finally released post-shutdown the 0bama lackies will use it as a chance to "clean-up" their bogus BS numbers with some truly awful numbers as a chance to blame the GOP? "

Bosch, you're brilliant. Never let a crisis go to waste, right?

Wed, 10/02/2013 - 10:45 | 4013683 constantine
constantine's picture

Following this insolence on the part of ADP, Congress will now be able to agree on one thing in unanimity; the BLS from this point on will be classified as an essential government entity immune to budget standoff shutdown.  Expect the little known revision to pass in the dead of night... a celebration of bipartisanship.

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