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About The "Europe Is Recovering" Meme
Even Mario Draghi noted this week that the markets should be ignored by policy makers (as they should focus on reforms) and explained that the European economy has downside risks and is "weak and fragile" So why is it that so many still claim Europe is the place to be? Aside from it being an excuse for nothing less than momentum-chasing muppets to pile in and get a soundbite on TV, the truth is that European macro data is not only now worse than the US but has fallen to 7 week lows. So your new clean shirt is the US again... just ignore the debt-ceiling issues, earnings warnings, and looming Fed taper...
European macro data is now well below US and has fallen to 7-week lows...
but for now the trend is your friend as investors pile into bets on a US slowdown (value beating growth) and a European recovery (growth being value)...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Get monsieur a bucket!
Europe will remained mired in stagnation as long as the euro persists. Eventually, the rot will even spread to Germany. And it's the European Recovery Meme:
http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2013/01/18/elements-of-the-recovering-eurozone-meme/
from an Austrian School perspective, the eurozone is taking a lot of pain now, instead of tomorrow. and yes, this is done through the EUR, instead of gold. a more elastic currency
but gold isn't an option, at the moment. just saying
Thus speaketh the most vociferous Euro apologist on ZH.
Current economic conditions remind of the 4th quarter of 2007 when all was considered mostly well, with the market continuing to climb in the face of deteriorating fundamentals. Hell the market was climbing so that must mean all was well.....right?
<What....me worried?>
We know what happened next........2008 happened next.
brings back memories...after October 2007 rebound high, next chance to exit was the rebound into early May to around 1340 S&P, and last best chance was the July rebound toward 1300 S&P...following that it was like Waiting for Godot in Chop Chop Square..
Hopefully you're right.
One difference between then and now is that PMs won't sink (as deep) and maybe stawks won't either - the Fed will react faster and increase QE to $100bn/month if they think it's necessary.
Indeed Cog.
I was shifting my client portfolios in late 2007, and they thought I was nuts....began my gold and silver coins buy campaign...dragging them all in.........had to endure several months of "Hopium"....then we all watched as others got pole-axed...
My ONLY nick? Some Lehmann bonds that were inherited, and thought to be "investment grade"...
THAT was an expensive weekend of 10/15......and once that shit happened, whatever faith I had in the US government evaporated.
The European Recovery; It's why God invented Short Contracts on Stock Indexes. Thank God for human stupidity; without it I might have to work for a living.
Please ignore the facade we have created so that you can see the horrific reality. That way, we have an excuse to continue the facade, and then we will all feel better, no?
The EURO is like GOLD compared to the USD.
Europe is like heaven, and the USA is like Hell.
So go ahead ZH gatekeeper, keep bashing the one of the few good places on earth,
But just remember, that before you throw rocks in glass houses, you should look in the mirror,
The USD is shit, but you never here ZH post OP's that say this essential truth.
Today only a few currency's are AAA, ... CFH, SGD, and I think Norway,...
But the EURO is still in much better shape than the god-damn toilet paper called USD.
what are you talking about? I am a "European" ...
"The EURO is like GOLD compared to the USD." - wrong, the Euro is unbacked fiat currency. It is being printed via LTRO 1 & 2 by the ECB and banks are hoarding the cash. Why? They are insolvent and if that money makes way to the public it is inflation galore.
"one of the few good places on earth" - I live in Europe and we are in a debt spiral with huge government dependancy. 60% youth unemployment in Greece, 40% youth unemployment in Portugal. The list goes on! Wake up man. I live in Europe.
"The USD is shit, but you never here ZH post OP's that say this essential truth" - wrong again, the Euro is shit and ZH bashes the USD too. Perhaps you do not understand that we, on this site, defend sound money?
"Today only a few currency's are AAA, ... CFH, SGD, and I think Norway,... " - there is no such thing as a AAA rated currency in an unbacked fiat system. How about depositing your fiat currency in a Danish bank, let's see if you like negative interest rate returns? I think not.
Listen, if you are coming onto this site and you feel offended by "Euro bashing" then it is better you look at the unelected and accountable European Union. Were it not for the FED, the EU would be finished. Ben Bernanke pumped trillions into European banks - get your facts straight.
I do NOT understand this blind allegiance to a Union that dictates all laws, has un unauditable Central Bank, has NO fiscal Union and has NO respect for national sovereignty. The EUs accounting books have NEVER been signed off by any accountant, check with Marta Andreasen about this very fact. How about going to the Directorate Generals in the EU and ask them to explain all of the money laundering that they sanction? Who are you to stand up and feel offended by what ZH presents? Have you sat down to look at Norway's system and why they are able to expand their massive welfare state? Oil, it is that simple. When Norway reaches peak oil they will suffer the same fate as the UK did post Margaret Thatcher.
in summary - get your facts straight about the Euro and the EU. You have a lot to learn still my fellow European Citizen.
btw, fuck that blue flag with 12 blue stars on it - I owe ZERO alleagiance to that flag. Capische? Capische.
Euro the greatest place on earth my foot.
Now THAT is what I call a spanking!
Bravo!
spanking? don't know, but a few details need straightening
"...you look at the unelected and (un?)accountable European Union (1). Were it not for the FED, the EU would be finished. Ben Bernanke pumped trillions into European banks - get your facts straight. (2)
I do NOT understand this blind allegiance to a Union that dictates all laws (3), has un unauditable Central Bank (4), has NO fiscal Union (5) and has NO respect for national sovereignty (6)"
1: the EU has a confederative setup. power is shared between an elected parliament and the council, which is nothing else than the (mostly appointed by national parliaments) governments of the members, answerable (and recallable) to their elected parliaments (exceptions: France and Romania, where presidents are elected directly). those two bodies appoint a commission. but in a nutshell, because it's a confederation, the council, i.e. the national governments call the shots. yet somehow this approach seems to be the most misunderstood of all, about the EU
2: so Ben saved the "european banks"? very debatable. are we talking about their USD holdings and assets/liabilities? or is this still a remembrance about the "Big Swap" that has been reversed? are we talking about banks like the German Landesbanken or megabanks, particularly London-based ones? "Ben saved..." what? the whole world, including all EM stock markets?
3: what blind allegiance? the UK is talking about leaving, remember? what laws? don't you know that the EU has only the right to make laws in narrowly, treaty-defined sectors? most european legislation is (still) centered on the national parliaments, and most EU legislation that meets (national) resistance is withdrawn. further, in most fields countries can opt out (if they want)
4: the ECB and the (mostly national) central banks that form it are all audited (the "audit issue" is about the EU, not the ECB) (link)
5: that's a feature, not a bug. you can't argue FOR national sovereignty AND fiscal union AT THE SAME TIME
6: oh, poor, poor national sovereignty. come on, get real. who has the taxes, the police forces, the armies and the navies? sovereign means "able to go to war if it feels so", at the end of the day
"1: the national governments call the shots. yet somehow this approach seems to be the most misunderstood of all, about the EU" - you are wrong, governments do not call the shots when EU directives/laws are shaped ib Brussels without national parliament debate. You are wrong Ghordius.
"2: "Ben saved..." what? the whole world, including all EM stock markets?" - you are wrong again, Ben did not save anything and did not shove money into the EU banking system. The EU banks are up to their necks with bad loans, sovereign debts, derivatives and have been selling toxic financial products to unwilling clients. Who else buys government debt from EU nations? The ECB, the ESM and national banks.
"3: in most fields countries can opt out (if they want)" .- what are you talking about? Those directives are NEVER debated or opted out from. This is ridiculous, you are almost saying that the EU commission simply is there to suggest laws which are never imposed. That is incorrect. The EU has NEVER respected the outcome of a referendum in the past. Countries CANNOT opt out.
" 6: oh, poor, poor national sovereignty. come on, get real. who has the taxes, the police forces, the armies and the navies? sovereign means "able to go to war if it feels so", at the end of the day " - who are you to undermine national sovereignty? Your line of thinking is what has lead to many wars in Europe. Ask Hitler what he thought of sovereignty. Yes, you have a blind allegiance to this union and you show contempt to independent nations that wet to WAR with each other to have seperate borders.Europeans do NOT like one another. Germans do not like the Portuguese and vice versa.
Your Diretorate Generals (funny name huh?) are unelected, unaccountable and live in the shadows. They contol those commissioners and money inflows/outflows. Only DICTATORS cling to that sort of power, that is undeniable.
Ghordius, welcome to yout new USSR. Barroso was a MAOIST and will always be one.
1. if you study a bit how the EU really works, you'll find out that no legislation can be originated by the EU parliament. also, no legislation can be drafted by the commission without being directed so by the council. who has to approve the draft, first, and only then any EU law can be approved or rejected by the elected EU parliament
now, who is this all powerful council? it's what Americans would call the national administrations. what on the Continent is commonly called "governments". UK PM Cameron, the directly elected French and Romanian Presidents, the Prime Ministers of Spain, Italy, Belgium, Denmark. The German Chancellor, etc. etc.
now, with the exception of France and Romania, under which thumb are all those people? answer: their national parliaments. who can throw them out and set up new governments, if they like
2. your original point was "Were it not for the FED, the EU would be finished. Ben Bernanke pumped trillions into European banks - get your facts straight. (2)"
now you answer with "you are wrong again, Ben did not save anything and did not shove money into the EU banking system. The EU banks are up to their necks with bad loans, sovereign debts, derivatives and have been selling toxic financial products to unwilling clients. Who else buys government debt from EU nations? The ECB, the ESM and national banks."
I find it confusing. which side are you arguing again?
3: in most fields countries can opt out (if they want)" . "- what are you talking about? Those directives are NEVER debated or opted out from. This is ridiculous, you are almost saying that the EU commission simply is there to suggest laws which are never imposed. That is incorrect. The EU has NEVER respected the outcome of a referendum in the past. Countries CANNOT opt out."
I'm sorry, but you do have to make a difference between a directive (which is similar to a decree and needs a law framing and supporting it), a law and a referendum
further, you have to understand the Opt-outs in the European Union and how they work out. The most famous one is the UK and the EUR. Outcome: the UK is not obliged to ever join the EUR. but any nation must first say that it wants an opt-out. usually this is done in the council, where the EU law is first thought up
further, "the EU has never respected the outcome of a referendum" is pure propaganda. If you want to be cynic and precise, you would have to say that several national political elites found that they have either to propose a new, amended one or that they had to make a treaty bundles instead of a constitutional approach
don't confuse national decisions with EU decisions, they are two very different things
6: ... national sovereignty. come on, get real. who has the taxes, the police forces, the armies and the navies? sovereign means "able to go to war if it feels so", at the end of the day
"who are you to undermine national sovereignty? Your line of thinking is what has lead to many wars in Europe. Ask Hitler what he thought of sovereignty. Yes, you have a blind allegiance to this union and you show contempt to independent nations that wet to WAR with each other to have seperate borders.Europeans do NOT like one another. Germans do not like the Portuguese and vice versa."
am I? where? an independent, sovereign body is fully so when it has the means, the capability and the will to go to war. if it decides to. in order to achieve this "status", it needs the authority to raise taxes, to arm standing armies and air forces, perhaps a navy. and of course national police forces
now of course a sovereign can engage in treaties. which can be rescinded, amended or broken, always with war as the ultima ratio, the ultimate "threat"
that's not war mongering, that's just stating facts. France is sovereign, Scotland isn't, for example
that's also the reason why the UK might leave the EU
Devotional said: "btw, fuck that blue flag with 12 blue stars on it - I owe ZERO alleagiance to that flag. Capische?"
the nice thing about that flag is that it does not require any allegiance from you. it does not call you to war. should you ever get into a war, even if drafted by force, it won't be the flag flying over you. and you can burn it without breaking any law (unlike in the US and a few other countries) or getting a lot of dirty looks (unlike in most countries)
just think for a moment about that
that flag is rubber stamped on my driver's license, my car's number plate and it is mandatory on evey public building. It is NOT my country's flag. ZERO allegiance.
well, on the same public building flying the EU flag you'll find the national flag, often more prominently or in the middle, and next to it the flag of whatever is local, be it community or city or region or autonomous state. so?
my point is that all authority (and required allegiance) is derived from that national flag of your sovereign country. which is engaged by treaties into what we call the EU
if your sovereign nation, whatever that is, leaves the EU, the EU flag is taken away. what part of "no allegiance required" did you not understand?
Rah! Rah! Sis Boom Bah!
well smote Devo...Bravo!
Norway reached peak oil ten years ago.
today they produce a million barrels less pr day than during that time.
Americans tend to live in bigger houses. But there does seem to be one significant advantage in Europe for average people, which is that if you don't have much money, you tend to be safer in Europe than in the US. In the US, not having money usually means you have to live in an unsafe place where you are more likely to become a crime victim. Everybody in America knows this and that has a lot to do with overpriced housing being a barrier to living in safe areas--it's to keep away the criminals from a sort of de facto gated community, where the walls are the high prices.
In Europe, not being rich is not necessarily dangerous. Furthermore, in America most of the good things in life are privatized, as if poorer people should be made to suffer for the stigma of being poor. European poor seem to have more access to a better lifestyle. Perhaps this will not last, but that has been the pattern up to now.
Regarding the Euro, it is partially backed by gold. Rumors of its demise have been greatly exaggerated. Latest predictions are that it coul go to $1.45 in the near term. Most of the euro-bashing comes from the brits and the Americans, who don't approve of the non-Darwinian aspects of the European system.
What the Americans and Brits desire may come to pass with more immigration from Africa and the middle east. This has the apperance of an almost concerted effort to undermine the native European cultures.
The major difference between Europe and America in a nutshell is taxation and social welfare programs. Europe has much more of both but with the socialist in the White House, America is closing the gap. The Europeans are far more adept in wealth redistribution than America. They have figured out how to tax everything (with the exception of sex). Unfortunately, the cost of their social welfare programs severely exceed the high level of taxation so the debt problems continue to grow.
You are correct about the increased immigration from Africa and the Middle East. It is not the European cultures they are undermining. They are overwhelming the social welfare programs to the point where the European states will have no choice but to either eliminate them or severely curtail them. When that happens, I suspect Europe will begin to look more like America.
according to the FT's Martin Wolf (comment section Oct 2nd) the US health system costs 18% of GDP. The next "highest spender" is France, with 12%
Further, he states that the US public sector spends a higher share of GDP than Italy, the UK, Japan and Canada
perhaps there is not much gap to close left
The absolute ONLY thing that keeps the Euro from being the shittiest major currency around is the possibility that EU nations could default instead of monetizing debt.
I investigated the Norwegian Kroner as a currency and found out their entire national patrimony is invested in the European Stock Market; in Euros. Boy do they have a surprise coming.
I know WilliamBanzai7's pictures are nice, but you should try to read the ZH articles sometime.
Is this Million Euro Bonus?
Go fuck yourself you socialist Eurotrash scum
You sound angry. Fair enough. Here's some facts about the relationship between the USD and Euro.
http://bullandbearmash.com/about/usd/
The USD is used for about 60% of global trade - the Euro about 25%. Together, these two currencies effectively run the planet.
In summary, stop screaming at your spouse - it's unhealthy.
I think the dollar comes in for a lot more punishment around here than the Euro or the Yen.
If there's a more balanced website (one not shadow puppeted by the guv/MSM/ WStr combine ) than do tell.
If and when tapering comes it will be short lived. No way out. Just crush a couple more banks and fewer hands holding moar of everything. Then we'll really see the next leg up with $150 billion being printed every month. Everything will be even more fixeded. Wining!!
Every country in the world is officially recovered according to their governments. It is like the doctor telling you the virus is gone but the symptoms will take time to subside. If symptoms do not subside, call him and you will get more of the same medicine.
Yes, but EU and US Macros are both "Off Their Lows".
So we got that going for us, which is nice.
WHERE’S THERE A CRASH? WORLD ECONOMY COLLAPSING!!! – HEADLINES SEPT-OCT, 3 2013
http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=247239.msg1443921#msg14439...
WORLD WIDE UNEMPLOYMENT
- Merck cuts another 8,500 jobs
- Siemens to cut 15,000 jobs
- German jobless rate unexpectedly higher
- Italy: Youth Unemployment Above 40%!
- Belgian unemployment increased again in August – 9%
- Wells Fargo Cutting 1,800 More Jobs in Mortgage Business
EUROPE
- European Car Sales In 2013 Drop To “Record”, 23-Year Low
- Europe To Change “Deficit Calculation” To Make Economy Appear Stronger
- Euro-Zone Factory Growth Slows
- ECB Says Private Sector Loans Fell for a 16th Month
- German retail sales disappoint in August
- Goldman Slams Deutsche Bank Next, Expects “Severe Revenue/Profit Pressure”
- German Power Prices Surge to Near Seven-Month High on Fuel Costs
- Dutch Car Sales Fall 30% YoY
- Dutch Forced Home Sales Rose 34%!
- Dutch Existing Home Prices Declined 4.4% In August YoY
- Belgium: Never before So Many Companies Went Bust In One Month
- Swedish GDP Shrank 0.2% – More Than First Estimated In Last Quarter
- Croatia Credit Rating Cut to Junk by Fitch on Budget Deficit
- French industrial output drops unexpectedly
- Spain’s jobless claims rise in September
- Spain’s Retail Sales Fall 4.2%, 38 Consecutive Negative Months
- Spanish Bad Loans Surge To New Record High
- Italy Banks Face Capital Risk Amid Low Profit, IMF Says
- Italy’s economy contracts more than estimated
- Italian Housing Market Faces Ongoing Collapse
- U.K. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Fall as Food Plunges
exactly, case and point. I live in Europe and those numbers reflect reality. NO recovery whatsoever.
Add 100% + debt to GDP ratio and it is game over.
Belgium home sales and loans are dropping, fast.
The Dollar is doomed due to the US own policy. The same can not be said about the Euro. The ECB and the Euroland governments are trying to save their currency because it represents the wealth of the middle class Europeans. Savings are denominted in Euros as well as pension promises. The methods to save the Euro are quite simple. The governments have to reduce spending so that it does not become necessary to print excessive amounts of Euros. Combine this with investement in strategic future industries such as renewable energy and energy saving technology, biotechnology, et, etc. plus affordable and availble credit for SME's plus a banking union to stop the madness of the banksters from the City and Wall Street, plus good relations with the extended BRICS or the Shanghai group (Brics plus Iran and others) than you have a rough picture where Euroland is heading economically.
Compare this with the US. Their only measures to save the Dollar is to print and print and to try to force the rest of the world with military actions to accept these fresh US Dollars, plus to control or destroy countries with substantial natural resources.
Euroland has clearly the better recipe but its not sure if they manage to escape the US military grip. But one thing is sure, the US policy is a Loose-Loose policy. The whole world is going to be a looser as long as the US has the upper hand. Therefore the US should stop trying to control by all means the commodities and the financial markets of the world so that a new balance of power can emerge. The Dollar is anyhow dead as the worlds currency and this is solely the fault of the US. Its their currency and the US was the dominating power on the planet for the last 50 years and the messed it up badly.
I do understand how the EU laws are passed and initiated. The EU commission initiates them all and sovereign nation states do NOT have a say at all. The EU council has no true power, all the power lies withing that commission. Besides, we have 10 known communists in that commission, one of them has even been exempted from jail sentence in his own country for tax fraud and money laundering - this man is now at the head of writing the tax code laws?
You do not even mention the General Directorate and we are not talking about the USA.
I suggest you read Marta Andreasen's book "Brussels Laid Bare" - you will have a first hand account of what goes on in that union.
The only balance of power you are going to get is from Asia/Russian. The EU is becoming old, outdated and does not build anything, except for Germany. Are you going to ask the Germans to pay more taxes for southern europeans to waste?
Europe as an economic powerhouse has its days numbered, its share of the world's GDP has shrunk a lot and we have less and less manufacturing. The loose-loose policy of the US when compared to the EU is the same if you think of it ~ tax the people into oblivion and give interest rate free money to the banks. The ECB is printing too, don't deny the existence of LTRO's please, that instrument is money printing. Look at the ECBs balance sheet and tell me that is not printing. Come on! 4 trillion euro already? No money printing huh? Not to mention the ESM, which by the way has UNACCOUNTABLE people on it. The ESM dictates how much money must be poured into it and how long it takes for the transfer to occur. Yes, unaccountability of a mechanism that does NOT permit an audit? Are you kidding me? That is the ESM.
I beg to differ on your "I do understand how the EU laws are passed and initiated". the strict procedure is the council outlining a draft from the commission, then approving/rejecting it and then it goes in front of the EU parliament for approval/rejection
look, I'll spell it out: the council is the boss. the commission is the secretary. the EU parliament legitimizes the outcome (or not)
it's a confederational setup. the members are the countries, represented by their ministers (see other comments)
Marta Andreasen? isn't that the Spaniard* that was voted as UKIP Member of the European Parliament (for Southern England), served as UKIP Treasurer and then this February left the UKIP for the Tories?
The same lady that said that UKIP's leader Nigel Farage is "a Stalinist" and "anti-women"? Where he said that she is "out of touch and not knowing what she was talking about"?
Are you sure that she is in any way a reliable source? I'm willing to believe that she did indeed see a lot of dirt, in Brussels, but please note that she seems, judging from her CV, a bit... fickle
well, I hope for her that her book is selling well
-------
(*) funny thing, eh? you can be a Spaniard and be elected by British Citizens to the European Parliament to represent them
Hey, Europe is fixed. From Today's WSJ;
"AMSTERDAM—The Dutch government is embroiled in a bitter dispute over its budget, raising concerns about European policymakers' ability to push through unpopular budget cuts and economic overhauls.
A row over budget cuts last year brought down the government in the Netherlands, the euro zone's fifth-largest economy and one of the bloc's core members. And although this cabinet is expected to survive the impasse, it faces a tough challenge to secure support for another round of austerity when the economy is in recession and consumption is weak."
Finger in the ....