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Jim Rogers Warns US Stock Investors "Be Careful... You're In A Fool's Paradise"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"It is only a matter of time before the US stock market runs into devastating problems due to the Fed QE program", Jim Rogers warned during an interview on CNBC Singapore, adding that the prevalance of similar stimulative pograms around the world merely exacerbates the probability and size of a fall. His simple message to US investors - "Be Careful."

 

On US Equities:

"We may well have had a big, big rally in the U.S. stock market, but it's not based on reality. I would encourage investors to know you're in a fool's paradise, be careful, and when people start singing praises, say, 'I've been to this party before, and I know know it's time to leave.'"

On A US Recession:

"First of all, throughout American history, we've always had slowdowns every four to six years. That means that sometime in the next couple of years - three years, maximum - we are going to have problems again, caused by whatever reason,"

On The Increasing Size Of The Problems:

"For instance, there was 2001 and 2002, and then 2007 and 2009 was much worse.

 

Well, the next time it's going to be worse still, because the level of debt is so, so, so much higher. Every country is increasing its debt at the same time."

On The Limits Of Central Banks:

"This is the first time in recorded history that we have every major central bank in the world printing money, so the world is floating on an artificial sea of liquidity.

 

Well, the artificial sea is going to disappear someday, and when it does, the catastrophe will be even worse. Yes, it's coming,"

 

Source: CNBC

 

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Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:06 | 4020304 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

ZH citing Cnbc as a source.  The world really is backwards.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:09 | 4020324 Pooper Popper
Pooper Popper's picture

AAHHHHHHHHH!

A 50 ft Marsmellow man!!

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:21 | 4020372 Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

"A 50 ft Marsmellow man!?!" 

I'll bet he scares the crap out of the Pillsbury Doughboy. 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:47 | 4020694 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

This is newsworthy? Oh wait, it's on the MSM. I guess that is a shocker.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:01 | 4020952 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

A fool and his paradise are soon rehypothecated.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 21:33 | 4021179 old naughty
old naughty's picture

"Well, the artificial sea is going to disappear someday, and when it does, the catastrophe will be even worse. Yes, it's coming,"

 

So because  you don't see a taper, you don't expect a 'hard landing' (sea sucked out slowly and we land hard on bottom),

instead, you now expect a whirlpool quickening ...

But you say it's going to...When?

And you did not say when we should come back, you did. 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:51 | 4021087 moonshadow
moonshadow's picture

you need to spell it pillsberry doeboy to exist in the same reality as the 'marsmellow' man

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 22:14 | 4021243 Bernankenstein
Bernankenstein's picture

Who you gonna call? DEBTBUSTERS!!!

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:23 | 4020390 Eisenhorn
Eisenhorn's picture

Tell'em about the twinkie.....

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:39 | 4020445 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

I had a very, very, VERY bad mental image of how the twinkie came to be thanks to you!!

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:04 | 4020305 Screwball
Screwball's picture

Source CNBC?  The irony.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:06 | 4020306 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Mr. Rogers does not want to be your neighbor.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:17 | 4021006 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I already have a Mr. Rogers in my neighborhood; he just bought a 455,000$ Maserati; and he has safe deposit boxes stuffed full of silver bullion; one is enough; thanks; he's insufferable.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 21:28 | 4021169 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

I think Mr Rogers lives in Singapore and is making sure his grandchildren learn Mandarin.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:05 | 4020310 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Our problems are getting worse not better.  Jim Rogers is right.  The House of Cards could come down in any number of ways.  

Prepare.  Everyone should own some gold, yet only 1% - 3% of Americans do...

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:10 | 4020329 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Your statistics work in your favor. No point trying to increase competition. 

Hold a percentage of gold depending on the need for personal insurance and sleep like a baby. 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:03 | 4020518 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Is it still just insurance?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:42 | 4021073 Keyser
Keyser's picture

It's about wealth preservation. You don't want paper assets when the fiat goes pop and PMs are a good place to park $$$ to counter inflation and currency devaluation. 

 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:58 | 4021102 Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

I'll keep repeating the mantra:  "Sell paper.  Buy physical.  Sleep well."

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:37 | 4020446 Jani
Jani's picture

Gonna blow soon.

Standing in line at the post office today I heard an elderly women discuss her FB, Apple stocks with a 30 something clerk.

Stawks are gonna seriously tumble --- soon.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:11 | 4020981 chump666
chump666's picture

"In the winter of 1928, Joe Kennedy decided to stop to have his shoes shined before he started his day's work at the office. When the boy finished, he offered Kennedy a stock tip: "Buy Hindenburg." Kennedy soon sold off his stocks, thinking: ”You know it's time to sell when shoeshine boys give you stock tips. This bull market is over."   A timely move considering that the stock market would soon resemble the fate of the airship Hindenburg itself.

Of course there is the age old. "When hookers start giving stock tips" etc etc etc

But these days we have a crowded fund manager market. 

So yes, it will be delicious when this blows.

Just keep a eye on goverments confiscating the crumbs in pension funds and other countries rip assets from each other.

 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 21:12 | 4021121 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

yesterday's shoeshine boy

is today's tweet

 

You know it's time to sell when the twitter boyze  give you stock tips. This bull market is over."

 

e.g. when Carl luxuriates in his 27 room $100m 53rd St. penthouse (atop the Museum tower) and has his butler types 40 characters and in doing so make $1billion

something is very very sick

 

 

 

 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:12 | 4020550 seek
seek's picture

I've covered the bottom of many a lake in gold, and I'm an advocate as is well established.

However, lately I am more and more convinced that for quite some time when this hits gold will be close to worthless, because no one is going to have anything to buy it will. All fiat will be worthless, so 97%+ of Americans won't be in a position to buy anything other than exchanging other assets they have for it -- and they're going to have so little, and need what they already have so much, they won't be parting with any of those assets. So even our beloved phyzz becomes incredibly illiquid.

Increasingly I think having some sort of well concealed, buried or what have you, cache of food and power (solar and a sizable stash of fuels) is probably the better short-term investment. I have to think having a few hundred gallons of gasoline that no one knows about would easily be worth more than any quanitity of gold for at least 2-3 months following the "event."

It's hard not to get despondent when you realize how bad this is going to be. Don't forget the US ended the strategic grain reserve, so there's no real food storage for the entire country now outside what you have on hand and a few mormon facilities.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 19:51 | 4020931 DOT
DOT's picture

Face value sacks of junk silver dime might be a good holding. Easy to exchange for the moderate valued daily expenses.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:15 | 4020990 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

It always amazes me that both 90%Silver Dimes and Quarters are still available from major coin dealers; they are so obviously desirable; it's amazing they aren't already all gone.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:34 | 4021051 BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

Agreed. I can't believe they are still around at these prices.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:18 | 4021013 spine001
spine001's picture

If we get to that situation, and I sincerily hope not, the only sustainable investment you can make now is in productive skills, like farming, and productive assets, like cattle, or land or any other productive asset.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:05 | 4020960 Tinky
Tinky's picture

I agree with your basic premise, i.e. that self-sufficiency is more valuable than any other "asset". However, your concerns, while reasonably considered, are much more difficult to parse out.

The pivotal, related question, to my mind, is how quickly the system will break down, and how far out the markets anticipate such a breakdown. My own view is that it is likely that PMs will appreciate markedly before the final collapse, and that there will, therefore, be a window within which agile holders of PMs will be able to trade them for other valuable hard assets.

Your scenario, which should be considered, rests on the premise that the collapse will catch everyone (and the markets) by surprise, and that the resulting chaos will render even PMs temporarily worthless. I doubt that will happen.

I would also add that there will be a lot of hot money seeking safe haven, and by default gold will look awfully attractive if/when the paper markets collapse.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:25 | 4021027 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

The government already has plans.....MATIAL LAW. How they will handle agricultural production will be interesting. I hope USA will create collective farms and forced labor, but mass hungy stomachs create suicde bombers and mass chaos in any culture. Your happiness index will be highly correlated to your ability to produce something of value for local community and the strength of your local community of family, friends. For women, you will need a strong man, but nature gives them a great asset tu use and will be abused. 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:16 | 4021002 luckylogger
luckylogger's picture

Not sure gasoline would be worth anything, they put so much ethanol in it that it rots in 2 months and then you got to pump it out and burn it in a brush p[ile or something. Maybe deisel would keep?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:12 | 4020560 Living The Dream
Living The Dream's picture

Forget gold.  I'm stocking up on lead.

Then I can get as much gold as I want.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:36 | 4020638 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I want plenty of lead and a Tesla S assault car with flames and fire.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:03 | 4020964 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

You can't eat gold, but you can eat the looters who attempt to steal your gold.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:04 | 4020965 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

guess I'm hungry, double post

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:16 | 4020993 Tegrat
Tegrat's picture

"Forget gold.  I'm stocking up on lead.

Then I can get as much gold as I want."

 

You obviously havent thought about this much because when things get bad anyone with a gun will be looking for looters and shooting on site - you will be traveling to obtain what you think you will get. You will be tired. possibly hungry, unfamiliar with the neighborhooods unlike the armed residences and you will be putting yourself at risk by others with the same idea. Only an idiot would think they can go around looting without being shot by the owners of their targets.

 

 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 21:51 | 4021200 Reckonball
Reckonball's picture

Yes,life will get ugly for Urbanites...first..

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 22:05 | 4021227 TheMeatTrapper
TheMeatTrapper's picture

Forget gold.  I'm stocking up on lead.

Then I can get as much gold as I want.

 

People try that after hurricanes down here. It doesn't really work that well. 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:12 | 4020986 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Gold is very interesting to various power mad control freaks, like central banks and national governments. Wouldn't it be better to own Silver; which will "suffer" the same appreciation "in the event"; but be much easier to deal with and in; without becoming an annoyance to the powers?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:54 | 4021095 hairball48
hairball48's picture

I'm a 1%er? Wow. I feel rich!

 

:)

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 21:09 | 4021127 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

If every single investor put in a stop loss at 2% below current market, then everyone would be saved.  :)

This may get fun!!!

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:06 | 4020312 Pooper Popper
Pooper Popper's picture

Everybody all together-"Were on the Highway to hell

No stop signs, speed limits

"              "

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:07 | 4020318 Sofa King Confused
Sofa King Confused's picture

Blow it up already.......I'm tired of waiting.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:04 | 4020520 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Which is why the Debt Ceiling MUST be RAISED*.  As high as possible and as fast as possible.  If it can't be reversed, it needs to be accelerated.  Why?  To stop the scumbag Elite looting (trading bits of paper/confetti for real assets), by getting to The End ASAP.

Yet most ZHers don't seem to get this, as it goes against their conditioned sense of (fiscal) values.  Their conditioning is short-circuiting their logic, creating a blind spot in an otherwise rational landscape.

* Ironically 0'Bummer is only accelerating D-Day with his desire for moar spending.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:11 | 4020328 fooshorter
fooshorter's picture

CNBC Singapore, Less lying with funnier accents... also singapore sling

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:19 | 4020353 Blazed
Blazed's picture

@fooshorter,

A Raffles original.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:40 | 4020658 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

They run you $22 at Raffles. 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:19 | 4020366 rtalcott
rtalcott's picture

Bernie Lo has a good sense of humor

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35728715

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:11 | 4020331 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

"Been spending most our lives, living in the banksta's paradise."

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:24 | 4020387 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Similar song, "Al Gore Paradise" (Shanklin parody song) is hard to find...  I had to use Bing, Chrome couldn't locate it...

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 21:35 | 4021178 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

http://grooveshark.com/#!/s/Al+Gore+Paradise/4brJOM?src=5

Sorry, the link won't paste but it's on grooveshark.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:49 | 4020711 forwardho
forwardho's picture

+1 for Stevie Wonder reference.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 22:42 | 4021287 Blano
Blano's picture

For some reason that made me think of Weird Al's Amish Paradise.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:12 | 4020340 jrpuffnstuff
jrpuffnstuff's picture

My butt made farts today.  Thank you.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:13 | 4020343 cabtrom
cabtrom's picture

With all due respect mr. Rogers unless you can stop the printing this market will not stop going up or sideways until it reaches it's NEW inflated price.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:35 | 4020431 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

That is the point he is making........and the music WILL stop......you don't know when but it WILL

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:59 | 4020510 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Asian creditors will not put up with any "debt forgiveness" or other Krugman like schema. They want to be paid or they collapse the USD / US economy, and deal with an iron fist with their own internal issues.

Yup PMs will be where it is at... the whole transactional process of physical PMs will get a lot of attention from US Treasury and Fed. I think this is the known "unknown" going forward.

 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 21:14 | 4021135 Keyser
Keyser's picture

The only reason they don't is that they would be cutting their own throats due to their USD reserves and exposure to the US bond market. No, they will slowly liquidate their holdings in USD assets while at the same time decoupling their currency from the USD index. The BRICS are already doing this. As soon as the USD is fully decoupled, then it implodes. Japan has limped along with a zombie economy for 2 decades, so who knows when the USD will tank. We are overdue for a new monetary system anyway. 

 

 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:22 | 4021019 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

It's not a good idea to be overly confident of any one simplistic thesis. Markets really do respond to the passions of the crowd, which can be a passing strange thing. All capital now is "hot" capital and it flies hither and yon on the merest rumor.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:14 | 4020345 yogibear
yogibear's picture

CNBS humors Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and Peter Schiff. CNBS honors people like Hank Paulson, Jon Corzine and Alan Greenspan.

The more crooked/corrupt you are the more they want you on. 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:57 | 4020501 death rattle
death rattle's picture

What about Jesse Ventura?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 22:17 | 4021249 butler401
butler401's picture

Ventura was one of the few I have ever seen that essentially spoke the truth, and guess what? He's gone, ... ran off to Mexico,...

MSM killed all his shows and blocked most of us controversial stuff, ... nope he's a classic example of a 'good man' cuz the MSM got rid of him,

If they (MSM) keeps them around, then you know they're all part of the same dog&pony show,

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 21:15 | 4021140 Keyser
Keyser's picture

I wanted to throw something at the TV today when Paulson was on. What an evil cunt. 

 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 22:16 | 4021245 butler401
butler401's picture

Chomsky calls it 'manufacturing consent', ... have left&right hand puppets to care for the minds of the boombazzled class,

Appears that ZH is really not that much different, here you have the same binary ideas, and pretty much equal amount up-voting, and down-voting for the same warn out binary options,

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 22:44 | 4021289 Serenity Now
Serenity Now's picture

I tried to up-arrow AND down-arrow you for fun, but it only let me do one or the other.  So I chose up.  :)

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:19 | 4020369 Diesel Seven
Diesel Seven's picture

Shouldn't investors always be careful??? Let's not get too bearish here. No one would have guessed 10 years ago that the Fed would be printing money to buy $85b/mth of UST & MBS, all in the name of their "dual mandate". Who's to say that the Fed couldn't just "write-off" some of the $2+ trillion in UST to free-up debt capacity. The BRICs would whine, but Euro and yen gang would be on board. Gold would skyrocket until some mega-sized mystery short orders took out the levered longs. Just sayin . . . the world is nuts.  Either way, I've been more worried than a gerbil near a shaving kit fo a long time . . .

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:45 | 4020467 knukles
knukles's picture

Richard Gere never shaved his gerbils.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:47 | 4020697 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Shaved Gerbils, now there's an idea whose time has... come.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:36 | 4021061 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

First, you shaves the gerbils

Then, you puts the lotion on the gerbils.

Now, it is time to lock and loads the gerbils in yer Nerf gun.

Set it on full auto, and gives Bernanke his happy helping of hungry gerbils up the hooptie. 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:32 | 4020911 Fredo Corleone
Fredo Corleone's picture

Knukles, Gere himself must have junked you.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 22:44 | 4021293 Serenity Now
Serenity Now's picture

Dang, that's pretty worried.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:20 | 4020375 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Stocks and house prices both propped up to Uber-Bubble Heights.

Wait until they crash. It's gonna be Fugly.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:22 | 4020377 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

leave the party for what?   

What is one supposed to migrate their wealth into? 

  1. Magically created cash? 
  2. Static gold subject to seizure? 
  3. Farmland subject to seizure?
  4. Businesses which make tradeable goods?
  5. promises to pay?

What asset is best in a shitstorm collapse? Lead?

IMO the correct answer is #4 Businesses which make tradeable goods (and lead too)

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:26 | 4020401 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Frankly, Smitty, assuming LA is Los Angeles and not Louisiana, you don't need to worry about it because in Los Angeles you have no chance.

As for tradeable goods, that's what food from farmland is.  Tradeable goods are seizable, too, btw.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:50 | 4020482 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  leave the party for what?

You can always move to NZ.    Nice people down there.  

Stick to the south island.  Nobody will bother you because nobody will even know you are there.   

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:37 | 4020650 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Remember NZ relys on China for 90% of It's trade.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 22:33 | 4021268 butler401
butler401's picture

China has a future, the USA has no future,..

Tell us more :)

NZ is pretty much not Australia, ...

Comparing NZ to Austrailia, ... is like comparing Seattle to Dearborn, Michigan, or Gary, Indiana.

NZ would be a very nice place if the weather on the south isl, suits you such, for me I prefer the tropics of the PI,

I might also add not really fond of Maori women ( Samoan ), ... I prefer natives here on the PI's.

Jim Rogers in Sinagpore, obviously he likes to live like a silver-spoon, ... and then you have Marc Faber doing the same 'hiso' life in Chiang-Mai,..

I think heaven is in the jungle of the PI,... to each his own,

Anywhere but USA is good in my book,

China too, but its too cold for me, but I could live there, ... except for the cold.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 22:13 | 4021238 butler401
butler401's picture

Or you can run away to singapore like Jim Rogers, but you got to be rich, in fact NZ will not let you in, unless you have 1/2 M$ cash in your pocket,...

It's not like you have much choice, if your in the USA and broke,... just waiting to die,... or go to prison.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:25 | 4021031 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Very, very successful large industrial companies with a semi-franchise, and governments for customers, who do pay their bills. Such as ABB. A small gold mine in Australia listed as CTO on the ASX; very, very, undervalued; producing gold every month. And Silver Bullion, in foreign vault storage.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 21:08 | 4021120 BigJim
BigJim's picture

How about businesses that make tradeable lead?

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 20:22 | 4036392 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

In this very big world there are definitely places that will not be seized.
It's up to you to figure out where that is & how fast you should get there.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:22 | 4020380 deejo
deejo's picture

Did Anyone else's day royally suck today ? Just in general.. worse than others ?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 19:43 | 4020908 vulcanraven
vulcanraven's picture

My day was sucking until I read the comment:

"My butt made farts today. Thank you."

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 22:46 | 4021294 Blano
Blano's picture

You're still here, unlike the driver of that black Infiniti.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:24 | 4020394 RobCrash
RobCrash's picture

Well DUH!  Glad this advice was free.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:34 | 4020427 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

bottom & BLAST-OFF Oct 11-14 [see my post @17:29 in "stocks slump 9th day"]

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:39 | 4020447 geno-econ
geno-econ's picture

Iam mad as hell and Iam not going to take this anymore!--- unless of coarse Ben keeps printing more money.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:38 | 4020450 blindman
blindman's picture

"keep your head on swivel." that guy in the video
.
Superfake. Hyper-Realism Coming to an Event Near You
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NoL7nKl3q9I
.
mengele lives.
.
"pay no attention to that man behind the curtain." the wizard
.
american Exceptionalism? – Let’s Take a Peek
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2013/10/02/american-exceptionalism-lets-tak...

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:39 | 4020454 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

When this bitch blows up in the next 4 weeks, the world is going to shit itself one giant turd sandwich.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 21:19 | 4021145 Keyser
Keyser's picture

October 17th is going to be an interesting day to say the least. The day the USD implodes if the numpties on the Hill get their way,

 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:41 | 4020456 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Hey Jim,  markets have always been hangouts for pathologically optimistic (mostly) male fools.   

As the prostrate gland fills up they get even more foolish.    Feature not a bug.   It's how humanity has reproduced and "progressed".  

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:06 | 4020530 erkme73
erkme73's picture

What's a prostrate gland?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:07 | 4020542 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  What's a prostrate gland?

The gland that makes you worship nobility and causes you to prostrate yourself in front of them.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:28 | 4021036 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

glad you clarified that.?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:43 | 4020462 10mm
10mm's picture

I am more concerned about Oct 17th than 3 yrs from now.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:28 | 4021037 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Me too.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 21:23 | 4021148 Keyser
Keyser's picture

If what we fear happens on the 17th, I will be heading for the nearest airport with a passport and some gold eagles in my pocket. Just sayin'. 

 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:41 | 4021068 dark_matter
dark_matter's picture

Even so nothing will happen until the EBT cards stop working. That will be Nov 1.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:53 | 4020489 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I thought we were in a Worker's Paradise. 

USSA, USSA, USSA!

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:30 | 4021039 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

My ex-wife still thinks Cuba is a workers' paradise; because they have Communism; which makes everything alright, instead of that awful capitalism.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:01 | 4020516 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

all i hear is blah blah blah

btfd bitchez

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:03 | 4020522 cosmyccowboy
cosmyccowboy's picture

CNBC WEST you get a much differnt perspective listening to our asain friends!!! you even hear the G word (GOLD) mentioned quite a lot!

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:05 | 4020524 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"...artificial sea of liquidity..."

Yup, and it will be Mom and Pop investors left naked and shivering on the sand; besides the ones dragged into the sea and eaten by the receding sharks of Wall Street.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:07 | 4020543 blindman
blindman's picture

fool's paradise?
.
The Complete Midwest 9/11 Truth Conference: Parts 1, 2 and 3
by Jim Fetzer (with Kevin Barrett and Wayne Madsen)
.
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2013/10/03/the-complete-midwest-911-truth-c...
.
" the fish rots from the head " . ancient Chinese wisdom
.
you can smell it right away.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:34 | 4020631 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

blindman +1 for the Chinese proverb.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:32 | 4021046 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

"Black clouds are seen in the West. The City Walls tremble. The Emperor remains in the Palace and can make no decision. The Center Cannot Hold."

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:12 | 4020549 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

It's not if we crash, it's when.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:20 | 4020581 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  It's not if we crash, it's when.

It's not when, it's if I'm alive at the time.

 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:33 | 4020626 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Re: It's not when, it's if I'm alive at the time.

It's not if I'm alive at the time.

It's what life will be like till some fucker tries to punch my ticket.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 18:36 | 4020629 involuntarilybirthed
involuntarilybirthed's picture

Not only the emperor but seems everyone will have no clothes.  That could be ugly.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 19:08 | 4020681 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

Jimbo, it is ugly already by any real measure.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 19:08 | 4020788 Serfs_Up
Serfs_Up's picture

More Like "Banksters Paradise" to me....cue the Coolio mr DJ

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 19:09 | 4020794 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

No Jim, it's a Gangsters Paradise... led by the Don Bernank. Go long and yes, in 2 years, take your profits...

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:35 | 4021056 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

"J.P. Morgan, on why he was not upset by the Stock Market Crash of 1929; "I sold too soon". If there were a graduate school for speculators this would be on the final exam. Always, sell too soon. Always. and Never regret the last 8%, that you "missed"; if that is the case. The probabilities turn against you as the mania wears on.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 19:19 | 4020837 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Must have gotten on the Soros short and lost big in the last run of the FED algos.

As it gets closer to the end you'll see the FED closing their inner circle to only the essential globalist traitors and military industrial complex personal.

Rogers, Buffet and Soros can consider themselves food from here on out..

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 19:34 | 4020885 razorthin
razorthin's picture

I like the sentiment, but his outbursts always seem to coincide with an equity bounce.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 19:47 | 4020918 shankster
shankster's picture

Ahh! sweet fools paradise. <--------

---------> Paradise is in the eye of the beholder.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 19:55 | 4020937 WallowaMountainMan
WallowaMountainMan's picture

"We may well have had a big, big rally...Yes, it's coming,"

 

thank you viagra?

 

:)

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:06 | 4020968 surf0766
surf0766's picture

First Cramer talked the economy down in 2008 to push the crash.. Now it looks lik the admin is doing the same. Cause the crisis, have the fix.. It was all planned

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 21:09 | 4021122 Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

Of course, and the solution of the pending "problem" will be nationalization of all tax advantaged retirement accounts in the next iteration of the economic dialectic...

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 21:51 | 4021198 surf0766
surf0766's picture

WHo cares about retirement accounts. What is the inflation adjusted value of the DOW. I give 2 shits about who looses money in the market. Fools are fools. They laughed on the way up Let them crap in their diapers on the way down.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 22:06 | 4021230 Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

Many of the folks you call fools are decent ordinary people who will once again be screwed by the same criminals who have been on a looting rampage uninterrupted for years now.  But I guess you don't care much about justice either.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 20:18 | 4036373 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

There's no justice for fools warned 100 times who stand in defiance daring the lion to eat their testicles.
http://youtu.be/DWpo74Ba1aA
http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/S-F-Zoo-visitor-saw-2-victims-of-tiger-attack-3233323.php

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 20:24 | 4021024 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Anyone who needs to be reminded of the dangers at this point doesn't deserve the heads up. Like it would do any good anyway. Any really bad collpase is going to benefit those who are already benefitting, and not because they are causing it. They have demonstrated the complete lack of morality required to rip your neighbor's head off to get to his stash. Many of us who have been stacking and stocking have considered this possible eventuality, but I still wonder even with the substantial defenses I have at hand whether I will be willing to use them. Fuck it, they always say the first is the hardest, and I am a quick study....

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 20:21 | 4036385 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

then rig traps. Let it be automated. You won't need to make the call later. It will happen because unauthorized hands went where they were not permitted.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 21:04 | 4021117 mantrid
mantrid's picture

well the guy envisioned local gold plumge due to its 12-year raid and forecasts its longterm credibility. he said China issues won't be so dramatic and they really havent'. so take his words seriously.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 21:08 | 4021124 Ewe235
Ewe235's picture

Cuba may not be a worker's paradise, but it sure is a cigar smoker's paradise.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 21:28 | 4021166 Keyser
Keyser's picture

y los chicas de cubana es muy bonita tambien. 

 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 21:26 | 4021155 edifice
edifice's picture

So, 2-3 years left to continue partying? Sweet!

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 22:06 | 4021226 alfbell
alfbell's picture

 

An interesting viewpoint on gold from Harry Dent and from Martin Armstrong. I don't know who to believe. These guys or the gold bugs.

 

Despite the yellow metal’s unceremonious and painful meltdown since October 2012, gold bugs continue to forecast a price of $5,000 and a collapse of the U.S. dollar to zero.

How could they be so stubborn AND wrong?

Because they’re basing their views on ideology and the last economic war, the fight against inflation in the 1970s.

They’re completely ignoring all the facts, especially the one that the economic war we’re fighting now is about deflation and debt deleveraging (as it was in the 1930s).

So let’s set the record straight. Here are the seven reasons gold will continue to sink like a mafia boss with cement shoes in the river… and why the dollar will continue its resurgence like a rising hot air balloon.

Advertisement

Get this…

Gold is an inflationary hedge. Gold bugs have assumed that the Fed’s unprecedented money printing, Quantitative Easing (QE) and stimulus programs would lead to inflation and, ultimately, hyperinflation.

Mark my words: That’s not going to happen!

Gold collapsed in the second quarter of 2013 when our QE3 ramp up and Japan’s off-the-charts QE saw inflation rates fall from around 2% to as low as 1%.

Leveraged hedge funds have been dumping gold ever since then to meet margin calls.

The first principle to understand here is that the U.S. created more debt than any other country or region in the world during the great boom from 1983 to 2007. Total debt, private and government, grew at 2.54 times GDP for 25 years. Private debt grew even faster at 2.7 times GDP.

Debt is how we create or print money. The Fed’s money-printing programs are just a sideshow we see during emergencies like World War II and the recent great recession.

$3 trillion in quantitative easing is a drop in the ocean when compared to the $42 trillion in private debt and the $17 trillion (and growing) of government debt in the U.S.

Get this…

When we deleverage or write off debt, money is destroyed. That makes the U.S. dollar scarce and, therefore, more valuable.

The truth is that we debased the U.S. dollar in the boom with unprecedented debt creation. Compared to our trading partners, the dollar declined 58% from 1985 into early 2008.

It’s been rising ever since, and it surged 27% in the financial crisis of late 2008 while gold was down 33% and silver was down 50%. Holy crap!

Yes, the gold bugs were wrong. Gold didn’t protect them or you from a deflationary crisis. The U.S. dollar did the protecting.

Get this…

The U.S. dollar is the safe haven play in a deflationary period like this one, not gold or Swiss francs or euros or Canadian dollars.

Get this…

Currencies trade relative to each other, not over an absolute value like stock market earnings or real estate rent and replacement costs. That’s why the dollar could never go to zero… not unless there was a global collapse of the currency system.

Right now we’re the best house in a bad global neighborhood.

But there are other reasons the U.S. dollar will continue to rise in the coming years.

For one, our trade deficit has been declining since the great recession of 2008. We have consistently imported more than we export since the early 1970s. This floods the world with U.S. dollars as we borrow to buy more than we make. That creates liquidity in dollars for world trade.

Get this…
A falling trade deficit and potential trade surpluses from the U.S. energy revolution – thanks fracking – will only cause the U.S. dollar to rise, not fall.

That’s what leading nations do as they build their trade empires, like Great Britain did in the 1800s and early 1900s and the U.S. has done since World War II.

The costs of building such empires are offset by reserve currency status that allows a rising currency to afford such expenditures. It’s a win-win for global trade and markets, until it goes too far and the empire costs too much to sustain. James Dale Davidson first made this argument in The Great Reckoning (1991).

But when we stop building our empire, as we clearly have after so many failed wars, our currency rises as imports slow, exports rise and dollars stop flooding the world. And as I said before, fewer dollars in circulation make for a more valuable currency.

Get this…

We are likely to see currency wars as other countries – like Japan and China – continue to devalue their currencies to stimulate exports in slowing economies, as John Mauldin argues in his forthcoming book, Code Red.

And finally, as Dennis Gartman argues for an increasing U.S. dollar in difficult times: “Who’s your daddy?”

Get this…

The U.S. has 20 larger aircraft carriers versus 12 combined for the rest of the world. To put it more simply, we have 70 acres of flattop space versus just 25 acres for the rest of the world. That means we’re still the Great Britain of this era, even though we are backing off of our global policeman role.

That makes the U.S. dollar the ultimate safe haven.

So don’t buy gold or Swiss francs or past inflationary hedges.

Be in cash. Buy the U.S. dollar.

And if you’re more aggressive, short stocks as they decline in inflationary or deflationary crises.

 

AND MARTIN ARMSTRONG SAYS: Gold is not money. It is a commodity. It is no longer an inflationary hedge. All it is insurance against a monetary collapse. On top of that we don't have to worry about inflation and hyper-inflation is impossible (hyper-inflation only happens with revolutionary governments that don't have large bond markets).  We have to worry about deflation as that is where we are headed. The USD will become stronger and will be the international currency and safe haven as things continue to unravel. The USD will be the last to collapse.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 22:43 | 4021291 khakuda
khakuda's picture

The brightest people in the investment business are as stumped as anyone on this topic.  Ray Dalio is as versed as anyone and staying diversified - some cash, some stocks, some gold, some energy exposure, real estate, etc.  And he trades around the edges.  It is hard to argue with that approach.

We are in a debt deflation which is a natural cleansing process to resolve the fact that people's wages have not kept pace with the cost of living, no matter what the government tells you.  Yes, the crap made in China has gotten very cheap over the past 25 years, but the big expenses that eat your paycheck like healthcare, housing, education and taxes have been rising faster than wages for years.  And I don't want to hear comments saying how low taxes are relative to history.  The tax bill is there in the form of trillions of government debt.  Just because they haven't given you the bill, doesn't mean you don't owe it.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 20:20 | 4036382 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

The fact I didn't consent to it and can escape its reach is what means I don't owe it and won't pay it.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 20:20 | 4036378 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Absolutely wrong.
ALL fiat currencies fail. it matters not which is first or last. All that matters is by the time I need to spend a currency the ones available now won't be legal tender but gold will. Beginning. End. Period.
Absolutely under no circumstances do I need to worry about deflation. Deflation is a massive increase in purchasing power. While it is highly unlikely it would be like winning the lottery and I'd take that win immediately.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 22:19 | 4021252 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

"His simple message to US investors - 'Be Careful.'"

That is easy to say for an "investor" who bailed on his host, in the primetime of its corruption. 

Too late, Mr. Rogers -- you had influence, and you did not give a damn.


Thu, 10/03/2013 - 23:16 | 4021353 arrogantchef
arrogantchef's picture

Can we raid the public pensions? 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 23:16 | 4021354 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Don't harsh my mellow man, fools paradise is all we got left.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 23:16 | 4021356 dragoneyes74
dragoneyes74's picture

Why the Deflationists Will Be Right (And Then Get Destroyed)

Is it going to be deflation, or inflation, or even hyperinflation?  I've heard the arguments.  I've thought about it.  I've made up my mind.  Then I changed it.  And now it's a combination of both, in a certain order, and very much not how a lot of big money is thinking.  I'll tell you why I think Bill Gross and the bond guys COULD be right in the short and medium-term, but will get devasted in the long-term.  And I'll tell you why I think Peter Schiff and Mark Faber will likely be right in the long-term but COULD be wrong about the Fed never stopping QE, and their perma-bullish bias for gold.  

I'll start by addressing what I think are misconceptions, or at least varying definitions of inflation, why we're not getting any, and not going to.  Some of this might be semantics, but I don't mean inflation as an increase in the money supply via credit mechanisms from fractional reserve banking and/or rehypothecated collateral in the shadow banking system.  What I mean by inflation is the real world price increases in goods and services that are caused by the increase in the money supply in circulation.  I've heard some refer to that the velocity of money (or driven by it), but the point is, as we see in the current circumstances, increasing the money supply via QE programs does not lead to inflation in the real world, IF that money stays contained within the banking system and doesn't get loaned out.  The inflation one would expect to happen is not happening in the real world.  All that's being inflated is a series of asset bubbles.  

If you look at the credit boom from the 1980's until today, you will see that it was accompanied by a steadily declining interest rate and culminated first in the 1990's stock market bubble, which was also driven in large part by actual innovation and technological growth, but when it crashed because valuations reached extremes levels that reality was unable to support, the buyers turned to sellers, and the sentiment shifted, unwinding the process.  Following that bust, of course, was George W's "Everyone-gets-a-home-sponsored-by-Fannie-and-Freddie-and-made-possible-by-financial-innovation" boom, which had the built-in mechanism of people who shouldn't have qualified for a loan, eventually not being able to afford the payments, so the whole thing went bust.  

And then came the Bernanke, leaping over tall buildings in a single bound, armed with a theory that's only flawless on a chalkboard, and yet ready to unleash it on the world, physics be damned!  And so the monetary spigots opened.  Since interest rates were already at zero, and the banks weren't lending, the only way, he thought, to get the credit boom expanding again was to Quantitatively Ease it back to life.  Except for one little flaw.  The banks didn't lend out the money, and five years in, they still aren't.  All they did was bid up assets from an ever expanding collateral chain of rehypothecation.  

First, it was the inflation trade as commodities went to all-time highs in 2011 because "inflation is coming! inflation is coming!"  But the boom, like all booms, reached levels reality couldn't support, sentiment shifted, and the unwind began.  Slowly, it dawned on the big money and little money traders alike that the real world is not being affected by inflation, except for the temporary spike in commodities, driven solely by speculation that inflation was coming.  But it didn't.  There was no dramatic increase in consumer demand.  Banks weren't lending money out hand over fist.  There weren't more dollars chasing fewer goods and services.  There was only more dollars chasing the paper derivatives of real commodities, otherwise known as a falsely inflated asset boom.  

When QE3 and QE4 flared up to prevent the deflationary collapse from sucking the economy into a black hole, the inflation trade shifted to stocks.  Partly because the commodity trade went bust, and partly because surely QE3&4 would be the ones to save the world and get the economic machine rolling again!  But the real world numbers didn't reflect any growth.  Jobs numbers have been tepid at best, and under the surface are worsening.  Labor participation is shrinking.  Baby boomers are retiring and spending less.  Earnings are tepid.  GDP calculations had to be revised to maintain the pretense that it's not contracting now that gov't spending is lessening.  Yet stocks keep making all-time highs, and only back off at the threat of tapering, or the remotest possibility of the political gridlock temporarily restraining the debt ceiling.  

Excuses ring out from the halls of ivory towers and mainstream media cheerleaders around the world:  "Recoveries are slow, give it time!" "The fiscal cliff is a drag on the economy!" "Obamacare is restraining employment!" "Insert another excuse here!"  But the real reason is twofold: globalization has stripped our jobs away; and the expansion of debt from the last 30 (and 100) years thru fractional reserve banking has reached its peak and is starting to contract.  Bernanke has been fighting it by allowing a false expantion of gov't debt by artifically repressing the interest rates so they can spend like mad, but he's running out of room.  

He has said himself QE has limits.  If the gov't doesn't keep exponentially increasing its deficts then he will consume too much quality collateral, and threaten the system.  And he knows it.  I've heard the argument that he could start buying muni bonds, or stocks, or foreign bonds, or...the bonds of aliens.  And maybe if he does, the game continues a few extra innings, but there IS a limit.  For one thing, if he tries to lessen the Treasury purchases the bond market will sell off (as we've seen) because the big buyer isn't holding up the floor, and interest rates will go up, sentiment will shift, and just like the built-in mechanism of the housing bubble, one day the interest rate will consume so much of the gov't debt that the falsely inflated GDP due to excessive gov't spending will contract because the budget is being consumed by interest payments.  If the Fed expands QE to other assets and keeps buying the same amount of Treasuries then the US must expand its deficits to provide the bonds, so he doesn't consume the market.  But, regardless, private and gov't debt can not grow forever without a real world growth in the economy to support it, and the moment the debt expansion starts to contract, the deflation will be unstoppable.  

The inflation everyone is worried about has already happened.  Now it's deflating.  When the banking system succumbs to unnaturally expanding the debt faster than real growth thru decades of credit expansion not tethered by real assets there comes a time when it must contract.  $3 Trillion in QE is nothing compared to the $40+ Trillion of private debt and the $16+ Trillion of gov't debt (not to mention the 700+ Trillion of deriviatives).  The Fed will never win that battle no matter how big the QE.  Whether the market forces him to stop, or its voluntary, is yet to be seen.  All the Fed can hope to do is provide the banks with enough liquidity that maybe, just maybe the damage can be mitigated, even a little. 

That's why the deflationists will be right.  But here's why they will get devasted.  You would think, okay, deflation and slow growth will reign supreme, so buy bonds, even at 1%.  Cash is king!  Bonds rule!  Deflation!  Right?  If there was no such thing as the Fed, I would agree.  But there is, so after all the QE programs reach their limits and fail, and deflation constricts itself around the world like a boa, the only option left will be to devalue the currency overnight.  Basically, what Bernanke is trying to do, but all at once.  I don't know by how much, but it's the only way to wipe out a massive amount of debt and free the economy from the shakles of a deflationary depression (without waiting for decades to naturally grow your way out while people starve on the streets).  If you reset the value of everything and wipe out debt, everyone holding US dollar-denominated assets takes the loss.  So, assuming this is how it plays out, the Trillion dollar question becomes: what will they devalue the dollar against?  

If the central banks return to a gold backed system, even partially, then gold will jump thru a wormhole and take a quantum leap up in value.  But that's not exactly a guarantee.  Mike Maloney has very interesting studies detailing the past cycles of gold, followed by fiat, and then back to gold, but the difference this time is there's never been such a powerful institution running the system like the US gov't.  Money hasn't been chosen by the market for centuries.  The value of gold is only worth what someone is willing to pay you for it.  As long as the gov't can put you in jail for not paying taxes in the monetary form of their choice, they have the power to choose what has value in their society.  And they've been choosing fiat currencies that can be manipulated.  Why would they stop now?  If they choose to make gold illegal again, who is going to stop them?  

You can argue that the international community could reject a new US fiat currency, or a new G20 fiat currency, or whatever form it takes, and instead demand international settlements be paid in gold, and since China currently has the world's production base, maybe that's how the market will end up choosing gold.  However, I don't think it's a slam dunk that China/Russia...have the power to pull that off.  So there is no guarantee and no one way to know for sure.  So the choice in how to protect yourself is similar to any investment or trade you make.  If you choose to go all-in and you end up wrong, you're screwed.  If you end up right, you'll have a smile on your face every night you fall asleep for the rest of your life.  So I always reach the same conclusion: I won't be fighting history by not owning any, but I won't be going all-in either.  

In the meantime, I wouldn't rule out another dramatic move lower in gold like in 2008 when the collpase occurs, but I also don't rule out the recent lows as the bottom forever.  I don't know.  I would suspect gold is likely to touch the downtrend line that currently runs from $1920 thru $1800 thru the $1620-ish area, but before that happens, it may run the stops beneath the June lows first.  Hard to say.  For physical metal holders, short-term moves don't matter, but no matter how you justify it, there's an opportunity cost to being tied up in gold and missing out on other opportunities while it corrects, or never takes that quantum leap you hoped it would. 

As for bonds, it's all about timing.  Could there be value in collecting whatever interest you can for a couple years as the whole credit boom unwinds and there's a flight to dollars and possibly bonds?  Sure.  This process could take years.  But you better be aware of the possibility that one day the Fed may have no arrow left in its quiver but to devalue the currency, and therefore your holdings, in half overnight.  I believe debt is doomed in all forms.  Play chicken all you want, but there's no way around the fact that debt needs to be wiped out for any sustainable growth to occur again.  Bonds might find short-term rallies, and they might hang around and catch a bid from Japan falling apart first, but in the long-term there's only one place for bonds to go.    

In the end, deflation will beat QE; but devaluation will beat deflation.  Navigating the position size and timing is always the challenge.  And that's all I have to say about that. 

Fri, 10/04/2013 - 01:05 | 4021553 Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

You've obviously given this a lot of thought dragoneyes and touch on many key points.  So have I and I have a strong tendency to want to simplify things if possible.

1)  When/if the fed stops QE the US economy tanks and many notional $ worth of derivatives willblow up.  So it will not happen easily if at all that QE stops.  If anything the higher probability path is a QE increase in near to mid term.

2)  The fed is engaging in a protracted see-saw campaign of propaganda communication(green shoots - taper - no taper repeat) to balance on the edge of this reality.  Their objective is to keep the current financial system from blowing up while keeping inflation as low as possible as measured in the cooked official stats at the lowest possible cost in QE$.

3)  There is some limit to how much the US Government can add to debt and outyear obligation levels.  It will arrive at a point before interest expense on debt = govt income.

4)  The rest of the world led by China and Russia are engaging in economic conflict with the US including efforts to modify US$ reserve currency status.  At some point a further faster dumping of US$ securities by holders outside the US is likely regardless of how many aircraft carriers the US possesses.

5)  There has been significant real inflation in essential to life goods in the past 5 years.

6)  There is significant and escalating risk of very deadly social unrest in many places as the above conditions morph into transitions in the global economy, currency and financial systems.  A need to be mobile and not have all assets in one basket is important.

7)  Real metal supply backing paper contracts is on the decline.  There will at some point likely be a decoupling between real and paper metals markets/pricing.

Probably missed a couple of key points but when you add up all of these factors in light of the event tree you've outlined precious metals held in diverse locations represent by far the best defense against both the certainties and uncertainties (mainly sequence and timing of events) ahead of us.   The metals are being actively talked/pushed down by a number of actors for a number of reasons now but that should not take our eyes off of the realities outlined above.

 

Fri, 10/04/2013 - 03:45 | 4021678 Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

So oil and energy don't matter, it's just money and what the US Fed does?

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 19:59 | 4036301 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Bit of a problem with your nice story.

Problem #1: some people can be forced to take the debt even knowing in advance they don't want it

Problem #2: that money isn't being destroyed (deflation) that's out there & someone will take it. They asked for it (printing, loans) for a reason & it's not to show off a big number in an account. It isn't firewalled. It's preferentially held in a holding area & not forever.

It's very simple: those who can raid the stockpiles will do so & those who can't stop themselves from being robbed and "given" the debt WILL be robbed & given the debt.

Hnece the need to get somewhere safe, to have the real tangibles of value (ammo, food, vehicles, silver, gold, seeds, fuel, etc.).

As for claiming there is no visible inflation in prices I argue the opposite: looking at the cost of shelter, energy & food the inflation is very visible in the places it matters most.

Fri, 10/04/2013 - 17:38 | 4023897 BlueCheeseBandit
BlueCheeseBandit's picture

Not me, I'm in an Amish paradise.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 19:39 | 4036224 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

That reminds me of a version of a song I heard once...

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