Someone Is Getting Nervous-er

Tyler Durden's picture

It would appear that Warren Buffett's reassurance this morning that crossing the debt ceiling won't be so bad (trumpeted by any and all equity pitch men since) is being entirely ignored by the bond market. 1-month Treasury bill yields are soaring this morning - up 5bps at 12.5bps now (having touched 16bps - the highest yield in almost 3 years and notably higher than during the 2011 debt ceiling debacle). 1Y USA CDS are also up 3bps at 38.5bps this morning - notably inverted still. Of course, equity markets are surging back to open green for retail investors ignoring Obama's warning last night and Lew's "default has potential to be catastrophic" note this morning. In the meantime, the 1M1Y flattener trade we suggested goes from strength to strength as an indicator of market stress.

 

Does this look like complacency? This is the biggest rise in USA CDS since 2009


The 1month bill yield (red) is spiking once again... indicating a growing fear of a missed payment...

 

and USA CDS continue to rise...

 

Chart: Bloomberg

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bigdumbnugly's picture

becky bites buffet's bubbles in the bathtub.

 

say three times quickly...

ZippyBananaPants's picture

Becky licks Warrens salty nut sac

SafelyGraze's picture

under our secret "continuity of treasury" interpretation, the whole crossing-the-debt-ceiling thing is pretty much irrelevant

the deficit is just spending money you don't have

crossing the ceiling is just spending deficit you don't have

but shhhhh  .. don't tell anybody this or you might get a little visit. 

hahaha just kidding!

hugs,
jackloo

 

nope-1004's picture

Buffet said: "If everyone went to withdrawal their money, banks would have a problem.  Therefore, banks need the confidence of the public."

Ummm.... Warren..... you just admitted that the current financial system, based on "trust", faces systemic failure, should a person choose to claim their property.

Your comment PROVES to me we are fucked, and you are a cheap insider.

 

 

CPL's picture

He's just worried that his billions will be taken as seriously as a Zimbabwe billionaire.  Maybe he should be stacking instead of talking.

LetThemEatRand's picture

I have a sneaking suspicion that Uncle W holds plenty of gold and other real assets, notwithstanding his advice to everyone else to the contrary.  That's what makes these guys so great.  They lie to your face and people still like them!

DOT's picture

You can bet the farm that ole boy has got "insurance" so he won't be Cyprussed.

Meat Hammer's picture

Warren has connections that would make him a Cyprus-er not Cyprus-ee.

Vegamma's picture

Methinks the graphics department is colorblind or doesn't know how to label the 1Y and 5Y CDS chart.

CPL's picture

Maybe on paper, but I get the feeling with all that shuffling around he might have spread himself a little thin, hence the reason for his steady message of panic. "Don't pull the plug!!  I'm trying to get my gold back."  But he, and the rest of them, leased gold to people that stole it from under their nose under the auspcious heading of 'renting the gold' so they could fuck with the PM market for decades.

Buffet probably has less of the physical on hand than the junior stackers on here.  He, like many paper gold bugs, are going to learn the idea of trading IOU's for gold and silver just never works out well.  Never lend your best marbles to a kid on a playground you don't know.  You'll never see them again is the usual outcome.

MachoMan's picture

He doesn't spread himself thin...  he doesn't give a shit about the money, he only cares about being relevant politically and the power it creates.  He is only so important as his jawboning can effectuate change...  and he, along with the network, is becoming less relevant daily.

unununium's picture

Never lend your best marbles to a kid on a playground you don't know.  You'll never see them again is the usual outcome.

Lol and style points for the fluid lack of punctuation.  If you had a blog I would read it before ZH.

 

CPL's picture

I had one once; but the fame, fortune and abundance of time forced me to reconsider that path. 

Everyday after posting on market conditions and possible trades, I'd open the door and turn beautiful rich women away while heading out for a walk.  The mailbox was just stuffed with money, I had no where to put it except next to all that time I'd saved running a blog.

...of course that is a complete lie.  No idea how the Tyler's do it, but good on them.

ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

Rickards had a good rant on this after Buffet bought Burlingon Northern and the press was squealing, "Buffet likes railroad stocks, which railroad stocks should you buy"?

 

Of course Buffet didnt buy a railroad stock, he bought a railroad.  He bought land, machines, rights of way, mineral rights and the ability to move large items and troops.  

 

I agree that eventually we will find out he had gold bullion too in one way or another.

MachoMan's picture

Exactly.  Saw that and couldn't believe he's that dumb...

If a system, in reality, is perfectly solvent and functioning, then perception will have little impact on its ability to remain solvent.  If a system, in reality, is insolvent, then a change in perception can only bring to light the underlying insolvency of the system.  In short, perception (in this scenario) can only shed light on an unstable and insolvent system, not be the cause of its instability nor insolvency.  The system would topple regardless of whether everyone wills it to be a going concern.

ATM's picture

And now most financial assets face the same issue.

If people run to the exit on floating rtate bonds - Poof!

Stocks - Poof! 

Housing - Poof!

Cash - Poof!!!

Nothing but the truth.'s picture

For all his wisdom and sucesses , Buffet is not always right. He is clearly an insider , which suggests that he is on the side of QE infinity and ever rising equity prices. His outright dislike of PM's also tells me he has not considered the real likelihood of collapsing fiat currencies.

Proofreder's picture

Moar simply stated:

 

The U$A has a Credit Card - The DEFICIT Card.

Crossing the Ceiling is exceeding the limit on the Card.

Who will be the first to become un-paid, and then un-banked

and then bankrupt ???  Not a TBTF ?

Tell me it's not true, Uncle Ben.

Jamie ?

Crash Overide's picture

The whole damn government and system is irrelevant. It's always the "next" fear crisis...

DaddyO's picture

So Zippy, how would you know anything about the mineral content of anyones nut sack...just wondering?

WB is no different than any other mega-rich fund manager/investor, always playing his/her book!

DaddyO

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

healthcare call line: 1800 fuckyo...incredible but true:::

Need health insurance? The Obama administration has you covered. Simply dial 1-800-FUCKYO to reach the next available health-care provider.

Far from being a mistype, that’s the official number that Health and Human Services wants Americans to dial when seeking health care. Obamacare’s national call center really did list its number as 1-800-318-2596, hel

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2013/10/03/need-health-care-coverage-just-dial-1-800-fuckyo-to-reach-obamacares-national-hotline/#ixzz2gfjLZ5gD

olto's picture

ZippyBananaPants:

Congratulations on such original work!

What a great poem for the men's toilet of the Greyhound Bus Terminal in LA!!!

Keep up the beautiful writing.

The Juggernaut's picture

This is out of control!  The banksters are going to decrease their profits as the yields spike! Sarc ...Crash that shit.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Unless you intend to put that modern musket to work, it remains a "debt is money" system and the banksters will take what they like from you and yours in exchange for more paper promises.

The Juggernaut's picture

Its already working.  Physical dilvery of clips, gold, silver... and beans

BandGap's picture

Done, now I have to wipe up the slobber.

This is all so odd, now we are being prepared for this scenario? More toes in the water. Where are the rating agencies again? Even if a CR passes so much shittiness has been exposed how can that be reassuring to anyone?

BlueStreet's picture

VIX above the 20 month. Looks like it is set to blast off. 

Whatta's picture

It done did blasted off...BOOM...18...18.10...18.20...18.30...18.40 and climbing

Jason T's picture

we can borrow forever and never have to worry about paying anything back.. that's just the way it is and has been since post WWII.  

JP McManus's picture

Sadly, a payment will not be missed.

Cheyenne's picture

Happy 5-year TARP anniversary, everybody.

This one's for you, Jamie Dimon, you bitch. You should be in prison for lying to the Senate last year saying JP Morgan didn't need a bailout. Presenting Bankster Baseball...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhcFYJ68A7M (artwork courtesy of WilliamBanzai7)

Watch as Sheriff Frank Justice (Henry Fonda) kicks the shit out of Morton (J.P. Morgan) for bribing corrupt senators. Based on Sergio Leone's classic Once Upon a Time in the West.

Lloyd and Eric and Lanny are next… (see 14:40 mark for a preview of Lone Timberwolf & Cub based on the classic Samurai film series Lone Wolf & Cub).

Manipuflation's picture

Wow!  Great video!  Thanks for posting.

SheepDog-One's picture

Unless mushroom clouds are over multiple U.S. cities and Wash DC...the Rothschilds won't miss a payment, probably not even then. Shitshow chugs along same as it ever was.

john39's picture

probably true, except of course if now we have reached the time when the central bankers pull the plug on and let chaos loose...  all of course to justify some massive shift in how they manage the sheep.

TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

Once you realize

 

that TPTB want to cull the herd,

 

then you get even nervous-er.

Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Speaking of nervous apparently you can build your own rent a mob to protest WWII veterans for only $15 a head.

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2013/10/02/exclusive-video-mcdonalds-employee-...

Yesterday I reported from the National World War Two Memorial on several members of Congress crashing the barricades set up by the National Park Service that were keeping out several hundred Honor Flight veterans — many of whom were WW2 veterans — from visiting their own memorial. The Park Service claimed that the memorial and the entire National Mall area had to be closed because of the government shutdown.

The same scene was reenacted again today as two Honor Flights from Missouri and Chicago arrived in prearranged visits. These Honor Flights were met by hundreds of ordinary citizens and about a dozen members of Congress, who once again crashed the barricades to let the veterans into the WW2 Memorial.

After about an hour, about 20 protesters arrived on the scene chanting “Boehner, get us back to work” and claiming they were federal employees furloughed because of the shutdown.

In the video below these protesters were marching towards the press gaggle and I was asking them to show their federal IDs to prove they were in fact federal workers. No one wore their federal ID and none would provide it to prove their claim.

Then, remarkably, a guy carrying a sign passed by wearing a McDonald’s employee shirt, which I noted. I then began asking them how much they had been paid to protest, at which point the guy wearing the McDonald’s shirt came back and admitted he had been paid $15.

About a minute later a protest organizer ran up to me telling me that the man in question is a contractor working at the McDonald’s in a Smithsonian Museum — a claim she made no effort to prove. The same story was told to Jake Tapper at CNN who was on the scene and made the same inquiry.

And yet that doesn’t explain why he was paid $15 to attend a protest targeting our nation’s honored military veterans.

UPDATE: Huffington Post reporter Arthur Delaney states that the protest was organized by a group called “Good Jobs Nation,” not SEIU as I previously reported, and that, remarkably, the protesters weren’t even federal employees at all but individuals who WORK in federal buildings affected by the shutdown.

Delaney and his HuffPo colleague Ryan J. Reilly have attacked me on Twitter, speculating on what the McDonald’s employee, Luis Chiliquinga, really thought, and chastising me for my editorial standards in reporting on what I recorded. The video speaks for itself.

UPDATE2: So who is “Good Jobs Nation”? Jonathan Adler points me to this Washington Post article that explains:

The group formed about six months ago as a coalition of like-minded labor groups. Its funding comes largely from unions, including the Service Employees International Union, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, the United Farm Workers and the United Food and Commercial Workers, according to organizers.

So they were, in fact, a SEIU rent-a-mob

WAPO adds this:

The group held its first demonstration in May, when service workers at federal buildings walked off the job to protest their wages.

So they voluntarily walk off the job to protest, then complain when Congress gives them extra free time to get some extra scratch from the SEIU and Teamsters to protest.

ConMom has more on “Good Jobs Nation”.

RiverDrifter's picture

Sounded like the McDonald's guy said he was getting paid $15/HOUR...not $15 total.  So if he's making a little over minimum wage at McDonald's and gets offered probably double that to join a fake protest, that's a good economic decision on his part.  Question is, who paid him $15/hour to wave a sign and make this "shutdown" conspicuous and petty as possible?  I would bet it wasn't McDonald's.

Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

It is principle here. If you are willing to whore yourself for $15 an hour or total to protest veterans in wheelchairs you should fuck off and die. These people are not the problems here or affecting $15 dollar an hour McDonald's contractors, government shutdown or their paychecks in any way. Not everything has a price attached valued in currency but morally corrupted whores who have been re-educated wouldn't understand that point. You can easily make that money difference up in a more honest way since it isn't a large sum we are talking about. He is a cheap whore simple as that. If you are going to be a whore don't be a cheap one.

As Zappa used to sing tiny is as tiny does.

FeralSerf's picture

The only jobs available for the ones on the bottom are cheap whores. It's not that easy to get "elected" to Congress.

This is not unlike societal collapses in the past where the streets are full of cheap whores.

RiverDrifter's picture

Right, I get that and agree...my point is since it's obvious McDonald's didn't pay all those people $15/hour to act as protest whores, who did?  Follow that money & see who is paying for the propaganda to make this 'shutdown' appear worse than it is by manufacturing controversy.  I'm interested to see how morally corrupt the outfit who funds these types of things are and, more importantly, who they are.

FeralSerf's picture

It's usually not that easy to follow the money all the way to the source, but I agree that it's interesting to see who is paying for this propaganda and who is benefiting from it. It wouldn't surprise me to find out that we were paying for it.

Tabarnaque's picture

This country truly is becoming a banana republic. The United Banana Republic States of America! $15 that's freaking cheap too. Reinforces the idea that the BLS numbers are totally fudged and that the situation really is becoming desperate for too many out there. 

Catullus's picture

It's like gurgling sound in your stomach before you have a complete blowout.

They really need Timmy Geithner back to bark at people and smugly call them assholes.

Glad this happened after quarter close. God knows what would have happened to bank bonuses

Stoploss's picture

Bond shorts, er retail, are in position for the kill...