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Someone Is Getting Nervous-er

Tyler Durden's picture


It would appear that Warren Buffett's reassurance this morning that crossing the debt ceiling won't be so bad (trumpeted by any and all equity pitch men since) is being entirely ignored by the bond market. 1-month Treasury bill yields are soaring this morning - up 5bps at 12.5bps now (having touched 16bps - the highest yield in almost 3 years and notably higher than during the 2011 debt ceiling debacle). 1Y USA CDS are also up 3bps at 38.5bps this morning - notably inverted still. Of course, equity markets are surging back to open green for retail investors ignoring Obama's warning last night and Lew's "default has potential to be catastrophic" note this morning. In the meantime, the 1M1Y flattener trade we suggested goes from strength to strength as an indicator of market stress.


Does this look like complacency? This is the biggest rise in USA CDS since 2009

The 1month bill yield (red) is spiking once again... indicating a growing fear of a missed payment...


and USA CDS continue to rise...


Chart: Bloomberg


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Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:33 | Link to Comment bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

becky bites buffet's bubbles in the bathtub.


say three times quickly...

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:38 | Link to Comment ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Becky licks Warrens salty nut sac

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:48 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

under our secret "continuity of treasury" interpretation, the whole crossing-the-debt-ceiling thing is pretty much irrelevant

the deficit is just spending money you don't have

crossing the ceiling is just spending deficit you don't have

but shhhhh  .. don't tell anybody this or you might get a little visit. 

hahaha just kidding!



Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:02 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Buffet said: "If everyone went to withdrawal their money, banks would have a problem.  Therefore, banks need the confidence of the public."

Ummm.... Warren..... you just admitted that the current financial system, based on "trust", faces systemic failure, should a person choose to claim their property.

Your comment PROVES to me we are fucked, and you are a cheap insider.



Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:04 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

He's just worried that his billions will be taken as seriously as a Zimbabwe billionaire.  Maybe he should be stacking instead of talking.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:10 | Link to Comment LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I have a sneaking suspicion that Uncle W holds plenty of gold and other real assets, notwithstanding his advice to everyone else to the contrary.  That's what makes these guys so great.  They lie to your face and people still like them!

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:16 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

You can bet the farm that ole boy has got "insurance" so he won't be Cyprussed.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:54 | Link to Comment Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Warren has connections that would make him a Cyprus-er not Cyprus-ee.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 13:27 | Link to Comment Vegamma
Vegamma's picture

Methinks the graphics department is colorblind or doesn't know how to label the 1Y and 5Y CDS chart.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:33 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Maybe on paper, but I get the feeling with all that shuffling around he might have spread himself a little thin, hence the reason for his steady message of panic. "Don't pull the plug!!  I'm trying to get my gold back."  But he, and the rest of them, leased gold to people that stole it from under their nose under the auspcious heading of 'renting the gold' so they could fuck with the PM market for decades.

Buffet probably has less of the physical on hand than the junior stackers on here.  He, like many paper gold bugs, are going to learn the idea of trading IOU's for gold and silver just never works out well.  Never lend your best marbles to a kid on a playground you don't know.  You'll never see them again is the usual outcome.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:43 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

He doesn't spread himself thin...  he doesn't give a shit about the money, he only cares about being relevant politically and the power it creates.  He is only so important as his jawboning can effectuate change...  and he, along with the network, is becoming less relevant daily.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:17 | Link to Comment unununium
unununium's picture

Never lend your best marbles to a kid on a playground you don't know.  You'll never see them again is the usual outcome.

Lol and style points for the fluid lack of punctuation.  If you had a blog I would read it before ZH.


Thu, 10/03/2013 - 12:02 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

I had one once; but the fame, fortune and abundance of time forced me to reconsider that path. 

Everyday after posting on market conditions and possible trades, I'd open the door and turn beautiful rich women away while heading out for a walk.  The mailbox was just stuffed with money, I had no where to put it except next to all that time I'd saved running a blog.

...of course that is a complete lie.  No idea how the Tyler's do it, but good on them.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:31 | Link to Comment ForWhomTheTollBuilds
ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

Rickards had a good rant on this after Buffet bought Burlingon Northern and the press was squealing, "Buffet likes railroad stocks, which railroad stocks should you buy"?


Of course Buffet didnt buy a railroad stock, he bought a railroad.  He bought land, machines, rights of way, mineral rights and the ability to move large items and troops.  


I agree that eventually we will find out he had gold bullion too in one way or another.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:44 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Exactly.  Saw that and couldn't believe he's that dumb...

If a system, in reality, is perfectly solvent and functioning, then perception will have little impact on its ability to remain solvent.  If a system, in reality, is insolvent, then a change in perception can only bring to light the underlying insolvency of the system.  In short, perception (in this scenario) can only shed light on an unstable and insolvent system, not be the cause of its instability nor insolvency.  The system would topple regardless of whether everyone wills it to be a going concern.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:03 | Link to Comment ATM
ATM's picture

And now most financial assets face the same issue.

If people run to the exit on floating rtate bonds - Poof!

Stocks - Poof! 

Housing - Poof!

Cash - Poof!!!

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:35 | Link to Comment Nothing but the...
Nothing but the truth.'s picture

For all his wisdom and sucesses , Buffet is not always right. He is clearly an insider , which suggests that he is on the side of QE infinity and ever rising equity prices. His outright dislike of PM's also tells me he has not considered the real likelihood of collapsing fiat currencies.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:15 | Link to Comment Proofreder
Proofreder's picture

Moar simply stated:


The U$A has a Credit Card - The DEFICIT Card.

Crossing the Ceiling is exceeding the limit on the Card.

Who will be the first to become un-paid, and then un-banked

and then bankrupt ???  Not a TBTF ?

Tell me it's not true, Uncle Ben.

Jamie ?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:53 | Link to Comment Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

The whole damn government and system is irrelevant. It's always the "next" fear crisis...

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:09 | Link to Comment DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

So Zippy, how would you know anything about the mineral content of anyones nut sack...just wondering?

WB is no different than any other mega-rich fund manager/investor, always playing his/her book!


Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:14 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

healthcare call line: 1800 fuckyo...incredible but true:::

Need health insurance? The Obama administration has you covered. Simply dial 1-800-FUCKYO to reach the next available health-care provider.

Far from being a mistype, that’s the official number that Health and Human Services wants Americans to dial when seeking health care. Obamacare’s national call center really did list its number as 1-800-318-2596, hel

Read more:

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:22 | Link to Comment olto
olto's picture


Thu, 10/03/2013 - 17:22 | Link to Comment olto
olto's picture


Congratulations on such original work!

What a great poem for the men's toilet of the Greyhound Bus Terminal in LA!!!

Keep up the beautiful writing.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:42 | Link to Comment The Juggernaut
The Juggernaut's picture

This is out of control!  The banksters are going to decrease their profits as the yields spike! Sarc ...Crash that shit.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:43 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Unless you intend to put that modern musket to work, it remains a "debt is money" system and the banksters will take what they like from you and yours in exchange for more paper promises.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:00 | Link to Comment The Juggernaut
The Juggernaut's picture

Its already working.  Physical dilvery of clips, gold, silver... and beans

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:39 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

Done, now I have to wipe up the slobber.

This is all so odd, now we are being prepared for this scenario? More toes in the water. Where are the rating agencies again? Even if a CR passes so much shittiness has been exposed how can that be reassuring to anyone?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:58 | Link to Comment BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

VIX above the 20 month. Looks like it is set to blast off. 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:02 | Link to Comment waterwitch
waterwitch's picture

About f-ing time.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:49 | Link to Comment BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

Amen brother. 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:51 | Link to Comment Whatta
Whatta's picture

It done did blasted off...BOOM...18...18.10...18.20...18.30...18.40 and climbing

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:34 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

we can borrow forever and never have to worry about paying anything back.. that's just the way it is and has been since post WWII.  

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:35 | Link to Comment JP McManus
JP McManus's picture

Sadly, a payment will not be missed.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:35 | Link to Comment RacerX
RacerX's picture


Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:38 | Link to Comment Cheyenne
Cheyenne's picture

Happy 5-year TARP anniversary, everybody.

This one's for you, Jamie Dimon, you bitch. You should be in prison for lying to the Senate last year saying JP Morgan didn't need a bailout. Presenting Bankster Baseball... (artwork courtesy of WilliamBanzai7)

Watch as Sheriff Frank Justice (Henry Fonda) kicks the shit out of Morton (J.P. Morgan) for bribing corrupt senators. Based on Sergio Leone's classic Once Upon a Time in the West.

Lloyd and Eric and Lanny are next… (see 14:40 mark for a preview of Lone Timberwolf & Cub based on the classic Samurai film series Lone Wolf & Cub).

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:27 | Link to Comment Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Wow!  Great video!  Thanks for posting.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 12:29 | Link to Comment WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture


Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:42 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Unless mushroom clouds are over multiple U.S. cities and Wash DC...the Rothschilds won't miss a payment, probably not even then. Shitshow chugs along same as it ever was.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:20 | Link to Comment john39
john39's picture

probably true, except of course if now we have reached the time when the central bankers pull the plug on and let chaos loose...  all of course to justify some massive shift in how they manage the sheep.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:54 | Link to Comment TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

Once you realize


that TPTB want to cull the herd,


then you get even nervous-er.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:48 | Link to Comment dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

 social security taxes eat up $10/hour earings in a hurry

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:38 | Link to Comment Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Speaking of nervous apparently you can build your own rent a mob to protest WWII veterans for only $15 a head.

Yesterday I reported from the National World War Two Memorial on several members of Congress crashing the barricades set up by the National Park Service that were keeping out several hundred Honor Flight veterans — many of whom were WW2 veterans — from visiting their own memorial. The Park Service claimed that the memorial and the entire National Mall area had to be closed because of the government shutdown.

The same scene was reenacted again today as two Honor Flights from Missouri and Chicago arrived in prearranged visits. These Honor Flights were met by hundreds of ordinary citizens and about a dozen members of Congress, who once again crashed the barricades to let the veterans into the WW2 Memorial.

After about an hour, about 20 protesters arrived on the scene chanting “Boehner, get us back to work” and claiming they were federal employees furloughed because of the shutdown.

In the video below these protesters were marching towards the press gaggle and I was asking them to show their federal IDs to prove they were in fact federal workers. No one wore their federal ID and none would provide it to prove their claim.

Then, remarkably, a guy carrying a sign passed by wearing a McDonald’s employee shirt, which I noted. I then began asking them how much they had been paid to protest, at which point the guy wearing the McDonald’s shirt came back and admitted he had been paid $15.

About a minute later a protest organizer ran up to me telling me that the man in question is a contractor working at the McDonald’s in a Smithsonian Museum — a claim she made no effort to prove. The same story was told to Jake Tapper at CNN who was on the scene and made the same inquiry.

And yet that doesn’t explain why he was paid $15 to attend a protest targeting our nation’s honored military veterans.

UPDATE: Huffington Post reporter Arthur Delaney states that the protest was organized by a group called “Good Jobs Nation,” not SEIU as I previously reported, and that, remarkably, the protesters weren’t even federal employees at all but individuals who WORK in federal buildings affected by the shutdown.

Delaney and his HuffPo colleague Ryan J. Reilly have attacked me on Twitter, speculating on what the McDonald’s employee, Luis Chiliquinga, really thought, and chastising me for my editorial standards in reporting on what I recorded. The video speaks for itself.

UPDATE2: So who is “Good Jobs Nation”? Jonathan Adler points me to this Washington Post article that explains:

The group formed about six months ago as a coalition of like-minded labor groups. Its funding comes largely from unions, including the Service Employees International Union, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, the United Farm Workers and the United Food and Commercial Workers, according to organizers.

So they were, in fact, a SEIU rent-a-mob

WAPO adds this:

The group held its first demonstration in May, when service workers at federal buildings walked off the job to protest their wages.

So they voluntarily walk off the job to protest, then complain when Congress gives them extra free time to get some extra scratch from the SEIU and Teamsters to protest.

ConMom has more on “Good Jobs Nation”.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:07 | Link to Comment RiverDrifter
RiverDrifter's picture

Sounded like the McDonald's guy said he was getting paid $15/HOUR...not $15 total.  So if he's making a little over minimum wage at McDonald's and gets offered probably double that to join a fake protest, that's a good economic decision on his part.  Question is, who paid him $15/hour to wave a sign and make this "shutdown" conspicuous and petty as possible?  I would bet it wasn't McDonald's.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

It is principle here. If you are willing to whore yourself for $15 an hour or total to protest veterans in wheelchairs you should fuck off and die. These people are not the problems here or affecting $15 dollar an hour McDonald's contractors, government shutdown or their paychecks in any way. Not everything has a price attached valued in currency but morally corrupted whores who have been re-educated wouldn't understand that point. You can easily make that money difference up in a more honest way since it isn't a large sum we are talking about. He is a cheap whore simple as that. If you are going to be a whore don't be a cheap one.

As Zappa used to sing tiny is as tiny does.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:23 | Link to Comment FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

The only jobs available for the ones on the bottom are cheap whores. It's not that easy to get "elected" to Congress.

This is not unlike societal collapses in the past where the streets are full of cheap whores.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:55 | Link to Comment RiverDrifter
RiverDrifter's picture

Right, I get that and point is since it's obvious McDonald's didn't pay all those people $15/hour to act as protest whores, who did?  Follow that money & see who is paying for the propaganda to make this 'shutdown' appear worse than it is by manufacturing controversy.  I'm interested to see how morally corrupt the outfit who funds these types of things are and, more importantly, who they are.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 12:01 | Link to Comment FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

It's usually not that easy to follow the money all the way to the source, but I agree that it's interesting to see who is paying for this propaganda and who is benefiting from it. It wouldn't surprise me to find out that we were paying for it.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Tabarnaque
Tabarnaque's picture

This country truly is becoming a banana republic. The United Banana Republic States of America! $15 that's freaking cheap too. Reinforces the idea that the BLS numbers are totally fudged and that the situation really is becoming desperate for too many out there. 

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:39 | Link to Comment Catullus
Catullus's picture

It's like gurgling sound in your stomach before you have a complete blowout.

They really need Timmy Geithner back to bark at people and smugly call them assholes.

Glad this happened after quarter close. God knows what would have happened to bank bonuses

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:39 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Bond shorts, er retail, are in position for the kill...

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:09 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

"Does this look like complacency? This is the biggest rise in USA CDS since 2009".......just like they want it, can't front run zero volatility/profitability without some "crisis" trading.


GS et. Al. stand to profit handsomely from the eventual repub surrender/obama knighting.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:39 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Bullish for whoever sells CDS contracts on USTs.

Who is it who does that?  Wait a minute, I think I might know this one....

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:44 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Well, to be fair, it's God's work.

So that's who we have to blame for this mess - God. I knew he was no good.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:23 | Link to Comment Proofreder
Proofreder's picture

There should be a warning symbol for coffee malfunction.

One keyboard, never to be used again.  

Keys were dirty anyway.


Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:41 | Link to Comment Goldbugger
Goldbugger's picture

I think Congress and the Senate are too.


143-year-old law stirs fears during shutdown

The law is the Antideficiency Act, passed by Congress in 1870 (and amended several times), which prohibits the government from incurring any monetary obligation for which the Congress has not appropriated funds.

In shutting down the government, most memos cite the law as the reason. The Government Accountability Office says employees who violate the Antideficiency Act may be subject to disciplinary action, suspension and even "fines, imprisonment, or both."

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:45 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Accountability?  What's that?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:08 | Link to Comment old naughty
old naughty's picture

Accountants have been furloughing since they cancel mark-2-market.

They're not nervous-er.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:11 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

excellent, so when does my business get to use "mark to fantasy" accounting?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:27 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

As soon as you are willing to sell the same production to multiple buyers at your made up price and then skip out on delivery.

 Easy, if you're a fuckin' sociopath.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:52 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

somewhat rhetorical, but you owe me a keyboard just the same...

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:46 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

barbaric laws that forced accountability; how savage

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:46 | Link to Comment Catullus
Catullus's picture

For those interested in history, the above is related to a man named Jay Cooke. He was a supporter of Senator Chase from Ohio in the 1860 election who eventually lost to Lincoln but was made Sec of the Treasury. Chase awarded Cooke a monopoly in debt issuance for the government which he successfully marketed bonds via propaganda all over the country to fund the Union war effort. Cooke was one of the people that caused the panic of 1873.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 09:48 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Old man Buffet is so full of it.  Buffet profited enormously from the financial corruption and lies.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:03 | Link to Comment FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Buffet's such a liar. Can't believe a syllable that emotes from that aged yaw. If he says we're OK, I'm running for the hills.

OT: Obamacare. The Republicans don't have to force the president's hand. The system is self-imploding.

I went to the NY state marketplace just for kicks and it instructs you to create a NY Gov ID, something I'm not going to do - I was gong to use fake name, etc. Anyhow, when I clicked on the link to go to the registration page, here's what I got:


This page contains the following errors: error on line 50 at column 194: XML declaration allowed only at the start of the document Below is a rendering of the page up to the first error.

Uh, duh, guys. They've obviously hired coders from ebay, circa 1999, for this fubar.

Obamacare will never work. Not enough people will sign up even if they can get into the exchanges. Paraphasing the late, great Frank Zappa, "KILL UGLY LEGISLATION."

Anyhow, I already found out that I am eligible for as many as three hardship exemptions. I don't need no stinking healthcare, as I have my own. Grow - and eat - my own vegetables, work in garden helps regular exercise. Smoke and drink heavily (mostly for mental fitness). Fuck often. Made some awesome Veal Parm yesterday with my own tomatoes sauce, own enormous eggplant (all non-GMO) and store bought cheese. Total cost was about $3 (mostly for the cheese) and will generate about 10 healthy servings. Chew on that, Obama, you Bolshevik.


Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:00 | Link to Comment FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

And, here's what's on the NY health care exchange home page:

Due to overwhelming interest in the NY State of Health - including millions of visits during the first few days of site launch - the health exchange is currently having log in issues. We encourage users who are unable to log in to come back to the site later when these issues will be resolved.

Overwhelming interest, my ass. How about "government programming errors?" Shut the fucker down, already.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:04 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

yeah, and the people selling the cds are laughing all the way to the bank. oh snap, wait a tick, that would be a really short trip. so time for just one ha, not even a ha ha bitchez.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Dan The Man
Dan The Man's picture

i think i speak for everyone when i say... "huh?"

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

Turn your helmet around, Dan, you've covered your ears! :)

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:52 | Link to Comment HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

He's saying "ain't no way the US Govco defaults." 

Or he's saying these people are all momo traders and that the price will fall a great deal with the next news that everything is solved.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:31 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i'll say it really slow. the price of credit default swaps is going higher. banks sell cds. therefore they get more money. if the gubbermint defaults ain't nobody getting paid anyway. It's like betting on the end of the world. how are you ever going to collect? you wanna buy some? i'll sell you ten trillion dollars worth. i'm good for it, really.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:06 | Link to Comment Pig Circus
Pig Circus's picture

I' so sick of the lies and the bullshit. Not raising the debt ceiling does not equal default, missing an coupon payment does. We have plenty of Rev's to may payments. Benanke could just print and may the payment. What's the phucking diff?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Proofreder
Proofreder's picture

... Not raising the debt ceiling

does not equal default, missing an coupon payment does.

... missing a payment does.    

Fixed it for you.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:07 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

The major banks are probably selling those CDS's to Hedge Funds for huge profits and laughing all the way to bank knowing QE Infinity will keep this party going for as long as it can. When compared to the major Wall St banks it appears these Hedge Funds are overrated (no access to the Fed & no access to insider information). I think this shutdown will not last much longer. The RINO's are already starting to bitch to the party leadership. In the end, the only supporters will be real conservatives. Everyone else won't risk the political gamble of fixing our nation's finances. It's much easier to keep driving the car off the cliff than to reason with the morons (sheeple, Bernanke, Wall St., etc.) in the backseat complaining that you are slowing down, or even want to turn around.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:07 | Link to Comment Shash
Shash's picture

Shouldn't the 1 year CDS be the red line and the 5 Year the yellow line?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:16 | Link to Comment ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Rand I am not a particular "fan" of Rand Paul or any of the other useless garbage in The House, Senate, or White House, but....

as Paul says (to paraphrase), breaching the debt limit does not have to mean (bond) default.  It means instant balanced budget - well balanced spending anyway.  It means instant end to deficit spending (borrowing), but there is still some if not significant tax recepits and other income coming in.  I believe Paul said - not sure it's true - 250 billion  tax recepits in versus 30 billion in bond interest out.  

So, maybe there won't be money to pay Reps and Senators ot Teh Administration - so freakign what.

What's the deal?





Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:22 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

It will never happen. I believe Obama would rather default than to shrink the size of government.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Default serves the same purpose as everything else he is doing, only faster. As conservatives we are left in the position of holding a gun to OUR head and telling Obama to stop or we'll shoot. It still may be the best and only plan short of doing nothing but waiting for the inevitable.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:29 | Link to Comment radiotom
radiotom's picture

You weren't listening. There is no bond default. Not raising the debt ceiling means you have to balance the budget, thus shrinking the size of government. All the debt ceiling means is they cannot incur any more debt. They still have tax revenue coming in to make minimum debt payments.

The last thing Obama (and nearly everybody in Congress) wants is go over the limit and expose this charade for what it is....bullshit threats, thus requiring a balanced budget.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:43 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Dream all you want, the Progressives will default before cutting entitlements. You think he will cut Social Security, Medicare, and ObamaCare (the two biggest expenditures with ObamaCare waiting in the wings to be numero 1)?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:15 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I see a very big revenue steam for social security in my employee's paycheck dipshit.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:49 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

So the government is taking more in from Social Security than it is doling out to retirees?


What's your point?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 13:28 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Spend within your means and spend it on what you say you will spend it on (pretty fucking simple really).

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

If we were dealing with rational minds addressing real numbers and actual people, ZH would not exist. We are not the radicals or extremists, we are "the incredulous"

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:16 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

So did a bunch of Congressmen and people in the know buy a bunch of USA CDS a couple weeks ago? Is the real question over the shutdown how much those guys want to make?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:21 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

The 3-Month isn't moving, but the 5 year and 1 month is.  It gets more bizarre by the moment.


Here's why the 3 month is important:


But, the 1 month sends a similar message.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

The more strident the adminstration's claims, I think the markets believe that congress will have to capitulate. Like they need a reason to buy.....

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Oh come on, guys-it's so simple. Maybe you need a refresher course!
HEYYy. It's all ball bearings nowadays!

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:58 | Link to Comment j0nx
j0nx's picture

+1 for Gordo Fletch and the buck teeth.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Pasadena Phil
Pasadena Phil's picture

CNBC still hasn't recovered from the shock that the market was up on the first day of the shutdown. Their narrative has gone hysterical. I imagine there were people still clutching to the hope that the Titanic is unsinkable even while treading water among the flotsam.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:30 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

Will the Courts accept petitions to establish "debtor in possesion". I would be a buyer if some nice National Forest acreage was possible.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:32 | Link to Comment NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Time to dial up the rhetoric and start using words like catastrophic, epic and unprecedented...Cancer kids not getting funding and perhaps pictures of them being wheeled out to the front door by hospital staff might help as well.  As for me here in Boston, my commute is a little better and the only "catastrophe" the media can come up locally is that the visitor center in Salem is closed and might impact the hundreds of thousands that flock here for Halloween...really...because the visitor center has a table out front handing out maps.  This is what a little frugalness feels like with it.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:34 | Link to Comment NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Expect the NSA to start setting off bombs to forward the argument that perhaps their staff should be "essential"...

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Proofreder
Proofreder's picture

Don't think NSA has available assets.

National Park Service, on the other hand, ...

Men, Materials and a Mission.

What could go wrong?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:59 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Are you kidding? The data they have for potential sale would be google's wettest dream. Not to mention revenues available for the "voluntary" withholding of certain delicate info.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:40 | Link to Comment kurzdump
kurzdump's picture

Equity algos seem to be confused as bad news shall be bad news now.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:41 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Mark to fantasy accounting. It's what the fed and's member banksters are doing.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 10:55 | Link to Comment AGuy
AGuy's picture

Kinda pointless to sell US treasuries and hold dollars. I don't see an significant spike in PMs or other investments, so I think its probably flowing into either cash, or other US security priced in dollars. If the Gov't defaults it does really matter where you put our money in, if its held in dollar denominated securities because the dollar will tank.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I guess this is one way to create inflation

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:21 | Link to Comment Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

Becky always wears a blue dress when Warren shows up for an interview.  Things that make you go hmmm...

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:38 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Becky Quickie and the CNBS girls will always make sure Warren leaves with a smile. It's why he like to visit often.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:33 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Interest on Savings. That won't be tolerated.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Somewhat off topic, but check out this link:


What a complete effing coward this Texas rep is. He picks on a lowly park ranger and then tucks his tail and scurries away when called out by the bystanders. This is the type of crap filled ass hats we have "representing" us in congress. I called his Washington office to let them know what I thought of his chicken shit cowardly behavior, and you should too:

Washington, DC Office
1424 Longworth HOB
Washington, DC 20515
Phone: (202) 225-4005
Fax: (202) 225-9615
Hours: M-F 9AM-6PM EST

He won't stand up to the real criminals in our midst, but jumps on a park ranger's ass who was placed in a difficult position because of scum bags such as himself. Disgusting.

Note: I re-posted this so more people can see what losers our reps really are. Sorry if you already saw this post elsewhere.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 12:08 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

You are an excellent representative for losers everywhere. Paying people to keep people out of a site that requires no daily funds to operate. I hope YOu have a federal job!

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Huh? Did you even read my post you idiot? I guess oldwood is a very appropriate screen name for one as dense as yourself. On your next birthday ask someone to get you a clue you moron.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 12:55 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

What did I miss? You pouncing on a congressman for admonishing a park ranger who is trying to keep people out of the park? I may be old and I may be dense. Let a sharp razor like yourself tell me how I got it wrong.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 12:09 | Link to Comment RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Warren Buffett has slid so far in my book that he is right next to PeeWee Herman and child molesters in my rankings. 

He could have been a tie to the image of the past of American Businessmen (true or not);  Pointing out the failures of the Banksters we have now.  Instead he is nothing but an enabler and a profiteer.


Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:41 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

The FEDs don't mind letting the markets appear to be free every once and a while.

But they are not. So BTFD.

Also DHS and FEMA are not fully prepared to kill everyone yet.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:58 | Link to Comment Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

"Debt" means nothing, its a farce!

When you "print"  fiat out of thin air, who would you owe it back to?... to thin air?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:53 | Link to Comment shankster
shankster's picture


Thu, 10/03/2013 - 11:55 | Link to Comment Whatta
Whatta's picture

Was this drop the result of what PresiDictator Obama told the banksters yesterday? "Go forth and crash the I won't have to negotiate"?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 12:05 | Link to Comment Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Chinese have to be peeing in their pants...wait until we tell them to take a hike. What are they going to do about it? Stop shipping a flood of T-shirts to Walmart?

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 12:13 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Crisis is the only leverage any of them has.

Thu, 10/03/2013 - 12:18 | Link to Comment Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

What? No Adolph in the Bunker video?

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