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What Will Happen To The US Credit Rating?
With short-term Treasury Bills starting to price in a missed payment possibility and USA CDS surging (though still low), the debt ceiling (and implicit chance of a technical default) is nigh. As we approach yet another debt ceiling showdown (especially in light of the seeming congruence of a CR and debt ceiling debate in an entirely divided Washington), market attention will turn towards a possible US sovereign rating downgrade. In this article, we provide an outline of the likely actions by the three rating agencies (S&P, Moody’s and Fitch).
Via BofAML,
US Credit Rating: Near term risks and outlook
The conclusions are:
In our base case scenario, where the debt ceiling is raised before the “X” date (date beyond which the Treasury cannot honor all its payments) and the government does not default on any of its obligations, Moody’s (Aaa/stable) and S&P (AA+/stable) would likely remain unchanged. Depending on how contentious the negotiations are, there is an increasing probability that Fitch downgrades the rating from AAA to AA as the “X” date is approached.
In the scenario where we move past the “X” date and the Treasury misses a debt payment (maturing or coupon), we expect S&P to quickly move to the “Selective Default” (SD) rating. Moody’s and Fitch are likely to downgrade the rating by one notch, with the possibility that Fitch moves to “Restrictive Default” if the default persists and several bonds are affected.
Inclusion of Treasuries in the BofA Merrill Lynch US Broad Market index will not be affected by a ratings downgrade of any amount. Local currency sovereign debt is explicitly exempt from the rating criteria of single currency indices (except the Euro Broad Market Index). Our view is that other major US bond indices would adopt such an exemption in the unlikely event that multiple rating agencies move their ratings to SD.
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What Will Happen To The US Credit Rating?
Put it in a car in DC and the 'authorities' will shoot it. Problem solved.
Who cares? The lender of last resort will create money with a mouse click, lend it back to the government at interest.
What is this 'credit' of which you speak? Is that the backup plan if the presses run out of ink? Forward!
Egan Jones and S&P have already been "Warned" about having the audacity to downgrade US Credit ratings.....
So they might want to use the excuse of a default to make any downgrade of substantial proportions?
Bingo, because everybody got the message that if you downgrade you get investigated. So by having that day come and pass they can do it with the world economic powers seeing they have no choice. But I think when the day starts to get closer and closer someone will most likely downgrade regardless if it looks like things aren't working out. Friday is going to be a bad day because nobody wants to go long this weekend.
If the US defaults, it must be downgraded. There is no justifiable excuse to hide behind to prevent it. That's the inherent in the response to the definition of default. The credit rating agencies would be such a joke that their names wouldn't be worth even shit going forward if they did not.
They already are a joke. How can any nation that prints money out of thin air and pays it's own debts off with it, still have credit ratings this high.
What will happen is it will get the downgrade it deserves and with all the QE bullshit the US had it coming.
On a long enough timeline every credit rating goes to zero; hedge accordingly.
Let the Default begin!
Way,way overdue.
"How do I get out of this chickenshit outfit ?"
We're on an express elevator to Hell, goin' down!
Somebody wake up Hicks.
Just got referred to The American, thoroughly enjoyed it.
How many drops does this make for you?
"A horse, a horse! My kingdom for a horse!"
These chaps should be able to help D.T.S. out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljPFZrRD3J8
Just put it in one of the DC memorials and then fence it off....problem solved.
Credit ratings mean nothing. The dollar is shit and everyone knows it except the sheep. They will know as soon as the profressive/ communist/socialist/NWO overloards wish them to know.
I'd like to see what Egan-Jones gives the USA for a credit rating.
.
Just another nine months and they'll be permitted to tell us again.
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2013/2013-7.htm
I regret that I have only one up-vote to give to that comment. SHould I have more, I would give more.
Holder: Isn't it time we raid these credit agencies for something?
NSA: We're on it!
Yeah, call the US Forestry Commission. I'm sure they're using illegally harvested teak from Brazil in their desks or something. Just ask Gibson Guitars or Lumber Liquidators how that goes.
Yeah, they just went after Lumber Liquidators as well...cuz, ya know...
"If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it."- You-Know-Who ;-)
Right.
As if those rating agencies aren't the TBTF banks.
But they will do whatever it takes to drain every last penny from the United States of America.
(AP) Obama Administration Announces Draft Of All Bar-Certified Lawyers And Able-Bodied Water Haulers-
Yeah credit rating agencies got sooooo much credibility... lulz.
And if they dare downgrade, the NSA will plant child porn in their computers and their entire board of executives will end up in prison with bubba for cellmate. So they better watch themselves. The scam must continue till total collapse.
Nothing will happen, the Repubichairs will cave.
Print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print print, what the fuck else can they conceive of doing?
<--------- Default
<---------Riots in the streets
Which one comes first?
We must default first to find out whats in it.
The first thing we will discover is that they were using Jethro Bodine math.
Re; Which one comes first?
The debt ceiling is raised so that the NFL season isn't adversely affected. The Red and Blue Team both take credit for saving the NFL season.
The Red and Blue Team dumbasses argue for months about who actually saved the NFL season.
Ben keeps printing. The world keeps printing.
The Braves win the stupendous bowl by 4 wickets.
God that would be fantastic.
.
The stupendous bowl live halftime show, which features Miley Cyrus being double penetrated by a Chihuahua and a Great Dane while Lady Gaga, dressed like Kate Smith, sings God Bless America against a backdrop montage of slow-motion waving flags and slow-motion flying eagles*, succeeds in distracting Americans from bail-in style confiscations of retirement accounts.
*The prefabricated excuse of blaming everything on a kennel malfunction is not needed.
You forgot about the integral chanting of "USA #1! USA #1! USA #1!".
A nation simply can NOT be exceptional without mass chanting at sporting events. It is, after all, part and package of the eternal nature of great nation citizenism, whereby herd behavior is blobbed-up in the most mattering way.
US 'american' citizenism, its victimology urge being sharp, is high on being part of the right gang. It is way, way high on being part of the right gang. In fact, it is totally tripping balls on being part of the right gang.
US 'american' citizenism is built on chanting group membership status at sporting events, a fact corresponding with neolithic stoned age hunter/gatherer smoker/drinker level. Demonstrated the consistently this on distinguished thesis Edward Bernays, the guro of US citizen economediatricians fastidiously.
The difference between generalizing on general ground, generalizing on singular ground, singing on general ground, and singing on singular ground being rooted in a stupendous bowl no evidence ground.
For the rest of Chineses, Japaneses, Saudi Arabarians, Sino-Eurolantic-Indopean-Antarcticans and others I wish good luck to try to beat that. They are going to display imagination...
US 'american' citizenism citizens are at top of parangong list in the sport time chanting eliciting eternal nature of herd behaviorism (since in US 'american' citizenism, the group is all), because US 'american' citizenism citizens have so many of the different sports to chant during, like the baseballs and footballs and hockeys (in the which also US 'american' 'canadian' citizenism citizens taking part in vigorously), unlike the chineses and japaneses and saudi arabarbarians, who only have boring game of soccer to chant during the which. Except for the UK 'american' british citizenism citizens, who have a silly game called grasshopper or praying mantis or something suchlike, but so boring in the efforting even to watch that more sleep is in the making than chanting.
.
Like the mentioned above game of chirping insects sports, many common hobbies with UK 'american' british US citizenism citizens. Walesish and Scotlandish are not targeted because of they are odd balls but because they are rivals in samesuch hobbies enjoyed by other UK 'american' british US citizenism citizens vigourously.
In UK 'american' british US citizenism, it is all the fault of the weak if the weak does not manage to limit the strong. Sources of their knowledge is not known but hey, who cares?
Rumor in glorious communist Middle Kingdom has it that the US 'american' UK scoutlandish citizenism citizens enjoy a dish worthy of roadside squatting of fabled Chinese citizenism past and present, this being called the haggis, in the making of are oatmeal and chopped lungs and liver and pancreas and various other glands of sheep and boiled in stomach of sheep moreover. Could be adding some diced kitten bits and ginger sauce, and would be welcome in any Chinese Citizenism eatery with double up gusto.
Breaking! Here's my US credit rating----------------> D-
I hear there has never been a better time to buy a house. Just lie your ass off and who knows ?
More like
B===============D
So what does the endgame look like?
As the debt ceiling date approaches, market will start to freak out. You can already see a faint hint of freakout coming, as interest rates on 4-week Treasury bills — which may not be repaid on their due date — have moved up above 6-month.
The Repubs need to hang tough here and not concede an inch. We could be looking at a big reset here that will make the 'Leahman's moment' of 2008 look like a Sunday school picnic. This is EXACTLY what this country needs right now. I have been hanging out for this moment for more than five years now - long silver, gold, ammo - and beans.
Its the world against a small minority now, Leather-Face Lagarde was out beating the Moar Debt Drum just today.
Its incredible the hole the elites have dug based on debt based economic theory...and yet, they keep on digging trying to run out the clock. Pretty shallow thinking.
Its as if none of them have children ;-)
Reset the bitch! Long overdue. Starvation and violence will weed out the weak.
Tough to downgrade the creator of the world's reserve currency.
Would be like downgrading god. What do you do for an encore?
Play with yourself live on Ophra?
Good reason to say fuck off as the world reserve currency. There's a few billion people that will be down.
Here's the other point, less frequently known, understood or even acknowledged.
There is no indenture for US debt (Treasuries), but a mere several sentences/paragraphs in the Federal Code.
There is therefore, no formal indenture based summary of any provisions for or cures for a default or cross defaults.
Meaning.
If an Oct 31, say, coupon or maturity payment is missed, is that a default of all issues of just those missed?
Also, lack of payments of other governmental bills if coupons and maturities are paid is Not and Event of Default even in a traditional pubic sector sense.
Ie, there is no formal hierarchy of payments, a waterfall, a priority of payments mechanism in place.
And if a coupon for instance is missed, is there any additional accrual thereupon until paid?
All's silence.
And betcha wonder how a court would decide?
Which would likely be a Federal Court.....
(Don't forget when GM was assimilated by the Borg, the bondholders were indeed told by the Justice Department that their rights may well have been abrogated, but to feel free to sue, remembering that the DoJ has a bazillion lawyers and an infinite budget) And in spite of which, will indeed, get paid
Hah!
swirling finger around in cold morning coffee... must eat some prosciutto & melon
i gave u upvote. since u care bout such things ;)
We'll see what China thinks about it.
I dunno, I guess I look at it differently.
China printed its money to buy a debt, they chose unwisely. And who's door are are they going to knock on, mine...yours? No, it will be Uncle Sam's door, as the citizen would tell them to fuck off, we never sold them anything let alone approved of it...I don't remember anything about that on the ballot in this "democracy".
Its a long swim back to the "Peoples Republic of China" when there is no Rule of Law here ;-)
Nothing will happen if they are afraid of Holder my balls and the corrupt Injustice Department considering what they did to the credit rating agencies after the last downgrade.
Wait a minute. If the bankers wanted something to go down differently than it has, it would have.
At this point I think we are talking about enough coerced assets, that there are few votes devoid of the stain of oaths broken in defense of family and ego.
Edit: I left it unsaid that when I speak of "bankers" I include the mic/intel goon squad, since they are unquestionably in cahoots. I just find the term "bankers" to be pretty demeaning in the current context, so I like to use it to refer to both.
Silly
I don't understand why the gov't needs to default on Treasury interest payments.
For FY 2012, total interest expense (FYOINT in FRED database) was $220 b.
For calendar year 2012, Federal Reserve interest rebates to the Treasury were $88.9 b.
As of Q2, 2013, annualized gov't receipts (FGRECPT in FRED database) were $3,159.9 b.
So net interest payments as a percentage of receipts is only a little more than 4%.
Even allowing for a deterioration in the economy from these somewhat dated figures, there seems to be more than enough tax revenue.
Can't the gov't give priority to interest payments on the debt?
They will compromise after you do what they want.
The Senate and the democrates want to remove the debt ceiling. Do it and go on a spending spree doubling the debt to $34 trillion. Then double it again. Keep doing it until the US crashes and burns.
It's the Fed's Zimbabwe economic plan. We know it works.
It’s not just a divided Washington. It’s a divided country. And the government of the United States, in league with the central bankers, appears to be following the script of William Goldings’ Lord of the Flies, without the happy ending.
EXCLUSIVE: Less than 1% of visitors are signing up for Obamacare on state health exchange websites | MailOnline
By David Martosko, U.s. Political Editor
PUBLISHED: 16:05 EST, 2 October 2013 | UPDATED: 23:33 EST, 2 October 2013
As President Obama's signature health insurance overhaul effort began to enroll new participants on Monday, some states running their own insurance exchanges saw huge levels of website traffic but paltry interest in signing up.
California, the ultimate blue state whose federal lawmakers voted overwhelmingly in support of Obamacare, turned less than 1 per cent of its Web visits into 'Covered California' participants on Tuesday.
'We had over 5.7 million hits to our website as of 3 p.m. yesterday,' Covered California spokeswoman Kelsey Caldwell told MailOnline Wednsday... 7,700 consumers began their application process yesterday. ... 4,143 applications are pending,' she added. 'We received 23,269 calls yesterday to our service center… (see article below)
Connecticut saw a similarly low rate of interest. Democratic Congressman Jim Himes tweeted after 8:30 p.m. Monday that his state's health exchange had 'received 28k visitors, and took 167 applications for health insurance. Day 1.'
That indicates just 0.59 per cent of Connecticut residents who sought information about their state's Obamacare program on Monday decided to become part of it, according to Access Health CT spokeswoman Kathleen Tallarita
New York Department of Health executive director Donna Frescato said in a statement that 'more than 12,000 business owners and individuals from across the state have shopped online for low-cost health insurance plans ... and the site has received nearly 30 million web visits.'
A spokesman didn't respond to a request for clarification about whether those 12,000 people completed applications for health coverage. If they did, and if each 'web visit' corresponded to a New Yorker who saw 8 pages, the state's enrollment rate would be the lowest of all – 0.32 per cent.
The low numbers of new enrollees stand in stark contrast to the robust website traffic statistics, suggesting that day-one anxieties about non-functioning online portals may have been overblown.
Only 14 states have opted to run their own health insurance exchanges. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is handling signup duties for the other 36 states and the District of Columbia.
'Starting today,' President Obama said Tuesday during a White House Rose Garden event, 'you and your friends and your family and your coworkers can get covered, too. Just visit healthcare.gov, and there you can compare insurance plans, side by side, the same way you’d shop for a plane ticket on Kayak or a TV on Amazon.'
But his administration isn't saying how many Americans signed up online so far.
On Wednesday Department of Health and Human Services spokeswoman Joanne Peters said the main Obamacare website had served 4.7 million unique visitors, adding to 190,000 phone calls and 104,000 online chats sessions that administrators had supervised.
'Millions want to get covered,' according to the Obamacare system's main Twitter account on Wednesday afternoon.
'Americans across the country – millions of Americans – are taking advantage of the opportunity to shop for affordable health insurance that they could not attain before now,' White House Press Secretary Jay Carney insisted on Monday.
But without enrollment figures, it's impossible to know whether Obamacare is seeing a flood of new customers or just a trickle.
The White House did not respond to a request for those numbers.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2442115/EXCLUSIVE-Less-1-cent-Web-visitors-signing-Obamacare-state-health-exchange-websites.html#ixzz2ghkMvDJw
Note that according to the Los Angeles Time: “California's health insurance exchange vastly overstated the number of online hits it received Tuesday during the rollout of Obamacare.
“State officials said the Covered California website got 645,000 hits during the first day of enrollment, far fewer than the 5 million it reported Tuesday.
“The state exchange had cited the 5 million figure as a sign of strong consumer interest and a major reason people had so much difficulty using its $313-million online enrollment system.”
http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-california-health-exchange-glitches-20131001,0,7108713.story
While I disagree with the premise of this headline...
100 Unintended Consequences of Obamacare
...it is, in my opinion, the Intended Consequences, there can be no doubt about it now.
Quite a catch, nmewn... like reading 100 potential soap opera scripts by National Review.
…"from major corporations to local mom-and-pop shops, from entire states to tiny school districts, a wide range of companies and institutions have seen Obamacare’s negative impact on their workers, budgets, and production. Here are 100 examples of how Obamacare is falling short of what was promised."
Corporations
IBM, Delta Air Lines, UPS, Caterpillar Inc., SeaWorld
Medical Device Tax
Stryker Corp., Welch Allyn, Smith & Nephew
Hospitals, Nonprofits
Cleveland Clinic (OH), Wake Forest Baptist Medicla Center (North Carolina), Orlando Health (FL), Lousiana State University Hospitals, Delaware Hospice, Lawrence + Memorial Hospital (CT), Clifton Springs Hospital (NY), Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield (NH), Mexican American Opportunity Foundation (CA), Carnegie Museum (PA), Fort Smith Area Agency on Aging (AR), Emory Healthcare (GA), CoverTN (Tennessee)
State and Local Governments
State of Virginia, Township of Middletown (NJ), Brevard County (FL), Township of Berkley (NJ), Chesterfield County (VA), City of Lynchburg (VA), City of Mason (OH), Township of Toms River (NJ), Lee County (IA), City of Faribault (MN), Kansas Turnpike Authority
Education
University of Virginia, Community College of Allegheny Country (PA), St. Petersburg College (FL), Hillsborough Community College (FL), Hamilton Township School District (NJ), Purdue University (IN), Oneida Special School District (TN), Central Michigan University, University of North Alabama, Arizona State University, Ivy Tech Community College (IN), Maricopa Community College (AZ), Granite School District (UT), Alpine School District (UT), Fort Wayne Community Schools (IN), Papillion-La Vista School District (NE), University of Akron (OH), Youngstown State University (OH), Tredyffrin-Easttown School District (PA), Southern Lehigh School District (PA), Zionsville Community Schools (IN), Spartanburg Community College (SC), Finger Lakes Community College (NY), Mount Ephraim School District (NJ), Minocqua-Hazelhurst-Lake Tomahawk School District (WI), Rock Valley College (IL)
Big Labor
Teamsters, UFCW, and UNITE HERE, AFL-CIO
Restaurants and the Food Industry
Cheesecake Factory, Papa John’s Pizza, Buca di Beppo, Fatburger, Wendy’s, Subway restaurants (IL), Subway restaurants (ME), PoFolks restaurant (AL), Joe Bologna’s (KY), Five Guys franchises (NC), Charcoal Broiler (CO), Shan’s restaurant (OR), Russ’ Restaurants (MI), Burger King (Washington, D.C.), Taco Bell (OK), A Virginia Beach restaurant (VA), Jim’s restaurants (TX), The San Antonio restaurant chain, CiCi’s Pizza restaurants (TX)
Grocery Chains
Whole Foods Market, Trader Joe’s, Wegmans, Trig’s Supermarkets (WI), Waldbaum’s (NY), Royal Farms (MD)
Small Local Businesses
Southern Hearth & Patio (TN), Tsunami Surf Shop (NC, SC), Kerns Trucking (NC), AAA Parking (GA), Circle K gas station (GA), Maritz Research (MO)
Premium Rate Increases
California, Colorado, Florida, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Washington, Wisconsin.
There is no ceiling. There is only a floor.
Just ask your friendly neighborhood Fed.
Theater. Scripted.
If the us gets a downgrade, what happens to pension funds and such that have to hold higher rated debt?
If The US is down graded then they will just grade it on a curve.
Its all mental masturbation. Old saying : if I owe you $10,000 that's my problem....if I owe you $10,000,000,000 that's your problem.