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Stocks Shrug Off Shutdown Shenanigans; Ignore Obama's "Sell" Order
The dump into last night's close marked the lows of the last 24 hours as US equities decided that worrying about government shutdowns, near-record negative earnings pre-announcements, disappointing job growth, debt-ceiling dynamics that are increasingly feared in money markets, and a reversal in the key "soft" survey data was not enough to stop them BTFATH (thanks to confused banter from several Fed heads).
Summing up here - equities disconnected from everything else... (SPY Arb left is a model that compares SPY to HYG/VXX/TLT - in other words an ETF-based capital structure model... and CONTEXT right is a 'proxy' for risk-assets across asset-classes compared to S&P futures)...
The Dow ended the week worst (-1.25%) followed by the S&P (getting back near unch this afternoon) as the NASDAQ and Russell were modestly green.
Treasury yields close the week 1-3bps higher (after ramping 8bps low to high today).
The USD ended -0.15% (after rallying 0.5% today on JPY and EUR weakness).
Commodities have been relatively quiet (aside from ubiquitous spikes) the last 2 days with gold worst -2% on the week.
The disconnects were everywhere... but caught up in general by the close...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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Nothing about BTC today?
The Wallstreeters were told... hit stocks, hit bonds (drive yields up) hit gold... make it look like everything is falling apart 'less I gets my way, muthafuckas...
GOOG second week closing below the 20 week. IBM looks ready to break below $180. VIX above both 20 week and month. Don't marry your longs boys because something could be brewing.
Fed's taking the pressure off the politicians to do anything. Another brilliant move by Bernanke.
He really is clueless.
BTFATWTFD!
"Buy all time WTF dip"
With increase volatility, logic and reason is now decouple.
Like it or not there are a lot of reasons for stocks to go up right now in the new "normal":
(1) No one truly believes that the US will default on an interest or principal payment. Whether by the Treasury "finding" money, Executive Order, the Fed stepping in or some other shenanigans the government won't default. I expect a last minute deal to pay that and nothing else.
(2) The Fed has all of the cover it needs now to stay pat through the end of the year. Some are even talking increase
(3) Every good number now will be met with awe at the strength of the economy and every bad number shrugged off as a product of the shutdown. Even Q3 earnings misses will be blamed on the looming shutdown.
It's a clown show, but it is what it is
The fucks of the world have decided that fairy tales really are true.
( 4 ) stawks... there is no other place for the tsunami of central bank fiat to go. Just need to be sure Bernank keeps the 10y under 3....and be sure the next runup is believable.
it is all timing game. when congress decides to raise the ceiling and business (as in increasing the debt) as usual - easy 2 to 3 % day on the dow.
but what day is that?? lloyd and jamie know. we don't. i don't want to get reamed again betting.
with no apparent end to the budge turmoil, and debt-ceiling talk barely begun, why not buy the all-time fucking highs?
party on!!
All hail the Bernank. He has succeeded in creating the riskless society. With all the excitment taken out WTF do we have to live for now?
i guess we've reached a plateau of prosperity and the stock market can only go up from here
It's awesome. I just got confirmation today, after calling up about fifteen suppliers, that thanks to Bernanke sponsored inflation component costs have gone up so much that it will be impossible to make a profit on my companies next order.
Last year it look six units to pay for the display and packaging of our product for one major account. This year it now takes fifteen, out of eighteen in the pack-out just to pay for the packaging and display. Each display hold $162 wholesale, $360 retail. Mr. Publicly traded retailer gets to pull in $200 profit off each box. My company makes $3 off each unit, not counting the required throwaway display, for this particular retailer. So that's $54 for me, $200 for the retailer that does just about nothing to help sell the product.
I just found out that the completed display box is going to cost $48. END RESULT $6 FOR EACH BOX!!!!
Not even worth doing business for that.
And that is a lesson in what Wall Street has done to the economy. It isn't worth doing business unless your business is fraud you can con people into buying shares of.
Has anyone bought the new 3X TWTRQ ETF yet?
Did you know that Pornhub has something like 10x the visitors as Twitter and its advertisements generate billions in real revenue for adult themed merchandise and subscription porn sites?
Why is internet pron not publicly traded? My god you could turn $50 into millions with just what the SEC watches.
Why does that remind me of Richard Gere's gerbils?
Washington is crying wolf, again, but no one is listening or cares. People are finally seeing them as the hemroids they are. Debt ceiling will be raised and a CR passed. All that matters is the Fed, markets and ultimately only the slice of the market that affects you. The rest is something to bla, bla about.
Exactly. Nobody believes or even cares what is said in d.c. anymore. They are irrelevant assclowns.
Mr. Victor Niederhoffer said it best, imo, when he offered....
"For the first time in history we have a plunge encouragement team."
And the "sucking in" of bears continues - relentless.
While SnP will rally - relentless - north.
Sooner than most might think - as possibly the lows are already behind us.
And higher than most might think - 18xx.
the lows came a few days later.
with even more bears on board.
Who is buying Netflix at over 400 PE? Seriously, how much more do these dingbats expect this to go up?
There is no fear in the market - just BTFATH!!
With all this stupidity, you would think that gold/silver would be getting ready for a nice ride....
Race: Agree. Very strange action for many months in the metals. But I think when the idiots open the govt. with more debt, stocks will continue higher, bonds up, and gold and silver dumped, again. But after the booze and drugs wear off, and they realize what they have done......Then I think it will be our turn. But that may be a few weeks down the road.
Sure has been tough on most of us here.
That may just be right. Printing money has to go somewhere and they say inflation leads to a higher stockmarket. I am just not quick enough to do both:
Stockmarket and then hop to the PMs
LOL