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What Does The Market Know That Boehner Doesn't?
The EUR is dumping as EURUSD cracks back to unchanged relative the "shutdown" level from 09/30/13 midnight. Treasury yields are above those levels as are stocks with gold below as it appears (for now) that hope of a weekend deal in DC is priced into markets. Of course, the USD strength could actually be a safe-haven repatriation on fears this goes on longer but when the algos are in charge a rise in AUDJPY is all that is needed to levitate stocks...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Frontrunning a spec weekend deal. Markets knows Boehner will not let the USA default, so there is really no danger. Unless?
This is beginning to make sense therefor it will not last.
The Careless Whisper Lunch-Time News Update & Threadjacking (Ahead Of Drudge)
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It's either a 'real revolution' or a pussyfest. For it to be real the House Republicans have to get rid of Boehner. He has told them that he will 'betray' them, as Warren Buffet, Jamie Dimon, and the US Chamber of Commerce have ordered.
If this is at all serious, Boehner will be cashiered before he can put a clean CR or debt limit bill on the House floor. Once it's there, it's too late. The GOP moderates and Dems will vote it across.
The scenarios once Boehner gets his 'Ides of October' dagger are very entertaining. But if he remains as Speaker, then this whole thing is a pussyfest.
Mr. Market says big yawn. What do the Koch Brothers and the other Grumpy Octogenarian Billionaires (GOBs) say?
I heard Boehner this morning. He was angry. He was excellent. This name calling by Reid and Pelosi and Obama and the Louise Slaughters is giving Republicans a backbone. It’s time to beat these people.
The smart traders are seeing that the Republicans are digging in their heels. As for the Democrats? They look worse, every day.
Once a politican is in front of a camera you can assume he's now an actor. That was all performance and drama for public consumption. The agenda will continue forward as dictated by those behind the scenes.
Of course it was a performance. And it was meant to indicate Boehner is doing what the voters and the other members of the Republican Caucus are telling him to do.
At this point it is not as important as to what Boehner personally feels, where his heart is, and how much he is acting. What I want from the man are his statements and his vote.
And, by the way, some of those people behind the scenes, include me.
Actually Boehner looked horrible and it is the republicans who look worse every day. Wait till obama comes out and says they compromised by reducing budget deal by 80 billion and the republicans added on obama care after a deal had been made. Wait till all the business that are losing money for all kinds of reasons yell and scream this weekend at the republicans. just in tourism non federal business are losing hundreds of millions a day. Wait till the defense contractors who are not getting all the business they should be start screaming louder and louder. Wait till NSA which has a 70% reduction starts targeting Boehner's boozing and the boozing of the other republicans that we heard about and then starts leaking it to the media. The NSA is probably the one they have to fear the worst. It won't be long now. I can tell you that.
Sure am glad I gave up on trying to day trade this noisy nonsense.
For real? This has been the easiest trading week ever. I shorted VIX on Monday expecting a last minute deal. Got saved by Tuesday's anomalous rally. Went short $SPX EOD day Tuesday. Covered that yesterday when Boehner said he wouldn't default. Went long $SPXL before EOD yesterday. Sold that today & went short on the news that the soonest the Dems could force anything is the 14th.
They've been telegraphing everything. Easy as shit.
a bank failure in europe perhaps?
I know I know ... not likely. For now that is.
You don't think Berlusconi will take the place down with him? He could.
We are all in the hands of decadent, psychopathic elites. It all comes down to their taste in risk--gross or refined? Sane or unsane?
That is all that is left.
That's easy. It knows what Lord Rothschild knew - "Give me control of a nation's money supply, and I care not who makes it’s laws".
buy the rumor, sell the....
It knows that in case of no debt ceiling/CR deal, Chairman Ben will not let the equity markets fall. He will announce that now the Fed will be openly purchasing stawks, in lieu of no moar debt being issued.
And the sheeple will cheer all across the land! Ben understands their pain, they will think, though in reality, he is the chief cause of it.
It's safe play at first: If you've been short you cover the position b4 a possible decision during the weekend will hit you hard. And noone really knows for sure how Japan and China will react on whatever news there'll be.
Btw.: Monday could be the day where Stolpers $usdjpy will hit the SL of 98.8
Who does #2 work for ?
How about a courtesy Vote in there.....?
BOTTOMLINE: They can hold gold but they can’t hold the dollar and the 10-Year is creepin up.
Never mind the S&P500 which isn’t a funny QE joke anymore.
Deal or no deal; all cases bode well for the shiny yellow metal thing that has been around for thousands of years. Supress it as long as you want; the longer you keep the price down, the faster the flows to the east; Debt ceiling raised= more debt, more debasement, Debt Ceiling not raised; default, either case this is good for the yellow metal.
The market and the opposition no longer see Boehner as a man with strength as he has caved in too many times the past year. Paraphrasing a line from Gladiator.... die fighting as a man so you will be remembered as Men.