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A Depressed Bank Of America Predicts "Agreement Is Almost Impossible As Long As Obamacare Is On The Table"
Bank of America's latest forecast on the resolution, or lack thereof, of the government shutdown, which now seems virtually certain to last at least one week into Monday night, when the House and Senate return to work, is hardly encouraging. The bank's base case now calls for "either a two-week shutdown or for multiple shutdowns." Additional, BofA has now cut its Q3 GDP forecast from 2.0% to 1.7% and from 2.5% to 2.0% for 4Q. It gets worse: "Much worse outcomes are possible. In our view, agreement is almost impossible as long as the Affordable Care Act is on the table." Finally, and what ties it all together, is that as a result of the lack of "government data", BAC now expects the Fed to delay tapering to their January meeting, or later. Which may well have been the much needed alibi all along to delayed tapering until 2014.
From Bank of America
The shutdown of the government has created a double dose of uncertainty. It comes at a time when the economy may be about to shift from second gear into third gear, triggering the beginning of a Fed exit. The longer the shutdown and the longer the games of brinkmanship, the longer the delay in that growth pick up. At the same time, the shutdown means almost no official data releases. In the face of this uncertainty, the Fed’s motto is: when in doubt, do nothing.
Our base case is now for either a two-week shutdown or for multiple shutdowns. We have cut our forecast for GDP growth from 2.0% to 1.7% for 3Q and from 2.5% to 2.0% for 4Q. We also expect the Fed to delay tapering to their January meeting, or later.
Much worse outcomes are possible. In our view, agreement is almost impossible as long as the Affordable Care Act is on the table. The President is very unlikely to agree to cuts in his proudest legislative achievement. Moreover, in our view, he is in a strong negotiating position vis-à-vis House Republicans. He does not have to run for office again, while they are all up for reelection next fall. Surveys show Americans strongly disapprove of the shutdown and put more blame on Republicans than Democrats. Surveys also show that Americans think it is not worth shutting the government down as a means to end the ACA. On the other hand, most Republicans strongly oppose the ACA and many support shutdowns as a means to an end. Ultimately we expect Republicans to drop the effort to weaken the ACA, but this could take a while.
It is very hard to measure the impact of the shutdown on the economy, although every economist has to come up with numbers. Most of the press reports seem very much on the low side, in our view. The direct impact is easy to calculate. The Clinton-Gingrich shutdown directly reduced GDP by about 0.3% in 4Q 1995 and a two-week shutdown today would have a similar impact. However, we think these narrow estimates are wishful thinking. There will likely be numerous spillover effects and, even if the shutdowns are brief, multiple brinkmanship moments will take a toll on confidence. We hear a lot of talk about buying on dips, but getting the timing right could be very tough.
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It won't be a big deal to default 'a little' anyway. Might actually normalize interest rates despite Benjie's diabolical fulminations.
If the RPC shitcans Boehner before he can put a CR to a moderate-Dem coalition vote, then they were serious.
If not, well, there you go. No biggie. Just getting some contributions.
It would be a pretty big deal imho when they cant afford to pay the interest on those "normalized rates". When people go to ivy league schools, do they actually pay to be conditioned to ignore such basic fundamentals?
The BA CEO just met with Obammy so they must know something we don't ........
that fb play is just getting better and better
full steam ahead, thou ship of state!
so, who are the poor shmucks being furloughed? because to start with about 70% of government was deemed essential, now 50% of the remaining are being returned after only 4 days with retroactive pay ...dont you date caught their pay ... who are being furloughed? the interns?
what a joke ... how much do they contribute to GDP?
"...as a result of the lack of "government data",..."
Uh, the problem is not a lack of "government data".
It's the lack of factual government data that continues to be the problem.
This has nothing to do with any shutdown, partial or otherwise.
The GOP should give in but insist the law 1. be applied as written and passed, or 2. Be applied as written and passed, but be open to amendment by the house and senate with a commitment from Obama to sign anything passed by both houses.
El Hefe has already unilaterally changed it 17 times. He just speaks and the law changes. WTF planet are we on, and who is this piece of shit tyrant?
The piece of shit Obama is just that; a hunk of smelly shit.His fucked up wife too.
Joe Biden is a another whole pile of smelly shit. Valerie Jarrett and the likes of OShitpiles "staff" are a bunch of commie cunts.
100% of his piece of shit followers and "admirers" are people I depise, detest, and are of imbecilic levels of intelligence.
"Finally, and what ties it all together, is that as a result of the lack of "government data", BAC now expects the Fed to delay tapering to their January meeting, or later. Which may well have been the much needed alibi all along to delayed tapering until 2014.".......2015........2016......2017........2018.........2019.........2020........2021......
There....fixed it for ya.
Occupy Obamacare
open as many browser pages as you can to keep it crashed.
healthcare.gov
It would all be a big deal if the government was actually shut down, but these clowns even lie about that. Most of the government is open, and all these non-critical workers are going to get paid time off. My heart bleeds for them.
On top of that we have POTUS out there lambasting the name of a football game; what strong, wise, and vigilant leadership we have in this land of exceptionalism. (sarc off, air sickness bag on).
Native americans are like, "yeah that genocide thing kinda sucked. but what we are really pissed off about is that god damn football team"
No justice......no peace pipe.
Change the name to Hispanic Whiteskins.....Marco Rubio can be the new mascot. George Zimmerman can fill in for him when he's on vacation.
I still can't figure out why we are all talking about it, it's a fucking joke, all of it... I will stick with my original idea and the idea of many others, FIRE ALL OF THEM AND SHUT IT DOWN FOR GOOD except military and infrastructure support. That is what the role of government should be, protection and support.
Can you elaborate further on what "military and "infrastructure support"" means?... Sounds like code speak for a larger military budget?
Anyone who cares to remember, this is how we got into this mess when on September 10, 2001 then Secretary of Defense Don Rusmfeld gave us the big "Oops we lost the $2.3 trillion DoD budget" courtesy of Dov Zakheim, and don't know where we put it???!!! Too bad the area of the Pentagon that was destroyed by a "plane" housed all of Dov's (not Don's) budget people who couldn't come forward the day after his revelation to testify?
The rest is history. It's been a free reign of black project(s) ever since, and the American taxpayer will never again be told what they have been on the hook for.
By the way? The definition of "military" is important if we want to fix the problem of our entire economy. The Founders called it a militia and it's completely different and the antithesis to it's original purpose and what has grown up around us since 1913. if this Country has any hope whatsoever of being salvaged the only option left is to make a concerted effort to shut down 550 of those military bases overseas and turn that money lose domestically. No more stealing from entitlements to pay for the war machine. In fact no more "entitlements" (.) along with an international based offensive military spending program!
If the last decade says anything it proves that we have been an abject failure militarily in every conceivable way. Should we make the decision to go to war with Syria and Iran what will be left of our armed forces will make the last 12 years look like prosperity.
The shutdown of the government has created a double dose of uncertainty.
and that's about the only thing they got right.
When people go to ivy league schools, do they actually pay to be conditioned to ignore such basic fundamentals?
Perhaps they pay for it, perhaps it's on a scholorship or grant. But what we do know is that such basic fundamentals are ignored unless, perhaps, there is a different goal that takes into account a different set of basic fundamentals, or uses the same ones, but interprets them differently.
Say you were among the 400 or so communists working in the White House right about now, how would you interpret the data if your goal was to destroy the USA and not save it?
True enough. Some guy once said, you cant expect them to tell the truth when they get paid to lie. Or some shit like that
May I offer
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!" - Upton Sinclair
He is also attributed this gem
Fascism is capitalism plus murder.
Sinclair was an idiot.
Who is this 'they' of which you speak, what is their leverage, and why aren't they prepared? Did they pay to be conditioned to ignore the perils of excessive debt?
You seem like quite the twat yourself, by the way.
Who Shut Down the Government?
Thomas Sowell | Oct 04, 2013
Even when it comes to something as basic, and apparently as simple and straightforward, as the question of who shut down the federal government, there are diametrically opposite answers, depending on whether you talk to Democrats or to Republicans.
There is really nothing complicated about the facts. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives voted all the money required to keep all government activities going -- except for ObamaCare.
This is not a matter of opinion. You can check the Congressional Record.
As for the House of Representatives' right to grant or withhold money, that is not a matter of opinion either. You can check the Constitution of the United States. All spending bills must originate in the House of Representatives, which means that Congressmen there have a right to decide whether or not they want to spend money on a particular government activity.
Whether ObamaCare is good, bad or indifferent is a matter of opinion. But it is a matter of fact that members of the House of Representatives have a right to make spending decisions based on their opinion.
ObamaCare is indeed "the law of the land," as its supporters keep saying, and the Supreme Court has upheld its Constitutionality.
But the whole point of having a division of powers within the federal government is that each branch can decide independently what it wants to do or not do, regardless of what the other branches do, when exercising the powers specifically granted to that branch by the Constitution.
The hundreds of thousands of government workers who have been laid off are not idle because the House of Representatives did not vote enough money to pay their salaries or the other expenses of their agencies -- unless they are in an agency that would administer ObamaCare.
Since we cannot read minds, we cannot say who -- if anybody -- "wants to shut down the government." But we do know who had the option to keep the government running and chose not to. The money voted by the House of Representatives covered everything that the government does, except for ObamaCare.
The Senate chose not to vote to authorize that money to be spent, because it did not include money for ObamaCare. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says that he wants a "clean" bill from the House of Representatives, and some in the media keep repeating the word "clean" like a mantra. But what is unclean about not giving Harry Reid everything he wants?
If Senator Reid and President Obama refuse to accept the money required to run the government, because it leaves out the money they want to run ObamaCare, that is their right. But that is also their responsibility.
You cannot blame other people for not giving you everything you want. And it is a fraud to blame them when you refuse to use the money they did vote, even when it is ample to pay for everything else in the government.
When Barack Obama keeps claiming that it is some new outrage for those who control the money to try to change government policy by granting or withholding money, that is simply a bald-faced lie. You can check the history of other examples of "legislation by appropriation" as it used to be called.
Whether legislation by appropriation is a good idea or a bad idea is a matter of opinion. But whether it is both legal and not unprecedented is a matter of fact.
Perhaps the biggest of the big lies is that the government will not be able to pay what it owes on the national debt, creating a danger of default. Tax money keeps coming into the Treasury during the shutdown, and it vastly exceeds the interest that has to be paid on the national debt.
Even if the debt ceiling is not lifted, that only means that government is not allowed to run up new debt. But that does not mean that it is unable to pay the interest on existing debt.
None of this is rocket science. But unless the Republicans get their side of the story out -- and articulation has never been their strong suit -- the lies will win. More important, the whole country will lose.
There is a reason the House has elections every two years, instead of four.
Its the Peoples House, our House.
The People have said no.
thomas sowell has an unfair advantage because he can write good
Actually, he can write well.
If he "wrote good", then he wouldn't be writing well.
Yeah.....that's write.
About 35 or 40 years ago, P. J. O'Rourke published an article in the (Harvard?/National?) Lampoon titled, "Let P. J. O'Rourke Teach You How to Write Good." It was profoundly amusing.
Actually he is a sophist of the first order and always has been. At least George Will always waits until the second-to-last paragraph to insert his little howlers. Sowell is generally wrong from the git-go. But, what do you expect from Stanford? Dilettantes with wealthy backers who don't like to think too hard.
Ha ha...poor saps, thinking they found an intellectual ally. Well, at least he tries to help his partisan team.
Exactly. I sure wish that evil corrupt shithole aka the Senate had elections every two years. Evil scum.
Back in the day...it was done the way it should be done.
The individual states sent two Senators to Washington to look after the individual STATES interests. But this got in the way of federal sovereignty OVER the states.
So, by sleight of hand, it "changed".
Uneducated rubes are much easier to control, best to do it now before their sons grow the wiser ;-)
I call bullshit. The purpose of the seperation of powers is it forces negotiation. Sure, the House can budget however they please, but they have to get it through the Senate and President, unless they can override the veto. The Reps have proven themselves to be incapabable of negotiation (or in this case, re-negotiaton of the ACA). Instead of working with the rest of the government, they shut it down. They have this power, but I would never vote someone who is too immature to work with others, or one who "negotiates" with a sledge hammer. We'll see who wins in 2014, and I suspect it will not be the Reps.
The House doesn't have to get jack shit through the Senate and Obama. They don't need to override a veto. The House IS the veto. It is the Senate and Obama that have to get what they want through the House. No House approval no funding. Simple as that. It is the cocksuckers in the Senate who are too immature to work with others and who are negotiating with a hammer. What you call bullshit is, apparently, what you are having for breakfast.
So please explain to me how Chuck Hagel can unilaterally put 400,000 furloughed DOD "non-essential" employees back on the payroll in the middle of a Federal government shutdown. Are we shut down or not? Or is this all just one HUGE fucking joke on the taxpayers? I personally believe that, at $88k per head on average, those payroll numbers were required to come out of available revenue to allow President Dickhead to say, "Oh, gee, I don't have the money now to pay the interest on the debt now so I'll have to default the nation. See what those nasty Republicans MADE me do?" Ah, Chicago hardball. Like taking a knife to a gunfight. (They happen there every night!)
Uhh, did you even attempt to read what he posted?
"$88k per head"
I read in USA Today and many other places the Gubmint worker is paid $122,000-$132,000/yr median income.
This contrasts with the private sector median income of $52k to $62k per year.
Is that incorrect?
So let me get this straigt....Obama is upset because the Affordable Care Act is on the books, it's the law of the land, and yet somebody has the authority and ability to just choose to ignore it and go along their business as though it didn't even exist.
Hmmm. Irony of all ironies.
Thus, checks & balances.
Progressives seem to have locked themselves into this idea that all laws are "just", that law can never "change", apparently, because they're the brightest people on the face of the planet and they just say so, so there...lol.
Hitler thought the very same thing, had judges & courts & procedures & enforcement too, all very respectable formalities of law. And so did Mao, Pol Pot & Stalin et al. Its like slavery has never existed under "law" to them. Prohibition was never a "law" or a Kings imposition of serfdom a "law".
Its really a quite remarkable meltdown to watch in real time ;-)
Incorrect. The party in power governs the nation. Too bad. If the Reps would stop fucking up so badly, maybe they could get back in power. I wouldn't bet on it.
As for the ACA, Progressives wanted the public option. They negotiated that away in order to get it passed. Now the Reps want to open it up all over again? This shows appalling bad faith.
Dumbass the Republicans are in power. They have the power of the purse. The House controls what money gets spent on. They petulant little pricks Obama and Reid are bent out of shape because after they shoved Obamacare down our throats the majority of people voted for representatives who were opposed to Obamacare. Those fucktards want to ignore the elections and the constitution. Tey count on ignorant people such as yourself to give them a pass.
"government of the party, by the party, for the party, shall not perish from the earth." Right?
BTW with whom did they negotiate to get it passed? Themselves? Maybe you should embrace diversity.
LOL
"Incorrect. The party in power governs the nation."
Pretty sure thats what the problem is now, they (and you, apparently) don't believe that the separation of powers is a very good idea. I happen to think it is, to stop bad law from being enforced.
At great personal risk of arguing with a fool, I'll attempt to splain sumpin to you.
The triade of power revolves around the legislature, executive & judicial branches. Influence is a different matter and doesn't enter into the discussion for the purposes at hand.
ONE HALF of the legislative branch has now been brought back under the control of the People.
The other half (the Senate) remains in the progressively moonbatish camp. When the progressives controlled both the executive AND the legislative branches they "negotiated" among themselves and passed a law called the ACA...commonly referred to as ObamaScare, which everyone with half a brain cell said was going to be a complete disaster.
The judicial branch weighed in narrowly and said it was just a tax with the executive branch having the responsiblity of enforcing it through their little storm troopers over at the IRS.
So, if we recognize we have a bad law, how is it fair to the People to have it enforced upon us & be governed by it...just because a few maniacs say do it or else?
Which was the EXACT point of my comment about Hitler having laws too...which you said was somehow incorrect.
Wow, what an appallingly stupid conception of how the government is set up and works.
That it is, my friend. They should just pass more laws to see what's in it, then control the outcome by presidential edict. What a clown show.
I agree with Mr Mouse Potato's post completely, but I have one question posed by a subsequent post by ZH post composed by Tyler Durden at the 18:33 hour today (two hours after this post) titled What if we go past the "X" Date?" and sourced from "BofAL" (not sure what the L stands for). In that post Durden says it is impossible for the Treasury to seperate out or prioritize U.S. Debt service payments form all their other non debt service bills because their computers are not designed to seperate out the lower priority items, thus causing a real debt default for technical reasons. My question, and it is I think a critical one is: Is it really true there are such techical hurdles? The answer determines whether the Obama administrations is bluffing or not on the default issue and whether we will really default or not. Just courious out here in Missouri.
As another point, Mark Levin, who is no stranger to the consitution and a former justice dept lawyer and having written a few books on the subject, says the US has a consitutional obligation to priortize debt obligations and that there is ample tax revenue druing a goft shutdown or debt limit raise failure to prevent a "default" on existing U.S. Debt obligations. What is the truth? Can the treasury acomplish this tecnically?
If it is the law to prioritize and they can technicaly do it and the Obama administration willfully fails to serivce the debt there should be no hesitation in drawiing up the impeachment papers by the House and voting for it even if the Senate won't vote to remove from office.
BofAML = Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Also that article you referred to was posted yesterday (10-04). I missed it and it answered a question I posed.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-04/what-if-we-go-past-x-date
Can they prioritize the debt payments? Of course.
Are there funds to pay? Of course.
The failure to raise the debt ceiling might be a technical default (default with no payment consequences but TDs are viewed by many corporate bondholders as a precursor to real default. )
Debt ceiling will be raised Wall Street needs to the flow to their primary dealers this is blood to the vampires.
Read the Stockman piece Tyler posted this weekend. Required reading for ZHers.
Tom, you flatter me ... all credit due belongs to Dr. Sowell.
"More important, the whole country will lose."
The "whole country" is losing because people in places of influence and control are playing politics, in self-preservation.
And no, that is not rocket science either.
Sowell gives too much credit, and misses the dynamic in play.
Dr Sowell always has a great grasp of facts.
Where in the Constitution does the term "single out a specific program" and choose not to fund it? Where is the word "opinion" in the Constitution? Check how Romneycare is working in Mass after 7 years.
Could the Democrats have improved on "Romneycare"? Heck yeah. Take RomneyCare, and the horse it rode in on, from the Heritage, and go to Kinkos. Make 49 copies and say "the other 49 states can use Romneycare." If the Dems had just taken the original page count and made it as idiot proof as possible, that would have lowered the Republican ojections.
I don't see the word "opinion" in the Constitution. I see meeting the US goverment debt and upholding the full faith and credit of the US government.
In addition to term limits, I see term accounting. Republicans were quite happy to have two unfunded wars and tax cuts for the wealthy. Those should have been zeroed out at the end of Bush's time in office, by whatever means necessary. President Obama should have started with a clean budget. As for Bush's folly, Obama can leave that folly to the House of Represenatives. He doesn't have to make it his problem.
Spoken like a true Red Team shill.
There will be no taper. Never.
Now you sound like me.... :)
You're a handsome devil.
Pancake and a schmoke?
Shigar and a waffle?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zb3H6MWGCOo
Blintz and a bong?
Pipe and a crepe?
Nothing then?
Well there's no pleasing you.
Haha...
Let the shoosting begin...
At least you two know when to Taper.
Unlike some. ;-)
If they do taper it will be when something explodes and it will already be too late then.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJQKJqGC7w0
"We're just going to kill the dollar"
Keep stacking homies!
Anyone who has served two terms or more needs to go..........
First term in office, 2nd term from a light pole. Problem solved
Start with
McCain
Lindsay Grahma
Feinstein
Pelosi
Reid
You just gave me a tingle up my leg.
Hang ALL of them! There would be enough meat to feed the feral dogs in Detroit for a few days.
A billion youtube hits for the hanging videos. To see those bastards twitch...
....go to a camp where they are investigated and tried for treasonous irresponsible custodianship of the nation. With punishments meted out appropriate to their crimes...death for violating the US Constitution, and a host of harsh imprisonments for their various lesser crimes. Their staffs too, and all the DC insider scum.
There will be a deal, because there always is deal. Before it comes to fruition, there will be a bit of volatility.
http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2013/10/05/around-the-globe-weekend-ed...
A week into the government shutdown with no resolution in sight, BOA's latest expert analysis is: "The bank's base case now calls for "either a two-week shutdown or for multiple shutdowns."
Wow, they're like Nostradamus. It cutting edge, insightful analysis like this that made BOA what it is today.
Matt Taibbi
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/bank-of-america-too-crooked-to-fail-20120314
+1
Agreement is not desired as long as Obamacare is on the books.
Anyway, nobody is paying any attention to the shutdown except for Obama's goons putting up barbed wire around national monuments and ordering people not to look at the ocean because it's a federal responsibility.
The Tea Party says:
1-800-FUCKYO to both O'Barry & BoA.
Who'd they put in charge of acquiring the 800 number ... Jesse Pinkman?
I'm thinking that was a total "command decision"...they love the lame parlor jokes that they can tell each other & snicker about behind our backs in the comfort of their static environs.
Kinda like, WTF.
Winning The Future
Really, WTF is that? ;-)
Are you suggesting that we lose the future? That makes me sad.
Ahh yes, the "experts" at BAC! They know their chit don't they?
Trade bitcoins here with 5:1 leverage
Tyler likes gold.
Does they like bitcoin?
FORWARD, COMRADES!!
Big banks love Obamacare because it kills any recovery and that keeps QE flowing
I can only assume that those "Americans strongly disapprove of the shutdown and put more blame on Republicans than Democrats" are the same ones that are currently NOT signing up for Obamacare in droves.
Devilishly good observation!
I love the belief that THIS, is what could derail the economy. No mention of the horrible reality. This train left the rails a long time ago...
I stopped reading..."the economy may be ready to shift from second gear to third gear"
WTF!!!!!BoA??....get a clue....we are going in reverse at a faster and faster speed!!!!
Ever try to drive REAL fast backwards.....get that little 'wobble' that turns into an uncontrollable wobble!!!!
How can I resepct ANY analysis when ALL the Big IB's have been proclaiming recovery is just around the corner-next quarter for 5 FUCKING YEARS!!!
Whatever happened to "green shoots"?
The green shoots had better be from an Aloe plant after how badly the banks/fed burned our asses.
The only green shoots I'm aware of, are the ones that millions of us flushed this morning.
Gnostics on ZeroHedge often claim that R's and D's are shills working the same swindle, with no real difference between them. As long as they don't cave in to Obama, the R's are proving the Gnostics wrong.
Some public-school kid on the nightly propaganda report said that he wished there were more "bipartisanship" in Washington. In other words, R's and D's aren't the same, but we'd be better off if they were!!
I guess it would save us the hassle of voting every two years.
What's it like to go thru life with such flawed logic always leading to flawed conclusion. It must be depressing,
Fuck parties. Just have individuals.
Two things hurt our country terribly: the first was direct election of Senators by the people. This killed the primary purpose of Senators which was to do what was in the best interests of their States. Prior to this most Senators were very much middle-groud moderates who still fought like hell for THEIR states. States' rights therefore carried a lot of weight with them and it was difficult to implement federal policies (such as nationalized education) that interfered with the states. Once they were at the behest of the public (now directly instead of indirectly) it became a popularity game.
The second thing that hurt us was capping the House at 435. While I understand the reasoning behind this there was a better way to go about it. As it stands Representatives do not represent their people very well. I wouldn't care if there were 1000 reps. Why not? It's supposed to be based upon population, and I don't care if it takes them longer to "get things done". I'd rather they get things done RIGHT or not at all. Hastiness makes for bad legislation. What we should've done (and this is just something I've thought about for years) was have a low exponential growth scale.
For example. Everyone gets a free rep at 0 population. At 100,000 (plus 1k) you get another one. Another at 250K (plus 1.5k) . Another at 450K (plus 2k). And add 2.5k to get your fifth representative at 700,000 population. Your 6th rep would be an even Million. Your 7th would come in at 1.35 million. It would be quite easy to set a scale similar to this so that your next representative comes in with increasing population, but the threshold for obtaining the next one is a very slight increase.
So why does Wy still have one rep, but MT with nearly double the population also have one? And why does ID have two with an increase less than half the difference of that between WY and MT? Under my scale they'd come in at having 4, 5, and 6 representatives respectively, and by 2020 would likely have 4, 6 and 7 which would be quite fair given those states populations. You can do this for any state, but I kept it low to show disparities. Under this type of system citizens in larger states would also not only have an increased say in who represents them, but would also actually participate more. States would be much less suitable to wide-scale gerrymandering (with impossible boundary stretching between districts; check a map of MD for example) with more reps. It would just prove how ridiculous some boundaries are.
Plus with the election of Senators by state legislatures people would pay attention to state & local politics more. You know, where it should matter the most.
Hmm, that is an interesting tweak.
I will take this opportunity to describe another tweak I heard some decades ago:
How to avoid lame ducks: make term limits stochastic. For example, a term limit can be defined by a decreasing probability schedule decided during the last year of a term; the schedule could be like (0.8, 0.2, 0.02) which would mean chance of four terms is 1 / 312.
1000 repsentatives, you gotta be kidding. 435 is too many. 100 is more like it. All they do is line their pockets and campaign.
It's a small price to pay for better laws. I agree with halving their salaries though. It's not like they have any expenses anyway.
Yes, let's cut their salaries until they HAVE to take bribes.
You're just nibbling at the problem. We need to return to sound money, abolish income taxation (this means no welfare state), and limit the vote to men who pay taxes*. Voting isn't a right, it's a responsibility, like military service or jury duty, and most women don't vote well. A conservative woman ought to rejoice upon losing the vote, for she takes two or three liberals with her.
* There could be other requirements like marriage, children, property ownership, etc., which are best decided at the state level.
You're suggesting what's called Timocracy.
Yeah...When it concerns Political Science my first source for advice is a local Sixth Grader Wise Ass who knows it all. They have so much experience and wisdom that I defer to thier sage advice....LMFAO. /sarcasm
Are you really that foolish, DaveA? Really? Come on. We are a little bit brighter than that. Aren't you? You really underestimate us. Actually it is INSULTING. Maybe the insult to our intellect is the reason we have withheld our investment funds from the Markets? Is that a possibility?
By the way, DaveA. This is ALL THEATER as the Government is not shut down. DOD recalls 50% of its "furloughed" employees back to work? Yeah. Right.
There is no difference between the two Political Parties and this is theater to provide a Cover Story for the Default on Bonds.
"If the X (Republicans or Democrats...your pick) did not shut it down then we'd have made good on our promises...Really. It is thier FAULT." will be the excuse given. That is why the Stock Market crashed. That is why the Bond Market crashed.
The Banks have stocked ATMs with 30% more cash. What are they expecting? A BANK RUN? The writing is on the wall for anyone with the eyes to see it. We are cooked. If not this time...maybe the next? But needless to say we are cooked. And the Political Parties are playing, "Distract the Masses" again. Nothing is new.
Well it is all crashing down now, pal. Hope you have some Gold and Silver. Hope that you were wise enough to heed that advice.
We are playing out the End Game. Get ready if you are not already.
Boehner "STAND OUR GROUND " only the communists want Obamacare.
Ha ha ha, the Reps a quickly making themselves un-electable.
Hey, a talking bank. Well waddya know?
How come our 'shutdown' costs us more than not 'shutting down' da gubbamint? If we are shut down, does that mean I don't have to pay taxes any more? Can I end the automatic extortion of money from my paycheck for all da gubbamint BS I'll never benefit from and wouldn't want even if I COULD benefit from it?
The DC child-pirates plundering us can eat the corn and peanuts outta my dookie!
The following paragraph has no place in a report of this kind as economic news.
This story is 100 percent Democrat talking points. Yes, it’s presented by bankers but it might as well be Huffington Post headline material.
It’s one thing to keep tabs on what the bankers are reporting about their fiscal outlook because we know where they are coming from. But to actually print their opinionated views on who is responsible for the shutdown and their biased estimate on what’s going to happen is not only political and unfair to their broad customer base but it should never be misused as economic news.
This is revolting. And shameful.
We’ve been dealing with the lies of Harry Reid and the name calling and accusations for weeks; now do we get to hear it from the bankers?
Before Obama met with the Congressional leaders earlier this week, he met with the top bankers in the midst of the government slowdown. We know no information changed hands with the Congressional leaders but the banker session in the midst of this slowdown obviously was to hammer out talking points both for the banks and Obama since they are on the same side in this battle.
Obama’s role is to blame the Republicans and use scare tactics threatening default and SS check hold ups and to misrepresent the truth about the cost of ObamaCare… the bankers’ talking points are to dramatize a Fed delay in tapering, an economic shift from second into third gear, “cut our forecast for GDP growth"… and “much worse outcomes "...with "numerous spillover effects”… Never mind if ObamaCare, if funded, continues its ongoing wipeout of America's middle- and upper-middle class families and lets fall the iron curtain of socialism over this great nation.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch says ObamaCare is a loser for the Republicans. How about for our nation? We’re losing our country.
"...to actually print their opinionated views on who is responsible for the shutdown."
They are accurately stating that most of the polling that has been done from many different polls across the political spectrum ... pew, FOX NEWS!!!!!, Washington Post, CNN-ORC are finding that the GOP's position, as presented to the public, is viewed unfavorably....
IMO, I think the budget needs to be balanced and this shit needs to stop... but the manner in which the GOP is going about this is insane.... Looking at the past performance I believe neither party can bear the pain of balancing the budget, hence the on going "theater of the absurd".......
What is insane about stopping funding on a program which is a amajor failure and intensely disliked by a majority of the population?
Harry Reid is not the only liar in the healthcare crisis; the newest grand lie for proponents of ObamaCare is to rig polls to show that Americans don’t want the law repealed and that they blame Republicans for attempting to defund it.
The central poll being used by the media to this hour, according to Forbes “was conducted by the Morning Consult, a healthcare media company founded by Michael Ramlet.”
The Forbes’ article acknowledges, imo, that the Morning Consult poll is a wild card. Here’s the lead:
“Polls consistently show that Americans aren’t happy with Obamacare. They think the law will make health care more expensive, and decrease its quality. But a new survey of 1,976 registered voters finds that only 33 percent believe that the health law should be repealed, delayed, or defunded. … The bottom line? Voters are skeptical thatObamacare will live up to Democrats’ hype. But they also believe that it should be given a chance to succeed.”
Never has the media been so over-the-top and outrageously tyrannical; would it stretch its aggressiveness to manipulate the poll numbers? Absolutely.
As for FOX NEWS!, it’s had its shoulder behind the ObamaCare shove since its inception. If you’ve any doubts, listen any day at any one of it half hour on the hour radio broadcasts.Thely're all Obama soundbite sells and demonizations of House Republicans.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2013/09/30/new-poll-only-one-third-of-americans-support-repealing-defunding-or-delaying-obamacare
"...polls consistantly show that Americans aren't happy with Obama care".
You are correct but they DO like Affordable Health Care.
Young teenagers always have difficulty perceiving reality and the situation they are in...especially when on their own driving with open liquor and no speed limits (in their mind).
As they all vent and rant, it will be like any rubicon or epic battle.
This may be the tipping point, and this may be it.
Newsflash, JR (Ewing): We've ALREADY lost the country.
Mere blogs and 'voting' won't bring it back to you/us.
No offense, but you (folks) keep believing that it will, if you like.
There’s a time, Kirk, to give up but it’s catastrophic to give up before you’ve lost. Don’t mistake the lies of the enemies for their victory.
This Leviathan government sweeping over us with its “Empire” has been partially shut down by Congressmen pushed into their positions by the rising anger of the middle class. It is what I believe is the beginning of that final fight predicted for centuries: the people against the banks. It’s one we’ve got to win and this is no time to surrender.
Surviving a disaster begins in the mind. Hang in there!
Greece is gonna default and the FEDs gonna tapper.
“[T]he sheer number of scandals suggests that misbehavior, abuse of power, and possibly corruption are not something being dreamed up by the GOP, but a defining characteristic of the Obama administration.” -- Veteran White House reporter Keith Koffler of White House Dossier
And, now, ObamaCare written by Big Pharma midst economic depression...
Peter Schiff Warns of Economic Depression and Martial Law (video)Infowars.com
October 5, 2013
American investment broker, businessman, author and financial commentator Peter Schiff warns us that we are in worse shape now economically than we were just before the 2008 financial crisis, which we still have yet to recover from
“I think the U.S. has been in a depression or a recession for the entirety of the Obama presidency,” Schiff said. “I think there’s going to be a depression, but I don’t think it’s going to be global.”
“When the dollar collapses and when the rest of the world stops wasting their resources, propping up our economy, buying our debt, selling us products that we can’t pay for, I think you’re going to have a global economic boom outside of the United States.”
“I just hope that one day we’re smart enough to jump in on it by adopting free market principles.”
“I hope we can reclaim our former glory,” he continued. “But to do that’s we’re going to have to reclaim the values that we have abandoned and those are the ones that our Founding Fathers wrote into our Constitution, not the ones that we’re following now.”
http://www.infowars.com/peter-schiff-warns-of-martial-law/
Hmmm lets see if the "dollar collapses" its going to be "global shit" met fan time...
"...there’s going to be a depression, but I don’t think it’s going to be global."
<rolling eyes and considering the source... info wars..... sadly shaking head....>
Preamble: This is, or WAS, Fight Club. Not some damn Junior High popularity blog with sycophant followers. You're supposed to fucking think for yourself, and not be a sheep of a different 'brand'.
Now...
As for Schiff, I actually "like" Pete and he'll be proven right "in the long run". In the meantime, his investment record is worse than that of a broken clock (which is dead-on twice a day). Just ask his clients -- many of whom bemoan (here on ZH) their portfolio with him. --> Let's keep Perspective, in other words.
As for Info Wars, as others on ZH have also pointed out... They go after anybody and everybody, except for one group. You figure out who that is. The point is, when an "independent" broadcastor elevates one group into the Holy or Chosen status, it becomes blatantly obvious to a thinking person with an IQ higher than a football team jersey, that they might be just another "Controllable Flystrip", to attract all those "pesky flies".
IOW, just because source A or B "said so", doesn't make it "Gospel". For those who like to live by the gospel, that is.
“I think the U.S. has been in a depression or a recession for the entirety of the Obama presidency,” Schiff said.
It IS a depression. No thinking neccesary. 47 million people on food stamps. The economy is depressed. 10% real unemployment. The economy is depressed.
"How come to end modern day slavery?" said the fucking bankster who is on taxpayer life support.
Whether the government is open or the government is closed, the can is still being kicked down the road.
Whatever deal is agreed to, the can will still be kicked down the road.
... who moved the deck chairs on the Titanic? Whose fault is it that the Government is shut down? Kind of an irrelevant question.
Some dismal logic may be forthcoming.
1. A few months ago the Fed lost control of the interest rates.
2. The Fed and Ben talked-up tapering and 'was' going to taper, but then pulled out the rug the last minute.
Both of the above indicate end-game and the Repubs know it is now or never to clear out the mess.
It might take 5 years to right the ship...but now its taking on water and the rich are escaping on the life boats, while the poor and middle class are under water.
Its been 5 years since hit iceberg...and its now taking on too much water.
Clear out the rot (corruption) and get rid of all the ballast (debt).
Like the end of Matrix3...try to get clean now or never.
The Bankers are worried about Obamacare because they see the writing on the wall: Everyone will be busy paying for Obamacare with little left to pay banking debts and loans. If the debt slaves are forced to buy insurance-Cartel rigged healthcare, there may be less cooperation in paying those credit card debts off...Oops! Looks like the PTB created a conflict of interest for themselves.
Obomba Care is so insane it's almost as is if it designed to fail. They go back to the drawing board and dream up and even more repulsive plan, so Obomba care is not that bad after all and is set into law and surrounded by concrete for all not to see.
look, obuma care is the biggest kick back program and golden parachute for the dc pols since federal highway taxes.
that is why top GOP pols are fighting to keep it going and telling the new tea party gop congressmen to shut up.
Romneycare has been in place for 6 years in Mass. and is successful. It's common sense it could be replicated in 49 other states. Polls show Mass, people are satisfied with Romneycare 67-84%; no one wants to return to the former system. How does Romneycare succeeding in one state suggest that Obamacare will fail in 49 other states?
If the market had dropped 20% on a taper, even 10%, there would be no shutdown.
Is Chairman Bernanke a Tea Party sympathizer?
FED = Anarchists.
This is all said tongue in cheek of course. But of course, once satire drifts into irony, the effects can be ...unexpected.
When you consider Bath House wanted to close the ocean, you must consider he is quite insane. There are many other examples of his obvious mental incapacity to list here.
Homocare will destroy the country, as intended. Nobody can afford to pay it and own a car, or eat, or have a place to live while paying thousands of dollars for phony health care.
We are at a point where Bath House needs to be removed from office, by force, via any governmental authority with the legal means to do so. ASAP. Or this Republic will most definitely fold.
What's that Smell?? http://shutupnsing.wordpress.com/2013/10/06/from-the-head-of-the-fish/
Government is presently spending over 40% above its tax revenues and making up the difference with money it creates out of thin air. Since when is stopping this madness bad? Well, it might be in the short run, but the effects of infinite money are even worse.
Infinite money = infinite government. Where government expands, liberty must retreat. L = 1/G.
The funny thing about this default BS is, we have printed trillions and trillions of dollars, which is a default in itself.
BAC - may you lose more customers.
I have my own obsevable real world economic bArometer I check daily which is the amount of commercial trucks on the e presswAy traveling east and west between fort wayne In. and Detroit . It is showing robust activity now. There is something picking up and car sales have caught the automakers on the back foot so they are playing catch up now. Sustainable??
"BAC now expects the Fed to delay tapering to their January meeting, or later. Which may well have been the much needed alibi all along to delayed tapering until 2014."
Then to delay until 2015. Then to delay until 2016. Then...
They don't need an alibi. The lack of treasury debt was supposed to be the reason why they were forced to taper.
Yellen is supposed to be a money pusher, but how can she push, if she is forced to taper, because of a lack of treasury debt?
"Much worse outcomes are possible. In our view, agreement is almost impossible as long as the Affordable Care Act is on the table. The President is very unlikely to agree to cuts in his proudest legislative achievement."
I don't see anything to be proud about in harming the American people. People are losing full time jobs. 88% of jobs created this year are part time.
Repubicans have bitten off way more than they can chew. Now that the Exchange is open there is no postponing and no going back. Big Biz will make them shape up at the appointed time.