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Gold And The Real Change To Watch For

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man blog,

It takes a lot of courage to go against the crowd.

Whether in investing, or acknowledging that your country is heading towards an epic fiscal crisis, it isn’t easy to stand alone… especially when everyone else is betting the other way.

Have you ever noticed, for example, that investors are often only interested in buying some stock or asset when its price is going up?

It’s as if a rising stock price is somehow validation that everyone else thinks it’s a good investment too.

Of course, these types of situations often make the worst investments. If you buy when everyone else is piling in, you could very well be the last sucker to enter a crowded room before the music stops.

The opposite is also true. When an investment has cratered and the price has fallen through the floor, nobody really wants to buy.

Realistically, the opposite should be true. And gold is an interesting example of this.

After more than a decade of positive returns, many investors have abandoned their precious metals positions. The conventional wisdom says that gold is ‘finished’. After all, the dollar price is falling… so it must be a bad ‘investment’.

Others, however, are looking at where gold is right now, where it probably will be a few years from now, and thinking that it’s a hell of a bargain.

Azerbaijan’s State Oil Fund (SOFAZ) is in this group. The fund recently announced that they were increasing their gold holdings by 33% over the next year.

This is a big move for the $35 billion fund, and they join other sovereign wealth funds from Qatar to China, plus central banks in places like Turkey, Russia, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan, who are increasing their gold holdings.

This is a significant trend that is unfolding.

Right now, the United States is in a privileged position because of the dollar’s status as the primary reserve currency. Mr. Bernanke can print trillions of dollars, then export much of that new money overseas.

Few other nations would be able to get away with this. In Argentina, for example, the government has engaged in similar wanton monetary inflation.

But Argentine pesos are not accepted anywhere else in the world. All of those pesos remain at home… and this has created debilitating inflation bordering on a currency crisis.

The US gets to spread its dollars all over the world, thus pushing the negative inflationary effects onto foreign nations. From Sri Lanka to Botswana to Ukraine to Cambodia, I’ve seen it first hand with my own eyes.

Foreign nations have long trusted the United States to maintain a sound dollar. But for decades, and especially over the last several years, America has abused this privileged trust.

That’s why it’s coming to an end. It’s absurd to think that the rest of the world will just lay down and suffer, indefinitely, so that Americans can keep buying McMansions, flat screen TVs, and cruise missiles.

Everywhere you look there are signs of this happening.

Russia has recently agreed to sell oil to the Chinese, accepting renminbi as payment. Fortune 500 companies from McDonalds to Morgan Stanley have issued bonds denominated in Chinese renminbi. Even the London Stock Exchange now has a thriving renminbi bond business.

The gold story in Azerbaijan is just one more brick in the wall. But it underscores this growing theme of the end of the US dollar’s dominance– one of the most critical trends in the world today.


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Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:36 | 4028569 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

I want that little nugget in the picture!!


Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:38 | 4028732 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I found a peace of gold that looked like that (under a microscope). I worked all day for it. That was the last time I went panning for gold. It's far cheaper to just go buy it at current manipulated spot prices.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 20:27 | 4028886 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Anyone that can look at the debt the world is facing and think gold is smokin dope.


Any of you college freshmen taking Econ 101. Find the page in your textbook that says investing in gold is too the page out and throw it in the trash. Don't tell the professor.....he'll flunk your ass!

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 20:31 | 4028904 akak
akak's picture

$17T (and rising) federal debt: This is your brain

"Gold is finished": This is your brain on Keynesianism

Any questions?

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 20:56 | 4028962 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

I've taken a liking to pre 1933 gold coins. I have found it to be a great hobby and I could care less what the price is doing. Some people waste their money collecting stamps. I waste mine collecting gold coins. If you think it's a waste that is.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 21:27 | 4029046 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Money, enoyed being wasted, is not "wasted money".

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 03:18 | 4029598 Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

"Submitted by Simon Black"

Stopped reading right there. Like I need "Mr. I've just had a very secure password I've been using for decades hacked" to tell me what he thinks.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 01:44 | 4029544 fourchan
fourchan's picture

same here, those st gaudens are amazing works of art compared to the crap in circulation today.

they may as well just be making that trash from plastic and cardboard, really what would be the difference.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 01:43 | 4029545 fourchan
fourchan's picture

same here, those st gaudens are amazing works of art compared to the crap in circulation today.

they may as well just be making that trash from plastic and cardboard, really what would be the difference?

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 21:49 | 4029093 Trampy
Trampy's picture

Anyone that can look at the debt the world is facing and think gold is smokin dope.

Nonsense!  You obviously don't know anything about drugs and their users, where MJ and other psychedelics are favored by some of the smartest people around.

Anyone who now  thinks gold is finished is just plain STUPID ... and the favorite drugs of the stupid are alcohol and tobacco.

If they're smoking a controlled substance it's most likely crack ... the second choice from their favorite: insufflated cocaine.

Here's a fix for ya

Anyone that can look at the debt the world is facing and think gold is smokin crack.


Mon, 10/07/2013 - 01:03 | 4029502 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

I stapled all my gold coins to Simon's skull, so I know they will always be safe as he would never go where gold can be confiscated.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 07:21 | 4029729 Nothing but the...
Nothing but the truth.'s picture

As much as the Fed keeps trying to supress PM's , gold and silver will outlast all their efforts - they've got 2000 years of universal acceptance going for them. The Fed is fighting a losing battle.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 14:11 | 4031139 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Late comment, but the average fiat regime lasts about 90 years.. the only reason the FRN is still around and kicking is that it was maneuvered into a global reserve and that has been no war or black swan to displace it.. yet.

The FRN is getting a little long in the tooth and the US is doing all the right things to get that tooth knocked right out the skull.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:37 | 4028574 mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture

The Golden Age is yet to come.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:48 | 4028608 GVB
GVB's picture

Understand the environment will not be pretty. This is all about inflation. And you don't want to be part of it when that financial monster explodes. Really

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 20:12 | 4028827 Constitutional ...
Constitutional Republic's picture

Gold is an insurance policy no one of serious mind would ever want to use. Just like we buy fire insurance, there may be a time when that is the only thing that preserves one's belongings, and life perhaps.

Once upon a time, it was conventional financial advice to hold 10% of one's investment pyramid in physical gold; up to 30% in times of turmoil.

Charlie Munger is a jerk; so are the other profits of the modern fiat. Many Jews fleeing Nazis survived because gold coins were sewn into their clothes. The same will be true for the modern equivalent: if you don't own some physical gold and silver, then you will be left at the mercy of the chaos when this latest experiment with fiat implodes - or explodes in WWIII.

Interesting, little known fact: certain covert British military ops are given gold coins to sew into their clothes in case of their caputure in hostile territory. The coins are documented, and must be returned upon the operatives return to base.

Just my opinion. Do as you please.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 22:25 | 4029227 BillyTheBlade
BillyTheBlade's picture

This is true bout the military and gold coins, at least with the SAS during GW1....Read Bravo Two Zero.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 23:22 | 4029338 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

For combat sorties over Iraq, we always had a 1 oz. Krugerrand.  Plus a Sig Sauer 9 mm, "blood chit", and standard survival gear.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 01:06 | 4029506 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

I'm unclear here, after you burned the gold on a wild night with 3 Iraqi whores, what came next?  Kinda pathetic a pilot is give ONE fucking barbaric relic. Hell, Major Kong got more gold and a real fucking pistol.

  • Survival kit contents check. In them you'll find: one forty-five caliber automatic; two boxes of ammunition; four days' concentrated emergency rations; one drug issue containing antibiotics, morphine, vitamin pills, pep pills, sleeping pills, tranquilizer pills; one miniature combination Russian phrase book and Bible; one hundred dollars in rubles; one hundred dollars in gold; nine packs of chewing gum; one issue of prophylactics; three lipsticks; three pair of nylon stockings. Shoot, a fella' could have a pretty good weekend in Vegas with all that stuff.
Mon, 10/07/2013 - 05:50 | 4029675 JoBob
JoBob's picture

+1 for echoes of Slim Pickens.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 06:59 | 4029713 GetZeeGold
Sun, 10/06/2013 - 20:42 | 4028913 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Gold's future is intertwined with not only the future of the USD, but with money in general.

For more info on the "Future of Money", see this presentation that Jim Rickards made recently in Bratislava

The Future of Money – Jim Rickards

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 00:32 | 4029454 it aint easy
it aint easy's picture

Someone linked this here recently, I thought it was very interesting:

From the article:

The Treasury has considered that option (selling the gold), among the many others, and rejected it. “Selling gold would undercut confidence in the U.S. both here and abroad,” a spokeswoman said, “and would be destabilizing to the world financial system.”


Now what I want to know is how something that the Treasury claims ensures confidence in the U.S. (and indeed the world financial system) worldwide is only worth $340 billion? How many months of QE is that? Yea, 4 months.

4 stinking months.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:39 | 4028575 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Buy it, but if you don't hold it you don't own it.  

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:51 | 4028779 Silveramada
Silveramada's picture

And hold it very tight! the weak players are shaken like dry leaves at any paper sell off...

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:41 | 4028577 M9L
M9L's picture

I am sorry, did not expect such a weak article from you guys. 33% increase of what position? And honestly $35bn is peanuts in a grand scale of things.

Postpone the doom and gloom scenario and you will see that supply outsrtips demand, gold producers committed to higher prices and will sell at a loss to minimise fixed costs therefore pushing the price higher, easy to do in a homogenous market. 100 tonnes demand from China is done, it can not grow much more, prices are falling at the jewelery markets. Couple that with stupid money outflows from the ETF funds and later on a QE pullback and you will be wondering how it still is hovering around 1300 mark.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:44 | 4028589 CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

Simon, painting pictures for you; he likes to finger paint.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:44 | 4028597 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

My empirical evidence is just the opposite.

My LCS guy has told me repeatedly that the majority of his business is buying from the public on the dips because they think the sky is falling.


Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:06 | 4028632 akak
akak's picture

Oh Jon Nadler, how many times are you going to repeat those same lame arguments while reality continues to slap you in the face?

By the way, you forgot to mention all those mountains of scrap gold just littering the landscape, as well as to cast a few gratituous aspersions at your fictional "Radical Goldbug Extremists".  Your bankster overlords are not going to be happy with your sloppy work here.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:12 | 4028654 Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture

That’s right akak, these trolls never source any facts or citations in trying to support their positions.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 20:06 | 4028815 auric1234
auric1234's picture

$1300? The paper crap can go to zero. Who cares? I know I'm selling any of mine at that ridiculous price.

When it hits $55,000 and people are out of their minds trying to buy it.... then we can talk.


Sun, 10/06/2013 - 23:28 | 4029345 TheDarkKnight
TheDarkKnight's picture

$35bln valued in todays dollars.

What happens when the dollars reserve currency is abdicated? What would that gold be valued at in market with gold backed currency? What would that gold be valued at in a market of gold as currency? 


Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:42 | 4028583 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Let's see. Gold: a 5,000 year history. It's never failed. Ever.

Paper money: 100% failure rate - it's a question of when. Most seem to last about 30 years or so.

Hmm, which to choose?

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:44 | 4028590 M9L
M9L's picture

Unless they invent immortality there is a very high chance we will not see that failure. IMHO Modern Macro tools are quite advanced, it is hard to imagine a major currency failure.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:46 | 4028601 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture

Have you been taking lessons from MillionDollarBonus?!?


Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:53 | 4028614 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Pretty soon no big ticket items will be allowe to be bought with cash. we are talking about a digital money failure this time.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:54 | 4028617 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

MDB is like a reptilian, quite capable of shape shifting. From Harry Wagner to MDB to quite possibly M9L.

Let the games begin.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:03 | 4028629 LawyerScum
LawyerScum's picture

"Macro tools are quite advanced, it is hard to imagine a major currency failure."

Sounds like something a Dr. Krugman would say right after bragging about his Nobel Prize.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:19 | 4028684 radiotom
radiotom's picture

I think MDB is satire. Have you read those articles on his website?

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 22:51 | 4029284 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

I've often thought that too. I went from thinking he was the biggest idiot in the world to thinking just maybe he is doing this as satire, as a big joke. It looks like all the dumbest parts of the comments section from a krugman article rolled into one. I think he is just fucking with everyone on this sight. But, then again, this is America. He very well may be that stupid.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:50 | 4028611 Arius
Arius's picture

"Modern Macro tools are quite advanced"

where have i heard this before? Oh yes, another more sophisticated version of "this time is different" ... trust me.... yeah right ... i hope you are right but i wont bet money on it

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:54 | 4028615 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture





Are you 5 yrs old or 3?

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:19 | 4028676 TrulyBelieving
TrulyBelieving's picture

 You are right, it is hard to imagine a currency failure, but yet it is coming.  Once you have acknowledged that the laws of physics and mathematics are extremely stable then you can apply them to what is happening and the end result is quite predictable. This is why history repeats itself, same actions (1 plus 1 is always equal to 2) equal same results. And the results of what these greedy fools are doing will be disaster.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 20:38 | 4028920 indygo55
indygo55's picture

The government puppets by way of their true rulers do is  spend tons of money hiring and training these trolls to scour sites like ZH to spread a shadow of doubt. What they don't understand is that the regulars here are already so AWAKE that nothing they can do will work. This is one of their weaknesses. They have many but they are not all obvious. They can be defeated. I am hopeful.



Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:33 | 4028715 slyhill
slyhill's picture

He admits fiat fails, then fucks the strawman with no reacharound.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:45 | 4028751 xtop23
xtop23's picture

Oh my.


Sun, 10/06/2013 - 20:04 | 4028809 Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

I have my six month supply of cash, but every penny I now generate goes to PM's. How many more out there like me?


Be very afraid....

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:53 | 4028619 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

in the old days the Silk Road accepted gold...  seems like things DO change

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 21:18 | 4029015 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I like gold.  I love gold.  Heck I own 'some'.  But there's a first time for everything. 

The 5,000 yrs notwithstanding, I can easily foresee a scenario where gold does us little or limited good while within the US:  If, rather when we get a global currency -- the SDR.  Then, depending on what the SDR is based on, gold will play "some" role, or none at all.

When the "Thou shall peg thy currency to the SDR!" point is reached, gold will see a ONE-time adjustment for a very long time.  Hedge accordingly.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 00:11 | 4029423 it aint easy
it aint easy's picture

I often feel that the most sober view isn't so much about whether gold will reclaim it's value contra fiat, but rather if we'll live long enough to see that day.


Mon, 10/07/2013 - 01:41 | 4029540 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

That's an extremely myopic position.

Did gold fail when the guy who had gold was shot to death - from the standpoint of the gold holder, that is...  and that is all that matters to the gold holder.

How about when it is confiscated?

Or when it goes from $800+ and ounce to $300 an ounce as the money supply is going exponential?

Everything has risks, INCLUDING GOLD.

Don't be mad at me - if you are then you are an emotional thinker and not rational.  Beware of irrational decision making.

Look big picture...  what does one need to survive day to day...  get control of that first.  That includes a community and the ability to defend it.

I think "gold" has become the idea of the new investment game post crash.

I have news for you...  there will be no investment game for ordinary people when this B* collapses.

Time to get dirty and productive, not dream of ways to extend the false reality we've been weaned on in our lifetimes.

Gold is an asset with some risks and some rewards.  it is better than bank account when the implosion hits, of course.  But it isn't anymore a one hit, no thought required, wonder.  It should always retain some value, though.  But that value can fluctuate dramatically.


Mon, 10/07/2013 - 02:00 | 4029556 chindit13
chindit13's picture

It's Sunday, so it must be time for a sermon and prayers of the faithful.  Yes, here it is, this time courtesy of the Right Reverand Simon Black and his Church of the Latter Day Hommes du Monde.  Preach it, Simon!  Dig deep, brothers and sisters.  Rid yourselves of that evil fiat.  Banish it to Kitco and Tulving and APMEX and Sprott, and in return (for $1359/oz plus shipping and handling), they will send you shiny slavation!  (That last word was a typo, but seeing that Ag tumbled from $48 to $18 while the preachers preached the same sermon, I decided to leave it in.)

Your "100%" is not quite correct, as there are, as we speak, 180 forms of fiat still in everyday use, able to be exchanged for goods and services worldwide.  What you meant to say is that every fiat that has died, has died.  Similarly, every human who has died (many were believers in there a correlation?), has also died.  Nelson Bunker Hunt was among them.

Go and have Craig Venter point out the gold gene, and your 5000 history has actual merit.  Absent that, your 5000 years of dead believers are fertilizing the ground next to 4500 years of folks who believed in a flat Earth.

Question:  when Gordon Brown was dumping BoE gold a dozen years ago, and when the SNB was halving its gold holdings a decade ago, that was the proverbial "buy" signal.  Why has the "fade'em" signal been turned off with regard to Central Banks?  Also, when Ma and Pa Chan buy a 400 sq ft, 3 BR apt in Shanghai for $500K, and are viewed as idiots for doing so, why are they to be applauded and emulated when they hit the local gold souks to buy?  Is that what is known as confirmation bias?

Long after I'm pushing daisies it may well be likely, even a near certainty, that society's belief in gold as a store of value will exceed its belief in the dollar as a store of value, but whether that means anything to me depends on whether I'm above ground when it happens.  What I do know is that anyone who has been holding PMs since 2011 has lost purchasing power relative to that much maligned fiat dollar, and that loss has been severe.  One's purchasing power, and hence wealth, doesn't give a shit where one bought, but only how wealth has changed over time.  That suggests, heaven forbid, that PMs are merely an asset class, and their value rises and falls according to whim.  They can be traded just as any other asset class. 

Ecclesiastes beat Jesse Livermore to the punch two thousand years ago.  To everything there is a season...a time to cast away stones, a time to gather stones together.

A hedge, okay.  Insurance, okay, too.  All-in is a bet, and luck ain't always a pretty lady.  Yes, I don't get it.  I'm willing to accept the consequences, however, and if I am wrong, at least I will know whose fault it really is and won't run screaming and gnashing teeth looking for someone else to blame for my error.

An echo chamber does no one good.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 09:00 | 4029769 N2OJoe
N2OJoe's picture

You have a few solid points, Chindit. I am searching for the other side of the argument myself, as I wish to consciously avoid such an echo chamber. However, the only actual arguments I see from that other side are:

A) The economy is doing great and/or improving (Compared to what?)

B) (Fake gov't calculated) "Inflation" is low.

Both of which are bald-faced lies. The only theories that make ANY sense, are those in favor of PM's.

If you have any links to websites or info which make any sense against the case for PM's, I would genuinely love to see them(not sarcasm).

Of course the Fed does have very powerful tools for control of the currency, but when the rest of the world is not only talking about dumping the dollar but actively implementing alternatives, that implies that the gig is nearly up regardless of the Fed's actions from here on out.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:43 | 4028591 Devotional
Devotional's picture

Hey, have you not heard the latest? The Euro is like "Gold" ... I mean, come on! If some Euro-fanatics say it in the comment section it must be true. After all, the Euro-fanatics know it all.

Say it 3 times: The Euro is like Gold (3x)


Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:48 | 4028605 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

I own some Euros which are gold. Austrian Phils.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:48 | 4028609 Devotional
Devotional's picture

Nice one Dr No :)

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:46 | 4028595 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

"Have you ever noticed, for example, that investors are often only interested in buying some stock or asset when its price is going up?"

Uhmmm, that is the best time to buy. Would you rather buy on the way down? That's the fastest way to go broke. Buy when going up, sell when going down.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 20:01 | 4028803 auric1234
auric1234's picture

How do you go broke by buying something cheap?


Sun, 10/06/2013 - 23:20 | 4029333 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

When it gets cheaper.

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 18:07 | 4039443 auric1234
auric1234's picture

How do they force you to sell at the cheaper price?


Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:46 | 4028599 maskone909
maskone909's picture

Alot of Talk about gold moving east. Howver, i have to ask, is the phyz moving east or is the leasing contracts moving east? Would cent banks actually move the yellow stuff over there? Wouldnt the cultural differences between western and eastern societies be just too much to compromise? I cant picture our western gangster errr bankster friends thriving in such environments.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:57 | 4028627 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Hopefully the Chinese aren't stupid enough to buy into more US paper promises. You'd thunk they'd learned their lesson after buying up all that Treasury toliet paper.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:03 | 4028636 maskone909
maskone909's picture

To be honest they should have bought more. Think of it like this; giving a credit card to An irresponsible teenager. Only the teenager is addicted to crystal meth and will surely die once they go into withdraw. Only the withdraws are really interest rates rising.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:50 | 4028764 Constitutional ...
Constitutional Republic's picture

maskone909. This may answer your question:

BTW, the Swiss and Italian authorities are after JPM and GS for manipulating FX and interest rates. People forget that the BIS is multinational. Steal from a poor man, and he may starve. Steal from a rich man, and he will exact revenge. Blankfein and Dimon will be chained to their desks for eternity to fix the problems they made or punishment may come in court. Interesting times...


Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:51 | 4028773 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Who is left that would be stupid enough to buy US paper? The Fed, that's who as they are the last buyer of recourse. 

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:09 | 4028648 Peachfuzz
Peachfuzz's picture

phyz seems to be moving east. I'm told that under bretton woods a deal was struck with certain oil rich nations in which they would exchange their oil cheaply for dollars in exchange for cheap gold (also priced in dollars). This was done through the backdoor of the LBMA, where the gold was laundered. At some point in time the asians became aware of this and started to help themselves. Nothing was done about them butting into the deal (presumably because they were taking a small slice of the pie, or perhaps because they were buying the debt of the nation who struck the deal).

   Central banks don't have to move the stuff over there. They can simply lease their gold to bullion banks which will then sell it on the open market and turn a profit with the cash. The idea works until it doesn't ( and it doesn't when the price of gold at lease end exceeds the price when it was sold into the market) at which point they must short sell and play paper games to manipulate down the price of gold in order to buy it back and fulfill the lease (think Bundesbank and the seven year return time). This wouldn't necessarily be a problem when times are good, but when times are bad, and every c.b. prints money, folks are reluctant to let go of their gold for any amount of worthless paper. At that point when the price is manipulated downward (miscalc on part of C.B. strategy) phyz is snapped up by strong hands which don't necessarily include the bullion bank that leased out the gold. When there is no more gold to be had, force majeure is declared, all contracts are settled in cash, and the jig is up. Because honesty and integrity are not requirements for this, paper charades, endless propaganda, and asymetrical warfare ensue in an effort to continue their little song and dance.

(These are not original ideas from me, you can learn more by seeking out Another, Friend of Another, and FOFOA for more detailed info)

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:20 | 4028689 maskone909
maskone909's picture

So essentially the paper contracts are moving east, not the phyz? And the jig is up once the owners step up and demand delivery?
Im assuming that is why there is such emphasis placed on the jp margan vault being located near the fed building among alternative media?

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:46 | 4028756 Peachfuzz
Peachfuzz's picture

Paper games stop at the lbma, phyz heads east in large quantities (note that the oil producing nations get their's at any cost to western nations involved in the agreement, i.e. endless war)

Yeah, jigs up when folks stand for delivery (currently 52 paper claims to every ounce of gold in the comex system). Your assumption is correct, it is also important to note that they are the ones having trouble keeping gold in the vault. If Dr. Roberts is correct in his assessment that the US will use a preemptive nuclear attack to maintain dollar hegemony, why wouldn't they play paper games to drive down the price of gold so they could fill the vaults of the fed reserve with freshly printed currency currently backed by nothing? food for thought.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 01:38 | 4029537 LMLP
LMLP's picture

Paper games stop when there's only 1 kilo physical bars left in circulation........

Thankyou PBOC for the slow cleansing and testing of the global physical stack and for being the voice of reason by calling on the river..... 


Once theres no ounces to deliver we'll have reached the inflection point... till then...RIP IT!

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:49 | 4028604 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Money = Credit

Therefore a reduction of total credit is deflationary and will strengthen the dollar.  A stronger dollar means fewer of them are needed to purchase commodities (including gold).  The FEDs massive inflation of its balance sheet is only a harbinger of a larger collapse in credit.  Once the economy reaches a point where the debt can no longer be serviced there will be massive defaults.  It started in mortgages (which continues to deflate), is spreading to municipalities (aka Detroit, Stockton, etc...), student loans and coming soon will be entire states such as IL and New Jersey defaulting on debt and pension obligations.  The edifice is extremely shaky and the FED will not be able to support it without threatening the solvency of the USG.  Deflation is baked in the cake.


Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:56 | 4028625 maskone909
maskone909's picture

The m2 chart provided by the st louis fed is quite astounding and supports the deflation thesis. What is happening really is a huge lie. They are doing what ever they can to prop up gov spending. As the brics develop exponentially, more and more money is needed to prop up our inefficient system to compete. It has nothing to do with what they claim- which is the so called liquidity. Its really about buying treasuries to buy muscle to punk everyone else

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:48 | 4028768 xtop23
xtop23's picture

"Gold is money, and nothing else. Everything else is credit."

                                                        - J.P. Morgan

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 21:20 | 4029025 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Yeah, but what's his current opinion?

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 23:51 | 4029384 Muc Metals
Muc Metals's picture

Sorry to say that J.P. Morgan didn't say this.

J.P. Morgan said:  "Money is gold, and nothing else"

"Money is gold, and nothing else” was said by John Pierpont (J. P.) Morgan
on December 19, 1912 at the Pujo Committee of the House of Representatives
that was investigating the power of Wall Street.
Morgan’s statement was featured in newspapers the next day.



Mon, 10/07/2013 - 02:09 | 4029560 xtop23
xtop23's picture

Thanks for the exact verbage and link Muc.

As for ole JP....I think the bankster's pos corpse can stand being misquoted. The gist of it was there.


Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:53 | 4028613 shutdown
shutdown's picture

25% of your portfolio in gold isn't enough. Try for 50%. But don't wait too long. 

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:55 | 4028616 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

Bill Murphy and have been fighting a decade-long battle against the Gold Cartel. Recently the CFTC declared that there was no evidence of a conspiracy to fix silver prices. That decision left Bill Murphy dumfounded but not surprised. After all, who do you think they’ve been busy fixing precious metals prices for anyway. But eventually their luck is going to run out and judging from the Comex inventories that day is getting ever closer. The real question is what market is going to be left standing once the inevitable event occurs?

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 18:57 | 4028623 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

If I were issuing bonds, I would issue them in the most infaltionary currency I could find. Hmmmmmm, the renminbi....yeah, that'll work. How many suckers can we find to suck 'em up!

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:06 | 4028639 Paul Thomason
Paul Thomason's picture

Here is a good video that explains what is going on with gold technically - 'The Generational Bull Market In Gold'

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:08 | 4028649 KingdomKum
KingdomKum's picture

we few,   we happy few,   we band of silver holders  .  .  .

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 20:12 | 4028838 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

We band of buggered.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:11 | 4028656 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

I adhere to the foot theory of investment. If you can't drop it on your foot, or you can't stand on it, it's worthless.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:13 | 4028658 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

So the real change to watch for is ... ?

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:15 | 4028662 Rimon
Rimon's picture

Let's see.. Soros is bearish on gold and Azerbaijan is bullish.. Who shall I bet my money on in this one? hmmm...

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:28 | 4028701 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

If the Russians, the Chinese and a few others rebranded their holdings of US dollars into a new reserve currency backed by gold and then refused to accept further US dollars, they could cause some serious damage.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 23:03 | 4029305 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

I just don't think that will happen with the Chinese. If we go, Europe is also fucked, probably vise versa as well. But either way, the Chinese need us buying their cheap shit for as long as possible. I am sure they grow tired of being paid in increasingly worthless US dollars/debt, but I can't see them crashing is or helping to do so for the very reason that they need us. Without us to sell their cheap shit to, all those factories are sitting idle, and a billion screaming china men no longer have jobs. Not some thing the Chinese govt wants.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 23:16 | 4029328 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

There is some merit to what you say, but if America goes belly up, China can start making stuff just for herself and suppliers while Australia and Brazil will be supplying materials for a lot less to reflect the end products'value.

Or to put things differently if  America sank under the waves, the world would have a lot more resources available per head to play with.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:28 | 4028703 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Investment tips from the Azerbaijan State Oil Fund. Jeez, why do I keep reading this Simon Black's apcray.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:31 | 4028720 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

When the crooks are out of gold to rerererehypothecate, they just steal it back from the people, and start over again.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:40 | 4028740 Constitutional ...
Constitutional Republic's picture

Gold, the world's oldest continuous currency, store of value, protection against inflation and deflation. Add silver sister.

I agree with James Sinclair: gold is for savings; fiat is for transactions. GOTS. We are witnessing the slow collapse of the latest fiat system, just as all other versions collapsed in every part of the world. History rhymes rather than repeats exactly.

I dislike usury, this current debt as money system overloaded with unpayable otc derivatives, greater than all world gdp combined. However, I dislike spendthrifts even more: those who benefit from the system, and only squeal when the debt is due.

Hope all is well with you and yours, Simon. Always a pleasure to read your point of view, whether I agree completely or not. The world is a contest of ideas, and no one is blameless, except children.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:42 | 4028744 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Whoever has the most drones makes the rules. Until that changes, nothing changes.......

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 20:03 | 4028810 Constitutional ...
Constitutional Republic's picture

Drones cost money, real money. 'In God we trust.' Everyone else pays cash, real money. The fools in CONgress have betrayed the American people by taking the rich man's fiat. Debt is servitude, sooner or later.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 19:47 | 4028758 A82EBA
A82EBA's picture

what became of soros massive short position?

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 20:01 | 4028793 Constitutional ...
Constitutional Republic's picture

Short paper gold contracts, long physical gold, the cheeky ol' devil. 'Wicked smaht', just to use the local accent.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 20:05 | 4028819 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Fuckin gold rocks.

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 20:22 | 4028868 Constitutional ...
Constitutional Republic's picture

...and rolls from West to East. 

Sun, 10/06/2013 - 20:44 | 4028931 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Re: West to East


The asain dynasties are getting their rightful gold back by hook or by crook. The criminal cabal that is part and parcel of the Federal Reserve Note is going down and they know it. In fact, they've been in a state of slow motion surrender for some time now. The end is near... for the bad guys.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 05:27 | 4029663 BigSimes
BigSimes's picture

I am a believer, check out the Debt Ceiling Gold Price Prediction.
As B-A Baracus would say, "I pity the fool!"

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 10:29 | 4030115 LongPAU
LongPAU's picture

Why is anyone surprised that Au isn't being accurately priced by a FUBAR closed market?

What *is* being priced accurately? Besides Tesla, I mean?

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 11:14 | 4030331 moonstears
moonstears's picture

"What *is* being priced accurately? Besides Tesla, I mean?"


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