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BofAML Says This Is The Line In The Sand For S&P 500 Downside Risk

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today's JPY-driven opening ramp pulled the S&P 500 off its key trendline but is fading now as once again hope turns to despair and reality. As BofAML notes, while other US equity indices remain modestly constructive after a 2-day rally on nothing, the S&P 500 remains poised for a downside test (and likely break) of its 11-month trendline at 1666 (exposing the August 28th lows at 1627).

 

 

Chart: BofAML

 

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Mon, 10/07/2013 - 14:36 | 4031248 rguptatx
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all baked in? bullish? or, bullshit?

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 14:54 | 4031326 ZippyBananaPants
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The only line in the sand should be a piss line in the sand in front of these bankers beach homes

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 15:19 | 4031424 knukles
knukles's picture

Low years ago was 666
Now, the trend break is 1666
Ah, the mark of the beast, the Anti-Christ's totem....

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 14:37 | 4031257 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

EVeryone is planning for a selloff.  You know it will not happen

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 14:41 | 4031272 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

A good many are planning for a rally too. Somebody will be wrong.  

 

 

 

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 14:44 | 4031284 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Well, one thing is for sure.  The monetization continues...

 

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

 

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 15:14 | 4031416 Muppet Pimp
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Slewie?  The Pi-rat?

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 16:34 | 4031755 yogibear
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Fed's monitizing continues until the US dollar blows. 

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 14:57 | 4031346 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Oh yes it will!  They're covering their butts here.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 15:02 | 4031366 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Planning for a selloff' how exactly? I don't see it.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 14:42 | 4031262 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

11-month trendline at 1666

 

The short satan ETF. 

 

Are we do for a Santa rally or Satan Rally? 

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 14:40 | 4031268 Devotional
Devotional's picture

how will this thing crash with the FED pumping in billions? oh please.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 15:06 | 4031368 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc131007.htm

 

A follow the fed strategy has failed twice before in recent memory. True, the Fed has NEVER printed like this before. So, either a bigger crash or a bigger ramp.  

 

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 15:55 | 4031621 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

It won't. It's all Bullshit!!!

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 16:38 | 4031762 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The Fed's supporting the show. The only thing it knows how to do is print. 

Pull the US dollar as the reserve currency is when the real SHTF moment occurs. The loss of control by the Fed moment.

 

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 14:39 | 4031271 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

One thousand and 666! the Devil, Satan, Beelzebub, Lucifer ....

Hah, you get the idea.

Good thing Don Kohn's maybe-ness has the machines grinding higher now.

No worries, the machines will save us.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 14:40 | 4031275 Dollar Bill Hiccup
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Can you program an algo to run Revelations or the Kabbala?

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 15:01 | 4031358 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Or thousands of other old fable books.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 14:45 | 4031288 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

S&P500 hourly showed more upside on Friday - instead we got our drop and recover.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-hourly-closes-channel-resistance-...

 

We use three indexes to formulate a bias - Dow, NASDAQ and S&P.  All three have diverged.  Dow is weakest, NASDAQ strongest.

 

Divergences like these often occur at major tops (and bottoms).

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 14:51 | 4031313 TaperProof
TaperProof's picture

it will rally when a deal is made, BofA CEO met with 'bama didn't he?  Maybe they know for certain there will be a deal and when.

..or maybe thats what they want us to think to try and control the market slide

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 15:03 | 4031316 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Cue the talking heads equating the stock market to the economy, and the "horrible consequences" if they don't blow more money on Wall Street by raising the debt limit.

Never any consequences for anyone or anything but us 99%'s.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 15:01 | 4031353 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Line is the sand for S&P downside' is 2% or so lower than all-time record highs?

Worst fake manufactured crisis ever.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 16:02 | 4031659 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

Maybe it's a "red line".

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 15:05 | 4031371 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  And just like clockwork the PPT comes in to hold the ES 50day avg. @ 1675ish. Excuse me while I go pry my fingernails off...

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 15:05 | 4031377 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

ES not even in any danger of closing below a 50 day avg for fucks sake.....worst fake crisis ever.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 15:10 | 4031390 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

If Barry doent get his way it will crash. If he does it will crash.If Ben doubles down it will rally. simple as that.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 15:23 | 4031444 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"...if Ben doubles down..."  You had me at Double-Ds.  ;-)

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 15:12 | 4031395 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You mean if this gets 'really bad'...we might even see 2 month ago market levels, with ES -10 lower than here? My gawd!

That's simply unacceptable....I demand that more generations further down the line be put in total debt slavery to stop this travesty of a possible lower market!

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 15:14 | 4031413 traderjj57
traderjj57's picture

and now the running of the shorts, 3:15 to 4:00 est, what a show what a show

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 15:53 | 4031610 bagehot99
bagehot99's picture

So a drop back to 1675 means what? Only a 13% yoy gain?

Terrible. Those goddamed republican thugs.

Mon, 10/07/2013 - 16:25 | 4031738 soopy
soopy's picture

Lol Dan Brown could have been an analyst.

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