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12 Ominous Warnings Of What A US Default Would Mean For The Global Economy

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

A U.S. debt default that lasts for more than a couple of days could potentially cause a financial crash unlike anything that the world has ever seen before.  If the U.S. government purposely wanted to damage the global financial system, the best way that they could do that would be to default on U.S. debt obligations.  A U.S. debt default would cause stocks to crash, would cause bonds to crash, would cause interest rates to soar wildly out of control, would cause a massive credit crunch, and would cause a derivatives panic that would be absolutely unprecedented.  And that would just be for starters.  But don't just take my word for it.  These are the things that top financial experts all over the planet are saying will happen if there is an extended U.S. debt default.

Because they are so close together, the "government shutdown" and the "debt ceiling deadline" are being confused by many Americans.

As I wrote about the other day, the "partial government shutdown" that we are experiencing right now is pretty much a non-event.  Yeah, some national parks are shut down and some federal workers will have their checks delayed, but it is not the end of the world.  In fact, only about 17 percent of the federal government is actually shut down at the moment.  This "shutdown" could continue for many more weeks and it would not affect the global economy too much.

On the other hand, if the debt ceiling deadline (approximately October 17th) passes without an agreement that would be extremely dangerous.

And if the U.S. government is eventually forced to start delaying interest payments on U.S. debt (which could potentially happen as soon as November), that would be absolutely catastrophic.

Once again, just don't take my word for it.  The following are 12 very ominous warnings about what a U.S. debt default would mean for the global economy...

#1 Gerald Epstein, a professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst: "If the US does default, that will make the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy look like a cakewalk"

#2 Tim Bitsberger, a former Treasury official under President George W. Bush: "If we miss an interest payment, that would blow Lehman out of the water"

#3 Peter Tchir, founder of New York-based TF Market Advisors: "Once the system starts to break down related to settlement and payments, then liquidity disappears, as we saw after Lehman"

#4 Bill Isaac, chairman of Cincinnati-based Fifth Third Bancorp: "We can’t even imagine all the things that might happen, just like Henry Paulson couldn’t imagine all the bad things that might happen if he let Lehman go down"

#5 Jim Grant, founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer: "Financial markets are all confidence-based. If that confidence is shaken, you have disaster."

#6 Richard Bove, VP of research at Rafferty Capital Markets: "If they seriously default on the debt, what we're really talking about is a depression"

#7 Chinese vice finance minister Zhu Guangyao: "The U.S. is clearly aware of China's concerns about the financial stalemate [in Washington] and China's request for the US to ensure the safety of Chinese investments."

#8 The U.S. Treasury Department: "A default would be unprecedented and has the potential to be catastrophic: credit markets could freeze, the value of the dollar could plummet, U.S. interest rates could skyrocket, the negative spillovers could reverberate around the world, and there might be a financial crisis and recession that could echo the events of 2008 or worse"

#9 Goldman Sachs: "We estimate that the fiscal pull-back would amount to 9pc of GDP. If this were allowed to occur, it could lead to a rapid downturn in economic activity if not reversed quickly"

#10 Simon Johnson, former chief economist for the IMF: "It would be insane to default, but it’s no longer a zero-percent probability"

#11 Warren Buffett about the potential of a debt default: "It should be like nuclear bombs, basically too horrible to use"

#12 Bloomberg: "Anyone who remembers the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. little more than five years ago knows what a global financial disaster is. A U.S. government default, just weeks away if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling as it now threatens to do, will be an economic calamity like none the world has ever seen."

A U.S. debt default could be the trigger for the "nightmare scenario" that so many people have been writing about in recent years.  In fact, it could greatly accelerate the timetable for the inevitable economic collapse that is coming.  A recent Yahoo article described some of the things that we would likely see in the event of an extended U.S. debt default...

A default would upend money markets, destroy bond funds, slam the brakes on lending, cause interest rates to spiral, make our banks insolvent, and deal a blow to our foreign trading partners and creditors around the globe; all of which would throw the U.S. and the world into economic disarray.

And of course stocks would crash big time.  Deutsche Bank's David Bianco believes that if the U.S. government starts missing interest payments on U.S. Treasury bonds, we could see the S&P 500 go down to 850 by the end of the year.

There would be almost immediate panic among ordinary Americans as well.  In fact, it is being reported that some banks are already stuffing their ATM machines will extra cash just in case...

With just 10 days left to raise the debt ceiling and congressional Republicans threatening to force the government to default on its obligations, banks are taking some dramatic steps to prepare for the economic chaos that would result should the brinkmanship continue.

 

The Financial Times reports that one major U.S. bank has started stuffing its automatic teller machines with extra cash in preparation for a possible bank run from panicked depositors. The New York Times reports that another bank is weighing a plan to advance funds to customers who rely on Social Security and other government payments that could stop in the event of a default.

Let's hope that cooler heads will prevail and that a U.S. debt default will be avoided.

Unfortunately, it appears that the Democrats are absolutely determined not to be moved from their current position a single inch.  They have decided to refuse to negotiate and demand that the Republicans give them every single thing that they want.

And who can really blame them for adopting that strategy?  After all, it has certainly worked in the past.  Whenever Democrats have stood united and have refused to give a single inch, the Republicans have always freaked out and caved in eventually.

Will this time be any different?

The funny thing is that once upon a time, Barack Obama was adamantly against any increase in the debt limit.  The following comes courtesy of Zero Hedge...

Obama Debt Ceiling

But now Obama says that it is so unreasonable to be opposed to a debt limit increase that any negotiations are out of the question.

So which Obama is right?

If the Democrats will not negotiate, a debt default could still be avoided if the Republicans give in.

And that is what they always do, right?

Perhaps not this time.  Just check out what John Boehner had to say on Sunday...

"I, working with my members, decided to do this in a unified way," the speaker said -- with demands to defund, delay or otherwise alter the Affordable Care Act.

 

Boehner had expected that the Obamacare fight would come during the next vote to raise the debt ceiling, “but, you know, working with my members, they decided, let's do it now," he said. "And the fact is, this fight was going to come, one way or another. We’re in the fight. We don't want to shut the government down. We’ve passed bills to pay the troops. We passed bills to make sure the federal employees know that they're going to be paid throughout this.”

 

"You've never seen a more dedicated group of people who are thoroughly concerned about the future of our country," he said of House Republicans. "It is time for us to stand and fight."

But will the Republicans really stand and fight?

In the past, betting on the intestinal fortitude of the Republican Party has been a loser every single time.

So we'll see.  Boehner insists that this time is different.  Boehner insists that he is not going to fold like a 20 dollar suit this time.  In fact, when he was asked if the U.S. government was headed toward a debt default if Obama continued to refuse to negotiate, Boehner made the following statement...

"That's the path we're on."

The mainstream media has certainly been placing most of the blame at the feet of the Republicans, but at least the U.S. House of Representatives has been trying to get an agreement reached.  The House has voted 26 times since the Senate last voted.  Harry Reid has essentially shut the Senate down until the Republicans fold and give the Democrats exactly what they want.

The funny thing is that this could probably be solved very easily.  If the Democrats agreed to a one year delay to the individual mandate, the Republicans would probably jump at it.  And because of epic technical failures, hardly anyone has been able to get signed up for Obamacare anyway.  So a one year delay would give the Obama administration time to get their act together.

Unfortunately, the Democrats seem absolutely obsessed with the idea that they will not give the Republicans one single inch.  They seem to believe that this will be to their political benefit.

But this is a very dangerous game that they are playing.  The U.S. government must roll over 441 billion dollars of short-term debt between October 18th and November 15th.

If a debt ceiling increase is not in place by that time, it will send interest rates soaring.  Borrowing costs for state and local governments, corporations, and ordinary Americans will go through the roof and economic activity will be hit really hard.

And as detailed above, we could potentially be looking at a financial crash that would make 2008 look like a Sunday picnic.

So let us hope for a political solution soon.  That will at least kick the can down the road for a little bit longer.

If a debt default were to happen before the end of this year, that would bring a tremendous amount of future economic pain into the here and now, and the consequences would likely be far greater than any of us could possibly imagine.

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Tue, 10/08/2013 - 21:04 | 4036506 g'kar
g'kar's picture

Who gives a crap about the global bs, impeach Obama and start to fix our own sorry asses.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 21:09 | 4036527 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

12 warnings

brought to you by

goering PR

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 21:10 | 4036529 Arius
Arius's picture

if it was that bad why isnt the stock market even budging?  none from the players with skin in the game seems to be scared at all ... they are happy as clams :) 

besides the same talk was before the government shutdown ... well they brought back almost 85% of government as essential, with interns and some ZH losers remaining in furloughs.

i am skeptic about all this scary talk ... everything will be fine

now we have Advanced Macroeconomic Tools

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 21:18 | 4036538 g'kar
g'kar's picture

"if it was that bad why isnt the stock market even budging?"

 

The big boys got out already.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 21:20 | 4036557 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

The US gov't is going to default. It is not if, but when. Get it over with. My guess is they knew this was coming and are preparing for the short of the century.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 21:23 | 4036577 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Then it is intentional and treasonous........

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 21:38 | 4036641 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

i don't believe they'll default. but if they do, it'll be to crash the economy and get all the joo central bankers off the hook as morons will all be too busy blaming the red/blue team who are just muppets.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 23:10 | 4036882 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Boner has already made the statement that he will not let the US default on it's debt. Everything after that is just theatrics. 

 

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 01:16 | 4037091 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

It's all bullshit.

 

None of these assholes has a clue as to what will happen, and they don't care.

Neither does anybody else.

Life will go on and the polticians will still posture.

Fuck them.

'

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 22:16 | 4036738 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

And who do you think will prosecute them?

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 22:38 | 4036800 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

There is always a reckoning........

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 22:59 | 4036829 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

Default, denial, defunct.

Denial, default, defunct. 

Defunct, denial, default.

Any apply anytime and we're still derfucked.

 

 

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 00:53 | 4037062 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

The Fed can buy billions in treasuries each month, but it can't pay the interest due on Oct. 18th? If this happens, it will be because they wanted a crash. By the way, all 12 of the sources quoted can suck me, except for Jim Grant. And notice how he's the least hyperbolic of the bunch?

Jim Willie oct. 6th youtube predicts doubling of QE due to foreign bond sales  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pny7v62YSE

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 04:46 | 4037218 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Shhhhhhhhhh...

 

He also said that the Derivative CDS failed in July. That's why the Banksters met with the Sodomite in Chief.

 

This is all staged theater to distract the muppets, even on ZH, from what is really happening.

 

Shhhhhhhh...Just short Treasuries and do not let the muppets know.

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 00:53 | 4037057 myshadow
myshadow's picture

NYT  Sunday spelled it out....

 


? s

 

In Politics by Robyn PennacchiaOct 8, 2013
The 5 creepiest things about how the Koch brothers engineered the shutdown

This weekend, The New York Times revealed how the Koch Brothers and Reagan Attorney General Ed Meese engineered this here shutdown we’re dealing with right now, and how they’d been planning it ever since Obama was reelected. I wasn’t especially shocked by it, myself. Hell, half of the Tea Party people in the House actually campaigned on it. Which is why I have been annoyed as hell with the whole “Oh, well, it’s really both parties at fault here!” line of reasoning that some people have been trying to take.

Anyway, in case you’re not hep to it, months and months before the shutdown happened, Freedomworks, one of the fake astroturfing groups set up by The Brothers Koch, with the assistance of Reagan Attorney General Ed Meech, created a blueprint for how it was all supposed to go down. They also created a “tool kit” for dealing with it. And they had the chutzpah to actually post these things online, in plain view of god and everyone.

The whole thing gives me the heebeejeebees. So, for your edification, here are the 5 creepiest things about it.

1. The fact that it has been in the works since February.

Just getting this out of the way now, because that is just seriously creepy as hell. The fact that their actual plan was to shut down the government, put people out of jobs, leave kids without HeadStart, and generally just screw everything up for everyone in order to get their own way is absolutely frightening and incredibly selfish. Those people don’t matter? They’re not as important as you? All those sight-seeing veterans you’re so very concerned about–you didn’t think they’d be affected?

2. They actually told people what to Tweet. 

The key hashtags for this week are:

#DontFundIt

#MakeDCListen

#DefundObamacare

#ObamaCare

.@Senate_GOPs Stand with @TedCruz! #DontFundIt #MakeDCListen

.@LindseyGrahamSC Your vote for cloture was a vote to fund #ObamaCare #DontFundIt

.@TedCruz & .@SenMikeLee thank you for standing strong. #DontFundIt

Call both of your Senators today 202.224.3121 and ask them to delay #Obamacare. #DontFundIt #MakeDCListen

If all of Obama’s friends deserve #Obamacare waivers, don’t the rest of us deserve a one-year delay? #DontFundIt #MakeDCListen

#ObamaCare isn’t ready for Big Labor, Big Government, or Big Business, so they all got exemptions. What about the rest of us? #DontFundIt #MakeDCListen

Seriously, Tea Partiers. Your organizers think you’re so freaking dumb, and so likely to make spelling errors, that they made you a list of things to Tweet. Don’t you know when you’re being insulted?

3. They not only knew that the Republican Party would be blamed for the shutdown they engineered, they came up with talking points to repeat to the media in order to try to deflect said blame:

1. What happens when you shut down the government and you are blamed for it?
—> We are simply calling to fund the entire government except for the Affordable Care Act/Obamacare.

—> If Congress is willing to defund this terrible law and stand up for the American people, the American people will support them.

This is the exact response members of Congress have been giving to the media. It’s a ridiculous response and makes no sense whatsoever, but they’ve all been repeating it like it made some kind of sense. Now we see why.

The fact that they have been so open about their plans to shut down the government and are now trying to pretend that it’s totally not their fault is a classic example of pissing on someone’s leg and telling them it’s raining–it requires an unimaginable amount of chutzpah.

The first suggested response is basically the same thing as shooting someone during a robbery and then explaining to the judge that it’s really their fault because if they’d handed over their wallet you wouldn’t have had to shoot them.

You know what the second response reminds me of? When Charles J. Guiteau assassinated Garfield, he legitimately believed that he would be hailed as a hero. After he shot him, he yelled “I am Stalwart of the Stalwarts! Arthur is President now!” and he really, truly believed that instead of being sent to jail, he would be showered with praise. While he was in jail, he constantly made up stories about all the fan mail he was getting from admirers who were thrilled and delighted that he had shot the President. Of course, no such mail existed.

Pretending the whole world is on your side does not make it so.

4. This whole spiel about how it’s totally fine that people with pre-existing conditions don’t get to have health care:

3. What about the people with pre-existing conditions who cannot get health insurance without the Affordable Care Act/Obamacare?
—> Health insurance does not equal health care. There are several studies that show that patients on Medicaid have no noticeably improved health outcome over people who completely lack health insurance. After studying 800,000 patients, the study’s authors at the University of Virginia concluded that patients on Medicaid (a program that Obamacare greatly expands) are just as
likely, and sometimes more likely, to die than patients without any health insurance coverage.

Oh! Well then! There you go! I bet that’s why the Koch Brothers themselves don’t have health insurance, and why none of the Congressional Tea Party Republicans have health insurance! And probably why they don’t ever go to a doctor, because you could totally go to the doctor and die anyway, so why bother?

5. The End Game

This is not just about defunding the Affordable Care Act. This is about getting rid of Medicare and Medicaid, it is about privatizing the Veteran’s Administration, it is about getting rid of the EPA, the Department of Energy, the Department of Education. All the things on the Koch Brothers wishlist. Why? Because they’re rich dudes who want to be more rich. And they want the American people to help them. Once all those things are privatized we’ll need corporate solutions to fill the services they provide. And guess who can provide those corporate solutions? The Koch brothers have engineered an entire “grassroots movement” dedicated to helping them get more rich at the expense of the American people. It’s straight up bonkers.

The vision that Charles and David Koch have for America is only good for people who are as rich and powerful as they are. What they are engineering isn’t just a shutdown, it is an America where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, and where no one has a say in their government unless they have piles of cash.'

 

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 00:57 | 4037066 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

Was this garbage printed as a news story? Probably.

So there are two business leaders in the entire country that aren't all for total socialism and endless debt and devaluation? And they dare to force the issue on the government's _utter insolvency_? Can't say I blame them. (FU NYT).

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 01:15 | 4037090 CrownedCoke
CrownedCoke's picture

Do you work for ACORN? Damn.

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 02:12 | 4037125 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"NYT  Sunday spelled it out...." - that's where you veered off, right there.

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 03:01 | 4037160 butchtrucks
butchtrucks's picture

Republicans:  Can I burn down your house.

Obama:  No

 

Republicans:  Ok then - only the second floor.

Obama: No

 

Republicans:  Ok - just the garage.

Obama: No

 

Republicans:  OK lets sit down and discuss what we are going to burn down.

Obama: No

 

Republicans:  'YOU WON'T NEGOTIATE!'

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 04:24 | 4037206 F-Tipp
F-Tipp's picture

While both parties are just as bad, your characterization of this argument is childish at best.

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 04:55 | 4037224 butchtrucks
butchtrucks's picture

If you really believe that you are beyond childish - infantile in fact.

 

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 04:27 | 4037207 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Anytime the lead involves the coke bros, I know it's a progressive shill at the other end of the wire.

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 08:22 | 4037402 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Plant ^^

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 06:04 | 4037258 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Nah, see her, now, the Koch brothers don't want to privatize everything because they're rich and greedy and want more for themselves, though, surely, that's a part of it. They want to get rid of these social programs because they don't work and they're too expensive. SS and Medicare/Medicaid are BROKE, they suck money out of the lives of millions and they are "social" programs, as in SOCIALISM, which has no place in a democratic, capitalistic society.

Without Medicare/Medicaid, would the poor just die because they couldn't afford health care? NO. The free market, if allowed to operate without restriction, would handle their health needs to a very large extent.

Here, for all the dumbasses who think we can't go on without Medicaid, is a simple example: Suppose there was a big flea market and there is one guy buying and selling used LPs, but he'll only take those in excellent, near-mint condition, turning away all the people who had perfectly good vintage LPs that were anywhere from OK to really beat up. These people just keep walking away, shaking their heads. They wanted a little money for their records, but this guy would give them nothing. And, another guy starts buying and selling near-perfect LPs, turning away the rest. WHAT WOULD A CAPITALIST DO?

There's an empty space at the flea market, and a smart businessman, sets up a booth and starts buying all the not-so-perfect LPs for a little money, and the sellers are happy. Then he starts selling them at a decent profit, and buyers are happy. The businessman isn't making as much as the other dealers, maybe, but, he's doing OK.

Same for health care. The rich will get the best health care their money can afford and people will fight cats and dogs to get their business. Underneath that is this whole huge untapped market of people with limited means who need health care. Not the best in the world, just adequate, affordable health care. WHAT WOUDL A CAPITALIST DO?

It's a no-fucking-brainer. Get the fucking government out of the way and the free market will solve everything. If the health care system fell apart tomorrow, you can bet yer ass that the next day there would be people scrambling to set up clinics, complete with doctors, nurses and payment plans for the literally millions of people who need care (notice, NOT "coverage"), and I'd probably be one of them, because doctors are doctors, not businessmen. They need businessmen and women to help run the business, fund it, advertise the business, and grow it.

The government screws up business in this country on a daily basis and charges for the fuck-up. Crash the system and Americans will build a better one in six months or less.

Fucking socialists.

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 07:18 | 4037315 butchtrucks
butchtrucks's picture

At first I thought this was some sort of parody - but then it dawned on me - you actually beliveve the shit you are writing! It really does make me despair for the US education system, No wonder the country is in such trouble.

And BTW - can you please stop sucking the Koch brother's Kocks - it's downright unseemly. 

 

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 08:26 | 4037415 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

1) Healthcare isn't a flexible commodity like LP records (please, give me a reason to show you why!)

2) The Koch Bros don't give a rat's ass if it works or doesn't as long as they can make a buck at it (especially if that buck would've been made by someone else for less)

3) The free market is a tool, but not one that can solve every problem on Earth

Fucking idiot "capitalists"; you deserve your masters, your leashes, and your lot in life.

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 07:19 | 4037316 jughead
jughead's picture

Fact:  The House sent multiple CRs to the Senate, each a compromise over the previous, each voted down by the Senate...including one that called for conference.

You paid partisan hacks from both parties are morons. 

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 21:39 | 4036638 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Monthly tax receipts are sufficient to continue to pay the interest on debt service and failure to raise the debt limit doesn't preclude rolling over maturing debt.  Consequently, there should not be a default.  However, government spending other than social security and medicare/aid would be close to nil.  So all the fire and brimstone about "default" is just theatrics to excite the ignorant.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 22:19 | 4036753 DavidC
DavidC's picture

FL_Conservative,
Spot on.

Apparently tax income will cover interest payments ten times over. Default only occurs if the interest payments aren't paid, hence there will be NO default.

Kabuki theatre.

DavidC

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 03:00 | 4037155 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"Consequently, there should not be a default."

The USG may not automatically default on its debt immediately, but it would not be able to extend its borrowing and continue its deficit spending - which has been massive - like a trillion $$+/year since obama got elected.  So there would be an immedate 25% reduction in goobermint spending capacity at the rate of approx. 1 Trillion - which is 1/16 of the entire US economy.  Futhermore, all the other obligations, invoices and debts owed by the government to millions of businesses would be affected, as they got shuffled around and as the government was forced into their 25% haircut.  Robbing peter to pay paul would be happening all over the place - and many, many will not get paid on time, if it drug out - meaning the USG would begin massively defaulting on its contractual obligations with businesses all over the place.  How will that affect T-bill/interest rates, and viscous circle, the interest obligations of the defaulting USG?  Finally, you've got to believe that federal departments would start to triage and fight for who is more vital, more essential, more necessary - food stamps or F35s - etc.

Anyhow, while the debt interest payments may not default, if it drags on, there will be a lot of defaulting going on.  Clearly, the USG has massively over-obligated itself.

While this would force a kind of fiscal sanity - right into the heart of our insane federal governement - it's just too much, and the pressure will be unbelievable to stop.

Besides - it doesn't address the true source of our pain/evil  -the Federal Reserve and its bank sponsors, and fiat/debt based money.  And so they'll fold - the question is  - when?

One day - in the not too distant future - there will be no choice to simply "raise the debt ceiling" to "save" the economy - as the markets themselves will collapse under the ponzi scheme of fiat/debt based money and banksta/wall street greed played out over the last century.  Prepare accordingly.  This is just a little taster of that day to come.

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 05:19 | 4037241 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

What a failure of Raising the Debt Ceiling will do is to force is the Federal Reserve to increase MBS Purchases from the Government. Since the Government "owns" the MBS they can sell them to the Federal Reserve Bank in order to raise Revenues. It has a willing buyer, the Federal Reserve.

 

And they nominate Janet Yellen today as she will be more than a willing stooge to do this.

 

Since Treasuries cannot be sold as the Government has no authority to create new debt it does allow that the Government can sell "assets", toxic or not. So the Federal Reserve will be purchasing Treasuries from Foreigners and Private Owners. The Federal Reserve will be purchasing only MBS from the Government.

 

So QE must increase. There will be no taper. And Interest Rates on existing Treasuries should decrease as no new debt is being issued. The Dollar will STRENGTHEN as a result. (Everything that is opposite of what is expected.) These will be the Short Term results. This will be the final deflation before the Hyperinflationary inferno.

 

Get ready for a Quantitative Easing increase as the Fed increases its Balance Sheet with these Toxic Assets. This is a Cancer and the Government is eating itself from the inside out instead of getting its Fiscal House in order.

 

WHEN it implodes it will be spectacular. (It is no longer a matter of IF) Long Term it is guaranteed. They are taking the steps now to ensure it.

 

Prepare accordingly.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 21:22 | 4036568 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

Its important to live off of someone elses's dime.  NOT.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 22:09 | 4036720 Son of Captain Nemo
Tue, 10/08/2013 - 22:45 | 4036815 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Brought to you by Goebbels Media Group.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 21:31 | 4036607 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

No pain, no gain. Let the defaults begin.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 21:37 | 4036629 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

So is it still, "The best time ever to buy a house"?

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 22:15 | 4036733 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Yes, I've got a 15 sq ft cardboard box under an interstate bridge I'd like to sell ya.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 22:19 | 4036747 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Location, location, location. Which interstate, near the edge or in the most sheltered part, view of a river or just another stupid highway?

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 22:36 | 4036789 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

You pick the spot, I'll supply the cardboard box.

Did I mention it has indoor plumbing and walk-in closets?

And a loft you can turn into a home office for all those drug transactions you'll be making.

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 02:55 | 4037151 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

OMG, Loki! Yuo're gonna be priced out of th emarket if you don't jump in quick and grab something, anything. I mean you still have time, Loki, since houses are only up 300%-400% above normel at this point.

If you don't act  NOW, prices could revert to the norm and drop 50-60% back near normal, and you'd miss out.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 22:17 | 4036742 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

 

 

"A default would....make our banks insolvent"


"I'll have one McDebt Default sandwich with government cheese please..."

 

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 01:04 | 4037078 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

The markets are a joke. A sane system would ban every financial instrument that looks like a 'bet' and doesn't represent actual physical ownership of actual physical property.

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 05:31 | 4037244 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

They will NOT increase the Debt Limit.

 

There will be NO DEFAULT in the Short Term...next One to Three Years..

 

The Federal Reserve just accelerates the MBS purchases from the Government.

 

QE increases.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 23:43 | 4036957 FutureShock
FutureShock's picture

Obama has zero experience in any negotiating, budgets etc. Never a governor, nor a Mayor, or a business owner. This is the problem and the media fails to make this point. You can be book smart but anyone who is good at what they do has experience. He has a clue and is not stupid  but has no honed skills and past history to have learned from. Too bad this did not happen in the first term. Get Trump over there in the middle, he will negotiate the deal in a couple hours. 

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 01:27 | 4037098 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

Trump??

 

He couldn't scrape the feces out of his pants with a wet towel.

After he shit his pants, that is.

 

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 03:06 | 4037163 Canoe Driver
Canoe Driver's picture

And here we have yet another rube who thinks Obama runs the country.

Wed, 10/09/2013 - 09:35 | 4037175 fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

In Barry's speech he used the phrase "Govt. shutdown" but he also tried to introduce us to a new meme of "Economic shutdown".....

I reckon they are going to go for it and default, even if only for a day or two, just to show the 'merican people how damn important the USG should be to them and how, pretty please, will they now please, please, come back to work and keep paying the bills (and the food stamps and the unemplaoyment benefits) for everyone.

Cheers,

Fred

P.S Always think it funny Americans say:

He has a clue and is not stupid

He hasn't got a clue, as we say in UK, seems to make much more sense to me?! :)

Edit: just saw: "He could care less" below. So he could care less than he does now then?!?! Or is it he couldn't possibly care any less than he does now??!!

 

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 21:04 | 4036510 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

Obama does not feel other's pain. He could care less. He has a tee time to make. Anyway, his 50 million buck house in Hawaii is waiting for him along with his pension checks. Speaking fees will pay for a lot too. It's good to be king if you the king, for us serfs it is another matter all together.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 21:06 | 4036512 pot_and_kettle
pot_and_kettle's picture

My thinking is that if all of these dire warnings are out there, digested, then countermeasures to the above scenario are ready to be deployed. 

 

Whether those countermeasures involve expropriation or martial law is another story entirely..

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 21:06 | 4036513 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This guy Snyder takes the cake as the worst piece of garbage on this site, and I really think Simon Black is a giant piece of garbage. 

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