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Hilarious Charts Of The Day: IMF's "Growth Forecasts" Over Time
The chart below, showing the historical change in the IMF's periodic revisions of world growth and revised for today's just released latest World Economic Outlook, shows that much taxpayer money can be saved if the monetary fund's staff was replaced with dart-throwing chimps.
That the IMF saw 2013 world growth at 4.1% when the S&P500 was at 1,400 and now that it sees 2013 growth at the lowest ever in the series, 2.9%, when the S&P500 is just a whisker off its all time high is without comment.
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Some other funny charts.
US growth forecasts over time - mind the 2012 GDP-boosting revision:
China, the world's growth dynamo - big oops:
And, perhaps scariest of all, world trade.
No worries though, Bernanke is good for it.
And for some further amusement, here is what prominent economists are saying about the IMF's Economic Review:
“The IMF Economic Review is quickly becoming the premier outlet for context-based macroeconomic research. In doing so, it is providing a great service to policymakers and a source of inspiration to real-world driven researchers.”
- Ricardo J. Caballero, Ford International Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, MIT
“The IMF Economic Review is devoted to state-of-the-art research on the global economy. Given the Fund’s unique position on the front lines of surveillance and crisis management, anyone interested in international economic policy or in macroeconomics more generally will find this journal to be essential reading.”
- Maurice Obstfeld, Class of 1958 Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley
“The objective of the IMF Economic Review is to bring leading scholars, with cutting edge research, to the policy discussion. The first four issues of the Review have done exactly that. I am confident future issues of the Review will do the same.”
- Olivier J. Blanchard, Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF
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if you always only take a step half way to reality, will you ever get there?
They should let a pack of monkeys throwing darts predict growth instead. At least it would be funny and we'd save a ton of money on economist salaries.
They use a strategy reverse of mine. I predict the imminent collapse of the market again and again. I'm going to get it right one of these times if I keep trying. The stock market will collapse by the end of the year, count on it.
I'm going to make a prediction of my own: Sometime in the next 24 hours there will be an article on ZH about Puerto Rico.
The IMF doesn't miss it so many times in the same direction by chance. Forecast models don't work that way. It is obvious to anybody skilled in the art of modelling that so many misses in the same direction are irrefutable PROOF that the forecasts are NOT forecasts but politically driven statements of desire to manipulate perceptions. Dart throwing monkeys would be a lot more accurate for the simple reason that the outcome would be random and not manipulated up as it is now. CFTC is going after JPMorgan??? A war in Olympus? Us mortals will suffer
"Maurice Obstfeld, Class of 1958 Professor of Economics"
What does that even mean? That he taught one class of Economics back in 1958?
Most places, people get fired for always being so wrong and producing pretty looking crap like that... but then again, it's the iMF. whattayaexpect
Only very special organization hire people who is so wrong in perpetuity. Welcome to fiat world of government.
"It is obvious to anybody skilled in the art of modelling that so many misses in the same direction are irrefutable PROOF that the forecasts are NOT forecasts but politically driven statements of desire to manipulate perceptions"
Off Topic, yes, but a nice example to prove your point - 73 climate models vs observations:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/CMIP5-73-models-vs-obs-20...
When life and death depend on careful analysis, make model fit data. When political, make data to fit model which is support agenda. Enough is said.
Tyler, is that you?
I'll make another prediction, in the next few hours there will be an article about Argentina.
Argentina's president has a clot near her brain, her successor is being prosecuted by the justice for many criminal activities, the successor of her successor if the wife of the Governor of Tucuman, also consider a criminal (he was a used car dealer :), imagine his honesty and moral fiber).
The US Supreme Court just refused to hear Argentinas debt case, which makes decisions by the lower chambers executable.
Argentina and the USA converge...
Yes, I have been waiting to be right for years now..threw the towel in and went long Yellen and upping bond purchases...sleep better now.
Hence Goldman's bollox.
Three stooges with a Birinyi ruler..
You should add the SP to hilarious chart of the day. Today has been the day of dueling momentum ignition algos.
Only reality is that the VWAP (volume weighted average price) for SPY is down to 167.33, currently SPY is 8 pips below VWAP
These economists must have been bribed. It's like these guys are famous movie critics and they just gave 4 stars and two tumbs up for Gigli.
I'll bet Krugman liked Gigli.
My money's on the chimps...
They think China has shot it's wad.
We will continue to "beat expectations" all the way down.
hedge accordingly.
Not if you use actual fiat dollar value or official CPI price deflator to adjust dollar value. It will be extremely confusing since people are not used to see huge differences between reality and official indicators. But as the fall accelerates you will hear more and more about the flaws of the government indexes which will be behind by many months from reality of price increases. Thus all calculations will show growth in fiat terms when in real terms it will be contraction, people WILL be fooled by that. And expect the MSM to fuel that mistake at full throtle.
No one will be "fooled" when they can't afford (or find) food.
Same as it ever was...
IMF Report October 2038 - "Don't worry growth will rebound next year, this time we're sure."
Happy Days Are Here Again
The skies above are clear again.
... and we'll sing it until our eyes bleed. Perhaps they'll even start using it in car commercials.
Was Joe Biden scribbling with his crayons and colored book again!
The Summer of Recovery is just around the corner!!!
"This was supposed to be the Summer of George!"
"This was supposed to be the Summer of George!"
"This was supposed to be the Summer of George!"
Please stop hitting "Save".
More of the same games orchastrated by Wall Street and this goverment. This chart better reflects the money printing or inflation rather than growth.
Wake me up when we get to the part when the line goes up...
the IMF only employs those with Econ PhD's from IVY league institutions.
If Shakespeare were alive today he might well replace "lawyers" with "economists." Or, at the very least, amend the line to include "all economists."
One thing is clear, the world does need more dart-throwing chimps.
Second chart looks like the logo from ABBA...
and I think it's copyright protected....
WHAT ABOUT COPYRIGHT LAWS IMF GUYS!?!??!?
DOES THE LAW NOT APPLY TO YOU?!?!?!
They must have consulted the unicorn puking rainbows oracle again
Bullish!
Cutting edge research with a ruler. ROFL.
Desperate times call for...*sunglasses on*...desperate measures?
YEAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!
all built by modern voodoo priests (aka ekonomists)
rub-ish
I actually thought the forecasts WERE by monkeys.
As funny as it is to see the lies on a chart. If no one ever is held accountable for any of the bullshit , why would anyonevthink it will change in the future.
"If no one ever is held accountable for any of the bullshit , why would anyonevthink it will change in the future."
Who does?
This is like the CBO using 6.0%+ growth in 2015-17 in their ten year models to make the debt look much better than it will really be.
Those charts aren't labeled correctly. They should all be labeled either "IMF Neo-classical Economists Don't have a F'ing Clue" or "IMF's Exercise in Drawing a Bunch of Pretty Colored Lines Randomly on a Chart."
"Why isn't it going up? I told the chart to go up, and the economy didn't do it. What am I doing wrong?
Priapism
Need some saltpetre to correct !
Why don't they just wait for the numbers to come out and back date their predictions?
Ahhh the "10 bladed hockey stick" pattern, I think this pattern in forecasting will turn out to have been a warning sign at least as ominous as the Hindenburg Omen in retrospect, when we all look back on these post-2008 years....
If we just try Socialism ONE MOAR TIME, it'll be GREAT! I tell you, it's going to work this time!