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Hilarious Charts Of The Day: IMF's "Growth Forecasts" Over Time

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The chart below, showing the historical change in the IMF's periodic revisions of world growth and revised for today's just released latest World Economic Outlook, shows that much taxpayer money can be saved if the monetary fund's staff was replaced with dart-throwing chimps.

That the IMF saw 2013 world growth at 4.1% when the S&P500 was at 1,400 and now that it sees 2013 growth at the lowest ever in the series, 2.9%, when the S&P500 is just a whisker off its all time high is without comment.

* * *

Some other funny charts.

US growth forecasts over time - mind the 2012 GDP-boosting revision:

 

China, the world's growth dynamo - big oops:

 

And, perhaps scariest of all, world trade.

No worries though, Bernanke is good for it.

 

And for some further amusement, here is what prominent economists are saying about the IMF's Economic Review:

“The IMF Economic Review is quickly becoming the premier outlet for context-based macroeconomic research. In doing so, it is providing a great service to policymakers and a source of inspiration to real-world driven researchers.”

- Ricardo J. Caballero, Ford International Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, MIT

 

“The IMF Economic Review is devoted to state-of-the-art research on the global economy. Given the Fund’s unique position on the front lines of surveillance and crisis management, anyone interested in international economic policy or in macroeconomics more generally will find this journal to be essential reading.” 

- Maurice Obstfeld, Class of 1958 Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley

 

“The objective of the IMF Economic Review is to bring leading scholars, with cutting edge research, to the policy discussion. The first four issues of the Review have done exactly that. I am confident future issues of the Review will do the same.”

- Olivier J. Blanchard, Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF

 

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Tue, 10/08/2013 - 09:59 | 4033580 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

if you always only take a step half way to reality, will you ever get there?

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:17 | 4033626 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

They should let a pack of monkeys throwing darts predict growth instead.  At least it would be funny and we'd save a ton of money on economist salaries.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:21 | 4033651 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

They use a strategy reverse of mine. I predict the imminent collapse of the market again and again. I'm going to get it right one of these times if I keep trying. The stock market will collapse by the end of the year, count on it.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:31 | 4033697 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I'm going to make a prediction of my own:  Sometime in the next 24 hours there will be an article on ZH about Puerto Rico.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:38 | 4033738 spine001
spine001's picture

The IMF doesn't miss it so many times in the same direction by chance. Forecast models don't work that way. It is obvious to anybody skilled in the art of modelling that so many misses in the same direction are irrefutable PROOF that the forecasts are NOT forecasts but politically driven statements of desire to manipulate perceptions. Dart throwing monkeys would be a lot more accurate for the simple reason that the outcome would be random and not manipulated up as it is now. CFTC is going after JPMorgan??? A war in Olympus? Us mortals will suffer

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:31 | 4033923 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

"Maurice Obstfeld, Class of 1958 Professor of Economics"

What does that even mean?  That he taught one class of Economics back in 1958?

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 14:40 | 4034843 Stuart
Stuart's picture

Most places, people get fired for always being so wrong and producing pretty looking crap like that... but then again, it's the iMF.  whattayaexpect

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 15:31 | 4034886 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Only very special organization hire people who is so wrong in perpetuity. Welcome to fiat world of government.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:37 | 4034193 Svendblaaskaeg
Svendblaaskaeg's picture

"It is obvious to anybody skilled in the art of modelling that so many misses in the same direction are irrefutable PROOF that the forecasts are NOT forecasts but politically driven statements of desire to manipulate perceptions"

Off Topic, yes, but a nice example to prove your point - 73 climate models vs observations:

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/CMIP5-73-models-vs-obs-20...

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 14:55 | 4034915 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

When life and death depend on careful analysis, make model fit data. When political, make data to fit model which is support agenda. Enough is said.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:30 | 4033698 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

Tyler, is that you?

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:42 | 4033733 spine001
spine001's picture

I'll make another prediction, in the next few hours there will be an article about Argentina.

Argentina's president has a clot near her brain, her successor is being prosecuted by the justice for many criminal activities, the successor of her successor if the wife of the Governor of Tucuman, also consider a criminal (he was a used car dealer :), imagine his honesty and moral fiber).

The US Supreme Court just refused to hear Argentinas debt case, which makes decisions by the lower chambers executable.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 13:56 | 4034549 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Argentina and the USA converge...

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:32 | 4033921 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Yes, I have been waiting to be right for years now..threw the towel in and went long Yellen and upping bond purchases...sleep better now.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:19 | 4033652 Rubicon
Rubicon's picture

Hence Goldman's bollox.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:51 | 4033783 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Three stooges with a Birinyi ruler..

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:23 | 4033665 slotmouth
slotmouth's picture

You should add the SP to hilarious chart of the day.  Today has been the day of dueling momentum ignition algos.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:46 | 4033756 spine001
spine001's picture

Only reality is that the VWAP (volume weighted average price) for SPY is down to 167.33, currently SPY is 8 pips below VWAP

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:33 | 4033928 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

These economists must have been bribed. It's like these guys are famous movie critics and they just gave 4 stars and two tumbs up for Gigli.

I'll bet Krugman liked Gigli.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:09 | 4033853 Clayton Bigsby
Clayton Bigsby's picture

My money's on the chimps...

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:00 | 4033581 BandGap
BandGap's picture

They think China has shot it's wad.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 09:58 | 4033582 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

We will continue to "beat expectations" all the way down.

hedge accordingly.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:49 | 4033771 spine001
spine001's picture

Not if you use actual fiat dollar value or official CPI price deflator to adjust dollar value. It will be extremely confusing since people are not used to see huge differences between reality and official indicators. But as the fall accelerates you will hear more and more about the flaws of the government indexes which will be behind by many months from reality of price increases. Thus all calculations will show growth in fiat terms when in real terms it will be contraction, people WILL be fooled by that. And expect the MSM to fuel that mistake at full throtle.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:02 | 4034050 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

No one will be "fooled" when they can't afford (or find) food.

Same as it ever was...

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:00 | 4033583 Australian Economist
Australian Economist's picture

IMF Report October 2038  - "Don't worry growth will rebound next year, this time we're sure."

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:01 | 4033584 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Happy Days Are Here Again

The skies above are clear again.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:37 | 4033937 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

... and we'll sing it until our eyes bleed. Perhaps they'll even start using it in car commercials.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:02 | 4033589 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Was Joe Biden scribbling with his crayons and colored book again!

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:02 | 4033590 shermacman
shermacman's picture

The Summer of Recovery is just around the corner!!!

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:47 | 4033761 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

"This was supposed to be the Summer of George!"

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:48 | 4033766 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

"This was supposed to be the Summer of George!"

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:47 | 4033767 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

"This was supposed to be the Summer of George!"

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:10 | 4033856 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

Please stop hitting "Save".

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:04 | 4033598 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

More of the same games orchastrated by Wall Street and this goverment.  This chart better reflects the money printing or inflation rather than growth.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:08 | 4033607 NRGIsFree
NRGIsFree's picture

Wake me up when we get to the part when the line goes up...

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:10 | 4033609 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

the IMF only employs those with Econ PhD's from IVY league institutions. 

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:31 | 4033706 suteibu
suteibu's picture

If Shakespeare were alive today he might well replace "lawyers" with "economists."  Or, at the very least, amend the line to include "all economists."

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:18 | 4033636 AcidRastaHead
AcidRastaHead's picture

One thing is clear, the world does need more dart-throwing chimps.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:25 | 4033645 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Second chart looks like the logo from ABBA...

and I think it's copyright protected....

WHAT ABOUT COPYRIGHT LAWS IMF GUYS!?!??!?
DOES THE LAW NOT APPLY TO YOU?!?!?!

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:28 | 4033692 the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

They must have consulted the unicorn puking rainbows oracle again

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:28 | 4033694 Down Vote
Down Vote's picture

Bullish!

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:34 | 4033718 BlackVoid
BlackVoid's picture

Cutting edge research with a ruler. ROFL.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 13:00 | 4033947 TheRedScourge
TheRedScourge's picture

Desperate times call for...*sunglasses on*...desperate measures?

 

YEAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:37 | 4033728 4 wheel drift
4 wheel drift's picture

all built by modern voodoo priests (aka ekonomists)

 

rub-ish

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:43 | 4033752 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I actually thought the forecasts WERE by monkeys.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:48 | 4033774 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

As funny as it is to see the lies on a chart. If no one ever is held accountable for any of the bullshit , why would anyonevthink it will change in the future. 

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:19 | 4034123 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

"If no one ever is held accountable for any of the bullshit , why would anyonevthink it will change in the future."

Who does?

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:12 | 4033863 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

This is like the CBO using 6.0%+ growth in 2015-17 in their ten year models to make the debt look much better than it will really be.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:20 | 4034119 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

Those charts aren't labeled correctly. They should all be labeled either "IMF Neo-classical Economists Don't have a F'ing Clue" or "IMF's Exercise in Drawing a Bunch of Pretty Colored Lines Randomly on a Chart."

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:29 | 4034160 W74
W74's picture

"Why isn't it going up?  I told the chart to go up, and the economy didn't do it.  What am I doing wrong?

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:53 | 4034262 Smartie37
Smartie37's picture

Priapism

Need some saltpetre to correct ! 

 

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 14:54 | 4034901 eaglerock
eaglerock's picture

Why don't they just wait for the numbers to come out and back date their predictions?

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 15:27 | 4035059 Freedumb
Freedumb's picture

Ahhh the "10 bladed hockey stick" pattern, I think this pattern in forecasting will turn out to have been a warning sign at least as ominous as the Hindenburg Omen in retrospect, when we all look back on these post-2008 years....

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 17:13 | 4035596 Mad Muppet
Mad Muppet's picture

If we just try Socialism ONE MOAR TIME, it'll be GREAT! I tell you, it's going to work this time!

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