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US Runs Out Of Cash As Soon As October 22 Revised BPC Forecast Shows

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The BPC, whose initial analysis of the US default has become the staple "go-to" analysis for Treasury cash obligations and key events in the days surrounding and following the X-Date, has released a new update on when the US runs out of money. The latest: October 22 - November 1. Which means that if it so desires, the GOP can and probably will delay a debt ceiling bargain until the last possible moment which may well be, appropriately enough, Halloween. In the meantime, the US Treasury now has about $40 billion in total cash on hand and available extraordinary measures and declining fast.

The latest complete note:

As BPC’s X Date Window Narrows, Economic Risks Grow

  • BPC’s Updated X Date Range: October 22 – November 1
  • Major Debt Rollovers: October 17 - $120 billion; October 24 - $93 billion
  • Major Payments Due During X-Date Range: $12 billion in Social Security benefits on October 23; $6 billion in interest on the public debt on October 31; over $55 billion in major payments on November 1
  • Likely Impact of Shutdown on X-Date Range: If resolved shortly – negligible; if prolonged – a couple days

Updated data on Treasury cash flows through the first week of October show that the range for the Bipartisan Policy Center’s (BPC) X Date – the date on which the United States will be unable to meet all of its financial obligations in full and on time – has narrowed to between October 22 and November 1. The updated range is consistent with BPC’s earlier estimate.

No one can predict with absolute certainty the date and time when Treasury will have exhausted all its extraordinary measures and run out of cash on hand. Therefore, policymakers should not assume that they have until October 22 to make decisions concerning the federal debt ceiling. In all likelihood, markets will begin to demand higher interest rates to bid on and hold United States debt. In fact, this behavior is already apparent in short-term Treasury debt interest rates. The U.S. Treasury will roll over at least $302 billion in outstanding federal debt between October 15 and October 31; $120 billion of debt is scheduled to mature on October 17.

Some evidence of market uneasiness has emerged in recent days, with the cost of insurance on American sovereign debt rising in the form of more expensive credit default swaps. Since markets are forward-looking in behavior, more palpable evidence of market uneasiness will likely materialize well before the October 22-November 1 timeframe. 

Past analysis shows that the debt ceiling confrontation in 2011 cost the American taxpayer $1.3 billion in Fiscal Year 2011 and $18.9 billion over a decade. At least a similar, if not greater, cost could occur in this standoff simply because the total level of debt outstanding and subject to risk is 17 percent greater today than it was in 2011. The longer policymakers allow this debate to continue, the higher we anticipate the costs to taxpayers.

When is the debt limit X Date?

Substantial debt maturing in the second half of October
As of the October 8 publication of this update, Treasury is scheduled to roll-over about $120 billion of maturing securities on October 17, $93 billion on October 24, and $89 billion on October 31. As the X Date approaches without action on the debt limit, one risk is that buyers of government debt will be less likely to participate in Treasury auctions and, for those that continue to participate, more likely to demand higher interest rates, increasing the cost of servicing the existing debt. The amount of debt maturing during this period will increase as Treasury schedules additional short-term auctions in the days ahead.

Debt rollover and the X Date

Major payments ahead
After the beginning of BPC’s estimated X Date window, a $12 billion Social Security payment is due on October 23 and a $6 billion interest payment on the public debt is due on October 31. On November 1, payments of almost $55 billion for Social Security, Medicare, veterans benefits, military pay, and military retirement benefits are due. 

Major payments between October 18 and November 15

How will the shutdown affect the X Date?
BPC recently analyzed the current shutdown’s effect on government spending based on data from the 1995-6 shutdown. A shutdown that is resolved before policymakers address the debt limit would have very little impact on the timing of the X Date. A shutdown that lasts the entire month, however, could delay the X Date, but probably not by more than a couple of days. BPC will continue to monitor the reduction in spending that occurs due to the shutdown, and if the shutdown persists, will issue an update on its potential impact on the X Date range as soon as the data warrants.

Why no one knows the exact X Date in advance
BPC’s X Date projection has always been and will continue to be a range of dates. While our updated estimate is narrower than our previous one, at no point will it be possible to narrow the projection down to an individual day – some government transactions, especially revenue, are uncertain in amount and timing. In fact, this statement is true even for the Treasury Department, which has more information about the federal government’s cash flows than any other entity. Despite many reports about an October 17th debt ceiling deadline, October 17th is not the X date. It is the date on which Treasury Secretary Jack Lew estimates that the federal government will have exhausted extraordinary measures and only have $30 billion cash on hand to pay bills.

While there are clear patterns (e.g., Mondays and Wednesdays typically have higher revenue than Tuesdays and Thursdays), the exact amount of collections for each day is not known in advance and can vary by several billion dollars. For example, in October of last year, about $3 billion in revenue was collected on one Tuesday, just over $6 billion was received on another Tuesday, and almost $11 billion arrived on yet another Tuesday. Furthermore, while spending is subject to less uncertainty than revenue, it still varies. For example, on some days, Medicare spending can exceed $2.5 billion while on other days, it is closer to $1 billion. These amounts are determined by how many and what types of claims are processed, which cannot be known in advance. Our ability to project the X Date will always be limited by random variation in these transactions. 

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Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:00 | 4033809 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

NAh.....shit gets real next Monday....start of trading.  If nothing looks imminent on a solution.....Wall Street starts throwing poo.....and Maria Bartaromo starts to cry.  Then all hell will break loose.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:06 | 4033829 malikai
malikai's picture

I'm looking forward to the trillion dollar beanie baby handover ceremony to the fed.

I hear Miley will do a special twerking performance to mark the occassion.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:10 | 4033851 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

Can't have that hand over....crybaby Ty Warner is going to jail

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:12 | 4033862 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Shouldn’t the Headline read “US Runs Out Of BORROWED Cash As Soon As October 22”?

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:18 | 4033883 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

No worries....Fed will be "forced" to step in an UP their counterfeiting er ...QE... and we will be saved. Karen Hudes has more balls than all of us put together

 

http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2013/10/dollar-valueless-about-to-crash-world.html

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:43 | 4033911 Manthong
Manthong's picture

The Fed ain't "the problem" now.. (well technically it is) but if Treasury can't issue more debt because the CONgress won’t let it then the Fed can't buy it.

The Fed will counterfeit until there are enough electrons, paper and ink to cover the earth a mile thick and in an eon or two it will probably ferment and compress to oil.

 

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 14:08 | 4034631 old naughty
old naughty's picture

New $100 bill come to rescue.

Gold standard!

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:58 | 4034258 TalkToLind
TalkToLind's picture

I'm not siding with democrats or republicans...

Oh my, what Karen Hudes said is blasphemy -- to the average ethanol pumping, Obama phone using, corn syrup drinking, Today show watching American sheeple, that is.  Thanks for the link!

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:02 | 4034048 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

If Miley twerks at the Fed, the gates of MOARdor will open in earnest

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:39 | 4034204 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Her legs ARE the gates of MOARdor in which you will see her EYE of Sauron.....or.....someone.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:41 | 4034215 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

If there EVER was a perfect personage of the Whore of Babylon.....it's Tramp Disney Cyrus.

"You can take the trash from the trailer.....but you can never take the trailer from the trash."

 

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:00 | 4033813 pan
pan's picture

Just shutdown the more government.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:33 | 4033925 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

The line goes, "America, the most powerful Country on Earth.......(fill in the rest)

But in October of 2013, we have somewhere around "40 billion cash on hand"!!! 4 trillion dollar economy and we have 1% of that, cash on hand right now!!!

LMFAO

That's just unreal actually and more so, just plain irresponsible!!!!! If the GOP is doing this stunt, for no other reason then to give awake up call to the powers that be, that were actually broke idiots, it will be worth it!

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 15:12 | 4034989 odatruf
odatruf's picture

I'm supposed to make a 12k estimated tax payment on the 15th for last quarter and the September tax withholdings. If I could only push that off a little - and others like me did too - well I suppose X might be sooner than hoped.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:02 | 4033814 Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

This is all Political Therater. They're lying, deceiving Criminals. We're broke, they know it & The Criminal Treasury knows it.

Perhaps, & its a long stretch, if they would just stop spending the problem would resolve itself. NOT a chance, the Criminal system is run on debt & credit.

Without it, KaBoom. It's Over, it's been over.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:41 | 4033952 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

They could stop spending, but then that would require "free market principles" to kick in, and these control freak, ego maniacs in DC and on WS hate the very thought of that!!

Both party's are equally dillusional and socialist in their thinking since at least 2008 and I suspect way before!! Centralized banking, Fed, etc are all code for a controlled economy, the fucking opposite of a free market economy!! If you let markets go, they create winners and losers, prices fluctuate, businesses rise and fall, rich people lose their assets and poor ones rise to be rich, and so on!

DC and Wall Street, have decided they don't like that idea AT ALL!! They like corruption, nepotism, fraud, rich only get richer, and prices are controlled!!

Risk free tyranny is what we have today, and if your in power, of course you love it, your winning, and you have no competition!!

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:50 | 4033998 pods
pods's picture

No, they cannot stop issuing debt.  It has nothing to do with anything other than our money supply.

Debt issued currency (with interest) compels there to be be exponential expansion to keep up with compound interest.

Sure there are all those things you mentioned, but the reason WHY we have QE and deficit spending is ONLY due to keeping aggregate total debt rising.

pods

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:24 | 4034133 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

Which I would argue, is fucking ridiculous!! Why does the .gov need to be involved in the "creation of money supply"? For 150 years, the free market was in charge of creating money supply, credit creation, etc

Then these fucking morons decided they wanted price stability, and controlled economies, over all else!! Hence the creation of the Federal Reserve charter legislation in 1903!

When you don't like the free market, you put controls on it, ask the Chinese, their masters at it now, but what follows is complete corruption, fraud, asset bubbles, nepotism, and political tyranny!

But god damn it, you'll have an illusion of stable interest rates and inflation (minus food and energy), won't you!

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 13:29 | 4034445 pods
pods's picture

Oh I agree that it is ridiculous.  

The government needed a cheap way to decifit spend, and the banks needed a way to protect from the inevitable bust cycles of fractional reserve banking.

Perfect marriage, and the FED was the product.

The government doesn't want stable prices. They want to pay off debt with cheaper dollars.  

So we get stable inflation.  Think about that term for a while.

Stable inflation.  lol

I am not going to argue the merits about a free-market because I have never seen one in my life.  

Actually since most were born after 1913, I would say that none of us have seen one.

I can see your contempt and anger, and many of us have been there before.  Be careful, it will burn you up long before you set them on fire.

pods

 

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:35 | 4034180 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

They could stop spending, but then that would require "free market principles"

There has never been.....nor shall there EVER be a free market.  Stop dreaming and come up with a better delusion.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:49 | 4034246 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Without a doubt... the whole system was rigged from the beginning.

 

Fiat currency + central banking system + Fed controlling inflation/currency + fractional reserve lending = the greatest scam (un)known to mankind.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 13:17 | 4034391 msmith9962
msmith9962's picture

Those should be X not + and add cheap energy to the equation

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 13:52 | 4034524 Jethro
Jethro's picture

I think you could actually argue for a ^ instead of a couple of the X's.

Off topic. I love Zymurguy's avatar. Pigtails, Dirndl and beer. Love it.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 10:59 | 4033815 dcj98gst
dcj98gst's picture

What if the rollovers did not happen?  

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:01 | 4033818 Jason T
Jason T's picture

per Martin Armstrong:

"Obama’s refusal to negotiate is political to further the Democrats at the expense of the nation. Obama thinks he can blame the Republicans if there is a national default. He is betting on that will destroy the Tea Party once and for all and thus refuses to do anything claiming Congress must do “its job” that he defines is reopening the government and raising the debt ceiling without any negotiation on concession. There is clearly a hardening of positions here and Obama believes either way he wins. If the Republicans blink, that destroys the fiscal conservatives. If they do not blink, the country goes into default and he then uses that against them in the elections. The Democrats see this as a WIN – WIN for them regardless of who they hurt in the process."

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:03 | 4033832 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

If that is so, someone needs to tell Obama that anarcho-capitalism, libertarianism or whatever did not start with the Tea Party in 2010. These philosophies will nag him forever even if it disapears. 

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:13 | 4033868 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

if they blink Reps are done for a generation as there will be a split

if they go over the falls Barry wears it no matter how hard he tries to blame

 

Barry needs them to blink and the key is Boner - and you know what the means the 4 hours is almost up

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:11 | 4033837 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I don't believe any of this carnival 'red puppet/blue puppet' fighting nonsense at all....theater so the sheeple feel they're 'on a team' that's all.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:19 | 4033892 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Unfortunately, 90% of Americans are buyin' it, and are all upset that their beloved, benevolent quasi-totalitarian gov't is partially shutdown. Except for the totalitarian parts, they're still up and running at full steam.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:52 | 4033996 TalkToLind
TalkToLind's picture

That's because Americans still believe that government of the people, by the people, for the people bullshit.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:10 | 4034091 akak
akak's picture

It is not bullshit at all --- you merely have to recognize who "the people" referred to actually are.

Hint: they are NOT you and I.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 13:46 | 4034490 Jethro
Jethro's picture

I want to hold onto the original ideals, but that requires an informed public. And we can't discriminate against people because they aren't educated, informed, or even share the same national citizenship as a native voter, because, that'd be....you know...racist.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:53 | 4034263 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Selectively "shutdown" only to apply pain where it best benefits the sitting despot, just like the sequester cuts.

Golf courses on national property are still up and running while natl. monuments have been closed.... hmmmmmm.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:05 | 4034061 pods
pods's picture

SD this is precisely the aim of all this theater.  I have tried to stay away from most of this, and only check headlines now.

The point of all this theater is to scare US, the people, into begging the government to help us and keep spending.

But all the scum in DC need cover to keep our debt rising.  So they now close things we use, while keeping most of the gravy flowing.

And nobody will admit WHY the debt needs to go up. Well, Landofthefree does, but he gets run outta here on a rail every time he speaks about it.

It is always about the DEBT.  Always has, always will.

Housing bubble>easy debt.

Student loans (non dischargeable)>easy debt.

QE> easy debt.

Debt debt debt debt debt. When you can see the world in this way, all this clown theater gets boring.  You lose the visceral "my team" feelings and you wont metaphorically slit your friends/neighbors throats so you can keep getting yours.  I cannot stand to hear people screeching on the radio about how THEIR livelihood is important while at the same time tossing everyone else under the bus.

When this music really stops, I am staying the hell away from most people.  Can you imagine behavior in a REAL crisis if people are acting like this in a contrived one?

pods

 

 

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:12 | 4033864 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

"fiscal conservatives"?

Haha, yeah okay Marty. The only one I've seen in the last 40 years is Ron Paul.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:16 | 4033876 Arius
Arius's picture

cant blame the guy ... he got to make a living too.  if someone pays him, well he will dance accordingly ... red team, blue team, green team whatever the customer wants

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:17 | 4033880 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

That is the single reason why niether party should expect to win anything legally.

The Repubs know they're finished, Dems are hell bent on starting a revolution...

The country has been broke for a decade, this is simply the catch up to the Greenspan era.

There is a lag effect that has been missed by everyone.

Ben's lag effect will be experienced by the entire world.

If we do not default, then we are fools, who wholly deserve everything that will occur as a result.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:02 | 4033819 alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

The Federal government has only one legal obligation: paying capital and interests on the securities it issued. The rest is just political promises.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:05 | 4034060 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

Probably true. They still have more than enough tax receipts to cover interest rates and capital for the debt obligations. It would surprise me a lot if they would fail to pay these. As usual, it is the people in general who will get shafted this time, as always. Those who believe rates will skyrocket and starts to short curves should consider what would happen if the Treasury prioritizes debt service before everything else. That trade could go very sour.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:13 | 4033820 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh...well obviously time to imagine up some more cash then and place the debt on the landless sharecroppers again....then all will be well for another few months until it happens again.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:02 | 4033827 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

A citizen (Bill Gates) probably can come up with more cash by tomorrow morning than the government of the United States.  USA, USA!

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:10 | 4033857 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Oh...you mean fake fiat digital bits.  Then yeah....Gates can come up with it.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 12:31 | 4034158 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

Why would anyone believe this debt limit threat? Look at the equity indexes. Look at Gold, its flat. Dow is down 90 points...And holding like a rock?? C'mon!! The machines are in control as usual. This little 3% dip is meant to twist the arms of congress. Go down but keep a handle on it for the big rocket shot when Boehner or Orangatang says...Wait for it..."COMPROMISE". The Dow will gain every lost penny in a nanosecond!! Because that's the way it works for the 1% - Who will know 5 minutes before the rest of us. This is America ya boneheads!

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:12 | 4033867 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Microsoft tax > Federal income tax

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:03 | 4033835 heinrich6666
heinrich6666's picture

Let's hope it does.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:03 | 4033836 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Lets show China we mean business....delay payment to them a few days...make 'm jump.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:48 | 4033975 TalkToLind
TalkToLind's picture

Careful, China has missles that can sink aircraft carriers.  When you have tools like that at your disposal, debt collection is easy.

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:06 | 4033838 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

US runs out of ABILITY TO INCREASE DEBILITATING DEFECIT SPENDING THUS INCREASING THE DEBT TO DANGEROUS AND IRREVOCABLE LEVELS as soon as October 22 according to BPC forecasts.

Fixed it for ya!

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:06 | 4033845 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The Fear and Panic theater for the dumbed down morons to make them beg for moar to be taken from them. 

Tue, 10/08/2013 - 11:05 | 4033842 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

No worries, The Fed has plenty of cash (and plenty of taxpayers to extract real wealth from).

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

 

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