Guest Post: The Possible Outcomes Of The Shutdown Theater

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Brandon Smith of Alt-Market blog,

Only a week ago, the consensus among most mainstream economic analysts and even some alternative analysts was that a government shutdown was not going to happen. The Republicans would fold in the shadow of President Barack Obama’s overwhelming drive for socialization, spending would continue to grow unabated, and the debt ceiling would be vaulted yet again to feed the bureaucratic machine with more fiat. Today, there is no consensus, very few people continue to be so blithely self-assured and even the mainstream is beginning to wonder if a much bigger game is afoot here.

As I discussed before the shutdown in a recent article, it is important to take all facets of this situation seriously, or risk being bitten by hidden dangers while entranced in one's own arrogant cynicism.

One rule I try to follow whenever possible is to always be open to possibilities beyond the expected and never assume that today’s dynamic will be the same as tomorrow’s dynamic. Even the Liberty Movement can at times be susceptible to group think.  In a world of staggering political and economic manipulation, one has to grasp hold of certain fundamental truths in order to survive. In my time working within the liberty movement and outside of the mainstream, these are a few of the cold, hard truths that have served me well.

It’s Always About Globalization

Every action the elites within our government take pushes the U.S. closer to globalism and away from sovereignty. We may not always see the bigger picture in the heat of the moment, but a look back tells us much. Seemingly simple changes in financial legislation render devastating fiscal shifts a decade later (as with the progressive erasure of Glass-Steagall). Shocking disaster events that appear random suddenly open doors for totalitarian legislation that had been prepared years in advance. Wars end with further calls for world “unification.” Nothing, and I mean nothing, happens within government that does not revolve around the desire of establishment oligarchy to achieve total global economic, political and social control.

The Bankers Did It

Central banks and international banks are the bedrock of globalization, and all greater political decisions eventually stand on this bedrock. One need only examine the cabinets of the past four U.S. Presidents; there you will find a regular carnival freak show of banking elites who would go on to revolve in and out of government and back into the international financial sector. Private central banks like the Federal Reserve dominate the very currency (and thus the economy) of most nations on the planet. Most wars and man-made disasters of the past several centuries have served only to further enrich and empower the merchant class, and the same holds true today. If you want to understand why a certain calamity has occurred, first look to who benefited most. Invariably, you will find the banker class smiling when all is said and done.

America’s Two-Party System Is Actually A One-Party System

If you do not yet understand that the elite of the Republican Party and the Democratic Party share the same foundational philosophy of globalism, then you will NEVER understand why our government does what it does. Public battles of words and legislation are nothing but rhetorical cinema. Ultimately, the goals of neocons and neolibs revolve around the centralization of power. All legislation is used either to further centralization or as a smokescreen to confuse the public while centralization is taking place. When has the leadership of either party, for instance, ever demanded a full audit of the Federal Reserve? When has the leadership of either party ever attempted to dismantle the Patriot Act or the despotic provisions of the National Defense Authorization Act or the President’s openly admitted assassination list? They may seem to disagree violently at times, but do not be fooled. The disagreement is likely just another means to gain more dominance.

The Goal Is To Destroy The American Economy

What you believe to be political blunders are often actually calculated and engineered events. What you believe to be chaotic disasters of coincidence are often actually deliberate acts of attrition warfare against the common people disguised as random catastrophe. Those you believe to be heroes are actually villains in friendly masks. Those you are told to be villains are actually good men and women who refused to be enslaved by the system. That which you see and hear is never exactly as it appears.

Nearly every concrete action our government and central bank have taken in the past several decades has led to the further erosion of the American economy. If this is all just the consequence of “stupidity” or “childish greed,” you would think our so-called leadership would have at least made a few good decisions by mistake; but they are incredibly adept at choosing all the wrong paths.

The reality is that collapses on the scale we are now witnessing in America rarely happen by accident.

The destruction of Glass-Steagall was a carefully crafted coup. The Federal Reserve deliberately and artificially lowered interest rates in order to allow banks to generate massive toxic debt through the derivatives markets. The Securities and Exchange Commission did little to nothing to stop the spread of cancerous mortgage instruments and ignored numerous calls for investigation. Ratings agencies like Moody’s and Fitch examined all of these toxic assets, knowing exactly what they were, and rated them AAA anyway. And banks like Goldman Sachs, knowing that the market was a sham, sold these bad assets around the world and then secretly bet AGAINST them later. Either this is economic warfare implemented with precision, or it’s all a string of coincidental blunders. I don’t believe in such coincidences.

America is being destroyed by design to make way for a new global system administered by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, as well as a new global currency tied to the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights.

If you are able to accept this, the confusion surrounding events like the government shutdown and debt ceiling debate withers, and everything becomes clear. With that clarity in mind, we can now examine the possible outcomes of the shutdown theater.

Republicans Surrender At The Last Minute

Of course, since both parties are essentially one party, the idea of “brinksmanship” on the part of either is absurd. The GOP will surrender, or “stand fast,” because its serves the interests of the globalist establishment. There is no political battle here, only the empty chest-beating of a staged wrestling match.

Bets on a last-minute Republican reversal were in the majority for the past week of the shutdown, but that is slowly changing — and for good reason. Obama has stated that the Affordable Care Act is off the table in negotiations, while Republicans like Ted Cruz and John Boehner are now stating with surprising candor that debt default is on the table if Obama refuses to compromise.

Gee, it would seem we are at an impasse.

In the meantime, the GOP is also moving to wrap the debt ceiling debate into the shutdown fight, making a “diplomatic compromise” even less likely to make sense to the public. (Those who argued that the shutdown and the debt ceiling were two entirely separate issued should accept this reality and move on.)

If I were writing this bit of fiction, I would say I was writing myself into a corner and that a last-minute Republican white flag would be illogical to my audience. That said, not all stories are well-written stories, so a Republican rollover remains an option for the time being. The primary reason I can see for the establishment to instruct the GOP to retreat would be to set the stage for a new stimulus event, like a war, which still leaves the U.S. dollar on track to lose its world reserve status — just not as fast a track.

Default Occurs By Winter

This plot twist makes far more sense to me given the way our story has progressed so far. Why? Because it provides perfect cover for an economic collapse that was going to occur anyway, except in this version the banking elite avoid all blame.

Just look at all the angry rhetoric being thrown around in the mainstream media; red team versus blue team has returned as the pervasive American sitcom.

Conservatives blame liberals and Obama. Liberals blame conservatives and the Tea Party. We’re all too happy to blame each other. Certainly, both elements of our government share responsibility for any debt default or subsequent collapse. But who started this avalanche to begin with? What about the Federal Reserve? What about Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup, etc.? What about the globalists?

Debt default is no small matter. Such a disaster would indeed fuel a flight from U.S. Treasuries by foreign investors and eventually lead to the complete abandonment of the greenback as the world reserve standard. Austerity measures would be implemented at break-neck speed. Cuts to entitlement programs, pensions, State funding, etc. will hit the American people like a freight train.

The way in which the MSM is already painting “Tea Party” conservative as saboteurs should a default occur is actually a very practical strategy. Not only do the elites get their economic collapse, but they manipulate the general public to believe that Constitutional conservatives, their mortal enemies, were the CAUSE of the pain, rather than the banks.

Order From Chaos

Should the establishment decide this is the moment to pull the plug on our financial structure, expect some rather insane-sounding solutions to be presented as rational alternatives. When Obama was asked by reporters if he considered the 14th Amendment as an option to end the debt ceiling debate, Obama did not rule out the idea.

This should raise some eyebrows. By the 14th Amendment I can only surmise that they mean Section 4, which states:

The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.

Some people, including CNBC’s Jim Cramer, think that this gives the President the power to raise the debt ceiling regardless of what Congress decides.

And Obama doesn’t appear to be dismissing the notion either. However, Section 5 of the 14th Amendment says:

The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.

Nowhere in Section 5 does it say that the President has the power to enforce the provisions of the 14th Amendment, but this may not stop the White House from twisting the law to insinuate more expansive controls.

Beyond the 14th Amendment, there are numerous executive orders and continuity of government programs that the White House could cite as authority to implement national emergency standards. This would probably start as a kind of “soft” martial law, and then grow from there. Each action will be rationalized as necessary for the greater good of the country, but will serve only the interests of the establishment oligarchy.

On the Republican side, there is another disturbing development that may be presented as a solution in the face of crisis — namely, the idea of instituting a Constitutional convention.

A Constitutional convention is essentially a complete rewriting of the document (which they call "amending") in the name of rebooting a government that has strayed too far from the wishes of the people. The concept is being promoted avidly by certain neocon talking heads and scholars, even on the FOX News circuit.

It sounds very noble on the surface, and neocons use very pretty language to candy coat the idea for legitimate Constitutionalists; but it is truly the most foolish action our country could take, opening the door to a complete erasure of Bill of Rights protections while offering no assurances that any meaningful provisions will be respected or afforded by the Federal government.  The people are given the illusion of potential redress when in reality a Con-Con produces only more centralized theater for the masses. If the liberty movement is suckered into a Constitutional convention, we will have been lured into writing our own destruction.

Another scenario could involve the Federal Reserve moving to take what they often call "extraordinary measures".  The Fed, being a private bank, may use the shutdown as an opportunity to paint itself as an economic "hero" (as unbelievable as that may sound), by instituting stimulus measures to the Federal Government regardless of Congressional or presidential impasse.  Given enough public desperation in the midst of default, the Fed may attempt to assert unprecedented financial authority in the name of "saving the country from it's own government".  The bankers then establish their role as the wise saviors and high priests of the fiscal universe, and cement private dominance over American political decisions as "acceptable" in the minds of the citizenry.

The most dangerous solution that will inevitably be paraded for the public will be a petition for aid from the IMF. The IMF has a long history of loansharking to indebted nations and then subsuming them and their natural resources in the process. The ignorant illusion that the United States is the sole power behind the IMF will be exposed all too late when a defaulting American Treasury is told to collateralize infrastructure to pay off creditors, while the dollar is bled completely dry and absorbed by the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket currency.

Whether default occurs or is avoided, watch vigilantly over the next few weeks. Do not blink. Do not be conned, and do not let fear or bias blind you to the bigger picture. The shutdown could amount to nothing immediate, or it could amount to everything we have warned about for the past five years. I personally believe the month of October may be a major turning point in America’s history. Whether it be for good or ill depends on how mentally and physically prepared we are.

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LetThemEatRand's picture

"there is another disturbing development that may be presented as a solution in the face of crisis — namely, the idea of instituting a Constitutional convention."

When fascism comes to America.

The document ain't broken.  The People just need to take it back.

gonetogalt's picture

All through the '70s & '80s talking heads from cheesepope think tanks & universities were calling for constitional conventions, the John Birch Society was the loudest opposition in those years...who's going to keep this shit derailed now if they go full out for a CC?

LetThemEatRand's picture

Frankly, I don't think they'll bother.  They've figured out how to usurp it already.  When corporations (entities that have no personal responsibility) became People and bribery became legal so long as it is called a campaign contribution or lobbying, that was that.   It matters not who writes the laws.  It is who controls the issuance of currency that matters.  Those people can decide who we "elect."   Freedom, meet the Fed. 

gonetogalt's picture

I agree, a CC is unnecessary. The complete document has been hijacked in practice. As long as the Bill of Right gets lip service and the public feels those guarantees apply to them, all's well in Mayberry.

But, since a CC can't be limited to one or two issues, clauses or articles, opening one throws the entire document out. 

lakecity55's picture

Nothing wrong with the Instructions. As one poster said, we just need to take it back.

We also need to send all education back- to the States, where it belongs.

Those man on the street gigs infowars, howard stern, and others do are downright scary. It is really shocking to see so many citizens so ignorant.

Harry Dong's picture

Not quite. The USA won't repudiate it's debt and nobody can question it. Now if cra-Cra uncle TeX in the basement signs up for the get-out-of-union all expense paid 10% interest revolving line of credit with the Krugman that's different. So when the aliens come to collect on the debt uncle fester racked up the USA will tell them to pound sand.

Of course we all know that inflation can take care of the most amazing fiat debt imaginable. :-)

runningman18's picture

True, but a Con-Con would be useful in coopting the Constitutional movement if it was played correctly.  Imagine a bunch of neocons suddenly taking charge of the operation just like they did with the Tea Party.

BandGap's picture

It's not about modification, it's about overhaul. They will not have to waste a lot of time, or even shed blood, if they can rewrite the Constitution to suit their needs.

Just sayin'.

Pandorable's picture

Facism is here...and keep the dates below in mind as they may provide some "unexpected" twists to events that will lead to the NWO faster:

Oct 16-17 and 23-24...Quantum Dawn II Cyber "drills" 

Oct 17 - The Great Shakeout Earthquake "drill"

Nov 13 - Gridex II Power grid failure "drill"

Surely a coincidence two of these "drills" are planned the same day as debt default. NOT.

Harry Dong's picture

Pffft. Next you'll tell us that Chernobyl was a test. 

1:23:04 in the am is always a good time for an experiment.

Tall Tom's picture

 I will also remind you that on 9-11-01 there was a Hijacked Airline Drill running concurrently with the WTC and Pentagon Attacks.


[Sarcasm] How coincidental. It was just all circumstance. [/sarcasm]


SquirrelButtDan's picture

Same thing in the UK on 7/7.

el Gallinazo's picture

There were about a dozen drill simulations on 9/11 involving highjacked planes and/or interceptors based in the mid-Atlantic positioned elsewhere than the mid-Atlantic states.  These "drills" included putting false blips on the civilian air traffic controllers' radar.  They were on the horn constantly with NORAD trying to figure out if the blips represented a physical airplane or a virtual drill phantom.  This was all a coincidence.  I am certain of it.

Doña K's picture

It may not be a NWO right away. It may be O'bummer pulls an O'Chavez on the US to save the country.


OB: US is in the brink of default and I must stop this. I therefore, declare martial law until the ceiling is raised.

People: cacophony. No clear message, leaderless

OB: I know that some think this is too strong, but when Amerika and Amerikans are in danger, it is my duty to intervene. Not to worry. No one will starve. We will have elections as soon as the new constitution is ready.

People: But......more cacophony

OB: All unemployed and all whose income is less than $250k per year, please go to and apply for unlimited food stamps.


orez65's picture

Hey, I'm first to comment on this article:

Bull shit!

Shit, now I'm third to comment!!

Harry Dong's picture

OK orez. You've been here almost 2 Yrs and you still get giddy by being the first to open your piehole?

I think this article is 100% on the mark and we're in for an epic (and welcome [And planned]) shitstorm. This is no time to put up drunk posts.

...but hey there, I'll spring for the next round of IPA if you stick around.

lakecity55's picture

Mr Lehey: "There's a Shit Storm coming, Randy, the Mother of all Shit Storms! I'll have your pot operation shut down and both you and Julian in Jail forever. Sunnyvale will be free!"

Shibumi2's picture

Pretty succinct and well thought out piece.


I think the typical american's greatest FAILURE...of which there are many to the inability to see the subtle shifts and ploys of LONG TERM political gamesmanship. The typical mope is too busy trying to figure out how to work the remote to see nuance and strategy as it unfolds.


Only in america can the "lone gunman" theory be rolled out and taken seriously.

GottaBKiddn's picture

Well done, Brandon.

The American people have failed to become diligent students of their own freedom, the cost of this failure is very high.

g'kar's picture

Pretty obvious to me. Martial law.

LetThemEatRand's picture

Please.  We call it "shelter in place," now.   

g'kar's picture

I thought that was only if you were having your house robbed? Not much difference I guess.

LetThemEatRand's picture

Or if there is an unarmed guy hiding in a boat somewhere in your city.

g'kar's picture

That guy in Boston was an amputee?

LetThemEatRand's picture

Didn't have a leg to stand on, after they shot it off.

greatbeard's picture

>> We call it "shelter in place,"

That works for me.  I always preferred drinking alone anyway.

NoDebt's picture

It would be almost comforting to know that this is all somehow pre-planned by powers so wise and infallible that regular people should simply bow down (or bend over) and worship them.  

Yet, somehow, I don't buy it just yet.  UN, IMF, The Rothschilds, Bilderberg conferences.... all very western bogeymen.  I don't see them having much influence over China or the middle east or really anywhere that is unfamiliar to western ideas and influences.  

Yeah, the game's getting bigger, but it's not global just yet.  Maybe someday, just not yet.


chindit13's picture

Exactly.  A malevolent deity is better than no deity, because any deity at all leaves open the possibility of a deal.  If all is just random chance, with no plan, and no malice aforethought, then all anyone has is dumb luck.  That scares people more than the devil, which is why we create gods or create conspiracies.  It's oddly comforting.

Yet again we have an author trying to paint a picture of the world run by a handful of nearly omnipotent, and absolutely callously and ruthlessly self-serving people, who pull all the strings and control all the variables and get the seven billion to behave as these uber mensch would like.  All those bewildered 1.3 billion Chinese, 1.2 billion Indians, and the hundreds of millions of Russians, Brazilians, Indonesians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, etc. are just pawns easily fooled and easily manipulated by the entrenched great powers.  Lucky for us all that some guy in his redoubt in Montana can see the truth and share it with us all.

The naivete that tries to pass for awareness and sophistication in some of these articles is simply absurd.

dick cheneys ghost's picture

good point.......these guys are way Overthinking this NWO/One world currency crap......

let me boil it down for ya........these fucks are just stealing everything they can before the boat sinks......and they know its going down.......the dollar will soon be dead.........and when it is finally dead, we will all be singing.........FREE AT LAST, FREE AT LAST, THANK GOD ALMIGHTY WE ARE FREE AT LAST, from the shackles of the dollar........

Pepe Escobar's latest...

''Xi stressed over and over again that China favors one FTA to cover all of the Asia-Pacific. And as far as Beijing is concerned, that won't be TPP - which is essentially a major US corporate racket that will lower tariffs across the spectrum to the sole benefit of US multinationals and not small and medium-sized firms in developing countries, all this under the cover of a dodgy "highest free trade standard".

socalbeach's picture

Even if you accept the idea that the elites are working for a NWO / One World government, the author lost me with the paragraph starting with,

The Goal Is To Destroy The American Economy

One could argue the Mideast and Asian wars based on false pretenses were a step in the direction of a NWO, but the U.S. was used as the military muscle to subdue those countries. Since the job in the Mideast, to say nothing of Africa and other regions, has not been finished, how are those other countries going to be conquered with a collapsed American economy?

Harry Dong's picture

I gave you a plus one for going there. Care to answer your own question? Or would a follow up question work? 

Who gives the UN it's teeth when the time comes? And it is now.


socalbeach's picture

I don't agree with the majority view here that the US economy is on the verge of collapse.

in4mayshun's picture

Wow Dick, I'd like to know what drugs you're taking cause they must be good. What world do you live in? Seriously? So you think when the world's reserve currency crashes, were going to be cheering on the sidelines and just start over -no big deal huh?

Let me know how that works out...

dick cheneys ghost's picture

hey asswipe, I never said it would be easy, but being free from the dollar is the first step.....of course assholes like you love fiat currencies

shinobi-7's picture

Well said. That is often the problem with these articles indeed. So little understanding about the world and its complexity. But thankfully, there is much better stuff on ZH!

max2205's picture

Signing up for that one way trip to Mars

apberusdisvet's picture

The truth hurts; but it's still the truth.  Right, MDB?

A Lunatic's picture

WWIII no longer a viable option I'm assuming...........

Harry Dong's picture

Too late for that. It is now 'it is what it is' fatalism.


Omen IV's picture

I wonder if the authors of The Fourth Turning - saw the actual plans - it would have been just the right time in the early 90's - their depiction seems to be becoming true

The Persistent Vegetable's picture

After arguing that the two party system is one party, he turns around and calls the tea party "constitutional conservatives"?

As long as the army is still standing, the drones are still flying, the NSA is still spying, they can still detain me, and I don't see the "constitutional conservatives" saying shit about most of the above, let alone all of the above, then they arent anything but a bunch of stupid blowhards, full of sound and fury, signifying and accomplishing nothing.


i_call_you_my_base's picture

Right, where are they on stop and frisk?

runningman18's picture

No, he said that the establishment would use the gridlock to blame constitutional conservatives, which are associated with the Tea Party by the mainstream media whether they like it or not.

QQQBall's picture

Jim Creamer said... hahahahhaaha! 

akarc's picture

Well ya know it could be..... but then again in may be......... so I would caution one to ..........

or at least consider........ cause like something is gonna happen..........and it will happen at some point in time...................

So of course preparation will be key.....................I mean like you do understand don't you how I managed to sound important covering all the bases without saying a damn thing worthwhile! 

Harry Dong's picture

Was this too vague for you? It's WWF and the ref is going to get his teeth knocked out by gorgeous Jeff Gordon (I may have my redneck sports conflated).

This APPEARS to be the fix is in. It's toast and the well is dry. Why kick the can anymore?

hope u have your beans bacon whiskey and ammo stocked. I don't but it was real. It was fun. But it wasn't real fun.


runningman18's picture

Was pretty clear to me.  The elites have an opportunity to kick this horror show into overdrive, so don't discount the possibility.  The message wasn't muddled at all.

TomGa's picture

Well, shit.  That's just great.   So, who's on X-Factor this week?


/sarc off