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What Is The "Pent-Up" Market Upside In Case Of A Washington "All-Clear"
The S&P 500's 32 point rally off the lows yesterday has some excited that the "All-Clear" will be signaled soon from Washington and traders can go back their business of BTFATH. In an effort to provide guidance for just what that would mean, and assuming Yellen/Bernanke (absent any jobs data to guide their hand from the "buy" button to the "strong buy" button) stays the course, the Fed balance-sheet flow suggests an End-October S&P 500 Target of 1,800... and all driven by the optimistic expansion of multiples.
Because it's all about the fundamentals...
Chart: Bloomberg
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TD... I can't even believe you said that
How long can this rocket ride last, Major Tom?
..gonna' have to leave the capsule eventually.
Ok, but what about gold and silver? Can we see $2500 / $65 by December 31?
Until it doesn't. Then instead of tapering, Fed has to go full retard. Markets continue to fall and Fed has to go even fuller retard. All the while, PMs are crushed to make sure that everyone gets the message that the world looks to the US as a beacon of stability and not some banana republic (as opposed to a monarchy?) that can't (borrow to) pay its bills.
It's important to sneak these articles in between the default articles. This way all bases are covered and you can always say "as we predicted here" no matter what the outcome.
Damn fonz...There's a one punch knock out if I've ever seen one. BTW I hope everybody got the chance to BTFD.
If only this type of operating worked with spouses....
What? TD couldn't come up with a Simon Black Guest Post?
Boehner just caved a couple minutes ago. That's why. He's gonna put up a "clean" short term budget for a vote in the house.
Dow +208 and climbing. You just missed your last chance to BTFD.
Yes, and the 10-year yield is heading back to 3.0%, still well below the historical average. - "Winning"
The fuse has been lit on the Interest Rate swaps.
How $400 tn in losses in going to be socialized in going to be interesting.
Boner goes limp.
Is this really how we're gonna operate from now on, with a budget fight every month or so? Just when I think they've gone full-retard, they go full-retarder.
The short bus isn't long enough.
We all knew this was coming.
Shorts blowtorched again.
You never know what will come off the wall next.
..or into the fan.
As long as the 'markets' are up, that is all that matters to the 0.1% and f*ck the rest of the world, get them deeper and deeper in the Sh!t and enslaved
That optimistic expansion of multipes is going to occur on its own when Q3 earnings suck big weenie.
They'll make Q3 earning whatever they want to make Q3 earnings. Everything else is made up as they go along.
That, and does one want to buy the dip here to go through the same shit in a matter of weeks?
OK, I might pick up 3 percent to lose it again in a few weeks. I can not be the only one thinking this way.
I am going to keep my 10 foot pole in my pants.
Just a bounce off of the 200 day - you didn't think the robots were gonna miss that one did you?
Pick off fattened stops....then overnite we'll probably get 'bad news deal off' and back down to pick off those stops again. Easy as pie, the public is so dumb they don't realize they're being eaten alive by parasites.
Exactly, they will bounce this piece of shit around a few more times...the 11th hour is still aways away. They need to do some more chest pounding to impress the idiot electorate a bit more.
They will reach a deal..but it will done with a bit more theatrics.
It ain't over until Boehner sheds a tear or two.
Toldja boner was working for the squid. The whole congress is now devoted to generating trading volume.
Well, isn't this just special. We're going to give the profligate spenders, all of them, another trillion or so for more Solyndra's and windmills and get bupkis on controlling the debt. I think the Reps should just stand aside and watch the fire.
Reps, Dems, it doesn't matter...... Oh never mind
Yeah lets ralley on another 2 TRILLION dollars worth of debt! Who cares about their kids? Not to mention we get the YELLEN punch bowl to go with it... All I got to say is when this thing they created starts eating itself, the Fat lady on Wall St. wil sing so loud it will echo off the bluffs in the Hamptons...
I think Ole Yellin fit's the bill for Fat Lady on Wall Street.
Take Cover!!!!
where is the Macro chart?
OK...go for it....S&P 1,800 in 2 weeks....THEN what? 1,900 by Thanksgiving? 2,200 by Xmas? Sorry, just not buying this big hoax.
I remember the good ol days when Accounting was real.
The market is going to continue to go up until it collapses, and when it collapsed all assets will collapse, because it will be the mother of a collapses.
And it will not be predictable much like it was not last time..If people wanna try to ride the free money train higher and buy on any weakness go nuts..been working for years but Mr. Collapse is not going to knock on our door the day that all changes. I think it has been slowly changing the past months and all the printing in the worls is not going to make a difference.
The average American is not feeling any better and the fundamentals can only deviate from market reality for so long.
next headline hit "Obama will veto temp CR"
And in the meantime aside from these staged diversions, massive failures such as Oblahblah Care are not even mentioned, with less than 1% signing up for it due to 'affordable' equaling a luxury care payment per month plus 5 figure co-pays.
$635 million to create their website, and they didn't bother to beta test it. OR, they created it like that on purpose.
LONG LONG LONG
LONG LONG LONG
never press the SELL KEY
Wash DC sez 'ALL CLEAR!'
Reminds me of the old 'Here....hold my beer a second....I'm gonna try this!'
'Pent-up'?
I think he meant 'TENT' up.
At some point that silly relationship breaks, hopefully. Adding another 8% to total stock market value means creating an ilusion of $1.6 trillion in paper wealth for the buy and sell crowd (as long as they don't sell), while the Fed balance sheet increases by some $100-$200 billion only.
All this in the light of what will most likely be pathetic earnings, despite the Fed/ECB effort to keep the Euro up. Euro 5% higher than last year, european sales 5% lower...
we have seen the momo's break. the news is out, its all 'ok' now. expected mkt surge, check. when it, the 'agreement' actually occurs, might we see another no-taper phenom? --when 'everyone' is expecting more surges, but the mkt doesnt comply.....then that indicates a new realtionship, call it diminishing returns if you like. 'everyone', even zh'ers, expect 1750 at this point. and it will look for a time like we are going there, like right now.
the momo vs spx vs 'what everyone' knows are the relationships to watch for the next week....is it intact, or might we, as cramer would call it, a healthy 'true correction' of 10% (that will morph into something will claws).