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House Republicans "Far From Ready" To Pass A Clean CR
Equity markets are holding their gains despite the bond-market's bid this morning (and weakness in Nov bills).. it seems the optimism is a little premature...
Source close to last night's talks tell me CR deal is not as close as many press reports; House Rs far from ready to move on a clean CR
— Robert Costa (@robertcostaNRO) October 11, 2013
Everyone is pointing to national polls blaming the Repblicans and this there is pressure to act... do not forget "All politics is local"
Via BofAML,
Looking at the national polls, one would think that a deal is long overdue. A CBS News poll conducted on October 1 and 2 found that 72% of Americans disapproved of the strategy of shutting down the government to try to battle the Affordable Care Act and just 25% approved. Polls also show Republicans are getting hurt more than Democrats.
All politics is local
A bigger risk is that, in the end, the national polls may not matter. Gerrymandering has not only helped create a deeply divided Congress, it has made most seats in the House safe. Recall that currently the House is divided into 232 Republican, 200 Democrats and 3 unfilled seats. Before the shutdown, 175 Democratic seats and 211 Republican seats were “currently safe,” according to the Rothenberg Report. In other words, Republicans need just 7 additional seats out of 49 “lean” or “toss up” districts to reach the 218 majority. As Charlie Cook argues, it will take a “tsunami” year for Republicans to lose the House.1 He notes that in each of the four recent “tsunami” elections, the party of the President was the one pushed out of power in the House.
Cook also points out that the shelf life of negative poll ratings is short. Favorability ratings for both House Speaker Gingrich and President Clinton dropped dramatically during the 1995-6 shutdown, but had almost fully recovered a few months later. A shutdown right in front of the election may be politically dangerous, but one a year before may not.
The Iowa electronic market offers a less sanguine view of Republican prospects. The trading volumes in this market are very low, so the results should be interpreted with caution. Nonetheless, they are illustrative. Before the shutdown, the market was pricing in about a 20% probability of Republicans losing the House in the midterm elections. Since the shutdown that probability has been bouncing around 40%.
Who gets hurt?
So if incumbent politicians don’t get hurt, who does? There are several ironies to the government shutdown. First, the shutdown hits the wrong part of the budget. It is meant to be a way to stop the fast-approaching Affordable Care Act. However, the Affordable Care Act is a mandatory spending program and is not affected by the shutdown. More broadly, the shutdown hits discretionary spending, a part of the budget that has been cut repeatedly and is falling as a share of GDP. Rapidly growing entitlements are exempt.
The second irony is that the shutdown is a step backward in fixing the budget deficit. The House has voted unanimously to pay furloughed Federal workers retroactively. Once the shutdown is over, the Senate is likely to concur. As a result, the shutdown is effectively a multi-week paid vacation for many Federal employees, with no lasting reduction in government pay. At the same time, the process of closing and reopening the government adds several billion dollars to the deficit. Moreover, the longer the shutdown, the bigger the shock to confidence, spending and tax revenues.
Who really gets hurt? In essence, the shutdown is effectively putting Federal workers on a paid vacation so they cannot help individuals or firms that depend on “nonessential” government services. Hmmm.
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Which Republican Party?
The name is Cruz........Ted Cruz.
The one with the cool dad.....from Cuba.
Fuck your Grassy Knoll.
Can we at least sit down and have a mojito?
"However, the Affordable Care Act is a mandatory spending program and is not affected by the shutdown."
How is a "tax" as ruled by the supreme court a mandatory spending program?
Bias MSM polls showing Repubs are to blame...both are to blame.
They said they had to pass it so you could see what's in it and you still haven't read the whole thing?
See the "Too Legit to Quit" clause on thomas.gov
It was convenient, at the time, to label it a tax.
Now, it better suits their purpose to label it a spending program.
After fully implemented, it will be labeled an entitlement.
It all depends on what your definition of "it" is.
Political doublespeak 101.
I just took a dump and gold is down $20 from pre-dump levels.
wow.
Get this man some Ex-Lax.
I'm a buyer at 1200, 1100 and 1000!
Well who needs gold, when there's hints of more endless blank checks for everyone!
WE NEED MORE POLITICAL PROMISES AND BULLSHIT WORDS!!
IT'S THE ONLY WAY TO KEEP THE PIPEDREAM MAKET AT WHERE IT IS!!
What's EROEI on that? And can it be compressed into liquid for transport?
Peter Schiff: Gold - Out with the Debt Ceiling, in with the Debt Target!
This circus is getting more hilarious by the day if it was not so tragic. Chinese are not lost in translation this time and what ever President Obama dreams about Debt and how it is not increasing with the increasing Debt Ceiling, they are just buying Gold. http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/peter-schiff-gold-out-with-debt-ceiling.html#
the guy who was supposed to bring in the bribe money dropped his bag yesterday in congress...
NO BRIBES NO DEALS!!!!
Dems are going to win back the House now. Infinite debt.
I hope your wrong but with the media playing the patsy your probably right which means prepare for tyranny.
I disagree completely. The reason we have our current situation is easily explained. GOP support is broad but thin. Dem support is limited but very deep. A look a MI, PA or OH shows red with a few blue patches - the urban areas where the Dem candidate can expect 70-80% of the "vote" (many times from 99% of the precinct voters - lol). GOP legislatures have also made it nearly impossible to elect the other party.
So a Dem president can eke out enough from the cities to tip the states while on the ground, the GOP can win a majority with 50-55% anywhere outside a "Red Zone". When folks talk about "national mood" what they really mean is "media mood".
why the fuck cant the gop grow some fucking balls.
dont fucking raise the debt ceiling, unless this asshole defunds obamacare.
there is no law in the constitution that the debt ceiling must be raised, dont fucking give in, we need the system to collapse anyways, what better way for it to collapse.
it will all be for the better in the end, do the right thing, and DONT FUCKING RAISE SHIT.
Boner and Ryan even have their pals like Limbaugh yelling at them they have backing of tons of people to stand firm against more debt...but seems they listen to their Bankster masters more.
how about instead of defunding obamacare (yet) they just demand that the white house prick and senate pass a budget - something this asshole hasn't done.
Your post seems to assume the two party system is a two party system. And there is absolutely no evidence for that.
The GOP is destined to remain sissies because of who they are and who they appeal to. Both the base and the politicians are in opposite camps. The GOP is business-oriented, Dems are labor. The GOP is mainly white, the Dems majority minority. The GOP tends rural, Dems almost exclusively urban. The group talk differently to outsiders and themselves. Just noting that most GOP supporters would be put off with the ravings of Reid, that blinking idiot Pelosi or the grabbag of demagogues constantly talking about "helping" the "working class".
Boner " Come on guys its easy just bend over and grab yor ankles like this...see!!"
Nothing is moving much except PMs. Makes a ton of sense ...
What I don't understand is how, with such regular obvious raids and apparent control of the market, PMs ever go up and how they were able to have a 10- year bull market and why they don't just dispense with the pretense and mark it down to zero already.
Mere posturing by a bunch of impotent pricks. They will try and take it to the wire, before capitulating once again; and the market has quite simply called their bluff.
Hey, does this all mean more green shoots for stawks?
TPTB will take Gold down to where it is all sold off...to foreigners...then they will let it go up as it is no threat anymore in the USA..you will not be able to buy enough of it to matter..just aa trinket or two....and that is not a threat to a FRN....but the new owners might have other ideas about our FRN´s
According to reports, the Tea Party is holding up "progress." I hope they continue to stand firm, but I will really be surprised if they do. They are mostly just regular people up against a great many dark and powerful forces. Benedicantur a Deo.
crazy, gold dropped 20 bucks in 5 min. whos is selling all that gold and what are they buying?
Why don't they just keep opening every morning with rumors a deal HAS been done....then we can have +300 DOW days 4eva!
They were ready to make a deal? I must of missed that one. I'm still reading about Tuesdays deal. I need a deal traker app for all my deal info needs.... Apple.. are you listening?
You are right, the shut down is stupid. This part of government has also been very cut. It doess nothing to entitelment payments. The biggest part of government is not the people, buildings and national parks, it is the entitlement transfer payments. That is the biggest part of the real government budget and nothing has been fixed with the shutdown.
Hurry UP TRUCKERS blockade DC....if they do will it be reported? something out of the blue needs to get the shit storm of change going...calling all national guard units to stand down, small business trucking owners have more balls than most of us on ZH..god speed.
It's better to pay the 95% of Department of Education employees to stay home. At least they aren't causing problems. What a deal for the American people.
From the trucker's own mouths:
The loose plan is for the truckers to roll together at slower than normal speeds down the beltway, snarling the traffic and sending a diesel-powered message that they want the government to start serving the people and following the Constitution, they said. Complaints include fuel taxes, tolls and increasing regulation that they say has made it almost impossible to make a decent living.
“My health care premiums tripled October the first,” said Higgins, who has a wife and four children at a home he only gets to see once a month because he has to stay on the road to pay all the bills, fees and taxes. He blamed his sharp rise on “Obamacare . . .it should be a choice to the American people whether they have insurance or whether they don’t have insurance.”
The federal government has grabbed far more power than the Constitution gives it, the truckers said.
All these actions are utterly predictable. It's the mad scramble at the end when everyone is going for a piece of the pie. When our only hope is authorizing more debt (the surefire way to prosperity) what does that say about our future? Now that we've "evolved" from an aspirational society to a "got your check yet?" society the focus is increasingly on shorter and shorter time frames. If folks don't save a dime then why worry about the future? Why make any plans, bother improving yourself or get trained in another skill?
The latest nonsense attributed to Plunder Woman is her belief that folks would work harder if paid more. She failed to explain why farmers work their tails off or why it makes sense to pay folks more money for a task they are performing badly. C'est la vie
Very astute.
I'm in the minority, I'm sure, but I believe the world is at (or past) capacity for growth. However, I don't believe we have to flare and burn out like a match, even though that's what we're doing. We can all make individual choices, but as a species, this is the hive we've made.
i gurantee u know deal is reached today,but we will here how ''progress'' has been made, just so the ''market'' does not go down.
the real truth will come out at 4:01 pm how talks have gone nowhere and no further talks are scheduled at this time, but thankfully they will have 2 more days to come up with a new rumor so markets dont tank .
Who exactly are running these polls, and should they be trusted?
Who knows how they sampled to create these polls. A few extra from group A skews it one way, a few extra from group B skews it another way. Considering 50% are drawing government checks it's skewed for moar.
A good pollster can get you the exact results you pay for, + or - a few points.
a) who cares b) of course not
Shhhhhh. Please don't menition that the Bamster is below 37% in the favorables. Might screw the whole thing up. :)
Do I get double pay not to work on Columbus Da?- Shutdown & Holiday Pay.
Signed,
Gov't worker
I believe political correctness required that it be renamed "Fucking Indigenous Peoples in the Ass Day".