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The Week That Was: October 7th - 11th, 2013

Tyler Durden's picture




 

This objective report concisely summarizes important macro events over the past week. It is not geared to push an agenda. Impartiality is necessary to avoid costly psychological traps, which all investors are prone to, such as confirmation, conservatism, and endowment biases.

 

Summed up the equity market did this...

 

Positives

  1. Typo leads to $14 billion in Spanish growth debt – Predictably in the new normal, Spreads tighten
  2. If you want to trade the debt ceiling debacle, we suggest moving from cash markets to the repo market, via repo pathway
  3. Booya: Fed arbitrarily adds $180 billion to non-revolving consumer credit – think of the economic growth that will result soon!
  4. JPY continues its volatility, leads S&P higher, while T-bill yields spike on default worries
  5. The Squid says sell your gold, cuz it’s a ‘slam dunk’ trade… promise
  6. Relatively smooth 3-yr auction confirms default fear confined to short-term bonds for now
  7. Alcoa ‘beats’ Q3 estimates… if you exclude recurring non-recurring expenses
  8. Italian & Spanish bond volatility is now less than… the US? Move along
  9. Yellen is nominated to Fed Chair, yay ‘growth’ can resume!
  10. Headlines suggest progress is being made on the debt-ceiling talks (though Republicans remain confused)

 

Negatives

  1. SocGen reiterates it’s all about flow, says market could correct 15% upon a Fed taper
  2. POMO lifts, IB margin hike taketh away – markets get antsy over shutdown
  3. Nikkei plunges on the back of tax hikes, stronger yen
  4. IB margin hike reminds us that the market is driven by leveraged momentum chasing, er, fundamentals
  5. Psst: $441 billion in US debt matures by November 15th
  6. 1-month T-bill yield explodes, highest sinch Lehman
  7. Economic confidence index collapses at fastest pace since Lehman
  8. Fidelity no longer holds any debt maturing around the government X-date
  9. Iceland is what happens Larry, when you put in capital controls – fx shortfall looms
  10. Dow crosses below 200DMA for first time in 2013 – BTFATH re-set
  11. Interactive Brokers hikes margins a second time, TSLA impacted
  12. As we suspected, overnight repo rate soars
  13. Consumer Confidence Slumps To 9 month low

 

Additional

 

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Fri, 10/11/2013 - 17:05 | 4046465 involuntarilybirthed
involuntarilybirthed's picture

 

And the VIX????????   13ish is a good average/good floor and the spikes look inviting.  Happy hunting.     Political churn.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EVIX+Interactive#symbol=^vix;range=2y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

 

Fri, 10/11/2013 - 18:28 | 4046659 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

News Flash! 

Societal leverage reaching critical mass!

Fri, 10/11/2013 - 18:59 | 4046728 NOZZLE
NOZZLE's picture

Who cares, Bhoenerer just threw in the F-king towel, they gave up the sequester cuts.  why not just offer to stop by the whitehouse and offer to lick obanga's taint while you are at. 

Fri, 10/11/2013 - 19:24 | 4046774 MrTouchdown
MrTouchdown's picture

John "The Raging" Boehner is not above the occaisional licking of taint. Besides, if he refuses to lick it, he'll just brand himself a racist again.

Fri, 10/11/2013 - 19:27 | 4046775 DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

From a Dow Theory perspective:

 

Positive: Trailing stop raised. If primary trend turned negative, losses would be contained.

Negative: Stocks set up on Friday Oct, 11 for a primary bear market signal. If Oct, 8 lows violated, primary bear market would be signaled, as explained here:

 

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2013/10/dow-theory-update-for-october...

 

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