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Key Events And Issues In The Coming Week
The ongoing government shutdown will continue to affect the quality and/or the release schedule of official macro data. In the meantime, survey data is probably the best set of indicators to follow. The Empire (NY) and Philly Fed surveys are likely the highlight for this week. The US TIC data will get released as scheduled on Wednesday. Given the evidence of large capital outflows in recent months it will be interesting if this trend has abated. Data that will likely not be released this week includes September CPI, Housing Starts, and Industrial Production. It's ok: one can just draw a trendline and extrapolate. That's what the BLS does.
Outside the US fiscal dispute, the week will be dominated by the usual mid-month cluster of China data. Trade numbers already released over the weekend were much weaker than expected. The week will also bring CPI on Monday as well as GDP, IP, FAI and Chinese retail sales on Friday: as far all Chinese data has been a downright disappointment if not pure disaster now that the recent liquidity boost has finally tapered, even as debt soars to new records.
Monday, Oct 14
- US Fed speeches: Bernanke (FOMC voter) via prerecorded video at Bank of Mexico conference
- Russia MPC: GS and consensus have policy rate (1- to 7-day auction-based minimum repo rate) unchanged at 5.50%.
- Also interesting: Australia Housing Finance (Aug)
Tuesday, Oct 15
- US Fed speeches: Dudley (FOMC voter), Fisher (FOMC non-voter)
- Australia MPC minutes
- US Empire Manufacturing (Oct): consensus +7.4, previous +6.3
- UK CPI (Sep): consensus +2.6%yoy, previous +2.7%yoy
- Brazil Retail Sales (Aug): consensus +4.7%yoy, previous +6.0%yoy
- Poland CPI (Sep): consensus +1.1%yoy, previous +1.1%yoy
- Israel CPI (Sep): consensus +1.6%yoy, previous +1.3%yoy
- Also interesting: France Harmonized CPI (Sep), Argentina CPI (Sep), Philippines Overseas Remittances (Aug), Peru GDP (Aug), Canada Existing Home Sales (Sep)
Wednesday, Oct 16
- US Fed speeches: George (FOMC voter), Fisher (FOMC non-voter), Pianalto (FOMC non-voter)
- ECB Draghi speaks in Frankfurt
- US CPI (Sep): consensus +0.2%qoq, previous +0.1%qoq [release provided no partial government shutdown]
- US TIC Data (Aug): previous $+56.7bn [release provided no partial government shutdown]
- US Fed Beige Book
- Euro Area Harmonized CPI (Sep, final): previous (Flash) +1.3%yoy
- Brazil monthly Real GDP (Aug): consensus -0.10%mom, previous -0.33%mom
- Brazil IGP-10 Inflation (Oct): consensus +1.17%qoq, previous +1.05%qoq
- Also interesting: UK Employment Statistics (Aug), Israel GDP (Q2 final), US Homebuilders Survey (Oct)
Thursday, Oct 17
- US Fed speeches: Evans (FOMC voter), Fisher (FOMC non-voter), Kocherlakota (FOMC non-voter)
- US Housing Starts (Aug): consensus +2.1%, previous +0.9% [release provided no partial government shutdown]
- US Initial Jobless Claims: consensus 335K, previous 374K
- US IP (Sep): consensus +0.4%, previous +0.4% [release provided no partial government shutdown]
- US Philly Fed Survey (Sep): previous +15.0, consensus +22.3
- Brazil MPC minutes (Oct)
- Poland MPC minutes (Oct)
- Also interesting: UK Retail Sales (Sep), Japan Reuter Tankan (Oct)
Friday, Oct 18
- US Fed speeches: Dudley (FOMC voter), Evans (FOMC voter), Stein (FOMC voter), Tarullo (FOMC non-voter)
- China GDP (Q3): consensus +7.8%yoy, previous +7.5%yoy
- China IP (Sep): consensus +10.2%yoy, previous +10.4%yoy
- China Retail Sales (Sep): consensus +13.5%yoy, previous +13.4%yoy
- Canada CPI (Sep): consensus +1.0%yoy, previous +1.1%yoy
- Philippines BoP (Sep): previous $-318mn yoy
- Also interesting: China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD), Thailand FX Reserves (Oct), Argentina Economic Activity Index (Aug)
And from SocGen, here is the big picture summary of key issues in the coming week:
US DATA IN SHUTDOWN
The on-going government shutdown is cutting off the flow of several important data reports. The few releases coming out are, moreover, being met with some scepticism as the on-going stand-off in Washington raises concerns that this could exert a more significant drag on economic activity. Beware of double sided risks, however. Downside tail risks are well known, but equally if a solution is found quickly, investors could be caught in a whirlwind as asset prices re-price both recovery and Fed tapering. It seems markets are pricing a very prolonged delay. With mid-term elections due in November 2014, prolonged delay however seems the politically most dangerous tactic for the Republicans.
CHINA DATA TO DELIVER MIXED NEWS
Chinese September export data posted an unexpected contraction at -0.4% yoy. Part of this is due to statistical effects, but as warned by lead China Economist, Wei Yao, the trade data are likely to be the first in a batch of more mixed hard data on the Chinese economy, thus closing the window of positive data surprises from China. In the wake of the crisis, China’s investment boom and easy global money brought a significant lift to emerging economies. We can now just echo the recent warnings from the IMF that structural reforms are urgently needed. The knowledge that emerging economies are today in better shape than in the run-up to previous crisis is only reassuring if policy makers take the right action. That policymakers from several emerging economies instead choose to criticise the IMF for an excess of pessimism this weekend in Washington is to our minds not very reassuring.
Source: GS, SocGen
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The out of work nonessential government workers face-off the 14 million illegal immigrants in Thunderdome for the single 29.5 hour Walmart greeting job.
Marco Rubio will the the ring offical. Let's get ready to RRRRRumble!
an ECB mouthpiece announced this weekend that European governments must set money aside for failing banks. In 2014 stress tests are to be conducted and any pitfalls should be covered by state guarantees.
btw, The word used was "WARNED".
Happy Canucklehead Thanksgiving to one and all.
U have to admit...We were smart not to put it so close to christmas
American Thanksgiving is still weeks away, but Christmas ads are already starting...marketing companies here can't seem to figure out, that obnoxious, invasive advertising (brainwashing) is not going to entice me into spending money on crap that nobody on my list wants or needs.
Maybe this "deadlock" is simply to delay a bunch of reports to keep the housing BS going a little longer.