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Default Risk - You Can Run But You Can't Hide
The market is rapidly adjusting from imminent default to pricing in the risk of a debt ceiling debacle in February. 10/17 Bills are unchanged, Oct/Nov Bills are improving, but Feb 2014 Bills are now slamming higher in yield +5bps to 9bps for now... How much longer can the powers that be keep the ever inflating balloon under water?
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No one knows what the fuck is going on. Just the way I like it. What is Nero doing today?
Golfing?
Miss Nero is planning her next trip to spain with 300 of her close friends on privet jets
Just need to have that debt ceiling raised so that the trip can be paid for... with new public debt.
Do you know that in the Kruger National Park in South Africa "Bullshit" (buffalo bullshit) is actually sold in the gift shops? Maybe Nero is in a gift shop "somewhere"?
T-Bills doing this, stocks doing that, the one thing that I know is that no one has a clue as to what is going to happen next. All people are trying to do is handicap what they're seeing in those little flashing red headlines on their screens. I assure you, if there is no deal by Thursday, the perception of default becomes more powerful than an actual default and at that point, look out below. The Senate and the House will not do a deal until they are forced, by the markets, to do a deal.
I can assure you, George Soros, Warren Buffet, Koch brothers and other assorted aholes have a clue as to whats coming next. They will profit nicely from their plan.
shifting non existing troops across his maps....
Fed whack-A-mole, and everyones all-in!
Well, good luck with all that, have fun gettin your free dollas.
So many paper fucking promises and unfunded liabilities, so few assets of real value...
hedge accordingly.
It's not exactly easy to hedge accordingly. We are slowly running low on paper fucking promises and unfunded liabilities, too. More and more assets of real value are harder and harder to come by.
Life is hard, get over it.
Honestly speaking, the more I get over it, the less hard it seems.
Life is easy if you just don't get a fuck and strap on the last lifejacket when you see the morons decide to have a campfire in the lifeboat...
There's something comforting about a campfire. Any marshmallows in this boat's emergency ration kit?
Word is, active military arent getting their checks.
National Security card. Trumps everything, sorry
A bit off topic, my apologies, but in terms of default here is the default of importance should it actually occur. Apparently some commentary out there indicating that the SNAP program may be suspended starting in or for the month of November. As one of our resident commentators says, "hedge accordingly".
http://fox13now.com/2013/10/14/utah-families-on-food-stamps-could-be-cut-off-soon/
They will migrate to a "free" zone, of which there are many.
1)Write down US GDP and US tax revenue.
2)Write down US debt and assume a 3-5% interest rate (play with the numbers here a bit).
3)Do the math.
4) Shit yourself.
What will be the trigger? War? Dollar collapse? EBT cards "accidentally" turned off? Interest rate hike? $80 billion / month down to $70 billion / month? or the White House garden begins to rot...
Does it matter at all what the trigger will be? I don't think so ...
You are right... it doesn't matter... just thinking what and when...
The trigger will be an attack on the USD, with China and others dumping their USD currency reserves on the open market. Only after they have divested themselves of US Bonds first. Could take a while, but it's coming as soon as more country-to-country trade agreements are in place so they don't have to use the USD for settlement.
That does seem the most likely scenario. One caveat, we are in another dimension of space and time...nothing seems to be working like it used to or as it should be. So much manipulation, corruption, etc... worldwide.
War would be a prerequisite to china dumping ... otherwise it would send their currency through the roof, killing their exports.
It will happen, but the dollar is too central to every developed economy to fall for anything less than war.
See above
The Trigger Point has already happened. The Derivatives Bubble has been popped.
http://usawatchdog.com/systems-are-breaking-in-treasury-bond-market-dr-jim-willie/
All of the Debt Limit Increase bullshit is just a "Staged Theater" to provide an excuse for what is going to happen.
Care for some popcorn?
How long?
About 1,000,0000 years. They've got most of the modern democratic world's money. Once they have a little more it is up to them to set the price of air.
This country is being made a fool's pardise by our leaders of this cub scout collection of idiots. Milestones
Things are great once you get away from the coasts and the district of criminals
Anyone else hearing that active military are not getting paid this week?
http://forums.militarytimes.com/showthread.php?1597165-No-pay-on-the-15th&s=71d106f31fe71346f8823c782464f6dd
Thats ok we got plenty of cash, I just got a new $100 bill and it still says "SERIES 2009" not sure why, but apparently we have so much cash printed we are still using the 2009 stash, some 4 and a half years supply still I guess.
The US should better pay the bills of the debtor-countries. Otherwise there could be a Swiss-Chinese alliance trying to liberate the country.
You would think there are enough intelligent people out there to figure out the risk baked into the system in general and sovereign bonds in particular to force the yield up at least.
US treasury debt is the least risky asset in the universe.HAHAHAHAHAH
Yeah yeah yeah, what matters is stock indexes will do their usual thing (2 hours of red followed by a 60 degree ascent into green)..
My short positions have been so fucking decimated it's not even funny... I won't close them because I can't believe this can go on much longer. Yet I've been wrong for what is a long time.
Unless you are inside the loop, you are out of it. Get it?