This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
What Recovery? Economic Slide Continues As Empire Fed Misses By Most In 5 Months
In what feels like the first actionable macro data release in a while, the Empire Fed Manufacturing survey (yes "soft" data but it's all we have to play with for now) missed expectations by the most in 5 months. Against consensus of 7.00, the 1.52 print is the lowest in 5 months and the 3rd miss in a row. Once again, the employment sub-index slumped - now at its lowest since July (dismissing that August spike that we now know was driven by the exuberant last-minute spending of government budgets). Of course while the curent business conditions slid, expectations for six months from now held steady (even though shipments and new orders expectations slid a little). With business conditions now anchored around zero for 3 years, this "soft" data indicator is not exactly the driver of growth hopes that equities seem to believe in.
Not exactly the bright shining light of growth that equities appear to reflect...
Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 7134 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
The Fed is doing a terrible job of meeting their two mandates. Obviously they should be spending 200$ billion USD/month. What could go wrong?
The Fed is OBVIOUSLY not printing enough. Print, Print and Print MOAR!
Its a good thing the recession ended in 2009 otherwise we would be in terrible economic shape.
yes, but still why do they report the bad news? arent these people in furloughs? close them down! immediately goldy
It's a good thing unemployment is under 8% or there might be a problem finding jobs for all the kids
Recession ending, unemployment under 8%.......these must be Bernanke's green shoots! Kind of like the green shoots sprouting up through the cracks in the major roads networking Detroit! Progress, progress everywhere.
Old Yellen is a female Paul Krugman. When she takes charge she will make Bernanke look like a hawk.
Wouldn't be surprised to see her double it.
Remember, Obama wants loose econ policy. Or is that Val Jarrett--defacto President of the US.
Fear not. The reign of Janet the Yellen approaches. She will reinstitute the march to eternal, increasing prosperity.
Will she prevent the baby boomers from dying off? Because demographics is a bitch, and there's no amount of stimulus that's going to keep the great baby-boomer die-off from being a shit storm. Something like 80% of real estate value (not houses, net value) is owned by boomers. And guess what's going to be returning to the market over the next 20 years. Good luck Janet. You've got a pretty big squirt gun. Maybe even a power washer. But that's a tsunami that's coming.
Bingo! I don't care if Ol' Yellen prints $20 Trillion a month, we're on the downslope of the shitnami and nothing can be done to stop the undershit of that wave.
She'll just keep increasing the amount until she gets the desired result.
I love you guys. I try to explain to people how the baby boomer's checking out of the planet will affect everything and get blank stares.
Print MOAR Yellen, coming to a theater near you.
Please, all this has always been about power and control, period. They probably are printing 200 billion per month. However, that kind of money in the hands of the people actually doing the work would lead to hyperinflation. You have to be in the club, only the "right" people can handle that kind of money. Nothing changes until the dollar dies or the guillotines roll...
Same as it ever was.
Inconceivable!
just means more QE for longer....buy em!
was there any doubt?
what if... America would inlist every young kid in the army... for 5 years...
AND INVADE AMERICA!
unemployment solved! And Obama would have all the canon fodder he wants!
It's happening already now. They're called the Crips and Bloods.
We'll leave them alone as long as they don't have any of those I-talian roots.
If they were the Capos and the Blodos there would be government task forces jailing every last one of them.
5 years is too long, just nuke every US city from orbit and get it over with.
Bullish for construction sector.
Yeah, all of those broken windows!
"just nuke every US city from orbit"
It's the only way to be sure.
why from orbit? Nasa can't even do that! The only once who can still do that are the Russians AND THEY ARE THE ONLY SANE ONCE!!!
And it's being taken care of. Remember those 4 "lost" nukes?
Los Angeles, New York, Chicago and Washington.
Cant they spare Chicago, and take out San Francisco? Preferably while Congress is in recess. If you know what I mean and I think you do.
Yeah, like Malia and Sasha are going to be drafted into the military. Given their connections, they'd probably be put in as members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, while all they're probably qualified to do (as their father recently did) is make sandwiches in the mess hall.
"Beating expectations", all the way down...
same as it ever was...
Exceeding expectations all the way down,LoP.
Truly exceptional in fact.
I think the USS Titanic's stern is now vertical, with Captain Obozo in the bridgehouse.
Yes, "exceeding" is probably more PC than "beating" anyway.
Like Peter Schiff keeps saying and GS keeps decrying, QE is about to increase. It is about facts and math, not about some GS monkey dishing out the team clusterfuk's PR.
It's about a liquidity trap. Easy to get into, hard to get out of. At some point we WILL have to gnaw our own arm off to get out of it, but we're not prepared to do that yet. We still haven't gotten over the denial that we're caught.
Exactly. Things will only get worse as there are really only two choices left with respect to the math and the laws of Nature and physics. They are; 1) decrease the liabilities or 2) work to innovate/improve/discover new assets/funding to cover those liabilites. Unfortunately, work requires very real inputs, including energy (calories). Due to all the capital and resource mis-allocation and mal-investment, I suspect we have long since passed the point of no return.
Hedge accordingly (it's all one can do anyway).
No one could have predicted the downturn.
Honey I shrunk the economy....shrinking the economy, they keep taking away chairs and the music is still playing......lets print more chairs.
They need to get some money moving in the economy...it aint happening...and when it does....they won't control it....
Damn those republicans holding the country's economy hostage. Why if it wasn't for them and this debt ceiling fiasco combined with the sequester, I'd have this economy humming along.
~Zero
All sounds pretty bullish
I wonder what the real numbers look like if the fudged for-public-consumption numbers are this bad?
dont worry, its 9 am, time to pump futures to the moon before the open, then we will be told later on how they are closer to a deal, just like they were close to a deal on thursday, friday, and yesterday.
its all fucking bullshit.
terrible earnings across the board, KO, C, yet this fucking joke of a market is fucking headed toward a green start, but dont worry guys, earnings are what matters in this market, not the fed or anything,
None of us could see this coming. Everything seemed great until just recently. It's quite a shock and a surprise for all of us.
So Janet Yellen's older cousin Ellen married into the Mellon family. They mercilessily called her Ellen Yellen-Mellon until she jumped off a bridge in 1974.
True story.
Well, that's 1 of em gone at least.
Ellen Yellen married a Mellon.....
Ellen Yellin had a great fall...
The mall was empty this holiday weekend but I must say IKEA was impressively packed with mostly Yutes wheeling out all sorts of pressed wooden furniture and gadgets and little Thingamajigs to hang on their walls....
Wait until they need to move for a better job and have to carry all that CRAP!
They won't have to worry about that, IKEA junk falls apart on it's own within a few months.
Whe nthe Yutes bail, the crap will be left in the molding house.
BTW, am still ing making the weekly Friday afternnon trip to the Super WM w mom for catfood. The store is still relatively empty compared to just one year ago. And no, WM did not put up a competing store w/in 15 miles (which they are fond of doing).
Ikea's good fortune is related to the bankruptcy of Furniture Brands and Thomasville Furniture's store closings. The customer, tapped out, is moving downscale. Similar to Walmart and dollar stores thriving while Sears and Penney's slowly die.
The American middle class is dying. Companies must adjust their focus to cater to either the rich or the poor, there's nothing in the middle.
Like manufacturing data has any relevance compared to Bernanke's balance sheet. BUY.
When the music plays, you HAVE to dance.
Chuck Shumer says do anything to keep the market up.
Washington judges the health of the economy by equities. Forget about the rest.
The nubers continue not to matter to the US equities market. When the Republicans and Democrats reach a deal, the market will rally. PM's are the ones that will be taking a beating in the meantime.
Good, wake me when gold is back under $300 an ounce. That's the last time I took delivery and it was less than 15 years ago. Do you expect to live more that 15 years? I certainly do.
bbrib,
I believe you are correct.
Somebody at the top of US Gov is making a monkey look genial by contrast.
There was a phrase for this when I was growing up.
no jobs for you
http://macaulay.cuny.edu/eportfolios/tomkiewiczs10/files/2010/03/nycmanufacturing1.jpg
(yes "soft" data but it's all we have to play with for now)
Manufacturing in New York Area Cools as Sales, Hiring Slow
15 October 2013, by Ben Schenkel (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2013-10-15/manufacturing-in-new-york-area-cools-as-sales-hiring-slow.html