As House Republicans Fail To Get The Needed Votes, A Reminder Of What Goldman Warned

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Update: Sure enough, NO HOUSE VOTE TONIGHT ON FISCAL IMPASSE PLAN, LAWMAKER SAYS

In a repeat of the Sequester farce, in which Boehner was unable to even get the needed votes to pass the House Republicans' version of their own bill, the debt ceiling impasse is becoming a sequester sequel deja vu when McConnell and Joe Biden had to hammer out a deal over the impotent political corpse of John Boehner. The reason, as various beltway journalists report, in this case the NRO, that House Republicans are now set to postpone tonight’s vote on their plan to end the fiscal impasse is that "The votes aren’t there," says a leadership aide. "We’ve been amending the bill all day, but we’ve been unable to get people around this strategy." As the NRO's Robert Costa adds, this development leaves Speaker John Boehner with few options as Thursday’s debt-ceiling deadline nears, and it throws the action back toward the Senate, which has been working on a bipartisan package.

The tension started off earlier in the afternoon, when the conservative outfit Heritage Action said it opposed the measure, and rank-and-file lawmakers normally supportive of leadership expressed alarm that they had shut down the government and would get nothing for it except a punitive measure hurting their own staff’s healthcare, according to GOP chiefs of staff.

WaPo adds:

The Republican-controlled House will vote Tueday night on a plan to reopen the federal government and avoid a first-ever default on the nation’s debt, only two days before the government exhausts its ability to borrow money.

 

But it was far from clear whether the Republican proposal, if approved, could attract enough support in the Democratic-controlled Senate to end Washington’s political crisis. The plan contained several provisions that Democrats have strongly opposed.

 

* * *

 

Even the inklings of a House proposal that emerged earlier Tuesday drew immediate condemnation from Democrats, primarily because the plan would include significant changes to President Obama’s signature health-care law. Unlike the Senate proposal, the House plan originally included a two-year repeal of a medical device tax and a provision eliminating the employer health-care contribution for members of Congress and White House officials.

 

Later Tuesday, House Republicans regrouped around the new version of their bill, which dropped the medical device tax provision, and officials said they would bring it the House floor tonight. The new proposal was also unlikely to win bipartisan support, in part because it would fund federal agencies only through Dec. 15, creating the threat of another government shutdown just before Christmas. But it could serve as a framework for further negotiations.

Which brings us to what Goldman, so far accurately, predicted would happen earlier today: namely a delay which pushes the US beyond the symbolic October 17 X-Date, loudly bandied about by fearmongers such as Jack Lew as a the drop dead date, when in reality the X-Date when the US truly runs out of cash, is a range between October 22 and November 1, something the GOP is well aware of.

When is the debt limit X Date?

Quote Goldman:

A deal could still be enacted by October 17, but there are reasons to think it could go a little longer. First, although Congress has taken the October 17 deadline surprisingly seriously, the Treasury will still have funds after that date, and Congress knows this. Second, if the House amends the Senate bill or passes its own instead, this will delay enactment.

It now seems that the House can not even pass its own bill, which means the GOP will have to hammer something out between the Senate and the House versions, steamrolling over Boehner once again.

Third, the Senate could present a procedural obstacle if even one member objects, since consideration can take as long as five days in that chamber. Fourth, if the House is eventually forced to take the Senate plan for a lack of viable alternative, Republican leaders are unlikely to want to hold that vote until the deadline, if not later. There is still a chance Congress will manage to get the debt limit raised by October 17, but a resolution later this week or even this coming weekend also appears possible.

In other words, as a result of today's most recent fiasco, it appears virtually assured that no deal will be hammered in the next 30 or so hours before the first X-Date, and the US will enter the cross into the dreaded X-Date time horizon. The only two questions then are i) who will negotiate the final deal and what will it look like, and ii) when will this take place. Because once the October 17 deadline crosses, which immediately removes the impetus for action, it is likely that the House will once again stall as long as possible, this time making the November 1 Social Security payout deadline the truly drop dead one, beyond which the US will indeed default unless there is some concrete deal on the table.

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Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:05 | 4058327 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

You mean this whole debate and the supposed urgency of the "crisis" is fake?    Well kick me in the balls and call me Shirley.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:08 | 4058337 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

You got to know when to hold 'um

Know when to fold 'em

what now?

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:07 | 4058344 Call me Ishmael
Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:10 | 4058345 max2205
max2205's picture

Alex, I'll take jerkoffs for $500 please.....

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:10 | 4058353 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Ohh, you've hit the daily debt double.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:51 | 4058516 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

Ohh, you've hit the daily debt double.

...and you know what that means! You can wager at least double the amount of the other players' money, with the option to leverage it up to twenty times that amount!

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 20:11 | 4058623 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Perfect summing up.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:46 | 4058499 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

what now?

A brief intermission, followed by the next act.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:51 | 4058518 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Thanks

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:59 | 4058546 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I hear the bartender by door 3 is pouring doubles of the good stuff for house single prices if you tip him right.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:08 | 4058339 Call me Ishmael
Call me Ishmael's picture

squidvision

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:09 | 4058340 Devotional
Devotional's picture

*kick* shirley

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:14 | 4058361 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

The treat of default is fake unless Obama decides to do it. The 14th ammendment states clearly that the debt MUST be serviced and everyone knows there are ten times the required cash flow coming in to cover it. If Obama forces the house to capitulate he will have effectively ended the constitutionally gauranteed seperation of powers, putting virtually all power of spending under the control of the POTUS. Simply Obama's threat to default is unconstitutional.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:24 | 4058402 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

At least the NSA isn't unconstitutionally making a record of our conversation about Obama's unconstitutional usurpation of power from Congress.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:38 | 4058466 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  At least the NSA isn't unconstitutionally making a record of our conversation about Obama's unconstitutional usurpation of power from Congress.

Yeah,  I wish the "patriots" would get as worked up about unfunding unconstitutional Big-Gov programs like the NSA.

Oh well, some unconstitutional Big-Gov programs are more unconsonstitutional than others, I suppose.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:58 | 4058547 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

Yeah,  I wish the "patriots" would get as worked up about unfunding unconstitutional Big-Gov programs like the NSA.

You'd think that, at the very least, the NSA would be self-funding just from insider trading.

Cue patriotic video of flag waving in the slow-motion wind with superimposed psychologically reassuring "A Global Force For Good®" reinforcement message.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:41 | 4058476 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Agreed. Its bad enough we are losing our few remaining rights, but virtually every part of the constitution, especially those areas designed specifically to restrain our federal government, are under simultaneous attack.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 21:07 | 4058824 logicalman
logicalman's picture

First off, I'm not American.

I thought the whole idea of the Constitution was to limit government

I also thought that the Constitution was the supreme law

How can this be attacked?

Oh, I forgot, bought and paid for judges.

Greedy, self-interested, corrupt and bought for 'lawmakers'

We don't need mor laws, in fact we need less, and we need to see them being applied equally.

 

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 21:19 | 4058867 The Persistent ...
The Persistent Vegetable's picture

Im amazed so many people agree with you that Obama has the power under the 14th to pay the debt, because i think thats exactly how this is going to end. He's just gonna announce that the bills will be paid because he has the power.

I guarentee you that 99% of those who upvoted you will be screaming bloody murder over the usurpation of power by that dictator Obama.

And sadly, congress through its own stupidity will cede one more power to the executive.

 

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 21:35 | 4058917 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

It is his job to pay those bills and he has the cash to do it, he just doesn't have the power to BORROW the money by raising the debt limit to pay them. This what so many have been saying, the only way we default is if he decides to pay other bills rather than the debt and the constitution's 14th ammendment says he has no discretion in that regard. He must pay the debt BEFORE he pays anything else. That has nothing to do with the debt ceiling extention. What he is doing is trying to use the threat of default to force republicans to capitulate. He is betting, regardless of the constitutionality of his actions, that the press will place the blame on the republicans.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 22:18 | 4059085 logicalman
logicalman's picture

His 'job' is to do what his owners tell him to do. Period

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:21 | 4058397 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Yes its all fake.

They are merely wrangling over what departments to keep operating without moar debt issuance. The WaPo had to do backflips in order to give Rand even two Pinocchio's...lol.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2013/10/11/rand-pauls-claim-that-there-is-no-reason-for-us-to-default/

The "obligations" the lefties (errr, statists of all stripes) are freaking out about are current spending levels, not debt servicing.

Its all a fucking lie.

Surprised? ;-)

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:38 | 4058473 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

No doubt some of this circus is about funding bloated government in general.  But I maintain that the primary driving force behind it all -- and the reason the Red Team will cave -- is the free shit for bankers Party.  By which I mean 90+% of both political parties who do what the bankers tell them.  The bankers want the dough.  The rest is noise.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 20:37 | 4058720 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Baseline budgeting assures the COST OF government never goes down, irrespective of tax reciepts, thus the need for unicorn farts out of nowhere, meaning moar debt that can never be repaid...ever...the expotential growth of it.

Seems insane but for now you and I are pulling this piece of shit Forward! by submitting to their taxation scheme.

I'm agreeing with you to a point, the Red Team is government as well, they will cave but a new day will dawn where everyone see's they've been told a lie. They really didn't need the taxes collected, they can just print us all into prosperity, can't they?

So, in this new paradigm, taxes are really something else.

Not a functional tool for governmental operations at all but something more sinister for the eiltes to play with. If the Morgue gets 500 billion dropped in their lap for the con to continue, what do they care if 50 billion is set aside for "rogue trader contingencies"? Likewise, if baby daddy zips & unzips as fast as he can, its no concern of his. As well as CEO's counterfieting stock options as wage payment, the unicorn never runs out of gas in this scenario.

Its just a control mechanism against me & you, stupidly thinking we are better than them ;-)

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 20:40 | 4058739 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Once it goes past Oct 17th, Obama won't be able to put the republicans over the barrel.  In fact the republicans will have more leverage than Obama. 

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 05:12 | 4059592 ableman28
ableman28's picture

Hi Shirley.

Where do you want to meet for the other part?

 

 

 

I couldn't resist.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:14 | 4058335 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

Pelosi's hair is the news! Seen from the right it's rather a rather simple do, but then, on the left side view, something Trump comes, and it's frosted.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:16 | 4058367 walküre
walküre's picture

Speaking of Trump.. he's been quiet all this time. Imagine he'd be President now. LOL

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:08 | 4058336 Devotional
Devotional's picture

2 more weeks of this shit?

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:12 | 4058355 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

yeah. it seems like they are going to turn the lights off for a few minutes and let the free shit army crash into each other and the walls in the dark for a few mins before begging for someone to turn the lights back on.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:17 | 4058384 walküre
walküre's picture

Planning to ride it out in a cabin up North might be a good idea...

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:07 | 4058342 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Stand firm, fuckers!

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:09 | 4058346 walküre
walküre's picture

Relax. Republicans are trying to write a free Ferrari for all GOP members into the bill and that seems to be a bone of contention. They may have to compromise on a free Range Rover. Life sucks.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:15 | 4058365 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

idiot

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:14 | 4058370 walküre
walküre's picture

no, I'm an asshole and won't settle for less

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:24 | 4058410 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Way to stand firm with oldwood.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:45 | 4058421 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I concur, my mistake.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:11 | 4058348 max2205
max2205's picture

I feel new highs by Friday...

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 22:23 | 4059108 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Good pot?

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:09 | 4058350 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Maybe their hoping for Ison and its accompanying debris field to spare them the difficult decisions

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:12 | 4058359 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

US has ample inflow of monies. This is just a dog & pony show for the masses.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:15 | 4058374 walküre
walküre's picture

who cares about "inflows" when the Fed can give endless enemas

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:23 | 4058406 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Exactly.

Seems like Tyler(s) would have pointed that out by now.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:48 | 4058510 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

Yeah, and plenty of outflows too. 

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 20:00 | 4058581 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Don't think so 1D or so linear.  It's a complex and dynamic system (with non-linear feedback loops), more aking to a nuclear reactor than a thermostat.

The core (melt-down) concern is the Market CONfidence.  If this goes non-linear (in a highly leveraged Derivatives market), the outcome is not easily predicted, and not "pretty".  The Dollar could get trashed in a hurry, interest rates would rise and cause a feedback loop, etc, etc.

Make sure you got plenty of stuff on hand to last some weeks or more:  Cash, PM, Water, Food, Gas, Friends, etc.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:14 | 4058360 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

The House has passsed numerous bills to try to find a way past this crisis. What they have found is that the only bill the Senate and the president will sign from the House is one where they give Obama full dictatorial authority.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:14 | 4058368 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Care to share the link? I have heard nothing of the sort.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 19:20 | 4058396 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Do some research and then post the link yourself.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 21:26 | 4058883 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Referring to your dictatorial authority statement, not the bills that are sitting on Harry Reids desk. Again, that link. There is a reason why I specifically need that information.

 

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 21:36 | 4058909 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Why would any link convince you if you have not had your eyes opened by now?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!