Mysterious Gold Seller Is Back With Periodic High Volume Slams, Fails To Break Market

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Unlike on the two prior occasions when the "mysterious" (coughBIScough) gold seller sold so much gold he briefly broke the gold market not once but twice, this morning's concerted gold selling episodes, which briefly took gold to a three month low, were unable to obliterate the entire bid stack (at least for now) and crush enough liquidity to force the CME to announce another "stop logic" 10-20 second trading halt.

However, there were some other peculiarities surrounding today's now recurring morning gold battering (which as we noted in a market where the CME no longer supervises any and all manipulation, were and are certain to continue). Specifically, what is curious is that starting at 3:48 am Eastern Time, Nanex found "six instances (there may be more) of 1 second periods in Gold futures with a high number of trades (700 or more)." As those who have been covering our coverage of HFT manipulation will note, these are precisely the kinds of momentum ignition, and not rational price discovery, events that seek to manipulate prevailing prices lower (or higher). The good news is that as everyone knows, aside from equity, electricity, FX, libor, aluminum, and credit derivative markets (in just the case of JPM) gold is never manipulated: Blythe Masters promised. So there's that.

These are the specific volume spiking intervals that Nanex has noted in the latest overnight trading session of note.

  • 03:48:04
  • 04:46:46
  • 05:30:42
  • 07:43:22
  • 08:43:26
  • 09:43:29

As Nanex further observes, "Note that the last 3 are almost exactly 1 hour and 3 seconds apart. That's not likely a coincidence."

And the actual bid-soaking trading slams in chart format:

 

03:48:04 ~ December 2013 Gold (GC) Futures Depth of Book

 

04:46:46

 

05:30:42

 

07:43:22

 

08:43:26

 

09:43:29

0
Your rating: None
 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 10/15/2013 - 10:56 | 4055884 achmachat
achmachat's picture

out. of. ammo.

now let's wait and see if enough buyers on these trades want to stand for delivery.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 10:58 | 4055911 Arius
Arius's picture

they are writing history for the next generation ... the real gold is long gone ... these responsible have long left the scene ...

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:03 | 4055925 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

....if enough buyers on these trades want to stand for delivery.

 

You don't get any real gold......but we'll cut you a check.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:12 | 4055964 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

........or you can wait 7 years for delievery....

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:23 | 4056052 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

You had me at "coughBIScough"

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:25 | 4056064 dryam
dryam's picture

That's weird.  As the governement is causing it's currency to lose it's meaning, gold is being manipulated. 

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:28 | 4056079 blabam
blabam's picture

Friday is option expiration day? Should I wait?

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:35 | 4056105 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

COMPLETE FUCKING SCAM...

GOLD Manip On Steroids...

Thanks TYLER For Exposing This FRAUD That No Regulator Seems To Even Flinch About...

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 12:09 | 4056274 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

CME isn't watching right now. Funny seeing this blatant manipulation live though.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 12:29 | 4056391 Bullionaire
Bullionaire's picture

Calling Bart Chilton...uh, I mean Simpson.

 

"Ay caramba!"

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:32 | 4056112 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

America:

President = Joke

Markets = Joke

Polititians = Joke

Regulators = Joke

This can only end one way!

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:37 | 4056130 AnonymousCitizen
AnonymousCitizen's picture

A really funny punch line?

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 12:01 | 4056216 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

I believe gold isn't the solf underbelly of the bankers - gold is 2nd derivative of the true underbelly which is now the T-bill market...an exodus here is the ignition switch which would start the hyper-monetization and send derivatives and PM's on their way.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 12:02 | 4056246 StacksOnStacks
StacksOnStacks's picture

This is such a Dumpster Fire!

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 12:26 | 4056380 sleigher
sleigher's picture

You do know that at the center of the universe is a big rubber chicken right?

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 12:06 | 4056259 johnnymustardseed
johnnymustardseed's picture

What if a government that had trillions of dollars of worhtless US currency decided to manipulate the market so they could buy up cheaper gold????   HELLO CHINA

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 13:13 | 4056580 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

"What if a government that had trillions of dollars of worhtless US currency decided to manipulate the market so they could buy up cheaper gold???? HELLO CHINA"

Good point. I dealt a lot with double-crossing Chinese
and they might act stupid like everybody else but they do hedge their bets. You can be their best customer but they will still try to screw you by offering your competitor a better deal just for the sake of hedging their bets.

What if they buy most of their gold directly at the source now ? They surely would be in on having paper prices manipulated downwards. Like any other serious strategic gold buyer for that matter.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:30 | 4056087 Croesus
Croesus's picture

Dear Central Banksters: 

You may want to take note of a few things; 

1. Scare tactics aren't working on China, India, Canada, Australia, or ANY OTHER Goldbugs...even "tardy-to-the-party" Americans aren't scared by the daily price action. 

2. You're only digging yourselves farther into the hole...

3. None of your tactics are having the desired effects. 

4. You hit the price, and I sell paper stocks to buy MOAR GOLD. I'm not alone. 

5. The "yellow metal" has more REAL value than the "white paper"; It's common knowledge. 

6. The more you play your games, the more we buy, just because we know it bothers you. 

 

YOU, are NOT going to ERADICATE human instinct, through lies and manipulation. It won't happen. Please, keep trying, if it makes you feel better. 

It only convinces us, that we're right, following the path we're on. 

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 12:00 | 4056224 xtop23
xtop23's picture

I really need to buy you that scotch C. +1

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 13:29 | 4056628 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Yup, yup, yup. 

Dear CBs within Club Fed: 

The more you smack down paper-gold, the more gold also gets converted from "Unallocated Pool Accounts" to Bullion and Coins -- with deliveries sent to us or to our many secure (non-US) storage locations.

FYI, "Unallocated Pool Accounts" are price-insensitive, as their owners pay only the incremental cost of converting to Bullion/Coin.  And the smart ones do this before there is a panic, or before you decided to confiscate said Pools of Gold.

Beep, beep, beep.  Love,

Gold Bugs

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:02 | 4055918 Dear Infinity
Dear Infinity's picture

Premiums on gold eagles remain a stalwart 4% (see: www.CompareGoldPrices.com) , would probably not be a bad time to load up the truck.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:01 | 4055919 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

When you have access to a printing press for unlimited funds you never run out of ammo. I'm sure that if somebody wanted to take delivery they would either get a stern talking to (hey take it from us,you don't want to do that for your own good), or their delivery would be over a period of years.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:06 | 4055941 Marco
Marco's picture

Or they simply take delivery and the market doesn't implode ...

How can we have stories about the gold flows every day to China and at the same time pretend no one is taking delivery?

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 12:01 | 4056225 monkeyshine
monkeyshine's picture

If China really wanted to buy as much gold as possible for as long as possible wouldn't they use a method of periodically slamming the price and exploring for stop losses? Be on the bid while also hitting the bid. I mean they couldn't corner the market in a year or five but over decades...

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 03:53 | 4059539 lewy14
lewy14's picture

Um... guys...

Awkward observation: some of these manipulation events are in the up direction. Look carefully at the charts.

It is definitely manipulation of some kind, because responsible "real money" flow trading does not cut through the bid (or offer) stack like a light saber as a matter of practice. Everybody knows this.

But are there more than one actor here?

Whoever "they" are, they have 2 characteristics:

1) approximately limitless leverage and demonstrated insensitivity to near term loss risk. (So institutional, and strategic.)

2) untouchable. (If a regime enemy, e.g. the Koch brothers, traded like this, it would leak like a sieve and they'd be frogmarched. Just sayin'.)

Is there more than one entity that fits this description? And do they have different ends? Or is it vol itself that is being manipulated, not a specific price trend?

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:24 | 4056053 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

That is the sad part. maybe not never, but we need a grand mal seizure crash. When it comes to silver the market is so small, that any intrepid billionaire could theoretically gobble up enough physical to make things go bonkers. Nevermind a sovereign country. China for example could probably destroy the market 6 months if they wanted to. You want delivery? How about a premium of freshly printed money or a suicide?

 

Long term I know why I hold metals, Short term, the thought of bankers and politicians wearing a blindfold and smoking a cigarette along with a full belly of rage keeps me going.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:35 | 4056117 4 wheel drift
4 wheel drift's picture

When you have access to a printing press for unlimited funds you never run out of ammo.

and that has been the problem for a long time now.....

that is why.....

we need to BREAK this monster.....   it is THE ONLY WAY to return to sanity.... 

regardless of the short term cost, because the long term cost is worse.

but i am not hopeful this will happen....

all the sons (and daughters) of whores in dc will make sure the kleptomacy continues

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:58 | 4056213 No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture

Only terrorists insist on deivery.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:07 | 4055955 seek
seek's picture

I'm not convinced they are out of ammo. Even with the price this low relative to the past 18 months, they're still trying to pushing it lower.

My suspicion is the algo is working with a limit on how hard it can hit. It's not working, so someone with a higher pay grade is going to have to authorize it to hit harder, April style. Right now they're using the cheapest methods they can (slamdowns at lower volumes in a thin market overnight), so the next move would be higher volumes hits overnight, and the last resort hitting at max volume with the same timing as April.

It's amazing to me how hard they're working on slamming gold (and the lack of regulatory enforcement, of course.) This is why I think a bigger slam is coming -- for whatever reason this is really, really important to someone with deep pockets.

I agree, though, if buyers stand for delivery the slam-downs will ultimately turn into what changes the game into a winning one for physical longs. We might have a wait or a scary roller coaster ride before this happens.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:20 | 4056021 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Could it be the PBOC ?

Use some of those worthless dollar holdings to pick up the real money at bargain prices..

I would in their place.

 

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:32 | 4056097 oak
oak's picture

agree, it is china to play the gold price on the us default drama to ride of us$.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:24 | 4056054 Central Wanker
Central Wanker's picture

This really is the weirdest show on earth. Both the buyers (the Chinese) and the sellers (BIS, Fed, BoE...) want to have as low price as possible. Some basic logic says that this can't last forever. 

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 12:01 | 4056232 seek
seek's picture

It's weird because both players think they're playing the same game, when in reality they're using two different sets of rules.

The Western central banks are playing a short-term game, with rules set by Volcker, to not let gold make fiat "look bad." They're thinking this is a normal 5-year business cycle, basically a short term intervention done for PR purposes. Gold is an archaic relic to them, MMT is the new gold, and due to MMT "this time it's different." The Fed also has an incentive for low gold if in fact they sold Germany's holdings.

PBOC (and I'd argue Russia) are playing a long-term game, positioning for the next reserve currency, so they want to maximize their accumulation at the lowest possible cost.

The wildcard is Western central bank commitment. If they were truly committed, they'd flush gold into the system when supply gets tight, and Germany wouldn't give a crap about repatriation. This isn't the case. My suspicion we'll see slamdowns and downward price pressure for quite some time, and then when the supply is completely exhausted, the next major currency sniffle triggers a moonshot. All this could take years or just weeks.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 13:31 | 4056640 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

If I were Germany I would sell my thousands of tonnes of
gold I will never get back because it ain`t there
and buy back the real thing on what remains of an open market and physical supply with the paper proceeds.

Another potential huge player to send paper prices down.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:56 | 4056194 The_Small_Lebowski
The_Small_Lebowski's picture

http://i.imgur.com/PtSbfFB.png

i posted this indicator on here several months ago (chaikin money flow 5 period). it seems to give clear indication as to when the various slams will happen. it went off like a  rocket just before the april smash, and still seems to give good indication as to whats ahead.

drops in volume always seem to precipitate the largest downward moves

Seek:

look at the volumes since the late June bottom. i wonder whats going to hapen to the vol when the price gets back down around the $1200 mark?

personally i anticipate it will go through the roof, and we can expect another royal smashdown to the $1000 mark. this could be before the end of the month.

the only conclusion i can make from this (volume based) indicatior, is that they have to turn off the algos temporarily to see what 'real' actors are present, and what the price action is like without the HFT presence.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 12:12 | 4056297 seek
seek's picture

That's a very interesting chart.

I think your read is the same as mine, they keep at the slamming -- but at some point that will trigger the physical market separation once supplies are exhausted. I'm sure they'd like to slam it to $1000 if they could, but I am not sure if that's achivable.

The CME data has been interesting since it's shown a major slowing in gold leaving warehouses. I don't buy it -- there must be some cash settlement happening or buyers are going outside CME to get it now. When I put my foil hat on, I start wondering if they're not pulling physical out of CME so they can keep manipulating paper prices lower while sucking the physical supply up elsewhere.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 12:52 | 4056500 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

Seek; interesting.  I wonder if endgame will include a ban on gold sales in the U.S.; I personally think so.

I think there will be a carry trade into Asia.

Gold is the thermostat of inflation and they are trying to keep the dial down.

Maybe eventually they just manufacture their own dial; at which point countries that value gold will pick up their ball and go elsewhere.

I am now in the camp pounding the table - you can only count on physical.  They can manipulate the rest perhaps even to grotesque levels, bankrupt and nationalize western mines, a host of things.

Dying cultures, such as the U.S. and great Britain, can do a lot of damage in their death throes.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 21:05 | 4058819 seek
seek's picture

It's possible in the very short endgame (meaning months to the big reset) gold sales gets banned. Bans attract attention and drive demand and are a last-ditch effort that has never really worked.

I think it'll actually be a low priority when they lose control, and my guess in any confiscated gold will wind up in the hands on low-level government types before it ever reaches the national treasury.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:14 | 4055981 xtop23
xtop23's picture

Nope. No manipulation here.

Dear Santa,

All i want for xmas is for Gensler to be struck by a runaway suppository truck.

Thanks. Enjoy the cookies.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 12:20 | 4056360 4 wheel drift
4 wheel drift's picture

lol.....

 

xtra wish....   may the supositories enter their destiny as the strike takes place....

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:14 | 4055984 Nothing but the...
Nothing but the truth.'s picture

Delivery maybe ain't even be an issue. If the Fed are behind all these paper shorting op's, then their counter parties and partners in crime ( JPM/GS ) may well be in cahoots with them and indefinitely defer delivery. Is this a possibility ? 

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:32 | 4056095 bozzy
bozzy's picture

Right - as long as they are willing to fund the trade or perhaps do not need to they can roll forward and close at their leisure, at least in theory.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 12:21 | 4056358 seek
seek's picture

Absolutely, as long as the goal is purely price manipulation. I commented above that would could be seeing collusion to basically protect trades on the CME to keep the manipulation going.

The side effect is still that physical gets sucked out of the system, just from sources other than CME warehouses. This coupld explain the rumors of GLD refusing redemptions last month with no major price moves seen on the CME.

I'd just go with the default assumption that all markets are heavily manipulated at this point, and nothing can be trusted.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 09:11 | 4059932 N2OJoe
N2OJoe's picture

Downvoted because when you print your own ammo, you can never run out until your target stops "accepting" it.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 10:55 | 4055885 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

These "dying breaths" will continue so long as the paper promises are still accepted.  < meh >

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 10:56 | 4055890 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Eventually they will start doing it in the other direction and actually make some money.  There is a lot of easy win between here and 1600 once they decide 90 days of fighting a losing battle is enough.

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:00 | 4055908 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Why worry about the toil of making money when you can just write yourself a blank check for a few trillion?

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 11:07 | 4055954 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Because trading that trillion into 50 trillion is better.  If you don't believe me, just ask Judas Priest:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WtuoFv4dcwM

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 10:56 | 4055895 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Amazingly brazen ...

Tue, 10/15/2013 - 10:56 | 4055901 FunkyOldGeezer
FunkyOldGeezer's picture

Gold and Silver are not buyers' markets to be in at the mo'... if you're a stacker / bug.

They're taking it down to $1100 at least. The 'Squid' said so.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!