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How The Fed Views Obamacare

Tyler Durden's picture




 

By now the general public has long made up its mind about Obamacare, aka the ACA, either positive or negative, and as such any anecdotes about its impact on the broader economy are usually covered by layers of political and ideological bias. One place, however, where the views on the ACA should be impartial is the Federal Reserve. Which is why we were surprised to note that in the just released Beige Book, whose market-moving impact is now absolutely irrelevant as the importance of fundamentals in a time of central planning is "modest to moderate" at best, there were no less than eight instances of "Affordable Care Act."  So in order to further the discussion and debate of Obamacare's impact on the economy from a purportedly apolitical entity, here is what the latest Beige Book had to say about Obama's crowning achievement.

Select Beige Book excerpts:

  • Employment growth remained modest in September. Several Districts reported that contacts were cautious to expand payrolls, citing uncertainty surrounding the implementation of the Affordable Care Act and fiscal policy more generally.
     
  • In regard to hiring and capital expenditure plans, firms continued to expand cautiously, as they face ongoing uncertainty from the federal government shutdown and implementation of the Affordable Care Act.
     
  • Most bankers remained optimistic, although they expressed uncertainty on behalf of their business customers and for themselves over the implications of both the Affordable Care Act and a prolonged government shutdown.
     
  • Most of our contacts are cautiously optimistic and expect little change in demand, although many were uneasy about fiscal issues and implications of the Affordable Care Act on their businesses.
     
  • There is anxiety about rising health insurance premiums, which was attributed to the Affordable Care Act.
     
  • Many of our contacts are concerned about the implementation of the Affordable Care Act and the effect it will have on their total labor cost.
     
  • Many contacts also commented on reluctance to expand due to uncertainty surrounding the Affordable Care Act; some employers cut hours or employees.
     
  • A number of contacts voiced concern about the uncertainty surrounding future employer and employee healthcare costs. In addition, several reported changing their health insurance enrollment periods this year in order to match the deadlines of the Affordable Care Act.
     
  • Staffing services firms noted flat demand overall since the last report but saw an unexpected decline in direct hires. One contact saw a few signed contracts designed to circumvent the Affordable Care Act (ACA) by utilizing a temporary employee full time, then hiring that person on a permanent but part-time basis when the ACA goes into effect.

The following "explanatory" schematic may explain why even the Fed sees "uncertainty" abound:

Source: Fed

 

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Wed, 10/16/2013 - 14:54 | 4061707 Encroaching Darkness
Encroaching Darkness's picture

Sounds like the Fed needs some more "contacts" - preferably those found in the real world.

Anyone with any optimism over the implementation of ObamaCare needs to visit the homeless shelter, underpasses and soup kitchens, and ask how many there are there because of ObamaCare. The answers would inform the Fed's proceedings considerably.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:13 | 4061791 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Obummer Don't Care and student loans are teaching the young that government is the enemy and a slave master.

Truth has consequences.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 16:13 | 4062044 Manthong
Manthong's picture

If you look closely, you will note that the patient and the doctor are buried UNDER all of that bureaucratic insanity - at opposite ends and not the center or focus of the system.

Where’s Wally question… find the death panel.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 16:18 | 4062114 Encroaching Darkness
Encroaching Darkness's picture

Oh, that's easy, far left side "IPAB" and "IPAB consumer advisory council".

Or ... nowhere PHYSICAL, just a mailbox / empty office to receive mail, while the villains hide in the shadows, and are never held accountable for their actions.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 16:53 | 4062287 Steve in Greensboro
Steve in Greensboro's picture

As Iowahawk said, its not Affordable and there is no Care involved, but at least it is an Act.  One out of three ain't bad.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 19:04 | 4062813 SDShack
SDShack's picture

What is so infuriating is how dumbcrats decry ANYTHING that comes between a "woman and her doctor" when it comes to "women's rights, and abortion", but put the biggest govt bureacracy ever implmented in place between ALL CITIZENS, INCLUDING WOMEN, and their doctor, and the govt response is "EAT YOUR PEAS!" And the reply is... women love it most of all! This is so insane it doesn't even qualify for Einstein's Definition of Insanity.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:20 | 4061808 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

  • As a healthcare insurance company, the ACA guarantees us a profit and eliminates competition, just like the Federal Reserve Act did for banks 100 years ago.  We are looking forward to the future, but with record share appreciation since the ACA passed, things are pretty good right now, too.
Wed, 10/16/2013 - 16:06 | 4062057 Manthong
Manthong's picture

The purpose of all of this nonsense is to get the sheep screaming for single payer.

Insurance companies will get the shaft soon enough.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 16:43 | 4062248 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

If you really believe that, then I have a bridge in the USSR I would like to sell you.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 18:42 | 4062702 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

I was wondering whether it wasn't the insurance companies who talked the GOP into doing this little worthless farce because they do see single payer as the result

Thu, 10/17/2013 - 01:38 | 4062867 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Oh single payer is coming all right, but it will actually be single provider (govt. insurance) run by a VERY select few PRIVATE enterprises awarded the business via NON-BID CONTRACTS to administer the Fed Govt. Mandated Single Payer Healthcare System. It's going to be the greatest redistribution of wealth since the Federal Reserve Act and will move us to the endgame of total oligarch control. The banks via the Federal Reserve have effectively used the finance and real property system to make debt slaves of all middle class citizens. The SNAP/School Lunch/Welfare system has made nourishment slaves of vast swaths of poor citizens whose number is growing everyday. 0zer0care fills in the gaps that the first 2 schemes have missed since EVERYONE has to have govt. mandated insurance. When completed, no one will ever be able to escape the govt tenticals. The only resistance possible will be armed resistance, and the attack by the govt on the 2nd amendment and the rise of the police state is quickly neutralizing that threat, and then it will Fait Accompli. 

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:03 | 4061708 thunderchief
thunderchief's picture

No policy works unless you kill the lawyers and insurance companies.
Let doctors work with patients, and tell anyone they wish to fuck off. If some land whale on food stamps and crack comes into their clinic, any doctor should be able to write a subcription to go home and die on the couch.
Good medicine will not go anywhere with so may dead beats, red tape and lawyers. Get your malpractice insurance when you enter the hospital, just like car insurance!

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:54 | 4061991 Lei_in_AZ
Lei_in_AZ's picture

word!  I have been saying this for years - lawyers, lawsuits driving up the cost of malpractice insurance is the root problem.  IMHO anyway.  until they fix THAT, nothing will change.  from a financial standpoint, thats where all the damn $$$ is going. 

I can't even imagine why anyone would put themselves $500,000 in debt to be a doctor and then be unable make that money back eventually because the cost of doing business is cost prohibitive. 

everyone lies to their doctors - oh no, I don't drink a 12 pack every night, of course I'm a non-smoker, etc. and then when something goes wrong (because you lied) its all the doctors fault!  simplistic example, but you get my point.  if doctors are forced to treat anyone and everyone is the govt going to start paying med student tuition?  because I would never sign up for a program designed to make me fail/broke....

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 14:55 | 4061709 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Is there concern?

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:11 | 4061780 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

The only concern I have is that I seem to be running out of popcorn.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 14:55 | 4061711 khakuda
khakuda's picture

As usual, the Fed is great at reporting the obvious, well after the fact, but incredibly inept at looking forward to the implications of monetary and fiscal policies.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 14:56 | 4061715 The Continental
The Continental's picture

No one I know in the private sector, small business owners, has had anything to say but bad things about Obamacare. They don't like it and they are not hiring, period. Some have laid off workers or converted full time to part time. None have any interest in capital investment and expansion; most are looking to downsize into early retirement.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:06 | 4061754 duo
duo's picture

If millions of households sign up, expect consumer spending to drop by $400/month/household to offset the jacking due to ACA.  Knock 3% off of GDP instantly.  The "Obamacare recession of 2014" will be one for the record and history books.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 18:12 | 4062587 island
island's picture

Not sure of the dollar amount - but you are definitely on target with the impact.  In addition, worse health care is heading our way.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:13 | 4061790 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

We are taking a look at splitting our company into various pieces and limit the number of employees in each "company", that way each company, and its employees, could be exempt from the piece of SHIT ACA. 

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:30 | 4061848 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

All of our part-time workers have been converted to agency workers.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 20:31 | 4063118 James
James's picture

Dr. Richard, I encourage you to look further @ the ACA language regarding spin-offs to work-around conforming to ACA.

It won't work as you describe. They knew that would happen and they specifically wrote that the Parent will be charged for the total of subsidiaries employees.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:18 | 4061812 Down Vote
Down Vote's picture

Exactly. It has nothing to do with health care.  It's just a shiny new corral at the slaughterhouse.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 14:57 | 4061718 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

Ah yes, the great and powerful fed speaks.    

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 14:57 | 4061719 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

If it rapes and pillages the people financially, we're all for it.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:00 | 4061735 olto
olto's picture

rapes, and pillages, and plunders

as i recall

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 14:58 | 4061723 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

What's the ACA?

Are they referring to Barry The Emperor Health Care?

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 14:58 | 4061724 The Proletariat
The Proletariat's picture

Sounds like more modest, moderate, and cautious printing.  BTFD!

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 17:25 | 4062398 Haager
Haager's picture

You would've  earned green if you've ended it with 'Buy gold!'

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 14:59 | 4061727 Lordflin
Lordflin's picture

Obamacare is a distraction of marginal importance in the scheme of things. The real storm is coming. Get ready for the mother of all resets....

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:01 | 4061741 hankwil74
hankwil74's picture

These poor, poor business owners and CEO's.  How can they afford to pay for their employees health care AND put a solid gold toilet on their private jet?

 

http://www.forbes.com/pictures/ehii45khf/bob-nardelli-at-home-depot-223-million/

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:04 | 4061748 JailBank
JailBank's picture

Well they don't have to worry about it if they have more than 50 employees because Obama gave them a 1 year break.... so far. We'll see what they get next year.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 18:48 | 4062743 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

I don't have a jet

I don't have a gold toilet

The guys who do don't have a problem with the ACA.

Us folks trying to scratch out a living with ZIRP are the ones getting hurt

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:04 | 4061747 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

The Fed always gets everything right.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:07 | 4061755 csmith
csmith's picture

Technically, not the Fed's views, but those of the people SURVEYED by the Fed.

And of course they hate the ACA. Nobody likes to be told how to run their business.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:07 | 4061757 toddf
toddf's picture

The Fed should just PRINT some new contacts - that's been their fucking answer to every fucking thing else.  Fuck you Bernanke.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:09 | 4061760 The Econ Ideal
The Econ Ideal's picture

Everyone adversely affected by the ACA/Obamacare: Write your state governors and legislature members and ask that they take action against the adverse provisions through any means available, including state legislative nullification. The Affordable Care Act is anything but affordable, and affects everyone, including those currently getting insurance through their employer (you know this if you are the employer!). Small business owners who buy individual insurance are seeing their premiums double and triple. Action folks...action. 

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 18:18 | 4062610 island
island's picture

My communications have fallen on deaf ears.  Congress doesn't give a shit about the middle class  They operate for the benefit of the bankers, financial elite, Wall St. Casino, and, of course, themselves.  They attempt to placate the masses by enlarging and enhancing the welfare state.   All brought to you through the pillaging of the middle-class.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:08 | 4061767 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

ACA is more short term wealth distribution, with baked-in inefficiencies.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:11 | 4061778 The Econ Ideal
The Econ Ideal's picture

More like long-term wealth redistribution (until you're dead). 

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:11 | 4061779 JR
JR's picture

Want to know who won the economic battle over the Obamacare controversy? Watch Chuck Schumer’s smile. That will tell you that the owners of the Federal Reserve won today over the American people, because it’s Schumer, more so than any member of Congress, who lives and breathes the instructions of the Fed.

When the smoke clears and Obamacare survives, the Beige Book today, this October 16th, provides a look at what the Fed knew all along.

Want to know why the Democrats are so rabid for their spending programs? Want to know why the Republicans shout and scream and then cave? It’s because most of them are card carrying, full membership foot soldiers for the Federal Reserve.

On this day of surrender, the market goes up and the resources and estate value for the people goes down.

Follow the money. Oh, wait. You can’t. It’s all printed and delivered in secret.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:13 | 4061787 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Who is John Galt?

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:30 | 4061842 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

A fictional character in a book that offers entertaining characterizations, but no real or practical solutions.

Ray screens?  Unlimited clean power from static electricity? 

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 22:02 | 4063514 acetinker
acetinker's picture

You realize, of course, that the book was released in 1957?  John Galt is as real as we want him to be.  As an aside, what happened to the original hedgeless_horseman?  What have you done to him?  We'll eventually find out, you know.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:20 | 4061817 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

There is only one way out of a goddamned abortion like that flowchart; off the wire to the extent possible.

 

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:29 | 4061845 Desp
Desp's picture

This is how I view Obamacare, tried everyday for 16 days...

 

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Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:35 | 4061875 OpTwoMistic
OpTwoMistic's picture

Fail

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:36 | 4061880 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

We have healthcare, but can't eat, buy gas, pay the mortgage, buy i-phones, pay power and light, pay property taxes or buy toilet paper...but other than that, we're okay.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 15:50 | 4061963 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Rube Goldberg Health Care. What could go wrong?

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 16:06 | 4062060 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

My fucking eyes are burning!!!!

 

Damn, now I have to go puke again!!!

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 17:19 | 4062381 Parrotile
Parrotile's picture

Apart from a very complicated (and very interconnected) flowchart, I note the expansion in "New Government" and "Expanded Government" positions.

Seems a lot of (presumably) adequately paid positions for the "New Bureaucracy", which will be funded by . . . . . .? ? ? ?

So much for a "Slimline" and "Downsized" central administration . . . .

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 18:35 | 4062667 Element
Element's picture

Hope they used Japanese capacitors on that.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 18:40 | 4062689 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Does anyone have a diagram of how the world views the Fed?

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 21:34 | 4063253 acetinker
acetinker's picture

Wait up ya'll.  I'm havin a brain fart here.  We already kinda sorta know that our "leaders" are merely shepherds, right?  We also kinda sorta know that somebody we can't quite identify (but not the shepherds) actually owns the plantation, right? *it's the fuckin' banks*.  Did I say that out loud?

So, in between wars, but particularly after WWII, the US had the most badass wool producing motha-fuckas on the face of the earth, and the owners couldn't help but notice this.  The owners had created a class of independent, fuck you and everybody else that looks like you, nation. Today, that remnant is known as "middle class".

This development was horrifying for them.  And so it came to pass- JFK was eliminated, and in his place we got ("I'll have those niggers votin' democrat for the next hundred years"), Johnson.  Lyndon, I dunno if it'll last 100 years, but it's lasted long enough to destroy a once great republic- and fuck you very much.

So anyway, the once defiant, fuck you and everybody that looks like you republic was transformed, into a dependent mass of dung.  The owners simply don't care about this plantation anymore- there's far more fertile ground- east.  It's been quite a few generations since they were the livestock.  They will become the "new" middle class, and Americans who almost unequivocally believe they are exceptional, will continually clamor for more of what they had, only to find their chains a bit heavier, each day.

Serendipity, it is called.

Wed, 10/16/2013 - 23:58 | 4063889 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

AFA is another hole in americas bucket. We can not pump water fast enough to fill it. And we have to pump water (money) from another county to try.

My company is trying to market more overseas where some economies are still functioning. My trips to Poland and Russia have shown economies that are growing. My business travels around the US and the stories I hear show a loss of US vitality that appears to keep trending down. My personal opinion is that over the last 30 years the quality of american thinkers, workers, citizens, and leaders have all declined, and this demographic dygenics is accelerating down. Sorry for the pessamism, as an american I like to be optimistic, but criminal Obama is just a symptom.

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