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Kiss Tapering Goodbye
Just out from Fed "hawk" Dick Fisher:
- FISHER: FISCAL SHENANIGANS HAVE `SWAMPED' QE TAPER PROSPECTS
- FISHER: HARD TO NOW ARGUE TO CHANGE COURSE OF MONETARY POLICY
- FISHER HAS FAVORED TAPERING FED MONTHLY BOND PURCHASES
- U.S. FED'S FISHER REPEATS BEST TO 'STAY THE COURSE' ON BOND BUYING AT OCTOBER FOMC MEETING
And therein lies the most circular argument of the New Normal.
On one hand "fiscal shenanigans" exist, as does unprecedented Congressional dysfunction, simply because the Fed's endless intervention in the bond market has now made Fiscal policy both meaningless and ultra permissive. After all, why not fund everything with debt if said debt will be promptly monetized by the Fed, in the process keeping bond yields so low that there is no opportunity cost to reckless spending and making a completey mockery of fiscal prudency. Of course, there will be a price to pay "at the end of the tunnel", but for now the music is playing and one must if not dance, then issue as much debt as Bernanke, and soon Yellen, will monetize.
On the other hand, it is the same Fed-enabled, broken Congress that now virtually assures a government shutdown every quarter, when the can is repeatedly kicked "3 months down the line", and which will mean the Fed will be 'confused' as there is no government data for weeks on end, making any Tapering discussion impossible. And to the Fed's benefit and great comfort, it can just blame the same Congress and its "fiscal shenanigans" for its inability to extricate itself from the centrally-planned mess it has made.
Finally, it was notable that Blackrock's Larry Fink yesterday said he now doesn't see a Taper until June. At the rate we are going, one can simply kiss the Taper goodbye, which however means that going forward instead of monetizing 0.2% of all 10Year equivalent duration, the Fed's weekly purchases will extract between 0.3% and 0.5% from the private sector until such time as bond market liquidity is non-existent.
Expect to hear much more on this topic in the next TBAC presentation due out in a few weeks.
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The plan has always been to periodically double QE.
Au revoire Taper, we knew thee not at all. You see, we must continue consuming everything we see, and when that runs out, we must fabricate that which to consume, so you see, a meeting really was not meant to be.
The increase of the debt ceiling is a BAIL OUT! Just like Greece! Don't let the media make it seem like the Federal Reserve is separate. Its the central bank thats going to buy all the treasuries! Just like Greece!
I am quietly waiting for the announcemet of QE $120 billion a month. Also when will they run out of mortgages to buy?
It already is close to that. The payments on maturing debt as well as received interest are re-invested in bond purchases.
That tapering idea was "interesting", but now it's time for a surge instead!
Buy Fucking Dip!
http://www.ispot.tv/ad/7bWX/geico-motorcycle-money-man-tavern-song-by-th...
Heck they don't need moar...they just rehypo whatever multiple they want and get the gov to guarantee and shaky deals.
Just ask JON CORZINE
Tapering NEVER going to happen. Any talk of it is/was a red herring. A debt based system can only continue with Moar debt. Silver Bitchez!
does that makes gold a good investment?
for the muppets that is ... or are they still waiting to hear it from GOLDman himself ...
Circular logic for a circle Jerk.
I guess Schiff was correct again
yes, he has a bad habit of getting right eventually doesn't he
Kiss my ass Fischer....
Why not yours? He seems to kiss everyone elses. Was Fisher considered a 'hawk'? The longer I watch this charade the more I recognize that these meat puppets just spew disinformation all the time in order to obfuscate their masters' real instructions.
Perception keeps the dollar afloat. The NSA will be second to know when the winds change.
Yep, the lamestream media is only focused on internal US politics because it's the News Media Reality Show... 2 opposing spoiled factions fighting over who has the best clothes and toys, and who has whose boyfriend or girlfriend. That's all US politics is now. But the winds of change blowing all over the world are blowing against the USA, not favoring it. As the dollar continues to slowly grind lower, commodities will continue to spike higher, especially food and fuel. Those mainstains are the sparks that trigger revolutions around the world, just like they did in the Arab Spring, Egypt, as well as the recessions in Central and South America, and North Africa. This will continue to grow. Throw in Russia flexing muscles in the Baltic and Mediteranean, and a growing Iran/Israel confrontation, and the dry tinder laying all over the world is ripe for any spark. What is coming will be very unexpected to the sheeple and the lamestream Reality Media, but will be monitored (facilitated) by the NSA and CIA. It's only a matter of time before the best laid plans of TPTB run headlong into angry masses again. Next time it will be Benghazi to the 10th power. The resulting world power vacuum will be quickly filled by those completely opposed to US Dollar Reserve Status. You are already starting to see the chess pieces being moved on the board. "Check" is coming soon, to be followed by several more "checks" as the US weakly tries to escape. Checkmate is inevitable.
Well and good then - plenty of cash to buy those formerly Chinese held securities.
The the Fed will be able to buy them at a deep deep discount!
In which case the US can kiss responsible , prudent financial management goodbye too. Mind you it's already been doing that for the last 10 years.
RIP self governance.....We're all centrally planned now.
It's a good thing you added that second sentence... I would have wasted my day searching for your missing /sarc tag.
The free money/entitlement central bank economic programs ends when China ties the yuan to gold and becomes the worlds reserve currency. The US will crumble and the wrath of the last 30=40 years of insane debt finance expansion will be upon us. No one know when but it will happen.
Why would it need to do that to become the world's reserve currency? Why would you limit your options and ability to punitively exploit your status as reserve currency, in any way? Aside from the fact that the gold standard will only last so long as the central banks don't create a fractional reserve gold system or otherwise lease it, thereby obfuscating real holdings and financial condition... which I'm guessing will happen pretty quickly.
As far as currency is concerned, I'm not sure historical examples are going to be the perfect guide for where we are or where we're going... we're in a really strange place at the moment and have an even stranger future.
Thanks for that +1
I get tired of harping on the perils of a Gold standard. A basket of currencies.... a bi-metal standard maybe ......would be preferable. Another monopoly currency is not what we need ( although I do agree we need to be tied to something real ).
As far as tapering goes, whatever. Weimar Rep here we come.
Everyone that talks about China selling US treasuries misses one very big point... the fact that China HOLDS so many US treasuries is WHY they have access to the FED discount window. China has learned how to play the game. They are taking the long view of both controlling the USA, AND eventually getting access to our resources, especially natural resources. They have learned from Hong Kong, N.Korea, and N.Africa how to manipulate the West to get what they want. The next domino will be Taiwan, and then the big play will be right here in the USA. We all know the banks are using Fed policy to position themselves to control US assets. China is just part of the big bank cartel now. No reason to sell US treasuries because that is their leverage. The better long term strategy is use this leverage to get favorable trade and asset purchase benefits. You are going to see China buy US assets like the Japanese did in the 80's & 90's. The difference is China will purchase needed assets, not assets for show (they already have enough ghost cities in China). And unlike the Japanese, they will use the US banking cartel instead of world trade dollars to get printed US dollars gladly given to them by the Fed at 0% interest. When China has secured that access, you will see them push for a world reserve currency based on a basket of currencies... and the NWO will start with the USA being just another member, and not the dominant player.
Who cares. We all know how this ends. Stay the course. I'm sick of the bombardment of messages crying wolf.
It´s no more taper, now it´s TRAPPED.
170 billion a month? No problem.
One could probably argue this was the intent all along.
We are toast, the rest of the world and a few people here, paid attention to what was behind the curtain.
The junkie has decided it want's to die a junkie's death. I'm shocked I tell you, shocked.
Any excuse will do...
Indeed. As much I want to see the man's head put on a pike he called it here.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-16/jamie-dimon-us-debt-endgame
Yes, it's ironic to defer to Jamie Dimon, who lately has far more pressing concerns in justifying the non-criminal nature of his enterprise, on anything - especially which does not involve market manipulation - but for once, Jamie actually had it right when it comes to framing the parody of governance in the US and the real debt problem.
From Bloomberg:
Q. How worried are you that one morning the bond market has moved against the United States?
A. It’s virtually assured, the question is when and how. I don't know if it will be two years of five years but it will happen. It is a matter of time, the United States can’t borrow indefinitely. Over hundred years bankruptcies of country after country who thought they could get away with it because they had the reserve currency and the military power of the world. We are going to have fiscal discipline. It’s imposed upon us or we do the right thing and do it to ourselves the right way.... America knows the way, it doesn't have the will.
They've all but guaranteed that it is going to be imposed upon them by the outside now as long as status quo and can kicking which this new deal basically makes it almost impossible to not kick it without any real resistance internally anymore. Score another one for removal of the check called moral hazard in the system.
Was continued QE the goal of Washington all along this farce of a shutdown?
Of course... all they're doing is putting on a show for creditors... I know I keep harping on it, but EVERYTHING is directed at giving ambiguity to the FED's decision to keep printing. The longer they can convince people that they won't print forever (which is why QE4EVA was such an awesome mind fuck), then the longer they get to remain in power, protect their interests, and bolster provisions for the road ahead. The problem with trading on this knowledge is that the market can fall out in the meantime.
"then the longer they get to remain in power" - what's your over/under on this 2 years, 5 years, 10 years? It really might depend on what the rest of the world does.
I don't attempt to make timing decisions, as it's a fool's errand. I have no idea when these events transpire because I don't get to call the shots... simple as that.
I think the solution for most of us is to get as good of deals as we can on the things that we need, become more independent, save what we can, and have as diverse of a portfolio as possible, with a heavy lean towards tangible, durable investments and investments that have personal utility. Further, it's going to be incredibly important to have a network of people you can trust and rely upon for whatever needs you may have; and you need as many practical skills as possible so as to be equally as important to them.
The issue is simple, if you can fix the world, then do it... if you can't, then don't worry about it and go about your business. That's not to say that you need to bury your head in the sand as to what's happening, but shaving years off your life needlessly worrying about things you can't fix is fairly unproductive... of course, some people just have to find shit to worry about.
The problem with the "rest of the world" theory is that the world economy is incredibly interconnected and many states are dependent upon others for essential needs. This makes the traditional playbook a bit more muted. Things will rhyme, but not necessarily repeat. Aside from the fact that we've gotten nothing but complacency and, frankly, cooperation amongst most of the world's central banks and the longer our competitors can hollow-out our middle class and watch us put ourselves in a progressively worse financial position, the better it is for them. I'm not sure that a proactive strategy by any other nation can do as much damage as our own financial and monetary policies. They're smart enough to realize this.
Surpised and shocked ?
Is the Pope Jewish ?
All commodities to the moon, wheee!!!!
That SNAP program is about to get considerably more expensive....
completely "unexpected"!
LMFAO!!!
Looking like the plan is to turn SNAP off in the not too distant future. Then the suburbanites can cull the herd for them and the police can use all those awesome APCs to kill off the suburbanites. #winning
Well, we have been told in no uncertain terms that self defense is rayciss...
I guess you don't live in Florida.
edit: Reality is a fucking cunt, isn't she?
Hah! I wuzz gonna say "Here is an actual potential juror who doesn't watch the news!". Now I am reduced to "that's retarded, Sir".
Hey - good one!
Foward comrades ... see yall @ the riots...
this whole debt ceiling holdup and gov't shutdown was about Obamacare. Yup.
Congress found a way to control the independent Fed after all.
Posted to my Schwab account this morning:
Due to a technical issue, holders of some mortgage-backed securities may be seeing incorrect day change values for today. We are working to resolve this issue. We apologize for the inconvenience.
So in some ways, the Bernank did his job too well. But without quick follow up with reduced deficit, it will all be for naught. Interesting to see what the bond vigilanties do....
One more PM crash and then it is a new game...... to the moon
PS, I do love the bit about not needing to gather taxes. Really is just an extension of the thinking: If there is no downside to printing, why not fund the government with printing 100%. All intelectual honesty is thrown out.... Once we hit rock-bottom, the Austrians are going to look pretty good.
WTF is a bond vigilante?
The Bernank is the bond vigilante. Everytime somebody tries to sell he kicks them in the nuts.
In the new sparkly normal, selling should only be done by unicorns covered in sequins after permission has been granted by the rainbow babies.
WHERE the fuck are the bond vigilates?
I found two of them.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1skaCKoWJA&oref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DW1skaCKoWJA&has_verified=1
Pretty much what Dr. Engali said above.
You see Bernanke and Co. has a printing press, which can be used to crowd anyone out who doesn't. The Bond Vigilantes don't/didn't have a printing press, so they have been crowded out of the market.
"WTF is a bond vigilante?"
Some guy from the bottom third of his MBA class that just wanted to make a lot of money and not work too hard.
He now is divorced, works around the clock, pees blood and his dog hates him....
Oh how unfortunate
Dick Fisher stops bashing montary policy at the same time Kyle Bass stops recommending gold... expect the polar flip very soon now.
I assure you, Kyle Bass will continue to reccomend gold and has not stopped.
Did you see the clips from his latest Barefoot? The last few public utterances before this are also bereft of warnings and advice for little guys, with one clip even saying there is "nothing" little guys can do. I am not saying that he doesn't believe it anymore, I also don't believe that Dick Fisher is suddenly happy about our Yellenization. What I am saying is that their public pronouncements are undergoing marked changes. Capice?
He does no mention anything about the Chinese saying they are going to slow buying....and maybe be sellars
The actions of these sacks-o-shite are the self-fulfilling prophecy at work. They had no plans to taper, and they are openly looking for any reason to publicly justify not tapering.
In another bit of confidence-inspiring news, the McConnell-Reid deal to kick the can for another ~3 months reportedly included a nearly $3 Billion earmark for a Kentucky project (McConnell's home state). Surely this is only a coincidence...
http://wfpl.org/post/mcconnell-reid-deal-includes-3-billion-earmark-kent...
FUBAR to hell.
'Taper' was a way of talking-it-up, and talking it up, sans any action or cost, is one of the four major debanke tools that he discussed in 2009.
Talk is cheap, you don't have to do anything. Which just demonstrates the confidence-game nature of a fiat system.
What I wrote yesterday on this:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-16/treasury-bills-reprice-february...
Exactly true. Since the algo bots believe headlines they will buy, and buy some more. Eventually people will come to the full out realization that what comes out of the mouth of anyone who had any credibility is whatever is required to make the headlines look good (i.e. flat out lies, and continuing lies). They will do this because those with any power to punish them won't call them out on their lies, for fear they too will be called out on their lies.
Our information system and markets are the LIEPONZI with constant BULLISHING IT!TM.
What completely sucks about this is that we the people arn't just getting fucked now, but should we be around for the bell rining final round of ass jerking, knee kicking, and skull, teeth breaking finish, most of us will be put 6' under, or in FEMA camps for re-education and slave work.
This is the sad part, while we the people still have enough energy to do something we sit on our asses. When we don't is when the hammer will come down and those who FED this CONspiracy will be sitting in drone armed ivory towers playing video games killing the rest of us, until the world is truely theirs again.
Don't mistake what is going on here folks. Total setup for herd culling and slaughtering. The beauty of it is those in the ivory towers get moar and moar and moar of everything until 'we the people' have nothing (no freedom, no liberty, and no life).
Don't mistake what is going on here folks. Total setup for herd culling and slaughtering. The beauty of it is those in the ivory towers get moar and moar and moar of everything until 'we the people' have nothing (no freedom, no liberty, and no life).
This is always the basis for collective bargaining... it is the great cycle.
Just to help ensure that no-one actually pays attention to earnings or any fundamentals whatsoever, the Fed now dutifully picks up the ball from the exhausted DC clowns to keep the circus running.
Or you could have just listened to Peter Schiff the whole time explaining tapering was not a mathematical possibility at any time, and Fed bond buying is going to increase, as is always has, for the last 50 years.
ya because they were going to fucking taper if not for washington.
fuck them, bunch of fucking pricks
Yellin in a bunny suit, the INFLATIONARY BUNNY, SHE KEEPS PRINTING AND PRINTING AND PRINTING AND.....
Da FED, Da Fraud, LOL watch those money center banks stop international wires and transfers, Oh, they re already started...
all the ''buy the dippers'' look to be buying this morning dip.
what a fucking joke
That is the new economy. Buy the dip, let the Fed pump, make some quick Bennie Bucks, wash, rinse and repeat.
FUBAR.
Because they cannot stop..Only the dollar collapse or 2200 Gold can.
Tripple-dip in EU will be along soon.
John McCloy,
Or $130/barrel WTI.
The thing that worries me about Yellon and QE is she states that her focus is going to be all about jobs. But with technology really heating up in regards to tech replacing jobs, what happens if it turns out she's fighting a war that cannot be won?
Do we then get QE not only forever but in bigger and bigger dollops as the unemployment rate either holds firm or even goes higher due to jobs being replaced by tech (or even new jobs being taken by tech)?
She's no dummy, she might be a high IQ moron, but has to know these sorts of massive head winds exist.
just for a second i read your last sentence as "...these sorts of massive head wounds exist." sorry just thought i'd share. carry on.
As long as there are enough deflationists hoarding dollars who think they are going to become more valuable, the Fed is going to continue to shovel them out.
Tapering was never going to happen, nor will it happen. All U.S institutions have lost all credebility. The only thing we will see in the Zimbabwefacation of the U.S.S.A is moar printing.
After they have stolen everything, and realize that is still not enough, they will REALLY start the printing.
they ran out of stuff to steal , so they have to print more so there is somehting to steal
Yep. And this message is being received loud and clear by the BRICS.
I fully expect some movement from China regarding a new reserve currency within 12-24 months (perhaps sooner).
I think China will hold on to about $1T (or 5-6%) of US Treasuries because this IS their financial weapon to hold over the US in some future dispute or simply as a means to distract the US at the right time.
With the FED monetizing all of this it won't matter to anyone but the US. Everyone else in the world has gotten and getting a free ride of unprecidented profits on T-Bills held prior to 2008.
I also can't wait to see what Russia has up its sleve. They have been too quiet lately.
So far it's print until printing doesn't work.
Russia has been temporarily placated with our decisions on Syria.
As an aside, I think you give too much credibility to the "independence" of the BRICs/rest of the world. I think the degree of freedom to be completely independent of other states decreases by the day. The possible actions by any state are more and more range bound. There will have to be some type of world-wide event for this to change and I do not believe, in and of itself, a dollar collapse would get anywhere close to changing anything in this regard.
Agreed on all fronts.......the BRICS are planning something - far too quiet on that front - reality may be suspended in Washington/NY but it still has a way of raising its ugly head elsewhere on the planet.......China has probably written off the entire amount in $US treasuries by now and is ready to move ahead with the new reserve currency. Russia is chomping at the bit with Putin ready to put in the boot and Brazil would love to get back at the US for being spied on, not to mention its need to take a place on the world stage and undo the whole "South America = Africa of the Americas" (the way many Latin Americans perceive the US perception of their continent) thing. And India would love to shift attention away from its own nightmare economy.....So US credibility is now well and truly shot.....self inflicted wound/home goal/supreme idiocy/betrayal....call it what you will the result is the same. Kicking the can for a few months was the predictable and truly (abyss)mal resolution to this mess. Gold stocks should do well, however, for at least the next 3 months imho................
party like it's 1913 -27, the FED's won, low unemployment, low interest rates, and somebody's economy is booming, in main street america, that backwater of culture and finance, dey be singing dem blues and wait'n for da masters handouts. singing bye bye mis american pie, drove the chevy to ....
it's almost as if... no, nevermind. that's unpossible.
Well of course they're not going to restrain anything now. Congress just voted in an unlimited debt ceiling for the next 4 months (and don't expect that to end in 4 months either!). Now they really need the Fed to follow up and fire up the printing presses. We're going full retard on national debt!
Gold will see $2,000 at this rate.
I would think a lot higher than that given the idiocy in DC.
But not until the Paper Cartel is rendered impotent. Only God knows when that will be.
NeverOne; yes but you will not be able to sell it for anything near that in the U.S. Carry trade to China developing imvho.
China isn't going to take this. 2014 isn't looking very good for real business after the worst year I have ever seen.
It will be great for fake business though. So Wall Street will continue to soar.
Taper, taper, toilet paper.
So gold took off BEFORE this, no leaks or insider trading there eh! Surprised/not
pomo has begun. expect green very soon
Look, we have a new sawed-off cunt as th Feed chair who WILL RUN THIS FUCKING THING INTO THE GROUND....AND NO...THEY WONT FUCKING TAPER, ARE YOU KIDDING ME....
110B a month is what the fucking cunt will do when she gets her fat ass in office.
fuck her and the horse she rode in on!
Maybe the horse would fuck her, but under protest I'm sure.
Say it isn't so!
"Taper" was nothing more than a dis-information campaign for the muppets & sheeple.
I'm opening a printing press factory.
Let's see....I've stockpiled:
1) Food
2) Water
3) Med supplies
4) Guns
5) Ammunition
6) Like-Minded Individuals (LMIs)
Let the Revolution begin.
Don't forget communications. You will need to know when the National Guard and Army start going door-to-door and start digging around in the hills and woods - looking to 'rescue' people and re-locate them to the FEMA camps. Unless you can resist tanks and helicopters you will need to bug out and lay low. If they find your preps they will confiscate them and arrest you as a looter. I'm less worried about hungry mobs than I am about the gubmint knocking on my door.
Fiscal swamps tapering, QE swamped fiscal, fiscal swamps tapering, QE swamped fiscal ...
The vicious circle.
"Of course, there will be a price to pay 'at the end of the tunnel'"
My fear is that the end of the tunnel won't be reached for another 20 years at which point we'll be in the same absoluetly hopeless position as Japan, a country that has been QEing for over 20 years.
Mine too.
Fortunately for Japan not many countries stockpiled the Yen and noone in particular wanted to see the Yen become less popular. That's not the case with the dollar.
"My long-standing belief is that the Federal Reserve should never enact such asymmetric policies to protect stock market traders and investors. I believe my FOMC colleagues share this view."
- Dick
I'm thinking this thing Jan-Mar 2000 type hyperbolic into year end
well that was conveinent!
I walked out of my front door this morning and, I swear, I thought I heard the sound of printers whirring up again.
When immigration to the US reverses is when the ponzi will end. What good is an EBT card if Walmart is empty.
Need to rachet things up because the Chinese are going to dump the junk paper too.