October Sees Biggest Global Leading Indicator Slowdown In Past Year

Tyler Durden's picture

One of our favorite indicators of leading "global growth" is the Goldman swirlogram released each month, for two reasons: i) it succinctly summarizes on one chart what the near-term state of the global economy is, and ii) it is rather silly. Regardless of ii), the methodology does look at the entire assortment of available global leading indicators (which in the case of the US isn't saying much(, to determine the current state of the world economy. According to the just released update, as a result of a plunge in leading indicator acceleration, the world has just had its most slowdown-y month in the past year.

And Goldman's assessment.

  • The October Advanced GLI places the global industrial cycle further in the ‘Slowdown’ phase, characterised by positive but decreasing Momentum. This phase is generally less supportive for risky assets than ‘Expansion’.

This should explain why risky assets just hit a new all time high.

  • The October Advanced reading gives further evidence of a moderation in the global data, following continued improvement over the last few months. Although we would view a stabilisation at current levels as positive, a sustained deceleration from here would be potentially worrisome.

Nothing better than potentially worrisome: it means the Fed will soon be monetizing REITS, ETFs (like the BOJ), student loans, wheelbarrows, and everything else not nailed down. Bullish.

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FL_Conservative's picture

Its the fucking Republicans fault.   /  Get ready for a steady diet of that one.

Canadian Dirtlump's picture

Indeed. Also, I must note that if the fucking bloggers would stop trying to foment anarchy for profit we could get on shredding western society under the cover of new episodes of honey boo boo LMAO!

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Google Translate is not work on graph diagram, but for Boris, is look like giant global circle jerk...?

Canadian Dirtlump's picture

very close, the global reach around.

Theta_Burn's picture

"Now that the government has reopened and this threat to our economy is removed, all of us need to stop focusing on the lobbyists, and the bloggers, and the talking heads on radio and the professional activists who profit from conflict, and focus on what the majority of Americans sent us here to do, and that’s grow this economy, create good jobs, strengthen the middle class, educate our kids, lay the foundation for broad-based prosperity and get our fiscal house in order for the long haul."


Whats the worry?

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Idiot is better remain silent or confirm idiocy by idiotic statement. Barry is chatty too much.

SheepDog-One's picture

Oblahblah is like that old Run DMC song, he talks too much, he never shuts up!

LetThemEatRand's picture

"Its the fucking Republicans fault.   /  Get ready for a steady diet of that one."

Correct.  Both Teams will blame the other and the uber-moron population of mostly tribal Team followers will line up to blame the other Team and the circus will carry on because no one is looking behind the curtain.

adr's picture

It is the Republicans fault. Some of them believe there actually has to be money in the checking account to cash a check.

God, what morons. Everyone knows you can write checks all day long if the bank never checks your balance. Or if you have Fed overdraft protection.

Spend, spend, spend. Somebody will pay the tab someday, right?

FL_Conservative's picture

....or if you're using your EBT card at WalMart in Louisiana.

NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re: or if you're using your EBT card at WalMart in Louisiana

Or living off of the Big-AG scam pretty much anywhere.

slotmouth's picture

The S&P 500 is the only leading indicator that matters.  Is it at an all time high?  If so that means it will go higher.

rubearish10's picture

****WINNER****!!!!! You are correct sir!

knukles's picture

Slotmouth... sounds like you passed all three levels of the CFA exam in one go and worked for one of my olde asshole equity bosses for way the fuck too long

SheepDog-One's picture

It's like an infinitely expandable hot air balloon...just expand it bigger than the earth itself no problem.

adr's picture

If a stock goes up by 100% in six months, that means revenue, profit, and business doubled in six months too, right?

Was all this shit orchestrated months ago to create a cover story for an abysmal earnings season everyone knew was coming. Nobody is even talking about the earnings season which should be sending stocks limit down. The budget farce being negotiated sent the Dow up 700 points in a few days.

NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:   right

The stock market has NEVER been a measure of revenue, profit, or business.

It's a measure of the optimism of (mostly male) "investors" at being able to sell the stock they own to another sucker at a higher price at a future time.  

The measurements of revenue and profit are just one component of what creates optimism in the prostate gland of the "investors". 

FeralSerf's picture

Sheep of the country unite! You have nothing to lose but the few remaining threads of your wool and the lamb chops of your younguns. And stop listening to the feral sheep outside of The Pen. They're just a bunch of no-good conspiracy theorist bloggers.

NOTaREALmerican's picture

Scotty, we need more debt to escape from the austery vortex!!

SheepDog-One's picture

Not according the the Philly Fed, where it's always funny.

adr's picture

Stop focusing on things like logic, truth, and mathematics. Those things will just get you down and cause economic problems.

As long as you just focus on fantasy, the glorious Obama, and the ever closing highs of the stock market, ALL WILL BE WELL!!!

Please thank Obama before every meal, and pray to Lord Yellen every night and all your dreams will come true.

SheepDog-One's picture

To me the world is on Willy Wonka logic now....we live in a world of pure imagination, where the Snozzberries actually taste like Snozzberries!

NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  we live in a world of pure imagination

Humans have always existed on pathological optimism about their own bullshit (pure internal imagination).

They couldn't reproduce if it wasn't so.  

adr's picture

I think Snozberries tastes like the inside of some tribesman's nose. Probably Blankfein.

I don't think you want to eat those.

29.5 hours's picture


Is eBay part of that leading indicator? The CFO is not encouraging...



RhoneGSM's picture

I have some Beany Babies that I'd like them to monetize, please.

orangegeek's picture

now where can I get some Goldman swirlogram crayons???


this chart needs some more fucking colors

mobydick's picture

There is no such thing as a free lunch, there is no such thing as a free lunch, there is no such thing as a free lunch, there is no such thing as a free lunch, IS THERE?