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You Either Believe In Magic Or You Believe In Math
While Santiago Capital's Brent Johnson believes "anything is possible," he warns "there's a catch." While it may be true for the individual (climb Everest, win a gold medal, walk on the moon), it is not true for the world at large because, as he so eloquently notes in this brief presentation, "the best thing we can learn from history is... that the world does not learn from history." And there is indeed plenty that is occurring once again - in oh-so-predictable cycles - that we have seen time and time again... and apparently choose to ignore the conclusion. As Johnson concludes, "you either believe in magic, or you believe in math."
Something here for everyone... 4th Turnings, Kondratieff Waves, Dalio's beautiful deleveraging, the unsustainable nature of the current cycle and the pulling forward of our demand... "you either believe in magic... or you believe in math"
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Magic is easy. Math is hard.
Math is for bloggers. /
8 out of 10 Americans believe in ANGELS...
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57347634/
It would only seem logical that 10 out of 10 Americans (including members of the House and Senate) would also believe in magic.
It would also explain a lot...
Hopefully Jim Cramer will be around after the crash to teach us how to build a new economy.
All we need to do is produce more.....with less money.......while taxed more........and unemployed......
Why not believe in both?
ZIRP4EVA
Infinite debt CAN exist. It just won't be very pleasant for the masses.
I will see your 4 Quatloos and raise you 8
Can you make change for 2 Ningi's and a Pu?
Only if he puts on a big red nose and clown shoes when he doees his show.
+1 comment of the week!
This is easy to reconcile if you think of Angels ad "Aliens with a far out agenda".
Oh lighten up!
Do you really believe what cbsnewshatclowns say?
Following that logic, Arthur Clarke's third law "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic" would suggest 10 out of 10 Americans are intellectually incapable of comprehending Mathematics.
Seems about right: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-25/truly-exceptional-and-dumber-ev...
Very true! In the early 70's when the bar code was in its infancy, I told some young friends at a party that the supermarkets will have laser readers and scan the food without ringing the register and they said: "yea right"
I also told them that Budapest is actually two cities Buda and Pest and that's when they really started laughing. Ignorant Sheeple. Nowadays however, they help me use my smart phone.
It looks like about 43% of zhers believe in angels.
What, the other 57% have never seen the Victoria's Secret specials on TV?
ANd the only thing stupider than a materialist is ... hang on ...
Do you believe in magic, in a young HFT's heart...
I know of people who believe in both:
Smart zealots (who believe in Angels and math) as it suits them, and those who believe in "Magic and Meth" as it suits them.
I'm in the other camp that also believes in both: Math and "making magic". Nudge, nudge, wink, wink.
I don't get it.
Oh, wait.... nope, still don't get it.
If this is some kind of sex reference, please realize I've been married for almost 2 decades. Which means I haven't had sex in so long I'd have to use math to figure it out.
A talking goat in a comic told me that magic is indistinguishable from science
http://www.wizardschoolcomic.com/index.php?id=281
Paulina Gretzky is easy on the eyes, hard on the ...
Just enjoy Paulina and stop being so miserable!
;)
..but we can GROW our way out of our debt. Because unicorns
Because Obama.
Because Bankers figured out a way to make money without having to work for it.
To be honest, it was a bit of work capturing the US government.
About a century's worth, it appears.
This time it will be different, really.
Math doesn't win elections, free ponies and pink unicorns do.
@adr: Because bankers figured out how to steal money using the police power of the state.
You mean promises of free ponies and pink unicorns.
it's more than that. it's millenium of work. now the banksters don't have to have their armed people show up at your door and take what you have. they simply transfer from your account to theirs. and it's not just in the united states. goldman especially has made a wreck of western europe. it really is pure genuis, i give them credit for that. and it's more pleasant than being disembowelled after having watched your females being violated.
so - things could be worse. think of the positives!! lloyd and jamie, wishing you both a steak and vintage tonight, like last night and tomorrow and the next to celebrate your spoils.
The only thing history teaches us is this: in History, what must be. will be.
Observer effects the result! Quantum Easing!!!!
Math is based on theory. Stupid theory.
Einstein said that you cannot travel faster than the speed of light.
Stupid Einstein theory.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/God-Particle-Researchers-by-John-Lake-H...
Fuck you institutional thinkers at your fucking .govie think tanks.
Over.
I always like to say that math is a system of rules which one can use to predict outcomes. It doesn't really explain how the universe works per se.
For example, I can use math to calculate how much money is in my checking account, but that doesn't mean it is worth anything. I could predict how fast something might fall, knowing exactly where an object is at any time, but it doesn't explain gravity.
Regards,
Cooter
Will they ever overcome the Coulomb effect?
That's all that matters to us.
Well, it's the main thing affecting this fusor.
We need results, and quickly.
Huge Star Trek fan (watched the original in my early years).
What we need is Star Trek...beam me up Scotty, pronto, now.
Of course, we also need fiat, socialism, and free medical care...all moronic concepts in the real world, and will not survive for long.
Human nature overcomes all fantasies by force of fact, over the force of will (your will has no mass, while debt does !!).
Debt is hanging like a Sword of Damocles over our economies and soceities.
Debt is REAL !
Anyone watching Star Trek is definitely wasting valuable time.
Utter bullshit from start to finish, topped off with crappy acting.
Are you describing Star Trek, or the bullshit that CONgress just pulled off?
would ben & janet's field be quantum mechanics or string theory, cooter?
chaos theory
Did you forget /sarc or are you seriously that stupid?
Do I have to put /sarc or or you really that brilliant?
Special relativity predicts that you cannot hop into a rocket ship and exceed the speed of light. General relativity actually does provide for a mechanism that is like a "warp bubble" of sorts. (Alcubierre drive) We just have no friggin clue how to create and take advantage of one. The odd thing here is that special and general relativity are not in conflict, as locally, one in the warp bubble would not be moving faster than C. The thing about science, is that it never provides the truth, nor does it ever provide complete answers. It does provide useful descriptions and explanations of nature where it must always be acknowledged that those explanations could be either wrong turn out to be incomplete once a different scale is observed, e.g. classical mechanics is wrong when you get really small or start moving really fast, but it does a bang-up job of predicting where an artillery shell is going to land.
Math, on the other hand, is a language. It is a tool. It is a human construct used to describe the world around us. It is also exceedingly useful, but it can be used incorrectly.
And I missed the sarc on that too.
You copy/paste one more time and I'm going to down vote you like the down_vote_bot. Seriously bro.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/einstein/hotsciencetwin/
Over.
Uh the only thing I copied and pasted was "Alcuberri drive" because I typically fuck up the spelling. But, go ahead and down vote away.
Or should there be a /sarc at the end of that too?
No, he used the "Seriously Bro" ending...
DaddyO
edit: Over
Gotchya. Still learning the ropes here. And sometimes it's hard to tell the difference between sarc and snark. Just sayin'
Could you also learn how to be less annoying?
thanks in advance
Let's loosen up bro's. It's really not that serious.
It's fight club. You have to be loose, limber, ready to strike and ready to be strucken.
Over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OBZf0QdKdE
We have clearance Clarence, what is your vector Victor.
finally, an actual fight club reference... do you realize that most of these doomerdouches have no idea what the movie is even about? There are little packs of school girls on here that run around voting as a bloc, it's so gay.
Einstein never claimed to be right, just to have thought about it carefully.
However, his ideas have stood the test of time.
Thing is, his ideas only come into play under conditions that humans didn't evolve senses to observe, which is why, I think, many people struggle with them. That's no excuse for unfounded criticism though.
You can spot people who know math pretty easily these days -- they're the ones with dark circles around their eyes from not being able to sleep at night.
I'm a freaking raccoon these days.
Go ahead and laugh, that was a seriously funny comment!!
DaddyO
Amen Brother! I guess I can feel better every time someone tells me to "don't worry so much...", from now on.
Haha...you too? I think I've been a raccoon of sorts for the past couple of weeks. But I think it has to do with the amount of time reading on a computer screen and allergies. I would rather be informed and learn than watch DWTS. I never miss an opportunity to learn something.
SBD
Central bankers and politicians have the same mentality as penny stock bulls. Every dreaming of the 10,000 bagger while they pour their money into a complete fraud with a good story.
Your point being?
Just what is that you doomerdouches dream about? Losing more money? People not succeeding? The shadenfreude on here is unbelievable.
Math helps us understand what we are about to find out some other way.
It's the best crystal ball we have found.
Gravity
General relativity
Halley's Comet
Atomic bombs
The sun exploding
Over indebted nations going bust.
How did that work out for LTCM? If you make some bad assumptions, though your math may be brilliant, elegant, impeccable, your conclusions may be wrong.
Another example: First you assume that space is void and the only force operating is gravity, the current astronomical orthodoxy. Then you use math to calculate the mass necessary to generate enough gravity to explain the energetic events you observe and you come up with the theoretical construct of a "black hole" and "dark matter."
But what if space is instead sparsely populated with ionized atoms, a thin plasma, and is electrically active (ie. there are currents through space)? Electromagnetic force is something 10^32 times more powerful than gravity. No matter how perfect and elegant the math, the black hole and dark matter conclusions are erroneos because of the limitations of initial assumption.
They made other people's money disappear and they didn't go to prison. Thats magic.
The big difference between gravity and elecromagnetism, given their ranges are both theoretically infinite, is that gravity is always additive. Electromagnetism has a positive and negative side - attraction and repulsion. Gravity doesn't have that problem, it's ALWAYS attractive, therefore, even though it is much weaker than electromagnetism, it always wins.
You state that "the black hole and dark matter conclusions are erroneos because of the limitations of initial assumption." with no supporting evidence whatsoever - can you point to any, or are you just rambling?
On the subject of bullshit assumptions, please see ECONOMICS.
Then there is Aether theory. Don't laugh, Tesla learned it in school in the 1870s and used it all his life. He also studied Einstein's theories, understood them, and rejected them because they had certain flaws, and did not work as well as what he was using.
Dark energy and dark matter sound a lot like Aether theory to me.
I Read about Aether theory years ago and I couldn't see too much there to disagree with. It helps with visualising propagation of gravity, though it seems to create other problems like no action at a distance and measurable differences in speed of gravitational propagation. But like a fish that cannot see the water that it swims in, gravity is still a mystery to me.
Regarding initial assumptions and the systemic failure that they can potentially introduce. The elephant in the room is perpetual economic growth, closely followed by the Keynesian assumption that governments will run surpluses during times of economic expansion, but will use deficits judiciously during contraction.
Then we have the famous "housing prices always rise"
These assumptions alone are enough to topple our rickety economic system.
Absolutely right, Bastiat.
LTCM made the classic mistake of assuming price distribution on the "tails" conformed to the standard distribution, and therefore non-"lumpy". It isn't, and they found out the hard way, in addition to making rather large bets just because their models said it was "Low Risk".
Newtonian models break down when trying to model three orbiting bodies at the same time, all influencing each other.
Math is just a tool, and like others have said, any tool can be used improperly. Given the hubris of some of the market "gurus" out there and the HFT guys, I'm quite sure they're going to be the victims of their own unintended consequences.
An interesting theory I ran across can be found at: http://www.lnhatom.com/
Whichever you 'believe' in, Math always wins.
Exponential growth is a killer in a finite universe.
I'll have two orders of fiat magic with a side of debt fairy please.
Would you like some complimentary unicorns and skittles with that order sir?
Made me laugh. Green arrow for skateboarder.
Sorry dude. The stupid computer is busted. I can't like take your order an stuff.
http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/jekyll.htm
.
The Creature from Jekyll Island
by G. Edward Griffin
Chapter 10
" What is the Mandrake Mechanism?
It's the most important financial lesson of your life!
Who creates the money to pay the interest?
One of the most perplexing questions associated with this process is "Where does the money come from to pay the interest?" If you borrow $10,000 from a bank at 9%, you owe $10,900. But the bank only manufactures $10,000 for the loan. It would seem, therefore, that there is no way that you -- and all others with similar loans -- can possibly pay off your indebtedness. The amount of money put into circulation just isn't enough to cover the total debt, including interest. This has led some to the conclusion that it is necessary for you to borrow the $900 for interest, and that, in turn, leads to still more interest. The assumption is that, the more we borrow, the more we have to borrow, and that debt based on fiat money is a never ending spiral leading inexorably to more and more debt.
This is a partial truth. It is true that there is not enough money created to include the interest, but it is a fallacy that the only way to pay it back is to borrow still more. The assumption fails to take into account the exchange value of labor. Let us assume that you pay back your $10,000 loan at the rate of approximately $900 per month and that about $80 of that represents interest. You realize you are hard pressed to make your payments so you decide to take on a part-time job.
The bank, on the other hand, is now making $80 profit each month on your loan. Since this amount is classified as "interest," it is not extinguished as is the larger portion which is a return of the loan itself. So this remains as spendable money in the account of the bank. The decision then is made to have the bank's floors waxed once a week. You respond to the ad in the paper and are hired at $80 per month to do the job. The result is that you earn the money to pay the interest on your loan, and -- this is the point -- the money you receive is the same money which you previously had paid. As long as you perform labor for the bank each month, the same dollars go into the bank as interest, then out of the revolving door as your wages, and then back into the bank as loan repayment.
It is not necessary that you work directly for the bank. No matter where you earn the money, its origin was a bank and its ultimate destination is a bank. The loop through which it travels can be large or small, but the fact remains all interest is paid eventually by human effort. And the significance of that fact is even more startling than the assumption that not enough money is created to pay back the interest. It is that the total of this human effort ultimately is for the benefit of those who create fiat money.
It is a form of modern serfdom in which the great mass of society works as indentured servants to a ruling class of financial nobility.
Understanding the Illusion . . .
That's really all one needs to know about the operation of the banking cartel under the protection of the Federal Reserve. But it would be a shame to stop here without taking a look at the actual cogs, mirrors, and pulleys that make the magical mechanism work. It is a truly fascinating engine of mystery and deception.
Let us, therefore, turn our attention to the actual process by which the magicians create the illusion of modern money. First we shall stand back for a general view to see the overall action.
Then we shall move in closer and examine each component in detail. " ... g.e.g.
Do you believe in magic?
Deep in Janet Yellen's heart.
Saved by the printing press every time it starts.
Here's the issue with math:) It'a real PLOS one study with MRI images and the whole works on how the "fear of math gives people real physical pain"..that's why us and the government always lose...
http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2012/10/algo-duping-plos-one-journal.html
A very good essay on being a skeptic..written by a quant and relative right now...modelers have more responsibility now than they ever have...
http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2013/10/on-being-data-skeptic-modelers-ha...
issue with math, without the benefits of complete comprehension
or study, but basically; it is of the "mind" and is domain
limited, fear being the essential core tainting all progressions
there from. there be other domains with other fixations and
expressions that exist here, they do not comport and never will.
life is musical and math is but one approach toward appreciation
and comprehension.
.
the information revolution, therefore, makes me sick and
laugh in some disgusting fashion.
.
bad mood coming on the heels of finalizing snooping and
personal trust: extension and systemic normalization of
meta, marketed, human manipulated and common tendencies.
eddy himself would turn over in his dust.
all sold for fiat out of nuthin' for nuthin',
with no end in sight. no ends in sight.
no ends in sight. no ends in sight.
ALVIN and the Chipmunks presents -Its Magic
Hahaha -- The two phrases "believe in magic" and "walk on the moon" in the same one paragraph article.
I believe in titties...and math...but mostly titties.
36(D)+36(D)=Wee
Math is logic. Magic is deception. No surprise political and religious quacks do more magic than math. Smart people stay clear of them and thats why they fuck up everything they touch. That and if you criticize them they usually kill you, or ruin your life.
Math is any system with fixed rules and defined entities. Magic is the system where the rules are reversed.
Step right up and buy your admission, hawks Barack outside a Washington Tent. "See diminutive Yellin using a mathematical magic sleigh of hand, blow an unburstable gigantic bubble." No refunds.
Where but a blog like ZH would you ever get this kind of concentrated information?
The chart is a graphic illustration of the rise to "peak government." Government is the largest it can get and it will be all downhill from here. It can take a larger and larger slice of the American pie but the pie will shrink even faster.
Congress is the Neville Chamberlain of this age, waving a piece of paper and declaring peace...while the aggressive central bank cartel that ruined Germany now sets about ruining the USA in the same way. The same way.
Art Cashin wrote an interesting piece on kingworldnews about the Weimar Republic. To which I would add Hemingway's quip to an interviewer who asked him how he went bankrupt. 'Slowly at first, then all at once,' he replied. Or words to that effect.
As the globalist central bank cartel shifts its core interests from West to East, it employs every device to lie about its mind, method and aims.
History: we should look at the pattern of the central banks and their ruinous history for every land they inhabit.
It won't be different this time.
According to Deutsche Bank:
https://app.box.com/s/otdvclw8ijxzflhkhem6
October 8, 2013
Bretton Woods III and the Global Savings Glut
Summary
History suggests that periods of global economic expansion are characterized by symbiotic imbalances rather than balanced arrangements that satisfy theoretical ideals. Therefore, it is important to understand the factors that drive the imbalances in each period as well as the resulting distortions. In our view, demographics will have a significant impact on the future trajectory of the world economy. In this report we specifically focus on the implications on savings and current accounts.
Population trends imply that we are entering a phase where rapid aging will cause many countries to generate persistent current account surpluses. This raises the question – who will generate the world’s deficits?
World demographics is not neatly spaced out such that some countries generate surplus savings exactly when others need to fund deficits. Moreover, there are many factors that may prevent surplus countries from funding deficit countries. Thus, we have a situation where countries like India, Brazil and Indonesia may attempt to tame their deficits before old countries like Japan and Germany enter their dissaving phase. The resulting savings glut could be further exacerbated by a likely increase in China’s current account surplus.
Thus, the emerging international economic system, dubbed by us as Bretton Woods III, will yet again depend on the United States to act as the demand source of last resort. Meanwhile, demographics will hold down the real cost of international capital whether or not the US decides to absorb part of it. In turn, the ability of world’s financial system to allocate excess savings will be tested again. Young emerging markets with the ability to sensibly deploy cheap capital could benefit disproportionately from this environment.
All very interesting if you live long enough to survive the coming financial ruin of the USA on its current trajectory.
I've lived long enough already...
Anything else is a bonus!
:-D
Just in time for the NWO. Tin foil hats and all......
Actually the interest is paid to the lender and the money does not always come from a bank. Some of the interest must be paid out to risk elements (money lost due to default) and some to overhead. While it is true that the bank makes the entry that allows you the borrower to make a claim against goods and services with the proceeds of your loan it is really the good name of the borrower and his pledge to repay that circulates as 'money'. Yes there is profit left over. The evil banks are really trading on our promises. It is these promises that make up much of the money supply. Banks do misbehave but the factional reserve system is not inherently bad. Saving in the promises of others is risky however. It would be safer for most to save in wealth assets that hold up to inflation and have minimal risk.
I like gold bullion. I hear it is on sale.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDYNuD4CwlI
I will have a spoonful of that!
I'm so old I almost forgot that song. Thanks for the memories!
I'm really confused since the fourth grade.
If 1 x 0 = 1
Why does 0 x 1 = 0?
Where did the 1 go?
Zero has no value. No value against a unit of value still leaves a unit of value. Short lived as it is.
Sure you can pull theory and make me look stupid. (which as a sheeple I probably am)
But still:
1$ x 0$ = 1$ {or a unit of labor unused still has a value of a unit of labor)
0$ x 1$ = 1$ {a nill (idle) value of a unit of labor, but unused, still has a value as a unit of labor}
Who the crap invented this stuff?
But it was a good video and shows that those in the know are following cyclical trends. And the math.
I for one am glad that you didn't try to divide your 1 with that zero.
Look out for that, it's a trap.
Over.
Never was the math wizz. BTD. Works. But don't /TD. Unless your averaging the buy.
and Out.
?
quick: Tyler.
READ!
PER THE NASDAQ, THERE WERE 91 IPOS IN THE FIRST NINE MONTHS.
THIRD QUARTER = 59 NEW LISTINGS. 38 IPOS.
In 1996, there were 675 IPOs.
Last year there were 19 IPOs.
In 2006 and 2007- there were over 100 IPOs each year.
Business growth, not M&As create value and job growth.
Let's hope this sets a strong trend!!!
:)
(trends defeat monetary policy, ask the tech stocks circa 1996-2002)
Maybe this sets a precedence for American banks to lend again.
We also need China to remove it's barriers against the US financial sector. IT's better than placing bets in Macau.
btw, this didn't come from the banks. ECONOMIC RECOVERY COMES FROM INVESTORS.
this guy made a coat of arms? what a fucking pretentious tosser....
Joseph Heller implies that you cannot learn from history because so much of it is fiction.
what people here do not understand is the human uncertainty principle, the bedrock of all beliefs. That both Church and Bankers have understood better than anybody else.
We like to think we are rationally driven as sons of Aristotle and Newton. Think again.
The church sold the concept of the afterlife and fear of hell to win its power in this material world. Dominus and Mercator, as the Borgias sang, on the backs of Excommunicados mongering and indulgence selling.
The Bankers sold the concept of golden tomorrows to borrow the sweat of man's brow today and build up their Ponzi schemes thanks to Mother Nature's gifts embedded in the earth's crust.
We all need to believe in tomorrows, and we sell ourselves to the clever fella and nothing can change that sense of human despair in front of the unknown, that the soul-less know how to exploit to the bone marrow.
Krugman where are you, promise me debt to infinity is my talisman and I'll follow you to kingdom come.