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European Macro Fundamentals Slump To 3-Month Lows; Stocks At Record Highs
While "hard" data has been scarce in the US thanks to the shutdown, we recently noted that whet little we had recently indicated notable weakness relative to the survey-based "soft" data. Goldman has, in the past, indicated how little forecasting power the soft survey data has in Europe and yet still, day after day we are treated to the herd of mainstream media types proclaiming that Europe is recovering and that their fundamentals have turned a corner. The problem with that "story" is that is that is a lie. In fact, European macro data has been sliding since the start of September and has plunged recently to 3 month lows. Of course, the reality is that a record high for European stocks is all that matters to the fast-money charging momo players and betting against divergences from fundamentals is for dummies...
So please - please - do not try and pretend that the reason to buy European stocks is that fundamentals are improving - they are not! And Greece, well we already showed that they need a 3rd bailout, so don't start!
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Greece needs a 4th bailout, not a 3rd:
http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2013/06/20/greece-requires-4th-bailout/
And as long as the world prints, multiples will expand and stock markets will rise. Apparently, so will unemployment:
http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2013/10/18/around-the-globe-10-18-2013/
Latest poll from Greece ... the harassed, arrested, attacked Golden Dawn party, with leaders under arrest, holding firm in 2nd place in polls, behind hard left party Syriza
Syriza (leftist) 23.5%
Golden Dawn (far right) 17.5%
New Democracy (Samaras, current gov't, centre-right) 13.5%
KKE (Communist) 5.5%
and various others
http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2013/10/17/greece-exclusive-double-shock-for...
And ... Political revolution in France underway
The so-called 'extreme' National Front party led by Ms Marine Le Pen, is now the leading French political party in some polls, as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard just covered in an excellent article
Seems French workers, women, youth, the middle class, are figuring out the centre-Left Socialists are not their friends, and the centre-Right party is not on their side either ...
The spirit of Charles de Gaulle is back, as when de Gaulle sent a French battleship to New York to collect and demand the promised payment in gold for dollars, eventually leading to Nixon's closing of the US dollar 'gold window'
The National Front platform:
- Immediately leaving the euro
- Re-negotatiating the EU and then giving French voters the option to leave the EU altogether
- Separating France from NATO and the USA war-mongering machine
- Economic focus on jobs, worker incomes and making it more attractive for business to provide those incomes
- Kicking out illegal immigrants
- Holding a line of classic French society against pressures from Islamic or other elements
The Evans-Pritchard article in the UK Telegraph -
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100025783/ti...
Strange isn't it, the media always portrays anyone right of center as "extreme", the left is never "extreme". TEA party, Golden Dawn, National Front are all media "extremes".
The EUR and GBP getting into nose bleed sections. Awaiting Tyler's tweet regarding UK's next QE right about now...
EU must be worried about stability.
whatsis---------------
Don't worry, I am certain the Tylers will make something out of nothing again------
Keep those clicks coming
Thanks Tylers for ZH!
I hear they are going to just combine bailouts 4 through 17 in order to stop having to do this.
The fundamentals in Venezuela suck too, but their stock market is doing great.
Same forces at work.
Screamin' by?? Er, buy?
Euro macros and cheese. mmmmmmmm!!!!!
impossible!!! Mercedes , Porsche and BMW sales are up double digits. Are we talking Romania maybe?
The stock markets have gone full retard, absolutely insane.
Solar City is up 9% heading for 300% gains in one year on a company that almost couldn't even IPO.
Nobody cares about fraudulent accounting, profit, or anything that really matters. As long as potential revenue seems to be expanding, ie Amazon, and somebody keeps handing deep pocket investors free cash, this thing is going to keep getting more absurd every day.
The sad thing is just about everyone admits the stock market is absurd, but again they don't care.
People care, but, as the Tylers have so rightly pointed out over and over again, asset prices are highly correlated with the Fed's balance sheet. Put simple, $85B a month is an astounding number, and it has to go somewhere.
People also realize, however, what happens when the Fed stops printing. No one believes this rally is based on economic fundamentals. So if the Fed every stops printing, the market will crash immediately.
All these companies do is borrow money cheap and do stock buybacks. CAPEX and hiring don't exist. Demand is a joke.
i want to fucking strangle everyone i see on fucking tv with there stupid fucking smiles about how the fucking market continues to make new fucking highs, pretending that the fundamentals have gotten better and that is the reason we are going higher.
also there fucking smiles about how the fed wont taper until at least 2014, ya assholes that is great news, 5 fucking years since this fucked up program has started, they can not withdraw the tapering program.
fuck all u wall st bankers, i fucking hope u guys one day r fucking jumping off buildings, bridgers, etc to your deaths you fucking thieves.
thismarketis-------
Wow!!!!
I have never seen so much fucking in one post---congratultions!!!!!!!!!!1
o ya, no chance the s&p does not gain another 7 pts today to finish at 1750 going into the weekend.
fucking bullshit.
we need a fucking crash asap
Ever seen a steam engine explode? Spectacular.
This site is full of psychos and that is why I read it every day.
Thankfully, all we do is talk----no threat from this fight club