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Theater Of The Absurd: Greenspan Writes Book On Economic Forecasting
Given his track record, Alan Greenspan's publication of a guide to economic forecasting will likely prove as successful as Lance Armstrong's guide to drug-free cycling. As Bloomberg reports, Greenspan's new book "The Map and the Territory" is about as credible as art history by Mr. Magoo; as it pretends to tackle the subject of forecasting while saying next to nothing about the author’s historic failure to reduce the risks leading to the crisis, which he calls "almost universally unanticipated." Bloomberg's Daniel Akst sums it up best with his concluding sentence: "'The Map and the Territory' is an infuriating book, one that will leave readers wondering how its author could have come all this way and yet remain so hopelessly lost." Indeed...
...
As Fed chairman until 2006, practically the eve of the financial crisis, Greenspan couldn’t see the storm on the horizon.
Despite his mastery of the techniques described at somewhat numbing length in his book, he failed to draw any useful conclusions from a host of indicators that were pointing to trouble.
Omens were plentiful: the bubble in housing prices, the gross inadequacy of banking capital, the systemic risks of money-market funds, the explosive dangers of complex derivatives, the rise of an enormous and poorly regulated shadow banking system, the transparent pandering of the bond-rating companies, the collapse in mortgage-lending standards and the massive overleveraging of U.S. consumers.
...
“The Map and the Territory” pretends to tackle the subject of forecasting while saying next to nothing about the author’s historic failure to reduce the risks leading to the crisis, which he calls “almost universally unanticipated.”
...
Greenspan’s plodding text oscillates maddeningly between equivocation and chutzpah. He implies that it was a mistake to bail out the big banks in 2008, yet doesn’t say what he would have done instead, leaving us to wonder if, in Ben Bernanke’s shoes, he would have let the global financial system go up in flames.
...
But this is an odd concern from the man whose actions as Fed chief gave rise to faith in the “Greenspan put,” the notion that, while he was in office, the central bank would rush to float sinking markets with lower interest rates whenever they faltered.
“The Map and the Territory” is an infuriating book, one that will leave readers wondering how its author could have come all this way and yet remain so hopelessly lost.
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Reading this book would be like taking sailing lessons from Gilligan and the Skipper.
"The use of a growing array of derivatives and the related application of more-sophisticated approaches to measuring and managing risk are key factors underpinning the greater resilience of our largest financial institutions .... Derivatives have permitted the unbundling of financial risks." -- Alan Greenspan May 2005
This is all I need to read.
If he had been a real libertarian he would have pushed for an end to the Fed chair position when he had it.
He was an Objectivist, not a libertarian, one of Ayn Rand's inner circle,
but clearly a traitor to all he once held dear.
I always hoped he would recant his Fed work and re-iterate his hard-money arguments now that he is no longer on the payroll.
Oh well. I guess when you go this far down the road there is no turning back.
This is fuckin' priceless. Thx for the laugh.
Good one TD...just heard honey boo boo was the ghost writer
Reading this book would be like taking sailing lessons from Gilligan and the Skipper.
They had a power boat, not a sailboat.
Also, navigation and sailing ability are 2 entirely different things...
Dear MDB:
You seem to know Gilligan and the Skipper quite well.
Your typical postings are quite "Gilliganesque"
Gold and Economic Freedom
by Alan Greenspan
Published in Ayn Rand's "Objectivist" newsletter in 1966, and reprinted in her book, Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal, in 1967.http://www.constitution.org/mon/greenspan_gold.htm
Relax people - this book is a Matrix IQ test. Anyone taking this book seriously is deeeeeeeeeeeeep in the Matrix.
I know a guy at work who likely extoll the genius of Greenspan's insights in this book because he reads this kind of crap in an attempt to look smart.
The guy quotes Krugman to me. How much can a guy take? After I shredded Krugman to bits, he came back citing another guy he saw on Charlie Rose (Charlie Rose, WTF?) that was a bit more realistic than Krugman.
For those in the know, this is almost as absurd as Andrew "“The bank, Mr. Van Buren, is trying to kill me, but I will kill it” Jackson's mug on the bank's $20 bill.
Jackson is rolling over in his grave... both at the way he's mocked and the near complete monetary ignorance of the American people.
Or the Washington D.C. Federal Reserve building opening up to the Abraham "I kicked the bankers out when I created debt free greenbacks" Lincoln memorial.
I bet they chuckle every time they open that door and see the guy who cut off the bankers larger than life.
Same as it ever was.
You all know what to do: grab 10 copies on the bookshelf and move them to the "Religious Fiction" shelf of the store.
Fuck you, GreenSpam!
Title shouldve been."Mr. Magoo Tries to Rewrite History, Pt 2"
"If you understood my book, perhaps I mistyped."
Let me guess, he doesn't apologize to Brooksley Born.
He did write this in 1966 but he must have had a change of opinion (or someone changed it for him)
Gold and Economic Freedom by Alan Greenspan
"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.
This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard."
http://www.constitution.org/mon/greenspan_gold.htm
He must have been given a bottle of Goldwasser...and found out later on the flakes he got were tungsten. Then his deep hatred for gold ensued.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Goldwasser2.jpg
When you dance with the devil, the devil changes you, you don't change the devil.
BTW, gold as money is old school Money Power / Rothschild.
We really don't want to go there.
We need an educated active population...
Therefore, get ready for the collapse because the average person is ignorant and, more often than not, willfully so.
Re: If he had been a real libertarian
That saying about athiests in foxholes applies to Libertarians and "Conservatives" too.
Everybody loves free money.
Good thing since 2008 everyone sure learned their lesson from disastrous derivatives.....oh wait....today they're floating derivatives to make the early 2000's look like nothing.
Don't worry though, I'm sure they got this shit this time around.
"Reading this book would be like taking sailing lessons from Gilligan and the Skipper."
That's not really fair you know. Tropical storms come up very quickly and as the song goes: "If not for the courage of the fearless crew the Minnow would be lost." Furthermore, they had the good sense to defer to the scientist on matters of survival. The only mistake they made was bringing the Howells along instead of a third hot chick. If they'd done that, they would never have to leave the island.
I'm going to have to play devil's advocate on your Gilligan's Island assertions. First, while it is true the crew of the SS Minnow acted valiantly, they obviously failed to confirm the latest weather reports before embarking on their pleasure cruise (a clear cut case of Negligence Per Se). Second, the actions of said Gilligan and the "Skipper" only confirm their recklessly negligent behavior patterns; also there is evidence that Gilligan is borderline mentally retarded.
ZH readers are in no position to comment on boating safety...
Exactrey.
.
Perhaps so, but they were cool enough for Led Zep to write a song about them.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTCYLbFxTpI
Zeppelin never did any songs about lawyer scum.
Ah, it makes me wonder...
"Ah, it makes me wonder..."
this will make you wonder even more...heh
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHCKtPafA0A
I was actually stranded on a desert island once. Just for the afternoon though - boat guy forgot to pick us up. We had a professor too! Professor of anthropology at the U of Tahiti actually. She climbed up a tree and got us some coconuts while our French navy diver guy and his Tahitian gf speared some fish in the lagoon. They also brought some wine along, so we had a pretty good lunch. No Ginger or Maryanne, but we did have a couple of cute Japanese tourists. I got a date with one of them later, so all in all it was a pretty good marooning!
Guess you never saw the episode where it was revealed that the weather report for the fateful day was completely wrong.
Greenspan deserves a Nobel Price in Economics for this magnificent work.
So does Dr. Gideon Gono, a living legend, the greatest Keynesian stimulator of all time. (well, maybe a tie w/ John Law, the guys @ weimar, Rome, etc).
Yet another reason why Greenspan should be in jail, and the world's worst "journalist" his pathetic wifey, should be off the air! (Andrea Mitchell)
Isn't it time for Andrea to change your Depends Al?
I'm sure it will be a best seller wherever central banks are located.
But Andrea Mitchell loves it!
Isn't this how the pay-off scheme works? Bet Goldman orders 20,000 copies and ditto the others.
You are actually suggesting Andrea Mithcell has ever read an entire book?
Fuck that shriveled up old raisin. Assholes can't the cure real people cancer but help these weezels live on to terrorize us with words of infinite bullshit.
I wonder what Bix Weir will say about this book..
Larry, Curley and Schmo, Greenspahn, Bernanke, and now EZ Cum: Yellen
Off topic but fun.
Gas price is dropping hard in the Mid-Atlantic. I paid $2.99/gallon yesterday. Today the lowest post I've seen is 2.89.
Seems like a coon's age since I've seen anything under $3.00
Would be good to hear from someone in the industry about what's going on.
Dayum.......I hope those prices make their way to NC!
This is along the Blue Ridge (Asheville, Eastern Tenn, New River Valley in VA), They have had the mildest fall anyone can remember.
Don't know if there is a connection, or how wide spread it is. Typically South Carolina has the lowest prices in the area due to lower taxes. We are living in interesting times.
It's certainly a more interesting topic than a book by Greenspan on economic forecasting. Talk about the blind leading the blind.
About gas prices falling, I would also be interested in some industry info. Prices are a bit higher in the Pacific Northwest ($3.34 was the lowest I've seen).
This oscillation of prices was predicted by Nicole Foss (Stoneleigh) over at The Automatic Earth. She argued that there would be price swings that would incentivize or dis-incentivize investments in oil production, but because there is a time lag between high economic prices and development of oil wells, prices will oscillate around a general increasing trend driven by decreasing EROEI of existing reserves. A recent example of this is Shell pulling out of Colorado (following Chevron last year), to "focus on other opportunities." i.e. reserves that have a higher EROEI.
I'm not in the industry but observing money flows would indicate that the funds and human effort to speculate up the price of gas/oil, has been recently diverted to two the other activities (1) US Treasury futures, and (2) a spread shorting of the stock market, then flipping on it.
No one EVER sees it coming of course.
I'm assuming, of course, that you've got your sarc on, SDO:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw
"My big fat paycheck from working with John Paulson's hedge fund, I never saw it coming!" --- Alan Greenspan
Now we know what was in the Chairman's briefcase.
A whole lotta blotter ....
I think I will steal a copy so I can urinate on it.
IF the paper is soft enuff, don't waste it and connect the wipe to the words.
COCKSUCKER! That's what they should have called that book, Greenspan the Cocksucker. Just seeing his name elevates my blood pressure... that fucking snake.
holy shit, I ordered a a list of cocksuckers and they sent truckloads of phone books., mostly of DC and new york.
Greenspan MAPPED his friends and gave them the TERRITORY.
Greenspan is the poster boy for someone who illustrates the Peter Principle while trying to spin Korzbyski's quote, "The map is not the territory."
Korzybski's work argued that human knowledge of the world is limited both by the human nervous system and by the structure of language.
It's like Mr. Magoo channeling Ayn Rand while wearing blinders. He's spent most of his life claiming the map is the territory. Greenspan's limitations were far greater than just physiological and linguistic.
While I greatly appreciate anyone quoting Korzybski (loved his book on Semantics), I must disagree with you most respectfully.
Having followed the loser's career (Greenspan, that is) one sees an obvious trajectory early on of connections, connections, connections: fired from Chase by (Prof.) Michael Hudson, today America's greatest economist, along with Michael Perelman, Greenspan easily captures a job with ancient private wealth banksters, Brown Brothers Harriman (it's amazing how many people don't realize this bank still exists?). And then Goldman and the Fed....
H/T and a +1 for such respectful disagreement. Also appreciate the enlightenment re: Greenspan's fortuitous career ascension. Rather than the Peter Principle applying, how about we just say he was placed at his level of incompetence as Fed Chair?
Respectfuly too, you really didn't challenge the OP's point.
This is actually a very timely piece, because I am almost ready to publish my book on the life and career of Alan Greenspan, titled "The Douchebag and The Nozzle".
That's the hole story!!
Oh, I'm a bit giddy after laughing for the last 15 minutes from this this post. Thanks for that. Seriously. Cathartic.
Greenspan, the ultimate bureaucrat, he didn't even read and process his "own" speech while while reciting it to Congress
was the smirkin greenspan jewish?
just askin
So, are you related to Russell Wilson? OOPs, I just looked at your avatar - you can't dance or throw a football, obviously. Sorry Russ, if you happen to be reading, that I would confuse a dip-fuck toad with the wrong family.
Isn't absurdity controlled by hollywood?
When .gov fears that they will have to ratchet it up a few hundred notches the predecessor to the movement is a whole bunch of jackshit movies out of Harvey Weinstein-land.
I can't wait for those west coasters to get their comeuppens.
NO TRIALS! there either.
Just like rome, I suppose. At least we don't have gladiators killing each other only men with ultimate fighting beating the living fuck out of each other. Still ain't better in thousands of years.
I'm getting ready to publish my new book 'Go Fuck Yourselves FED Crooks!'
JUst use a hallmark card. Cheaper to print and carries that little bit of warmth.
If I were a South African diamond miner, working the mines my whole life, say, and I scrounged up enough $ to land on these shores and saw what was going on...I would love it:
"You mean you can print fake money and make everything, just, go UP, FOR NO REASON? Just make up money, and then drive up something I own, just cuz you can make up MONEY!?!
I LOVE THIS COUNTRY!
of course, within 2-3 months I'd realize what a shallow con game it all is, and immediately catch the first boat back to Zimbabwe
Like Gilligan writing a book on navigation.
(& Grand Tetons beat me to it)
It's 'creating a buzz' on Wall st.. Can you feel it?
with a special forward by Janice Yellen, who foresaw the housing bubble, the mortgage crisis, and the financial crisis.
I'm buying his book so I can take a shit on it and send it back to him.
please!... put a picture of his silly briefcase on it like cnbs did back in the day! giggle giggle
while a nation dies...
It would be comical if the entire world did not have to suffer the consequences of the Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen bubble/bust policies. Their formula of super easy money has led to nothing but tears, yet they continue to take no blame and fail to predict the obvious consequences.
That a book like this is allowed to even be published as we build the third bubble of this idiotic idealogical regime makes me sick.
I hope he doesn't sell one fucking book. This guy should tie a 300 lb weight around his neck and throw himself into the sea. God what a PIECE OF SHIT!!!!
It should be as enlightening as a negotiating book penned by John Boehner
Perhaps the only thing worse is LISTENING to him dissemble...
http://www.npr.org/2013/10/18/235488594/greenspan-i-probably-could-have-...
On second thought, there are lots of things worse...and I think we're living them right now.
If I had any power, I would use every ounce of it to ensure that this putrid swill of an "Amerikan", lost money, time, and the love and respect of every member of his family by fomenting this shit brick of a book upon a doe eyed sheep nation.
Alas, I do not, and he will pocket a mill or so, and go down in history as a decent economist in our times.
LIke sarah palin, morons stood in line for her book signing in a nearby town. She sees russia from her house, and I see shit on paper with hers and greenfucks book.
I ain't flushing it no more. I will layer it in a neat pile and call it my greenspan book, and then return it.
I hope he is recommending to go long stocks.
Its just another in your face, 'STFU, now what are you going to do about it?' release of another attempt to rewrite history and deny responsibility for the fiasco he created under his watch..
Very often, these disastrous books are actually filled with the correct thoughts and ideas - the infuriating part is that the author never implemented or carried through on his own ideas while he was in charge - and rarely speaks out against the current ideas of others even though they are not working and they are against the ideas in his book.
I'd like to stuff every fucking page of his shit book down his withered gullet.
Save some for his wife that Crack Investigative "Journalist" Andrea Mitchell
Maybe if enough people show up at his book signing they can lynch the asshole.
Theater of the Absurd Squared
Maybe we can get Andrea Mitchell to do a "Investigative Interview" with Alan,
Maybe shot as they are waited on by servants while eating in their dinning room... Maybe having the Geitner's and Paulson's over at the same time.
Just for that cozy down home effect.
This is an Onion article?! Right?!
He should write a tome entitled 'Waiting for the Guillotine: How I Helped Steal Everything in the World.'
HE REALLY DOES LOOK LIKE MR. MAGOO!
I will read it, once I'm done with "How I Invented the Internet and Electricity" by Al Gore.
this title was already taken by a french autor Michel Houellebecq
http://tombcn.com/2012/08/26/review-the-map-and-the-territory-by-michel-...
He stole the title? Shocking.....no wait, that's what this guy was all about - theft!
sir, How DARE you. Dr. Greenspan is an American. His worth is superior and hence any title he wants he gets. As far as we should be concerned he should have named it The Magna Carta
The phrase comes from brilliant lunatic Korzybski:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Korzybski
He'd be right at home around here.
Page 1
?
The end.
You mean he actually says things people can understand?
I wonder if he will do a joint promotion tour with Rielle Hunter.
" Greenspan's new book "The Map and the Territory" is about as credible as art history by Mr. Magoo; as it pretends to tackle the subject of forecasting while saying next to nothing about the author’s historic failure to reduce the risks leading to the crisis, which he calls "almost universally unanticipated." "
It wasn't a historical failure to reduce risks leading to the crash. It was a success, as that is what Greenspan sought. Greenspan took lending standards to ZERO. The purpose was to increase risk. Greenspan was very successful in increasing risk. You don't create a housing bubble by being risk averse.
Back in the 1960's Greenspan wrote that FED policy lead into the Great Depression. Greenspan DOUBLED down on that policy. It was not at all unanticipated, it was guaranteed to happen, by Greenspan's own writing.
Chuck Prince of Citi said we have to keep dancing while the music is playing. He knew the music was going to end. It was anticipated.
He even stole the title from the brilliant Michel Houellebecq's 2010 award-winning novel.
What a c^nt.
Jesus Christ save us from these bullshitting bastards; how can a guy get so far down the tracks and still be spurting this tripe? When will humanity finally converge on the rule of thumb - if it sounds like its talking shite, its talking shite.
Apparently Al read it already......
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/al-gore-carbon-bubble-going-...
Greenspan's new book "The Map and the Territory"
should have called it "ctrl-P <enter>" instead
I am now headed over to Amazon to shit all over Greenspan's shit book in their review section.
I'd like to launch a FundAnything campaign: Proceeds go to Vernon, a local homeless man suffering a bit of a "set back" due to Greenspan's brilliances.
Upon immediate release and hot of the press, Vernon sullies each page of The Map and The Territory with vile excrement and mails it back to the good doc. The last page thoughtfully expressed:
"Thanks again asswipe!"
LONG Guillotines
I happen to think people like Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen know exactly what they are doing. When you can engineer bubbles, and your "bankers" (a polite term for speculators) know how to profit from both the boom and the bust, what's to stop you from doing it over and over again? From the outside it appears these people are clueless. From the inside, well, you can laugh all the way to the bank.
they're parasites who engage in symbiosis with members of the political class. do you think Bernanke would ever say, gee Hank, I'm walking out of here, you're violating BOA shareholder rights, your old firm fucked AIG, and you used strong arm tactics on members of Congress. The only reason I would be an accessory to all these crimes is that will endear me to the next president.
Hold on for a minute Tyler before any more posts about clueless central bankers. I'm still trying to digest yesterday's video from Peter Schiff on how clueless Yellen was about the housing bubble. And we still haven't given Bernank a chance to explain why he missed it too.
Great, I'll read this book right after:
Greenspan's Fraud: How Two Decades of His Policies Have Undermined the Global Economyby Ravi Batra
there are two items of interest that Greenspan opined about in general comments about the economy. one was immigration. AG thought we should open up more immigration in order to find the young workers we needed to fill the jobs we would create, thus keeping SSN and medicare in a virtuous cycle. two was natural gas. he thought we should explore and develop more NG, (and we did, we fracking did) because it is cheap and available, and it would enable us to remain competitive (create those jobs he described in no. 1) how did it work out?
we sent all the jobs to China, a global turn which took place on his watch, and which he said nothing about, but enabled by a real hot money economy. the GOP (his party) blocked avenues to immigration for mexican nationals, but it didn't really matter because the jobs weren't there because they all went to China. As for NG it is still the ugly step sister, carrying the trusseau for Obamas electric car parade.
more jobs, workers paying into SSN, and energy independence, all good things, wrecked mostly by debt expansion and cross border flow of money. so he saw the right way, then promoted policies which endeared him to wall street and the politicians, which also undermined his policies. what do they call that?
I think they call that weakness of character.
titty sprinkles : +100 for that avatar of yours
Thanks. ...gimme!! :D
if he was running for office it would be perfectly clear that this was a way around campaign finance, you print and sell a million copies of a worthless book and your stealth PAC buys them all, and ships them directly to the landfill
I'll buy it and read it cover to cover. Gaining insight on the fed's models will only help as a trader. It helps to know the most powerful forces insights and methods this way you wont be shocked to find that they won't taper utlill yellen gets canned and rates need to be spiked to 25% to try and contain the inflation...driving our economy into the ground. Thats when we really hit the bottom 2016 or so...
Kaiserhoff: I long for a good gas war!!!
He can write until hell freezes over.
His revision isn't going to change his legacy.
I wonder if sales will reflect such inflated bullshit.
This would be like the Professor writing a book on how to make a radio batteries out of coconuts. Oh, wait... he did that.
Never been a fan of burning books, but............
FUCK YOU, GREENSPAN ! ! ! !
This is a cover by Greenspan. He knows he may be prosecuted for his crimes before his death.
I think I am going to buy this book. If Bernie Madoff wrote a book on ethical practices in the financial world, I would totally buy that book, too.
steal the book
sheesh
no way
sheesh
no way
.
better yet, ignore the book.
if you buy the book you are
participating in the insane
pedagogy the beast perpetrates.
aka normal, post modern consumerism;
congratulations, you have succeeded,
become a success.
but once you have purchased said book
be sure not to read a word as it will
make you less capable of appreciating
the truth and reality but more isolated
and deluded per design.
Let's see him standing on a stack of his book and then the stack is kicked out from under him.
If you thought fiat a sham, and wanted to crush it, what would you have done different?
With all due respect, he was probably fading mentally before he started his big moves in 1991, and even if the book is mostly ghost-written today one cannot expect much clarity or truth. In actuality Greenspan carries more responsibility for the path that things have taken than any other featherless biped on the planet. You can call that good or you can call that bad, but don't call me late for breakfast.
sociopath
noun
a person with a personality disorder manifesting itself in extreme antisocial attitudes and behavior and a lack of conscience.
Economics by Mr Magoo.
..."which he calls " almost universally unanticipated""
.... except by the people who were warning about ahead of time and writing in detail about what was likely to happen & why.
Yet were any of those individuals tapped for their expertise?
Of course not. Only those in the ivory tower count in his mind.
What's truly remarkable here is that Greenspan doesn't know he's an idiot.