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It's Dead Out There, But...
Newsflow is weak to non-existent. S&P futures volume is 40% below average for this time of day; and ranges across all asset classes are low. Is this the calm before tomorrow's jobs report storm or the calm before storming even higher... The S&P 500 tested new all-time highs earlier (just after the US open) but is fading back. The Nasdaq and Trannies are outperforming with a notable drift lower in the almighty Russell (as momo names stutter - ahead of NFLX earnings maybe?). Treasury yields are modestly higher; the USD in unchanged (back from higher earlier); and Oil is down 1.4% from Friday's close. Silver is up 1.5% while gold and copper are unchanged. Thera er two things of note: VIX remains divergent from stocks... and credit markets are not happy.
Stocks behaving quietly...
As VIX is well bid ahead of tomorrow' potential angst...
and commodities are diverging...
and credit markets are rather notably not buying what stocks are drinking..
Charts: Bloomberg
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Yields are going slightly higher no? Credit is telling us it's a hot number and we get a monster rally.
Horrible report=moar QE needed=BTFATH
Awesome report=QE working, but moar still needed=BTFATH
In short - BTFATH.
A contrarian would say maybe today is the day the muppets get sluaghtered...either way only time can tell what the future holds...you see its the wild fucking west and its those who are quickest to draw that win.
Sheeple need a morale boost. I expect a BLS sled full of jobs pulled by an entire herd of skittle shitting unicorns and another sled with Yanet Yellen at the reigns throwing out more QE to all the good girls and boys on Wall Street.
it's that eerie quiet just before the massive implosion of this bullshit market.
Notice how quiet all the rats are as they're escaping the ship before it sinks??
What are interest rates on sovereign debt in the west doing these days?
tick fucking tock.
Sure is quiet out there...
Yeah, too quiet.
Think them bond vigilantes are gonna come?
Yup, probably be droppin' on us from that Hindenburg Omen I keep hearin' `bout.
krugman says that bond vigilantes are dead!?!
Krugman should know cause he's secretly a zombie himself.
Watch that retarded turd vanish completely when the SHTFF!
it isn't that mysterious...stocks are simply following the model as highlighted by the Caracas stock market post a couple days ago. the market will inflate full steam into collapse. so pull out now or a year or two from now with 50% gains? I'd say to keep investing with stops..but skynet keeps finding them.
It's slow across the board. Nobody is busy. Will it pick up or just gradually get worse until February? I'm not seeing any indication in any sector to get busier. Government shut down. People realized there is a debt problem and it's getting worse. Maybe consumers and businesses are repositioning for a deeper recession. Who would hire in this environment? For what purpose? Starting a new venture is not a good idea when everyone is going into squirrel mode.
It doesn't matter what bullshit numbers they're reporting tomorrow. There are no (good) jobs out there. Massive layoffs have just to hit the employment numbers. The 99% will be entering a deflationary Depression and the 1% play their silly stock games and pushing GOOG or PCLN into the stratosphere. Out of reach for the vast majority of Americans IF they had any money to gamble.
I think you hit many nails with the same hammer. Great post.
"It doesn't matter what bullshit numbers they're reporting tomorrow."
No, it definitely doesn't. And the only re-positioning that businesses and consumers should be doing is learning how to grow food and build tools and shelters. Doooom and gloooom, sure, but would you rather know "real" FMVs and employment rates, or be able to survive when the JiT supply chain goes *poof* in a mere 72 hours?
It's a zombie VC environment...
Ideas are dying on the vine as capital retreats to covered positions. The engine of growth has officially been turned off by this administrations policies. Some might argue the importance of growth, but it sure affects the job outlook and that affects hope at a core level. It is dead out here...
Re: the 1% play their silly stock games
The top 1% are playing games, but the top 10% are going to benefit too.
Society will eventually evolve into the top 10% and the bottom 90%.
Unless the top 10% voluntarily evens out society, eventually, the sociopaths will lead the 90% and involuntarily even things out.
History shows what always happens tho.
Just to state the incredibly obvious. To have a vibrant market one first needs to have a MARKET... not a computer controlled con game that pretends to be a market. People know the difference and will not participate in the computer controlled Con Game.
well I guess we'll have to get rid of the data entry component then as well and just "make it up as we go along." talk about the ultimate form of crap shooting. I'm sure the margin of error is within the margin of error though.
I bet we have a great number tomorrow. It doesn't matter if it's real or not. Washington could use some good news...stocks ups, bonds up, dollar up. well at least our investments are ok! main street will say.
oh it matters. "like a 155mm round heading straight for your soon to be ex fighting position."
Hmm....well certainly looks like another 'crisis' is needed!
Some pick up in activity is happening there are more trucks on the hywy around here. cars are selling. I think there could be a outlier number coming
Yeah, only because they're buying new cars and stocking up for an escape out of town before the shit starts flying.
Moar trucks! Yayyyyyy I like trucks!
Tomorrow's number doesn't matter one bit. Short the VIX at these levels. As long as the Fed is printing 85 bil a month, any dip will be bought and nothing else matters. I think it's bullshit, but it doesn't matter what I or anyone else, except the Fed, thinks.
Disagree on tomorrows number...... Will be interesting. They throw out a bad one, and they crush Christmas, semi-admit failure, and further inflate the bubble. Throw out a good one and Taper will be back in, and stocks and gold deflate.
My bet is on a good jobs number.......
Gotta really wonder if we are on the brink of bad being bad again as well.......
I am long SPXU since ES 1726ish looking for 1690s that have been such a magnet over the past few months. If this thing gets to 1750 I will be out. Had to take a shot at not even trying to call 'the' top but at least a scalp given this was just at 1640 recently.
other point is that with Oil under a hundred at bargain basement dollar, deflation once again rears its fuggly head....
of course the investing.com chart looks like it might even print a bull engulfing on the ES daily. portends another leg up. unreal.
right on hte edge. this is an indicator I've noticed to be pretty reliable.
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