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Tomorrow's Payroll Print Will Be Great For Stocks No Matter What: Goldman Explains
Remember when data mattered? Well, it doesn't anymore (and hasn't since the advent of central planning in 2009). Just to confirm that here is Goldman's preview of tomorrow's nearly two month delayed, September Non-far payrolls, which will be great no matter what, meaning the Fed remains in charge well into 2014. To wit:
"Any positive number will be discounted because it came before the DC theatrics and if it’s weak it confirms that tapering should be put off longer."
Seriously, since absolutely nothing can possibly be bad news any more, can Bernanke just tell us what the closing print on the S&P for every trading day until the end of 2013 is (when it will usher in the new year at right about 1800) and then for 2014, when assuming 1 SPX tick for every $3.5bn in POMO flows, the S&P should close out that year at 2100. It's not like anyone even pretends there is a discounting mechanism left.
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The fact that Tyler has given up hope is pretty much the most bearish sign around. Prechter deciding to go long Netflix would pretty much put a bow on it.
When the last bears throw in the towel and conclude that long and strong is the obvious play because "they" will never let the market go down, that's when they usually pull out the rug.
I have become convinced it's not about bulls, bears or even a market anymore. 90% of the population will live an existence barely above poverty, but with an iphone. 9% of the population will benefit from the market, which will be up every year. The 1% won't even need the market.
Viable theory, but just think how much profit they could make on another wild roller coaster ride that they control. Another major crash would have the 9% begging for more QE the likes of which TBTF can only dream about today. It's important to keep in mind that there is never enough for these guys. Someone always has a bigger yacht.
I could see a 20% scalping just for fun. if they go for another big one I think they lose control and it would be the end of the casino. People would go to hard cash, gold, those pretzel shaped fake dog shit's spencer's used to sell. They don't want that. Or maybe they do....who knows....
Exactly, this is why the corrections have been so shallow.
They're afraid to lose control of this overinflated and excessively marked up ponzi.
The going-out-of-business sale is going to be spectacular.
All this Bernanke generated paper wealth will evaporate within weeks as everyone rushes for the same exit at the same time.
It's zero gravity until we hit the ground in a fire ball.
Buy puts at open or shortly after open. This market is going down. Goldman Sachs says "Buy", I say "Sell".
No way. The confidence in the con must be maintained. People have been conditioned to 1% pullbacks, and they get freaked out about a 5% pullback. 20% would send them screaming for the hills.
Like gold hills. The kind that the TBTF types have been creating for themselves by shorting said gold with taxpayer money and buying their own positions. And stocks in a few years. It took a while, but people piled back into stocks after the last big crash and TBTF made mountains of wealth riding that train back up the hills. TBTF is too big to fail. They will get bailed out and continue making money on the way down, back up, back down, and so forth. If they do lose control, they already own massive quantities of hard assets and will rule over the burning rubble.
At this point Barry could go on Oprah and blow Reggie on camera and the SPY would go up 10%.
John D. Rockefeller was once asked how much money it took to make a man happy.
"Just a little bit more."
An equally sound quote, though, probably unpopular in "mixed company":
"I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice! And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue! - Goldwater
But it is what it is.
Goldwater wanted to use the bomb on Russia to end the cold war. How would that have worked out? But everything else he believed in was dead on, right?
re: "Goldwater wanted to use the bomb on Russia to end the cold war."
Pretty sure that was LBJ bullshit.
this may just be semantics, but i think you need to move the decimal over a couple spaces. 1 % isnt the people who control all this shit. youre talking about a couple thousand people, 1 % emplies there are a ittle over 3 million people in that category in the US, and i dont buy that. I think maybe a couple thousand. my opinion at least. I think this whole 99 vs 1% is a straw man.
this may just be semantics, but i think you need to move the decimal over a couple spaces. 1 % isnt the people who control all this shit. youre talking about a couple thousand people, 1 % emplies there are a ittle over 3 million people in that category in the US, and i dont buy that. I think maybe a couple thousand. my opinion at least. I think this whole 99 vs 1% is a straw man.
Add govt employees to few 000's of top insiders and you already have 1:99.
I like your thinking, but ...
If you add dotgov employees, you actually have about 10:90. Add the in all but name dotgov employees (nurses, Boeing, Blackwater, Planned Parenthood, PBS, etc.), and it's - what? - 15:85? 20:80? How 'bout the guys providing fire suppression equipment at the NSA's Utah facility? That'll add another few thousand. Or the guys building outhouses (oops, I mean outhouse) in Alaska?
We're heading for a 10-40-50 world.
50% very poor, no hope and very pissed off.
10% very rich, money flowing into their accounts from a myriad of sources.
So what about the bashed up 40%, the middle classes?
They'll be employed by the 10% to help protect them from the pissed off 50%.
Everyone and his/her mother expects and positioned for the year-end rally.
Looks like a good time to pull out the rug?
Watched a foreign TV program yesterday. The woman said "whoever is afraid to miss this wave can still jump in. And instead of risking it all in just one market, you can buy our fund that gives you exposure to Asia, Europe and the US."
As if one can go down without the other two crashing.
Hope that "wave" turns into a deadly "muppet-crushing tsunami."
I can't stand this global bubble craze any more.
I think I'm seeing a pattern: 1) buy on good news, 2) buy on bad news, 3) buy on the rumor, 4) buy on the news.
Yep. everyone now believes that More QE = Higher stock prices,this wasn't the case 1-2 years ago.
This probably means the equation is near to breaking, ie more QE = no more stock price rises. And if that happens then there's a lot of money invested on the more QE = Higher belief that will be looking for bids to sell into.
David Rosenberg has been bullish since summer of 2012. He sees 3% growth next year.
http://stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-359053/
Considering that it is all bull, if the market is near a 52 week high when the feds meet, they may taper a little to avoid "bubble acqussations". If the market has been knocked down a little with the economy in the crapper, the feds are sure to keep printing. Therefore, I think we will see a pullback in the market.
I hear Uruguay is nice this time of year.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/21/uruguay-marijuana-1-per-gram_n_4137179.html
Simon is that you? ;->
Simons not a cracka...
lol...ya know, with a few good men and a common purpose... ;-)
I just feel nausea for the 2 and 20 clients paying for this Squid bullshit ...red or black ?..pick one.
I thought it was red or blue?
As opposed to some inconceivable scenario where the POMO-translated S&P points wouldn't offer the appropriate remedy?
No shit Goldman.
Edit:
Just noticed the part below the quoted points which essentially rendered my comment as utterly pointless in advance, because apparently I can't even make it past the title anymore - Goldman's fault.
The Spanish train conductor talking on his cell comes to mind....
"Seriously, since absolutely nothing can possibly be bad news any more, can Bernanke just tell us what the closing print on the S&P for every trading day until the end of 2013 "
I'm flattered Tyler's using my material. Maybe that's a sign it's time to take the money and run.
Why bother printing the shit? Just tell people that they can use anything that isn't nailed down as money. I brought some rocks I found in the parking lot at WalMart and bought a nice GMO chicken with them. It was 4 average sized rocks. For an Ipod you'll have to drag in a boulder or two.
Come on that's just crazy talk. Everybody knows that an iPod costs one banged up grocery cart with a wobbly wheel.
they were gone so I used a boulder.
Take your empty EBT card. I hear Wallyworld will honor it for unlimited purchases.
I bring my dog in with me and I let her buy her own dogfood now. The hard part is when she has to climb up on the register and take a crap on the scale so the clerk can confirm the sale. Hows the imagry on that one?? Hey, it could happen.
Sir, the crap reader ain't tellin' us how much credit you git for yer dog's crap. So if you wanna let yer dog go pick out some more stuff, I'll hold this here up front 'till you're dun shoppin.
Since when did data matter? Stocks will be up and gold and sillver will be down. That has been as regular as clockwork for many months now. No one even pretends that the US has markets anymore. Goldman can provide the same comment for the next non-farm payroll and the next.
To top it all, all US data is made up for best helping the markets levitate. No one pays any attention to the large revisions that they throw in once in a while. Ponzi is now a euphemism for "US markets."
Bernie Madoff has to be fucking pissed.
Ya no kidding. If his scam woulda been just a bit bigger he would have been TBTF instead of sitting in jail.
short stocks
Yes, sanity has left the building.
Insanity rules.
If the job numbers turn into job letters, the markets will up and then down and then up again.
"... meaning the Fed remains in charge well into 2014"
If the FED is in charge, why can't they taper and raise the FED rate?
If the FED is in charge, why are 46 million on food stamps?
If the FED is in charge, why is real unemployment over 10%?
i dont even get why they announce the jobs numbers anymore?
it means nothing whatsoever,
when the fed is printing billions of dollars per month, the only thing that matters is that. if there are 300,000 jobs added or 3 jobs added, as long as the fed can still print, the market will be green.
its a fucking joke.
today was prob the market crash we thought we were going to get, dow losg a whopping 7 pts, i hope u guys bought that big dip, lol.
A google search for past 24 hours on the term "stocks overvalued" - yields exactly the same story where bears are called "negative nancys" from literally dozens of different "news" outlets - what a coincidence!!
https://www.google.com.au/webhp?hl=en&tab=ii#hl=en&q=%22stocks+overvalued%22&start=10&tbs=qdr:d
It’s the central planners answer to HFT quote stuffing.
Let’s call it “excuse stuffing”.
when all this shit crumbles I dont ant to be under it!
Let's face it! The stock market has become a measurement of government monstrosity, not economic vitality!
Totally impossible for market to go down now
Bullish. Dow 55,000 in sight!
/sarc
When you think of the Obama and the Federal Reserve, think of Zimbabwe.
Zimbabwe's stock index went to 50,000.
As the US dollar crashes price increases accelerate.
Even the most retarded bulls realize the market bubble is about to pop. Remember, at any moment the pomo manipulators can use their cash as collateral for shorting the market. Now that everyone including Tyler is convinced that it can only go up, they will start dumping their long shares and keep selling as they enter the short side. The important thing is that they manipulate the market in both directions to skrew the common investors, albeit they haven't done the dumping side yet this year. Happy Trading
"nearly two month delayed"
You mean two week delayed right?
As to a very strong number being discounted, I hope Goldman has their bids out in the bonds.
Get a job
Nah, nah, nah, nah. nah nah. nah, nah
up is the new down