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Panic Buying Continues
Despite NFLX giving back half its after-hours gains, the NASDAQ is surging to new 13-year highs, the S&P cash crosses 1750 (to new all-time highs), and the Dow Transports explodes higher (to yet another record) for the ninth of the last 10 days. All of this as the USD is monkey-hammered and the EUR surges to 2-year highs... Treasury yields are dropping fast (down 5-7bps across the curve). As we noted last week, US equities have caught up entirely to the Fed balance sheet. Gold (back above its 100DMA) and silver are surging and oil is pressing back up towards $100. The reason for all this exuberance: the jobs number was sufficiently horrible it has moved the tapering consensus to March 2014 of beyond...
Gold has broken above its 100DMA...

Treasury yields are dropping fast...

EURUSD at 2-year highs...

US equities just won't stop...

and this is why...
Perhaps equities will stall here as they have reached their short-term Fed balance sheet fair value... or not...
Charts: Bloomberg
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up is the new down
GOLD Zooming...
BLING...
VIX chart showing either panic call buying or premiums expanding on both long and short sides
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Index/VIX
Anybody have put/call data for today handy?
Rut-roh.. Naz went reddddd..
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/COMP
NFLX 345 puts LOD .05 HOD 15.35. Yikes.
At Filene’s basement, once the fat hog snatches the last gown from the scrawny waif, the sale is over.
Buy everything. Doesn't matter what, Mortimer, just BUY EVERYTHING! Buy! Buy! Bye.
Buy everything, it all goes up! Well....except for NFLX. Never know which trapdoor they're about to pull.
OMG!
I better grab sumting right away...ANYTING...before the price plunges.
Dear howard stern Tourist,
Yeah...ZOOMING!!! When was the last time you saw stocks BE ALLOWED to lose 5%, OR seen precious metals be able to hold ANY gain whatsoever??? They wack gold on tomorrow's open - Got GLD puts?
Dick Fisher said, "No problem, the Fed's GOT this."
The trend is your friend and Faber is still bearish http://hedge.ly/1bRPTG5
Who killed all the Black Swans?
The Chinese smog
CHOG...Tyler's can trademark that. Chinese Halving Oxygen Gas...
Bubbles? We see no bubbles. London real estate, S&P up 10 times earnings growth and counting, etc, etc. All happening when the economy is punk as noted in quarterly reports from most established large global companies.
Of course when it does implode some morning near or further out, everyone will sit aghast exclaiming how none of them saw it coming, no one.
And the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street will take us through the lying once again...as if this market is one thing...one certain thing...it is entirely CONTRIVED. EVERYONE sees it coming. ALL of them.
I seriously believe they planned to pull the rug out long ago, but conditions are preventing it, just like they wanted to launch against Syria and were counting down the minutes until salvos of Tomahawks were launched, yet it was immediately shelved. Something is going on behind the curtain we don't know about, yet. Maybe their computer simulation runs are showing they lose control of it this time? I don't know, but it ain't right, very weird shit afoot.
"They", TPTB are losing control. The string of losses is notable.
failed false flag, Boston
whistleblower-- the traitor Snowden changes everything
Syria attack a bust
rest of world begins serious de-Americanization
congress/Prez lose all remaining credibility in debt ceiling/Ocare fiasco
America/world is now a different place than it was just 6 mos. ago.
Your assumptions presume some kind of dark conspiracy - a secret cabal calling the shots. Occam's Razor is a better explanation - all events are simply reactions to a host of factors. Boston was an amateurish job by two wacko brothers, Snowden's data told us nothing we didn't already suspect, there was never going to be a Syrian invasion (the Prez was unable to keep his mouth shut about "crossing the line"), the world is de-Americanizing in headlines only (the dollar IS the global currency of choice) and though politicians have lost credibility the party ideologues on both sides are not affected and the MSM is busy propping up the administration.
disagree on your point the dollar is a "choice"
By "choice" I mean the most liquid, the most widely accepted (try using Yuans in Puerto Rico) and most available. There is little choice involved since most nations set up mechanisms for the dollar decades ago when the pound fell off the stage.
Your assumptions assume some sort of ensuing idiocy. No rebuttal or amount of debate will change this fact.
You guys can read into it whatever you want. You are seeing my summary as requiring assumptions, I make no assumptions. No conspiracy theories required. The stated failures are just that, failures. Pick one, the bankers, the politicos, the illuminati, the Rockefellers, the Rothschilds, the Democrats, the Republicans, etc. etc. are losing control. It should be obvious.
Maybe, certainly starting to lose control over sovereign debt/gold manipulation. If they kill the dollar it won't matter, but if they want to keep the dollar viable at all, then they can no longer buy the debt and beat down commodities.
I don't consider myself part of a criminal syndicate. Just someone who watched too many cartoons as a kid.
I felt S&P 1800 last week by EOM. I feel it even moar after this employment situation report.
Now for the daily exponential pumping to infinity and beyond...because the old treading water just won't cut it anymore. Just wait until a +20 S&P day is considered a bummer day.
Looks like POMO finished early today.
Yellen's Stealth Taper program initiated
i rarely post anymore. this market is more insane than 1999. nothing to say until this mania ends.
Oh yea, for me now this is just watching some theater of the bizarre....far weirder than wandering thru a circus freakshow.
I tought I saw Janet Yellen at the Freakshow in Venice Beach. She's the Bearded Lady right?
As someone who wasn't involved in the markets in the late 90s during that bubble, I wish guys like you who were involved would comment more on what is going on now.
How does what's going on now compare to that period, if at all?
In 1999...you could see the end to the madness...but it was not easy to time. I sold out my long position in November 1999 and watched the markets take off for the next 4 months. I felt like an idiot for 4 months.
This time is different. It really is. All of these gains are Fed driven and I sold off my long positions last year. I feel stupid! Hopefully, not for long.
Fundamentals do not matter now....that is the biggest difference.
The Fed is the market. It's buying the US debt and stocks (through it's banks).
When the Fed is the market and promotes more government spending and debt it's trapped in a corner with no way out.
It has promoted the government to push ever more people on welfare/government aid out of productive endeavors. A self-reinforcing cycle of ever more dependency and debt. While destroying wealth on the lower end.
I appreciate the reply(and the replies below).
Considering this is all Fed driven, then in your opinion, what can/will stop this mania besides a taper and a total end of QE?
And if there is no taper, and instead possible increases in QE, is this market essentially 1920-1921 Weimar?
What fundamentals ? Technology companies with a criminal business model making their banking enablers envious ?
The big scams where in place back then and are still
making profits on things like fake operating systems
and monopolies and criminal licensing policies thereof.
It`s all hanging by a thread, the USA brand which clear
of the three letter agency cobwebs is toast.
People had jobs, gas was $1.25 a gallon. You could buy a weeks worth of groceries for $80. A 2000sq ft home in a good Boston suburb were still under $200k.
Windows 98 was awesome. Apple was close to going out of business.
I would say the exuberance in internet stocks was crazier, but now absolutely everything is crazy. There isn't a single sector that isn't overvalued.
the 90's was a sector gone bonkers, this is global, structural, fundamental and fucking scary
happiness and contentment seems still in short supply actually. not recommending going long on that either but hey "don't ever look a gift horse in the mouth." I would avoid the options market entirely. Risk is a piece of cake to quantify...keep stacking (even if we're on the verge of a statistically significant correction of say 40% or more) but keep a nice "income hoard" too. hiring will commence at some point here (job growth is huge in Texas and North Dakota...it's only a matter of time before you get paid just to be there) ...we'll see about the rest of "The Thing" (or is it "The Blob"?....or maybe "It came from Outer Space!...or how about Piggggggggs In Spaaaaaaaaaaaaace!"? meh, you all get the deal now.
The main difference is that many of the pre 2000 ipos had fundamental long term value. This time around none of them do. There will be no recovery ever from the next crash. That's why they are so desperate to keep it artificially propped up.
There will be no recovery ever from the next crash. That's why they are so desperate to keep it artificially propped up.
Best answer to Buzzsaw...IMO.
The more the Fed pushes the craziness the bigger the fall and reset. The PhDs should know the power of exponents and what will happen. They keep hoping for growth while destroying it through supporting more debt and a bigger, ever expanding, government. This includes entitlements.
when falling off a cliff all you can do is clutch at the air, this is classic failing ponzi machinations, like when you're drowning and the lungs are filling full of water this is the long drawn out convulsive phase
>> There will be no recovery ever from the next crash.
I agree. Very well said. Every once in a while I need a good bucket of cold water splashed in my face to steel me to events to come. That comment worked. Now I'm going back out to get started planting my fall onions.
define "it" relative to artificiality. Equities? Debt? The State of Illinois? I have a big imagination now when it comes to the word "it."
Actually it's insane only with respect to our debt and economic recovery. PE ratios are well within range, sales are not that bad considering the few people actually working, automation has raised productivity higher than ever, efficiency is increasing at each step of the production cycle. It's not the big industrials that are doing good but a lot of the small and mid-size firms. Why not go full in, take a profit, buy hard goods (repeat previous steps)?
Who dafaq is buying UST's?!? China ain't.
WHO is dumping US DOLLAR?;)
I think they taught this is in Econ 101......or was it Voodoo Econ?
It has to either be other central banks or Fed member banks to keep the interest rates exploding to the upside. They know when the USTs are not being bought for the current rates it's game over.
The game can get quite ridiculous when the bubble blows. The Fed is creating so many imbalances it's incredible. And there is no way out for them.
No wonder Bernanke is leaving.
I'll give you a hint...The buyer starts with a 'B" and ends with an 'ernank'.
What we are witnessing is the dollar falling in style. S&P up, gold largely contained, and oil flat. Thousands of underperforming money managers and retail investors are crying out in the night, because they are missing the rally. We haven't seen anything yet.
The reversals in March of 2000 were jaw dropping when they happened....like NFLX today.
http://www.naaim.org/news/naaim-survey-of-manager-sentiment/
We just need to see how many more managers and retail want to enter the circus.
That last chart is perfect; the markets are the FED, and the FED are the markets.
My children and unborn grandchildren are paying for this show; I want more entertainment value.
And no, that little tart Kelly on CNBC with her dome-head hairspray hairdo won't cut it.
Ok what happened to NFLX? That's the ugliest candle I've seen in a long time.
Reed Hastings and Co. taking profits; there are islands to buy.
Reed owes Bernanke big time. Each day of Hanuka, Ben is going to get progressively younger Asian sex slaves. He might even get a newborn for a blood sacrifice.
I wonder if Yellen is into young Asian girls or will just stick with the boys?
The reversals in March of 2000 were jaw dropping when they happened....like NFLX today.
(Posted this to wrong comment above)
How many got caught in NFLX last night. What a broken market.
I think my brother bought it hand over fist, he's always going on about NFLX, I bet he went all-in.
brilliant...he must know there is infinite demand for long 200 p/e stawks !
I am starting to think supply and demand is all there is. You can forget fundamental analasys.
Now I know how they felt in Zimbabwe when Finance Minister Gono.... started trucking in Zimbo dollars from the North Korean built paper making factory.
Ain't it grand ?
Pretty soon the Fed will need a fleet of those gold mine trucks with the 2 story tall tires to haul around their fake printed up money.
Clowns, the trouble with this analysis is that nothing of the sort is going on. There is still a tremendous demand globally for the dollar. Inflation is not out of control (although higher) and hyperinflation requires that folks expect a dramatic drop in the value of the currency. That they don't is proof that end times are not as near as manypredict. For years I've been reading the Zimbabwe event will occur next week/ month/year/decade) LOL - Zimbabwe is now using the US dollar.
A case of follow the herd, swallow the word.
I feel like buying a short position right now :)
Would you like the Bernank to ream you with or without vaseline
Is that after they SWAT team you and send you to Gitmo if you sell an equity or short anything?
LOL, the Fed is trapped by exponents. These PhDs have to realize this. Make the exponents bigger will make for an interesting ending for them.
"Perhaps equities will stall here as they have reached their short-term Fed balance sheet fair value... or not..."
nailed it.
The "King Dollar' trade is sensing fear of collapse.
What did I miss? I went to pick up coffee and were down 10 on the S&P...Did Waddell & Reed sell a contract? This market is not equipped whatsoever for any actual selling of volume.
"Cowboys" shorting Gold at 1270 -1250 must be in a serious trouble now:
September Nonfarm Payrolls Huge Miss - Gold Spikes Up, Data Leaked Again
We have September Nonfarm Payrolls with the Huge Miss and Gold Spikes Up immediately. Data was leaked yearly again with Gold printing: +$5 at 8.28 and +$18 at 8.33 "Cowboys" shorting the Gold market, according to Eric Sprott, must be in a serious trouble now. The yearly trade on October 15th has amounted to 640 million and Gold was Sold at 1270 - 1250 levels. Now with CFTC out of hibernation can we expect at least some kind of investigation? There are more and more calls about the US Dollar loosing its Reserve Currency of Choice status now. Default was avoided, but the damage is done.
All FIAT currencies are based on trust. The geopolitical shift is making its way to mass media and we are witnessing the groundbreaking developments in the Gold market. Nobody can manipulate it all the time and China will be busy writing "Thank You Cards" to the FED and related Cartel members at LBMA and BIS, buying all the physical Gold available for Delivery at this levels. We can forget about the Taper until mid 2014 now and Janet Yellen will be following the new FED's playbook written by Michael Woodford. Peter Schiff has dissected for this situation very well. http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/september-nonfarm-payrolls-huge-miss.html#
FUCK YOU VERIZON
If the US Governmnet wants to debunk conspiracy theories that the US Dollar is a "pyramid scheme" -
Then why don't they start by removing the illustration of a pyramid scheme from the dollar ?
WTI hammered in past 15 minutes.....SOMEONE attempting to hide DOLLAR collapse!!:)
GAME ON......THE CHAIRS ARE SET.....THE MUSIC IS PLAYING....and the DJ's ARM is beginning to TWITCH and FLINCH!!!
WTI should be heading a lot lower in the days to follow.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/spot-wti-oil-daily-falls-sharply-techni...
QE $ 1 trillion a month to buy stox; next, brought to you by the FED...
the Dollar, refuge in the Scandi currencies, hard money...lol. dollar devaluation 20% coming to you.
Hey Tyler - when does Goldman begin offering its partners the option of getting 30% of their monthly check in Renimbi ?
Held offshore of course......
The reason i'm Taper Proof, is because taper is never going to happen until the currency gets devalued 30% overnight
I've said that since the beginning of QE. Government intervention once stimulated markets because it was so rare but now it's the norm for both good and bad times and has little (or negative) effect. The FED is not going to stop tapering nor will it raise interest rates for one simply reason - interest on the debt would explode. Of course, they could always monetize the interest rate payments by pulling an Illinois - selling bonds to pay the interest on the current bonds.
Employment is a lagging indicator, doesnt everyone know this by now? Taper is the fashionable eco-term.
Hmmm, Kemosabe.
I show NFLX at 340, down about 50 points from the open today, as of 11:22 EST.
I wonder how the MSM will spin that move.
...they will barely mention it or come up with a bogus late in the day downgrade.
SHOW WIDOWMAKER A REAL FUCKING MARKET!
END THE BULLSHIT SHOW!!
When the US Dollar tips the brink, to be replaced as the World Currency Reserve Status....Guaranteed, WW3 Will break out on whatever the US chooses as the flavour of the moment, False Flag/Black Swan event.
Why pick individual stocks that can be easily dumped as soon as the "right people" have taken their profits? We're in a no limit game of pumping the markets until February, and the manipulators will go spastic as long as the general direction is up. I am NOT playing the casino any more, but if I were, I'd bet on the index instead of individual stocks.
Likelihood of record index highs in the major markets is pretty good this month and next. Caveat: At the same time, likelihood of market collapse triggered by at least a dozen uncontrolled implosions in different sectors, (currency, insurance, student/mortgage loans, energy, Sovereign debt default in the EU, etc) is also considerable.
I expect the Fed will start jawing about "taper" again to cool things down fairly soon, that way they anticipate the surface tension of the market bubble and deflate it before it pops (they hope). Iterate until the old farts escape justice by dying of natural causes and we're all growing vegetables to survive. I reckon that's their end game - to kick the can long enough to enjoy the power and wealth for themselves and their chums before they die.
Investors are grabbing as much gold as they afford looks like...Hard Assets....while the dollar Baggers worry more every day.
Bernanke destroyed the market.
The only panic buying there should be is into Gold and Put options. This economy is a disaster!
OK wait a second. I'm confused by the comments here. Some of you are saying gold is being bought hand over fist thus explaining gold's move upwards after the fake and grossly misleading job report circus. But markets are up too - on the exuberance that taper is off. So shouldn't gold and market move in opposite directions? If gold is a safe haven then supposedly it should be jumping when the market is diving and vice versa. What's with the simultaneous upward movement of equities and PMs? Newbie no follow. Need ZH help.!!
It's called Dollar destruction (no taper)....better known by the euphemism, inflation.