This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Scotiabank Asks The Most Important Question
Via Guy Haselmann of Scotiabank,
QE - Speculative Market Fuel
· A weak economic report lifted an overbought equity market to even-loftier historic highs. Investors and traders have become programmed to believe that QE (rather than economic growth) is enough to launch asset prices ever-higher. At the moment, there is little to refute this view. “Melt-up” mentality is back. However, shouldn’t a sluggish economy with slow job creation make investors question whether enough economic activity will be generated to justify prices? Unless the economy improves materially, then today’s move is just another example of speculative excesses caused by QE.
“Adequate Progress” – Undefined
· The key to market direction appears to be driven by assessing the timing of any changes to Fed action. The longer QE lasts the higher prices are expected to be pushed, thus the basis for today’s rally. However, reacting so robotically may not be so straightforward. After all, the FOMC communication has not been that helpful. This is because they say that asset purchases are “dependent on the state of the economy” and “making adequate progress”, yet they never define what “adequate” means.
Unemployment Rate Creeping Toward the 7% Threshold
· The FOMC initially presented “thresholds”, saying QE would end when the unemployment rate (UR) hit 7.0%, but the rate has already hit 7.2%. How will the markets react if the rate falls to 7.0% with the next employment report two weeks from Friday - and QE has not yet ended (let alone begun)? Would the Fed lose credibility if this occurs? Would it spook markets who are now expecting QE to continue well into 2014?
Fed Policy Based on an Unstable Indicator
· The Fed has problematically tied their policy to an inherently unstable and unpredictable economic indicator (i.e., the unemployment rate). This guidance may need to change as they develop a (sorely-needed) QE withdrawal strategy. Formulating and communicating such a strategy would be helpful to markets as well as to the FOMC who would benefit from getting all members on the same page.
FOMC Press Conferences
· A detailed or updated QE exit strategy could be presented at the October 30th FOMC meeting. The stakes are rising, so announcing that a press conference will occur at every meeting is likely.
· “I live on a one-way street that is also a dead end. I’m not sure how I got there.” –Steven Wright
»
- 10346 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
See your Fed Board Member for market erections lasting more than four POMO sessions.
"You're Richer then you think................just BTFATH!!!!!!!!"
Carney, I know that even YOU don't BTFATH, but BTFD. Cause even when the "Company" issues Gratis stock-options to you, you can get more fiat for other stocks.
And given that the "Company" issues you Gratis stock-options, what else are you gonna do to avoid a Taxable Gain? You buy other stocks -- as an Exchange In Kind.
Don't fight the fed. This 100 year old institution has a mandate to destroy America. Join them to profit from it. Where you will use the ill-gotten gains after economic destruction is a question for another day.
When faced with a pyramid scheme, people react in two different ways.
One type of person reacts in horror and shuns the scheme. The other type of person tries to join the cheme and steal from the next round of suckers.
Which person will come out ahead depends on when it all collapses. You don't want to be the last to join a pyramid scheme, yet in this pyramid society if you sit on the sidelines you won't make money either.
Scotia = greek for Darkness
that being said, Yellen when she does announce Taper also adjusts the unemployment rate lower
there, problem solved
Your richer than you Think...... Think again !
This just might be the problem, It certainly gave me Nightmares to see it in the flesh
http://www.abc.net.au/foreign/content/2013/s3874510.htm
Send it to some of the 1% of the wealthy. So they know we know where they live.
The way to end this is to end the Saudi faggots, who keep enabling the petrodollar and FEDs reckless monetizing.
"shouldn’t a sluggish economy with slow job creation make investors question whether enough economic activity will be generated to justify prices?"
No. Now stop stealing my Stephen Wright quotes.
Isn't Scotiabank broke?
Oh right. They are all broke.
Never mind, Carry on.
Yup.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/35k-tax-bill-for-widowed-dad-from-scotiabank-s-mistakes-1.2126135
They should just admit that God tells them what to do, via his servant GS
Whats the difference between God ,and GS ?
God doesn't think he is Loyd Blankfein.
We are in late innings now. Stay the hell out of this market. If you must, then daytrade and never hold overnight unless you really know what you are doing.
Remember folks, the HFT robots were turned down last week. I guess they were reprogramming them for a reversal.
Drop That Honey Beat - Must be The Honey
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drC2fA86Nc4 (0:31)
Office Remix - Must Be The Honey
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5im1GiDbR3Q (0:31)
shouldn’t a sluggish economy with slow job creation make investors question whether enough economic activity will be generated to justify prices?
Not in a market riddled with fraud and deception. This is perfectly normal!
The cop cars in town changed from the standard Dodge cruisers to anything GM had - Malibu/Blazer/Tahoe..Anyway they can.
Little late to the party aren't you Scotiabank? The market hasn't had a damn thing to with the economy for the past five years and everything to do with the fed providing excess liquidity.
"A detailed or updated QE exit strategy could be presented at the October 30th FOMC meeting."
Yeah, right, and I'm going to win the lottery this Saturday......without buying a ticket.
The mere mention of the T word will freeze global banking in a matter of minutes.
Where has this Guy been since 2000...?? This has not been a 'speculative market' since the MarketMaker machines took charge. Programs do not allow for speculation.
A couple of points if I may. First, I get a kick out the fact that when revealing what drives the 'market' you boomer doomers (and the ultimate doomer douche, akak) always act like it's a revelation. Second, the lay of the land is really coming together for me and I'll give you a hint:
The world doesn't end BUT gold will be reintroduced into the currency equation next year! I have had my eyes opened here and have read everything available and while I don't like the doomers (or boomers) outlook I 'get it' -- the crooks will be rounded up.
Believe in America and believe that when it does get dark that you are there to stand up and fight! The awakening has begun.
Third, I called for new highs and we gotem :)
for you chart buffs, we just hit the 1,750 - 1,770 Intermediate Wave 3 target. Don't know when or where but 15% correction coming this quarter. THEN the blowoff top!!!
maybe I just became a gold bug??? or not??? All I know is that the gigantic squid has now been surrounded. It is a world effort!!! Stay tuned as the fight has only begun.
I sold half my darling DDD today, started getting short ES, and long NEM. ya ya ya physss... got some already so actually thinking about a huge crate of silver coins -- thoughts?
Overall food-for-thought: so many of you here are on the right trail but you don't fully understand how long these things take. Again, boomer doomer logic only clouds your brain.
P.S. Marc Faber, Peter schiff, Bill fleckenstein, Marc Faber, Phoenix Capital, akak = douche bags
peace
Re silver: Even the USGS says it will be extinct (or uneconomical to mine at anywhere near current prices) by 2020. So I view it as insurance against monetary irresponsibility with a lottery ticket aspect if a combination of industrial and monetary demand suddenly run up against a really limited supply. Production vs gold is around 9:1, price is 60:1 (or I suppose 1:60 to be consistent) - that's a lot of room for normalization, but the discrepancy, coupled with the size of the market, and the known fact that the institutions that control the market and set the price are the worst sort of lying, cheating parasitic cocksuckers known to man makes me think they're managing the price for a reason, and have an exit strategy in mind that they will benefit from in a very big way.
Thanks Al. Central Banks don't use silver as a reserve so I don't know what the gold/ silver ratio mesns?
I wanted to know if my logic flows through correctly and to actually have silver coins as usable money? A friend said if the shit really hits the fan that actual $100 bills will be golden! He said silver coins are useful (gold gets you shot).
Bitcoin is moronic, no?
I just don't know about silver.My gut tells me ,because of its industrial demand,
that it will never be a monetary metal again,just a true commodity.The modern
day equivalent to copper in the last depression.I hold some just in case,
but I am not expecting a ginormous revaluation like gold when SHTF.
I think we need reading of the "Keynesian" prayer for all the non-believers.
Let us pray...
We must borrow more money,
To stimulate demand,
So that jobs are created,
And prosperity ensues,
Then we pay off our loans.
(unless there's not enough prosperty, in which case, repeat from the top).
May perpetual "Keynesian" prosperity continue forever-n-ever, in his holy bearded name, Amen
I'm kinda wondering if China isn't unloading some $'s and simutaneously buying treasuries. That was a big drop in the dollar vs the rise in treasury prices. Normally with bond inflows like that you see better dollar stability. (foreign currencies need to be converted to dollars, to buy treasuries).
The PBOC is struggling with inflation(usd inflows) so maybe they want the yuan a little higher to help with internal consumption costs. They also see the U.S. economy slowing and realize the export gravy train is slowing, and want to keep demand going internally with a stronger yuan.
Haselmann is either an idiot or just pretending to be an idiot. Can't decide which.
You're right, he doesn't appear able to decide.
the age of exorbitant privilege for the Oligarchs and serfdom for all/
What is new is that amongst the serfs is now included the first world middle class. Now that was not in the Constitution. And there lies the rub as its the end of democracy and nation state.
All empires considered the indigenous in their colonies as slaves. The US as Europe were no exceptions. In fact they were more brutal than the barbarians of old.
But to include your own flesh and blood in that category is a regression to feudal times when nation states were still unborn. Awesome regression.
What the Fed meant to say was that the taper would start when we hit 7.0% year over year EMPLOYMENT growth rates, not 7.0% Unemployment.
And we are currently at 1.66% year over year employment growth rates, so we are gonna be safe for a long, long, long tme.
As the parasite sucks the last bit of wealth from each host. Switch currency reserve status & start the whole process over.
B-I-N-G-O
The House of Rothschild, ie Isreal, is really what should be brought down. I digress...
My guess is that they will now start feeding us big enough fish to feel justice (watch for the phrase, "rule of law").
Obama fucked up The War (even though it was the awakening) in their minds so I still think he gets a bullet for that. Hmmmm, Senior Joo Bankers retiring is a press headline I'm starting to see, get the picture ;)
Just hook the obamacare web site up to the stock market it will correct it imeadiately.
Shouldn't investors? What investors....a monkey can do this....put money in and big fat yellen bannana come out, put money in.....
Where was Haselmann on QE1 ? Oh yeh thats right the Fed had to buy Scotiabanks rotting , stinking pile of MBS shiite.
I gues this is the point where we learn that the banks have finished selling all of their bad loans to the US taxpayer.
Oh wait a minute, the Fed is a private organization which is why they cannot be audited by Congress. It's the Federal Reserve's debt NOT the US taxpayers.
Let's tell the Chinese that they come get them for an interview.
"How will the markets react if the rate falls to 7.0% with the next employment report two weeks from Friday - and QE has not yet ended (let alone begun)? " [sic]
(let alone begun)?
It is now October 22, 2013 and the Fed balance sheet expansion has definitely already begun!
how is this an important question? They made up this rule for no reason & can make another one up without explanation just as easily.