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Spot The Odd One Out

Tyler Durden's picture


All of these things are not like the other... except one!


In all the following charts, the green line is the S&P 500...


Crude Oil is diverging...


High Yield Credit is diverging...


US Macro Fundamentals are diverging...


10Y Yields are diverging...


The USD is diverging...


Earnings expectations are diverging...

and Current earnings are diverging...


Current US GDP is diverging...


US GDP expectations are diverging...


and Dr. Copper is diverging...


But... there is one "asset" that is not diverging from the S&P 500...


Still think its "all about the fundamentals"...?



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Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:00 | 4079656 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

it's all about the coming devaluation

and we look forward the day when Obama with Yellen and Lew flanking him explains to the sheep why this is a good thing

trust me that day is coming and coming sooner than most think

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:00 | 4079667 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Bernanke's 'Virtuous Circle' = A bet 'all on' equity "markets"

When (not if) equity markets crash, it's game over. The insiders will have already cashed out and converted their fiat gains into hard, real, truly valuable assets.

Ben Bernanke has now blown the third, and BY FAR the largest (and multi asset class) bubble since 1998.

There will future economic textbooks & studies dedicated to the complete failure that is Ben Bernanke's 'Virtuous Circle' monetary policy lunacy.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:03 | 4079671 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture




"All right, we're gonna be displacing and falling back like crazy sons of bitches. So you got to be Johnny on the spot with the ammo, or we're dead."




Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:04 | 4079687 Dealer
Dealer's picture

HH, you're a funny dude.  I always appreciate your comments.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:20 | 4079740 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

We are becoming Zimbabwe.

"Prices go up because the value of the Fiat paper money is falling as more and more is created....... In Zimbabwe stores did not even have goods on the shelves, people were hungry, there was no water, no electricity, no public transportation, gas was sold on the black market and large quantities of paper money confiscated...and yet the Stock market kept soaring..."

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:23 | 4079749 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



"It may be necessary to use methods other than constitutional ones."
-Robert Mugabe

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:24 | 4079754 flacon
flacon's picture

"The Constitution is just a piece of paper" ~ widely attributed to Baraq Obama.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:36 | 4079771 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



“We still suffer from not having a Constitution that guarantees its citizens economic rights .”

-Barack Obama

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:46 | 4079808 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture



i thought the spx diverged 5 years ago and 13 years ago

but i guess im a stupid mother fucker

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:50 | 4079815 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Fedementally it is about the Funding, er, fundamentally it is about the Fed, er Fed Funding er..


Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:54 | 4079831 fourchan
fourchan's picture
dont be fooled. 
this situation is the system called the fed reserve. 
the system is working perfectly. 
the system has taken 100 years to bring the only uncontrolled nation to its knees. 

the system is, if you haven't seen it yet. 

to enslave a free people to debt with paper created out of thin air, 
and capture all productive assets through boom and bust cycles the system creates.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:23 | 4079919 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

"...economic rights."...that's another way of saying "...having access to other people's (i.e., YOUR money).

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:51 | 4079818 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

That was attributed to GW Bush but Obama has carried through nicely.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:18 | 4079899 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

I junked ya for paraphrasing, not knowing the correct author and perpetuating what is seemingly an urban legend to begin with.

Supposedly GW Bush said, "I don't give a god damn, I'm the President and the Commander-in-Chief. Do it my way. Stop throwing the Constitution in my face, it's just a god damn piece of paper!" ... but good luck finding a video - or a witness who actually heard it.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:37 | 4079794 swedish etrade baby
swedish etrade baby's picture

Is that razorblades on his shirt?

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:26 | 4079929 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Only 2 people I can think of who'd down vote this post. Barry and Vallery.

If I had a father, he'd look like Robert Mugabe   Barry Zero

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:39 | 4079969 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Say what you will about Mugabe's economic policies, but you have to admit, the man is one snappy dresser! 

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 14:12 | 4080122 bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

Is that a Washington Redskins cap he's sportin'.... ?


Tue, 10/22/2013 - 14:20 | 4080162 Agent P
Agent P's picture

I could scroll back up and look...or I could stay right here and look at your avatar...hmmm

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 15:34 | 4080447 I woke up
I woke up's picture

Are you telling us everything?  Oh, and we're also out of coffee

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:23 | 4079750 flacon
flacon's picture

Should also have the price of COMEX gold diverging. 

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:05 | 4079690 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Time to replace The Bernank with Mrs. Debtfire?

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:06 | 4079692 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

My guess is that many people have finally "rebalanced" their 401ks to not miss another "kick the can" rally.  Basically saying "fuck it".  TPTB have been pulling the rug out for decades folks, but only once it is profitable for them and all the TBTF banks have "come clean" and can't be prosecuted (notice the JPM "settlements").  They know that there really isn't anything that the sheeple can do anyway.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:26 | 4079760 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

Not sure whether the rug will get pulled out or 401k's will be forced into the patriotic 'investment' in O-bonds.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 14:07 | 4080095 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

The problem with America's 401k program is that it is constrained by the choices the Employer made, i.e. which financial firm to use and what palette of investment choices are present with that firm.  The choices are always much smaller than those in an IRA or Roth IRA.  None give you the choice of holding PM bullion.  Only Paper_Gold (gold ETFs), if that.  Given this constraint, we may be willing to expose the Employer's Contribution (to our 401k) to systemic risk in these limited choices, but we are also "stuck" with paper assets in IRAs.  And we can't roll over the 401k into an IRA until we leave the company.

In some countries, you get more flexibility.  In Canada, for example, the 401k equivalent is the RSP (Registered Savings Plan).  It is NOT tied to your employer's choices.  Rather, YOU chose which institution to put this year's RSP contributions with.  They are only the Administrator, but you have universe of Mutual Funds to pick from.  Although they strongly encourage you to diversify, the Foreign Content is limited to X percent.  Don't know the current value, but it used to be around 20% of max Foreign (non-Canadian) content.

The only risk mitigation we have in IRAs is to keep liquid paper assets (USTs, Cash), if we don't like the other paper assets (stocks, bonds, MFs).  I'm sure you know this, but am sharing FBO (for benefit of) other readers.

What is a pity is that schools and Financial Planners/Advisers no longer teach about the wealth pyramid or overall asset allocation:  1/3 Real Estate, 1/3 PM+Cash, 1/3 Stocks+Bonds.  These days they only promote/flog the latter:  paper assets.  Paper assets, for which they industry lives & thrives via the ecosystem of tax-deductible Fees, Commissions, Bonuses, kickbacks, events, parties, treats & junkets.

Even here on ZH we don't talk about the "Allocation by Thirds" much.  Rather, TDs seem to polarize it into a bipolar "Paper vs PM/Bullion" battle.  Maybe that's where other sites (advertising here) complement ZH for investment purposes?

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 15:12 | 4080370 StandardDeviant
StandardDeviant's picture

For the Brits in the crowd: Be aware that you can hold allocated gold bullion in a SIPP (Self-Invested Pension Plan).

"Allocated" means that it has to remain in the vault; you can't take it home with you on your leaky boat.  However, it's not just a paper claim on some undifferentiated pile which may or may not exist.  There are specific, numbered bars allocated to your account, and you can arrange to go and view them in person if you wish.

Not as good as holding the real thing, obviously, as it's a sitting duck for legalised theft by a desperate government if TS well and truly HTF - just look at what happened in Poland.  But it could be useful as an inflation hedge, at any rate.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 16:37 | 4080700 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Go to a coin shop and buy gold/silver with cashie-munney. Then take it home in your leaky-boaty.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 15:26 | 4080418 StandardDeviant
StandardDeviant's picture

Oh, and for the Canadians: As I hope you know by now, the current foreign content limit in an RRSP is 100%.  The gov't there did away with the 20% foreign content restriction back in 2005.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:20 | 4079724 falak pema
falak pema's picture

There are those who have as mission to be Johnny at the Alamo of fiat temple and then there are the POLITICIANS who are the biggest turncoats in God's world when the wind turns :

Awesome, about turn for a political shill who sat on Carlyle's Corporate Board in those Halcyon years before 2008...

Mr Major you deserve the medal of dis-honour, now playing as TOry's odd man out; to soothe your conscience.

Next we know Tony Blair will tell us the US strategy in Syria is undoing all the good work he did in Iraq/Afgh with GWB.

"I agree with Bandar", anything to stay in the buzz and the gravy that goes with it. 

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:15 | 4079725 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Can we really call Bernanke's Virtuous Circle Jerk 'lunacy' if it works exactly as intended? As you say, when the SHTF, "the insiders will have already cashed out and converted their fiat gains into hard, real, truly valuable assets." This is a feature, not a bug. It seems like lunacy to us, but that's only because we aren't the insiders. We're the ones being screwed.

What we're witnessing is the equivalent of Washington's alleged statement about the last act of a government being the looting of the treasury. Since we've morphed into a fascist/corporatist state, it's a coordinated effort between the Fed and well-connected banks and corporations to steal everything that's not nailed down. The current system is dying (though it's taking longer than many of us thought possible), and the insiders are now positioning themselves to maintain control over the next one.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:32 | 4079747 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re; and the insiders are now positioning themselves to maintain control over the next one

Exactly right.   And, if "the insiders" ran the last system and they are going to run the "next system" then (really) it's been the same system for about 10000+ years.

We are simply watching the smartest-n-savviest people screwing the clueless dumbasses.   The historians and semi-autistic economists - who attempt to explain the behavior of winning sociopaths with very long books - label the different eras as different systems which just confuses the dumbasses more.  

Survivial of the fittest doesn't always work-out like the young male dumbasses think it will.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:48 | 4079811 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Mugabe is still running the show in Zimbabwe so you sir, are correct.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:15 | 4079892 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

That's too grim ... in some places and some times, life is pretty okay for most or all people for a good long while

In north-western Continental Europe, life is still pretty much ... paradise

Almost no one in jail here, not much crime, zero poverty among legal residents, everyone has health care, little fear of gov't the police lawyers or courts ... great food, modest cost of living, lots of people look attractive ... yes and we even own guns too here (like my .45 pistol, a favourite at the local Brussels shooting club) ... in Belgium 1 out of every 140 of us is a millionaire (vs in the USA 1 out of 140 is in prison, ha !)

It has been that way here for decades ... one can argue that it is unsustainable and we will 'blow up' too ... but we have had a good long run of relative paradise, since the 1950s ...

There have been ups and downs in civilisations ... like for example there seems to have been quite a lost 'golden age' in the Buddhist cultures of Northern India, from about 600 to 1100 CE ... countries with no death penalty, great gentleness and tolerance, and even an advanced Kama Sutra view of sexuality ... they focused too much on spirituality and fell to Muslim invaders ... but there had been a great university at Nalanda, India, for about 1,700 years !

It seems like the USA had a 'golden age' where life was really good even for many in the working class ... tho in the USA, it was always incomplete with many 'left out' sectors ... plus the USA was always re-involved in some deep genocidal shite ... they went from killing Native Americans to a civil war on each other to killing hundreds of thousands of Filipinos in the 1890s - 1900s etc ... but at least internally, US maybe had some days when it seemed like a good place to live

It is hard to be optimistic in fascist America now, but big chunks of the world (Latin America, southeast Asia) have optimism, whereas in our corner of Continental Europe we see a merely genteel decline amid our comfortable museum ... we will of course have to get re-sorted after the euro blows up (quite soon)

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:25 | 4079928 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

> but we have had a good long run of relative paradise, since the 1950s ...

Paradise!? Since the '50's, you say!? What a long time indeed! Most marriages don't even last that long! Why, that's even before the Beatles!


Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:29 | 4079936 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

"plus the USA was always re-involved in some deep genocidal shite ... they went from killing Native Americans to a civil war on each other to killing hundreds of thousands of Filipinos in the 1890s - 1900s etc ... but at least internally, US maybe had some days when it seemed like a good place to live"

Yes, indeed. Seems I remember them getting involved saving your useless asses a while back also.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:35 | 4079956 prains
prains's picture

Stalingrad cleared the 6th Army off the map, all you guys had to contend with was some left over panzer divisions and second rate german rear guard troops. It was a foregone conclusion from the start and you still almost fucked it up, it took you months and if the tables were turned the Germans could have done it in weeks with that amount of men and material. Just keep the self back slapping down to a dull roar is all. 

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:37 | 4079961 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

yeah, your hero stalin and his unwashed scumbag army of rapists is what saved us all.


Tue, 10/22/2013 - 15:23 | 4080407 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

The US Army in action...Raping a 14 Year Old Iraq Girl and murdering her and her parents. PEDOPHILES. SCUMBAGS.


Do you have anything like that on the Soviet Army? (Now I would not put that past them as THEY ARE NO DIFFERENT.)


But save me the Bullshit about how we are so great so I do not have to throw this garbage...IN YOUR FACE.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 16:45 | 4080733 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Coming soon to the US via the DHS/FBI einsatzgruppen.

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 10:50 | 4082673 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

You dumb fuck. Some grainy, doctored footage that makes a 60's stag film look like James Cameron produced it?  that's your EVIDENCE. 

And we're supposed to compare this amatuer shit to the rape of Ukraine. Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania. Poland and half of Germany.

It has to be true because it's on the internet, right?  Weapons, gear non standardized.  This is some leftist douche idea of how "operators" "operate".  It has about as much validity as calling Apocolypse Now a documentary about Vietnam.

I hunger for the day when we can finally quit arguing over the webs and take this out into the open.  

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 14:15 | 4080134 Row Well Number 41
Row Well Number 41's picture

Thanks, but I'll chalk that up to another Russian Winter.  Russians don't kill armies their Winters do.


Tue, 10/22/2013 - 14:42 | 4080259 css1971
css1971's picture

Good generals use the environment to best advantage. The Russians knew exactly what would happen when winter came around. Happens to every jumped up little Bonaparte who has tried to invade.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 15:06 | 4080346 PivotalTrades
PivotalTrades's picture

The victory over Nazi Germany was achieved through the economic power of the United States and the lives of millions of Soviets, who for reasons that defy logic made the ultimate sacrifice to keep in power a regime as brutal as their Nazi enemy.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 17:24 | 4080876 BlobbyBlueBland
BlobbyBlueBland's picture

By all metrics, vastly more brutal. Nazis are touted as "the worst regime EVER" when in reality they're a drop in the bucket compared to some of the other atrocities committed in the 20th century.

Why don't we ever hear in our textbooks, memorials, museums, and movies how destructive the Communist regimes were? We only hear about the poor jews, who were the ONLY victims of WWII (/sarc) and nobody else suffered. Marinate on that a bit and I'm sure you'll come to the right conclusion. 

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:36 | 4079957 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

I believe you're correct... it was that whole genocidal killing of hundreds of thousands of defenseless Nazis, or something.  It happened a long time ago though, way before this pastoral, peaceful bliss they've been enjoying since the 1950's.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 15:04 | 4080337 Singelguy
Singelguy's picture

How many of those millionaires are crooks working for the EU in Brussels?

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:20 | 4079907 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Bingo...  you'll get down voted from all the free market capitalists and communists alike...  but the proof is in the pudding.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 15:15 | 4080378 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

You are missing the point that the free market functions by forcing the businesses to please the customer. The opposite is true with government, where the 'customer' is forced to obey those in charge, thereby bringing out the very worst behaviors in government sociopaths.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 16:45 | 4080713 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

You speak of the free market as if it's a god or a person who can dictate things...  no, in "free market" capitalism, there is still a need for a market regulator to ensure that the consolidation of power does not lead to punitive or inefficient outcomes by monopolists (the "sociopaths" aren't just in the government; that word is also a clinical term that people throw around as if it wasn't a clinical term...).  There is NEVER a perfect harmony between all market participants whereby perfect competition is realized and the consumer reaps the benefits from market participants cutting themselves (and their profits) to the bone.  Self interest demands that rational actors wouldn't be caught dead working for free for the benefit of others.  The best we can get is some half-assed, broke dick version of capitalism because the market (rational actors) will not allow anything more competitive.  Further, a vice ensues in that the larger the market regulator, the more centralized power there is to corrupt...  which is always corrupted.

Capitalism is the cleanest dirty shirt in the basket, but I'm not sure we ought to feel great for wearing it.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:31 | 4079945 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

"Survivial of the fittest doesn't always work-out like the young male dumbasses think it will."

Good point. Sometimes the fittest is someone who can out think the crowd rather than pummel them into submission.

Also, "the insiders" have the ability to get the herd fighting amongst themselves in a "survival of the fittest" mentality rather than looking upward to their owners and seeing them as the target of their anger. It's amazing how well that propaganda mill works, yet it does again and again as the mob members believe they too will become one of the elites one day. That mentality is fully ingrained into the current system and works wonderfully for the owners and will continue to do so.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:34 | 4079952 CPL
CPL's picture

Thats why everyone needs to drop it and walk away.  Don't lift a finger to help it.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 15:05 | 4080342 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Excellent comment.

The "smartest-n-savviest" are able to screw the clueless dumbasses because the dumbasses are social herd animals.

There aren't any social hierarchies where the members are all free and/or equal. So that is what they're going to get.

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 08:22 | 4082235 Incubus
Incubus's picture

an advanced egalitarian society is possible, but it requires a genuine want for learning and humanism.

We're not evolved enough as organisms to have sustained advanced civilization.

Put "advanced & fair society" right next to the delusions of capitalism and communism.

The problem with people is that if you leave them to their own "free dumbs" they'll just trend towards leisure and pleasures.

People need guidance.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:40 | 4079801 MetalFillBoy
MetalFillBoy's picture



My comments for 10/15, w.r.t "the insiders are now positioning themselves to maintain control over the next one"


And do you really think that would change anything???  

Think about it....fine, burn this bitch to the ground.  

Then what??  

From the ashes, we start a new.  

And guess what emerges?  A group called TPTB.  

You think this new TPTB will be act more in your best interest?  Nope.

They will act just like the previous TPTB.  "What is mine, is mine.  What is yours is going to be mine too!"

"What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun."


Some here have the illusion that life will be better after a collapse.  I am not a history major, but I think if we all study what happens to people during a collapse, we all might not be so eager for it to happen.  At best, we can try and prepare for the coming collapse, and hope for the best. . . .


Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:11 | 4079862 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

That's a true sentiment. We currently have feudal lords who use mostly money and economic methods to throw their weight around and get their way. They also use violence when those methods don't get the results they want.

Post collapse I see violence as the main method that everyone will use to get their way. It's expedient and most folks in America don't have many tools beyond it, especially once they are terribly inconvenienced by the discomfort a collapse would bring.

While I abhor this current corrupt system, I doubt we would get much more than a "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" system in the aftermath of a collapse. Too many people alive today are ingrained with a I've got mine screw you, win at any cost mentality. That won't bode well for rebuilding a civilization that's any better than the one we have. They'll just change out who sit on top the heap.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:31 | 4079947 CPL
CPL's picture

Fuck the stock price.  Who cares what it's worth, it's in USD.

Most shares in all Markets right now are diluted pieces of shit.  If you are the buyer of said stocks and companies.  You only need to do one thing right now if you are a buyer.  Wait.  Just wait for the USD rate to match your target price. 

BTW: The markets won't crash, it's all bots, no volume and the only assholes left to sell to are each other with everyone's pensions.  Which will eventually be raided by someone with a 'wealth tax'.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:03 | 4079681 VD
VD's picture


Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:30 | 4079773 dryam
dryam's picture

"it's all about the coming devaluation

and we look forward the day when Obama with Yellen and Lew flanking him explains to the sheep why this is a good thing

trust me that day is coming and coming sooner than most think"


How do you think that devaluation is going to look like, or take place in practical terms?

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:55 | 4079832 The Heart
The Heart's picture

"it's all about the coming devaluation"

Howdy hey Zero.

Can you say...BINGO!

How sad it is to watch the ship burn and sink. Our forefathers that fought and died for America all died for nothing. One of the primary instigators of more and more babylonian antics is the fact that the dogs of justice are fast catching up to these criminals.:

The race to cover up the cover ups with more false flags and planned events to crash the whole system may be manifesting. As you say, "trust me that day is coming and coming sooner than most think"

One day at a time. That is as fast as we can live racing the ever quickening clock.



Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:15 | 4079889 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

I would think that's the day conspiracy theory moves to conspiracy fact with an official recognition from Barry.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 14:00 | 4080054 knightowl77
knightowl77's picture

I believe what you say

       But I have believed this since 2009.....


                    Any clue as to when??????


Tue, 10/22/2013 - 14:05 | 4080086 Honey Badger
Honey Badger's picture

promises, promises

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 16:39 | 4080715 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

It will be a good thing because when it happens, EVERYONE can get on obamacare.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 11:58 | 4079658 vxpatel
vxpatel's picture

Why has the price of crude been increasing over the last few years as global GDP has plummeted? Peak oil is real and it is here, now.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:03 | 4079678 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Could it be that oil is priced in USD?  Nahh...


Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:07 | 4079696 vxpatel
vxpatel's picture

so then the price of oil isn't based on supply and demand?

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:54 | 4079827 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Why yes, of course it is. Thing is, the over supply of dollars is itself creating a demand for "quality, tangible assets."

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:09 | 4079704 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Those promissory notes can (and are) being created out of thin air with the click of a button.  Unfortunately, the calories required for 7+ billion people to actually do anything cannot.

Hedge accordingly.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:51 | 4079807 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



...the calories required for 7+ billion people to actually do anything cannot.

I know a simple way we can drop that 7+ billion number very quickly.  It will fix everything.

The disclosures, which were first reported in the September 4 New York Times, detailed U.S. development of a biological-agent production facility and a model biological bomb, as well as plans to produce a new strain of anthrax. The BWC outlaws development and possession of biological agents and weapons for offensive purposes but permits defensive activity.

Don't fear the reaper.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:14 | 4079884 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Good thing I am already immune.  As a young man I worked out of Fort Detrick HH (ARMY AMMED).  I am well aware of what has and is going on.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 14:20 | 4080159 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

"already immune"

What part of NEW strain don't you comprehend?

I suppose your whole tribe is immune as well? No? Oh well!

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:10 | 4079710 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

I like the Production Per Unit Effort metric - definitely shows the 'health' of the supply.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:27 | 4079761 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

It is not that we are running out of oil yet (someday we will), it is the available supply is at a lower quality and more difficult to extract. Cost is going to go up!

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:36 | 4079790 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re: I like the Production Per Unit Effort metric


Great link.   Never heard of the term.   

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:59 | 4080029 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Well, the site is out of business because they couldn't maintain (or grow) their peak oil doomer user base

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 14:27 | 4080197 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Seems to me that as this forces the price of Oil to rise in fiat currencies, this only helps the USD, its Petro-Dollar Ponzi and its GRC status.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:17 | 4079897 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Can it be both that cheap supplies OF OIL are diminished and that cheap supplies of US Dollars have been increased?


Can it be both? It is wise to not restrict your thinking to False Dilemmas when there is a spectrum of possibilities that exist that must be considered.


You limit yourself and do not serve yourself, or others, well when you do that.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:08 | 4079703 Calculus99
Calculus99's picture

I think this is the 'thing' that the fed is so scared about. Money makes the world goes around for sure, but it takes second place to the price of Energy.

Big political fallout now in the UK about the cost of energy (home heating). All the  energy companies are putting their prices up by around 10% which is on the back of 5-10% increases every year for the past several. Before long the exponentials start catching up with people. 

With costs so high in the UK, and rising, for all the neccesities (energy, transport, taxes, food) it's not going to be  too long before the average houshold has ZERO money left over for anything else. Want a new  pair of jeans, get saving a few pounds a  week and you'll get them for xmas 2014.

All this sounds ajoke but remember the famous quote of Albert Bartlett -

“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."
Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:12 | 4079715 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Did someone say paper promises? Exponential indeed;


Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:56 | 4079836 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

The Y2k panic barely shows up at all anymore.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 14:58 | 4080319 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

And a far more famous 'Albert', when asked what he thought was the greatest invention of the 20th Century, was said to have answered: "COMPOUND INTEREST!"

Only someone who understands compounding and the laws of physics (and E=mc^2) can fully appreciate Einstein's cheeky and ironic humor.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:29 | 4079767 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  All this sounds ajoke but remember the famous quote of Albert Bartlett

Good quote.  What also true is that a certain percentage of the population does understand exponectial functions.   And another percentage of the population understands how to create scams.   The intersection of the two are called "financial markets". 

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:56 | 4080030 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

The problem with understanding the Exponential is that the rate can appear linear with minor fluctuation until the divergence from the projected rate is so apparent that it is impossible to deny.


Few understand Algebra in the United States. Far fewer understand Calculus and the differential or integral. It is written that just 2% of the population have the ability to think exponentially. Unfortunately the vast majority of those Engineers, Mathematicians and Physical Scientists work for the Scam Artists like the MIC of Financial Industry as we have very little real production.


When I speak with people it is as if they are clueless. I use the example of f(x)= 1/x2 when speaking to people. Most of them stare vacuuously when I ask them how much nutrient remains in a bottle at 52 Minutes when innoculated with a culture of bacteria which doubles it population every minute and exhausts all nutrient in one hour. (They fill the jar and die. They are astonished when I tell them that 255 parts out of 256 still have nutrient at 52 Minutes. Then I ask that if they were one of the Bacteria would they believe that there were a plentitude of resources?


It is like this Peak Oil topic. It is like that they just don't understand. It is the Math. The Math lays the truth out. But if they are innumerate...good luck. And if they are semi numerate but do not understand the differential rates of growth, rates of demand, rates of discovery, rates of production, rates of costs associated with production, and a whole plethora of other concepts it is absolutely impossible to tell them we are like the bacteria in the jar and we are running out of nutrient.


Because...It is the Math. And they do not understand the Math. And it is like talking to a fucking wall, or a bacteria, at times.


One would think that Base 2 Exponentials would not be all that demanding. Base 10 Exponentials (Orders of Magnitude) are somewhat confusing to them. But then start talking about Base 'e' exponentials, the Natural, what we actually observe., then they look at you as if you were some freaky, crazy space case. You cannot talk to most people.


That is the hardest part. There is nobody to talk with...unless you watch TeeVee and want to speak of Miley's Twerking at the Music Awards or other meaningless trivia.


It is lonely at the top. I think that you know.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 14:19 | 4080153 css1971
css1971's picture

This is why there are so many zombie movies. Guess who the zombies represent.

ok say there's a train barrelling down the track towards the end of the track at full speed, you see it coming and are standing there in front of the concrete wall behind the buffers... You have phoned and called and talked to the driver and passengers and the signal engineers and the police and the train authorities on their phones but nobody believes you, they havent even started to apply the brakes, in fact they are still trying to get the train to go faster.

How do you stop the train and save everyone?

You don't. You step aside and make sure you and your loved ones are well out of the way when it hits the wall because there is going to be a huge mess, lots of suffering and there is absolutely nothing you can do about it individually.

The best you can do is provide assistance in the aftermath.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 14:52 | 4080296 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"You get what you pay for".  And this is what you get when your financial 'ruler' is not defined like the SI "Meter", but more like a "Bunji chord" -- aka fiat-Dollar, aka Petro-Dollar.  We can all agree on the distance from A to B on a map if we use meters or miles and use meters, or Feet to measure it.  When you measurement unit is made of a Bunji Chord, the "distance" can be anything you fucking want it to be.

We the 99.8% have been bamboozled by "Bunji Chord currencies", when we should have stuck with the hard rulers of meters and gold.  Only 0.2% of We The People have clued in to the monetary scam of the Millennium.  Alas, half of the "clued in" 0.2% are not part of the super-rich 0.1% who clued in a long time ago.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:39 | 4079798 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

You can play funny money for as long as you think you can.....motherfuckers.

But energy is needed to fuel the economy.....and you don't need as much when you don't have a job to drive to.  Or to buy useless iShit from Wally World.  Which means Wally World doesn't need as many trucks to fuel up.

Oil is telling us something.  Some people want to ignore that...........

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:46 | 4079804 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

JEEZ !!!!  It just hit me when I looked at all these charts again.

They all form a GIANT MOUTH !!!!!!

DAaaaaaa DA.

DAaaaaaa DA.


Tue, 10/22/2013 - 11:58 | 4079659 Cdad
Cdad's picture

The Federal Reserve has decided that the best thing for America is to continue to diminish its currency value, and in so doing, maintain the 5 year long policy of bailing out criminal syndicate Wall Street banks with daily cash infusions.  It's what's good for you.  Ben Bernanke has said it.  Janet Yellen will say it.

In the meantime, there is plenty of room in the economic wasteland...for all of you!

Thank you, Ben Bernanke.


Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:11 | 4079711 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Expectations for Yellen are very high amongst the Squid Parasitic Blood Funnel crowd.

If her very first monthly dosage of QE medicine isn't at least 105 or maybe 115 billion, there will be temper tantrums on Broad Street.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:18 | 4079733 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Yes! MOAR QE...even moarer than QE infinity!  All aboard Ben Bernanke's Banana Tree Republic movement!  

Where once a great people decided, through risk taking, capital allocation, and hard work...just which business would continue and which would not...enter the new normal of ALWAYS printing money to preserve the old dead wood [criminal syndicate useless Wall Street banks] in lieu of ANY OTHER CONSIDERATION!

J. Dimon for President!  Blue collar the gallows!  The transformation of America is almost complete.  HOOOOORAY!


Tue, 10/22/2013 - 14:37 | 4080238 optimator
optimator's picture

She'll have to do it to increase employment.  Sarc of course.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:00 | 4079661 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Depends on WHOSE 'Fundamentals' we're talking about.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:00 | 4079662 slotmouth
slotmouth's picture

Wow, this states the case for the fed creating asset bubbles better than anything else I have seen.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:07 | 4079700 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  this states the case for the fed creating asset bubbles better than anything else I have seen.

All economists know there's no such thing as a bubble because:  all information is known and all the actors are rational.   

(It is so written, and must be true.  Amen)

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:00 | 4079663 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



It's amazing how those printed fiats know to go straight to stocks like a fresh offspring goes right to momma's teet.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 15:07 | 4080354 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"He who prints first, prints best".  Alas, the same people also know when to "Exit first".

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:02 | 4079665 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

No surprise here to any regular ZH reader. Ben prints $85 large ("jumbo"?), gives it to his primaries, they lever it up 10x and throw it at stocks, bonds and commodities (oil). There is "low inflation" so it's all good.  :~)

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:09 | 4079706 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The question of the decade as regards this has not been answered.

Why isn't the money supply growing and diluting?  What is the source of money disappearance which Ben is simply replacing as fast as he can?

Likely . . . mortgage defaults continuing.  There is so much non marked to market paper at the banks that it represents $85B/month money disappearance.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:30 | 4079942 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

I'd say dilution/devaluation has to be occuring in that it seeps out of the containment vessels (banks) into the broader economy...  energy, food, general necessities and common household items...  all rising rather quickly in price or staying put at elevated levels.  Whatever the aggregate numbers may be, the general population is not benefitting from the monetary policy.  Some of the nonsense inevitably ends up slipping into the broader economy as they can't perfectly contain it.  While the FED may not be able (or want) to keep up with the deflationary black hole, for the time being, it feels like inflation in most areas that matter.  

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 14:24 | 4080173 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

"Whatever the aggregate numbers may be, the general population is not benefitting from the monetary policy."

Relative to peasants in Africa who work the same or greater hours and still can't afford a drop of oil, I'd say they're benefitting a whole lot...

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 16:32 | 4080683 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

I agree, but if we're going to lower the bar to the floor, then I'm not sure of the point of discussing anything...  Yes, I have it better than a Tijuana donkey show girl, but I'm not sure that's saying much...

This brings up a broader philosophical question which is often overlooked on this site, to boom and bust or not to boom and bust.  Judging by your question, I presume you're in favor of a credit/interest system.  Those states who've adopted it have managed to not only leave the stone age behind, but have come up with some novel ideas and benefited their societies as a whole.  Whether or not it all comes crashing down in a flash is another question (the great library fire), but at least some amount of our technology and other matters developed during a boom cycle (i.e. capital misallocation) is left following the inevitable bust.  As fucked up and inequitable as it may be, on the macro level, we're stair stepping upwards. 

Obviously this comes at a cost, and the other side of the equation is that people don't particularly feel fulfilled by all of the boom times, nonsensical consumption, and general decadence...  we're losing fundamental aspects that ought to be more revered as humans (hence the clash between "american culture" and the rest of the traditional world)...  and, frankly, the boom/bust cycle comes with a certain degree of servitude and complacency that must be ceded.  For many, the juice is no longer worth the squeeze... 

However, on the whole and over a long enough timeline, I can't say what is the better practice...  we might be able to change, temporarily, who benefits from the money game, but not for long...  and I fancy a warm place to take a shit.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:00 | 4079666 No Euros please...
No Euros please we&#039;re British's picture

So that's bullish for the Fed? Yes? They're going up with the S&P.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:01 | 4079670 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture




Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:02 | 4079679 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Is there a point you would like to make?

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:08 | 4079702 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



Thanks for listening.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:10 | 4079707 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Speechless is entirely apropos.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:13 | 4079720 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture


Fixed it for you.

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 00:03 | 4081801 WOAR
WOAR's picture

"And that's all I got to say about that."

- Gump, Forrest Gump.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:06 | 4079672 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The illusion of prosperity must be maintained at all costs, even at the expense of the Bernank's funny money.


Speaking of funny money, I thought the Bernank was going to issue the latest and greatest in Monoploy money this month.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:07 | 4079869 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Emergency, illusion has stopped working!

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 15:20 | 4080398 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I read somewhere that the US used Trade Agreements to force nations to buy (some of) our toxic sludge, i.e. MBS.  Probably from GS.  Once they swallowed that toxic pill, the Fed had them on the hook and they became our Indentured Servants, because they needed Ben's QE currency to  keep the show going.

Assuming this is true, I would you say that if our Fed+MIC didn't hold the guns to Sovereign heads, that they would have dumped Ben's "funny money" a long time ago.  And we all know what happens to "rogue nations" who want to go it alone in dumping the Dollar in favor of gold or the EUR.  E.g. Libya (gold), and Iraq (EUR).

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:02 | 4079673 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

See, it's working like magic!

Well, it is f-cking magic, so it should work that way.

Money from thin air.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:02 | 4079675 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Aaaaaannnnd that says it all, thanks for coming, don't panic, central planning has it ALL under contol...

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:03 | 4079682 orangegeek
Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:03 | 4079685 stateside
stateside's picture

In the past, gold would naturally follow the expansion in the FED's balance sheet as well but the gold market wasn't "massaged" in the past as it is today.



Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:08 | 4079699 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Masaged ?

That would be like calling a gang rape a fling.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:10 | 4079709 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  In the past, gold

Unless gold is predicting something else.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:28 | 4079755 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Everything except the stock market is screaming deftationary collapse.

Sooner or later ,even this 'market' will get the message.

The only question is whether we get hyperinfation before or after.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:52 | 4079820 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

The Stock Market AND HOUSING MARKET would also be screaming Deflationary collapse if the prices were not artificially elevated by QE and the MBS Purchases. The Plunge Protection Team is doing their job.


The US Government relies upon inflation in order to survive. If wages do not increase and home prices decline then tax revenues decrease. Then Government cannot meet their obligations, pay off on Bonds, and meet the needs of their dependents as well as fund a Standing Army.


So they must inflate or die. Since the PSYCHOPATHS will do anything to stay in power they will inflate. They must inflate as a deflation will create instant insolvency and subsequent, and deserved, death. They will do anything to survive...ANYTHING.


It should be apparent to all, at this point, that they intend to hyperinflate. They refused to taper. They cannot taper. There will be no taper. The Hyperinflationary path has been crystalized.


We have been in a Deflationary cycle since 2008. Deflation precedes Hyperinflation histoically. There is a thread on Kitco Forums, authored by Lubbad, that is a scholarly work documenting this.


(Even a University Professor had plagarized Lubbad's research, published it as his own. I discovered that. It was messed up. I let him know.)


Read the first five posts. It is pretty exhaustive (complete) and not tiresome.


I hope that it becomes clear to you what is happening after you read Lubbad's assessment. It is a very, very long thread that has a lot of divergences. But the thesis is contained in the first five posts and is well worth your investment in time.



Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:51 | 4080009 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Deflation is a fucking myth as no society/currency has collapsed/died because their purchasing power became too strong.  Only one rule will apply now that there are no consequences for bad behavior and resource mis-allocation and mal-investment;

When fraud is the status quo, possession is the law.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 14:35 | 4080232 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

"Deflation is a fucking myth as no society/currency has collapsed/died because their purchasing power became too strong."

I guess they don't teach rhetoric in the army, this one's called a non-sequitur. Furthermore, insofar as deflation has occurred in history once or more, it is not a myth.

It is not moronic Keynesian deflation, granted, it is energy deflation, something nether Keynesians, Magic Money Tree'ers, nor Austrians can comprehend, and which will be accompanied, of course, by currency collapse as all currencies' value is little more than ability-to-buy-energy.

I do wish you'd tell us when and where it was that the world wasn't the way you claim it "now" is, because from where I am, nothing has changed, the scam just evolved for the state-capitalist age and the digital age...

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 15:32 | 4080441 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

@T: "... all currencies' value is little more than ability-to-buy-energy."

I'd expand on this a bit, by including Resources, Time and Labor.  As such, I'd re-frame it as "A claim on Resources, Labor, Time and Energy". 

IOW, if you Input Resources + Energy, and apply Labor + Time, you get Outputs.  Outputs that have inherent and fiat value. 

And when people speak of something having inherent and fiat value, it reminds me of Real and Imaginary components in Complex Numbers, where TPTB control the Imaginary components.  ;-)

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 14:42 | 4080240 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

I disagree. If Deflation is a myth then Inflation is as much as a myth.


So I will present my case. Inflation and Defalation are the very same phenomena. They are measured RELATIVE to one another.


Imagine two concentric spheres as an OUTSIDE observer. The Spheres are dynamic. They can inflate or deflate depending on the conditions.


For brevity let us label the spheres. The Interior Sphere is Sphere 'A'. The Exterior Sphere is Sphere 'B'


The next condition is that INSIDE Observers cannot see what is happening from the perspective of the OUTSIDE. Furthermore INSIDE Observers ERRONEOUSLY are under the assumption that their REFERENCE POINT is the PREFERRED FRAME OF REFERENCE and the Conditions, whereever they may be are STATIC. INSIDE Observers are entirely SUBJECTIVE whereas the OUTSIDE Observer, with all of the information, is entirely OBJECTIVE and actually have CONTROL over both the conditions of A and B. 


Now suppose that, as an Outside Observer, that we INFLATE 'A'. The INSIDE Observer, located on the surface of 'A', believing his condition is static, observes that 'B' is DEFLATING.


Now suppose that, as an Outside Observer, that we DEFLATE 'A'. The INSIDE Observer, located on the surface of 'A', believing that his condition is static, observes that 'B' is INFLATING.


In BOTH of the previous cases Sphere 'B' was static. We did not change the condition of 'B'. Sphere 'B' was neither Deflating, or Inflating, yet reports from the INSIDE Observer on Sphere 'A' would be erroneous. Sphere 'A' is where all of the REAL ACTION was being carried out.


And yet the Oberver on Sphere 'A' was completely oblivious as he was operating on an ERRONEOUS PREMISE that his Frame of Reference was somehow Preferred and the ERRONEOUS PREMISE that conditions on the Sphere where he was located were Static.


I can place the INSIDE Observer on 'B', manipulate 'A', and the INSIDE Observer will report similar erroneous conclusions.


When you write that Deflation is a "Myth" you are taking the position of an Observer on Sphere 'A'. Furthermore Fakete, who does not understand the Principle which I give to you, believes that we are heading into HyperDeflation. (He is right, as right as those whom proclaim the Hyperinflationary Event...but it is not exactly as he thinks that it is.)


Inflation and Deflation are the very same phenomena. It is RELATIVE. It depends upon the Frame of Reference. And as Einstein correctly stated, "There are no preferred Frames of References."


And, finally, the United States was almost dissolved in a Military Coup in 1933, due to a Deflationary Depression. That fact is not widely advertised.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:27 | 4079763 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Gold is like a Ball underwater. Yes yuo can keep it there for awhile, if you apply the force and expend the energy to do that.


But there is no such concept as free energy. All energy has a cost associated with it. And when the Ball is released it just does not float gently to the surface. It temporarily rises above its natural stasis point before settling back to float on the surface.


Well keep depressing that Ball. Force it down further. Please expend the energy to do that so that you tire out and DROWN Mr. Bernanke, Jamie Dimon, and Llyod Blankfein. I hope that you destroy the Federal Reserve Bank and the US Dollar in the process of doing so. DROWN you fucking rats. Take a deep breath underwater. The first one is the hardest.


The rebound will be even more pronounced.


Have a good day...

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:06 | 4079695 Tabarnaque
Tabarnaque's picture

You forgot a grraph of the Federal Reserve Balance sheet and the price of gold...

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:13 | 4079716 Bobportlandor
Bobportlandor's picture

Old story

U.S. Dollar Index just went lower
Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:13 | 4079718 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Don't forget that normal human pathological optimism increases at 3% per year.   So,  assuming that "markets" are (mostly) male gamblers, that would imply the normal increase in any object being gambled should increase at a rate much higher than 3%.   

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:15 | 4079726 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

Well done ZH.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:28 | 4079727 Trampy
Trampy's picture

Yeah, but the trade signal is opposite of what most here might think, given that if they ever actually traded, it was probably only equities.

"Markets can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

The best safest way to play a strongly rising market is to write puts below support and collect premium, with a stop placed when paper loss exceeds initial premium.

Biggest risk would be an event shock that triggered panic selling and massive liquidation acrosss classes, but that's what your stop is for.

There's no such thing as a sure thing, but this going long ES by writing puts is pretty close..


Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:20 | 4079729 Mercury
Mercury's picture


Punch up similar on Japan and see the diminishing returns just around the corner. They have been juicing their balance sheet big time for about a year but in the last few months the Nikkei and the USDJPY -once in up mode- have now flattened out.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:19 | 4079734 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Party Pooper! 


Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:20 | 4079741 monopoly
monopoly's picture

The question is When do these idiots lose control of interest rates.....Not if. Then, game, set. match. Over!!

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:25 | 4079756 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

When overt nationalization and capitol controls are implemented.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:24 | 4079753 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

The only benchmark that matters is the Venezuelan stock market. Money creation is production. You are not using the right metrics.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:26 | 4079759 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

"the spice must flow"...

and there you have it, further proof that our entire economy is now being propped up and sustained by nothing more than the by product of giant worms.

all praise to bernanke shai-hulud who's passing issued in the era of the centrally planned worm shit economy.

once again the truth is indeed far stranger than fiction.

and a nod to Frank Herbert for providing a way to reference this absurdity.  


Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:28 | 4079766 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Oil getting near breakeven for shale plays. Going to be ahurtin' if she goes any lower. Bakken peaking in the next 2 quarters.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:36 | 4079789 johngerard
johngerard's picture

Fuck that, Tyler - what about the new iPad?

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:45 | 4079806 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

The oddball is that the pessimistic data is all wrong.  Happy Talk!!!

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:47 | 4079810 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Too much talk and too little preparation.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 12:51 | 4079819 Rand Mises Hayek
Rand Mises Hayek's picture

Inflate or Die  The longer the charade goes on the harder it will be in the end.

No integrity  No Leadership 

In the end of the Roman empire, the Romans laid down their arms and allowed the Barbarians to invade with no resistance. It was the only way to extract the corrupt politicians from power.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:29 | 4079937 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

There is still one political play left. It will probably spell the death of the USD as a reserve currency and maybe the FED also along with causing a lot of turmoil but it will in theory anyways wipe a big portion of the debt load clean in one fell swoop. There is a reason why contract law is important, social contracts or otherwise.It revolves around the 14th Amendment and 2014 Congressional elections. Here is how it works in theory. You clean house in Congress with a majority Tea Party types. Then the military goes after Obama for not being a valid candidate for office between his birth certificate and selective service card. As long as you can prove there was concerted conspiracy to have an invalid candidate put into office that is enough to prove insurrection and that is where the 14th Amendment comes in. Specifically 2 sections.

Section 4. The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned. But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.

Section 5. The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.

It will mean throwing the Saudi's under the bus and possibly the FED also and opens up all sorts of cans of worms and unintended consequences but 4+ years of debt expension is basically wiped null and void along with debts to any major players/countries in the process who backed the Manchurian Candidate. You may lose USD supremacy but you stiff the Saudi's outright for any debts in the process.

I am not saying it will happen, just outlining a scenario where it could if contract law is enforced.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 14:32 | 4080216 optimator
optimator's picture

That's the plan, but first they'll fire the generals before they can, um....They alreade did what?

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:01 | 4079843 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

Gee, I wonder if printing money and handing it to bankers has anything to do with any of this?  No way. Bart Chilton would say," I need more proof." As he gently throws back his oh so smooth and silky golden locks.  What a guy.  What he's a guy?

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:15 | 4079888 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Just got in from work and read through my mail, the delivered ones not E-mails.  The wife banks with the rat bastards HSBC and the change of term and conditions applicable from Jan 1st 2014 were included in the post along with a very sinister, hiden in plain sight flyer from the 'Financial Services Compensation Scheme'.

This is it typed out as I read from the flyer.  'Your eligible deposits with HSBC bank plc are protected by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, the UK's deposit protection scheme'.  Any deposits you hold above the £85,000 limit are not covered.  Visit

Now this little pearler in the small print of the booklet of term and conditions, same again, typed as I see it straight from the page.  'HSBC and First Direct are both trading names of HSBC Bank plc and customers who hold deposits under both trading names will only be eligible for one claim of £85,000 in total'.

See where we are going here?  The rat bastards are closing ranks and informing the unsuspecting sheep just what is about to go down, if you cant physically hold it, you dont own it.  Prepare accordingly folks.

Pass this on folks if you know anyone with accounts with these drug running, money laundering rat bastards.



Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:19 | 4079904 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Do you honestly believe that even the first £85000 is insured?

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:34 | 4079951 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

What do you think Mr Pan?

We are after all dealing with 'Rat bastard, drug running, money laundering thieves'.

No I dont mate, I personally believe you will recieve the total sum of sweet fuck all, these are the worst of the lot though HSBC.

Just a heads up is all.

Tue, 10/22/2013 - 13:57 | 4080034 css1971
css1971's picture

The nature of banking, your bank account is legally an investment (loan to) in the bank.

Just remember it's insured by the government, so when the bank collapses, your money is already gone. The bank doesn't have it any more, they spent it or loaned it out long ago. To get something back therefpre you are going to have to claim against the government insurance.

Might take a while, in the meantime, your money is gone. How much is the bank paying you to take that risk?

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