Spot The Odd One Out

Tyler Durden's picture

All of these things are not like the other... except one!


In all the following charts, the green line is the S&P 500...


Crude Oil is diverging...


High Yield Credit is diverging...


US Macro Fundamentals are diverging...


10Y Yields are diverging...


The USD is diverging...


Earnings expectations are diverging...

and Current earnings are diverging...


Current US GDP is diverging...


US GDP expectations are diverging...


and Dr. Copper is diverging...


But... there is one "asset" that is not diverging from the S&P 500...


Still think its "all about the fundamentals"...?


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Zer0head's picture

it's all about the coming devaluation

and we look forward the day when Obama with Yellen and Lew flanking him explains to the sheep why this is a good thing

trust me that day is coming and coming sooner than most think

TruthInSunshine's picture

Bernanke's 'Virtuous Circle' = A bet 'all on' equity "markets"

When (not if) equity markets crash, it's game over. The insiders will have already cashed out and converted their fiat gains into hard, real, truly valuable assets.

Ben Bernanke has now blown the third, and BY FAR the largest (and multi asset class) bubble since 1998.

There will future economic textbooks & studies dedicated to the complete failure that is Ben Bernanke's 'Virtuous Circle' monetary policy lunacy.

hedgeless_horseman's picture




"All right, we're gonna be displacing and falling back like crazy sons of bitches. So you got to be Johnny on the spot with the ammo, or we're dead."




Dealer's picture

HH, you're a funny dude.  I always appreciate your comments.

AlaricBalth's picture

We are becoming Zimbabwe.

"Prices go up because the value of the Fiat paper money is falling as more and more is created....... In Zimbabwe stores did not even have goods on the shelves, people were hungry, there was no water, no electricity, no public transportation, gas was sold on the black market and large quantities of paper money confiscated...and yet the Stock market kept soaring..."

hedgeless_horseman's picture



"It may be necessary to use methods other than constitutional ones."
-Robert Mugabe

flacon's picture

"The Constitution is just a piece of paper" ~ widely attributed to Baraq Obama.

hedgeless_horseman's picture



“We still suffer from not having a Constitution that guarantees its citizens economic rights .”

-Barack Obama

derek_vineyard's picture



i thought the spx diverged 5 years ago and 13 years ago

but i guess im a stupid mother fucker

Manthong's picture

Fedementally it is about the Funding, er, fundamentally it is about the Fed, er Fed Funding er..


fourchan's picture
dont be fooled. 
this situation is the system called the fed reserve. 
the system is working perfectly. 
the system has taken 100 years to bring the only uncontrolled nation to its knees. 

the system is, if you haven't seen it yet. 

to enslave a free people to debt with paper created out of thin air, 
and capture all productive assets through boom and bust cycles the system creates.

DanDaley's picture

"...economic rights."...that's another way of saying "...having access to other people's (i.e., YOUR money).

Bastiat's picture

That was attributed to GW Bush but Obama has carried through nicely.

Race Car Driver's picture

I junked ya for paraphrasing, not knowing the correct author and perpetuating what is seemingly an urban legend to begin with.

Supposedly GW Bush said, "I don't give a god damn, I'm the President and the Commander-in-Chief. Do it my way. Stop throwing the Constitution in my face, it's just a god damn piece of paper!" ... but good luck finding a video - or a witness who actually heard it.

earnyermoney's picture

Only 2 people I can think of who'd down vote this post. Barry and Vallery.

If I had a father, he'd look like Robert Mugabe   Barry Zero

Agent P's picture

Say what you will about Mugabe's economic policies, but you have to admit, the man is one snappy dresser! 

bonderøven-farm ass's picture

Is that a Washington Redskins cap he's sportin'.... ?


Agent P's picture

I could scroll back up and look...or I could stay right here and look at your avatar...hmmm

I woke up's picture

Are you telling us everything?  Oh, and we're also out of coffee

flacon's picture

Should also have the price of COMEX gold diverging. 

TruthInSunshine's picture

Time to replace The Bernank with Mrs. Debtfire?

LawsofPhysics's picture

My guess is that many people have finally "rebalanced" their 401ks to not miss another "kick the can" rally.  Basically saying "fuck it".  TPTB have been pulling the rug out for decades folks, but only once it is profitable for them and all the TBTF banks have "come clean" and can't be prosecuted (notice the JPM "settlements").  They know that there really isn't anything that the sheeple can do anyway.

Joe Davola's picture

Not sure whether the rug will get pulled out or 401k's will be forced into the patriotic 'investment' in O-bonds.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

The problem with America's 401k program is that it is constrained by the choices the Employer made, i.e. which financial firm to use and what palette of investment choices are present with that firm.  The choices are always much smaller than those in an IRA or Roth IRA.  None give you the choice of holding PM bullion.  Only Paper_Gold (gold ETFs), if that.  Given this constraint, we may be willing to expose the Employer's Contribution (to our 401k) to systemic risk in these limited choices, but we are also "stuck" with paper assets in IRAs.  And we can't roll over the 401k into an IRA until we leave the company.

In some countries, you get more flexibility.  In Canada, for example, the 401k equivalent is the RSP (Registered Savings Plan).  It is NOT tied to your employer's choices.  Rather, YOU chose which institution to put this year's RSP contributions with.  They are only the Administrator, but you have universe of Mutual Funds to pick from.  Although they strongly encourage you to diversify, the Foreign Content is limited to X percent.  Don't know the current value, but it used to be around 20% of max Foreign (non-Canadian) content.

The only risk mitigation we have in IRAs is to keep liquid paper assets (USTs, Cash), if we don't like the other paper assets (stocks, bonds, MFs).  I'm sure you know this, but am sharing FBO (for benefit of) other readers.

What is a pity is that schools and Financial Planners/Advisers no longer teach about the wealth pyramid or overall asset allocation:  1/3 Real Estate, 1/3 PM+Cash, 1/3 Stocks+Bonds.  These days they only promote/flog the latter:  paper assets.  Paper assets, for which they industry lives & thrives via the ecosystem of tax-deductible Fees, Commissions, Bonuses, kickbacks, events, parties, treats & junkets.

Even here on ZH we don't talk about the "Allocation by Thirds" much.  Rather, TDs seem to polarize it into a bipolar "Paper vs PM/Bullion" battle.  Maybe that's where other sites (advertising here) complement ZH for investment purposes?

StandardDeviant's picture

For the Brits in the crowd: Be aware that you can hold allocated gold bullion in a SIPP (Self-Invested Pension Plan).

"Allocated" means that it has to remain in the vault; you can't take it home with you on your leaky boat.  However, it's not just a paper claim on some undifferentiated pile which may or may not exist.  There are specific, numbered bars allocated to your account, and you can arrange to go and view them in person if you wish.

Not as good as holding the real thing, obviously, as it's a sitting duck for legalised theft by a desperate government if TS well and truly HTF - just look at what happened in Poland.  But it could be useful as an inflation hedge, at any rate.

Overfed's picture

Go to a coin shop and buy gold/silver with cashie-munney. Then take it home in your leaky-boaty.

StandardDeviant's picture

Oh, and for the Canadians: As I hope you know by now, the current foreign content limit in an RRSP is 100%.  The gov't there did away with the 20% foreign content restriction back in 2005.

falak pema's picture

There are those who have as mission to be Johnny at the Alamo of fiat temple and then there are the POLITICIANS who are the biggest turncoats in God's world when the wind turns :

Awesome, about turn for a political shill who sat on Carlyle's Corporate Board in those Halcyon years before 2008...

Mr Major you deserve the medal of dis-honour, now playing as TOry's odd man out; to soothe your conscience.

Next we know Tony Blair will tell us the US strategy in Syria is undoing all the good work he did in Iraq/Afgh with GWB.

"I agree with Bandar", anything to stay in the buzz and the gravy that goes with it. 

McMolotov's picture

Can we really call Bernanke's Virtuous Circle Jerk 'lunacy' if it works exactly as intended? As you say, when the SHTF, "the insiders will have already cashed out and converted their fiat gains into hard, real, truly valuable assets." This is a feature, not a bug. It seems like lunacy to us, but that's only because we aren't the insiders. We're the ones being screwed.

What we're witnessing is the equivalent of Washington's alleged statement about the last act of a government being the looting of the treasury. Since we've morphed into a fascist/corporatist state, it's a coordinated effort between the Fed and well-connected banks and corporations to steal everything that's not nailed down. The current system is dying (though it's taking longer than many of us thought possible), and the insiders are now positioning themselves to maintain control over the next one.

NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re; and the insiders are now positioning themselves to maintain control over the next one

Exactly right.   And, if "the insiders" ran the last system and they are going to run the "next system" then (really) it's been the same system for about 10000+ years.

We are simply watching the smartest-n-savviest people screwing the clueless dumbasses.   The historians and semi-autistic economists - who attempt to explain the behavior of winning sociopaths with very long books - label the different eras as different systems which just confuses the dumbasses more.  

Survivial of the fittest doesn't always work-out like the young male dumbasses think it will.

SilverIsKing's picture

Mugabe is still running the show in Zimbabwe so you sir, are correct.

bank guy in Brussels's picture

That's too grim ... in some places and some times, life is pretty okay for most or all people for a good long while

In north-western Continental Europe, life is still pretty much ... paradise

Almost no one in jail here, not much crime, zero poverty among legal residents, everyone has health care, little fear of gov't the police lawyers or courts ... great food, modest cost of living, lots of people look attractive ... yes and we even own guns too here (like my .45 pistol, a favourite at the local Brussels shooting club) ... in Belgium 1 out of every 140 of us is a millionaire (vs in the USA 1 out of 140 is in prison, ha !)

It has been that way here for decades ... one can argue that it is unsustainable and we will 'blow up' too ... but we have had a good long run of relative paradise, since the 1950s ...

There have been ups and downs in civilisations ... like for example there seems to have been quite a lost 'golden age' in the Buddhist cultures of Northern India, from about 600 to 1100 CE ... countries with no death penalty, great gentleness and tolerance, and even an advanced Kama Sutra view of sexuality ... they focused too much on spirituality and fell to Muslim invaders ... but there had been a great university at Nalanda, India, for about 1,700 years !

It seems like the USA had a 'golden age' where life was really good even for many in the working class ... tho in the USA, it was always incomplete with many 'left out' sectors ... plus the USA was always re-involved in some deep genocidal shite ... they went from killing Native Americans to a civil war on each other to killing hundreds of thousands of Filipinos in the 1890s - 1900s etc ... but at least internally, US maybe had some days when it seemed like a good place to live

It is hard to be optimistic in fascist America now, but big chunks of the world (Latin America, southeast Asia) have optimism, whereas in our corner of Continental Europe we see a merely genteel decline amid our comfortable museum ... we will of course have to get re-sorted after the euro blows up (quite soon)

Race Car Driver's picture

> but we have had a good long run of relative paradise, since the 1950s ...

Paradise!? Since the '50's, you say!? What a long time indeed! Most marriages don't even last that long! Why, that's even before the Beatles!


gmrpeabody's picture

"plus the USA was always re-involved in some deep genocidal shite ... they went from killing Native Americans to a civil war on each other to killing hundreds of thousands of Filipinos in the 1890s - 1900s etc ... but at least internally, US maybe had some days when it seemed like a good place to live"

Yes, indeed. Seems I remember them getting involved saving your useless asses a while back also.

prains's picture

Stalingrad cleared the 6th Army off the map, all you guys had to contend with was some left over panzer divisions and second rate german rear guard troops. It was a foregone conclusion from the start and you still almost fucked it up, it took you months and if the tables were turned the Germans could have done it in weeks with that amount of men and material. Just keep the self back slapping down to a dull roar is all. 

LFMayor's picture

yeah, your hero stalin and his unwashed scumbag army of rapists is what saved us all.


Tall Tom's picture

The US Army in action...Raping a 14 Year Old Iraq Girl and murdering her and her parents. PEDOPHILES. SCUMBAGS.


Do you have anything like that on the Soviet Army? (Now I would not put that past them as THEY ARE NO DIFFERENT.)


But save me the Bullshit about how we are so great so I do not have to throw this garbage...IN YOUR FACE.

Overfed's picture

Coming soon to the US via the DHS/FBI einsatzgruppen.

LFMayor's picture

You dumb fuck. Some grainy, doctored footage that makes a 60's stag film look like James Cameron produced it?  that's your EVIDENCE. 

And we're supposed to compare this amatuer shit to the rape of Ukraine. Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania. Poland and half of Germany.

It has to be true because it's on the internet, right?  Weapons, gear non standardized.  This is some leftist douche idea of how "operators" "operate".  It has about as much validity as calling Apocolypse Now a documentary about Vietnam.

I hunger for the day when we can finally quit arguing over the webs and take this out into the open.  

Row Well Number 41's picture

Thanks, but I'll chalk that up to another Russian Winter.  Russians don't kill armies their Winters do.


css1971's picture

Good generals use the environment to best advantage. The Russians knew exactly what would happen when winter came around. Happens to every jumped up little Bonaparte who has tried to invade.

PivotalTrades's picture

The victory over Nazi Germany was achieved through the economic power of the United States and the lives of millions of Soviets, who for reasons that defy logic made the ultimate sacrifice to keep in power a regime as brutal as their Nazi enemy.

BlobbyBlueBland's picture

By all metrics, vastly more brutal. Nazis are touted as "the worst regime EVER" when in reality they're a drop in the bucket compared to some of the other atrocities committed in the 20th century.

Why don't we ever hear in our textbooks, memorials, museums, and movies how destructive the Communist regimes were? We only hear about the poor jews, who were the ONLY victims of WWII (/sarc) and nobody else suffered. Marinate on that a bit and I'm sure you'll come to the right conclusion. 

LFMayor's picture

I believe you're correct... it was that whole genocidal killing of hundreds of thousands of defenseless Nazis, or something.  It happened a long time ago though, way before this pastoral, peaceful bliss they've been enjoying since the 1950's.

Singelguy's picture

How many of those millionaires are crooks working for the EU in Brussels?

MachoMan's picture

Bingo...  you'll get down voted from all the free market capitalists and communists alike...  but the proof is in the pudding.

Anusocracy's picture

You are missing the point that the free market functions by forcing the businesses to please the customer. The opposite is true with government, where the 'customer' is forced to obey those in charge, thereby bringing out the very worst behaviors in government sociopaths.

MachoMan's picture

You speak of the free market as if it's a god or a person who can dictate things...  no, in "free market" capitalism, there is still a need for a market regulator to ensure that the consolidation of power does not lead to punitive or inefficient outcomes by monopolists (the "sociopaths" aren't just in the government; that word is also a clinical term that people throw around as if it wasn't a clinical term...).  There is NEVER a perfect harmony between all market participants whereby perfect competition is realized and the consumer reaps the benefits from market participants cutting themselves (and their profits) to the bone.  Self interest demands that rational actors wouldn't be caught dead working for free for the benefit of others.  The best we can get is some half-assed, broke dick version of capitalism because the market (rational actors) will not allow anything more competitive.  Further, a vice ensues in that the larger the market regulator, the more centralized power there is to corrupt...  which is always corrupted.

Capitalism is the cleanest dirty shirt in the basket, but I'm not sure we ought to feel great for wearing it.

GeorgeHayduke's picture

"Survivial of the fittest doesn't always work-out like the young male dumbasses think it will."

Good point. Sometimes the fittest is someone who can out think the crowd rather than pummel them into submission.

Also, "the insiders" have the ability to get the herd fighting amongst themselves in a "survival of the fittest" mentality rather than looking upward to their owners and seeing them as the target of their anger. It's amazing how well that propaganda mill works, yet it does again and again as the mob members believe they too will become one of the elites one day. That mentality is fully ingrained into the current system and works wonderfully for the owners and will continue to do so.