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Spot The Odd One Out
All of these things are not like the other... except one!
In all the following charts, the green line is the S&P 500...
Crude Oil is diverging...
High Yield Credit is diverging...
US Macro Fundamentals are diverging...
10Y Yields are diverging...
The USD is diverging...
Earnings expectations are diverging...
and Current earnings are diverging...
Current US GDP is diverging...
US GDP expectations are diverging...
and Dr. Copper is diverging...
But... there is one "asset" that is not diverging from the S&P 500...
Still think its "all about the fundamentals"...?
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I think they will pay out the full guaranteed insured amount.........before the current century comes to a close.
Yep, that or government bonds/IOUs/eternal bonds.
Don't worry about it, it's nothing serious, just a little marketing ploy to make you feel safer. Go ahead and give them all your wifes money.
We don't see any problem here.
Sincerly,
Ben Shalom and Larry Yellen
Personal bank account balances of those who work in the POMO investment institutions, their PM cache, and real estate portfolios (maybe even the length of their new yachts) are probably converging with the Fed's balance sheet.
Every new reality seems like hyperbole.
Crude will continue to decline...at least until the sheeple feel they have more money to spend for Christmas presents...then crude and everything else will take off again by January 1
It's obvious that Crude, HY, US Macro, 10Y, USD, Fwd EPS, Current EPS, GDP, and Copper are about to rally!
Right?!
Right??!!
Right???!!!
Bitcoin just broke through $200. I believe that only a small fraction of this can be attributed to the fall in the USD index. But why bitcoins instead of PM's (though those made an impressive leap this morning as well). My feeling is that it has to do with currency controls foreshadowed by the Morgue and soon to be common practice backed by USSA banking regulation. Also it appears that the central banksters so far seem unable to manipulate bitcoin through massive naked shorting and that it more accurately reflects the watering down of the major currencies, not just the dollar, but against actual purchasing power. I currently do not own any bitcoin but I am starting to think about it once again.
Interesting thoughts. I don't think it's about currency controls, I think that thanks to the FBI, criminals are now seeing it as a good method for illegal payments which has been increasing demand for bitcoin.
However there are many other altcoins (e.g. LiteCoin) that all "work" (although aren't as well known and easy to buy and sell). But if banks start restricting money transfers, you can be sure that availability of virtual coins will become much better. That's why I wouldn't acquire any (additional) BTC right now.
Maybe XenoFrog can chip in his 5 satoshis?
It's a good point. Drug traders are having a hell of a time moving their cash around. Maybe they are taking a page out of Silk Roads book.
As NSA style cyber fascism grows could the underground economy be next to widespread btc adoption. Then it would be off to the races. I'm gambling on that and that tptb won't find a way to fuck up btc, cause they just have to give that a good try.
Nothing against cyber-currencies like Bitcoin, but I want to make it clear that it is a CURRENCY, not Money.
Although both are Mediums of Exchange that have Fungible and Divisible Units, Currency (fiat) is not, Not, NOT an inherent "Store of Value" due to its own 'essence'. It has a bestowed or fiat "store of value", as its ever-changing price indicates.
IOW, I'm happy use it (as a private and untraceable currency) to buy/rent goods & services, but I do not intend to "invest" in it, given its price volatility. And when I add the "IT gymnastics" I have to do to use it, and add the Dollar-value of my time to "fuck around" with it, and then hunt for real stuff I buy or pay for, the overall "Barrier to Usage" is so high, that it'll be a while before I get back in the Cyber-Currency saddle. And don't even get me going on the various "services" popping up that claim to make this painful experience more pleasant and faster -- because you end up (a) sacrificing the very privacy you tried to gain (when dealing with what are typically US fucking entities), and you also end up paying Fees (that you don't have with Cash).
But to each his own. "Invest" (speculate!) or shill away, if you wish. For now, Cash and PM work better for me -- since I'm not trying to buy or move contraband, or move tons of PM under the radar of Big Bro/Ho.
Liquid money in gold, silver, btc one third of each. Anything can happen to what will be recognized as money now. Invest in things that maintain tradable value (preserve principal first) and throw off small but safe ROI, i.e. real estate. Money is not an investment, just a wealth transition mechanism that is particularly risky these days. Everything to do with wealth storage is dangerous now. I've really been wondering whats moving btc up lately, something meaningful must be going on under the rug.
Looks like the US dollar is getting crushed. With all the QE and Janet Yellen it's continuing downward strongly.
Free-falling.
Well, everyone is aware that it is QE creating bubbles in stock markets and treasuries in the U.S and the rest of the world. How would one go about to prove it, rather than simple charts showing correlation? Is there any way one can show that banks are actually using their cash reserves as collateral to speculate in all the markets?
Please do not say that it is obvious, because it is not. There is no relationship between a bank's reserves and its lending decisions anyway, banks first lend and then look for reserves. And these excess reserves arise as a natural outcome of the quantitative easing, as shown here.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr380.pdf
The question is how does one prove that these excess cash reserves are leading the bubbles all over the world?
You are asking what is the transmission mechanism from QE to the S&P. I ask the same thing. We know the S&P gains $3 in market cap for each $1 put on the Fed's balance sheet, but why? (1) It could be there is some off-balance sheet shadow banking loophole that allows primary dealers to speculate with bank deposits. (2) It could simply be a matter of TINA. By taking away yield producing bonds, the owners of those deposits put them into stocks. (3) It could be something else that we can't think of.
But you can be sure of one thing. The Fed and its key insiders understand the transmission mechanism even if they don't talk about it in public. They have the power to track private financial flows. We don't.
The Fed's balance sheet is the only fundimental that is left.
Total clampdown and no-fly zones at the borders in 3... 2... 1!
Let nobody above the rank of junior file clerk in the federal and state governments escape judgment and justice when the Shit Hits The Fan.
free iphone for every mother fucker that signs up for O care!!
The graphs are not compelling. Several only go back a few weeks. In 3 of them, the diverge started two weeks ago, and the final graph only reconverges in the last two weeks. If the author had written this same exact article just two weeks ago and used consistent time scales across them, then the these graphs would have contradicted his thesis as often as supporting it.
and yet ... the conclusion is right. The analysis needs different graphs - like fultime workers vs. population.
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