This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Dow 20,000 (Or 5,000) Next?
Which comes first, Dow 20,000 or Dow 5,000... and when?
DOW 20,000?
with Special Guest LANCE ROBERTS
Principal of STA Wealth Management
& Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long
20 Minutes, 25 Slides
In Part I of this multi part series we ask Lance Roberts whether he sees DOW 20,000 or DOW 5,000 ahead, and when?
The economics and fundamentals overwhelmingly suggest the US equity market is now being driven solely by Federal Reserve liquidity injections.
The only way Lance can see DOW 20,000 is to see the market as being in stage 3 of a classic 'blowoff' market cycle:
- Phase 1: What Bull Market? Just A Bounce Before The Next Crash.
- Phase 2: I Missed The Bottom So I Will Wait For A Pullback.
- Phase 3: Market Is Going Up Forever, Just Get On And Ride.
He argues convincingly that Bull Markets don't start from these levels and with these market metrics. His Economic Output Composite Index supports this view.
Listen as Lance kicks-off this discussion with Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long, who share their views as the three go around the table outlining out their respective views (Part II - Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long).
»
- 28240 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
This is a joke question. We all know the answer. Dow 36K next year.
Who cares anymore?
As long as they keep using the antiquated phrase "markets" they're never going to understand what's going on. Applying broken market metrics to this mess is a fools game.
Not a "market" - Things formely known as "markets" (bond, FX, equity, commodity, RE/CRE etc.) are simply propaganda tools now.
Where is the ZH story on Steve Lies-man's apology regarding Ted Cruz and Mexican music???
The only way to win is just not to play. Eventually people who can find a way, will.
This dufus might end up just a bit off in the timing, but right (for all the wrong reasons).
It’s enough to make a reasonable person want to off himself.
http://www.businessinsider.com/james-altucher-dow-20000-2011-7
I called the last debacle on August 2007...I wrote on a piece of paper for my son, DOW 6000 2Q 2009. What happened in 2009 class?
In March DOW = 6450...
Here is my not so BOLD prediction now:
Feb-May 2014 DOW 7000....then lookout below!!!! I could be off by a few months, maybe even into the fall, after mid-term elections. I am not so confident in the timing this time, as I've been monkeyhammered by Ben every time I make a move, the fucker!
Money printing fundamentally changes the rules of the game. There needn't be another market crash now until the entire system implodes and even then if you are short and make a million bucks on paper your broker probably won't even pay up.
I know people often use the phrase 'this time is different' but when the rule of law breaks down, crime goes unpunished and central banks are prepared to destroy the currency by unlimited printing then you have crossed the rubicon into 'this time IS different'.
It's gonna be shown just after Ted apologizes for suggesting Liesman have a tacky German Jew barmitzva music accompaniment
the thumb of the gov and other non-market entities tipping the scale of those trying to determine a fair price btwn a seller / buyer has been replaced by these entities entirely removing buyers and/or sellers (w/ actual capital) to parties on one or both sides w/ monopoly money...how can a fair price be set, how can a "market" exist where money is openly counterfitted???
Prices are SET (up and down) as a matter of Fed (et al) policy - they are not a process of DISCOVERY (ie, a "market").
CNBC and all of TV and Hollywood is for retards who support the regime. I am amazed at the number of morons on ZH who still watch TV. If you are a conservative and think Fox is your friend then you are as dumb as the libturds.
Maybe neither?
.
Maybe a game changer that will freeze it somewhere in the middle as the world is coping with some massive stress?
'Well, wouldnt that take the dow, down then?' -I dont know man, im just thinking out loud...ill leave it to the ZedHed financial experts on here:)
.
But at least we now have all the bases covered...
freddie, it MEANS so much coming from a guy who has a TV star (chuck norris) as an avatar
<- Chuck Norris is better at martial arts
<- Chuck Norris is better at acting
chuck norris is better
period
better than oblahblah
better than sebilious
better than schumer
better than bloomberg
better than katy perry
better than kim kardashian
better than the phillies
Chuck norris isnt better, everything is just worse.
lololololol
Amen! I gave up TV 4 years ago. The first 2 weeks were tough but now I can't stand to be near a TV. Nothing but mindless bull shit.
There is really little difference between TV and being in any semi urban area these days. Advertising, propaganda, and stupidity are served up in full portions wether you are sitting in your living room or walking thru the mall or hell, even driving down the freeway. At least you choose what flavor of brain-numbing propaganda you get on TV.
No one cares about the political correctness staged on national TV. It’s all a part of the propaganda agenda. Once again, it backfired.
It's a new Steve Liesman song: Let's all get drunk and screw y'all!
Correct. As I've said here before -- it's not a "market" -- it's a crime scene.
They should call them "trading platforms" instead of markets.
20,000 and a dollar index of 0.20000
I care. I'm short the S&P. I remember my former hero Nassim Taleb advising to short the S&P, and also advised emphatically, "Every human being should short U.S. Treasuries." I did both. And I have been bleeding ever since.
With the FED QE, I see DOW 1 TRILLION in 5 years
Please. Your vision is weak. DOW 5 quadrillion in 3 years!
Ask the Fed, they're in charge and responsible for all these fucked up markets. When all these fabricated bubbles explode, the boom will be heard in outer space.
Anyone remember when an Almond Joy candy bar used to cost $0.10 ?
So the stock market goes to 20,000 and everyone is rich, yet still can't afford to buy the things in life they need.
Google cursing fish cafepress
I was at the inlaws a couple weeks ago. The topic then turned to COL, and how everything was going up in price and such. I asked them "why do you think that is?" Their answer - around some historical notion that prices always rise - was that "its just the way it is", without really understanding what the "way" is. And the one thing for sure, was that, in their opinion, monetary policy had nothing to do with it. I left the room and had a smoke.
ever notice all our families are fucking idiots?
ARRRRG!!!! Thick as bricks, I tell ya. I have lost a few family and many a friend, trying to open eyes, alas it is all I can to do warn.
Isn't the old saying, of being a watchman: If you are a watchman and you see trouble, and tell the people, and they do nothing, let it be on their heads, the consequences. If you are a watchman and you see trouble, and don't tell people of it, then let it be on your head, the consequences.
So, I guess I will still warn as I can, let the chips fall where they may...prepare accrodingly! This ship is gonna blow, soon enough!
the old watchman paraphrase is from Ezekiel 33--
http://www.blueletterbible.org/Bible.cfm?b=Eze&c=33&v=6&t=KJV#s=835006
First Chart is all that matters!
http://j.people.com.cn/94474/8432664.html
DeAmericanization in progress. A very fine trade network potential. ASEAN, Australia, China, Russia
http://www.northjersey.com/news/international/227003271_It_s_China_s_mom...
"the Eastern Hemisphere seeking an alternative to the USDollar in trade and a diversification away from the USTreasury Bond in banking reserves. The nations which actively depart the USDollar Sphere will survive, the others to fall into the De-industrialized Third World. Many are the forces within the inner circle and along the periphery. The Gold Trade Standard, enforced largely by China & Russia, supplied by the BRICS Bank which will manage the conversion of USTBonds to Gold bullion, will manifest the Paradigm Shift."--Jim Willie
THAT, my friend, is the NUMBER ONE thing we have to keep an eye on - RESERVE Status! If we lose that, holy devaluation, Batman!
<=== 20,000
<=== 5,000
This bad boy is on the cusp of crash, the razor of wreck, the tip of toast, QE or not - it's gonna collapse on it's own weight; but that's the plan, isn't it obuma, bernankifisky? Communists implants.
At these odds, we can cut out the Bla, Bla, Bla and get right to the Moral:
BTMFATH! BTMFATH! BTMFATH! BTMFATH! BTMFATH! BTMFATH! BTMFATH! Then, cash in and retire.
Do you get me now?
You had me until "Then, cash in and retire>>>" There is no getting out of this game...once you are in, you are in for life...that is the pact of the ponzi.
Yellen is going to swamp the world with USD. 36K may be an underestimate.
But will the world want them? The answer is nyet.
People are creatures of habit. That is how shit happens.
I'm planning to collect the whole set, to put next to my framed zim dollars.
The only thing is, how many notes will there be?
When you're talking swamps one must look out for alligators!
It's not exactly 2008 anymore, with a New Messiah president with all the answers, and a Princeton PhD economist with all the answers....it's 5 years later and their poiicies are deemed failures, so now we get Nurse Ratchet and she'll pump it up and everyone will believe HER now?
I doubt it.
DOW 5000 Rainbow Skittles
Now way, Skittles are tangible and can be counted.
DOW 20,000 Secret Unicorn Tears
Moar!
Is there even doubt about this? QE forever, Dow only goes up. It'll really go up once the USD loses reserve currency status.
http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/4ed0df50eab8ea7e63000018/weimar...
I think we go Zimbabwe. Dow up, US Dollar shit canned. Debt goes absolutely parabolic (is already).
The endgame cometh.
Seems to be just about the only Exit Door left available.
Was there wage growth in Zimbabwe that caused hyperinflation? Because that does not exist here.
I have read that after the HI in Zimbabwe really took off, then the serious trade was all in dollars. But when the dollar shitcans, there won't be any other fiat to pick up the slack.
Not really, people just switched to alternative currencies. In addition to the dollar, there was a boom in micro-level gold mining -- people would pan for gold for the entire day to buy one meal: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3LdNxV0yPM
Lever up a FED balance sheet of 20 trillion and Dow should easily hit 100,000,after all, freely printed currency is money.
agreed that's easy.
36K June 4 '14 16:00
40K SEPT 8 '14 10: 00
that 5K was a typo right? 50K Dec 25 12:00
The farthest out I can see SPY calls is the $255 strike for Dec 2015. Get em while they're hot for just 38 cents!
Those of us that believe we have rampant inflation are not surprised that prices for stocks are rising....of course it takes more dollars to buy the same assets.
The warning sign is that earnings are not climbing just as fast.
<-- Dow -.44% BTFD
<-- Sell Mortimer
It'll be 5000 first, on a really bad traffic day while Ben/Janet's helicopter is in the shop. It'll hit 20,000 later the same day to make up for it.
I just want to know if I can make 20, 000 per day or 200, 000 per day next year
Its a suckers market. We can prove this by shutting down the monthly Fed buyback purchases.
20k first, then 5k
On the same day.
I want that DOW 20,000 hat.
no POMO friday, BTFATH!
Does it really matter? Either way a loaf of bread is going to be a hell of a lot more expensive.
In the future, hipsters will [not be around to] say "eating? That's so retro!"
20k, 5k, all meaningless NOMINAL numbers. Price the market in gold or silver for REAL numbers. Everything else is worthless bullshit.
no brainer 20000 march 2015
At the current rate of QE the DOW should hit 20K before Oct 2014.
Must increase bond and mbs buying, must get 10 year treasury back below 2%, must help housing, must help consumer, must pint MOOOOOAAARRRR!
The real question is:
Will the doomers be able maintain their sanity as the wise people all around them constantly talk about the number of zeroes on their 401k statements?
Now that is MDB-worthy!
The answer is -- neither. Stock markets will also collapse when the dollar and the US Economy collapse. My guess is that the markets close their doors and liquidate. The big banks will get their full cuts, then the retirement accounts and individual accounts will get pennies on the dollar. It will be the last rape of the middle class.
Oh for now why don't we just call it the 'Bernanke Jones', and next year it'll be known as the 'Yellen Jones'..... no need to pussyfoot around this, really!!!!
And how about we just price it in oil, metals or anything that's not perishable instead of that fiat wallpaper.
Okay, what the Hell; I'll play.
On the grounds that hitting 20,000 is probably two years or so away, I'm gonna bet that it goes to 5,000.
I just don't think we've got two years left on this Frankenstein monster of an economy.
Of course, The Benenator will prolly win this round, too. Damn; I hate that when that happens!
Sidekick Yellen (Potatogirl?) will set things into overdrive.
dow 20,000.
when- tomm
news that brings us to it- world war 3 is not starting tomm
5,000 would assume that some semblance of fundamentals is allowed, so 20,000 it shall be.
Wonderful. They can finally say it with a straight face. 'Lowest economic growth in recorded history. Everyone dependent on the FED. Since 2009, steady economic downturn. FED pump to Dow 20,000 because of the never ending liquidity trap.'
Sounds about right.
I predict some serious pain from the FED. And then Dow 20,000 and beyond.
"Which comes first, Dow 20,000 or Dow 5,000... and when?"
Who cares?
"Please God...please...DOW 5,000 first...please lay waste to the Satanic forces at work on Wall Street and in Washington. Please dear Lord, bankers and their politician lackeys jumping off of high rises or hanging from lamp posts. I can't take much more. Amen."
Almost time for the 3PM ramp!!
Weimar Germany may serve as a source of information as to where the market and the value of the $ are headed:
http://www.nowandfutures.com/us_weimar.html
MOAR Plunge Control.....
...We don't need no stinking Plunge Control.
Is there a difference? Either would be a sign that the system has collapsed.
Equity nominal prices have nothing to do with earnings or fundamentals. All about repo financing and stealth funneling of treasury capital to the banks. i.e. zero interest rates, Zero Velocity of Money = higher and higher nominal asset prices. This is not a zero sum game, somebody does not win and somebody does not lose, at least not yet. The winners are those highest in this pyramid scheme as always and the losers are not only this generation but all future generations. I don't think 20k is correct for the Dow, I think 30k is more like it, but 2 things need, I mean will have to happen:
1. QE will have to be slowly increased from $85bln, as nominal prices move higher, 85bln purchases less and less
2. Interest Rates or should I say FED FUNDS will never rise from current levels, see $17trn in debt and never going down, equals the neccesity for lower and lower rates, there is no bubble in bonds, if there is one fundamental thing left, that is as debt loads go higher, govt rates must move lower, there is a reason the amount of interest on our debt has stayed the same, even though the actual debt level has increased 3x
and finally when all is said and done and China and all the other EM economies are sick of our greatest export inflation, they will form a new currency alliance, backed by hard money like gold and the FED FUNDS rate will be forced higher than the 10yr Treasury rate, then and only then will equities collapse like they have all the times prior. So until short term funding is higher than mid term coupons, its BUY BUY BUY
So stop thinking that time is on your side, it is not, time stops for no one, but no one does a better time at lulling everyone to eat the lotus flower than the FED and main stream media, all the naysayers and fundamentalists will continue to disavow the market ramp, but in doing so they are missing the easiest money ever made. Enjoy it while it lasts though, as zerohedges motto states, we are all dead in the long run!
Why stop at 20,000? Why not 100,000?
Lets put it this way 1$ = 1Cent dollar stocks are the new penny stocks and the penny stocks of today amount to people trying to sell their business and get out of business. (make money selling shares then letting it bust)
To those saying it does not matter: what is your major malfunction? Of course it matters. I keep my beer money fund in equities. Dow 20,000 means the good stuff, Czech Pilsners, Belgium Whites, some tasty Porters. Dow 5,000 means Bud Light with a lime, a fucking lime.
Are you people out of your minds?
A serious question would be: What's first: Dow 20000 or Nasdaq 5000?
If stocks would start to dip seriously the QE4Eva would be raised, so there is no worry here that anything short of a revolution would allow a different outcome.
Dow 20000 first. The (lame and worthless) PTB seem to have total control over the stock market average at this point, so why let it drop? Maybe they'll see a reason eventually, but I can't imagine what that'd be.
This will not end well. Well, when will it end?
80% correlation between FED QE and market levels, wow.
Where else can you make money ?
DOW 20000.
http://scharts.co/1cYOvyH
I would peg the peak for SPY=180 which I would bet puts the DOW peak to 16,500.
http://flic.kr/p/enJ7Cs
November 14, 1923Note to self:
the whole world is in an ever increasing Stimulus Bubble that will eventually pop.
Australia just has raised their "Debt Ceiling" from 200 Billion a year to 500 Billion.
The whole world seems addicted to more QE,
more "cheap Credit" (Debt) and more "free" Stimulus (Debt)
and the inherent Currency devaluation all this brings-
what in this World has real and true Value ?
hm....
Just wait until the great unwashed start paying for 0bamacare and corporate earnings goes to shit.
Just wait until the great unwashed start paying for 0bamacare and corporate earnings goes to shit.
never hear much about "but but there are a Quadrillion in derivatives!" anymore...
because it does. not. matter at all anymore...
except for "Hey Momz, ain't I gotz no Brobama Insurance and shit or what?"
And Uncle Janet.
That's what the world is now broken down to. the gum flappers at cnbs must be deeply medicated to keep from losing it, the daily grind of absolute irrelevance.
Fuck You Congress
Looks like Dow 20,000 on Jan 16 or so. What do you expect from the blow off top? Might be Dow 30,000 by March. At some point the crash will rip off your face.
But gas will be 10/gal or unavailable, and the supermarket shelves will be bare, and you will be running to the bank to cash your paychek and run to the store before the purchasing power drops by half.
The crash will be epic. Historic. Keep a diary so you can tell your grandchildren. Because life will go on for most of us.
Lazlo got the year wrong but probably pegged the price. QE will be increased and will not stop for a long time (if it did the house of cards comes down)
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/laszlo-birinyis-2800-sp-prediction-september-14-2013