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Earnings Reality In One Chart
Only 38% of S&P 500 companies that have reported have beaten revenue expectations - compared to a historical average of around 46%. As Bloomberg notes, Q3 2013 will be the first time for 3 consecutive quarters of sub-50% meeting expectations since their records began. Earnings are not much better having seen a slide in performance relative to expectations for 4 quarters now. It seems the hockey-stick of H2 2013 earnings hope that we so vociferously pointed out as ridiculous early in the year is indeed far too high and combined with valuations (as we noted here) that are stretched (Price-to-Sales at 1.6x is around twice the norma since the 1990s) it suggests that any hint of a taper will remove the only leg left for stocks - that of hope-based multiple expansion.
Source: Bloomberg
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What, no more hopium? Well damn. I'm taking my football and going home.
You can keep your football....but you'll have to pony up the fine.
Dear ZH -- If you keep making the message simpler, how am I supposed to keep ignoring it?!
Fingers in the ears while chanting NAA NAA NAA seems to work for me.
This fakery will become NORMAL in a few years and people pointing them out will be called "Conspiracy Theorists".
The actual term applied to those telling the truth will be 'terrorists'. The truth is, you see, terrifying, and the sheeple must not be aroused by bad news.
Earnings Shmearnings! ....With Saudi Arabia breaking Diplomatic ties w/ America overnight, this could be the "Black Swan/Arch Duke Ferdinand" Moment/Event which leads to WW3. America cannot/will not, allow the US Dollar to lose its world currency reserve status. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2472680/Saudi-Arabia-severs-dipl...
Better get Obama over there to bow to them again mucho pronto.
His bowing indicated his weakness which wasn't lost on them. I'm sure they talked about that for some time afterwards.
So the USA, by failing to be Bandar's bitch and start a war at his urging, has led to Bandar bin Sulkin'?
If they cannot allow it,how come they allowed the Saudi's to make the first big step? This is unheard of and shows that in reality the US can't do anything about it. Which was already obvious from the fact that Obozo couldn't even organize a pathetic air-based "police action" in Syria.
The Us will not have a choice...like the Brits did not.
Capital flows to the highest returns and the world will not invest it earned wealth into a depreciating/joke currency.
All empires fall..Rome, the Ottamans, Britain etc thru mis-mamagement , arrogance and corruption.The US will be no different except that its massive corruption in Washington and Wall St mean its Empire will be one of the shortest in Human History.
Very sad though.The World will be a darker place.
The Founding Fathers were giants , as was Lincoln, Jefferson etc.They were men of principle.The current leaders are marketers and spivs.Leaders who cannot be trusted are Leaders who are doomed to fail.
This is bullish in the "new normal".
Do "earnings" matter in a mark to fantasy world? No. There is no "market", only cronies and central bank largess...
hedge accordingly.
Lower expectations again and problem solved. Duh.
Doesn't a historical average of 46% imply some analyst bias? edit: NVM. Need to look at does not meet and meets expectations.Edit: strike all that going back to bed.
Can't they redefine what "earnings" are like they do for the CPI and GDP? Or maybe lie about earnings because this is serious!
The only things selling well are Guns, Ammo, Lotto Scratch-Off tickets, Grand Theft Auto V and Duck Dynasty T-Shirts. Stores are already leaking Black Friday Ads. And Black Friday is starting on Thanksgiving for many stores now. There's a smell of desperation in the air at most retailers.
http://bfads.net/
http://blackfriday.com/
On Obama's first day in office he had two choices. Fix the economy or screw everyone with super expensive healthcare.
Fortunately he chose the latter.
I heard, unofficially of course, that even politicians are going to be on sale earlier than usual this year.
Must be great to have something to sell that you never run out of yet is always in demand.
The PAth is clear to all now.
Buy the DJIA for all it worth.The Central Planners see no alternative and will not allow Deflation.
So...cuurency devaluation all the way.So buy assets.Any assets.
It will work...except for the 99% who will be decimated.
Someone else can deal with that in 5-10 years time though.
Meanwhile.Make money and buy stocks, gold and energy...and anything that China wants.
Anyone who does not see this clear road ahead now is a complete muppet.
Yellen Yellen she my gal !!!
Is a piece of paper with $spx written on it an asset?
Earnings are so "yesterday". The only thing that counts today is standing where the government money spout is pouring cash into your pockets.
The new box of Keebler Crackers is an 1/8 smaller.
Good thing they lower the bar every month..... could you imagine how bullish it would be if 90 percent of them missed?
QE4EVA2 Equity purchases anyone?