Why We Should All Worry About CAT's Earnings

Tyler Durden's picture


It's different this time, right... even the CAT CEO found a silver lining of hope for the future (admittedly 5,10, 200 years in the future), but, the sad reality is we have seen exactly this kind of disconnect between CAT's idiocyncratic revenues and world GDP before... and it didn't end well...



h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

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Wed, 10/23/2013 - 19:53 | 4084589 HedgeAccordingly
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Hard to keep a cat down.. they always land on their feet......


? Gary empathizes with Dimon http://hedge.ly/1h9P4Za

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 20:14 | 4084640 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

I don't need a tractor.  I have an iPhone.  If I need to move dirt or dig a big hole in the ground, there's an app for that.  If I need to build a road, there's an app for that.

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 20:20 | 4084654 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture


Wed, 10/23/2013 - 21:16 | 4084787 VD
VD's picture

today looks helluva lot worse than 2007 as per above; but QE4EVA wasn't in play back then...

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 20:28 | 4084671 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

You didn't build that road...

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 21:01 | 4084755 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

You didn't build that app...

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 21:07 | 4084769 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Collapsing revenues.

Margins slipping away.

Sales slowing.

In lieu of real demand, there's Ben Bernanke ready to print to infinity...priceless.

There's nothing QE can't buy, for everything else, there's MOAR QE

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 01:36 | 4085160 TheWord
TheWord's picture

You didn't build that healthcare.gov website........Ah, shit!  I knew we forgot something!

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 04:39 | 4085366 Seer
Seer's picture

I experienced HARD reality recently.  I'd broke my tractor!  It's now fixed.  And I still don't have iShit...

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 09:15 | 4085767 csmith
csmith's picture

Ben...get busy, talk with XONE or DDD and PRINT me an 'effing tractor. A D8 preferably...

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 20:40 | 4084698 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Because cats always land on their feet, and buttered bread always lands buttered side down, what happens if you tie a piece of buttered bread (buttered side up) to a cat's back? (And drop the cat?)

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 20:46 | 4084707 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture


I've got 9 cats.....(don't ask, it wasn't my idea).  But I'll let you know how that experiment works out.

First things first.  Do you know a good divorce attorney?   LOL  !

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 21:26 | 4084814 Dadburnitpa
Dadburnitpa's picture

You're only one cat away from being "the crazy cat dude".

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 22:01 | 4084900 prains
prains's picture

protein source

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 01:16 | 4085210 snr-moment
snr-moment's picture

the dude? or the cats?

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 23:50 | 4085118 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

I may go crazy from the cats but i married the crazy cat dudette.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 06:09 | 4085442 StormShadow
StormShadow's picture

One things's for sure, if a chick owns cats she is crazy, and the more cats the crazier. The upside is "sick in the head, good in bed."

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 22:48 | 4085019 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Dude, time to lay off the pot. 

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 01:38 | 4085225 TheWord
TheWord's picture

Schrodinger's sandwich?

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 19:57 | 4084601 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

All good!

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 19:57 | 4084603 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Cat = Dr. Copper

Makes sense it would be a leading indicator.  Why does no one care about Amazon's nonexistent earnings, or razor thin margins.  John Neff always said you have to judge a market by its drivers.  Where are the stocks anyone really wants to own?

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 20:03 | 4084619 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Who needs to mine anything anymore?  Just make a computer program, IPO it, and print up moar moneez to get rich!

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 21:11 | 4084777 edb5s
edb5s's picture

What does it mean when a market's sole drivers are QE and Carl iCahn tweets?

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 22:53 | 4085026 Agent P
Agent P's picture

As of today, Amazon is boosting purchase minimums for free super saver shipping from $25 to $35.  Earnings and margins full steam ahead!!!

/sarc (how do I make the font bigger?)


Thu, 10/24/2013 - 00:22 | 4085148 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Yup, makes sense.  As I posted in another thread, a friend of mine builds large mining equipment that generally uses CAT chassis and engines, and I can pretty much tell whether CAT's profits will be up or down based on whether his company has hired people or laid them off.  They laid people off about a month ago.  The reason is simple.  The demand for mining equipment has fallen.  That implies that the demand for raw materials has dropped. 

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 01:14 | 4085206 dunce
dunce's picture

It all depends on China, they are the only large economy still capable of real growth. The USA will keep stumbling along until the democrats are dumped in 2016 at the soonest. Then there is no guarantee that the damage can be repaired on any short time frame. There are strong possibilities of major political upheavals before then. Many in the world have long objected to our leading role in world affairs, the usual replacement suggested was the UN. this is highly unlikely. The EU is just as big a joke.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 04:44 | 4085373 Seer
Seer's picture

Me thinks you need to understand the exponential function...  "growth" cannot be sustained, not on a finite planet.  Oh yeah, it's a conspiracy by the "democrats."

China is literally choking on its "growth."  And, well, you can believe what you want coming from China (after all, they're NOT controlled by the "democrats").

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 01:59 | 4085251 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

At the end of a bull market you get a garbage market then you get a kids' garbage market. The kind of market where no one over the age of 29 can stand to buy.

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 19:59 | 4084607 CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

Here Kitty Kitty....reward offered for lost cat.

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 20:02 | 4084614 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Looks like it's time for moar QE.

<"Give me a double and leave the bottle." - Wall Street>

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 20:07 | 4084621 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

In the bullish news of the day... California might FINALLY about to get their ``big one``... Hopefully it's cascadia and all the Obamabots cities off the coast get wiped out.


Can oarfish predict earthquakes? Maybe it's not as crazy as it sounds

Finding a giant oarfish washed up on the beach is a rare occurrence, since the fish is a deepwater species that's rarely seen at all. So when a second oarfish was found just five days later, the rumor mill kicked into high gear.

An 18-foot-long (5.5-meter) oarfish carcass discovered on Oct. 13 was considered a once-in-a-lifetime event for beachgoers on Catalina Island off the coast of Southern California. But that event was followed five days later by a second oarfish, measuring 14 feet (4.3 meters), found on a beach in San Diego County.

Now, some are claiming that oarfish washing ashore is a sign that an earthquake will soon follow. Shortly before the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami struck Japan, about 20 oarfish stranded themselves on beaches in the area, Mark Benfield, a researcher at Louisiana State University, told LiveScience in an earlier interview. 

The oarfish is known in Japan as ryugu no tsukai or "messenger from the sea god's palace," according to the Japan Times. Dozens of the deep-sea denizens were discovered by Japanese fishermen around the time a powerful 8.8-magnitude earthquake struck Chile in March 2010.

Kiyoshi Wadatsumi, a specialist in ecological seismology, told the Japan Times, "Deep-sea fish living near the sea bottom are more sensitive to the movements of active faults than those near the surface of the sea."


Wed, 10/23/2013 - 20:53 | 4084731 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Oh shit.....never heard that one before.   But it has the ring of truth.....along with snakes coming out of dens, dogs and cats going missing in town (look for a spike in Pet Missing ads in papers).

Keep a weather eye out.

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 21:03 | 4084760 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Cats ,and dogs missing is more symptomatic of a new Indian curry house.


Thu, 10/24/2013 - 00:27 | 4085156 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

The ancient Chinese kept crickets in bamboo cages to warn of earthquakes.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 02:02 | 4085254 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Where the hell did they find crickets that speak Chinese?

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 09:05 | 4085738 SystemOfaDrown
SystemOfaDrown's picture

Morse code.

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 22:27 | 4084976 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

Lolmao500 :
Great read, thanks for sharing. The theory makes a heck of a lot of sense. More re-enforcement the humans tend to act as the dumbest creatures on earth. .

Long- Nevada desert property near fault lines.
Short - Tofu, bean sprouts, and "I Love LA bumper stickers."

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 22:36 | 4084989 Bobportlandor
Bobportlandor's picture

I'm looking for Mexicans heading south by the millions.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 09:03 | 4085730 SystemOfaDrown
SystemOfaDrown's picture

Oar it could be nothing!

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 20:08 | 4084630 Teddy Tenpole
Teddy Tenpole's picture



You know Tyler if we had a dollar of GDP for everytime you said either, "...and we know how that ended" and or, "...and we all know that didn't end well", we'd be hitting escape velocity.

ZH, Home of the Rear View Mirror.

The fucking index has doubled since this last great signal.


Just sayin'  :) 

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 20:16 | 4084643 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

So did CAT's YOY revenues (from -40% to +60%)  World GDP followed.  Just sayin.

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 20:48 | 4084719 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Revenues in inflated, worthless fiat.  Try again using inflation adjusted dollars.  Either way...it's ugly.

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 20:17 | 4084646 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

What is your point ?

Sucks to be sane in an insane world I know....


What are you "just sayin" ?

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 20:22 | 4084657 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel means you are nearing the end of the tunnel.  That is the message of MSM.  ZH is merely pointing out the very real possibility that it is a train.    I think pretty much everyone and their uncle is on one side of the boat right now.  We all know how that usually ends.  Doh!  Guess it's catching.

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 20:21 | 4084656 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Neva'. AMZN/TSLA/NFLX iz da biznis in 2013. CAT be old skool, dog!

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 20:40 | 4084693 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Have a second look at graph. A monkey and tin can take the streets seeking donations.

Just today, the CEO of Caterpillar said that if this American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan is passed, his company would be able to rehire some of the employees they’ve been forced to lay off.


Wed, 10/23/2013 - 22:31 | 4084985 Bobportlandor
Bobportlandor's picture

You think it might pass?

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 00:25 | 4085154 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

This was from 2009.

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 22:45 | 4085012 Osmium
Osmium's picture

It didn't help because the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan was for "Shovel Ready" jobs, not CAT ready jobs.  Now if CAT had manufactured a bunch of shovels...

Wed, 10/23/2013 - 21:46 | 4084861 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

Well I guess that chart means Yellen will be printing like crazy pretty soon.  Guaranteed the S&P will top out at around 20k in a month or so.  This, of course according to Greensuckspan, will help the middle class so they will buy his trash filled book.

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