Are We In The 3rd (And Final) Stage Of The Bull Market?

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,


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Ham-bone's picture

The duration of our "bull market" is not up to investors, confidence, market participant psychology, earnings, growth, or any fundamental issues - it is simply a political decision determined by neither the electorate or elected...the un-elected puppet masters will pull the strings as they see fit and "markets" will appear to dance on cue.

King_of_simpletons's picture

We are in a bullshit market. These charts don't have any bearing. For all we know the real bull market may begin after Yellen takes over.

zaphod's picture

Exactly, the S&P could double from here and you could draw the exact same charts. The only thing I am reading in the charts is time to get out of paper and into assets. NFLX is not an asset, but many industrials are.

halfawake's picture

+1 weimar/zimbabwe for US stocks, undoubtedly. especially if the tyler's keep posting these "are stocks about to tumble?!?" posts.

King_of_simpletons's picture

Real is whatever the "new normal" is set forth by the assholes* at the time of uttering the said word


* WallStreetWashingtonDCMediaFederalReserve Complex.

midtowng's picture

Historically the stock market is prepped for a serious correction.

this time might be different, but I doubt it.

GernB's picture

Agreed, with three provisions.

1) just because conditions are ripe does not mean it will occur.

2) even if it occurs it could be months from now.

3) the correction coud be big or small, nobody knows

NoDebt's picture

So would that be the 2014 elections or the 2016 elections?

max2205's picture

Lance is a good egg..thanks TD

yofish's picture

One of the dumbest posts of the day. Moar, bitchez, sheeple, puppet masters, muppets, BTFATH and blah, blah, blah.

pods's picture

What is this "market" that everyone speaks about?


Hedgetard55's picture

"Market cycles" have been rendered moot by Berstanky.

101 years and counting's picture

this is the prevailing sentiment.  just as the writer was suggesting.  ie, "this time is different because...." and everyone says Fed/Ben.

asteroids's picture

As stawks and commodities go higher, the same amount of QE buys less of it. This is common sense. You reduce or cut off QE, the balloon quickly falls back to Earth.

game theory's picture

By the time the Fed stops QE, there will be so much money in the economy that every asset class will be higher than it was five years ago. And I imagine stocks and commodities will continue to rise until for some time after the taper ends.  My question is how long does it take for across-the-board inflation really dig in and start to damage the economy. And not reported/faked CPI numbers..."real" inflation.

thebondfreak's picture

I agree on stocks and bonds, but NOT commodities. Look at the CRB, it's going lower. Which to me is more proof there is NOT any economy in the world growing.

My question is this. Is there any catalyst that can trump the Fed? Has there ever been any precedence to this? Seems to me the Fed can "print" any catalyst into oblivion!

game theory's picture

I agree: the Fed is a force unlike any other in the financial world. Whether you agree or disagree with their policies (or the validity of their existence), to ignore them is folly.  

As for the CRB...I see you are right. But I sincerely doubt commodity prices will remain low for seems improbable given what the Fed is doing. 

dontgoforit's picture

When the whole world turns on us, you could call that a catalyst.  We're seeing signs.

Ham-bone's picture


gotta say I respectfully disagree...the moment the Fed stops pumping ever more QE into the system, it immediately begins it's implosion.  Quite simply the massive debts would all begin to re-set to real market interest rates which would simply be an all out demolition of everything interest rate sensitive (corporations who have been given ever cheaper loans for 34yrs...Federal, state, muni's all given ever lower interest industry, homes, on and on and on).  This would restart the deleveraging of all those plus wall street and detonating the derivatives market.  Daisy chain stuff.  True in America, true in Japan, true in Spain, Italy, Greece. 

This is why the CB's and Fed cannot stop even if they know this won't work long term, even if they know this will not garner any true economic "growth"... they've determined better to live a little longer than allow it to end today.

game theory's picture

It seems like the Fed plans to print until things don't show signs of imploding. I mean, they hinted at taper and then complained that rates rose. So clearly their goal is to use QE until rates don't rise as they taper. Plus, the gov't is deficit spending like there are plenty of happy gov't workers/contractors making bank right now and buying up everything they can. The Fed is going to run this scam until things change. And by that point, inflation will have made most debts inconsequential. 

NDXTrader's picture

The whole point is that the Fed will never stop printing because there would be an implosion. The only way this merry go round stops is through crippling inflation - and in that scenario stocks go MUCH higher before imploding

game theory's picture

Are you talking about asset price "implosion" or some kind of systemic collapse?  Since the gov't is handing trillions out to its workers and contractors every year you've got major housing price inflation in the areas where those people live.  Meanwhile, banking deposits are at record levels (maybe those same people saving). Once money velocity increases, I think most people agree that this all ends with double digit inflation. Stocks won't implode in that case...they will explode.  And more money will flow back to the gov't via increases taxes. And then the Fed will taper. 

But even if this is how it all goes down, it's still pure fraud. Counterfeiting money for paper pushers and NSA types whose claim to fame is that they can bug the German chancellor.  And devaluing the dollar because the country pays too much to run it's fraudulent gov't...sigh.

Ham-bone's picture

gotta say I struggle w/ the idea that old debt can be inflated away by taking on even more debt now...I get that is how you pay the old debts but seems to only make sense if you were not over-indebted. 

Inflation for the over-indebted, interest rate sensitive is not a solution or end game...just another ever shorter kick of the old, beat, worn out can.

Or another way to think about it, any increase in economic activity (say a 3.5% jump in GDP) would increase economic activity by $560 B but the increase in taxes would be @ 20% of that or $110 B…the parallel rising interest rates to say 3.5% would raise interest costs to $600 B…a net deficit increase of $140 B. One step forward economically would create two steps backward budgetarily (hello Reinhart and Rogoff).  Now of course the Fed will remit the increase in interest back to the Treasury (+$25 B) but growth actually speeds the budget deficits...not cures them?!?

Dr. Engali's picture

The "market" has become a policy tool, and the bull market will continue until TPTB decide it's time to pull the rug. Nobody, but a select few will profit from the downside when this thing vaporizes. All other analysis in a centrally planned rigged "market" is garbage.

Hedgetard55's picture

Which is why I came straight to the comments and skipped over all the useless charts and shit.

Dr. Engali's picture

Sad to say, but I do pretty much the same thing. Now I just skim analysis, when in the past I would read it twice and if it was a particularly good piece I would read it three times. I used to enjoy this kind of stuff, but now all you have to know is to BTFD, or BTFATH. I hate what the markets have morphed into.

NoDebt's picture

There are no investors left.  We've all become speculators.

fonzannoon's picture

look at the bright side. You can use the markets with a small portion of your savings to make paper profits which can then be converted into real assets. You just have to hope that by the time it goes boom you got more out of it than you put into it. There must be some kind of scheme that goes by this name.....

game theory's picture

But I can't afford anything real with the paper profits because real assets have inflated faster than the markets.  I tried to counter this realization by constantly lowering my expectations, but I hit the zero-bound years ago. 

game theory's picture

I meant all the *other* real stuff :)

SheepDog-One's picture

'Speculators'? More like degenerate gambling addicts.


Good move HTARD55 !!!!!!!!!!!!!  We are in the final, final stage of the BULLSHIT MARKET. Why bother?

Pairadimes's picture

At what point are we going to realize that any history in which markets responded to fundamentals is of no use to us in the current environment?

DavidC's picture

This 'bull' market has never been that in its true sense, it's been a market that has been driven up by the irresponsibility of the Fed and an unacceptance of natural cycles, which WILL win out in the end.

King Cnut (Canute) sat by the waves to show his sycophantic courtiers that he COULDN'T control the waves and that God was more powerful than he. A shame the Fed and others like them don't realise that.


EcoJoker's picture

How can this market possibly crash when the fed is backstopping it?   I easily expect more QE if it gets dangerous of a crash

Tinky's picture

How could the patient possibly feel pain when the doctors are there to help? I easily expect increasing dosages of morphine if there is any discomfort.

GeorgeHayduke's picture

You got it. Welfare for stock holders will continue until this system crumbles. That welfare, plus corporate welfare for corporations that deal in surveillance, spying, imprisonment and death will be here until the system has crushed everyone and everything else. Welcome to the new version of American exceptionalism! 

CPL's picture

Correct, do not short.  Ever.

john_connor's picture

Looks like a giant, terminal expanding wedge.  Ruh Roh.

Remember that casino gains are not "real" until you cash out.  Easy come, easy go.

Groundhog Day's picture

The Craps table is loaded and everyone is pressing their bets cuz their is a hot shooter (bernank) and he will never roll a 7 again.  You'd have to be a fool to take your chips off the table at this time.  Winners all around.

CPL's picture

Even then the currency you will be holding is depreciating in value by the second against hard assets.

csodak's picture

I dont' know, are we??? The question as to wether we are at the end of the bull market has been asked by the bears for the past 5+years and each time they act they get their heads handed to them on a platter.

There is no limit to QE, the Fed/Treasury creates money out of thin is as plentiful as oxygen.

yogibear's picture

As long as the Fed abd government keep expanding debt it's risk-on.

No debt ceiling or spending limits currently. Not until one is established again.

Obama had his way, a credit card with no limit currently.

Debt exceeding $20 trillion by 2015.




ParkAveFlasher's picture

I have a system.  Whenever I want a fund or stock price to turn lower, I buy it.  It's bulletproof!

OneTinSoldier66's picture

I hear ya. Same here.


When I bought some Gold and Silver mining stocks a few years back, pretty soon thereafter they started going lower. Want to see Gold and Silver mining stocks go higher? If I capitulate and sell mine, that is the moment when Gold and Silver mining stocks will start marching significantly higher!


 The bullion itself is different imo. I won't ever be selling my Gold and Silver bullion. I'll be spending it!