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Are We In The 3rd (And Final) Stage Of The Bull Market?

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,



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Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:09 | 4086276 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

The duration of our "bull market" is not up to investors, confidence, market participant psychology, earnings, growth, or any fundamental issues - it is simply a political decision determined by neither the electorate or elected...the un-elected puppet masters will pull the strings as they see fit and "markets" will appear to dance on cue.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:11 | 4086337 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

We are in a bullshit market. These charts don't have any bearing. For all we know the real bull market may begin after Yellen takes over.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 12:15 | 4086650 zaphod
zaphod's picture

Exactly, the S&P could double from here and you could draw the exact same charts. The only thing I am reading in the charts is time to get out of paper and into assets. NFLX is not an asset, but many industrials are.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 13:26 | 4087044 halfawake
halfawake's picture

+1 weimar/zimbabwe for US stocks, undoubtedly. especially if the tyler's keep posting these "are stocks about to tumble?!?" posts.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 13:28 | 4087047 CPL
CPL's picture

Define "real".

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 13:58 | 4087165 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Real is whatever the "new normal" is set forth by the assholes* at the time of uttering the said word


* WallStreetWashingtonDCMediaFederalReserve Complex.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 13:54 | 4087151 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Historically the stock market is prepped for a serious correction.

this time might be different, but I doubt it.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 16:01 | 4087744 GernB
GernB's picture

Agreed, with three provisions.

1) just because conditions are ripe does not mean it will occur.

2) even if it occurs it could be months from now.

3) the correction coud be big or small, nobody knows

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:18 | 4086367 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

So would that be the 2014 elections or the 2016 elections?

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:51 | 4086524 max2205
max2205's picture

Lance is a good egg..thanks TD

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 15:26 | 4087614 yofish
yofish's picture

One of the dumbest posts of the day. Moar, bitchez, sheeple, puppet masters, muppets, BTFATH and blah, blah, blah.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:01 | 4086282 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

It go boom

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:02 | 4086286 pods
pods's picture

What is this "market" that everyone speaks about?


Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:04 | 4086303 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

"Market cycles" have been rendered moot by Berstanky.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 13:15 | 4086985 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

this is the prevailing sentiment.  just as the writer was suggesting.  ie, "this time is different because...." and everyone says Fed/Ben.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:02 | 4086290 asteroids
asteroids's picture

As stawks and commodities go higher, the same amount of QE buys less of it. This is common sense. You reduce or cut off QE, the balloon quickly falls back to Earth.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:39 | 4086470 game theory
game theory's picture

By the time the Fed stops QE, there will be so much money in the economy that every asset class will be higher than it was five years ago. And I imagine stocks and commodities will continue to rise until for some time after the taper ends.  My question is how long does it take for across-the-board inflation really dig in and start to damage the economy. And not reported/faked CPI numbers..."real" inflation.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 12:09 | 4086623 thebondfreak
thebondfreak's picture

I agree on stocks and bonds, but NOT commodities. Look at the CRB, it's going lower. Which to me is more proof there is NOT any economy in the world growing.

My question is this. Is there any catalyst that can trump the Fed? Has there ever been any precedence to this? Seems to me the Fed can "print" any catalyst into oblivion!

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 13:12 | 4086972 game theory
game theory's picture

I agree: the Fed is a force unlike any other in the financial world. Whether you agree or disagree with their policies (or the validity of their existence), to ignore them is folly.  

As for the CRB...I see you are right. But I sincerely doubt commodity prices will remain low for seems improbable given what the Fed is doing. 

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 13:28 | 4087051 halfawake
halfawake's picture

losing reserve status.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 14:03 | 4087177 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

When the whole world turns on us, you could call that a catalyst.  We're seeing signs.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 12:23 | 4086664 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture


gotta say I respectfully disagree...the moment the Fed stops pumping ever more QE into the system, it immediately begins it's implosion.  Quite simply the massive debts would all begin to re-set to real market interest rates which would simply be an all out demolition of everything interest rate sensitive (corporations who have been given ever cheaper loans for 34yrs...Federal, state, muni's all given ever lower interest industry, homes, on and on and on).  This would restart the deleveraging of all those plus wall street and detonating the derivatives market.  Daisy chain stuff.  True in America, true in Japan, true in Spain, Italy, Greece. 

This is why the CB's and Fed cannot stop even if they know this won't work long term, even if they know this will not garner any true economic "growth"... they've determined better to live a little longer than allow it to end today.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 13:01 | 4086915 game theory
game theory's picture

It seems like the Fed plans to print until things don't show signs of imploding. I mean, they hinted at taper and then complained that rates rose. So clearly their goal is to use QE until rates don't rise as they taper. Plus, the gov't is deficit spending like there are plenty of happy gov't workers/contractors making bank right now and buying up everything they can. The Fed is going to run this scam until things change. And by that point, inflation will have made most debts inconsequential. 

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 13:17 | 4086998 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

The whole point is that the Fed will never stop printing because there would be an implosion. The only way this merry go round stops is through crippling inflation - and in that scenario stocks go MUCH higher before imploding

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 14:49 | 4087419 game theory
game theory's picture

Are you talking about asset price "implosion" or some kind of systemic collapse?  Since the gov't is handing trillions out to its workers and contractors every year you've got major housing price inflation in the areas where those people live.  Meanwhile, banking deposits are at record levels (maybe those same people saving). Once money velocity increases, I think most people agree that this all ends with double digit inflation. Stocks won't implode in that case...they will explode.  And more money will flow back to the gov't via increases taxes. And then the Fed will taper. 

But even if this is how it all goes down, it's still pure fraud. Counterfeiting money for paper pushers and NSA types whose claim to fame is that they can bug the German chancellor.  And devaluing the dollar because the country pays too much to run it's fraudulent gov't...sigh.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 14:05 | 4087073 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

gotta say I struggle w/ the idea that old debt can be inflated away by taking on even more debt now...I get that is how you pay the old debts but seems to only make sense if you were not over-indebted. 

Inflation for the over-indebted, interest rate sensitive is not a solution or end game...just another ever shorter kick of the old, beat, worn out can.

Or another way to think about it, any increase in economic activity (say a 3.5% jump in GDP) would increase economic activity by $560 B but the increase in taxes would be @ 20% of that or $110 B…the parallel rising interest rates to say 3.5% would raise interest costs to $600 B…a net deficit increase of $140 B. One step forward economically would create two steps backward budgetarily (hello Reinhart and Rogoff).  Now of course the Fed will remit the increase in interest back to the Treasury (+$25 B) but growth actually speeds the budget deficits...not cures them?!?

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:06 | 4086301 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The "market" has become a policy tool, and the bull market will continue until TPTB decide it's time to pull the rug. Nobody, but a select few will profit from the downside when this thing vaporizes. All other analysis in a centrally planned rigged "market" is garbage.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:06 | 4086309 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Which is why I came straight to the comments and skipped over all the useless charts and shit.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:12 | 4086342 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Sad to say, but I do pretty much the same thing. Now I just skim analysis, when in the past I would read it twice and if it was a particularly good piece I would read it three times. I used to enjoy this kind of stuff, but now all you have to know is to BTFD, or BTFATH. I hate what the markets have morphed into.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:21 | 4086382 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

There are no investors left.  We've all become speculators.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:35 | 4086457 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

look at the bright side. You can use the markets with a small portion of your savings to make paper profits which can then be converted into real assets. You just have to hope that by the time it goes boom you got more out of it than you put into it. There must be some kind of scheme that goes by this name.....

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:53 | 4086544 game theory
game theory's picture

But I can't afford anything real with the paper profits because real assets have inflated faster than the markets.  I tried to counter this realization by constantly lowering my expectations, but I hit the zero-bound years ago. 

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:59 | 4086566 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"real assets have inflated faster than the markets."


Thu, 10/24/2013 - 12:17 | 4086668 game theory
game theory's picture

I meant all the *other* real stuff :)

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 13:30 | 4087060 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Speculators'? More like degenerate gambling addicts.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 12:49 | 4086846 NIHILIST CIPHER

Good move HTARD55 !!!!!!!!!!!!!  We are in the final, final stage of the BULLSHIT MARKET. Why bother?

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:05 | 4086304 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

At what point are we going to realize that any history in which markets responded to fundamentals is of no use to us in the current environment?

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:06 | 4086313 DavidC
DavidC's picture

This 'bull' market has never been that in its true sense, it's been a market that has been driven up by the irresponsibility of the Fed and an unacceptance of natural cycles, which WILL win out in the end.

King Cnut (Canute) sat by the waves to show his sycophantic courtiers that he COULDN'T control the waves and that God was more powerful than he. A shame the Fed and others like them don't realise that.


Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:07 | 4086314 EcoJoker
EcoJoker's picture

How can this market possibly crash when the fed is backstopping it?   I easily expect more QE if it gets dangerous of a crash

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:11 | 4086336 Tinky
Tinky's picture

How could the patient possibly feel pain when the doctors are there to help? I easily expect increasing dosages of morphine if there is any discomfort.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:29 | 4086425 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

You got it. Welfare for stock holders will continue until this system crumbles. That welfare, plus corporate welfare for corporations that deal in surveillance, spying, imprisonment and death will be here until the system has crushed everyone and everything else. Welcome to the new version of American exceptionalism! 

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 13:32 | 4087067 CPL
CPL's picture

Correct, do not short.  Ever.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:07 | 4086315 john_connor
john_connor's picture

Looks like a giant, terminal expanding wedge.  Ruh Roh.

Remember that casino gains are not "real" until you cash out.  Easy come, easy go.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:19 | 4086373 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

The Craps table is loaded and everyone is pressing their bets cuz their is a hot shooter (bernank) and he will never roll a 7 again.  You'd have to be a fool to take your chips off the table at this time.  Winners all around.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 13:33 | 4087077 CPL
CPL's picture

Even then the currency you will be holding is depreciating in value by the second against hard assets.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:08 | 4086318 csodak
csodak's picture

I dont' know, are we??? The question as to wether we are at the end of the bull market has been asked by the bears for the past 5+years and each time they act they get their heads handed to them on a platter.

There is no limit to QE, the Fed/Treasury creates money out of thin is as plentiful as oxygen.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:09 | 4086325 yogibear
yogibear's picture

As long as the Fed abd government keep expanding debt it's risk-on.

No debt ceiling or spending limits currently. Not until one is established again.

Obama had his way, a credit card with no limit currently.

Debt exceeding $20 trillion by 2015.




Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:31 | 4086433 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture$22-Trillion-by-Feb.-2014/

Some are arguing a lot sooner than that.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:11 | 4086335 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I have a system.  Whenever I want a fund or stock price to turn lower, I buy it.  It's bulletproof!

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:40 | 4086479 OneTinSoldier66
OneTinSoldier66's picture

I hear ya. Same here.


When I bought some Gold and Silver mining stocks a few years back, pretty soon thereafter they started going lower. Want to see Gold and Silver mining stocks go higher? If I capitulate and sell mine, that is the moment when Gold and Silver mining stocks will start marching significantly higher!


 The bullion itself is different imo. I won't ever be selling my Gold and Silver bullion. I'll be spending it!

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 12:27 | 4086728 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Tough part is "sitting tight".  I'm always right, dammit.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:14 | 4086349 rp1
rp1's picture

Hussman considers a melt-up.  Rosenberg turns constructive.  But none of that means it will end because capital is being herded by the Fed.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:15 | 4086356 6th of May
6th of May's picture

Well, even IF America can get their shit together and print even more and more, so the stock market goes up;

People are forgetting Europe, Asian and South America. It's not all about the US, If the Chinese or European market tank severely due to their own problems so will the US Market - they can print on and on and on... It won't matter - We know everything is in bad shape.


In every big economic country there are severe problems by now - let pop one, and the orther will follow.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:17 | 4086364 yogibear
yogibear's picture

For Bernanke, Yellen, Evans, Dudley and Fisher it's about debt to infinity.

Presently there isn't a debt ceiling.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:52 | 4086532 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"For Bernanke, Yellen, Evans, Dudley and Fisher it's about debt to infinity.

Presently there isn't a debt ceiling."


There has never ever really been a debt ceiling.  Every time they hit it, they raise it.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:18 | 4086366 rp1
rp1's picture

The bull market will never end as long as zerohedge exists.  It is like matter and anti-matter.  Yin and Yang.  Tyler - tear down this wall!

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:19 | 4086372 RMolineaux
RMolineaux's picture

Roberts does not take into consideration the Fed's money printing, which does not fit into historical analysis and that nullifies any attempt to apply precedent.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:23 | 4086388 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Just think about an actual bubble. You know it is going to pop but you have no idea exactly when. Would you bet your wealth on the timing?

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:24 | 4086400 falak pema
falak pema's picture

When the market beanstalk only talks to the gawk of CB pumping and never to the sun of chlorophyllian growth, he is in for a surprise that even Mises of miserly gold bug jitterbugging said : its only a question of now or later.  

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:24 | 4086404 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

The Chinese foolishly think they can surpass the United States as the dominant financial superpower.  They even foolishly are shopping around the world to lock in real resources like gold and oil.  But in the financial world the Fed and its big bank henchmen can control the entire planet through unlimited creation of paper assets of any traded commodity, stock or debt product.  If the big banks need more free money to do that manipulation, they just give a Yell(in) to the Fed.  China has not learned that it must also control the 'freely' traded markets in order to gain pre-eminence in the world financial markets.  The real reason the markets fear the taper is that it removes the big bank's ability to manipulate everything.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:30 | 4086428 DavidC
DavidC's picture

The US does not operate in a vacuum.


Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:26 | 4086412 The Axe
The Axe's picture

CRAZY SHIT     a peeny stock  FANNIE  just dropped from 2.65 to 1.90  in 10 seconds        

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:31 | 4086438 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

probably not.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:32 | 4086442 g'kar
g'kar's picture

Let's look back when we are in the fourth stage.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:41 | 4086483 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"In phase two, however, investors gradually turn bullish for the simple reason that prices have been steadily rising for some time."


How does one turn bullish on a market that is based on financial fraud?

How do Bermie Madoff's clients feel today?  At one time they felt great, during the grand illusion.  DOW 15 or 16 or 17 thousand should feel great, but it is a grand illusion, whether it will be that the market will crash or the value of the money in the market will crash.  The Venezuala market is up 300% this year, but what does the money buy?

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:58 | 4086562 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture



99 out of a hundred Americans do not know the difference between real and nominal numbers. Hell, no one on CNBC does either.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 12:08 | 4086620 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"99 out of a hundred Americans do not know the difference between real and nominal numbers. Hell, no one on CNBC does either."


Nominal numbers are mostly what 99% ever get to see by way of the news media.  It is difficult to know the difference when one is never shown the difference.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 12:18 | 4086670 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re: It is difficult to know the difference when one is never shown the difference.

It wouldn't matter.   The guy in the cube next to me, who is learning options from another guy down the way, thinks that Apply hired the CEO of Blackberry.

Markets have always existed to move money from the dumbasses to the smart-n-savvy people.   Markets are how the smart-n-savvy people win.   Only the semi-autistic and the "children" think markets are fair.

Brian: How much? Quick!
Beard Seller: What?
Brian: It's for the wife.
Beard Seller: Oh. Twenty shekels.
Brian: Right.
Beard Seller: What?
Brian: (putting the money down) There you are...
Beard Seller: Wait a moment.
Brian: What?
Beard Seller: We're supposed to haggle.
Brian: No, no — I've got to...
Beard Seller: What do you mean, 'no'?
Brian: I haven't time — I've got to get...
Beard Seller: Give it back then.
Brian: No, no — I paid you.
Beard Seller: (calls) Bert!

Bert, a massive man, appears.

Bert: Yeah?
Beard Seller: This bloke won't haggle.
Bert: (looks around) Where are the guards?
Brian: Oh all right — I mean, do we have to...
Thu, 10/24/2013 - 11:53 | 4086535 2bit Hoarder
2bit Hoarder's picture

we are early in the curve of the hockey stick ... overlay zimbabwe stock market with SPX ... should give you a better idea of where in the bull market we are at.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 12:01 | 4086569 kurzdump
kurzdump's picture

As long as the FED keeps balancing for the lack of private debt, the markets will remain bullish.

From an abstract point of view the FED replaces profits by printed money. It keeps the 'reallocation of wealth'-machine running.

The 'real' economy is in deflation mode. Wait for this deflation to gain speed. The FED will have to speed up the printing presses at an ever increasing pace. At some point even the dumbest guy will realize that the SHTF.

Once that happens, there will be no profit taking from shorts or whatsoever. The FED is using its ulitmate weapon atm. There is no way to avoid or fight the coming crash without some kind of monetary reform.

FEMA already prepared accordingly. What about you?

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 12:02 | 4086576 RSDallas
RSDallas's picture

Lance, I think it would have been more appropriate to title this piece "are we in the third and final fed induced bull market". This ramp up is going to tumble just like the other fed induced rallies. It amazes me that anybody could refer to this market any other way and the sad thing is that there is only 1 way out of this mess. We will have another major financial meltdown wherein the Fed and our thieving leaders in Washington allow the market to clear, thus expunging all the miss-allocated, non performing debt. Otherwise our economy will keep wandering around like the zombie it has become.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 12:07 | 4086611 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  Otherwise our economy will keep wandering around like the zombie it has become.

If a society is based on con-artists screwing dumbasses why would anything but a bubble based economy be "normal". 

People on this site want to return to a "normal market".   But, what's "normal" in a survival-of-the-fittest society?

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 12:02 | 4086578 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"What is clearly evident is that investors, four years after the bull market started, are finally buying into the equity market."


How is it that people never learn?

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 12:03 | 4086591 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  How is it that people never learn?

How is it that people think people could ever learn anything?

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 12:02 | 4086583 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

The markets have always been a function of:  optimism, the prostate gland, available money, & debt.

Debt is a function of: optimism, the prostate gland, & The Fed.

So, the market = 2 parts optimism, 2 parts prostate gland, available money, & The Fed.

Place all ingredients into a cocktail shaker, serve up or with a Hindenburg Omen twist.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 12:04 | 4086594 MTAR
MTAR's picture

I wonder what charts would like without any QE? 

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 12:33 | 4086761 kurzdump
kurzdump's picture

I am confident you wouldnt have a chance to check the charts if there was no QEx.

There are no markets anymore - what you see on the stage are dead, rotting markets with some (hard to see) strings on it. These dead markets are dancing string puppets controlled by the FED. Once the strings are cut they will stop dancing immediately.

Dont you smell the decay scent already?

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 16:06 | 4087769 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

And we see today that QE will be increased.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 13:00 | 4086911 ZH Snob
ZH Snob's picture

When the Fed whips the bull it runs.

When the Fed feeds the bear it is sure to come.


We all know every market is rigged, so it's really as simple as that.


Thu, 10/24/2013 - 13:16 | 4086989 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

I'll go short the day zerohedge goes bullish.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 13:21 | 4087017 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

The only way this ends is through crippling inflation. The kind of inflation that actually wakes people up (things going up in price 10-20% a month). And in that scenario stocks go much, much higher before imploding

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 13:30 | 4087061 rustymason
rustymason's picture

I guess it can just go on like this forever ...

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 13:36 | 4087064 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

Until (prob not for years if ever) the Fed starts taking the foot off of the gas, the best investing strategy is to wait for each "crisis" - Greece, sequester, debt ceiling, Syria - and let the S&P daily hit the lower Bollinger Band and then buy as many out of the money calls as you can in the next month. If you did that just this year you would be a multi-millionaire

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 16:07 | 4087779 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

The Fed will keep pedal to the metal until the engine blows up. When it finally goes, the collapse will be so fast that no one will get out.

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 13:54 | 4087150 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

The graph is missing the "Loathing" period after the "fear" downdraft. It should be a box that goes across the bottom from about 2008 to present. 

"Good god man pull yourself together!" 

Thu, 10/24/2013 - 14:21 | 4087256 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The second, and I do mean "the second", they stop printing money and stop intervening, this turkey is going through the floor.  The problem with it all is that it is a human decision now.  Eventually, someone will decide they will get more personal gain from knocking it all down again. 

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