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Guest Post: Is A Major Correction Coming?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,

 

 

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Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:01 | 4090726 LMAO
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Guest Post: Is A Major Correction Coming?

 

Is the FED about to taper?

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:02 | 4090733 JP McManus
JP McManus's picture

I was about to post the same thing.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:06 | 4090744 hedgeless_horseman
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...fueled by Federal Reserve interventions...

At least we aren't currency manipulators like those evil chi.coms.

Intervention=good

Manipulation=bad

See the difference?

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:07 | 4090756 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

The day will come when even the mighty Fed will lose control. It will be a great and cataclysimic day at the same time.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:13 | 4090781 flacon
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Janet Yellen is a major correction to lack-luster stimulus under mis-named "helicopter Ben". Wake me up when Yellen is pumping one trillion digital dollars per week. 

The correction will look like Caracas stock market... the correction will be to the UP side.... just like in Weimar Germany. 

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:19 | 4090806 ACP
ACP's picture

Ding-Ding! 

QE is no longer considered intervention.

It is POLICY. And can only be increased in magnitude.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:24 | 4090829 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

I've said for a long time that stocks are only fairly priced assuming over10-15% annual DEVALUATION of the currency.

Major devaluation is not coming, its ongoing.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:22 | 4090823 max2205
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By the time the fed untapers we will be down 10% in 1 hour...then you will be told by msm when we are down 20%...no buy dips

We should be over 20,000 on the dow by then....fed wants higher lows...they fucked the chart up last time

 

Next low on the 20 year weekly should be over 9000..for a nice reverse h&s to get bullish on

 

Gs in control...over and out

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:53 | 4090934 SheepDog-One
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I actually think Yellen was put in to be the one to pilot the implosion.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 15:10 | 4091004 dracos_ghost
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I believe it's because she has an inny for genitalia and that's that. The implosion already happened -- S&P is not an indicator or any state just a store for USD haters. The MSM, to their discredit, are controlling the narrative that all is well under Herr Obama.

Friggin hopeless. Better historical timing is looking at Presidential tenures. Last 6 months of a 2 term president is usually brutal. So this garbage can last another 2.5 years or so.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:22 | 4090822 Nothing but the...
Nothing but the truth.'s picture

TheFed has already lost control - they have no alternative but to QE for infinity. Printed into a corner, with no way out.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 15:16 | 4091034 moneybots
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"TheFed has already lost control - they have no alternative but to QE for infinity. Printed into a corner, with no way out."

 

If they have lost control, it is pointless to QE to infinity.

 

 

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 16:13 | 4091243 Nothing but the...
Nothing but the truth.'s picture

QE infinity is widely suggested by many commentators.  I ain't the first - and it has less downside risk than tapering.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:15 | 4090790 Stoploss
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So, Lance, during the past "corrections" Was the FED as actively engaged in relentless debt monetizations as they are now??

It may have something to do with why this "market" will not "correct" correctly...

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 16:17 | 4091260 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Is the Pope Catholic ?

Does a bear shit in the woods ?

Is Elton John gayer than two boys fucking ?

Are the Chinese cornering the physical gold market ?

Are Snooki and Kim Kardashian suiting up for Dancing With The Stars ?

Are the sheeple gonna be caught in the headlights of The Greater Depression ?

Fucking right they are. Bend over America, bankster sausage is aimed right at your asshole - you are about to get fucked. Real good. 

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 15:34 | 4091102 Lewshine
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Fake markets don't have real corrections or crashes - Only ones that are planned and are for the greater good of the .001%

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 15:51 | 4091168 starfcker
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no taper, no crash. no question. think this through. the levels of projected debt were published four years ago. we are headed to 25 trillion as planned. but think about what the printfest really means. i for one don't believe we ever have to pay the fed back. so that number is not as scary as it could be. i also believe as more of the world economy comes on line, the amount of dollars needed becomes much larger, so we can expand the currency supply (print) quite a bit without hyper inflation. what i don't like is giving select institutions access to unlimited free money through the fed, which they then use to buy up the shares of all our productive industries. quite an advantage to get your (gigantic) piece of the pie without breaking a sweat.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 17:46 | 4091493 20-20 Hindsight
20-20 Hindsight's picture

Is A Major Correction Coming?

---

For Christ's sake, if we all had a dollar for each time this question has been asked, we would all be very rich right now, and it wouldn't matter anyway. 

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:02 | 4090732 redpill
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Well where did they think all this QE was going?

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:05 | 4090742 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Bull markets are like boy bands and investors are like teenage girls. 

Teenage girls eventually grow up and their idols dissapear. 

That barechested Bernanke poster will fall off the wall eventually. 

 

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:21 | 4090819 astoriajoe
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but there's always a new crop of fans and a new record-company showpiece.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:04 | 4090743 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The market will rally until the the Bernank's bosses decide it's time to collapse it. All other analysis of the centrally planned policy tool is irrelevant.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:16 | 4090796 Grande Tetons
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The market will rally until the the Bernank's bosses decide it's time to collapse it

Exactly. That is the part that scares this shit out of me. 


Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:35 | 4090880 daveO
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When all the bad loans are bought by the FED.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:55 | 4090943 SheepDog-One
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Yep, and no one will get any advance warning for when they do it either. It will be just like in 2008 no one saw that coming either, but later we found certain insiders had placed their bets heavily on it right before it happened.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 15:37 | 4091112 Lewshine
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If the upside of the market is not real...Why would anyone consider the downside to be??

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:05 | 4090750 CultiVader
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The roof is on fire

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:10 | 4090770 stormsailor
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no

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 15:47 | 4091160 Running On Bing...
Running On Bingo Fuel's picture

No, not until taper. Then yes, big yes.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:13 | 4090783 Bryan
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It does not HAVE to revert to the mean.  Just look at the Zimbabwe chart posted here on ZH earlier. 

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:39 | 4090893 JP McManus
JP McManus's picture

Here's another way to look at it:

Once the market exceeds 30% deviation over the long term average, it NEVER goes below that level again. BTFATH!!!

(Just don't price it in silver/gold/oil, etc.)

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:14 | 4090786 fooshorter
fooshorter's picture

Guest Post: Is this a market or the systematic rapping of america by the international banking cartel?

 

Lets consider some charts... /sarc

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:26 | 4090841 Stormtower
Stormtower's picture

Yes.......and this may be the catylist...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/25/wall-street-landlords_n_4151345.html

The new scam.......hedge funds losing control of all thos e properties for rent

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:31 | 4090862 ivana
ivana's picture

Correction? Noooo, told ya yesterday that stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. :-)

Taper? That's just a PR spin - gov bonds topped mid of 2012 while junk bonds topped few months ago. Is that selfexplanatory?

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:31 | 4090866 tradewithdave
tradewithdave's picture

I hereby proclaim this plateau as Altucher-land. 15,500 is the new base camp. Allow your lungs to adjust to the altitude then it's on to beyond infinity.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:52 | 4090930 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Next step actually is evolving into a species which does not require oxygen to breathe. 

Good luck with all that.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 14:33 | 4090871 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

I think if Lance drew a trend line from 1971 through today he'd find the "market" is currently slightly "undervalued".

The world changed in 1971.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 15:05 | 4090985 polo007
polo007's picture

According to Macquarie Research:

https://app.box.com/s/pzbyrvapbxjs27ql0lnw

Banking on Unconventional Monetary Policy

Event

- We analyse the implications of maintaining current unconventional monetary policy (UMP) mechanisms in the major developed economies for some time into 2014.

Impact

- Financial markets are now expecting the US Federal Reserve to maintain its current program of QE bond purchases until at least March 2014. At the same time, several other major central banks have recently signalled an intention to maintain highly accommodative monetary policy settings for the foreseeable future. Consequently, the medium-term outlook for global liquidity has shifted and should be seen as supporting the strengthening cyclical upturn in the developed economies.

Outlook

- Recent actions and comments from the major central banks indicate that unconventional monetary policy (UMP) can be expected to remain a key feature of the global landscape well into 2014. This reflects a combination of factors, many of which have both domestic and global economic dimensions.

- Notwithstanding concerns in some quarters of financial markets that UMP is an unsustainable policy approach, central banks appear to assess the near-term risks of macroeconomic instability as being better managed through the protracted use of extraordinary policy measures.

- Moreover, the complicated nature of exit strategies for the major central banks, including the likelihood of further unsettling capital outflows from some emerging market economies, is leading to an acceptance that UMP will be sustained for longer than originally anticipated.

- We noted previously that the market consensus in respect to the US Fed’s commencement of a wind back in its quantitative easing (QE) asset purchase program has shifted into 2014. Indeed, market expectations have now aligned with our base case of Fed QE tapering commencing at the 18-19 March 2014 FOMC meeting – although the risks are still skewed to an even later date.

- Given the ‘general equilibrium’ spill-over effects of any shift in the stance of US monetary policy, it is not surprising that most of the other major central banks have acquiesced with the financial markets expectation for a protracted deployment of UMP.

- In our view, there are three key macro implications for global investment markets in the extended use of UMP, namely:

- ongoing elevation of investor risk appetite and a focus on ‘capital growth’ driven assets;

- near-term abatement of ‘capital account’ pressures in several key emerging market economies; and

- persistent concerns about competitive exchange rate devaluations and asset price bubbles.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 15:36 | 4091103 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

Oh shit, not another market collapse predicition. These guys must have run out of things to report. I tell you what, the market will more likely "collapse" when everyone has grown competely  sick and tired of hearing these dire predictions, and when the most insignificant event off the radar screen serves as the trigger. Not a black swan, but a duck dropping.

 

Aesop's "The Boy Cried Wolf" revisited: "The boy cried collapse."

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 16:05 | 4091215 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Would be nice to have a ocntent filter on ZH for these types of articles.

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 15:42 | 4091138 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Unless the FED dumps their temporary holdings and sets their software to take the markets lower there will be no correction.

BTFD

Fri, 10/25/2013 - 15:52 | 4091171 soopy
soopy's picture

yaawnn. wake me up when it does.

Sat, 10/26/2013 - 00:01 | 4092325 WallowaMountainMan
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"Guest Post: Is A Major Correction Coming?"

 

omg i thought it read "erection".

 

my bad.

 

:)

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