This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

What Spanish Recovery?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

One of the prevailing themes in recent weeks has been that Spain has transformed out of Europe's economic basket case into a success story. This was further exemplified today by the following quote by DieselBOOM:

  • DIJSSELBLOEM: SPANISH RECOVERY IS ON TRACK 
  • DIJSSELBLOEM: SPAIN COULD BE FRONT RUNNER OF EURO-AREA RECOVERY

It could, if one listens to bureaucrats peddling snake oily hope, but certainly not based on actual dynamics in its housing market, where mortgage apps have tumbled 90% from all time highs, pocket change investment by Bill Gates notwithstanding, and where even the YoY change has now trippled dipped.

 

... and certainly not based on loan to companies or households, which continue to be the worst in the Eurogroup.

So one wonders: with a housing market deader than ever, and with loan creation that is the worst in the Eurozone, will the modest bounce in employment, which as we explained last week was all driven by a seasonal jump in temp and self-employed workers, just where is Mr. DieselBOOM and the endless ranks of Eurotopians seeing this mythical Spanish recovery? Aside from the IBEX of course, which like every other liquidity-bubble dependent indicator is merely reflecting the roughly $3 trillion in annual global liquidity injections by the world's central banks?

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:01 | 4097537 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Sovereign Debt Crisis 2.0  

Coming 2014

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:06 | 4097555 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

When there are no real options left to do but lie.

Kinda reminds me of that guy.........."Uhhh, that hot chick just like put out because I have this like ginormous cock man..... She couldn't get her hands off me......"

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:12 | 4097574 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

There has never been a better time to buy a new Spanish vacation home!

New residential development on the east coast of Majorca near Porto Cristo, naturally beautiful area, crystal clear waters of the Mediterranean, sandy beaches on the surrounding coves, wide array of amenities include water sports and golf, idyllic lifestyle, only 58 km from the Palma de Majorca international airport with easy access to main European cities, 2 bedroom apartments in private estate on the edge of the Cala Anguila beach, lush gardens, flowers, native plants and trees, swimming pool.

404 Cala Anguila Porto Cristo, Porto Cristo Majorca

2 beds | 2 bath | 1061 Sq. Ft.

$327,000

 

 

Spiderman towels not included.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:14 | 4097583 Indian_Goldsmith
Indian_Goldsmith's picture

 

Hola Senor Bull :)

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:17 | 4097591 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'GO AWAY! 'BATIN!'

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:18 | 4097593 Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

The recovery may not be on track, but the hype certainly is.  The Spanish Recovery Narrative is almost one year old, so it is a good time to review Spain's economy and debunk the narrative.

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2013/10/28/update-spanish-recovery-narrative/

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 12:01 | 4097791 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

"peddling snake oily hope"

Boris would say... "not oily hope but Yak spudge hope"

Please correct me if I take poetic license.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 12:19 | 4097902 Carl Popper
Carl Popper's picture

Spain and the Euro can limp along another 10 to 20 years. Finally when ZH readership drops to 50 diehards and even the Tylers have capitulated it will go boom.

Everyone loses in a collapse with 90 percent losing most everything. Contrarians always capitulate after watching a process go on far longer than they anticipated. Nobody can win.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:18 | 4097594 orez65
orez65's picture

"There has never been a better time to buy a new Spanish vacation home!"

At $308/square foot?

You are out of your fucking mind!

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:25 | 4097615 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Quality construction! 
No expense is spared for the interior design
and surface treatments.

Just a few moments stroll
from the beautiful beach.

Hurry!  Call now!
While inventory is still available!

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:32 | 4097639 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I have been to Palma de Majorca. Its mostly Brits who can't swim and fat Germans in speedos fighting over lawn chairs.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 14:59 | 4098516 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

ROTF, LMAO.  So true, so true. 

Have you tried the "Naturist" beaches, that are so favored by the Germans, Dutch and Scandinavians?  No 'Mericans, Brits or real Catholics, of course, as they don't like to show "naughty bits".  ;-)

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:38 | 4097668 knukles
knukles's picture

If Janet gets her way the Fedll be monetizing this shit, too.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 12:20 | 4097904 Nothing but the...
Nothing but the truth.'s picture

@ Horseman - still overpriced - in a year from now you'll buy that place for 25 % less.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:14 | 4097577 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

DIJSSELBLOEM: SPANISH RECOVERY IS ON TRACK

I think he meant to say ON THE TRACKS...

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 12:14 | 4097872 redux2redux
redux2redux's picture

...and the light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 12:17 | 4097888 Nothing but the...
Nothing but the truth.'s picture

The same applies to all other European economies. In the UK we are bombarded with daily government propaganda about the economy " accelerating, bouncing back, turned the corner " Osborne is a dinkum clueless dickhead , who raves about the economic rebound , which is a paltry 0 ,8 % better than last year. What he fails to mention is that GDP is still below 2007 levels.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:01 | 4097538 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Thanks Tyler for Posting it,

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:03 | 4097543 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Apparently the NSA is trying to find the recovery too by spying on 60 million Spaniards.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:36 | 4097658 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I wonder what the cost of that was, not including data storage. Might have been enough to fuel a small spark in the Spanish economy.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:46 | 4097700 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They sure do waste a lot of money to find out who is screwing who. They could just as easily go to one of the free on-line porn sites an call it a day. But this is government, and they aren't happy if they aren't spending.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:03 | 4097545 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

IT'S BECAUSE OF THE NSA!! THEY DID THIS!!! PHONE TAPS AND REAL ESTATE CRASHES GO HAND IN HAND! OR EAR TO EAR IN THIS CASE!!

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:07 | 4097559 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Bring more Spiderman´s Towel¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡

Next bank to fail :

 

BANCO POPULAR. POP SM EQUITY  TIC TAC TIC TAC

BANKIA 2.0 = BANCO POPULAR/PASTOR

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:06 | 4097553 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Spanish Equities Recovery has just been manipulated by " FLOWS ORDERS ON THE 10yrs bond" which has made long term bond reequilibrate to mid 4%,

So easy talking - Just pure bullshit Recovery

Nothing has changed in Spain, furthermore things are going worse in terms of: Higher Net debt, Lower affordable Ratios, Negative consumption rates, Infinite Cooked Books, False Frozen Covered Bond markets, False Audit by Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger.

Unemployment and salaries wont recover without DEBT AND DEPOSIT HAIRCUTS...ITS IMPOSSIBLE¡

 

SO again This is going to crash a this time DRAGHI WONT WIN THE GAME, COS NOBODY IS PLAYING ON THE OTHER SIDE, ALGOS WILL LOSE TOO.

THE GAME IS RIGGED AND OVER.

 

SPANISH SHORT SELLER.

 

IBEX BACK TO 5.500 

 

(NEW JAPANIZATION COMING IN SPAIN 20 YEARS DECAY)

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:51 | 4097735 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

But, but, but their Q3 GDP "surged" 0.1%!

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 12:31 | 4097952 befuddled
befuddled's picture

Is that a green shoot of recovery by the pool?

Even the IMF's dropped the est. growth for 2014 all the way from a towering 0.9pc to, er, zero, vs 2.6pc for the US. But don't you dare doubt that 3Q 0.1pc growth in Spain. Spain's numbers are always trustworthy, particularly if blessed by Brussels.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:07 | 4097560 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Once everyone  knows The Secret, these number wil be factual. No?

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:13 | 4097576 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

For all of you not following me on twitter.....  I just tried to speak  to Tim Cook and they told me to fuck off.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:16 | 4097588 kurzdump
kurzdump's picture

Bad luck, try again and ask for Steve Jobs.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 12:00 | 4097783 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Just use the Ouija app!

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 12:00 | 4097786 RSloane
RSloane's picture

... and bring a candle and a glowing crystal ball.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:24 | 4097602 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Just ask Joe Bologna of Deutsch Bank, he'll tell you that construction is up along with builder sentiment.

In other words, supply is going to pull demand (he said that this morning on CNBC).

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:44 | 4097696 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Joe Izuzu's cousin?

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:20 | 4097605 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

If I had some dough I might bottom fish a place north of Lisbon, some great surf towns up there.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 12:23 | 4097917 Carl Popper
Carl Popper's picture

Lol. We are not even close to a bottom yet.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 13:13 | 4098119 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

You are probably right, but a lot of things are close to replacement cost.  So now it's going to be about the desperation of sellers vs the desire of buyers i guess. 

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:29 | 4097632 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Bill, please note that I said, "Be greedy when there is blood in the streets"...not "be stupid when there is blood in the streets" - Uncle Warren

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:31 | 4097637 Randoom Thought
Randoom Thought's picture

Maybe Spain should have their own currency so that they are not beggar-slaves at the ECB door. "Please Mr. Technocrat, create some more currency for me so that I can make it flow through my economy like the Obumble does in Amerika."

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:35 | 4097655 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

We are NSA, we are your best friend......

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:42 | 4097686 luckylongshot
luckylongshot's picture

Having just got back from Spain, the area where progress seems to be occurring is that more spanish are realising that it is the private bankers they should be blaming for what happened rather than other Euro countries. The talk of reccovery is only being taken seriously by the bankster controlled press and politicians as the problems are systemic and exponential rather than cyclical. This means there is no chance of improvement with time, just continued deterioration. The banksters responsible are starting to make the famous tyrants of history look ok.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:46 | 4097706 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

So, Spanish NPL's are all taken care of...

That's good.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:47 | 4097710 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

what exactly is the narrative here? that Spain is worse than in the doldrums because mortgage applications are down? in my own experience in Spain, this is mainly because "the horse is not drinking", i.e. lots of people who own a vacation house or apartment in Spain not only aren't buying or selling, they are paying back their mortgages. which in other places it's seen as "hell coming to earth"

and when I say lots of people I'm hinting to what really fuelled that humungous building frenzy that Spain had for long time: Germans, French, Brits, BeNeLuxers and so on. many of them regard that little property not only as a "spot in the sun", but also as a hedge against inflation. and by expecting inflation - the mortgage market being different than in the US - they don't want to be eaten up by raising rates in the future

now of course the Spanish gov could do what the British is doing, i.e. subzidize the market to keep the prices up. yet what is seen as necessary in the UK (a primary residence market) might be still seen as not necessary in a Spanish market dominated by secondary residences

btw, who the hell listens to what Dijsselbloem says? the algos?

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 12:53 | 4098044 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

you're not going to get inflation. another spot for Tesla, Solar City and Nissan though I guess. What a scam...the whole property bubble. The only failure is the "failure to re-inflate." I guess. The whole euro/oil trade reeks of manipulation to me. Build all the homes you want...we've become a society of friggin' towel holders.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 11:48 | 4097717 Devotional
Devotional's picture

meanwhile in Portugal ... the vice Prime Minister stated that the country is weeks away from ending the technical recession. You gotta love these shitface lying bullshit eating pig polticians huh?

Was the description enough or not?

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 12:13 | 4097861 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

I checked - these apartments are literally in the middle of nowhere. 58 km to the airport - you can't get much further away. So $300K+ for an isolated little development on the bad coast of Majorca - are there any greater fools left?

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 13:26 | 4098174 thethirdcoast
thethirdcoast's picture

Yes, two of the idiots I work with are the greater fools. They believe they are going to land a nice, spacious holiday flat near the water in Valencia for around $100k.

Fear not, they've read all the "horror stories" and won't get taken for everything and the shirt off their backs.

Right, a couple Anglo schmucks are going to pull the bargain of the century in a country where local lawyers don't reliably understand the real estate transaction process.

Mon, 10/28/2013 - 15:06 | 4098558 che
che's picture

spanish real estate is already rebounding. however you gotta make sure that you buy into smth on the basis of more than just a nice picture made 6 years back. lot of this stuff will just be dilapidated forever.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!